Results ?

No. of sels
No. of wins
Av sp.
Stake
Return
P&L

Ok not a great day. With some of the  " perhaps " selections qualifying we have stakes of 10 units and returns of 6.5. Net loss of 3.5 units giving a running total profit of 13.08 points.( this is also the weekly profit ). Assuming £10 units. Turnover £350 Profit £120.82. A return on investment of 34.52% which is not to shabby. As regards each way betting I will calculate the numbers for tomorrow ( need to check place terms ) but it looks like a profit of over 25% on turnover was achieved which would be more than satisfactory particularly as it removes a lot of the stress of long losing runs. Back tomorrow

Is like I said earlier Kw.... toughest day all week for finding winners and like you said....  it's a long term game.  Stick to it... will be interesting to see.

Todays selections

2.30 N.A -- Gan On
3.30 N.A -- Ethiopia
4.10 Folk -- Sermons Mount
5.15 Folk -- Medaille D'or

N/R's possibly still in the equation somewhere, and look to have been accounted for within the turn over... I think?

yesterday saute drifted badly,second fav won,would not back any these selections today ,but good luck anyway.

Double the win stake instead of each way = higher profit imo.

you selected GAN today ,but benbane head was also a lto winner in the race,it had mccoy on and was shorter in the betting - whats youre selection process when their are more than 1 lto winners in the race.

i to know this wont work - just trying to understand how your going to fail,

Wd KW
Not sure many could help you with filters as you asked
As you don't reveal the ones you are currently using

All comments have been taken on board. With regard to more than 1 LTO winner in race. The Filters will remove many of these from consideration but I still may back more than 1 selection in the race. This to me is a mathmatical game. I am working from over 5 years stats and in general am backing approx. 10% of LTO winners. Many are quoting form which although important to others is not to me. What I am saying is that if a particular mini system will produce a 40% strike rate at @ say an average price of 7/2  then this will provide a good return. I can probably improve on the systen even further if you formites can sort more of the wheat from the chaff. Some of the filters are on days since win, position in the market, track , position and price in previous race to win. Like I say complicated. If it really works then I will upload the whole shebang. Time will tell.

In the meantime todays selections

Ham 4.30 --- Sea Salt
Ham 5.05 --- I'm Super Too
Her 6.30 --- Slip
Win 6.50 --- Crimson Queen
Win 7.50 --- Colincas Lad

4 of your selections were unplaced re,y y whatever?.

Ham 5.05 --- I'm Super Too


Was the bet for LTO winners imo !

of course a system of backing lto winners works. if it doesnt what hope do we have of ever winning??? backing losers!!!!!!!
you are on the right track my friend, you just have to use your own initiative as regards which ones you bet and not rely on stupid filters...........you have a brain, don't you...use it! and that win by 3/4 lenght or more is rubbish.. jockeys try to win by as little as possible so as not to go up in rating... hope all your picks are winners

and a filter that includes sea salt just aint working..lay of the day under the conditions...i would back henri prends garde a 1000 times over sea salt..re jig it...

sorry,yy w,iwas reffering to your previous commenttime 19 09,

if the rain arrives george baker might not run and i would lay it if it does.

sorry kw not for me but good luck anyway?.

kw - an alternative selection :-

8.00 Warwick  O Ma Lad  9/4

On a line through Sally Friday, O Ma Lad has about 8lb in hand of the favourite, Sugar Hiccup.

O Ma Lad's head 2nd to Whiplash Willie, Oct 31st 2010, off level weights, is the best form on offer here.

The selection's overall form looks a bit patchy, but the step up in trip looks beneficial to me, & none of it's rivals have ever won a race, whilst the selection has placed 3 times in 5 starts, with a Maiden win last time out.

9/4 to beat just 5 rivals looks fair value to me.

there isnt an exact science in racing as sometimes a horse copes with an increase in weight & sometimes he doesnt, i look at people everyday saying who will win & in some races every horse is predicted to win so someone will be right, i would rather lay ( as i do ) & even that i dont strictly stick to a plan as when you get a run as we all do it mounts up very quickly, But good luck to you all today

Ok, well as you've asked for other views, here are mine.  I only do handicaps so nothing for 3:30.

4:15 - Springaway
First sight he looks good, 5lb claimer, win off further distance... BUT (you knew there'd be a but didn't you....) his OR is + 9 and when you compare plc runs off a similar OR against other horses he's not that strong... Lepold has done much better, yes it was a while ago but he did it once, he may do it again :-)
Might plc but can't see him romping home by a country mile.


4:30 - George Baker
Pluses: riding at highest ever OR which is a big plus, but none of those recent plcs have been in what I'd say are hard races, and when he did have a bit of weight on his back (23-May), even with a 7lb claim he did nowt.  That race was also at Leics which doesn't inspire confidence.  OR +4 from LTO too.

Against him, well all other runners have experience of running off a similar mark as today.  Frognal has a 2nd off a higher mark, and it was in a much harder race... but he's changed trainer since then so that's an unknown.  Also like Be a Devil, good plcs on harder races, different surface, going.. he seems able to handle a lot.

In summary, I think GB has some serious competition, BUT as he's running off his highest ever OR he's coped with everything the handicapper has thrown at him so far. ... I wouldn't go so far as to lay him, but I wouldn't say he's the strongest contender.  There you go, nothing like sitting on the fence is there!


any feedback much appreciated