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HORSES PENALISED FOR NOT WINNING RUNNING TODAY.
HORSES PENALISED FOR NOT WINNING RUNNING TODAY.
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Hunt Ball was a broken Horse a year ago and sold for a sixpence. He needed what he got good training and care and attention and a lot of credit goes to the trainer for that .No one can be sure how good this horse is or will be, as progress has to peak but this horse has surprised all and good luck to win in the future.
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FULL PRICE RANGE 80BETS 54 WINS 26 LOST 67.50%WIN S/R ROI 9.41% -5%COMM
 4.0 OR UNDER 63 BETS 48 WINS 20 LOST 68.25%WIN S/R ROI +25.98% -5%COMM  3.0 OR UNDER 48 BETS 30 WINS 18 LOST 62.50%WIN S/R ROI +18.22% -5%COMM  2.0 OR UNDER 22 BETS 14 WINS 8 LOST 63.63%WIN S/R ROI +38.00% -5%COMM  |
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I DID IT AGAIN JESUS....4.0 OR UNDER 63 BETS 43 WINS 20 LOST...
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AND BY THE WAY I WILL BE LAYING THESE HORSES PERSONALLY AT 4.0 OR UNDER FROM NOW ON.I WILL STILL PUBLISH FULL RESULTS AT ALL ODDS AND BREAK THEM DOWN EVERY WEEK LIKE BELOW....ANYONE TAKING ANY OF THIS ON BOARD SHOULD DO THE SAME AND IF UR REALLY CAUTIOUS GO WITH 2.0 OR UNDER WITH PERCENTAGE BANK STAKING.I SUGGEST 1 OR 2%.SMALL STEPS STILL MAKE MANY MILES, GRASSHOPPERS.I WILL POST 500 SELECTIONS WHICH WILL TAKE 5/6 WEEKS DEPENDING HOW I FEEL ON SUNDAYS.IT ONLY TAKES ABOUT 30 MINS A DAY TO MAKE SELECTIONS.AFTER WEEK 2 I MAY CONSIDER ADDING HORSES OUT OF THE HANDICAP WITHOUT CLAIMERS RIDING THEM.USUALLY WHEN I CONSIDER SOMETHING I DO IT.ONE OF MANY WEAKNESSES.
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Using caps lock is another.
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I DO IT TO ANNOY PPL SADDO..IT SEEMS TO WORK
i will change that as of now..u see |
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It certainly works here, ykamc, good luck with the project.
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thanks saddo,much appreciated
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GL cow with the new go faster version
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thanks mad,
yeah i need bundles of selections...i hope its not a faster way to losing.goodluck to u today.at least the weather is great |
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Adzal
 ty |
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TODAYS RESULTS -5%COMM +7.53
ALL PRICES 400 LING KISS A PRINCE 2ND LOST PL SP 2.70 + 5.83 500 LING ESTONIA 3RD LOST PL SP 1.37 + 5.46 500 LING ABILITYNDELIVERY 2ND LOST PL SP 1.71 + 4.75 320 LUDL AJZAL 3RD WIN PL SP 1.64 + 5.70 320 LUDL ESTEEM 4TH WIN PL SP 1.90 + 6.65 350 LUDL UP TO THE MARK 1ST LOST PL SP 1.51 + 6.14 310 TAUT DOURYNA 1ST LOST PL SP 1.34 + 5.80 410 TAUT OH KHEE FELL? WIN PL SP 2.02 + 6.75 610 KEMP BOUNTIFUL CATCH UNPL WIN PL SP 4.73* + 7.70 625 LEOP SPUNKY UNPL WIN PL SP 4.57* + 8.65 RISE TO GLORY WAS A NON RUNNER OVERALL P/L +1.12PTS 5WINS 5 LOSSES 10BETS 50% WIN S/R OVERALL TOTALS 59WINS 31LOSSES 90BETS 59W/90 65.55% WIN S/R +8.65PTS PRICE RANGE 4.0-1.01 TODAYS RESULTS(AS ABOVE WITHOUT ASTERISKS) 4.0 OR UNDER -0.78PTS(+16.37) TOTAL + 15.59PTS TOTALS 3WINS 5 LOSSES 3W/8 37.5%WIN S/R 46WINS 25LOSSES 71BETS 46W/71 64.78%WIN S/R |
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TOMMORROW WEIGHTWATCHERS
FFOS LAS 250 MISSION COMPLETE +4LBS 2ND LTO PRESENTED +7LBS 2ND LTO DERWYN PRIDE +4LBS 2ND LTO 400 ARTURO UNO +4LBS 2ND LTO 430 TICKATICK +7LBS 2ND LTO SUPREME DE PAILLE +16LBS SINCE LAST WIN NEWCASTLE 240 ON GOSSAMER WINGS +2LBS 3RD LTO TRANSACT +1LB 3RD LTO 420 KINGS CHOIRISTER +4LBS 3RD LTO DENY +1LB 6TH LTO 525 TARTAN TIGER +6LBS 2ND LTO HOTGROVE BOY +6LBS 2ND LTO BROWNEYES BLUE +13LBS SINCE LASTWIN WOLVERHAMPTON 335 CAPTAIN SCOOBY +1LB 5TH LTO MAMBO SPIRIT +11LBS SINCE LAST WIN 440 KOKO LOCA +1LB 2ND LTO 545 AVON SUPREME +2LBS 2ND LTO LIMERICK 530 LANDSDOWNE +1LB 3RD LTO DIAMOND FIRE +1LB 4TH LTO 705 NORAH STARR +1LB 2ND LTO CASIMIR +3LBS 2ND LTO KEMPTON 625 STRIDING EDGE +2LBS 6TH LTO BEGGERS BELIEF +9LBS SINCE LASTWIN THE BLUE DOG +9LBS SINCE LASTWIN 725 MINISTRY +1LB 2ND LTO THE ABSENT MARE +10LBS SINCE LAST WIN 825 COLOUR GUARD +10LBS SINCE LASTWIN 27 SELECTIONS  |
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ykickamoocow
Re. Mambo Spirit 3.35 Wolverhampton, noted above as +11 lbs since last win. Wasn't last win off 67 (in a claimer) on 20/12/11 (4:15 Kempton)? If so, as it runs off 74 today it is only +7. Would you agree? |
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hi top2rated,
i take on board what you say but i am assessing horses on their last handicap win.and mambos spirit is 11lb higher since his last handicap win in june 2010.i do add horses who are beaten in non handicaps last time out and penalised if their next run is a handicap but that falls under horses penalised for not winning LTO.mambo spirit falls into the category of horses 8lb+ higher than their last winning hcap mark and who didnt win last time out....its 12lb+ for jumpers i will make mistakes no doubt so its good u pointed that out...thanks for ur input... |
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sorry toprated i see i didnt make the handicap part clear when starting with these selections...i just said highest winning mark..
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Message received and understood.
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TODAYS RESULTS -5%COMM +8.65
ANY PRICE RANGE ON GOSSAMER WINGS UNPL WIN PL SP 1.88 + 9.60 TRANSACT UNPL WIN PL SP 2.66 + 10.55 MISSIONCOMPLETE PLAC LOST PL SP 1.80 + 9.75 PRESENTED UNPL WIN PL SP 1.44 + 10.70 DERWYNPRIDE UNPL WIN PL SP 2.26 + 11.65 MAMBOS SPIRIT UNPL WIN PL SP 6.87* + 12.60 CAPTAINSCOOBY UNPL WIN PL SP 4.06* + 13.55 ARTUROUNO UNPL WIN PL SP 2.63 + 14.50 DENY UNPL WIN PL SP 4.14* + 15.55 KINGSCHOIRISTER PLAC LOST PL SP 2.47 + 14.08 TICKATACK PLAC LOST PL SP 1.77 + 13.31 SUPREMEDEPAILLE UNPL WIN PL SP 12.14*+ 14.26 KOKOLOCA PLAC LOST PL SP 1.65 + 13.61 TARTANTIGER PLAC LOST PL SP 1.86 + 12.75 HOTGROVEBOY UNPL WIN PL SP 2.46 + 13.70 AVONSUPREME UNPL WIN PL SP 1.99 + 14.65 LANDSDOWNE PLAC LOST PL SP 3.76 + 11.89 DIAMONDFIRE UNPL WIN PL SP 5.70* + 12.84 STRIDINGEDGE UNPL WIN PL SP 1.76 + 13.79 BEGGERSBELIEF UNPL WIN PL SP 1.62 + 14.74 THEBLUEDOG PLAC LOST PL SP 3.00 + 12.74 NORAHSTARR UNPL WIN PL SP 4.43* + 13.69 CASIMIRROAD UNPL WIN PL SP 5.01* + 14.64 THEABSENTMARE PLAC LOST PL SP 1.50 + 14.14 MINISTRY UNPL WIN PL SP 2.52 + 15.09 DAILY P/L +6.44PTS 17WIN 8 LOSSES 25BETS 68%WIN S/R OVERALL TOTAL 115 SELECTIONS 76 WINS 39 LOSSES 76W/115 66.08% WIN S/R 4.0 OR UNDER PRICE RANGE RESULTS -5%COMM +15.59 SAME AS ABOVE WITHOUT ASTERISKS -0.31PTS +15.28 10WINS 8 LOSSES 18 BETS 10W/18 55.55% WIN S/R TOTALS 56W/89 62.92% WIN S/R COLOUR GUARD TO BE ADDED |
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TOMMORROWS WEIGHTWATCHERS
LINGFIELD 430 MISTER GREEN +5LBS 3RD LTO 505 GABRIALS BOUNTY +1LB 2ND LTO NEWCASTLE 440 STORMION +3LBS 2ND LTO OVER AND ABOVE +1LB 4TH LTO 515 PAMAK D'AIRY +2LBS 2ND LTO TEARS FROM HEAVEN +12LBS SINCE LAST HCAP WIN UR LTO 545 REBEL DANCER +13LBS SINCE LAST HCAP WIN 7TH LTO WETHERBY 350 QOUBILAI +5LBS 2ND LTO 420 LADY ANNE NEVIL** +4LBS 2ND LTO +19LBS SINCE LAST HCAPWIN WOLVERHAMPTON 825 METHAALY +3LBS 2ND LTO 855 JUSTBOOKIEDOTCOM +9LBS SINCE LAST HCAP WIN 12TH LTO DUNDALK 845 FOOTPRINT +1LB 2ND LTO KATEEVA +14LBS SINCE LAST HCAP WIN 6TH LTO TSAR PAUL +11LBS SINCE LAST HCAP WIN 6TH LTO 14 SELECTIONS **LADY ANNE NEVIL HAS BEEN PENALISED 13LBS FOR FINISHING 2ND ON HER LAST 2 RUNS.. BLOOD BOILING NOW.ITS NOT AS IF SHE IS GETTING ANY YOUNGER..ITS A WONDER OWNERS ARE LEAVING THE GAME. |
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COLOUR GUARD UNPL WIN PL SP 1.30
+16.04ptsdaily p/l +7.39pts 18w/26 69.23%win s/r totals 77w/116 66.37% win s/r 4.0 or under +16.23pts daily p/l +0.64pts 11w/19 57.897 win s/r overall totals 57w/90 63.33% win s/r its been a long day..... |
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wd kicker. u have a lot of deciples.
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thanks newman,
small steps make many miles..on we go..27 selections on a thursday,never to b equalled again... |
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Few steps forward, few back
GL |
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why was colour guard added, please ? He is due to go up 5lbs but today was off 85, same as last time.
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hi kefir.
colour guard was 10lbs higher than his last winning handicap mark and finished 2nd last time out. if a horse is 8lbs+ higher than its last winning handicap mark and gets beaten last run it is a selection on the flat...for jumps its 12lb+..if it won last run it is not a selection... the other rule is if a horse gets raised without winning last time out..some horses have 4 different ratings for flat turf, all weather,hurdles and chases..i only look at the rating for the disipline..hurdle for hurdle,chase for chase...some horses are 14lbs lower over hurdles than chases..a good example of this is GALAXY ROCK..his chase rating is 144 and his hurdle rating is 130.....anyway colour guard is in a bad position after tonight,up another 5lbs..u wont see him on all weather for a while..be interesting where johnston places him next..i didnt watch race,ran a shocker.something might show up if it hasnt already... |
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Have you missed one at Lingfield tomorrow, kicker? In the 4.30 Snow Trooper is 16lbs higher than when he last won on an artificial surface.
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hi topnag,
it was 50-50 whether to put him in or not..SNOW TROOPER(70) won a handicap on turf off 63 16 months after that a/w hcap win off 54.i would consider this its most recent hcap win..if he won the newbury hcap off 62 i would of put him in on the 8lb+ rule.but i considered him 7lb higher than last handicap win...it was a tricky one but i would always go with most recent handicap win for a horse like this..i tend not to distinguish between handicaps be they on the all weather or turf.i do distingush the ratings for different surfaces though.this makes it easier to select horses quickly without going to much into form.after all i am looking at every runner running that day in handicaps.with DONCASTER starting tomorrow you will find lots of horses coming off all weather runs.they will have higher turf ratings no doubt.i will work from that turf rating.CROWN COUNSEL in the first at donny has an all weather rating of 85 but a turf rating of 89.he ran off 86 on the all weather last time out so he is down 1lb for that discipline and down 2lbs since his last turf run where he ran off 91.it might look like he is up 3lbs without winning but he is not.as i say it can be tricky especially at the start of flat season. thanks for pointing the horse out topnag.if anything it might help people with the minefield that is handicap ratings. it definitely helps me anyway. |
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rating= discipline=turf/aw/hurdle/chase
hcap=most recent flat/aw hcap=most recent chase/hurdle that could save a lot of writing |
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You say that is was 50-50 whether to include Snow Trooper or not. I think that all qualifiers should be included, regardless of what you think of the value of the form. The reason is this. If you are going to have a sample size of say 500 events then you will skew your results if you start appplying filters at this stage. Put all the qualifying selections into your sample and after you have your 500 results then you can start putting a line through the parts of the selection process that did not work. It should then be simple to say, for instance, no Irish races. No form over 12 months old. No mares. Or whatever. Of course that is when you will be accused of backfitting.
In the meantime why not flag up any dodgy selections with a Moocow Squiggle? I am following this thread with interest. Keep it up! |
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Snow Trooper wins at 13/2.
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good performance off a lay off...in reply to ur previous post topnag i will be selecting 500 horses in each price range..4.0 and under and all prices...i wont be adding horses that i feel dont qualify like SNOW TROOPER
 .and u can see why.. |
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Had a great day laying the shorties thus far
TY |
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the day is still in session scaredmoney.....we await the end
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TOMORROWS WEIGHTWATCHERS
DAY 11 DONCASTER 205 WEAPONOFCHOICE +2LBS 2ND LTO PERFECTCRACKER +13LBS SINCE LAST HCAP WIN 3RD LTO REDVERS +6LBS 3RD LTO +8LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN MONTRAS +1LB 4TH LTO +13LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN KAYGEEBEE +3LBS 2ND LTO MIAMI GATOR +9LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN 3RD LTO ARABIANSPIRIT +11LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN UNPL LTO 315 ETONFOREVER +11LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN 3RD LTO STARTRIGHT +13LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN 3RD LTO PINTURA +19LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN 9TH LTO ASKAUD +10LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN 6TH LTO 455 YOJIMBO +4LBS 2ND LTO +12LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN 530 GOODBOYJACKSON +12LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN 4TH LTO 605 YORKSTERPRINCE +7LBS(+2) 4TH LTO STRATFORD 355 DREAMBROOKLADY +17LBS SINCE LAST HCAPWIN 5TH LTO UTTOX 230 MRBACHSTER +2LBS 2ND LTO PRINCEFREDDIE +5LBS 2ND LTO 410 RORYBOY +4LBS 3RD LTO FENTARA +14LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN 3RD LTO KEMPTON 330 BRUNSTON +1LBS 3RD LTO +8LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN ROMEOMONTAGUE +11LBS SINCE LASTHCAP WIN 4TH LTO 440 NEWLEYF +3LBS 3RD LTO WEHAVEADREAM +2LBS 7TH LTO 510 MAJESTICZAFEEN +2LBS 2ND LTO +9LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN NAVAN 345 TABLEMOUNTAIN +1LB 3RD LTO SEANAIRGEAD +2LBS 2ND LTO 450 BROOKSVILLE +4LBS 3RD LTO ALADDINSCAVE +14LBS SINCE LASTHCAPWIN 11TH LTO 28 SELECTIONS YOU DEFINITELY KNOW ITS THE START OF THE FLAT SEASON |
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Brace yourself ykickamoocow.....
Nine meetings scheduled for Bank Holiday Monday, 9th April. |
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yeah i feel like the handicapper
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DAY 10 RESULTS -5%COMM STARTING P/L +16.04pts
ANY PRICE RANGE MISTER GREEN UNPL WIN PL SP 1.79 +16.99 GABRIALS BOUNTY 2ND LOST PL SP 3.18 +14.81 OVER AND ABOVE 2ND LOST PL SP 1.94 +13.87 STORMION UNPL WIN PL SP 1.61 +14.82 PAMAK D'AIRY UNPL WIN PL SP 2.30 +15.77 TEARSFROMHEAVEN UNPL WIN PL SP 1.70 +16.72 REBEL DANCER UNPL WIN PL SP 2.24 +17.67 QUOBILAL 1ST LOST PL SP 1.40 +17.27 METHAALY UNPL WIN PL SP 2.88 +18.22 FOOTPRINT 2ND LOST PL SP 2.22 +17.00 TSAR PAUL UNPL WIN PL SP 3.25 +17.95 JUSTBOOKIEDOTCOM UNPL WIN PL SP 3.41 +18.90 KATEEVA UNPL WIN PL SP 4.22* +19.85 LADY ANNE NEVIL UNPL WIN PL SP 4.38* +20.80 DAILY P/L +4.76pts 14BETS 10WINS 4LOSSES 10W/14 71.42% WIN S/R OVERALL TOTALS 87WINS/130BETS 66.92% WIN% S/R 4.0 OR UNDER SAME AS ABOVE MINUS ASTERISKS STARTING P/L +16.23pts DAILY P/L + 2.86 OVERALL P/L +19.09 12 BETS 8W/12 66.66% WIN% S/R OVERALL S/R 102 BETS 65W/102 63.72% WIN S/R |
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Just realised why my figures of +2 never matched yours
I was working off 4.0 as full BFSP not place price Worth a look from your side maybe ? I had as 'winners' Mr Green Stormion Rebel dancer Loser - Quobilal Maybe a factor in for odds on ? Under 1.5 leave ? Should be interesting with your flat figures Based on months ago  Will leave those to play out for a while GL |
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it worked out ok for u madhatter..if ur win layin these selections i suggest u do as ur doing and lay them to price limits.there was a 40.0 winner last week.
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today there was a great example of how a horses handicap mark can make all the difference.of course their is 2 sides to this story and thankfully it comes from the same race.the 4.20 at wetherby shows both sides of what effect the handicapper can have on a horses chance of winning.as stated in a previous post here LADY ANNE NEVIL was raised 13lbs for finishing 2nd on its last 2 runs.on a mark 19lbs higher than her last winning handicap mark she was given little chance by the handicapper and duly finished second last.on the other hand HI DANCER was dropping down the handicap.on a mark of 105 3lbs lower than its last winning hacp mark of 108 and with the stable claimimg jockey taking another 10lbs off this was set up for a big run.he duly won by an easy 10 lenghts and a nice touch was landed in this household.sometimes consistantly reading hcap ratings pays off big time..
its one angle i love to watch out for... |