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kw
16 Aug 11 12:18
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 459 | Blogger: kw's blog
Been posting latest selections on Twitter ( wlto1 ) and been ok. Would appreciate any thoughts on following these type of horses. You will have to believe me but  you can check on Twitter. Results so far Sunday -- Dunowen Point - 9/4, Sharadiyn - 5/2. Monday -- Dannios - 4/6, Conicas Lad - 9/2, Choral Festival - LOSER 7/2, Bravo King - LOSER 9/1, Swendab - 11/2.

Todays selections:

Grey Command ( 3.15 )
Highlife Dancer ( 3.30 )
Bolodenka ( 4.15 )
The Foxes Decree ( 5.10 )
Whats for Pudding ( 5.15 )
Wotatomboy ( 5.30 )

Probably all blow up now but have been playing this for some time. Current profit + 14.42 points
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Report Wicked Whisper November 22, 2011 11:59 AM GMT
I think you're being too pedantic. Winner last time out is fair enough, but 5th on the run before? That stuff is generally irrelevant.

5,6,7 and 8,9,F,PU etc. should generally be lumped into one. The only one which has a big factor IMO is 1st on the run before which affects the odds more than it should.
Report kw November 22, 2011 12:10 PM GMT
Thanks for comment WW. I originally started looking at it this way to get the sample sizes in to what I thought were manageable chunks. I also decided to split Hcps and non hcps whereas perhaps there should be more race type categories.I will look at splitting categories and not previous to win run although this may take some time. If this results in improvement then will adopt and advise when.

Thanks for being interested.
Report deadbrain59 November 22, 2011 12:18 PM GMT
KW,all you need to know,is lto forget the rest your tying yourselfin knots ,up in class-4lbs down in class+4 jmps 1lb per length,your selection today is thrown in.good luckCool
Report kw November 22, 2011 1:00 PM GMT
Sorry Heather Royal fell but it did kinda validate my phylosophy.
Report TOTALITARIAN November 22, 2011 1:18 PM GMT
KW. thanks for the reply, how do you validate/justify a selection not having run for 263 days?
Report TOTALITARIAN November 22, 2011 1:19 PM GMT
sorry KW. jus re-read the reply!
Report madhatters November 22, 2011 1:29 PM GMT
Take Cover 2.10 Suffers
Not exposed yet, got the pen - not being asked to do anything it hasn't already done
Rare AW for me

Endeavor 3.30 Sedge - worth a flutter
Sydney Cove - newish stable with pro jock again
Dabble both at prices

GL with yours
Report deadbrain59 November 22, 2011 1:32 PM GMT
tot how do you justify, not putting up a selection?.ConfusedConfused
Report madhatters November 22, 2011 2:12 PM GMT
A DB Grooler Happy
Report kevdartsking November 22, 2011 2:14 PM GMT
2.10 southwell take cover 1.88 get in lovely cheers dbGrin
Report deadbrain59 November 22, 2011 2:14 PM GMT
tittot,Tongue OutTongue OutTongue OutTongue OutTongue OutTongue OutTongue OutTongue OutWink
Report kevdartsking November 22, 2011 2:14 PM GMT
holy grailGrin
Report deadbrain59 November 22, 2011 2:16 PM GMT
aw strikes again.cheersCool
Report kw November 22, 2011 2:35 PM GMT
Well done DB. I do follow yours as well when they don't clashWink
Report deadbrain59 November 22, 2011 3:02 PM GMT
thanks KW, watch yours in running, good luck.
Report deadbrain59 November 22, 2011 3:31 PM GMT
shouting that one home ,kw very unlucky.Shocked
Report madhatters November 23, 2011 1:55 AM GMT
Back to virtual levels for the Hat Happy

Dabblers heading for the bin Laugh

Place would have saved you KW Happy
Report Tightfisted November 23, 2011 9:28 AM GMT
Woop Woop - 6:05 Kemp
Report deadbrain59 November 23, 2011 9:48 AM GMT
tight,kempton dog track,mdn to handicap,-2 neg,ran there once btn 20length+,good luck with that one.Mischief
Report kw November 23, 2011 11:01 AM GMT
Morning all. Yesterday showed how your luck can run. On a beaten horse. The probable winner falls but hampers your selection enough to get beat a head by a rag.... Still life goes on.

Only one certain selection today and a couple with some strange qualifying conditions which I will post if they do make it on to the list.

Todays selection

Wetherby - 1.30 - Sea of Thunder ( sys 296 )- going (-1)
Report deadbrain59 November 23, 2011 11:13 AM GMT
KW, decent pick+2lbs,ex irish,3 horse race,good luck i will watch in running.Mischief
Report deadbrain59 November 23, 2011 1:14 PM GMT
hello tittot,are you there?.CoolCool
Report taipan501 November 23, 2011 1:35 PM GMT
hg= 1.35
Report taipan501 November 23, 2011 1:42 PM GMT
winnerCool
Report taipan501 November 23, 2011 1:44 PM GMT
anybody on? evens bf, 2/5 bookies
Report BeatTheHandicapper November 23, 2011 2:42 PM GMT
Dusky Bob going for hat-trick. Thoughts?
Report taipan501 November 23, 2011 2:51 PM GMT
when?
Report deadbrain59 November 23, 2011 3:34 PM GMT
sorry KW-16Plain
Report deadbrain59 November 23, 2011 6:13 PM GMT
well done tight,somebody found a winner to keep the thread going.Cool
Report madhatters November 23, 2011 9:17 PM GMT
Kempers the place for LTO's today Shocked
That show up as any special traits KW ?
Will now Grin

Did you check out those f/casts KW ?
27, 10, 16 & 4 today
5 duffers
Report deadbrain59 November 24, 2011 7:43 AM GMT
hello tittot,hows this for cherry picking,32 wlto yesterday,level on all,45win total=13 pts profit,40per cent on turnover.heres another cherry pick,triple charm one bet betfair 7/4 available,175per cent on turnover,heres anotherstat,tittot selections on this thread ZERO wins ZERO,profit on turnover ZERO.heres another stat tightfisted debut call won 5'1 500 per cent on turnover.have a good day yaall,Cool
Report deadbrain59 November 24, 2011 7:44 AM GMT
mad its still a dump/.Plain
Report kw November 24, 2011 11:32 AM GMT
Todays selections:

Uttox - 2.00 Mangonel (sys 118) - going (-1)
        2.35 Mighty Monty (sys 133) - going - 0

Taunton - 4.00 Jaya Bella (sys 319) - going (-1)

Newbury - 3.20 Right Stuff ( sys 140 ) - going - 0

There is also a possible in the 1.35 @ Newbury which I will post prior to race if it is a qualifier.

Good Luck
Report deadbrain59 November 24, 2011 11:43 AM GMT
thight fisted +6
Report deadbrain59 November 24, 2011 12:03 PM GMT
KW right stuff up in class +8 positive,mighty monty -10 neg ,j bella-10 neg,right stuff your best chance on paper good luck.Plain
Report deadbrain59 November 24, 2011 4:08 PM GMT
KW -20,if you back negative weights you get negative results.PlainPlain
Report TOTALITARIAN November 24, 2011 9:28 PM GMT
KW. -20, you must be losing?
Report deadbrain59 November 24, 2011 11:05 PM GMT
no end to losing runs.Shocked
Report kw November 25, 2011 11:03 AM GMT
Losing run doing credibility no good at all. It will break though.

Todays selections

Newbury 1.00 - Dark and Dangerous ( 285)
        3.50 - Mono Man ( 318 )

Musselborough - 2.55 Amazing Star ( 137 )

good luck all.
Report deadbrain59 November 25, 2011 11:44 AM GMT
amazing star negative with me kw good luck.Plain
Report deadbrain59 November 25, 2011 11:47 AM GMT
so is dark and dangerous.
Report deadbrain59 November 25, 2011 4:02 PM GMT
negative bets negative results,sort your weights out,gimme had the hazy tom form a stand out at the price,KW -23.Crazy
Report JOCI Club November 26, 2011 12:00 PM GMT
OK let's get to it:

Newcastle

12:00 Tiptoeaway
Report JOCI Club November 26, 2011 12:09 PM GMT
OK let's get to it:

Newcastle

12:00 Tiptoeaway 2nd


Bangor

12:10 Peddlers Cross


Towcester

12:25 On Trend


Newbury

12:20 Horsham Lad
Report deadbrain59 November 26, 2011 12:25 PM GMT
might post one later on not the 110 though?.Excited
Report JOCI Club November 26, 2011 12:27 PM GMT
OK let's get to it:

Newcastle

12:00 Tiptoeaway 2nd
12:35 Danny John Boy
13:10 Allthekingshorses
13:45 O Crotaigh
14:20 Overturn (NAP)
14:55 Master Murphy
15:30 Humbie

Bangor

12:10 Peddlers Cross 1st
12:45 Titeuf De Tierce
13:20 Oscar Prairie
13:55 Sydney Paget
14:25 The Weatherman
15:00 Johns Spirit
15:35 Brave Alliance

Towcester

12:25 On Trend
13:00 Prickles
13:35 Knockalongi
14:10 Noble Witness
14:45 Valid Point
15:20 Caspar of Tarsus
15:50 A Heart Beats On


Newbury

12:20 Horsham Lad F
12:55 Prospect Wells
13:30 Wyck Hill
14:05 Rumble Of Thunder
14:35 Big Buck's
15:10 Michel Le Bon
15:45 Dinarius
Report deadbrain59 November 26, 2011 12:32 PM GMT
made all well done joci,greened up in runningCool
Report JOCI Club November 26, 2011 12:45 PM GMT
OK let's get to it:

Newcastle

12:00 Tiptoeaway 2nd
12:35 Danny John Boy Unpl
13:10 Allthekingshorses
13:45 O Crotaigh
14:20 Overturn (NAP)
14:55 Master Murphy
15:30 Humbie

Bangor

12:10 Peddlers Cross 1st
12:45 Titeuf De Tierce
13:20 Oscar Prairie
13:55 Sydney Paget
14:25 The Weatherman
15:00 Johns Spirit
15:35 Brave Alliance

Towcester

12:25 On Trend 1st 15/8
13:00 Prickles
13:35 Knockalongi
14:10 Noble Witness
14:45 Valid Point
15:20 Caspar of Tarsus
15:50 A Heart Beats On


Newbury

12:20 Horsham Lad F
12:55 Prospect Wells
13:30 Wyck Hill
14:05 Rumble Of Thunder
14:35 Big Buck's
15:10 Michel Le Bon
15:45 Dinarius
Report deadbrain59 November 26, 2011 1:03 PM GMT
im laying the 110.
Report deadbrain59 November 26, 2011 1:07 PM GMT
lay 2.5 in running.Plain
Report deadbrain59 November 26, 2011 1:20 PM GMT
t dt -24lbs, all the kings horses,-12lbs neg.Cool
Report deadbrain59 November 26, 2011 1:20 PM GMT
t dt -24lbs, all the kings horses,-12lbs neg.Cool
Report TOTALITARIAN November 26, 2011 1:50 PM GMT
KW. Selections ?
Report deadbrain59 November 26, 2011 2:22 PM GMT
didnt realise you could get betfair in broadmoor?.
Report deadbrain59 November 26, 2011 2:33 PM GMT
were you watching that one tittot,pachomento on the bridle,holy grail.LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report JOCI Club November 26, 2011 2:54 PM GMT
OK let's get to it:

Newcastle

12:00 Tiptoeaway 2nd
12:35 Danny John Boy Unpl
13:10 Allthekingshorses Unpl
13:45 O Crotaigh Unpl
14:20 Overturn (NAP) 1st 7/4
14:55 Master Murphy
15:30 Humbie

Bangor

12:10 Peddlers Cross 1st 2/13
12:45 Titeuf De Tierce Unpl
13:20 Oscar Prairie Unpl
13:55 Sydney Paget 1st 5/4
14:25 The Weatherman Unpl
15:00 Johns Spirit
15:35 Brave Alliance

Towcester

12:25 On Trend 1st 15/8
13:00 Prickles Unpl
13:35 Knockalongi Unpl
14:10 Noble Witness Unpl
14:45 Valid Point 1st 5/4
15:20 Caspar of Tarsus
15:50 A Heart Beats On


Newbury

12:20 Horsham Lad F
12:55 Prospect Wells 1st 1/2
13:30 Wyck Hill Unpl
14:05 Rumble Of Thunder Unpl
14:35 Big Buck's 1st 1/8
15:10 Michel Le Bon
15:45 Dinarius
Report deadbrain59 November 26, 2011 2:54 PM GMT
tittot where are you,valid point on the bridle,hope you did not miss that one.LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report deadbrain59 November 26, 2011 2:55 PM GMT
well done joci on your nap.CoolCool
Report JOCI Club November 26, 2011 3:54 PM GMT
OK let's get to it:

Newcastle

12:00 Tiptoeaway 2nd
12:35 Danny John Boy Unpl
13:10 Allthekingshorses Unpl
13:45 O Crotaigh Unpl
14:20 Overturn (NAP) 1st 7/4
14:55 Master Murphy Unpl
15:30 Humbie Unpl

Bangor

12:10 Peddlers Cross 1st 2/13
12:45 Titeuf De Tierce Unpl
13:20 Oscar Prairie Unpl
13:55 Sydney Paget 1st 5/4
14:25 The Weatherman Unpl
15:00 Johns Spirit 2nd
15:35 Brave Alliance 2nd

Towcester

12:25 On Trend 1st 15/8
13:00 Prickles Unpl
13:35 Knockalongi Unpl
14:10 Noble Witness Unpl
14:45 Valid Point 1st 5/4
15:20 Caspar of Tarsus Unpl
15:50 A Heart Beats On


Newbury

12:20 Horsham Lad F
12:55 Prospect Wells 1st 1/2
13:30 Wyck Hill Unpl
14:05 Rumble Of Thunder Unpl
14:35 Big Buck's 1st 1/8
15:10 Michel Le Bon Unpl
15:45 Dinarius Unpl
Report deadbrain59 November 26, 2011 10:05 PM GMT
split the list ,you will see the positives won the negatives lost.jociMischief
Report madhatters November 27, 2011 12:54 AM GMT
No luck again KW - hope it changes soon

Had a few days away Grin
Spending my ill gottens from here Laugh

Missed a grooler it seems DB Cry Fook !!
Next time Laugh

Not looking to put the mockers on your selections Joci
But .... are they lto ? is this the right place for them or more so the general gg forum ?
What we trying to do here is weed out the shoite & focus on the beezneez
You ain't hitting the ankles so far so shall avoid Sad
No probs anyone posting but have to be selective bearing in mind the header

No idea on DB's weight thingummy
But seems to be weeding out the riff-raff so far
So worth a view KW ?
DB - can you send KW your thoughts & figures ?

My point of view so far is to only include this years form - be it good or carp
May miss a few winners - proved SadSadSad As KW has stated
But can pick up a few good uns HappyHappy
What i am trying to do is rule out the 'unknown' & focus on the ready to race
Really don't agree with KW picks from long term
Ditto Total idiots -but fair point in my opinion from him - imo

I won't back or lay any horse that has not run recently
You never know what it may do
So on that basis - its a bye
I may use them as a bonus runner to my fave lay etc
But only when i have all the card stacked in my favour Laugh
Slim pickens at the mo -  but healthy resuts so far
Report top2rated November 27, 2011 4:40 AM GMT
deadbrain59

"t dt -24lbs, all the kings horses,-12lbs neg"

Where do you get the -24lbs and -12lbs from?
Report comingupthehill November 27, 2011 6:26 AM GMT
kw - dont stop this thread - youve stuck at it,your persistance is heart warming.

i wish you my support

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qW8DMRIVIPk&feature=related
Report comingupthehill November 27, 2011 6:39 AM GMT
i will do todays for you,to help you get back on track


1.20 frascati park
2.25 victory gunner
1.35 baaalaurete
2.40 speed master


at least your trying
Report deadbrain59 November 27, 2011 10:41 AM GMT
posted weights on here tokw,no reply.to help,i do my own handicapping.its simple.it must be if im doing it?.Silly
Report deadbrain59 November 27, 2011 10:57 AM GMT
top 2 rated what weight would youalot to frankel,if it was entered in a hcp class 2 race,based on its run against canford cliffs.Mischief
Report deadbrain59 November 27, 2011 10:59 AM GMT
keep posting joci.
Report deadbrain59 November 27, 2011 11:40 AM GMT
coming up the hill,v gunner nr,frascati park +2baalaurate+7 claimer,speed master +-0,good luck.Plain
Report top2rated November 27, 2011 11:44 AM GMT
deadbrain59

Depends on the conditions of the race but normally the highest rated horse (i.e. Frankel in your example) would carry 9 stone 10 lbs.
Report deadbrain59 November 27, 2011 11:59 AM GMT
joci,why did you leave out peckhamecho,225 ban sat.a cert?.Cool
Report oj1234 November 27, 2011 12:02 PM GMT
Scared
Report deadbrain59 November 27, 2011 12:07 PM GMT
tp2,i havent given any fig flat?,what weight all do you use flat ie up down in class,pounds per length?.
Report JOCI Club November 27, 2011 1:25 PM GMT
Just the NAPS today:

Carlisle 15:30 Fair Spin (NAP)

Navan 14:20 Leggy Lad (NB)
Report deadbrain59 November 27, 2011 1:26 PM GMT
cuth,1up 2togo.Plain
Report deadbrain59 November 27, 2011 1:52 PM GMT
155 k south africa 1.79.
Report deadbrain59 November 27, 2011 2:52 PM GMT
on the lineSad.310 ire/.?Mischief
Report deadbrain59 November 27, 2011 3:05 PM GMT
saver 2nd fav.
Report deadbrain59 November 27, 2011 3:12 PM GMT
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report top2rated November 27, 2011 9:18 PM GMT
deadbrain59

Would take up too much time to post all the relevant figures for flat and jumps races at all the different distances and courses but generally speaking I use the formula Class movement + (adjustment factor * weight movement).

Sometimes it works.

Most times it doesn't.

Laugh
Report deadbrain59 November 28, 2011 11:31 AM GMT
top 2,frankel would have to lump 12 stone 1mile handicap2.ive got azione 255 fl 2lbs in agree?.Mischief
Report deadbrain59 November 28, 2011 11:34 AM GMT
keep it simple,good recent form,Plain
Report top2rated November 28, 2011 11:49 AM GMT
deadbrain, Azione +0/-0 on my figures believe it or not!

Poor race, but I do have Timetoring +15.

May be worth a small w & p bet.

Good luck today.
Report deadbrain59 November 28, 2011 12:43 PM GMT
beets neg,top.on last night 2.3 win 1.3 place.Mischief
Report TOTALITARIAN November 28, 2011 1:09 PM GMT
KW. selections ?
Report deadbrain59 November 28, 2011 1:39 PM GMT
how did you type that in with a straightjacket on?.Devil
Report madhatters November 28, 2011 9:07 PM GMT
Out of the zone today DB
Kicked in the goolies Sad
Report deadbrain59 November 28, 2011 9:36 PM GMT
i aways collect read post mad.Happy
Report deadbrain59 November 28, 2011 9:44 PM GMT
top2 rated+15?wtn place -2[:plain:
Report madhatters November 29, 2011 12:16 PM GMT
French Ties 12.20 Sth
Report madhatters November 29, 2011 12:18 PM GMT
Must have missed it DB
Report deadbrain59 November 29, 2011 12:55 PM GMT
dead thread.
Report madhatters November 29, 2011 3:44 PM GMT
Back to minus 1 for the hat
Report Facts November 29, 2011 5:28 PM GMT
agree db. As a dodo !
Report TOTALITARIAN November 30, 2011 10:09 AM GMT
KW.I know you have mentioned having health problems recently and I just wanted to say that I hope you are ok and all is well.
                                                          You have always put your selections up win or lose and even though I have always doubted the ability of your system to actually succeed, I have enjoyed monitoring its performance.
                                        Best Wishes!
Report deadbrain59 November 30, 2011 11:15 AM GMT
tittot,LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report madhatters November 30, 2011 12:32 PM GMT
Bankstair 3.10 Utty
Wester Ross 2.50 Here
Report madhatters November 30, 2011 4:43 PM GMT
Minus 3 for Hatter Sad
Back tomorrow Laugh

Hope alls well KW & you been away cracking the system Happy
Report deadbrain59 November 30, 2011 7:47 PM GMT
16 bets 11 winners +5 for month,below my standard of 80 per cent.Surprised
Report madhatters December 1, 2011 7:54 PM GMT
WD DB on the grooler today Happy
Report deadbrain59 December 1, 2011 8:21 PM GMT
thanks mad,bit short,went evens in running.Happy
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