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Been posting latest selections on Twitter ( wlto1 ) and been ok. Would appreciate any thoughts on following these type of horses. You will have to believe me but you can check on Twitter. Results so far Sunday -- Dunowen Point - 9/4, Sharadiyn - 5/2. Monday -- Dannios - 4/6, Conicas Lad - 9/2, Choral Festival - LOSER 7/2, Bravo King - LOSER 9/1, Swendab - 11/2.
Todays selections:
Grey Command ( 3.15 )
Highlife Dancer ( 3.30 )
Bolodenka ( 4.15 )
The Foxes Decree ( 5.10 )
Whats for Pudding ( 5.15 )
Wotatomboy ( 5.30 )
Probably all blow up now but have been playing this for some time. Current profit + 14.42 points
Todays selections:
Grey Command ( 3.15 )
Highlife Dancer ( 3.30 )
Bolodenka ( 4.15 )
The Foxes Decree ( 5.10 )
Whats for Pudding ( 5.15 )
Wotatomboy ( 5.30 )
Probably all blow up now but have been playing this for some time. Current profit + 14.42 points
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Too scientific an approach for me, but good luck.
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It's not profitable to back them all - you have to be a bit selective.
I wrote a blog posting on this subject here: http://community.betfair.com/pittsburgh_phil/blog/2011/08/16/last-time-out-winners-system |
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bolodenka.[;)]
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I usd to something similar about 28yrs ago....winners in the last 7 days, with some other stuff thrown in.
seemed to work ok....but not alot of bets..the secret is discipline[;)] |
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Forgotten this one, my Uncle Jack swore by it (in use well prior to Koi above). Used ONLY for the first two months of the National Hunt season. God knows when that is now, or whether it would work under todays penalty system.
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I am being very selective. There are several for instance that do not qualify today. Main sort is on time since last run
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Older horses are more likely to be aimed by trainers to win just one race as they know time is running out. Trainers looking to sneak another win out of them are likely to bring them out again within a week or 2.
So i always look to lay 8yr olds+ that won last time out but running after a few weeks or more. But thats just me  |
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Close but no cigar. Still a small profit of 0.16 points. Running total + 14.58 points. Back tomorrow
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I came up with a laying system based on this where you lay the horse if the ground description isn't exactly the same in the horse's current run as it was the previous time it won. It does have a negative aspect though such as what the description states in your newspaper of choice (bearing in mind it's printed the night before) can sometimes differ from the actual official going and from that as listed on the RP results section after the race had been run.
You can also back the ones to win where the ground description is the same too. |
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A small profit yesterday with winners at 7/2 and 4/6 which is better than losing.Current profit is 14.58 points. Although very could racing today with plenty of LTO winners only 1 fulfills all my criteria so todays selection is:
2.20 Notts ---- Crimson Queen |
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I believe you have stumbled upon what is known in the inner circles of racing as the Holy Grail.
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Doubt the Holy Grail exists but I have made profits over the last year or so whilst gradually refining the various sorts.Tried laying the non qualifiers originally as well but laying was too time consuming. These figures are now based solely on SP so makes things easy particularly if using best odds guaranteed bookies.
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If there is an older "system" than this around then I'm unaware of it.
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Wasn't Colin Davey's Factor 4 iffy system basically this with the winner having to reappear within 4 days?
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Dont knock kw. He's not losing. The problem with this type of system is that because so many people are aware of it the selections end up overbacked and poor value.
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are you saying we should only start knocking him when he is losing ?!
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ive been doing this system, for 4years,you need to refine your selections,this comes with practice,bolodenka was the holy grail yesterday?.good luck you will win on this system,patience is the key.
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Crimson Queen -- Winner 85/40 Current profit 16.70 points
deadbrain59 thanks for the encouragement. I have been making staedy money but for some that is not enough obviously. retired now and used to work in the game. The only word that matters in betting is " Churn " but most punters dont realise it. |
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have backed sea moon now ante post for the ledger1.48,i think it will be odds on ,on the day.
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nice one kw
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It's all a waste of time..trust me
hth |
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It may well blow up but has been gradually evolving. Things have to be tried and if I can make 5% + on churn which is currently the case then I am happy and so is the bank manager. Anyway there are quite a few selections today with a couple of races having 2 qualifiers in so we shall see.
Strat 3.20 - High Bird Humphrey 3.55 - I'm the Decider Fontwell 6.25 - Walls Way 6.55 Saute Southwell 8.10 Suddenly Susan Epsom 6.45 - Iulus and Shalloon 7.20 - Starwatch 7.50 - Desert Icon and George Baker Hopefully a few winners amongst them. |
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alla svelta 245 str,about 1.79.
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Well not too bad today. 2 non runners and 3 winners 9/4 13/8 and 4/1 and a 3 seconds that hit the bar. Anyway profit today 2.88 points giving a running total of 19.58 points since Sunday. Back tomorrow.
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Keep churning the winners out KW
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Not so many selections today but hopefully a winner or two
3.05 York --- Dux Scholar 4.40 Bangor --- Ostland and Solway Bay There are also a couple of possibles in the 4.50 York --- Lady Paris and Cool Minx but they should only be backed at MORE THAN 10/1 which at present is touch and go. If they are above this price near the off then they will be a bet. |
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Read - Always Back Winners - Stewart Simpson
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interesting thread.
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good going so far mate perhaps when adding a few filters even better
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Am already using dozens of filters. It has taken ages to filter this low. System is really many many mini systems around winners last time out that each produce perhaps 10 to 15 selections a year. All will not fail and this should leave a reasonable profit. Sorry to be vague but it is too complicated to put up. Will continue to post selections through thick and thin though.
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ok no problems cheers keep posting them up and hope keep winning
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Two close ups but no cigar. Don't think the York runners were qualifiers in the end so will ignore till can confirm.Unfortunately 3 point loss today. Running total now £16.58. May run an exercise to see how eway looks. Anybody any thoughts on each way betting in general. I suppose it eases the losing run pressure a bit. Back Tomorrow
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Todays selections are:-
3.20 Sandown --- Brevity 2.00 York --- Across the Rhine and Yaa Waal 4.10 Chester --- Berling 5.15 Chester --- Last Rose of Summer 2.15 Newton Ab --- Ongenstown Lad 6.40 Bath --- Secret Witness 6.00 Mkt Rasen --- Taaresh 7.30 Mkt Rasen --- Saute 9 selections in all. There are also 3 possibles that are price dependant: Bath 6.40 --- Prime Defender @ 2/1 or greater SP York 2.30 --- Kinyras @ 10/1 or less SP Market Rasen 7.30 --- Lets go Girls @ 10/1 or less SP Leave these as late as possible to check the market. I know this can be awkward but thats the rules as was shown yesterday. |
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Far far too many bets
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The racing is very competitive today, hardly a race worth less than 5k to the winner with the exception of Market Rasen. Usually days like these are bad for favourites.
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Probably but thats the way they fall. This is nothing to do with my opinion. It is pure stats and maths. My research says that over the long term following the rules will produce a very reasonable return on my investments. Only a long term trial will prove or not. I have used this for some time whilst working but as I am now retired the time has come for a full blown investigation in the public eye. Any help to further refine my selections will be much appretiated.
Just seen that Last Rose of Summer is a non runner by the way. |
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Not that I'm saying you're picking all favourites but don't be surprised if winners are harder than usual to find.
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kw 20 Aug 11 10:24
Probably but thats the way they fall. This is nothing to do with my opinion. It is pure stats and maths. My research says that over the long term following the rules will produce a very reasonable return on my investments. Only a long term trial will prove or not. I have used this for some time whilst working but as I am now retired the time has come for a full blown investigation in the public eye. Any help to further refine my selections will be much appretiated. Just seen that Last Rose of Summer is a non runner by the way. I agree with this statement wholeheartedly |
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Dont know if this helps or not but my system of yesteryear involving
last start winners included a filter that needed the contender to have won its last start by three quarters of a length or more. The idea was that if a horse was flogged to win in a close finish it may have taken something out of it for the next run. A margin of 3/4 length I thought was easier onthe horse, with more chance of it winning again. |