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winners last time out system
winners last time out system
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Replies: 1,787
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ha, ha, ha , ha ,ha, ha!!!!!! that was funny! enjoyed that
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that was a gimme lay,aka sariska,bustkins[;)]
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yeahyeahwhatever
Picking LTO winners without analysing their likely performance in the race they're about to run isn't so far removed from the ridiculous system above. that's what I think anyway I use KPI's =winners in either of last 2 races,Course form,favoured in Sp F/c and usually Class 1 - 4, preferably Group 1 Tracks. I profit c400pts annually. |
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no after timing sir
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I'm hopefully adding to the debate.The 'aftertiming' comment is irrelevant.
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the after timing was aimed at deadbrain, sorry for confusion
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ha ha ha i enjoyed that?.
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you would
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i have an interest in tara warrior if it does not drift?.
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put one up taipan.
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put one what up, deadbrain?
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place full of goons..
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if you're talking about a selection deadbrain, if you had bothered reading my post at 12.35 and yeah yeahs post at 2.01, you would have your "put one up" and two winners!!
not like you coming here 20mins after a race was won and saying its a gimme...... |
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systems can work, if you are strict and trust the system.
i have a system that throws up very few bets. since i started this at the beginning of 2010 the system shows: qualifiers 49 winners 33 (67%) placed 40 (81.5%) roi 92.27% wont get rich from it too quickly (for obvious reasons) but using £100 stakes i have done ok. at SP this would have netted profit of £4500. considered using the martingale method with this (biggest losing sequence turned out to be 3 on 1 occasion and 2 on another occasion, remaining 11 were followed by winners). This would have shown a profit of near £8000. i didnt back every single runner, but as i said, for big bets for me it pays its way |
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amazes me these winning systems why the users arnt wealthy?
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cos i am married
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how does that hinder anyone?
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you dont know my missus.
that aside, my maximum bet is £100. turned a couple of k profit using the system, which is good for me and i am happy with it. if i backed all of them, then this would have been £4500. there is a reason the p/l is not a lot higher. this is also the reason the system works. if i put £1k on every horse then obviously it would have netted £45k which sounds a whole lot better. but i am not selling my system, nor bullsh!tting that I won £45k in a year and a half, just showing that systems can and sometimes do work. |
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i'll giv you £500 for a half share.
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taipan my apoligy
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accepted deadbrain
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gay grooming imo
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no money MrHunt. give me 4 apples, 2 oranges a banana and a kiwi and the system is yours
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foydc...2 melons
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deal
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0 0
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Shall we flag up every time one loses.
It is utter nonsence Things like LTO wins can be used to formulate an oppinion but to use it as a blanket way of backing winners is nuts. Every horse is different and many will NEVER win if turned out again quickly, trust me I know this from experience. Finding winner is a puzzle with many factors, trying to find a system based on ONE factor is impossible GL |
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fair enough, zippie
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zippie button it ydsc
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zippie: I don't think kw is just using winLTO. He does have other filters, but he hasn't told us what they are... which is fair enough.
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Hunt, blow me ydfc
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dippie the sippie is a propa dc
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I love who I am "Gangsta -tough guy - fake bet poster " [;)]
Post ya bet ta ! Eva posted a fake one [;)] Tattoo, the plane is coming soon |
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won much lately dippie?
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Message from Betfair pharmacy for Mr Hunt
Your repeat prescription is ready for collection [url=http://www.bbcode.org/images/lubeck.jpg][/url] |
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kw:
Just realised your selection for 9:10 is running in a handicap, so I'll add my views if you don't mind. Sopran Nad: The change of blinkers has certainly had an impact... or is it down to the softer going??? I find it hard to put down money off a Southwell run hoping that it will be replicated on different going... I don't dislike him enough to plc lay him, but I would win lay him. GL. |
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havent looked at the race yet, but SOUTHWELL form!!!!!!!!!! its a no, no......
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ykickamoocow
Date Joined: 01 Jul 10 When:24 Aug 11 10:43 Joined: Date Joined: 01 Jul 10 |Topic/replies:452|Blogger:ykickamoocow's blog bets wins %wins returns @betfair est odds 2004-2010all 64179 11254 17.5% 97.4% this is results of last time out winners winning again since 2004 from adrian massey site...nothing stands out with only one year breaking even and to betfair s.p. to bookie sp return was 83.9%...this is wat ur up against....even filtering shows mixed results.... I like a challenge. I ran your basic test on the A.M. site (http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/db3/thaccess.php)& a few things did stand out to me. All weather racing, in particular, stuck out like a sore thumb. So, I ran a few tests, & with a bit of filtering came up with these results :- . . . . 21 Feb 2011 5:00 Wolverhampton LEAN MACHINE 3-1 3/6 4.3 18599 2 Mar 2011 8:10 Kempton CAPTAIN COOL 7-2 5/9 5.4 18499 2 Mar 2011 8:10 Kempton SIR BOSS 9-2 1/9 6.0 18999 9 Mar 2011 6:30 Kempton ROUND WON 3-1 2/6 4.0 18899 9 Mar 2011 7:30 Kempton SIR BOSS 9-2 1/8 6.5 19447 12 Mar 2011 4:55 Wolverhampton COTTON KING 3-1 9/9 4.9 19347 Totals Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds All Selections 251 78 31.1% 177.1% Results broken down by Year Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds 2004 8 2 25.0% 123.5% 2005 13 4 30.8% 187.3% 2006 24 6 25.0% 152.5% 2007 42 11 26.2% 151.0% 2008 50 21 42.0% 233.0% 2009 45 9 20.0% 121.5% 2010 51 19 37.3% 196.9% 2011 18 6 33.3% 214.6% A £19347 profit (pre-commission I presume, don't imagine A.M. factors this in)on an outlay of £25100 to a £100 level stake, over 7.5 years, ain't too shabby. Here are the filters to use on the A.M. site if you want to check it out :- Select favourite or other - 1st, 2nd or 3rd fav (including joint & co) Select Year(s) - Select all Race Distance - 7 furlongs or further (i.e. omit 5 & 6 furlong sprints) Race Type(flat) - omit Selling Stakes/Claiming Stakes/Amateur races Number of Runners in the Race - 5,6,7,8 or 9 runners Going - AW Standard only Race Age Category - Omit '3yo only' Sexes of Horses in Race - omit 'Female only' Course - Kempton, Lingfield, Wolverhampton only Starting Price - between 3/1 & 15/2 Finishing Position in most recent race - 1st only Age of Horse - between 2 & 7 (inclusive) Sex of Horse - Male only Days since last Win - between 1 - 30 Races since Last Win - 0 (won LTO) Number of Rides of Jockey in last 12 months - over 400 (i.e. boxes 401-600 & 600+) Use estimated Betfair Odds Warning, warning, warning!!!! - past results are no guarantee of future profits. Personally, I've never taken to rigid system selections, 'cos they tend to throw up horses I wouldn't dream of backing via 'normal' race analysis/assessment. However, any systemites out there may like to have a play with this & add/subtract their own filters as they see fit, although some of the seemingly 'obvious' filters, like running over same distance as LTO win, do NOT increase returns on these selections! There are few selections, & slim pickings, May through Sept. Like all back-fitted systems, the chance of these selections continuing to show these results long-term is somewhat suspect, so if anyone chooses to play this 'system', do so with the utmost caution. I shall now stick my tin hat on & await the incoming flak attack! |
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thats very interesting...
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