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21 Mar 12
13:35
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Date Joined:
01 Jul 10
I WILL POST HORSES RUNNING TODAY WHO I FEEL ARE HARSHLY TREATED BY HCAPPER FOR NOT WINNING.
2.40 HAY STOPPED OUT +10LBS(HURDLES),RADMORES REVENGE +6LBS(2ND LATEST),TIMESAWASTIN +6LBS(2NDLATEST)
3.50 HAY TOM O TARA (+11LBS FOR FIN 2ND,DOWN 4LBS,STILL 16LBS HIGHER THAN LAST WINNING MARK)
4.25 HAY SAVIERO +4LBS(2ND LATEST)
5.15 HERE FASHION WEEK +4LBS(2ND LATEST)
2.40 HAY STOPPED OUT +10LBS(HURDLES),RADMORES REVENGE +6LBS(2ND LATEST),TIMESAWASTIN +6LBS(2NDLATEST)
3.50 HAY TOM O TARA (+11LBS FOR FIN 2ND,DOWN 4LBS,STILL 16LBS HIGHER THAN LAST WINNING MARK)
4.25 HAY SAVIERO +4LBS(2ND LATEST)
5.15 HERE FASHION WEEK +4LBS(2ND LATEST)
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the most interesting horse today has to be Radmores Revenge(2.40 hay),he is 17lbs higher than his last winning mark of 109.10lbs of this has been added without winning and he now stands on a mark of 126.josh wall took 7lbs off his back last time out from a mark of 120 so he raced off 113.so today he carries 13lbs more with mccoy up in an 0-135 race having finished 2nd in an 0-125 LTO.i feel he is very harshly treated and would be very surprised even with the great mccoy if he gets near to winning.
Tom O Tara(3.50hay) has the dreaded Timeform squiggle which i think is a bit unfair on the horse.after winning off 90 in 2010 he went up a total of 20lbs over his next 5 runs without winning to 110.11Lbs of this was added after finishing 2nd in a moderate class 4 hcap, which was very harsh indeed as most winners are given only 7lbs.he has only dropped 4Lbs since and now back from a break is still 16lbs higher than his last winning mark.we will see how he goes today. I don't hold out much hope for him even though he runs well fresh. |
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stopped out up 10lbs but won lto over hurdles ???
tom otara off same mark as last run ???? |
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If you look at the details of Tom O'Tara's 2nd to Salpierre, you'll see why he was put up 11lb. The winner won off a mark 16lb higher nxt time, and the 3rd horse was running off a mark 12lb lower than the mark he had been raised to (as a result of his jockey throwing a race away when clear). Those 3 were a mile clear of the rest. They HAD to raise Tom a chunk for that.
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yes ged u r correct in your assessment which was with hindsight,11LBS was a bit harsh in my book,each horse is different and progresses at different rates.he was marked up before salpiere won next time out.and we all know how one of johnjoes can improve a few stone.i would rate an 11Lb increase harsh after a win:-))).i am interested to see how these horses fair over the longterm.it seems like an interesting angle for a layer.dont u think?
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2-40 Haydock - STOPPED OUT
Last time over HURDLES - STOPPED OUT beat Premier Grand Cru - giving that horse 3 lbs - PLUS Premier Grand Cru's 7 lb Conditional Jockey's claim Next time out - Premier Grand Cru beat RAYA STAR - off a 12 lb, physical, Higher mark - with NO Claiming rider. RAYA STAR ran off just 116 when 2nd in that race to Premier Grand Cru - Raya Star has since WON the Ladbroke Hurdle, at Ascot, off 134 - - and then ran in the County Hurdle, at Cheltenham, off 143. |
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a good horse can give 2 stone to his rivals and still win though staying distances can stretch this position to a limit!
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stopped out was a mistake on my part and should not have been included..my apologies...
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tom is been backed 10 to 15/2 interesting...
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8.25 kemp ELLIE IN THE PINK +4LBS(2NDLATEST)
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well radmores and tom beaten outta sight as expected,timesawastin did everything he could to lose the race,talk about bad jumping,looked like he wanted off the track at some points,earplugs seem to work away..will be interesting what hcaper does.10Lbs i am guessing..
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SAVIERO ran ok for a long way but faded late on...
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FASHION WEEK has become a NR....but i will pick up on it next time it is entered..seemed to have good chance today...i didnt pick up any reason why from course,ground maybe???
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8.25 KEMP..Ellie In The Pink drifted like a barge and they r still waiting for her to finish..needed the run no doubt..
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TOMMORROWS DRAGSTERS..
2.4O CHEP MY VIKING BAY +9LBS(2ND LTO C5 SELLING HCAP HURD) 3.10 CHEP CERIUM +2LBS (4TH LTO C3 HCAP CHASE)-36LBS SINCE LASTWIN 4.20 CHEP KATHLEENS PRIDE +4LBS (3RD LTO C4 H)+7LBS SINCE LASTWIN 3.00 CARL KINGDOM OF MUNSTER +2LBS(2ND C4NOV HCAP H)MAIDEN 4.40 CARL DIZZY RIVER +1LB(4TH C3 HCAP H)+11LBS SINCE LASTWIN 3.20 FONT MARIE DEJA LA +8LBS(UR C5 HCAP H)MAIDEN** 3.05 WOLV GABRIALS LEXI +4LBS(2ND C5 HCAP)MAIDEN 3.05 WOLV AIAAM AL WAFA +3LBS(7TH C6 HCAP)MAIDEN 4.15 WOLV EDGEWORTH +2LBS(2ND C5 HCAP)+4LBS SINCE LAST WIN 5.20 WOLV JUST FIVE +3LBS(2ND C6 HCAP)-14LBS SINCE LAST WIN |
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Good day today cow
GL with this |
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the standout horse is another John O Shea trained runner in MY VIKING BAY 2.40 chep,John must be feeling sick at the moment and feel like the hcapper has it in for his charges.today his RADMORE'S REVENGE finished out with the washing with the champ up after been screwed by the hcapper for been placed again.well John things dont look any brighter as the Viking has been penalised 9lbs for finishing 2nd in a selling hcap.if he had won 10 lenghts it may be justified.o 30lenghts clear of the 3rd but what was he but a 75 rated plater.the winner has been beaten since by a horse who again was beaten 18lenghts today(acapulco bay).
MARIE DEJA LA is of course up 8lbs after unseating when clear at the last last time out.the word on the course was that tom cannon was thinking about that chinese he had promised himself at the time.this is a tougher race and she will be burdened no doubt by the extra weight.kicked twice when ur down i hope she runs well for all concerned. nothing else stands out as harsh except for KATHLEENS PRIDE and GABRIALS LEXI. |
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thanks mad,yeah its quick and easy and doesnt take alot of know how...i have always felt horses running well without winning should not be punished.its a wonder there is so much cat and mouse between trainers and hcappers.owners should not suffer for trying their best.novice chases have already been destroyed by overzealous hcaping.no one wants to run in them anymore.afraid of getting close to a good one.every horse should have his day in the sun.we would be better off with no handicaps.we drown in them.but we all know why that is dont we...
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4.15 CORK MARK ME UP +2LBS(3RD 4K HCAP H)+10LBS SINCE LAST WIN
4.45 CORK BEAU MICHAEL +1LB(3RD 13K HCAP H)NEVER WON HCAP JUMPS -32LBS FROM HIGHEST RATING(149) 4.45 CORK BALLINTEMPLE STAR +3LBS(2ND 13K HCAP H)NEVER WON HCAP 4.45 CORK NOVAROV +7LBS(2ND 8K HCAP H)+18LBS SINCE LAST WIN  5.45 CORK TORNANT +1LB(3RD 4K HCAP H)MAIDEN 8.00 KEMP LEADING STAR +1LB(3RD C6 HCAP)MAIDEN the standout horse at cork is NOVAROV in the 4.45 who is up another 7lbs for been placed LTO.that is a total rise of 18lbs since winning 3 runs back.believe it or not this horse is trained by a J O'SHEA in ireland.its seems the O'SHEA'S and the handicappers have a troubled history.i have already noted that flat a/w horses are very leniently treated when winning.one winner LTO running today was only raised 2Lbs.why is the N.H. horse more serverly penalised considering he/she has more distance to cover,a host of jumps to tackle and ground that is dire most of the time.yes the N.H. horse in any country is hard done by. MARK ME UP 4.15 cork, has been unfortunately named and the hcapper has been drawn to him again.only up another 2Lbs but thats 10lbs higher than his last win 2 runs back.mr rothwell is finding things hard enough.but u name a horse like this and u are asking for trouble.FORCED KIN comes to mind in this instance  |
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Just utter guff
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results.
2.4O CHEP MY VIKING BAY 2nd 3.10 CHEP CERIUM UNPLACED 4.20 CHEP KATHLEENS PRIDE 4TH 3.00 CARL KINGDOM OF MUNSTER 2ND 4.40 CARL DIZZY RIVER 2ND 3.20 FONT MARIE DEJA LA 1ST SP 5.76 3.05 WOLV GABRIALS LEXI UNPLACED 3.05 WOLV AIAAM AL WAFA 3RD 4.15 WOLV EDGEWORTH UNPLACED 5.20 WOLV JUST FIVE UNPLACED 4.15 CORK MARK ME UP 2ND(UNLUCKY) 4.45 CORK BEAU MICHAEL UNPLACED 4.45 CORK BALLINTEMPLE STAR UNPLACED 4.45 CORK NOVAROV 1ST SP 4.4 5.45 CORK TORNANT 3RD 2 WINS 13 LOSERS 12.35 -5%COMM RETURNED 8.16 LOSSES +4.19 POINT PROFIT NOVAROV WAS A SURPRISE BUT A GREAT RIDE...MARK ME UP WAS UNLUCKY.WILL GO UP AGAIN FOR THAT NO DOUBT. |
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1 win from 7 selections yesterday
Timesawastin 1st 4.90 returns 5.70 -5%comm losses 3.90 total +1.80 overall +5.99 3/22 86.36% win ratio |
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results:
LEADING LIGHT UNPLACED TOTALS +6.94PTS 3/23 86.95%WIN S/R |
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TOMMORROWS LEAD LOBBERS
LINGFIELD 200 BLACKMORE +2LBS 2ND LTO 335 MARIA MONTEZ +2LBS 2ND LTO 410 DESERT STRIKE +1LB 2ND LTO AND KYLLADDIE +2LBS 2ND LTO 520 RAINSBOROUGH +1LB 6TH LTO NEWBURY 240 TRIANGULAR +4LBS 2ND LTO AND OSCAR CLOSE +6LBS 4TH LTO 315 DESERT JOS +1LB 4TH LTO 350 MOONBEG DUDE +7LBS 3RD LTO 425 TONY STAR +3LBS 6TH LTO AND KANDARI +1LB 2ND LTO 530 MARCHING ORDERS +5LBS PU LTO (IRISHFORM) SEDGEFIELD 435 TOULOUSE EXPRESS +5LBS 2ND LTO WOLVERHAMPTON 540 CHART +5LBS 2ND LTO AND GEORGE FENTON +1LB 6TH LTO 610 RUSSIAN GEORGE +1LB 3RD LTO 710 AVAILED SPEAKER +1LB 2ND LTO 810 CADEAUX PEARL +2LBS 2ND LTO AND RED CAPE +3LBS 6TH LTO 19 IN TOTAL |
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Good stuff Cow
That Marie was a dark horse |
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so was black beauty
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What time did it run Cant ?
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Or did i miss a typo with a u
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YEAH MAD,GOOD TO SEE HER WIN TODAY,SHE DESERVED IT....KEEPS HER OFF THE LIST FOR NEXT TIME..I AM SURPRISED BY THE AMOUNT OF SELECTIONS.I THOUGHT IT WOULD BE A LOT LESS..I AM TREATING SELECTIONS AS LAYS.I WOULD GUESS 500 SELECTIONS WOULD BE A GOOD ENOUGH SAMPLE SIZE...ITS AN ANGLE I HAVE WANTED TO EXPERIMENT WITH FOR A WHILE...U WOULD HAVE TO LIMIT PRICES LONGTERM BUT I WILL LEAVE IT RUN STRAIGHT UP FOR NOW...ANYONE KNOW IF U COULD FILTER THIS METHOD ON RACEFORM INTERACTIVE FROM PAST RESULTS???
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AFTERNOON RESULTS
200 BLACKMORE UNPLACED 335 MARIA MONTEZ UNPLACED 410 DESERT STRIKE UNPLACED AND KYLLADDIE UNPLACED 520 RAINSBOROUGH UNPLACED NEWBURY 240 TRIANGULAR 1ST BSP 6.32 315 DESERT JOE UNPLACED 350 MOONBEG DUDE PULLED UP 425 TONY STAR UNPLACED KANDARI N.R. 530 MARCHING ORDERS NON QUALIFIER(REASSESSED ON IRISHFORM HUGHPRICE 380.0) SEDGEFIELD 435 TOULOUSE EXPRESS UNPLACED 1/10 RETURNS PROFIT +8.55 -5%comm LOSSES -5.32 TOTAL +3.23 OVERALL 4/33 87.87% WIN S/R TOTAL P/L +9.22PTS |
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EVENING RESULTS
WOLVERHAMPTON 540 CHART N.R. 540 GEORGE FENTON 1ST BSP 4.20  610 RUSSIAN GEORGE UNPLACED 710 AVAILED SPEAKER 1ST BSP 4.20 810 CADEAUX PEARL UNPLACED 810 RED CAPE UNPLACED 2/5 RETURNS +2.85 -5% COMM LOSSES -6.40 TOTAL -3.55PTS OVERALL 6/38 84.21% WIN S/R TOTAL P/L +5.67PTS |
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TOMMORROWS HOD CARRIERS
BANGOR ON DEE 350 RAILWAY DILLION +8LBS 3RD LTO 425 MOONLIGHT DRIVE +3LBS 3RD LTO AND SO FINE +1LB 3RD LTO KELSO 330 MR SYNTAX +3LBS 2ND LTO AND FREDDIE BROWN +2LBS 2ND LTO 405 FOUR FIDDLERS +6LBS 2ND LTO 440 MAN OF PRINCIPALS +9LBS PULLED UP LTO NEWBURY 240 KENTFORD GREY LADY +1LB 2ND LTO STRATFORD ON AVON 345 VIN DE ROY +4LBS 3RD LTO 525 MIDNIGHT SPIRIT +7LBS 2ND LTO LINGFIELD PARK 400 KINGSCROFT +2LBS 2ND LTO AND GEORGE GURU +1LB 2ND LTO 510 LAYLINE +3LBS 2ND LTO GOWRAN PARK 305 GHAREER +2LBS 2ND LTO 445 CONVINCING +1LB 4TH LTO 15 SELECTIONS. |
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CORRECTIONS ALREADY
FORGOT TO INCLUDE LEADING LIGHT PROFIT OVERALL P/L +6.94 +3.23 -3.55 =+6.62PTS |
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Looking good until the dreaded eve AW
Best of luck with this angle |
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thanks mad,yeah sur it could end up a good backing system if all else fails.still made a profit today.no harm done.i will post 500 selections and see where it ends up..at this rate 4 0r 5 weeks might do it.
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looking at the results so far, I would be place laying them. keep up the good work and I shall be keeping a close eye on this thread, all the way from Galway, Ireland.
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thanks newman,i was thinking the same,i will post place lay results alongside the win ones.makes sense.i got lost in galway once
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PLACE LAY RESULTS T0 1£ LEVEL STAKES -5%COMM
TIMESAWASTIN 1ST LOST PL SP 2.11 -1.11 STOPPED OUT UNPL WIN PL SP 12.63 -0.16 RADMORES REVENGE UNPL WIN PL SP 3.06 +0.79 TOM O TARA UNPL WIN PL SP 3.80 +1.74 SAVIERO UNPL WIN PL SP 3.30 +2.69 FASHION WEEK N.R - - - ---- +2.69 MY VIKING BAY 2ND LOST PL SP 2.94 +0.75 CERIUM UNPL WIN PL SP 3.74 +1.70 KATHLEENS PRIDE 4TH LOST PL SP 4.02 -1.32 KINGDOM OF MUNSTER 2ND LOST PL SP 2.10 -2.42 DIZZY RIVER 2ND LOST PL SP 1.63 -3.05 MARIA DEJA LA 1ST LOST PL SP 2.25 -4.30 GABRIALS LEXI UNPL WIN PL SP 2.00 -3.35 AIAAM AL WAFA UNPL WIN PL SP 11.4 -2.40 EDGEWORTH UNPL WIN PL SP 1.99 -1.45 JUST FIVE UNPL WIN PL SP 2.48 -0.50 MARK ME UP 2ND LOST PL SP 2.16 -1.66 BEAU MICHEAL UNPL WIN PL SP 4.44 -0.71 BALLINTEMPLE STAR UNPL WIN PL SP 5.48 +0.24 NOVAROV 1ST LOST PL SP 1.72 -0.48 TORNANT 3RD LOST PL SP 3.08 -2.56 LEADING LIGHT UNPL WIN PL SP 6.77 -1.61 BLACKMORE UNPL WIN PL SP 1.77 -0.66 MARIA MONTEZ UNPL WIN PL SP 2.29 +0.29 DESERT STRIKE UNPL WIN PL SP 2.62 +1.24 KYLLADDIE UNPL WIN PL SP 2.07 +2.19 RAINSBOROUGH UNPL WIN PL SP 5.80 +3.14 TRIANGULAR 1ST LOST PL SP 2.72 +1.42 DESERT JOE UNPL WIN PL SP 1.88 +2.37 MOONBEG DUDE UNPL WIN PL SP 1.86 +3.32 TONY STAR UNPL WIN PL SP 1.93 +4.27 KANDARI N.R. --- -- -- ---- +4.27 TOULOUSE EXPRESS UNPL WIN PL SP 2.29 +5.22 CHART N.R. --- -- -- ---- +5.22 GEORGE FENTON 1ST LOST PL SP 1.42 +4.80 RUSSIAN GEORGE UNPL WIN PL SP 1.58 +5.75 AVAILED SPEAKER 1ST LOST PL SP 2.30 +4.45 CADEAUX PEARL UNPL WIN PL SP 2.58 +5.40 RED CAPE UNPL WIN PL SP 7.20 +6.35 24W/36 WIN%S/R 66.66% TOTAL P/L +6.35 |
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PLACE LAY RESULTS T0 1£ LEVEL STAKES -5%COMM
TIMESAWASTIN 1ST LOST PL SP 2.11 -1.11 STOPPED OUT UNPL WIN PL SP 12.63 -0.16 RADMORES REVENGE UNPL WIN PL SP 3.06 +0.79 TOM O TARA UNPL WIN PL SP 3.80 +1.74 SAVIERO UNPL WIN PL SP 3.30 +2.69 FASHION WEEK N.R - - - ---- +2.69 MY VIKING BAY 2ND LOST PL SP 2.94 +0.75 CERIUM UNPL WIN PL SP 3.74 +1.70 KATHLEENS PRIDE 4TH LOST PL SP 4.02 -1.32 KINGDOM OF MUNSTER 2ND LOST PL SP 2.10 -2.42 DIZZY RIVER 2ND LOST PL SP 1.63 -3.05 MARIA DEJA LA 1ST LOST PL SP 2.25 -4.30 GABRIALS LEXI UNPL WIN PL SP 2.00 -3.35 AIAAM AL WAFA UNPL WIN PL SP 11.4 -2.40 EDGEWORTH UNPL WIN PL SP 1.99 -1.45 JUST FIVE UNPL WIN PL SP 2.48 -0.50 MARK ME UP 2ND LOST PL SP 2.16 -1.66 BEAU MICHEAL UNPL WIN PL SP 4.44 -0.71 BALLINTEMPLE STAR UNPL WIN PL SP 5.48 +0.24 NOVAROV 1ST LOST PL SP 1.72 -0.48 TORNANT 3RD LOST PL SP 3.08 -2.56 LEADING LIGHT UNPL WIN PL SP 6.77 -1.61 BLACKMORE UNPL WIN PL SP 1.77 -0.66 MARIA MONTEZ UNPL WIN PL SP 2.29 +0.29 DESERT STRIKE UNPL WIN PL SP 2.62 +1.24 KYLLADDIE UNPL WIN PL SP 2.07 +2.19 RAINSBOROUGH UNPL WIN PL SP 5.80 +3.14 TRIANGULAR 1ST LOST PL SP 2.72 +1.42 DESERT JOE UNPL WIN PL SP 1.88 +2.37 MOONBEG DUDE UNPL WIN PL SP 1.86 +3.32 TONY STAR UNPL WIN PL SP 1.93 +4.27 KANDARI N.R. --- -- -- ---- +4.27 TOULOUSE EXPRESS UNPL WIN PL SP 2.29 +5.22 CHART N.R. --- -- -- ---- +5.22 GEORGE FENTON 1ST LOST PL SP 1.42 +4.80 RUSSIAN GEORGE UNPL WIN PL SP 1.58 +5.75 AVAILED SPEAKER 1ST LOST PL SP 2.30 +4.45 CADEAUX PEARL UNPL WIN PL SP 2.58 +5.40 RED CAPE UNPL WIN PL SP 7.20 +6.35 24W/36 WIN%S/R 66.66% TOTAL P/L +6.35 |
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I will keep to place laying these horses as it makes a lot more sense pricewise..the p/l is much the same at the moment.i made another error with fashion week being a n.r. on 1st day.so win laying p/l is +5.57..
500 selections is still the target,after that i will disappear.. |