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HORSES PENALISED FOR NOT WINNING RUNNING TODAY.
HORSES PENALISED FOR NOT WINNING RUNNING TODAY.
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ELLIE IN THE PINK UNPL WIN PL SP 3.30 +7.30
25W/37 WIN% S/R 67.56% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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TODAYS RESULTS -5%COMM
RAILWAY DILLION UNPL WIN PL SP 2.34 +8.25 MOONLIGHT DRIVE UNPL WIN PL SP 2.22 +9.20 SO FINE 2ND LOST PL SP 2.78 +7.42 MR SYNTAX 1ST LOST PL SP 3.23 +5.19 FREDDIE BROWN UNPL WIN PL SP 1.94 +6.14 FOUR FIDDLERS UNPL WIN PL SP 5.70 +7.09 VIN DE ROY UNPL WIN PL SP 1.60 +8.04 KINGSCROFT UNPL WIN PL SP 1.83 +8.99 GEORGR GURU 1ST LOST PL SP 1.44 +8.55 GHAREER 1ST LOST PL SP 2.58 +6.97 CONVINCING UNPL WIN PL SP 3.43 +7.92 LAYLINE UNPL WIN PL SP 1.90 +8.87 MIDNIGHTSPIRIT UNPL WIN PL SP ?.?? +9.82 KENTFORDGREYLADY AND MAN OF PRINCIPLES NON RUNNERS. TOTALS .13 SELECTIONS +2.25PTS 9WINS 4 LOSSES 9/13 69.26% WIN S/R OVERALL TOTAL 34WINS 16 LOSSES 50 SELECTIONS 34/50 68% WIN S/R TOTAL P/L +9.82 | |||||||||||||||||||||
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9/13 winners today.
pm sent  | |||||||||||||||||||||
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TOMMORROWS WEIGHTWATCHERS
320 DOWN PINK GODDESS +1LB 2ND LTO 350 DOWN TALEB +2LBS 3RD LTO 420 DOWN GOODLUCKCHUCK +4LBS 2ND LTO 255 WINC EDLOMOND +2LBS 2ND LTO 255 WINC GREAT KICKER +5LBS 2ND LTO 325 WINC CESIUM +3LBS 2ND LTO 355 WINC PERPETUALLY +4LBS 3RD LTO 355 WINC MINELLA SPECIAL +3LBS 2ND LTO 425 WINC DOURYNA +1LB 3RD LTO 500 CURR DEFINING YEAR +1LB 2ND LTO 10 SELECTIONS/ALL PLACE LAYS BSP.  | |||||||||||||||||||||
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PLACE LAYING THESE SELECTIONS TO FIXED LIABILITY OR % LIABILITY OF BANK WOULD MAKE A LOT OF SENSE LONGTERM.MORE PROFIT FROM THE SHORT PRICES.I WILL KEPT TO LEVEL STAKES TILL THIS ENDS.
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Good choice to switch to place laying after todays winners
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a lot of people are asking me how i pick the horses and where i get the info,, so to avoid many PM replys i will post this only once.
I get info from the racing post site.just click the OR tab under the betting forecast.you dont even have to log into the site,its free for now  ..compare last run with todays hcap mark.if there is a rise without a win thats the horse.just make sure its in the same disipline and always a handicap.handicaps only.make sure the rating is for hurdles if its a hurdle race and chase if its a chase race,as horses can switch between both codes.also flat horses have different hcap ratings on the all weather compared to turf racing.if a horse gets raised in a non handicap without winning last time out(LTO) and then runs in a handicap next run it is a selection.you can factor in other negatives for selections by using stats tab.i am putting in every horse at moment.i would intend over time to not include +1Lb rises as i am guessing they will be placed more often.i could be wrong of course.we will see.i envisage a limit of 3lbs plus for selection.i would also probably include horses that are 14lbs plus higher than their last winning run.but this would come later down the line.best of luckkicker. please bet responsibly  | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Thank you very kindly for the info, kicker. It does seem that you get better results with a minimum of a 3lb rise. Another angle I've looked at from your selections is only including horses which were unplaced in their previous run and have gone up 3+lbs. Good luck with this system, it looks like you may be on to something!
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thanks sweet,
yes patterns will appear over time.some already are appearing.over my target of 500 selections patterns will be stronger.to early for any conclusions.horses finishing out of 1st 3 and penalised will limit selections longterm. | |||||||||||||||||||||
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kicker, what I have noticed is that the ir price is usually pretty low, and this is what I am looking at, ie. putting in a short ir lay, as the extra weight shows in the latter parts of the races. gl and tx again
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another angle i guess newman,lots of non runners today which doesnt help.if timeform/betfair posted place s.p.'s now i could post results.always on a sunday.slow.
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BECAUSE TIMEFORM/BETFAIR STILL HAVNT POSTED ANY PLACE S.P. RETURNS FOR ANY RACING TODAY I CANT POST TODAYS RESULTS.WHILE I WAIT FOR THIS INFO HERE ARE TOMORROWS WEIGHTWATCHERS
245 LING ATHLETIC +3LBS 2ND LTO 245 LING PURPLE AFFAIR +3LBS 9TH LTO 315 LING MR FROSTY +1LB 3RD LTO 415 LING STRICTLY PINK +2LBS 3RD LTO 445 LING EFISTORM +1LB 2ND LTO 515 LING ESCAOE ARTIST +1LB 4TH LTO 230 TOWC MOSSMANN GEORGE +1LB 2ND LTO 400 TOWC CRAIGLANDS +2LBS 2ND LTO 403 TOWC FATHER PROBUS +2LBS 3RD LTO 430 TOWC LADY IDA +4LBS P.U.LTO 500 TOWC BOHEMIAN ROCK +2LBS 3RD LTO 11 SELECTIONS. | |||||||||||||||||||||
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YESTERDAYS RESULTS -5%COMM +9.82
GREAT KICKER 2ND LOST PL SP 3.49 + 7.33 CESIUM 1ST LOST PL SP 1.62 + 6.71 MINELLA SPECIAL 3RD LOST PL SP 1.70 + 6.01 TALEB 2ND LOST PL SP 1.85 + 5.16 DOURYNA 3RD WIN PL SP 1.90 + 6.11 PINK GODDESS 7TH WIN PL SP 2.90 + 7.06 GOOGLUCKCHUCK U.R. WIN PL SP 2.51 + 8.01 PERPETUALLY FELL WIN PL SP 1.60 + 8.96 EDLOMOND P.U WIN PL SP 2.10 + 9.91 DEFINING YEAR 8TH WIN PL SP 3.73 +10.86 6WINS 4LOSSES 10 SELECTIONS 6W/10 60%WIN S/R +1.04PTS TOTALS 40WINS 20LOST 60SELECTIONS 40W/60 66.66%WIN S/R | |||||||||||||||||||||
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UPDATED RESULT FROM NEWBURY 23RD MAR
OSCAR CLOSE P.U WIN PL SP 5.10 +11.81 41W/61 67.21% WIN S/R MISSED THIS ONE  | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Interesting topic ykickamoocow.
Hope you don't mind me commenting on something Newmanix wrote yesterday namely "as the extra weight shows in the latter parts of the races" It doesn't automatically follow that a horse will carry extra weight simply because it is running off a higher OR compared to that in its last race. A good recent example from the place lays to date would be So Fine who ran on Saturday.
Although the class of race is the same as his last run the horse was actually raised in class (compare the Top wt ORs above) so he ended up carrying less weight than in his previous race. | |||||||||||||||||||||
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good point toprated,i agree with you completely, you could also say it would of carried 11-02 if it wasnt penalised last time out.i am going on hcap ratings not weight as such and i see your point .i find the handicapping of horses a great subject.i am running this raw and just putting in every horse to see where it goes.
and please comment away..its very welcome..thanks again | |||||||||||||||||||||
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TOPRATED
JUST TO MAKE A POINT THE CLASS WAS NOT THE SAME,YES IT WAS A CLASS 3 HCAP BUT ONE WAS AN 0-135HCAP AND THE OTHER WAS AN 0-140HCAP.THIS WAS A RISE IN CLASS FOR SO FINE. AND IT WOULD OF BEEN RUNNING AGAINST A BETTER HORSE AND HENCE THE LESS WEIGHT.WHEN LOOKING AT HCAP RACES ALWAYS CHECK NOT ONLY THE CLASS BUT WHAT BAND ITS IN. | |||||||||||||||||||||
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TODAYS RESULTS -5%COMM +11.81
MOSSMANN GEORGE 3RD LOST PL SP 5.32 +7.49  CRAIGLANDS 2ND LOST PL SP 2.68 +5.81 STRICTLY PINK 1ST LOST PL SP 2.34 +4.47 ATHLETIC UNPL WIN PL SP 4.80 +5.42  PURPLE AFFAIR UNPL WIN PL SP 3.05 +6.37 MR FROSTY UNPL WIN PL SP 2.82 +7.32 EFISTORM UNPL WIN PL SP 3.55 +8.27 ESCAPE ARTIST UNPL WIN PL SP 4.50 +9.22 FATHER PROBUS UNPL WIN PL SP 2.57 +10.17 LADY IDA UNPL WIN PL SP 3.55 +11.12 BOHEMIAN ROCK UNPL WIN PL SP 5.50 +12.07 TOTALS 8WINS 3LOSSES 11 SELECTIONS 8W/11 72.72% WIN S/R P/L+0.27 OVERALL TOTALS 49W/72 68.05%WIN S/R TOTAL P/L+12.07PTS TO 1£ LEVEL STAKES | |||||||||||||||||||||
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MINOR ADJUSTMENT PROFIT TODAY WAS +0.26PTS
SOME DAY I WILL GET IT RIGHT  | |||||||||||||||||||||
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TOMMORROWS WEIGHTWATCHERS
310 HERE RIDDLEOFTHESANDS +4LBS 2ND LTO 220 MRAS LANGLEY +5LBS 2ND LTO 220 MRAS THEODORE LAMB +1LB 3RD LTO 320 MRAS COOL OPERATION +4LBS U.R LTO 420 MRAS CHARLES +4LBS 2ND LTO 420 MRAS CARLITOS SPIRIT +4LBS 2ND LTO 430 SOUW TAIKOO +4LBS 2ND LTO 530 SOUW DANSILI DUTCH +2LBS 2ND LTO 8 SELECTIONS | |||||||||||||||||||||
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ykickamoocow - I look at the rating bands, e.g. 0-135 and 0-140, as merely part of the conditions of race entry.
They do not always reflect the highest rated horse(s) that turns up on the day as evidenced by the two examples I gave. When comparing movements in class with movements in weight as I do occasionally, I find it essential to use the OR of the highest rated horse in the race as a starting point (rather than the maximum OR that the race conditions permit). To do otherwise would render my calculations of even less use than they are now! Good luck with tomorrows lays. | |||||||||||||||||||||
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ANYONE INTERESTED IN THE HORSES WHO HAVE ACTUALLY WON
FROM 72 SELECTIONS THERE HAS BEEN 11 WINNERS AND 61 LOSERS IN TOTAL. 61LOST 11WON 72 BETS 84.72% WIN S/R FOR LAYING. LOSSES -43.97PTS WINS +58.90 -5%COMM TOTAL P/L +14.93PTS S.P'S OF 11 HORSES WHO WON.4.90,5.76,4.41,6.33,4.20,4.20,6.60,3.15,8.56,2.57,4.29. | |||||||||||||||||||||
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FAIR ENOUGH TOPRATED.U ARE CORRECT WITH UR ASSESSMENT.I AM GUESSING SO FINE WILL GET ANOTHER FEW POUNDS FOR HIS EFFORTS.THERE IS A HORSE RUNNING 2MORROW COOL OPERATOR WHO IS UP 4LBS FOR UNSEATING AFTER 8 FENCES IN A 3 MILE RACE LAST TIME OUT.I JUST THINK THIS IS CRIMINAL AND I WOULD HATE TO OWN IT.WHAT DO U THINK OF THAT????
SORRY I SPELT IT WRONG IN SELECTIONS..COOL OPERATION I PUT.I AM DOOZY..  | |||||||||||||||||||||
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How can you base a system on an average of 2-3lb weight raises that equate to less than a length they reckon by official handicapping calcs that you perceive to be wrong because the horse didn't win but must of shown some improvement anyhow?
You cannot rate a horses chances based purely on a minor discrepancy in weights and then expect a reward from the BSP lay or back price as I very much doubt you will get out of the commission payment plug never mind hoping to get into profit! You may as well be reading tea leaves and buy some large hooped ear rings off ebay  | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Try looking at horses that are running at a pre-winning weight or less against raised horses That have shown some form as well if backing, am sure this will net more than this system or laying horses that have been winning and now are raised in weights at reduced odds if you want too lay instead.
But drop the dead donkey | |||||||||||||||||||||
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THANKS BF FOR UR INSIGHT,IT IS VERY WELCOME.WHEN U TALK OF LAYING HORSES THAT HAVE BEEN WINNING AND ARE NOW RAISED IN THE WEIGHTS WOULD THAT INCLUDE HORSES LIKE HUNT BALL,PEPITE ROSE AND THE SUCH.ONE THING I DO KNOW LAYING PROGRESSIVE HORSES IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POORHOUSE.I WOULD PREFER TO LAY HORSES WHO ARE NOT WINNING AND ARE RISING IN THE WEIGHTS.MAKES A LOT MORE SENSE.CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHY A HORSE LIKE COOL OPERATOR IS RAISED 4LBS FOR UNSEATING HIS RIDER HALF WAY WITH 8 FENCES LEFT TO JUMP IN A 20F RACE AT NEWCASTLE LAST RUN.I CANT.THE HANDICAPPER MAY HAVE HIS OPINION,U HAVE YOURS AND I HAVE MINE.
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When horses like Hunt ball are raised up in the weights they are expected to not win next time but this is only true when the handicapper has got the correct rating in the first place which for new or progressive horses is a pointless business as some horses are destined to win the very best races with 12 stone plus handicap so weights wont stop this type of horse from winning.
The majority of officially rated horses are at the correct weight and 7 lb will stop a lot of them from winning but not sure that if a horse is raised by a couple of pound if improving without a win is good lay as the horse has been rated higher for improved performance and will certainly win at some near point if progressing in form. | |||||||||||||||||||||
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I can speak about greyhound racing and many greyhounds are raised in class when they havent won at the lower grade but the clock says that the dog has improved and the raise in class is mostly justified.
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By the way I must apologise if sounding like I am knocking what you are doing and find it rather intersting TBO, have you had much success with your approach?
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fair enough BF,you say horses like hunt ball when raised by the hcapper are not expected to win next run. doesn't that make it more likely that a horse raised by the hcapper for not winning is less likely to win????hunt ball couldn't win a class 6 hunters chase this time last year.you also say the hcapper, been so good at his/her job has got the majority of horse on the correct mark.i for one would not agree with that statement at all.the hcapper uses disgression like everyone else except his/her disgression errs on the side of caution.how many horses do we see put up 14lbs plus after winning only to be dropped back 4 or 5lbs after their next run. the problem in the u.k. is with the lack of good prize money trainers/owners need to devise a plan to get their horses a good hcap mark.this only sows the seeds of skulduggery which is endemic in u.k. racing.horses schooled around or half fit running in novice events are prevalent everyday on our screens.it was the same 20 years ago when i worked for some top trainers.nothing has changed and it wont until a fairer system of hcapping is brought in.horses and owners should be encouraged to run horses with good intentions.look at novice chases this season.they are a disgrace .i heard one good trainer the other day stating after one of his had won by half the track on the all weather that we got him well handicapped over hurdles and we cant wait to run him again off his lowly mark.i looked at this horses 3 hurdle runs and he was beaten a total of 319 lenghts.yet u have a trainer quoted as saying we got him well handicapped.i dont blame owners and trainers.when you see a horse like COOL OPERATOR today it must be infuriating to own it.i do hope he wins today but his chance has been compromised by a hcapper erring on the side of caution.and in answer to your question BF i dont know if this selection process will be successful or not,its to early to say.all i can say at the moment 85% of horses are losing and 67% of them are not been placed.maybe 1 or 2lbs is making a difference
Chris Gordon, trainer of Frederick William: "We got him handicapped over hurdles on soft ground and he has the same rating, 64, over hurdles as he has on the Flat. We can´t wait to go summer jumping with him." | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Not 100% sure if this is correct or not.
Cool Operator ran 2nd to Wood Yer on Sunday 26th February 2012, if the horse was re-assesed on the the thursday of the following week, ie 1st March, the entries for the race on 6th March may well have been in, therefore Cool Operator was able to run from his old handicap mark for that race. Effectively 4lbs well in. | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The difference for a horse winning a race and returning to the track quite quickly may still mean that he is well in as he is likely to be carrying a 5lb/7lb penalty but the handicapper may wish to raise it by 10lb upwards.
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thanks mighty fly for that,i was under the impression horses were assessed on the tues,but it may have still got in off 109...still went up for not winning
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RESULTS -5%COMM +12.07
310 HERE RIDDLEOFTHESANDS 2ND LOST PL SP 1.55 + 11.52 220 MRAS LANGLEY FELL WIN PL SP 3.06 + 12.47 220 MRAS THEODORE LAMB 1ST LOST PL SP 4.10 + 9.37 320 MRAS COOL OPERATION 3RD WIN PL SP 2.91 + 10.32 420 MRAS CHARLES 8TH WIN PL SP 1.81 + 11.27 420 MRAS CARLITOS SPIRIT 1ST LOST PL SP 6.64 + 5.63 430 SOUW TAIKOO 7TH WIN PL SP 5.51 + 6.58 530 SOUW DANSILI DUTCH 4TH WIN PL SP 1.74 + 7.53 P/L -4.54PTS 5WINS 3 LOSSES 5/8 62.5% WIN S/R OVERALL TOTALS 54W/80 67.5%WIN S/R +7.53 CARLITOS SPIRIT WAS A BIG SURPRISE TODAY WINNING AT 40.0 BSP...BUT THEM IS THE BREAKS.AFTER A WEEK OF POSTING SELECTIONS IT HAS BECOME OBVIOUS TO LIMIT PRICES TO A CERTAIN LEVEL.I WILL NOT OF COURSE DO THIS AS I NEED ALL THE DATA FROM THE BIGGER PRICED HORSES TO COME TO A CONCLUSION.A DISAPPOINTING END TO THE WEEK BUT A LOT LEARNED.THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN THE GROUND DRIES OUT FIELD SIZES CAN BE SMALL WHICH FOR PLACE LAYING IS TOUGH.ALSO LAYING 2 HORSES IN SAID SMALL FIELDS IS PROBABLY NOT A GOOD IDEA AS TODAYS RESULTS SHOW..I AM FINDING THE RESULTS VERY INTRIGUING TO SAY THE LEAST.I AM SURPRISED AT THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNPLACED HORSES WHICH IS RUNNING AT 2 OUT OF 3 UNPLACED AT THE MOMENT.PRICE LIMITS MIGHT REDUCE THIS BUT WITH GOOD STAKING I ALREADY SEE A LOT POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AS I AM LOOKING AT NO OTHER NEGATIVE FACTORS.IF ANYTHING ITS A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR PLACE LAYING A HORSE.ON WE GO. | |||||||||||||||||||||
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As i say, i'm not entirely sure on what day horses are officially re-assesed and what significance the fact that it ran on a Sunday has. The handicapper will obviously re-assess on a given day, but when the cut off is i'm not sure. He may well do it on Tuesday, but only take into account racing up to the previous Saturday, therefore racing on the Sunday would not get re-assesed for 9 days.
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that is correct fly.that is my understanding of it.u always hear that 9 day window for sunday winners.they used to say never on a sunday now its always on a sunday...
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FROM NOW ON I WILL BE ADDING FOR JUMPS; HORSES WHO ARE 12LBS HIGHER THAN THEIR LAST WINNING MARK BUT LOST LAST TIME OUT AND FOR THE FLAT; HORSES WHO ARE 8LBS HIGHER THAN THEIR LAST WINNING MARK AND WHO ALSO LOST LAST TIME OUT.
TOMMORROWS SELECTIONS 400 LING KISS A PRINCE +1LB 8TH LTO 500 LING ESTONIA +2LBS 4TH LTO 500 LING ABILITYNDELIVERY +8LBS SINCE LASTWIN 6THLTO 530 LING RISE TO GLORY +2LBS 4TH LTO 320 LUDL AJZAL +12LBS SINCE LASTWIN 3RDLTO 320 LUDL ESTEEM +15LBS SINCE LASTWIN 2NDLTO CHASE 350 LUDL UP TO THE MARK +3LBS 2ND LTO(CHASE) 310 TAUT DOURYNA +14LBS SINCE LASTWIN 3RDLTO 410 TAUT OH KHEE +4LBS 2ND LTO 610 KEMP BOUNTIFUL CATCH +1LB 2ND LTO 625 LEOP SPUNKY +1LB 2ND LTO 11 SELECTIONS.PLACE LAY BSP | |||||||||||||||||||||
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some interesting results already appearing.having talked about a price limit i have come to a figure of 4.0.....63 of the 80 selections were under 4.0 and 43 of them were winning lays.this gave a 68.25% win s/r...63w/80
the overall profit is +16.37pts laying under 4.0...so it would make a lot of sense to lay only 4.0 or under.. | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Very interesting thread and looks like it has a lot of potential.
Good luck Sir,i'll be following this closely. | |||||||||||||||||||||
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43w/63 is the win rate under 4.o sorry for mistake...68.25%
thanks scare.i hope it gets more interesting... |