Sams Specials

15 points mate

Cheers D - 15 points it is - was in a hurry mate- hope there's something to count up at the end of the day - just back in and what's on ATR just now is quite interesting - one guy who has done more than anyone to try and help educate punters over the last few years - one who may be an intelligent man but contradicts himself quite often - I'll let you figure out which one is which.

Sam

Interesting to hear The Black Swan - The Impact Of The Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb getting mentioned on ATR - available for around £7.00 it's certainly worth a read if you can get you head round it.

Sam

Before Wilfred Pickles runs and since it seems to be an educational day on how to cope or realize that losing runs are inevitable I'm going to try and put a link up to results for this year from two systems I run elsewhere.

http://horseracingsystemchecker.co.uk/hrsc/pub/public/105

Sam

And the other

http://horseracingsystemchecker.co.uk/hrsc/pub/public/101

Sam

The wrong one really - got the winner with this months system 20/1(ded) - there were two selections today on the last system that I posted a link to - the winner and Wilfred Pickles - it's hard life sometimes.

Sam

Not sure Eddie was trying too hard today

Thought he might have been a bonus today mate - his best record at Lingfield(which is good) is over 1m 2f - for that reason I was prepared to ignore the draw - trainer in form - sire stats gave it every chance of staying 1m 2f but ridden like that you would never know.

Sam

On a normal day this would have been a half decent day as it is a small loss of -0.16 - probably not the day to be having any kind of bet on Eddie Ahern never mind a maximum one - a slight turn around for this months system basically saved the day - one winner - three placed and one that just missed the place from the five - Racheal Kneller who has been riding well lately probably gave Mays Boy 5th 16/1 too much to do.

Returns from Kaafel 1st 20/1(ded) - Dixie Gwalia 3rd 12/1 - Ajeeb 3rd 11/2(ded) - Sporting Gold 2nd 4/1

Wed 19th Dec
-0.16

Dec Overall
+6.61 advised stakes/prices
+3.80 1 point win BSP
-6.45(s)

Sam

First three today

Shahzan 2.00 Ling(s)
4/1 Corals
Summerinthecity 2.00 Ling(s)
22/1 Hills
Nave 3.30 Ling(s)
14/1 Boyles

All 0.50 points e/way

Sam

Next one

Bahri Sheen 5.00 Lingfield 1 point each-way
16/1 S James

Sam

Last bet today

Molly Jones 3.00 Lingfield 0.50 points e/way
4/1 Sport Bet(not BOG)
Standpoint 3.30 Lingfield 0.50 points e/way
7/1 Corals
Above two selections 0.50 points e/way double
7/2 and 7/1 Corals

8 points staked on the day

Sam

cheers sam . all the best for christmas and the new year . its been great fun this year and i look forward to your website next year .ps before you sign off on here , i am a complete computer novice so please explain how to access the wbsite .

Cheers mate - I'll wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New year just now if you're not going to be on here over the Christmas period.

Not too clued up on posting links etc myself but I'll try.

Website is basically set up just a couple of pages to add/update and a final decision on staking before the new year starts.
Basically selections will come from three sources and form a mini portfolio.
Not sure if the links I posted for two of the systems worked on here yesterday.
They work ok on the website so you can have access to them there.
You should be able to register now for January.

http://samsspecials.co.uk

Let me know if you get on ok

Sam

At least there was a profit today - sacrificed the better place price on Bahri Sheen for a bigger win price on here.

Returns from Bahri Sheen 1st 16/1 - Nave 3rd 14/1

Thurs 20th Dec
+16.90

Dec Overall
+23.51 advised stakes/prices
+12.15 1 point win BSP
-6.55(s)

Sam

Well Done Sam and good luck with the website Happy XMas as well

I will check out your website and would be interested to see a daily update of the selection viewable (after racing for the non-subscribing tightbarstards like myself )

Seems a fair price though so good luck ....

Cheers mate it is free for January - as Frank McAvennie once said "Free!!! even I'd pay for that"

Sam

I'll think about it (That's how tight I am )

Good Luck today .....

Cheers - first one today

Deferna Art 11.35 Ling 0.50 points e/way
14/1 S James

Sam

Next one

Charismas Birthday 8.30 Dundalk 0.50 points e/way
20/1 Hills

Sam

frank mcavennie-didnt he get done with a suitcase full of cash or charlie or something

Derfenna Art place wd Sam  .....

Cheers - yeah Mr Frank "wheres ra burds" McAvennie allegedly blew most of his money on a treasure hunt - women - gambling - drink and drugs. Simply wasted the rest

Sam

Next one

Sophies Echo 7.30 Dundalk 0.50 points e/way
12/1 365

Sam

Nothing else today

3 points staked on the day

Sam

first one today

Hoonose 3.35 Lingfield 0.50 points each-way
22/1 Sport Bet(not BOG)

Sam

Nothing else today

1 point staked on the day

Sam

Just one today

War Correspondent 2.30 Thurles 0.50 points each-way
9/2 Hills

Sam

All the best

Cheers D - update for last few days

Fri 21st Dec - Derfenna Art 2nd 14/1 - just noticed this went off at 25.78 BSP almost double SP matched at 4.20 to win it and paid 6.40 BSP place - Sophies Echoe was 4th 12/1 matched at 3.00 to win it.

Friday 21st Dec
-1.10
Saturday 22nd Dec
-1.00
Sunday 23rd Dec
-0.10

December Overall
+21.31 advised stakes/prices
+7.15 1 point win BSP
-6.55(s)

Sam

Wishing everyone here A Merry Christmas - and since at Christmas you have to listen to some things you don't want to I've tried to post a link to some recordings from a band I was in more than 20 years ago - just been "discovered" a few hours ago by another band member and put on reverbnation.

I have to say since it was over twenty years ago I did get some "interesting" sounds out of an electric guitar.

Give it a listen and if nothing else it will drive you to drink - think I'm going to have an attempt at making a few Baby Guinness myself.

http://www.reverbnation.com/thejennifersyndrome

There's a direct link on my twitter that works.

All the best

Sam

First bet today

Long Run 3.19 Kemp
Honest Deal 4.45 Wolv
1 point e/way double
3/1 and 11/2 Hills

Sam

Next three

Infinite Magic 3.15 Wolv(s)
4/1 Hills
Kingarrick 3.45 Wolv(s)
7/1 Hills
Flying Trader 4.45 Wolv(s)
11/1 VC

All 0.50 points e/way

Sam

Last one today

Sammy Black 1.50 Leopardstown 0.50 points e/way
10/1 Corals

6 points staked on the day

Sam

First lot today all from this months system

Saga Lout 11.45 Kemp
8/11 Paddy
Saoi 3.35 Ling
11/2 365
Daffydowndilly 3.35 Ling
11/4 Boyles
Coach Montana 6.00 Wolv
14/1 Hills
Saloon 7.30 Wolv
14/1 365

All 0.50 points e/way

Sam

Nothing else today - Songbird Blues runs in the 1.15 Lingfield - Marks Ushers views on her today can be seen on his twitter page - I'll be having a small bet on her just in case.

5 points staked on the day

Sam

Just to say if she was back to near her best I would give her a solid e/way chance in this race.

Sam

first one today

Glass Mountain 4.50 Wolv 1 point e/way
18/1 Paddy

Sam

Next

Hereford Boy 3.30 Ling 1 point e/way
22/1 Hills

Sam

Next

Hazard Warning 6.20 Wolv 0.50 points e/way(s)
14/1 Hills

Sam

Next

For Shia And Lula 3.50 Wolv 1 point e/way
14/1 Boyles

Sam

Next two

Diddums 1.30 Ling 1 point e/way
33/1 Boyles
Admirable Duque 6.50 Wolv 1 point e/way
16/1 Corals

Sam

Last bet today is a place only multi

The New Black 1.00 Ling
Frans Hals 6.20 Wolv
Mica Mika 6.50 Wolv

Three 0.50 points place only doubles
1 point place only treble
7/4,11/8 and 15/8 Lads

13.50 points staked on the day

Sam

First three today

Another Citizen 2.05 Wolv 0.50 points e/way(s)
11/4 S James
Anychanceofabirdie 3.40 Wolv 0.50 points e/way(s)
12/1 Hills
Pairumani Prince 4.10 Wolv 0.50 points e/way(s)
5/1 Sport Bet(not BOG)

Sam

Last two today

Littlecote Lady 3.10 Wolv 0.75 points e/way
16/1 Hills
Shes Some Girl 4.10 Wolv 0.75 points e/way
16/1 VC

Above two 0.50 points place only double
100/30 and 3/1 Paddy

6.50 points staked on the day

Sam

First one today

My Scat Daddy 3.20 Ling 0.50 points e/way(s)
3/1 Paddy

Sam

Next one

Querido 3.20 Lingfield 1 point each-way
18/1 VC

Sam

Next one

Chandrayan 3.50 Lingfield 1 point e/way
20/1 S James

Sam

Last bet today

Querido 3.20 LIng
Chandrayan 3.50 Ling

0.50 points place only double
11/4 and 4/1 Hills

5.50 points staked on the day

Sam

Get totals for this up to date - been a poor run since Boxing Day.

Wed 26th
-3.25
Thurs 27th
+0.75
Fri 28th
-11.00
Sat 29th
-1.72
Sun 30th
-4.70

December Overall
+1.49 advised stakes/prices
+2.27 1 point win BSP
-4.22(s)included in advised total

Sam

Check out your stats for Winter Sam
Generally poor
Flog a dead oss etc
Or focus on what you good at

If you're talking about picking months to bet and months not to bet it just doesn't work that way - wish it did because I would go on holiday.

Taking Oct - Dec inclusive for the last three years

2010 +53.00
2011 +93.00
2012 currently -4.00

Sam

My own three personal selection methods which I post here and on Punter Profits are for the three months Oct 2012 - Dec 2012

Sams Specials -4.00
Sam A/W System +155.00 BSP - roughly +185.00 for me
Sam A/W Creme +49.00 BSP - roughly +65.00 for me

There are periods over this year and previous years where profit and loss will vary for all three - that's the whole point of having a portfolio - think I've said before June would normally be my best month and September my worst - this year it was the opposite.

Sam

flat outsiders were amazing,especially the melbourne cup,heads up sam,flat season,happy new year.

Cheers mate - years not quite finished yet - first one today

Lucky Di 12.30 Lingfield 0.50 points e/way(s)
9/4 Hills

Sam

Next one today

Foot Tapper 1.30 Ling 2 points e/way
12/1 S James

Sam

2 points e/w quite big in context to normal sam.ill have a dabble

I liked the look of Foot Tapper today too Sam. Good luck!

Foot Tapper is also thrown up by the two systems I mentioned earlier - usually I wouldn't want to be having any more than I already have on but Foot Tapper just about warrants going for it across the board - three year old and only colt in the race so might just have  some improvement in it - will probably need to improve for win purposes - either a good day to finish the year or not - 7/1 in the betting without fav market should be a bet to nothing too.

Sam

Next one today is mainly based on value in the price - will need to return to form - hopefully a return to Lingfield might bring that about - an uncontested lead wouldn't go amiss but that's far from sure to happen - although we're dealing with a fairly small sample it's mainly the owner stats that make me think there's some value in the price.


Beautiful Day 2.30 Lingfield 1 point e/way
25/1 365

Sam

this thread is a credit to you - no bull,just sensible posts,you ve done well to keep it going.

Good luck Sam and a happy New Year.

Cheers lads - I'll round things up and say my goodbyes later - one final bet to finish off the year - again not exactly a winner waiting to happen but 14/1 seems fair enough to me - you could make excuses for her last two runs and posted a decent enough speed figure last time - Cowell generally does well with this type - three year old fillies over this distance at this time of year do fairly well - the 4lbs drop in the weights from last time should give her a chance of being involved in the finish.

Golconde 3.00 Lingfield 1 point e/way
14/1 S James

9 points staked on the day

Sam

No joy again today - Foot Tapper went off 6/1 which makes no difference because there was no return - race didn't pan out for it - should be dropped a couple of pounds and wouldn't rule it out next time - Beautiful Day 3rd 25/1 - race basically did pan out for it but wasn't good enough although this was an improved display - Golconde unpl 14/1 - travelled well on its last run here but didn't go an inch today.

Mon 31st Dec
-2.28

December Overall
-1.79 advised stakes/prices
-1.73 1 point win BSP
(s)-4.50 included in overall advised/stakes prices

Sam

tomorrows another day Sam and hopefully the start of a very succesful year . all the best

Cheers mate - round up for the last three months now

Oct +15.15 advised stakes/prices
Nov -19.83 advised stakes/prices
Dec - 1.79 advised stakes/prices

Oct 2012 - Dec 2012 inclusive
-6.47 advised stakes/prices

A smallish loss over the three month period which is disappointing given the time and effort put into it.

I ran two micro systems in two of the three months which produced a loss -8.20 so sticking to my usual selection methods there was a massive profit of +1.73

The month I left out the micro system there would have been a profit of +26.50 so not too chuffed about that.

In October I probably didn't have my stakes high enough - November there were a lot of places and near misses - December started well but hit a bad run after Xmas where I probably over staked slightly.

Sam

Now a quick round up for this thread and my time posting on here - can't really believe it has been 15 months - if you check back through the posts there are more detailed totals.

For the period on here Oct 2011 - Dec 2013 inclusive

+272.74 advised stakes/prices

Could have been worse could have been better - but a decent enough profit overall

Sam

sam good luck in your new venture.

Many thanks sam for all your work and time put into thiss

Sorry, didn`t get last post finished, got gammy finger and pressed wrong button. To continue: I hope in some way you will carry on, so if you decide to please let us know where we can find you.
Wishing you and your family a very Happy & Prosperous New Year.

If you do want to join me on the dark side you can still sign up for the website which kicks off tomorrow - looking forward to a fresh challenge of sorts.

samsspecials.co.uk

Free for January if you register - hopefully you will have made enough in the first month to pay for the next month

Basically a mini portfolio - the two systems that are involved have performed well in January and February over the last few years - a tough time of year to find bigger priced winners so the Sams Specials part of it will probably have bets in the lower price ranges - unless something springs up of course.

Sam

Cheers lads - finally on a personal note I have to say I have enjoyed my time on here - with less abuse than I imagined

Thanks to everyone who has contributed and for your input and help along the way.

I do take it seriously(I have to) but on the good days and when I've had time to have a bit of craic I've enjoyed that too.

Rather than leave you with some inane drivilings about long term - patience etc I though I would leave you with a poem that maybe sums things up better than i ever could - might be a bit a highbrow for me

When i was a lad hanging about the bin sheds with a vest top on at this time of year - fire blazing - drinking cheap wine I doubt if I ever thought I would be quoting Kipling on a thing called the internet but as Del Boy said he does make exceedingly good cakes.


IF you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
' Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
if neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!

All the best to everyone - wishing you all A Happy And Prosperous New Year

Cheers
Sam

Still not too late to register free for todays selections - online now if you do

samsspecials.co.uk

Cheers
Sam

Been a long time and god knows who's still here from the old days - been profits every year since I started the Sams Specials website a few years ago - fantastic year last year where I most certainly over performed with around +840 points profit to average 1 point stakes - back to earth with a bump this year - biggest problem I've had this year has been incorporating sectional timings into selections and thinking that would give an extra edge -that angle has been disappointing to say the least.
Anyway thought I would post Saturday selections here albeit after they've went out to members - maybe pick up another couple of extra members because of it - maybe not.

Being a Saturday around 35 on my working list for today - 11 of them double figure odds - run through will have to pretty basic today.
Of the really bigger priced ones I had to leave out Society Ranger 5.30 Navan with an early price drop from 33/1 to around 14/1 - another couple of interest in this race Jeremys Jet if the rain came and Sea Of Blue would have been a bet at 14/1 + on a drop back in trip.

Lincoln 2.40 Ascot 20/1 - won a Group 3 last year with a good figure that would give it every chance here - a couple of it's best figures over C/D would give it a chance too - although it had past form at Doncaster it's still one of those courses where I can sometimes be prepared to forgive a bad run.

New Caledonia 3.10 Ascot 12/1- needs to improve on it's previous figures to have a chance here - the hope is the step up in trip will bring that about - draw and jockey ride are a worry - 14/1 or 16/1 would have made it an automatic bet - 12/1 just makes it - I''ve basically had an extra 0.25 points on the win side to balance out any potential returns today.

Ayersome Angel 4.25 Thirsk 40/1 - obviously a 40/1 shot but mark has dropped again and stable is in better form now - whether it has dropped low enough is debatable in this class of race but looked worth chancing to small stakes at the price - bit of an American angle too - 3rd run after a lay off - first run back was slightly better than it reads - last run a bit more promise from an impossible position and not given a hard time.

Stop The Wages 3.15 Kemp 33/1 - LTO figure at York puts it 2nd best in here and may have been slightly against a bias - The Last Lion has the form in the book but been a long season for it - Kodiac colt on 2nd run Koropick was mighty impressive first time out and could be anything - had to put the place bet up to BFSP because of non runner - Dandy Flame has a bit to find on the clock a Dandy Man gelding who won on 2nd run at around 700/1 BFSP last time - would probably be around half it's 50/1 odds today if it was from a more fashionable stable.

Fyrecracker 3.25 Thirsk 18/1 - have to forgive last run to give this one a chance - had been running well before that and although only dropped a pound from last run - may have a squeak if it runs up to its best and things pan out for it.

Louis The Pious 4.10 Ascot 40/1 - bit out of sorts of late but mark has dropped again - has some decent form at the course - Ascot much like Doncaster is a course where you have to sometimes look at form in isolation - won the Ayr Gold Cup and a similar race at Ascot two years ago from higher marks and looked worth chancing to small stakes at the price.

Sam

Sams Specials

Lincoln 2.40 Ascot
0.25 points e/way
0.50 points win
20/1 365,Coral,Lads,Black Type

Louis The Pious 4.10 Ascot
0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
40/1 Coral,S James,Black Type

Ayresome Angel 4.25 Thirsk
0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
40/1 365,VC,Coral,Black Type

Last

Sams Specials

New Caledonia 3.10 Ascot
0.25 points e/way
0.75 points win
12/1 365,Hills,VC,Black Type

Stop The Wages 3.15 Kemp
0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points place BFSP
33/1 Hills,Paddy

Fyrecracker 3.25 Thirsk
0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.50 points win
18/1 Hills,BFO,Betbright

Good to hear of the decent profit Sam ... gl back on here

Cheers mate - far from a good year this year so far - Saturday's always a tricky day usually boom or bust - see how it goes

wd

Cheers - back next Saturday

New Caledonia 1st 12/1

Stakes 4.50 points
Returns 14.00 points

+ 9.50 points on the day

Sam

WD,16.5 bsp 38.0 in running.

Cheers - a few of these will probably be bigger to BFSP today again

These are everything for today

Sams Specials

Sikandarabad 7.20 Leop 0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
5/1 Paddy,BFO (rule 4)

Aventus 3.20 Bath 0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
7/1 Hills,Lads,365

Chevallier 2.15 Chest 0.25 points e/way
14/1 Hills,Coral,365

Lexington Abbey 2.35 Donc 0.25 points e/way
16/1 Lads,BFO

Housesofparliament 3.45 Donc 0.25 points e/way
11/1 Hills,Sky,VC

Cant Change It 4.50 Donc 0.25 points e/way
10/1 Hills,Coral,365

Avenante 4.35 Leop 0.25 points e/way
12/1 Hills,Paddy,365

Nelsons Bay 7.00 Muss 0.25 points e/way
12/1 Coral,Lads,365

4.50 points staked on the day

Sam

Never noticed this thread before, gl will watch with interest.

A couple of disappointing runs yesterday - Housesofparliament 11/1 finished 3rd where basically Colm O'Donoghue came out 3rd of the jockeys involved in the finish - Sikandaarabad went off a lot shorter even given the rule 4 and was very disappointing - anyway a small profit on the day.

Cant Change It 1st 10/1 (10p ded) - Chevallier 3rd 14/1 - Housesofparliament 3rd 11/1

Stakes 4.50
Returns 5.12
+ 0.62 on the day

Overall
Stakes 9.00
Returns 19.12
+10.12
ROI 112.44%

Sam

First today

Sams Specials
Colonel Bossington 4.35 Newb
0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
20/1 Paddy,Hills,18/1 365

Next today

Sams Specials

Wedding Dress 3.00 Catt
0.50 points e/way
ALSO 0.50 points win
20/1 Hills,Sky,Black Type

Lexington Abbey 2.35 Ayr
0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
16/1 Hills,Coral,365,20/1 S James

Shrewd 3.50 Newm
0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
16/1 Hills,Coral,Lads,365

Last today

Sams Specials

Dandy Place 3.00 Catt
0.50 points e/way
ALSO 0.50 points win
16/1 Betway,14/1 Hills,Lads,Fred

Louis The Pious 2.35 Ayr
0.25 points e/way
28/1 Coral,365,Sky,Black type

Jack Dexter 3.45 Ayr
0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
16/1 Hills,Lads,365

Absolutely So 3.45 Ayr
0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
16/1 Coral,365,S James

Brando 3.45 Ayr
0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
18/1 365,VC,Boyles

8.00 points staked on the day
Sam

Busy day - basic run through - still annoyed with myself for not having extra win stake on Lincoln 20/1 yesterday.

Colonel Bossington 4.35 Newb 20/1 - dropped 3lbs with Josephine Gordon taking off another 3lbs - fairly decent run on A/W off a 3 month lay off last time.
Sire has a good A/E on turf better than on A/W and should handle the ground - price dropped fairly quickly on this one so didn't have get all stakes on at 20/1 - Black Type didn't have prices up at the time probably because of non runners.

Shrewd 3.50 Newm 16/1 - might be pushing it slightly with this one although 16/1 looked fair enough to take the chance- Jardines apprentice 7lbs claimer Gormley hasn't ridden a winner yet never mind at Newmarket but he knows the horse and obvioulsy has the 7lbs claim - have to forgive last run but has some figures that would give it every chance here.

Lexington Abbey 2.35 Ayr 16/1 - Los The Pious 2.35 Ayr 28/1 - Lexington Abbey has some figures that would put it in the mix but will have to run to it's best and get the breaks- Smullen booked so hopefully it does - I've put Louis The Pious up the last couple of times is weighted to have very chance IF it came back to it's best.

Absolutely So 3.45 Ayr 16/1 - Jack Dexter 3.45 Ayr 16/1 - Brando 3.45 Ayr 18/1 - wont go into detail but various reasons why all three should have some kind of chance but then again so does over half the field - I had a brief conversation with Jim Goldie after I had put Jack Dexter up as a maximum bet at Ascot last time - I tend to give soft ground horses a chance sometimes at Ascot on firmer ground hence the maximum bet last time - didn't tell me anything I wasn't expecting at the time - ground wasn't soft enough and it was heading for the Ayr Gold Cup - ground may have dried out too much again but Berry is an interesting jockey booking although stable form is a worry.
Absolutely So has some figures that would give it a chance and Hornby is probably still worth his 3lbs claim.
Brando takes a class drop from its last few runs a couple of which were decent - problem is up 9lbs because of them - win at Sandown could probably be upgraded and may be suited byt the way the race pans out if eaves can give it a decent ride.

Wedding Dress 3.00 Catt 20/1 - Dandy Place 3.00 Catt 14/1/16/1 - although some negatives the two of these looked over priced - Wedding Dress beat one of our syndicate horses Kodi Da Capo into 2nd when winning first time out at Wolverhampton returning a decent time in the process - backed that figure up when finishing second to Yalta next time at Pontefract - Ellison's Orewa finished 3rd that day and won a valuable sales race at the Curragh lst Sunday - obvious concern is its last two runs but goes into Nurseries off a mark of 76 4lbs lower than Kodi Da Capo is now rated.

Put Dandy Place up last time when it ran a lot better finishing 3rd around 20/1 - handicapper wasn't too kind with the mark he gave this one but may have more to offer than it showed early on - nearly bought 75% in this one for our syndicate at the start of the year when we were looking for a Dandy Man - up in Class is a concern but LTO figure was a big improvement and a repeat would put it right in the mix with maybe still some improvement to come.

Sam

Brando 1st 18/1 - Dandy Place 2nd 16/1 - Shrewd 3rd 16/1

Stakes 8.00
Returns 14.22
+6.22 on the day

Overall
Stakes 17.00
Returns 33.34
+16.34
ROI +96.12%

Sam

Well done Sam. I'm glad to see you're still going strong.

WD Sam good day

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YvAYIJSSZY

Cheers lads

wd sam ,i remember your 100/1 2nd melbourne cup few years ago.

First today

Sams Specials

Paddy Power 4.25 Ripon - Maximum Bet
20/1 Coral,Lads,VC,Black Type
1 point e/way
ALSO 3 points win

Farkle Minkus 4.05 Ham 0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.50 points win
9/1,Sky,Fred,Lads,VC

Last today

Sams Specials

Dutch Mist 4.40 Ham 0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.50 points win
7/1 365,Fred,VC

Erik The Red 4.10 Newm 0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
22/1 Lads,Fred,365

Master Of The World 4.10 Newm 0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
25/1 Hills,Coral,365

Free To Dance 2.45 Hayd 0.50 points e/way
9/2 Hills,Coral,Fred

Reverend Jacobs 3.20 Hayd 0.50 points e/way
4/1 Paddy,Fred,365

10.50 points staked on the day

Sam

Thoughts on one of today's

Paddy Power 4.25 Ripon 20/1 - as with most 20/1 shots there will be negatives but all things being equal I would have this one no bigger than 12/1 in my book albeit it's a very competitive race.
Fahey stable thought a lot of this one early so didn't run it early on for handicap mark - suffered because of that given an overly high Handicap mark of 90 after it's first 3 runs although it never actually raced off that mark in a Handicap - after some decent runs eventually won its Maiden at Chelmsford and went into Handicaps off a revised mark of 85 which was still a bit on the high side.
Some decent runs without winning since then - two of it's last five runs have been against a bias - five and a half furlongs if there was such a race would probably be its optimum trip - doesn't quite see it out over 6 furlongs on softer ground and either needs softer ground or a decent pace to have a chance over 5 furlongs.
Dropped to its lowest mark yet of 81 and drops for the first time into an 0-85 Handicap with Hayley Irvine taking off a further 7lbs off i.e 74 taking the jockey claim into account.

Drawn near the middle in stall 10 which will either be a negative or a positive depending on how the track rides and the pace of the race.

The obvious concern here is the jockey - if she gets caught up in traffic I doubt she will over come it or judges her position or the pace of the race wrong it will be a lost cause - basically hoping for a good A to B ride without the problems I've mentioned above.

Hayley Irvine has had 18 rides before today - one winner with another three placed - she won her race over 6 furlongs at Ripon albeit in an Apprentice race and has at least had another couple of rides over the course - she's in against the big boys today which has to be factored into the price - although far from the finished article even in terms of female apprentices she has shown some kind of basic competence from a stable that has/had some decent apprentices in the past.

A mark of "74" would give this one every chance in this race if running to its best - although I may have preferred a different claimer on board 20/1 still looked over priced and hopefully worth risking to higher stakes.

Sam

Bad enough day yesterday even  without Paddy Power not running its race at all - eventually going off at 8/1 - was loaded early and played up in the stalls - who knows whether that made any difference - will probably be dropped again in the weights where it could get into an 0-80 Handicap.

Stakes 10.50
No returns
-10.50 points on the day

Overall
Stakes 27.50
Returns 33.74
+5.84
ROI +21.24%

Sam

Bad enough day yesterday even  without Paddy Power not running its race at all - eventually going off at 8/1 - was loaded early and played up in the stalls - who knows whether that made any difference - will probably be dropped again in the weights where it could get into an 0-80 Handicap.

Stakes 10.50
No returns
-10.50 points on the day

Overall
Stakes 27.50
Returns 33.34 CORRECTION
+5.84
ROI +21.24%

Sam

Ride The Lightning 8.10 Wolv 1 point e/way
4/1 365,7/2 Coral,Lads

Theos Lolly 5.00 Redc 1 point e/way
9/2 365,Fred

Duretto 2.30 Ascot 0.50 points e/way
14/1 365,12/1 Coral,Hills,Lads

Unify 4.40 Font 2 points win
4/5 Hills,Sky

7 points staked on the day

Sam

Sams Specials - All 2 points win - advised split stakes between Bookie price and BFSP

Mithqaal 2.00 York
4/1 Fred,Totesport,7/2 Black Type,100/30 365
Great Order 2.35 York
100/30 Sky,11/4 Black Type
Bally Lagan 4.05 Hexham
4/1 Hills,Coral,365
St Michel 4.10 Newm
13/2 Sky,VC,Black Type

Sams Specials
Kindly 6.15 Wolv 2 points win
3/1 365,VC,B Type,Sky

Fullon Clarets 4.40 Catt 1 point e/way
16/1 Hills,Coral,Lads,365

Growl 2.00 Ascot 0.25 points e/way
80/1 Paddy,365



Hit It A Bomb 3.10 Ascot 0.50 points e/way
25/1 365,Sky,Lads,B Type

5.50 points staked on the day
Sam