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31 Dec 10
19:46
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14 Apr 06
I am making a new years resolution to be 100% totally disciplined when it comes to gambling, It's not to bad now, but many years ago I used to, like many, chase my money and have spur of the moment stupid, stupid bet's without even anythought going into the selection, thankfully them days are long behind me, don't get me wrong if I ever go racing a little of my old self comes to the fore, but it's budgeted for accordingly. Starting from tomorrow, I'm going to start a thread/blog to try and double a starting bank of 100pts by the end of the year...to me that's £20 per point (£2000).
Unlike photo finish man / If.. I certainly won't be having a 1000pts max bet on 8-11 shot's, I will be posting my stake's in accordance to how strongly I fancy, whether there singles double's R/F or on occasion's multi bets(rare). half point unit's to my max bet of 5.... basically for me putting up a 5 pointer, it would mean having dinner with the Quinnlans !!! please feel free to (constructively) criticize, and feel free to leave your own input on any of my selections, and please remember these are just my humble opinions on trying to take the green stuff out of those bookies satchels.
All my bets will be posted the night before or early morning, if and when I see the right opportunity at (imo) the right price, I will post. I'm not trying to scam, or put anyone away, and at the end of the day it's only my time and effort I'd be wasting trawling through form etc..., which I enjoy doing regardless. I wish all the forumites a very happy and prosperous new year, as we go head to head against the enemy(bookies)
Best wishes from therobster for 2011
Unlike photo finish man / If.. I certainly won't be having a 1000pts max bet on 8-11 shot's, I will be posting my stake's in accordance to how strongly I fancy, whether there singles double's R/F or on occasion's multi bets(rare). half point unit's to my max bet of 5.... basically for me putting up a 5 pointer, it would mean having dinner with the Quinnlans !!! please feel free to (constructively) criticize, and feel free to leave your own input on any of my selections, and please remember these are just my humble opinions on trying to take the green stuff out of those bookies satchels.
All my bets will be posted the night before or early morning, if and when I see the right opportunity at (imo) the right price, I will post. I'm not trying to scam, or put anyone away, and at the end of the day it's only my time and effort I'd be wasting trawling through form etc..., which I enjoy doing regardless. I wish all the forumites a very happy and prosperous new year, as we go head to head against the enemy(bookies)
Best wishes from therobster for 2011
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Final bet day 338. 2pt win Premier Sagas 8-1 generally 1pt saver Skippers Brig 8-1 Ladbrokes 14.00 Kelso... both BOG write up to follow.....
Having put Nicky Richard’s Mister Marker up at a price last night I just can’t get away from the fact he may be ready to string some form together, and after revisiting the 2pm race again I’m prepared to have a bet on Premier Sagas, but have saved on his stable companion Skippers Brig.
I will start with Premier Sagas who could be ready to make his presence felt in the staying echelons this season, having on occasion’s in his previous one shown signs he could do well in this sphere. He made his seasonal bow at the beginning of last month, in a race he was running 9lb wrong at the weights, and although jumped novicey / sickly over a few obstacles early did warm to the task, and ended up running a very pleasing reappearance all thing’s considered. Sa Suffit & Tartan Snow(28lb wrong that day) were also in that race, with Sa Suffit finishing about 20 or so lengths in front of the selection , but bare in mind Sa Suffit can run very well fresh and was given a much harder race. For that reason I don’t think for one minute Premier Sagas should be double the price of that horse as many firms have them, and Ladbrokes have came the closest to my book(5’s+6’s), taking into consideration there was only 2pts between them in the betting Lto and meet’s him on 12lb better terms today it seems baffling why there is such a gulf in their respective prices.
With ground coming in his favour, and a course that clearly suits, he should well be in the mix should his jumping have come on for his sesonal bow.
Now onto Skippers Brig ridden by Brian Harding, who has rode Premier Saga’s plenty of times, including Lto, and it may well have been a very hard choice (presuming he had it). He did seem to need his race last year but has a very good record when fresh, and he’s another one very much at home on extremely testing ground. He has won on his only other previous visit to the venue when beating BallaBriggs of all horses over today’s trip, however was no match for that horse at Aintree, but none the less did finish a credible 9th demonstrating he is an extremely hardy stayer, and again 8-1 looking a shade bigger than his chance.
I will start with Premier Sagas who could be ready to make his presence felt in the staying echelons this season, having on occasion’s in his previous one shown signs he could do well in this sphere. He made his seasonal bow at the beginning of last month, in a race he was running 9lb wrong at the weights, and although jumped novicey / sickly over a few obstacles early did warm to the task, and ended up running a very pleasing reappearance all thing’s considered. Sa Suffit & Tartan Snow(28lb wrong that day) were also in that race, with Sa Suffit finishing about 20 or so lengths in front of the selection , but bare in mind Sa Suffit can run very well fresh and was given a much harder race. For that reason I don’t think for one minute Premier Sagas should be double the price of that horse as many firms have them, and Ladbrokes have came the closest to my book(5’s+6’s), taking into consideration there was only 2pts between them in the betting Lto and meet’s him on 12lb better terms today it seems baffling why there is such a gulf in their respective prices.
With ground coming in his favour, and a course that clearly suits, he should well be in the mix should his jumping have come on for his sesonal bow.
Now onto Skippers Brig ridden by Brian Harding, who has rode Premier Saga’s plenty of times, including Lto, and it may well have been a very hard choice (presuming he had it). He did seem to need his race last year but has a very good record when fresh, and he’s another one very much at home on extremely testing ground. He has won on his only other previous visit to the venue when beating BallaBriggs of all horses over today’s trip, however was no match for that horse at Aintree, but none the less did finish a credible 9th demonstrating he is an extremely hardy stayer, and again 8-1 looking a shade bigger than his chance.
Result day 337.
Pak Jack Un Pl -2pts
West End Rocker Won 10-1(14's adv) +17 1/2pts
Deep Purple Won 10-1(12's adv) +28 1/2 pts
Profit / Loss +44 pts
Total 295 pts
Pak Jack Un Pl -2pts
West End Rocker Won 10-1(14's adv) +17 1/2pts
Deep Purple Won 10-1(12's adv) +28 1/2 pts
Profit / Loss +44 pts
Total 295 pts
Great run for your money by Mister Marker Robster, stayed on very well.
Bet day 339. 1pt win on each + 1pt E.W. double. Hereford Boy 14.00 & Shaunas Spirit 15.30 Lingfield 6-1 & 5-1 repectively both B365 BOG... write up to follow.....
With you all the way on hereford havent got to shanas race yet.
With the Dean Ivory yard still in scintillating form I’ve decided to play a couple of his inmates with obvious chances, they are Hereford Boy and Shauna’s Spirit, and it wouldn’t surprise if his once raced maiden in the first were to run a big race either. However handicaps are my passion and the previously mentioned two are entitled to be at the fore front of the betting with decent enough form credentials, and both appear to be in rude health at present.
Hereford Boy is again taking on some recent rivals, and although has gone up a couple of lbs for finishing second recently he is weighted to come out on top today. His draw could have been kinder, but being a hold up performer Adam Kirby will be happy taking a pull and try and slot him in early, and hopefully there will be some pace on to help him settle. Looking at his last run I’m convinced the way Kirby rode him he was confident of pulling in Aquilifer, however he misjudged his animals ability by a shd, so with nothing in the race a stand out it could well be a case of better the devil you know than the one you don’t, with 6-1 on offer bigger than I expected.
I’m fairly confident the step up to 10F for Shauna’s Spirit won’t inconvenience, as Lto in an apprentice race at Kempton over8 appeared to still be battling on strongly heading up towards the line, beaten the minimum with 8 lengths to spare to the 3rd. She is able to race of the same mark today, and a similar run to Lto would be good enough to be involved at the business end today. However her string of second’s does temper enthusiasm, 2 of those 2nds she was not beaten very much, and being ultra critical it’s questionable whether she wanted to go past. Again on the form book appears to have an outstanding chance, and although she has not got the profile of a horse ready to dramatically improve, she is only having her 9th lifetime start at 3yrsold(soon to be 4) and at least has the potential to find more improvement than most in today’s line up…. with 5-1 a fair reflection of her chance.
Hereford Boy is again taking on some recent rivals, and although has gone up a couple of lbs for finishing second recently he is weighted to come out on top today. His draw could have been kinder, but being a hold up performer Adam Kirby will be happy taking a pull and try and slot him in early, and hopefully there will be some pace on to help him settle. Looking at his last run I’m convinced the way Kirby rode him he was confident of pulling in Aquilifer, however he misjudged his animals ability by a shd, so with nothing in the race a stand out it could well be a case of better the devil you know than the one you don’t, with 6-1 on offer bigger than I expected.
I’m fairly confident the step up to 10F for Shauna’s Spirit won’t inconvenience, as Lto in an apprentice race at Kempton over8 appeared to still be battling on strongly heading up towards the line, beaten the minimum with 8 lengths to spare to the 3rd. She is able to race of the same mark today, and a similar run to Lto would be good enough to be involved at the business end today. However her string of second’s does temper enthusiasm, 2 of those 2nds she was not beaten very much, and being ultra critical it’s questionable whether she wanted to go past. Again on the form book appears to have an outstanding chance, and although she has not got the profile of a horse ready to dramatically improve, she is only having her 9th lifetime start at 3yrsold(soon to be 4) and at least has the potential to find more improvement than most in today’s line up…. with 5-1 a fair reflection of her chance.
Adam Kirby will be happy taking a pull
thats the bit that worrys me.
Sad game when you have to think like this aint it.
thats the bit that worrys me.
Sad game when you have to think like this aint it.
Result day 338.
Premier Sagas Un Pl -2pt
Skipper's Brigg Pl -1pt
Mister Marker Pl 12-1(25's adv) +10 1/2 pts
Profit / Loss +7 1/2 pts
Total 307 1/2pts
Premier Sagas Un Pl -2pt
Skipper's Brigg Pl -1pt
Mister Marker Pl 12-1(25's adv) +10 1/2 pts
Profit / Loss +7 1/2 pts
Total 307 1/2pts
^^^^^^^ Total 302 1/2 pts 
wishful thinking on my behalf!
wishful thinking on my behalf!
WD Robbo, great to pop in and see you still doing well. Gee Major is an e.w. play for me today 8-1 is too big imho. Best of luck with yours. 
Bet for day 340. 4pts E.W. Takajan 12.00 Southwell 6-1 B365 BOG...write up to follow....
Takajan run’s in tomorrow’s 12.00 at Southwell, and after seeing 9’s & 7’s disappear in a short space of time I was slightly reluctant to get involved this evening, thinking tomorrow might see him slightly bigger with other firms. However I’m of the opinion there may be an absolute down pour of money for this animal, and the 6-1 that is currently on offer with B365 may look a gift horse come post time.
This horse has already done me a favour earlier in the year on this thread when winning over C/D off 65, looking to be supported in the process. His win prior to that was also over C/D in December this time last year off a mark of 61,and tomorrow he will be lining up another 4lb lower than that win. In fact his only other win from 39 lifetime starts was also over Southwell’s 6F, and apart from those win’s has ran some other solid enough races on the surface over the distance and further.
Lto again over Southwell’s 6F give the strongest indication yet he has started to come to hand, and I’m sure went into many a note book(mine certainly). That day ridden by Rachael Kneller was drawn widest of all bar 1 and she simply was in no man’s land for most of the race, running into the straight widest of all , and well and truly out of his ground for most if not all of the contest. Having swung into the straight Takajan still had a good 12-15 lengths to make up on the principles up front, but stayed on very nicely under very much a sympathetic hand ride to be nearest at the finish only to go down a diminishing 5 lengths. Tomorrow this horse has a perfect box to jump from for his style of racing, and seems best in amongst horses just off a decent pace which he’s bound to get with the likes of Suddenly Susan to name but one who will be pressing on up front, and cover should be assured.
Another massive positive to his chance is the riding arrangements, and without sounding harsh the light weight brigade have been dispensed with, and a major heavy weight in Sylvestre De Sousa has been given the nod. The handicapper has also given his blessing to this horse’s quest in relieving him of a further 3lbs, and can take in tomorrows contest off 57, his lowest mark in 12 runs on this surface stretching back 13 or so months, and a full 8lbs lower than his last winning mark. The Mark Brisbourne yard isn’t in the greatest of form, which may have something to do with the calibre of horses he has been going to work with, hopefully this lad can get him back amongst the winner’s, as I’m fairly certain nothing will be staying on better in the closing stages than him.
This horse has already done me a favour earlier in the year on this thread when winning over C/D off 65, looking to be supported in the process. His win prior to that was also over C/D in December this time last year off a mark of 61,and tomorrow he will be lining up another 4lb lower than that win. In fact his only other win from 39 lifetime starts was also over Southwell’s 6F, and apart from those win’s has ran some other solid enough races on the surface over the distance and further.
Lto again over Southwell’s 6F give the strongest indication yet he has started to come to hand, and I’m sure went into many a note book(mine certainly). That day ridden by Rachael Kneller was drawn widest of all bar 1 and she simply was in no man’s land for most of the race, running into the straight widest of all , and well and truly out of his ground for most if not all of the contest. Having swung into the straight Takajan still had a good 12-15 lengths to make up on the principles up front, but stayed on very nicely under very much a sympathetic hand ride to be nearest at the finish only to go down a diminishing 5 lengths. Tomorrow this horse has a perfect box to jump from for his style of racing, and seems best in amongst horses just off a decent pace which he’s bound to get with the likes of Suddenly Susan to name but one who will be pressing on up front, and cover should be assured.
Another massive positive to his chance is the riding arrangements, and without sounding harsh the light weight brigade have been dispensed with, and a major heavy weight in Sylvestre De Sousa has been given the nod. The handicapper has also given his blessing to this horse’s quest in relieving him of a further 3lbs, and can take in tomorrows contest off 57, his lowest mark in 12 runs on this surface stretching back 13 or so months, and a full 8lbs lower than his last winning mark. The Mark Brisbourne yard isn’t in the greatest of form, which may have something to do with the calibre of horses he has been going to work with, hopefully this lad can get him back amongst the winner’s, as I’m fairly certain nothing will be staying on better in the closing stages than him.
Fantastic profit Rob, you are ending the year with a bang.
Very well done
Very well done
A bit of discipline coupled with some skill and race reading goes a long way well done mate long may it continue. 
Result day 339.
Hereford Boy 2nd 8-1 -1pt
Shaunas Spirit Un Pl -1pt
Double lost -2pts
Profit / Loss -4pts
Total 298 1/2 pts
Hereford Boy 2nd 8-1 -1pt
Shaunas Spirit Un Pl -1pt
Double lost -2pts
Profit / Loss -4pts
Total 298 1/2 pts
Dont think Hereford wanted to go past the last horse rob, great call all the same . . . .Takajan been smashed (hope by the right people)
g/l today.
g/l today.
Bit dissapointed with Shauna's tbh PHP, thought she was nailed on for a place... possibly needed ridden with more restraint in the early part of the contest. I'm sure the way Takajan has been smashed up it's connection's cash, everything set for a big run, only danger may turn out to be another note book horse Yours, first time on fibre sand by Piccolo Hmmm.... Takajan my biggest individually staked bet of the year so far if you include the place aspect. GL if your involved
Missed the prices mate so im not going to take 3/1 ish . . . .Really is a strange one this one, going to be a interesting race whatever.
g/l hope it goes your way. . . . got a bit ew on evens stevens at 12s last night wiv laddies
in the 1.00
Shaunas looked all over the winner then nothing strange.
g/l hope it goes your way. . . . got a bit ew on evens stevens at 12s last night wiv laddies
in the 1.00Shaunas looked all over the winner then nothing strange.
Bet day 341. 2pts E.W. Kames Park 14.40 Lingfield 16-1 VCbet BOG...write up to follow...
Tomorrow’s 14.40 where no doubt Kiss A Prince for the inform yard of Dean Ivory, and hat trick seeking Royal Alcor will be popular with plenty, however I've kept a recent close eye on Kames Park and now think he is starting to look not that badly handicapped. I’m also inclined to think the 16-1 on offer with Vc bet seems reasonably generous, and possibly 4-6 points bigger than I would have assumed, and is Imo worth a speculative E.W. poke.
Since winning at Kempton in April he has dropped 5lbs lower than that mark of 68, and faired a lot better than his finishing position Lto would suggest. That day was held up in last place for the majority of the journey, and in truth never got the decent gallop that he need’s to finish his race off. The first 2 home closely tracked a moderate pace, and kicked turning in with very little getting into the race thereafter, but Kames Park did make some eye catching late gains under a hand ride from the top of the straight, suggesting he could be coming back into form after being out in the cold for most of the summer.
In tomorrow’s race there appears to be 5 or 6 that have all sat just off the pace in their respective races lto, and I’m fairly sure with a Mark Johnston runner in the field it will be a strong pace, and hopefully with several others pressuring the lead will assure a decent even gallop throughout. If that is the case Kames Park will have a much better chance of producing a finishing kick in the straight, and the lad on top should have at least a handle on his quirks by now. The yard have recently got a similar type in Daniel Thomas out of the doldrums and into yet another place today at big odds, as well as other’s running well on today’s card, giving some hope that the yard are coming back into reasonable order. With the majority of this horse’s best form over 11-12F on a poly surface he looks set to give his running, and I’d be hopeful rather than confident of a bold show, but it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him win.
Since winning at Kempton in April he has dropped 5lbs lower than that mark of 68, and faired a lot better than his finishing position Lto would suggest. That day was held up in last place for the majority of the journey, and in truth never got the decent gallop that he need’s to finish his race off. The first 2 home closely tracked a moderate pace, and kicked turning in with very little getting into the race thereafter, but Kames Park did make some eye catching late gains under a hand ride from the top of the straight, suggesting he could be coming back into form after being out in the cold for most of the summer.
In tomorrow’s race there appears to be 5 or 6 that have all sat just off the pace in their respective races lto, and I’m fairly sure with a Mark Johnston runner in the field it will be a strong pace, and hopefully with several others pressuring the lead will assure a decent even gallop throughout. If that is the case Kames Park will have a much better chance of producing a finishing kick in the straight, and the lad on top should have at least a handle on his quirks by now. The yard have recently got a similar type in Daniel Thomas out of the doldrums and into yet another place today at big odds, as well as other’s running well on today’s card, giving some hope that the yard are coming back into reasonable order. With the majority of this horse’s best form over 11-12F on a poly surface he looks set to give his running, and I’d be hopeful rather than confident of a bold show, but it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him win.
Extra bet day 341. 1/2pt E.W. Ghostwing 14.10 Lingfield 50-1 Laddys BOG....
Ghostwing run’s in the very competitive 14.10 at Lingfield today, and 50-1 on offer with the magic sign may even still be on the skinny side, however for all this horse has some very big quirks I believe he has got ability, however getting him to show it on demand is the tricky bit.
I did give this lad a favourable mention on this thread in May, and having watched him in a few races since then (all over today’s trip),he's finished 2ndlast recently over C/D and stone dead last his previous other 2 contests, and I’m beginning to question my sanity about getting involved today. He has however plummeted to his lowest ever mark, even so it’s still easy to have reservations about parting with any cash on this beast, even the recent change of surroundings hasn’t gotten him to fire.
His last run was his first on a poly surface since finishing last at Kempton to Macs Power off a mark of 92 last September, and since then has done very little if nothing to suggest any of that old ability is in existence. He does however have a habit (when he feel’s like it) of putting in a very good run when you least expect it, I’m pinning my hopes on today’s that day.
He would definitely have needed his run Lto, taking the field as far as the furlong pole before folding very tamely, with his jockey quickly accepting he had no more to offer, whether he simply doesn't stay, was extremely tired or just not putting it in is anyone's guess. James Evans has only had him for one run, and although he won’t have that many to go to war with on the A.W. over the winter at least he’s in among the winner’s and places in the jump’s sphere, advertising the yards wellbeing. Ghostwing is now a few pounds better off with a couple he re- apposes today, I think the weight is the biggest issue here, but finding the key to getting him sweet, and 50-1 worth a very small interest to find out if they have.
Ghostwing run’s in the very competitive 14.10 at Lingfield today, and 50-1 on offer with the magic sign may even still be on the skinny side, however for all this horse has some very big quirks I believe he has got ability, however getting him to show it on demand is the tricky bit.
I did give this lad a favourable mention on this thread in May, and having watched him in a few races since then (all over today’s trip),he's finished 2ndlast recently over C/D and stone dead last his previous other 2 contests, and I’m beginning to question my sanity about getting involved today. He has however plummeted to his lowest ever mark, even so it’s still easy to have reservations about parting with any cash on this beast, even the recent change of surroundings hasn’t gotten him to fire.
His last run was his first on a poly surface since finishing last at Kempton to Macs Power off a mark of 92 last September, and since then has done very little if nothing to suggest any of that old ability is in existence. He does however have a habit (when he feel’s like it) of putting in a very good run when you least expect it, I’m pinning my hopes on today’s that day.
He would definitely have needed his run Lto, taking the field as far as the furlong pole before folding very tamely, with his jockey quickly accepting he had no more to offer, whether he simply doesn't stay, was extremely tired or just not putting it in is anyone's guess. James Evans has only had him for one run, and although he won’t have that many to go to war with on the A.W. over the winter at least he’s in among the winner’s and places in the jump’s sphere, advertising the yards wellbeing. Ghostwing is now a few pounds better off with a couple he re- apposes today, I think the weight is the biggest issue here, but finding the key to getting him sweet, and 50-1 worth a very small interest to find out if they have.
Result day 340.
Takajan Un Pl -8pts
Profit / Loss -8pts
Total 290 1/2 pts
penultimate line on above write up should read, weight is "not" the biggest issue
Takajan Un Pl -8pts
Profit / Loss -8pts
Total 290 1/2 pts
penultimate line on above write up should read, weight is "not" the biggest issue
Bet for day 342.... 2pt win Taajub 18.30 Kempton B365 17-2 BOG….
Today I have concentrated on this evening’s card at Kempton, and in particular the 18.30, where I think Taajub is a very interesting runner coming back to 6F.
This horse as a juvenile contested some very nice sales and group races over 5-7F, hitting the cross bar on a good few occasions peaking at a rating of 108. However he did not progress as previous connection’s had expected, having missed the summer of 2010 I’m presuming with injury he came back later in the year looking a shadow of the horse the previous season. He made this year’s seasonal bow back in May in a tricky little conditions event over Ascot’s 5, where the handicapper had him rated at 100, and ran as well as could be expected against a reasonable standard of 5F horses. However he continued to regress and his mark tumbled as a result and was sold, Peter Crate being the benefactor of that sale.
Peter Crate now also trains him and started him off over a well contetsed class2 mile for his British A.W. bow, and after being steadied at the start crept into the race travelling kindly running into the home turn, only to find nothing in the straight. Lto over 7F at Kempton again was ridden patiently, and did not settle very well for his jockey, and still having plenty to do turning in made eye catching late gains under a far from vigorous ride, with the race starting to work out nicely. The man on board today, as well as his previous 3 is Seb Sanders, and I’m assuming will at least have a handle on this horse’s ability by now, and hopefully the best way to ride him.
Having now been given further respite from the assessor, as well as being kept in the same class 4 over a sprint trip he has found his way onto my radar, and looks of serious interest in a fairly winnable race. There has been a little cash around for this horse last night, but I’m still fairly keen to be involved at around 8’s with a BOG firm, and I would not be that surprised if the racing tactics changed dropping in trip from an excellent draw in stall 1.
Today I have concentrated on this evening’s card at Kempton, and in particular the 18.30, where I think Taajub is a very interesting runner coming back to 6F.
This horse as a juvenile contested some very nice sales and group races over 5-7F, hitting the cross bar on a good few occasions peaking at a rating of 108. However he did not progress as previous connection’s had expected, having missed the summer of 2010 I’m presuming with injury he came back later in the year looking a shadow of the horse the previous season. He made this year’s seasonal bow back in May in a tricky little conditions event over Ascot’s 5, where the handicapper had him rated at 100, and ran as well as could be expected against a reasonable standard of 5F horses. However he continued to regress and his mark tumbled as a result and was sold, Peter Crate being the benefactor of that sale.
Peter Crate now also trains him and started him off over a well contetsed class2 mile for his British A.W. bow, and after being steadied at the start crept into the race travelling kindly running into the home turn, only to find nothing in the straight. Lto over 7F at Kempton again was ridden patiently, and did not settle very well for his jockey, and still having plenty to do turning in made eye catching late gains under a far from vigorous ride, with the race starting to work out nicely. The man on board today, as well as his previous 3 is Seb Sanders, and I’m assuming will at least have a handle on this horse’s ability by now, and hopefully the best way to ride him.
Having now been given further respite from the assessor, as well as being kept in the same class 4 over a sprint trip he has found his way onto my radar, and looks of serious interest in a fairly winnable race. There has been a little cash around for this horse last night, but I’m still fairly keen to be involved at around 8’s with a BOG firm, and I would not be that surprised if the racing tactics changed dropping in trip from an excellent draw in stall 1.
Final bet 341. 5pts win Carrickmines 14.20 Taunton...2-1 B365/PP BOG...write up to follow...
My 1st maximum bet of the year is entrusted to Carrickmines, and is a very worthy candidate considering he is due a really big hike in the handicap(hurdles mark), and Imo 2-1 on offer is outstanding value considering the opposition.
Having watched the re-run of his last race on several occasions I’m convinced had he not over jumped 2 out he would have readily accounted for the very well handicapped Water Garden, and arguably may have done so with a good few pounds to spare. This horse ended up at the end of last season reaching a mark of 128 over fences, and did compete on that mark in class 1 and listed / graded staying chases. He is now being able to contest a very moderate class 4 hurdle off a 2stone lower mark, and as already alluded to may have won readily off that same mark Lto bar that fall.
He also seems to run well at this time of year, having won and placed in December 2009 he was running a massive race still tanking along in a decent staying contest last December before coming to grief, with any serious question still to be asked. Although he appears adaptable as far as ground goes, today’s described going is Imo not far short of his ultimate, and will appreciate the extra yardage as well. There’s an old saying it racing, “the bigger the field, the bigger the certainty”, and should Carrickmines have an error / trouble free round he’s as near my idea of a certainty as I’ve seen all season with Richard Johnson booked.
Having watched the re-run of his last race on several occasions I’m convinced had he not over jumped 2 out he would have readily accounted for the very well handicapped Water Garden, and arguably may have done so with a good few pounds to spare. This horse ended up at the end of last season reaching a mark of 128 over fences, and did compete on that mark in class 1 and listed / graded staying chases. He is now being able to contest a very moderate class 4 hurdle off a 2stone lower mark, and as already alluded to may have won readily off that same mark Lto bar that fall.
He also seems to run well at this time of year, having won and placed in December 2009 he was running a massive race still tanking along in a decent staying contest last December before coming to grief, with any serious question still to be asked. Although he appears adaptable as far as ground goes, today’s described going is Imo not far short of his ultimate, and will appreciate the extra yardage as well. There’s an old saying it racing, “the bigger the field, the bigger the certainty”, and should Carrickmines have an error / trouble free round he’s as near my idea of a certainty as I’ve seen all season with Richard Johnson booked.
Result day 341. ^^^^ above bet day342.
Kames Park Un Pl -4pts
Ghostwing Un Pl -1pt
Profit / Loss -5pts
Total 285 1/2pts
Kames Park Un Pl -4pts
Ghostwing Un Pl -1pt
Profit / Loss -5pts
Total 285 1/2pts
Mixed fortunes today Rob
Confidence in the miner for you
Got some back after last time when i thought it was its day
Troubled running on the other maybe
300 beckons
Confidence in the miner for you
Got some back after last time when i thought it was its day
Troubled running on the other maybe
300 beckons
Well done on your Max Rob, work gets in the way of my betting during the week.
Should be the other way around
Should be the other way around
Result day 342.
Taajub Un Pl -2pts
Carrickmines Won 6-4 (2's adv -R4) +9pts
Profit / Loss +7pts
Total 292 1/2pts
Did dip my toe over the 300pts barrier a few or so day's ago madhatter's(+200 profit) but some of my bigger bet's have let me down recently, but still giving it ago. PS quite right about the run of Taajub, a clearer passage would have made a big difference.
Taajub Un Pl -2pts
Carrickmines Won 6-4 (2's adv -R4) +9pts
Profit / Loss +7pts
Total 292 1/2pts
Did dip my toe over the 300pts barrier a few or so day's ago madhatter's(+200 profit) but some of my bigger bet's have let me down recently, but still giving it ago. PS quite right about the run of Taajub, a clearer passage would have made a big difference.
Bet for day 344. 1pt E.W. Roberto Goldback 14.30 Cheltenham 25-1 generally...BOG. write up to follow.....
Tomorrow’s feature race at Cheltenham the grade 3 Gold Cup, looks as you would expect another well contested chase on a Saturday, and not that easy to eliminate many horses chances. For that reason I feel it’s probably best to go with a one at a bit of a price, and at 25-1 Roberto Goldback may prove to be nice E.W. value in a very competative affair.
His only other previous visit to Cheltenham would hardly fill you with any confidence, and allthough that race was the class & grade 1 Ryanair this year, he simply did not jump well enough, and ploughed through a couple on another day would have flawed him. That’s the negative out the way and now the positives, the one thing he does do is run well in December, form figures read 1-5-3-F-1-3 and Imo most of his best form has come November through January for majority of his career. Another thing that should be certain is his ability to stay Cheltenhams 21F, and seems adaptable as far as ground goes. In fact he was very unlucky arguably not to win the ****ss Gold Cup on his last run of the season at Punchestown, which was over 25F on decent ground. Admittedly that day there was a few who underperformed, but none the less it was a grade 1 event off level weights.
He has also changed stables since then, and made his debut early Noveber in a listed event at Thurles for Dessie Hughes, and ran a very respectable come back, with he two in front of him that day no slouches either. He has been given plenty of time to get over that race and although he can run well fresh does generally come on for a run. Dessie Hughes’s strike rate at Cheltenham does not exactley leap off the page, but has at least acrewed almost £450K in win and place prize money form only 4 win’s and 6 places form his 48 runners over the years, and is still showing £8.50 profit to £1 level stakes to boot.
My personal feeling that running off his current mark of 156 in a handicap albeit a grade 3 is as easy assignment as he has been asked for a couple of year, and should give his backers a good spin for their cash if his jumping holds out, with the yard looking very much like they're coming into form.
His only other previous visit to Cheltenham would hardly fill you with any confidence, and allthough that race was the class & grade 1 Ryanair this year, he simply did not jump well enough, and ploughed through a couple on another day would have flawed him. That’s the negative out the way and now the positives, the one thing he does do is run well in December, form figures read 1-5-3-F-1-3 and Imo most of his best form has come November through January for majority of his career. Another thing that should be certain is his ability to stay Cheltenhams 21F, and seems adaptable as far as ground goes. In fact he was very unlucky arguably not to win the ****ss Gold Cup on his last run of the season at Punchestown, which was over 25F on decent ground. Admittedly that day there was a few who underperformed, but none the less it was a grade 1 event off level weights.
He has also changed stables since then, and made his debut early Noveber in a listed event at Thurles for Dessie Hughes, and ran a very respectable come back, with he two in front of him that day no slouches either. He has been given plenty of time to get over that race and although he can run well fresh does generally come on for a run. Dessie Hughes’s strike rate at Cheltenham does not exactley leap off the page, but has at least acrewed almost £450K in win and place prize money form only 4 win’s and 6 places form his 48 runners over the years, and is still showing £8.50 profit to £1 level stakes to boot.
My personal feeling that running off his current mark of 156 in a handicap albeit a grade 3 is as easy assignment as he has been asked for a couple of year, and should give his backers a good spin for their cash if his jumping holds out, with the yard looking very much like they're coming into form.
Final bets day 344 1pt E.W. Dave’s Dream 13.20 Cheltenham 8-1 generally BOG + 1pt E.W. Calgary Bay 15.40 Doncaster 7-1 generally BOG.... + 1/2 pt E.W. treble with Roberto Goldback at 25-1 generally BOG....
The other 2 I like for today were both in action in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, they are Nicky Henderson’s Dave’s Dream and Hen Knights Calgary Bay, and it’s a case of one going up and one going down trip wise.
I will start with Calgary Bay who’s preferred engagement at Doncaster does look a lot less demanding than the Cheltenham Cup race he was also in at the 48hr dec stage. This horse has kept very good company during his hurdling and jumping campaign’s thus far, and has by far the best credentials class wise to give him an excellent shout. His last race as all ready stated was in the Paddy Power, and looked in desperate need of it, none the less ran a credible 8th after racing up with the pace for most of the contest.
He has also shown his liking for Doncaster in December, and after running well in a novice event in 2008, he won the renewal of this race in 2009 off a 3lb lower mark, in fact he does seem to run well in December with form figures of 1-2-1-4. He should have come on plenty for his seasonal bow, and with under foot conditions looking preferable he could be primed to take a hand.
Now onto Dave’s Dream, who I did tip up for his seasonal bow in the Paddy Power, and for a short time in that race I genuinely thought he was going to do it.
That day under Barry Geraghty was still travelling and jumping well before they turned in around 3F out, before being well and truly found out stamina wise. His good showing to that point did coincide with his ability to run well fresh, and has had a nice break to get over those excretions. Today he has much more in his favour than he had on debut, the good ground which he appears to love, the distance that look’s his optimum and the added bonus of having a very able 5lb claimer up, as well as his tongue tied for the first time. The small negative however is the riding arrangement, but top jockey’s don’t always get it right and to me at the weight both Henderson runner’s have Imo as good a chance as each other. But at about double the price of his stable companion Dave’s Dream will do for me at 8-1.
The other 2 I like for today were both in action in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, they are Nicky Henderson’s Dave’s Dream and Hen Knights Calgary Bay, and it’s a case of one going up and one going down trip wise.
I will start with Calgary Bay who’s preferred engagement at Doncaster does look a lot less demanding than the Cheltenham Cup race he was also in at the 48hr dec stage. This horse has kept very good company during his hurdling and jumping campaign’s thus far, and has by far the best credentials class wise to give him an excellent shout. His last race as all ready stated was in the Paddy Power, and looked in desperate need of it, none the less ran a credible 8th after racing up with the pace for most of the contest.
He has also shown his liking for Doncaster in December, and after running well in a novice event in 2008, he won the renewal of this race in 2009 off a 3lb lower mark, in fact he does seem to run well in December with form figures of 1-2-1-4. He should have come on plenty for his seasonal bow, and with under foot conditions looking preferable he could be primed to take a hand.
Now onto Dave’s Dream, who I did tip up for his seasonal bow in the Paddy Power, and for a short time in that race I genuinely thought he was going to do it.
That day under Barry Geraghty was still travelling and jumping well before they turned in around 3F out, before being well and truly found out stamina wise. His good showing to that point did coincide with his ability to run well fresh, and has had a nice break to get over those excretions. Today he has much more in his favour than he had on debut, the good ground which he appears to love, the distance that look’s his optimum and the added bonus of having a very able 5lb claimer up, as well as his tongue tied for the first time. The small negative however is the riding arrangement, but top jockey’s don’t always get it right and to me at the weight both Henderson runner’s have Imo as good a chance as each other. But at about double the price of his stable companion Dave’s Dream will do for me at 8-1.
Bet day 345 2pts E.W Ace Master 12-1 generally 1pt E.W Takajan 14-1 generally both BOG…..
Southwell’s finale and a very tricky getting out stakes, I myself am prepared to get out on the Roy Bowring trained Ace Master, but I’m having a very small saver on Takajan who never give his running on Tuesday, and could typically bounce back if in the mood.
I will start with Ace Master who does appear to be one of many in the race that appreciates Southwell’s fibre sand, and although he has not won over 6F he has at least been quick enough to win over 5, and has shown resolution to win over 7 on course. In fact his over all form at this track is all his best by far. He has now slipped 1lb lower than his last winning mark, which was over the previously mentioned 5F back in March, and could well have been campaigned thus far with a gamble in mind….perhaps?.
He was then given the summer off, whether this was forced by injury or by design I’m not entirely sure, but either way both his recent starts in this A.W. campaign have certainly not been without promise. He made his come back in November over Wolverhampton’s 7, and after fluffing the start slightly ran a very pleasing race behind Silver Wind, after sitting at the rear of the field made headway before match fitness gave way, and not knocked about inside the 2 pole when placing was not an option. His latest start was also very eye catching over a distance that would have certainly taxed his stamina, and Imo ran a very nice race considering that fact. That day he was always up in the van always travelling nicely, and did turn into the straight 3rd horse, however his stamina did flounder, and at least the pair that fought out the finish that day upheld the form Nto.
Those 2 contests will have firmed him up no end, and now returns to a surface that could eek out even further improvement, for this still relatively young horse. From his debut appearance he meet’s likely favourite Michael’s Nook on 6lbs better term’s(considering claimer then), and with fitness now assured on his preferred surface I can’t see why Michaels Nook is that far in front of him in the betting???. Maybe it’s the wide draw Ace Master has been allocated, but I’m not really that concerned, as long as the pace is generous he should give a bold show, possibly getting into the contest late on (hopefully not to late).
A small saver on Takajan, who is still Imo relatively well handicapped. He also has a habit of displacing a bad run with a good one, as showing last November when being beaten 21 lengths over Southwells 7, then 5 days later beaten a nose over 6. It will be very interesting to see which Takajan comes racing today on his recovery mission, but he makes plenty of E.W. appeal at his price in a wide open affair with the 7lb claimer back on.
Southwell’s finale and a very tricky getting out stakes, I myself am prepared to get out on the Roy Bowring trained Ace Master, but I’m having a very small saver on Takajan who never give his running on Tuesday, and could typically bounce back if in the mood.
I will start with Ace Master who does appear to be one of many in the race that appreciates Southwell’s fibre sand, and although he has not won over 6F he has at least been quick enough to win over 5, and has shown resolution to win over 7 on course. In fact his over all form at this track is all his best by far. He has now slipped 1lb lower than his last winning mark, which was over the previously mentioned 5F back in March, and could well have been campaigned thus far with a gamble in mind….perhaps?.
He was then given the summer off, whether this was forced by injury or by design I’m not entirely sure, but either way both his recent starts in this A.W. campaign have certainly not been without promise. He made his come back in November over Wolverhampton’s 7, and after fluffing the start slightly ran a very pleasing race behind Silver Wind, after sitting at the rear of the field made headway before match fitness gave way, and not knocked about inside the 2 pole when placing was not an option. His latest start was also very eye catching over a distance that would have certainly taxed his stamina, and Imo ran a very nice race considering that fact. That day he was always up in the van always travelling nicely, and did turn into the straight 3rd horse, however his stamina did flounder, and at least the pair that fought out the finish that day upheld the form Nto.
Those 2 contests will have firmed him up no end, and now returns to a surface that could eek out even further improvement, for this still relatively young horse. From his debut appearance he meet’s likely favourite Michael’s Nook on 6lbs better term’s(considering claimer then), and with fitness now assured on his preferred surface I can’t see why Michaels Nook is that far in front of him in the betting???. Maybe it’s the wide draw Ace Master has been allocated, but I’m not really that concerned, as long as the pace is generous he should give a bold show, possibly getting into the contest late on (hopefully not to late).
A small saver on Takajan, who is still Imo relatively well handicapped. He also has a habit of displacing a bad run with a good one, as showing last November when being beaten 21 lengths over Southwells 7, then 5 days later beaten a nose over 6. It will be very interesting to see which Takajan comes racing today on his recovery mission, but he makes plenty of E.W. appeal at his price in a wide open affair with the 7lb claimer back on.
Result day 344.
Roberto Goldback Un Pl -2pts
Dave's Dream Fell -2pts
Calgary Bay N/R Donny -0pts
Treble Lost -1pt
Profit / Loss - 5pts
Total 187 1/2pts
Roberto Goldback Un Pl -2pts
Dave's Dream Fell -2pts
Calgary Bay N/R Donny -0pts
Treble Lost -1pt
Profit / Loss - 5pts
Total 187 1/2pts
Bet for day 346. 3pts win Yungaburra 15.45 Wolverhampmton 15-2 Whill BOG...write up to follow...
To me anything over 6-1 is a more than fair price for this horse, and I’d be amazed if he were allowed to get any bigger than the 15-2 currently available with Whill’s, even so he was allowed to drift like the proverbial barge Lto and still ran a gallant race.
This horse is in fine fettle at present, and his last couple of appearances at Wolverhampton have been very good, winning before finishing runner up to the bang in form Perlachy. In fact this horse maybe still relatively well handicapped after having plenty uninspiring run’s on turf, as well as running beyond his optimum distance on poly track. This horse appears to be different gravy over Wolverhampton’s 5F and from 13 C/D appearances has won 6 and placed on 3 occasions, and all bar his most recent win have been above tomorrow’s mark of 59.
His draw is not that important regard’s his racing style, but one thing he does rely on is a break neck gallop to finish his race off well, and I don’t think they will be messing around with Grand Stitch in the race who does like to jump and run. I also like the booking of Franny Norton whom from 2 starts over C/D has ridden him to a win & most recently 2nd. With his mark dropping via a combination of running over the wrong trip and his poor turf run’s I cant help feeling he has at least another win in him before it start’s getting hard again, and his stable must be sick of hitting the crossbar recently and surely deserve a bit of luck.
This horse is in fine fettle at present, and his last couple of appearances at Wolverhampton have been very good, winning before finishing runner up to the bang in form Perlachy. In fact this horse maybe still relatively well handicapped after having plenty uninspiring run’s on turf, as well as running beyond his optimum distance on poly track. This horse appears to be different gravy over Wolverhampton’s 5F and from 13 C/D appearances has won 6 and placed on 3 occasions, and all bar his most recent win have been above tomorrow’s mark of 59.
His draw is not that important regard’s his racing style, but one thing he does rely on is a break neck gallop to finish his race off well, and I don’t think they will be messing around with Grand Stitch in the race who does like to jump and run. I also like the booking of Franny Norton whom from 2 starts over C/D has ridden him to a win & most recently 2nd. With his mark dropping via a combination of running over the wrong trip and his poor turf run’s I cant help feeling he has at least another win in him before it start’s getting hard again, and his stable must be sick of hitting the crossbar recently and surely deserve a bit of luck.
therobster27
Date Joined: 14 Apr 06 Add contact | Send message
When: 11 Dec 11 10:00 Joined: Date Joined: 14 Apr 06 | Topic/replies: 1,867 | Blogger: therobster27's blog
Result day 344.
Roberto Goldback Un Pl -2pts
Dave's Dream Fell -2pts
Calgary Bay N/R Donny -0pts
Treble Lost -1pt
Profit / Loss - 5pts
Total 187 1/2pts????????????????
therobster27 Please stop robbing yourself
Well done, good luck, keep it going
Date Joined: 14 Apr 06 Add contact | Send message
When: 11 Dec 11 10:00 Joined: Date Joined: 14 Apr 06 | Topic/replies: 1,867 | Blogger: therobster27's blog
Result day 344.
Roberto Goldback Un Pl -2pts
Dave's Dream Fell -2pts
Calgary Bay N/R Donny -0pts
Treble Lost -1pt
Profit / Loss - 5pts
Total 187 1/2pts????????????????
therobster27 Please stop robbing yourself
Well done, good luck, keep it going
Did notice my error ha ha, will rectify it tomorrow.
Fantastic post rob and well done this year will you be doing a 2012 edition???
I don't see why not MrAdhoc. I'm sure some folk out there clock in for a read, and regardless whether they back them or not, it's at least some food for thought for fellow punters.
Result day 345.
Ace Master Un Pl -4pts
Takajan Un Pl -2pt
Profit / Loss -6pts
Total 281 1/2pts
Ace Master Un Pl -4pts
Takajan Un Pl -2pt
Profit / Loss -6pts
Total 281 1/2pts
Result day 346.
Yungaburra Un Pl -3pts
Profit / Loss -3pts
Total 178 1/2 pts
Yungaburra Un Pl -3pts
Profit / Loss -3pts
Total 178 1/2 pts
Bet for day 348. 4pts win Slatey Hen 14.40 Lingfield 3-1 B365 BOG write up to follow....
Tomorrow’s 14.40 and in term’s of a handicap is no great shakes, but was forced to have a look in as the last time Slatey Hen ran she did enter my note book for a precautionary look at her next engagement. And having personally concluded the 3-1 on offer is a big price all things considered, I have backed her accordingly.
As stated this filly went into my book as an eye catcher Lto when contesting Kempton’s 6F. That day although she jumped out smartly from her very good draw was caught slightly on heels, and before you could blink the young lad on board found himself plumb last, and was still filling that position just before they started to turn in. However every credit must be given to Robert Spencer for not pressing the panic button, and did the sensible thing by creeping this filly around the inside and at the cut away asked her to quicken, and it looked for all the world he had rode a perfect race, but once at the front he lacked the strength to encourage her to stay there, and was overhauled very late on by the well backed jolly as well as the morning gamble.
Tomorrow again she has a very decent stall to jump from, and in Martin Harley has a pilot that is riding with supreme confidence, and rightly so as regards the strides he has made in his career during the summer. That 3rd Lto was off the back of a break, and had a similar build up to winning her seller over C/D in December 2009, and last December ran into some form before winning Nto in January. Those 2 wins were when she was a mid 60 horse and tomorrow is contesting the race of a mark of just 50. With all of her best form on a poly surface over 6F, and looking like she’s coming to hand, tomorrow she look’s primed to give her running, even more so with the likely favourite having an absence to overcome(usually needs a run),as well as a career best needed to trouble Slatey Hen.
As stated this filly went into my book as an eye catcher Lto when contesting Kempton’s 6F. That day although she jumped out smartly from her very good draw was caught slightly on heels, and before you could blink the young lad on board found himself plumb last, and was still filling that position just before they started to turn in. However every credit must be given to Robert Spencer for not pressing the panic button, and did the sensible thing by creeping this filly around the inside and at the cut away asked her to quicken, and it looked for all the world he had rode a perfect race, but once at the front he lacked the strength to encourage her to stay there, and was overhauled very late on by the well backed jolly as well as the morning gamble.
Tomorrow again she has a very decent stall to jump from, and in Martin Harley has a pilot that is riding with supreme confidence, and rightly so as regards the strides he has made in his career during the summer. That 3rd Lto was off the back of a break, and had a similar build up to winning her seller over C/D in December 2009, and last December ran into some form before winning Nto in January. Those 2 wins were when she was a mid 60 horse and tomorrow is contesting the race of a mark of just 50. With all of her best form on a poly surface over 6F, and looking like she’s coming to hand, tomorrow she look’s primed to give her running, even more so with the likely favourite having an absence to overcome(usually needs a run),as well as a career best needed to trouble Slatey Hen.
Bet for day 353. 2pt E.W. Knowe Head 17.20 Wolverhampton 15-2 Vc bet BOG.. write up to follow....
Tomorrow’s finale at Wolverhampton look’s as competitive a race as the meeting has to offer, however I do believe Know Head may still be improving, and should be in the thick of thing’s at the business end tomorrow.
Having put Archie Rice up when running 4th recently I was a little gutted to see him winning Nto over Wolverhampton’s 9F, he did show that day that he was on an attractive mark, and maybe was slightly lucky to have won by the distance he did. That day Know Head travelled supremely well just off a reasonable gallop, and in truth was out ridden by Archie Rice’s jockey. On the approach to the home turn Archie Rice was set alight and had first run on Know Head who was in behind a couple which checked his run, but did manage to reduce the deficit when the line came up to only a length. Archie Rice has franked that form admirably in the interim by slaughtering Opus Maximus who is in the form of his life.
Tomorrow sees this horse again over a C/D he looks very much at home over, with form figures of 4-1-3-2 and has never been beaten more than 1 ½ lengths in those contest’s. The James Unett yard is in relatively good order, and the small amount of A.W. horses he has are running with plenty of credit. With the majority of this field looking much more at home over shorter, and with plenty of prominent racing types in the line up to ensure a decent pace Know Head may just have too much staying power for them. The first time cheek pieces will also help him concentrate on the job in hand, and may just tease out further improvement, on what already may be a winnable mark over this trip.
Having put Archie Rice up when running 4th recently I was a little gutted to see him winning Nto over Wolverhampton’s 9F, he did show that day that he was on an attractive mark, and maybe was slightly lucky to have won by the distance he did. That day Know Head travelled supremely well just off a reasonable gallop, and in truth was out ridden by Archie Rice’s jockey. On the approach to the home turn Archie Rice was set alight and had first run on Know Head who was in behind a couple which checked his run, but did manage to reduce the deficit when the line came up to only a length. Archie Rice has franked that form admirably in the interim by slaughtering Opus Maximus who is in the form of his life.
Tomorrow sees this horse again over a C/D he looks very much at home over, with form figures of 4-1-3-2 and has never been beaten more than 1 ½ lengths in those contest’s. The James Unett yard is in relatively good order, and the small amount of A.W. horses he has are running with plenty of credit. With the majority of this field looking much more at home over shorter, and with plenty of prominent racing types in the line up to ensure a decent pace Know Head may just have too much staying power for them. The first time cheek pieces will also help him concentrate on the job in hand, and may just tease out further improvement, on what already may be a winnable mark over this trip.
Result day 348.
Slatey Hen Un Pl -4pts
Profit / Loss -4pts
Total 274 1/2 pts
Slatey Hen Un Pl -4pts
Profit / Loss -4pts
Total 274 1/2 pts
Bet for day 354. 2pts E.W. Rylee Mooch 15.45 Kempton 20-1 Boyles BOG...write up to follow....
Interesting shout. He is an own brother to Nickel silver who has won 5 times on Polytrack including over Kempton's 5f.
Kempton’s 15.45 sees a few C/D specialists trying to bounce back from poor run’s elsewhere, and also a few that have been in reasonable heart, as well as on the go along time. The one that has caught my eye is the Richard Guest trained Rylee Mooch, and I think at 20-1 could just about be the value in this heat.
We all know with sprinters particularly at the lower level, that if this race were to be run 10 times at the same weight’s there may well be 10 different winners. As well as seeing thing in the form book you have to also try and look at the way horses are campaigned, and unless you are privileged enough you’re also trying to second guess wellbeing. Having cast my eye over the runner’s and riders of this race I just can’t help feeling that Rylee Mooch is ready to improve, and in doing so will have a massive say in tomorrows race.
His first 2 run’s in September is solid decent form for those types of contests, and although he had no chance with the far side at Ayr, he did win the race on the stand side from the front in very resolute fashion. The problem however, and it is a massive problem as far as sprinting goes, is during his last 2 contest’s he has reared badly leaving the stall’s, and his winning chance was basically over before they’d went a horse length in both contests. He did have a nice break from the end of the flat season before taking in his Southwell engagement Lto, and may well have needed that run.
His preparation going into his winter campaign is fairly similar to his previous one, having been given a break last year, after blowing the cobwebs of at Southwell in December was entered into a contest at Kempton, and did run very well in defeat considering it was over 6F (lead passing the furlong pole and beaten by a blot on the handicap). In fact this horse has ran credible on all occasion’s he has tackled an artificial surface, form read’s 2-7-2-2-4-1-2-2-5, and from his 3 attempts going right has won at Carlisle and been runner up twice at Kempton.
Ray Guest has kept the faith with Charles Eddery, whom did manage to get a win out of Kames Park recently, and his claim will play a big part in this horses chances tomorrow. Ray Guest is a little in and out form wise, however there is no doubt he has consistently had winner’s at Kempton over the last year or so with a 16%+ win strike rate with plenty of others filling the frame(23%), leaving him well in front for £1level stakes at +£28, with this horse possessing enough early toe to stalk Bert Oliver around Chester, I’m certain if he breaks on term’s he will them all work from his plumb draw.
We all know with sprinters particularly at the lower level, that if this race were to be run 10 times at the same weight’s there may well be 10 different winners. As well as seeing thing in the form book you have to also try and look at the way horses are campaigned, and unless you are privileged enough you’re also trying to second guess wellbeing. Having cast my eye over the runner’s and riders of this race I just can’t help feeling that Rylee Mooch is ready to improve, and in doing so will have a massive say in tomorrows race.
His first 2 run’s in September is solid decent form for those types of contests, and although he had no chance with the far side at Ayr, he did win the race on the stand side from the front in very resolute fashion. The problem however, and it is a massive problem as far as sprinting goes, is during his last 2 contest’s he has reared badly leaving the stall’s, and his winning chance was basically over before they’d went a horse length in both contests. He did have a nice break from the end of the flat season before taking in his Southwell engagement Lto, and may well have needed that run.
His preparation going into his winter campaign is fairly similar to his previous one, having been given a break last year, after blowing the cobwebs of at Southwell in December was entered into a contest at Kempton, and did run very well in defeat considering it was over 6F (lead passing the furlong pole and beaten by a blot on the handicap). In fact this horse has ran credible on all occasion’s he has tackled an artificial surface, form read’s 2-7-2-2-4-1-2-2-5, and from his 3 attempts going right has won at Carlisle and been runner up twice at Kempton.
Ray Guest has kept the faith with Charles Eddery, whom did manage to get a win out of Kames Park recently, and his claim will play a big part in this horses chances tomorrow. Ray Guest is a little in and out form wise, however there is no doubt he has consistently had winner’s at Kempton over the last year or so with a 16%+ win strike rate with plenty of others filling the frame(23%), leaving him well in front for £1level stakes at +£28, with this horse possessing enough early toe to stalk Bert Oliver around Chester, I’m certain if he breaks on term’s he will them all work from his plumb draw.
Did not realise that Leo B, interesting all the same.
Result day 353
Knowe Head Pl 4-1(15-2adv) + 3/4pts
Profit / Loss + 3/4pts
Total 275 1/4pts
Knowe Head Pl 4-1(15-2adv) + 3/4pts
Profit / Loss + 3/4pts
Total 275 1/4pts
Bet for day 355. 2pts E.W. Chilli Green 18.15 Kempton 8-1 generally BOG....
Tomorrow’s 18.15 at Kempton, and it look’s like the supporters of Reachforthebucks have thrown their hat’s in the ring early, and have helped force this vastly improved gelding into around 7-2 jolly from about 7’s. Having casually gone through the race and watched his performance Lto I was almost tempted to get involved myself, however I think there could be much better value in backing Chilli Green who is trading freely at over double his price.
There are plenty of horses bringing decent form lines into the contest, with the likes of Tarooq, Lockandtanks and Simayil all looking to have very solid claims on their respective recent outings. However I believe these will be playing a minor roll in proceeding’s, and would suggest the one that could be primed to give Reachforthebucks most to do is John Akehurst’s filly. She had her pipe opener for this winter campaign over Lingfield’s 7F off the back of a 134 day break a fortnight ago, and all things considered that was a very impressive comeback. That day she tracked the pace set by Amitola and always travelled kindly for the majority of the journey, and gave generously for pressure when her race fitness gave way, giving me the impression 8F could see even more improvement. The form to that race is very solid, with the first 2 home looking to have both improved markedly from there previous good runs, which the clock would also corroborate, and both would have had a distinct fitness edge on the filly. In theory on a line through the much improved winner of that race Numeral, in my book she look’s to just about have the beating of Reachforthebucks at tomorrow’s weights.
I’m sure tomorrow Chilli Green will have come on a bundle for her outing, and look’s fairly at home around Kempton’s poly surface, especially at this time of year. John Akehurst yard haven’t had many runners of late but at least has had a win and a place form his last 4, and Dane O’Neill has been in half decent form as well. Tomorrow she has a very handy pitch to jump from, and the faster they go the better it should suit her, and being prominent could well be the place to be in tomorrow's contest.
Tomorrow’s 18.15 at Kempton, and it look’s like the supporters of Reachforthebucks have thrown their hat’s in the ring early, and have helped force this vastly improved gelding into around 7-2 jolly from about 7’s. Having casually gone through the race and watched his performance Lto I was almost tempted to get involved myself, however I think there could be much better value in backing Chilli Green who is trading freely at over double his price.
There are plenty of horses bringing decent form lines into the contest, with the likes of Tarooq, Lockandtanks and Simayil all looking to have very solid claims on their respective recent outings. However I believe these will be playing a minor roll in proceeding’s, and would suggest the one that could be primed to give Reachforthebucks most to do is John Akehurst’s filly. She had her pipe opener for this winter campaign over Lingfield’s 7F off the back of a 134 day break a fortnight ago, and all things considered that was a very impressive comeback. That day she tracked the pace set by Amitola and always travelled kindly for the majority of the journey, and gave generously for pressure when her race fitness gave way, giving me the impression 8F could see even more improvement. The form to that race is very solid, with the first 2 home looking to have both improved markedly from there previous good runs, which the clock would also corroborate, and both would have had a distinct fitness edge on the filly. In theory on a line through the much improved winner of that race Numeral, in my book she look’s to just about have the beating of Reachforthebucks at tomorrow’s weights.
I’m sure tomorrow Chilli Green will have come on a bundle for her outing, and look’s fairly at home around Kempton’s poly surface, especially at this time of year. John Akehurst yard haven’t had many runners of late but at least has had a win and a place form his last 4, and Dane O’Neill has been in half decent form as well. Tomorrow she has a very handy pitch to jump from, and the faster they go the better it should suit her, and being prominent could well be the place to be in tomorrow's contest.
Just a quick Merry Christmas to all on here, and I've decided to get my only 2 selections in for the next few day's now, as will be spending all my time with the family over next few day's or so, naturally I will escape to take in these two races in.
Bet for day 360 & 361 1pt E.W. Pause and Clause 15.40Kempton 26th and 1pt E.W. Sona Sasta Welsh National…+ 1/2pt E.W double both 20-1 with Coral……..
With the hustle and bustle of Christmas coming up I’ve decided to have an in-depth look at the up and coming card’s, and there are a couple I believe have better chances than their respective odds would indicate, and I’m happy to be involved today at their respective odds. The two horses in question being the Emma Lavelle trained Pause and Clause(15.40Kem Boxing Day), and the David Pipe trained Sona Sasta in the Welsh National on Tuesday.
I will begin with Pause and Clause who has now been given his easiest assignment in an age, and with some recent slack from the assessor is able to drop into a 0-135 class 3 event. Another huge plus is the distance, after trying a trip that’s looked beyond him for his last 4 hurdle races he now reverts to a distance that looks his best, in fact all of his best form is up to 21F Imo which reads 3-1-3-2-1-3-4-5-1-4, and isolating his 21F hurdle runs would read.. 1-3-1. with one of those successes on course.
As well as running out of his comfort zone distance wise he has also been contesting ground that would have been quicker than ideal, and although the forecast conditions at Kempton are not his optimum he will have at least more dig in the ground than his recent races. Another major factor that has swayed into having a punt on this horse is the recent form of the Lavelle yard, and her last 15 runner’s have yielded 6 Wins and three 2nds, with many others within the month running well. So with the positives hugely out weighing the negatives I’m prepared to be involved, and with others in the field with the potential label still on their C.V., and others Imo just looking not good enough, Pasuse and Clause has at least the form in the book that should give him every chance, and should have come on a bundle for his pipe opener at Cheltenham approximately a fortnight ago.
Now onto Sona Sasta in the Welsh National who hugely impressed me on his seasonal debut when running Le Beau Bai close in a slog over 24F on course approximately 3 weeks ago. That day he was running up against a potentially well handicapped horse in Le Beau Bai, and would have most certainly have had the fitness edge on him, and I’m hoping David pipe will give the nod to Conor O’Farrell who has seldom let the yard down in the last year or so, with a nigh on 23% win strike rate and a nice level stake profit of +£25.40. I’m only second guessing the riding arrangements but if that were the case, his claim would be hugely beneficial, and even with his feather weight the additional relief of 3lbs over this extreme trip in the ground could be worth many, many lengths at the finish.
He does look a horse that was purchased for this very type of event, which the way he has been campaigned over the last few seasons would indicate. Staying most definitely looks his game, and looks to be one of those types the yard seem to take their time with, that end up improving out of all recognition in the chasing sphere. The Pipe yard can usually be relied upon to get one fit after a break, and this horse would back up those claims with his seasonal bow, however he has in his last 2 seasons improved a great deal Nto, and if that were the case this time around he could be well treated given his progressive profile. The pipe yard are still ticking along nicely in the form stakes, and at the weights this horse Imo has the beating of plenty ahead of him in the market and may prove to be decent E.W. value at his current odds.
Bet for day 360 & 361 1pt E.W. Pause and Clause 15.40Kempton 26th and 1pt E.W. Sona Sasta Welsh National…+ 1/2pt E.W double both 20-1 with Coral……..
With the hustle and bustle of Christmas coming up I’ve decided to have an in-depth look at the up and coming card’s, and there are a couple I believe have better chances than their respective odds would indicate, and I’m happy to be involved today at their respective odds. The two horses in question being the Emma Lavelle trained Pause and Clause(15.40Kem Boxing Day), and the David Pipe trained Sona Sasta in the Welsh National on Tuesday.
I will begin with Pause and Clause who has now been given his easiest assignment in an age, and with some recent slack from the assessor is able to drop into a 0-135 class 3 event. Another huge plus is the distance, after trying a trip that’s looked beyond him for his last 4 hurdle races he now reverts to a distance that looks his best, in fact all of his best form is up to 21F Imo which reads 3-1-3-2-1-3-4-5-1-4, and isolating his 21F hurdle runs would read.. 1-3-1. with one of those successes on course.
As well as running out of his comfort zone distance wise he has also been contesting ground that would have been quicker than ideal, and although the forecast conditions at Kempton are not his optimum he will have at least more dig in the ground than his recent races. Another major factor that has swayed into having a punt on this horse is the recent form of the Lavelle yard, and her last 15 runner’s have yielded 6 Wins and three 2nds, with many others within the month running well. So with the positives hugely out weighing the negatives I’m prepared to be involved, and with others in the field with the potential label still on their C.V., and others Imo just looking not good enough, Pasuse and Clause has at least the form in the book that should give him every chance, and should have come on a bundle for his pipe opener at Cheltenham approximately a fortnight ago.
Now onto Sona Sasta in the Welsh National who hugely impressed me on his seasonal debut when running Le Beau Bai close in a slog over 24F on course approximately 3 weeks ago. That day he was running up against a potentially well handicapped horse in Le Beau Bai, and would have most certainly have had the fitness edge on him, and I’m hoping David pipe will give the nod to Conor O’Farrell who has seldom let the yard down in the last year or so, with a nigh on 23% win strike rate and a nice level stake profit of +£25.40. I’m only second guessing the riding arrangements but if that were the case, his claim would be hugely beneficial, and even with his feather weight the additional relief of 3lbs over this extreme trip in the ground could be worth many, many lengths at the finish.
He does look a horse that was purchased for this very type of event, which the way he has been campaigned over the last few seasons would indicate. Staying most definitely looks his game, and looks to be one of those types the yard seem to take their time with, that end up improving out of all recognition in the chasing sphere. The Pipe yard can usually be relied upon to get one fit after a break, and this horse would back up those claims with his seasonal bow, however he has in his last 2 seasons improved a great deal Nto, and if that were the case this time around he could be well treated given his progressive profile. The pipe yard are still ticking along nicely in the form stakes, and at the weights this horse Imo has the beating of plenty ahead of him in the market and may prove to be decent E.W. value at his current odds.
Completely agree re Pause and Clause, a good solid e/w.
Unfortunately it looks like Sona Sasta is running in Ireland and I think that Le Beau Bai is still well handicapped and will also have a very solid e/w chance. May back SS in the Paddy Power.
Youv'e a great year, good luck if you do the same thread in 2012.
Unfortunately it looks like Sona Sasta is running in Ireland and I think that Le Beau Bai is still well handicapped and will also have a very solid e/w chance. May back SS in the Paddy Power.
Youv'e a great year, good luck if you do the same thread in 2012.
Merry Christmas, robster, good luck and all the best for 2012.
Happy Christmas Rob, superb thread this year. Many happy returns and look forward to another for the new year
Result day's 355, 360 & 361
Chilli Green Un Pl -4pts
Pause and Clause Un Pl -2pts
Sona Sasta N/R -2pts
Double lost -1pt
Profit / Loss - 9pts
Total 266 1/4 pts
Chilli Green Un Pl -4pts
Pause and Clause Un Pl -2pts
Sona Sasta N/R -2pts
Double lost -1pt
Profit / Loss - 9pts
Total 266 1/4 pts
congrats on seeing the year out robster and a tasty return as well.
Bet for day 362.
2pt E.W. Hatta Stream 14.40 Lingfield 11-2 VC bet & 2pt E.W. Pikin 15.50 Wolverhampton 9-1 PP both BOG...+ 1pt E.w. Double 9-2 & 9-1
Well after a little trough in the proceedings I'm hoping today will put another peak on my year's graph, and have played slightly larger than usual in my bid to get it, here goes....
Today I’ve decided to concentrate my efforts on both the poly track cards, and I believe I have come up with a couple that potentially look very well treated. They are the Mick Easterby’s Pitkin, and the Lydia Pearce trained Hatta Stream.
Starting with Pitkin who like the rest of the field look to have it all on to beat the highly progressive Peace Seeker, who is likely to go off very prohibited odds in his hat trick seeking mission. I know the latter has looked different gravy since being trained by the Carson’s, but if there is going to be a reason for an upset it’s potentially reverting back to left handed, where although he was running for his handicap mark did disappoint over C/D in a maiden a couple of months ago, and has looked stronger over 6/7F. Pitkin in stark contrast has shown very much an appreciation for Wolverhampton’s fast 5F, and duly went back to back late autumn last year off marks 50 & 56. They were his last runs on the surface until recently coming back from a nice break, and in all honesty he could prove to be a much better horse on a poly surface than turf.
As stated he made his recent return to action after a 3 month break over C/D a month ago, and I’m certain will have come on massively for that run, after looking very fresh and fizzed up in the early stages expending unnecessary energy, he did make some steady late gains under very considerate handling on them in front, which to the naked eye looked nothing special, but I think those in the front rank had saved a little during the race and were also quickening. The assessor has dropped him 1lb for that run , and Mick Easterby again has given the nod to Paddy Aspel after riding him in his previous 2 engagements, and I’m certain if the yard do fancy him that price will quickly evaporate.
Now onto Hatta Stream, another who look’s like he is primed for a big run, and looked like he was coming to hand Lto over a distance that is slightly further than today’s optimum. He now returns to 6F on a poly surface which saw him win his last race around this time last year at Kempton in a class 4, and he is now a full 7lb under that mark. He has steadily improved with each of his 3 runs from his break and looks primed for a bold showing in today’s contest, especially reverting back to 6 over a poly surface where he has a very sound record. He’s sure to get a decent pace which he would prefer, and does appear to have the beating of plenty if not all on the book.
2pt E.W. Hatta Stream 14.40 Lingfield 11-2 VC bet & 2pt E.W. Pikin 15.50 Wolverhampton 9-1 PP both BOG...+ 1pt E.w. Double 9-2 & 9-1
Well after a little trough in the proceedings I'm hoping today will put another peak on my year's graph, and have played slightly larger than usual in my bid to get it, here goes....
Today I’ve decided to concentrate my efforts on both the poly track cards, and I believe I have come up with a couple that potentially look very well treated. They are the Mick Easterby’s Pitkin, and the Lydia Pearce trained Hatta Stream.
Starting with Pitkin who like the rest of the field look to have it all on to beat the highly progressive Peace Seeker, who is likely to go off very prohibited odds in his hat trick seeking mission. I know the latter has looked different gravy since being trained by the Carson’s, but if there is going to be a reason for an upset it’s potentially reverting back to left handed, where although he was running for his handicap mark did disappoint over C/D in a maiden a couple of months ago, and has looked stronger over 6/7F. Pitkin in stark contrast has shown very much an appreciation for Wolverhampton’s fast 5F, and duly went back to back late autumn last year off marks 50 & 56. They were his last runs on the surface until recently coming back from a nice break, and in all honesty he could prove to be a much better horse on a poly surface than turf.
As stated he made his recent return to action after a 3 month break over C/D a month ago, and I’m certain will have come on massively for that run, after looking very fresh and fizzed up in the early stages expending unnecessary energy, he did make some steady late gains under very considerate handling on them in front, which to the naked eye looked nothing special, but I think those in the front rank had saved a little during the race and were also quickening. The assessor has dropped him 1lb for that run , and Mick Easterby again has given the nod to Paddy Aspel after riding him in his previous 2 engagements, and I’m certain if the yard do fancy him that price will quickly evaporate.
Now onto Hatta Stream, another who look’s like he is primed for a big run, and looked like he was coming to hand Lto over a distance that is slightly further than today’s optimum. He now returns to 6F on a poly surface which saw him win his last race around this time last year at Kempton in a class 4, and he is now a full 7lb under that mark. He has steadily improved with each of his 3 runs from his break and looks primed for a bold showing in today’s contest, especially reverting back to 6 over a poly surface where he has a very sound record. He’s sure to get a decent pace which he would prefer, and does appear to have the beating of plenty if not all on the book.
ceers happysnapper, been a little tough at times when resluts haven't gone my way, but gave myself some breathing space form time to time and kept at it. I'm never going to make millions, but when the big winners do pop up it makes all the hard work worth while.
Bet day 363. 1pt E.W. Rylee Mooch 13-2 generally & 1/2pt E.W Ghostwing 25-1 Ladbrokes
After putting Rylee Mooch up for a contest at Kempton 9 days ago, only to see him scratched, I’m prepared to keep him on side over today’s 5F at Southwell, and anyone that wants to see my reasoning can reflect on that last write up.
I’m also prepared to keep my ever diminishing faith with the enigma that is Ghostwing, who is either being lined up for a gamble of Barney Curly proportions, or is well and truly in the “dodge pot” category, and judging on the ride he was given Lto, the former could still be a live possibility.
After recently questioning myself about putting Ghostwing up early December, yet again I’ve talked myself into a punt. He is one of those frustrating very well handicapped horses that you now and again come across(is today the day or not), and you can bet you bottom dollar if you’re not involved they usually sluice in at very big odds. Today connections are bringing him back to the minimum trip of 5F, as well as giving him his debut on fibre sand, and they are able to do this on his lowest ever mark of 75 in the lowest class he has contested to date. No one with any sanity can possibly make a case form wise for this horse, but there are to many new combinations that make him of small interest in this event… trip, course and the booking of Steve Drowne (Southwell been kind over the years) may well to the trick in un-locking this horse’s ability, if of course it’s still there to un-lock?.
After putting Rylee Mooch up for a contest at Kempton 9 days ago, only to see him scratched, I’m prepared to keep him on side over today’s 5F at Southwell, and anyone that wants to see my reasoning can reflect on that last write up.
I’m also prepared to keep my ever diminishing faith with the enigma that is Ghostwing, who is either being lined up for a gamble of Barney Curly proportions, or is well and truly in the “dodge pot” category, and judging on the ride he was given Lto, the former could still be a live possibility.
After recently questioning myself about putting Ghostwing up early December, yet again I’ve talked myself into a punt. He is one of those frustrating very well handicapped horses that you now and again come across(is today the day or not), and you can bet you bottom dollar if you’re not involved they usually sluice in at very big odds. Today connections are bringing him back to the minimum trip of 5F, as well as giving him his debut on fibre sand, and they are able to do this on his lowest ever mark of 75 in the lowest class he has contested to date. No one with any sanity can possibly make a case form wise for this horse, but there are to many new combinations that make him of small interest in this event… trip, course and the booking of Steve Drowne (Southwell been kind over the years) may well to the trick in un-locking this horse’s ability, if of course it’s still there to un-lock?.
Result day 362.
Hatta Stream Won 11-2 + 13 3/4pts
Pitkin Un Pl - 4pts
Double Lost - 2pts
Profit / Loss + 7 3/4pts
Total 274 pts
Hatta Stream Won 11-2 + 13 3/4pts
Pitkin Un Pl - 4pts
Double Lost - 2pts
Profit / Loss + 7 3/4pts
Total 274 pts
Bet for day 364. 2pts E.W. Tombi 16.40 Wolverhampton 10-1 Whill BOG write up to follow....
Tomorrow sees Tombi stepping back into handicap company after taking in 3 claimers, and most recently a seller. Those races were a far cry from what he was competing in during the summer, and now Ollie Pears look’s to have him in a race where he should at least get competitive, and if Lto is any indicator of this horse’s wellbeing he may well be set to trouble the judge in some capacity.
This horse as stated was attempting to mix it in class2 sprints for the majority of the summer, and with no real effect if the truth be known. As a result of those poor run’s was dropped into claiming level, and his 2 run’s in claming company on the A.W. he was giving lumps of weight away to some reasonable yard sticks on the surface, but did not really show enough to suggest what he was going to do on his next start in a seller over C/D. That was his last run, which was at the start of the month, and the yard looked to have sweetened him up nicely as he won a highly competitive seller very cosily indeed, given an excellent patient ride by Jimmy Fortune, bordering on not trying.
That was only his 3rd run on a poly track, and with his pedigree being a half decent USA one, and has some decent relations that have excelled on dirt, there maybe even further progression to be made on this type of surface, and given the manner he won his previous race you certainly wouldn’t rule it out.
Another factor for getting involved with the horse tomorrow is his trainer, and Ollie Pears is a trainer that does extremely well with his lot, and is usually very astute at placing his horses. He has also been worth following at Wolverhampton this year, having a nigh on 23% win strike rate from his 31 runners so far, and a fairly nice £9.58 profit to a £1 level stake. If Tombi is going to replicate his feat of Lto he will no doubt be a hostage to fortune, but at least he will be assured of a decent gallop to settle off and hopefully pick up the pieces late on in what looks a very open affair.
This horse as stated was attempting to mix it in class2 sprints for the majority of the summer, and with no real effect if the truth be known. As a result of those poor run’s was dropped into claiming level, and his 2 run’s in claming company on the A.W. he was giving lumps of weight away to some reasonable yard sticks on the surface, but did not really show enough to suggest what he was going to do on his next start in a seller over C/D. That was his last run, which was at the start of the month, and the yard looked to have sweetened him up nicely as he won a highly competitive seller very cosily indeed, given an excellent patient ride by Jimmy Fortune, bordering on not trying.
That was only his 3rd run on a poly track, and with his pedigree being a half decent USA one, and has some decent relations that have excelled on dirt, there maybe even further progression to be made on this type of surface, and given the manner he won his previous race you certainly wouldn’t rule it out.
Another factor for getting involved with the horse tomorrow is his trainer, and Ollie Pears is a trainer that does extremely well with his lot, and is usually very astute at placing his horses. He has also been worth following at Wolverhampton this year, having a nigh on 23% win strike rate from his 31 runners so far, and a fairly nice £9.58 profit to a £1 level stake. If Tombi is going to replicate his feat of Lto he will no doubt be a hostage to fortune, but at least he will be assured of a decent gallop to settle off and hopefully pick up the pieces late on in what looks a very open affair.
Final bet(s) day 364. 2pt E.W. Titan Triumph 16.45 Lingfield 5-1 WHill + 1/2pt E.W. double with Tombi @ 8's BOG write up to follow.....
Titan Triumph 2:45 Lingfield (14:45) - Is also engaged to run their Saturday, though today's 1m ought to suit better than tomorrow's 7f.
After looking at this race yesterday evening Titan Triumph was the horse I had as the potential bet to nothing, but had him roughly a 6 / 7-1 shot. However after looking through the handicap, as well as Titan Triumph over all record the more I looked at the 5’s the more I thought it to be a fair reflection of his chance, and if hitting the frame will at least get his supporters their hard earned back.
A big reason I was swayed into having a bet to nothing is this horse’s form on course over a mile, and especially at around this time of year. He has had 10 starts over C/D with form figures that read 3-1-1-1-2-1-1-2-7-6 with his first win coming off 72, peaking at 91, and his last win coming off 80 in January this year. As stated his form figures around December/January are not too shabby either 3-1-1-2-1-4, with that latest 4th being over 7F on course a few weeks ago. That day he had the worst of the draw boxed up 14 of 14, but Jim Crowley dropped this horse out and took his time, and was travelling powerfully in behind the main bunch just before turning in. However the pace that day looked far from frantic for a 7F event, and it payed to be handy as the result would suggest, the first 3 home were in the first 5 throughout the race, with Titan Triumph far and away the best of those that were held up, finishing with purpose looking like the step back up would suit no end.
Having already had a good idea of this race via a recent selection Chilli Green, I believe the first 2 horses home did improve from their previous good run’s, and at the grade was a reasonable piece of form. Jim Crowley get’s the leg up again, and knows this old boy very well having won on him 5 of his 8 career victories, all over a mile on a poly surface(4C/D the other at Great Leighs). There are so many huge positives for this horse today, and off his mark of 77 is still 3 lb lower than his last win, and judging on that last run looking very much like he’s coming to hand .
A big reason I was swayed into having a bet to nothing is this horse’s form on course over a mile, and especially at around this time of year. He has had 10 starts over C/D with form figures that read 3-1-1-1-2-1-1-2-7-6 with his first win coming off 72, peaking at 91, and his last win coming off 80 in January this year. As stated his form figures around December/January are not too shabby either 3-1-1-2-1-4, with that latest 4th being over 7F on course a few weeks ago. That day he had the worst of the draw boxed up 14 of 14, but Jim Crowley dropped this horse out and took his time, and was travelling powerfully in behind the main bunch just before turning in. However the pace that day looked far from frantic for a 7F event, and it payed to be handy as the result would suggest, the first 3 home were in the first 5 throughout the race, with Titan Triumph far and away the best of those that were held up, finishing with purpose looking like the step back up would suit no end.
Having already had a good idea of this race via a recent selection Chilli Green, I believe the first 2 horses home did improve from their previous good run’s, and at the grade was a reasonable piece of form. Jim Crowley get’s the leg up again, and knows this old boy very well having won on him 5 of his 8 career victories, all over a mile on a poly surface(4C/D the other at Great Leighs). There are so many huge positives for this horse today, and off his mark of 77 is still 3 lb lower than his last win, and judging on that last run looking very much like he’s coming to hand .
Result day 363.
Rylee Mooch Pl 8-1 (13-2adv BOG) + 1pt
Ghostwing Pl 7-1 (25's adv) + 2pts
Profit / Loss + 3pts
Total 277 pts
Rylee Mooch Pl 8-1 (13-2adv BOG) + 1pt
Ghostwing Pl 7-1 (25's adv) + 2pts
Profit / Loss + 3pts
Total 277 pts
Bet for day 365. 2pts E.W. Double Whammy 12.20 Newbury 14-1 generally BOG…
The 12.20 at Newbury where Night Alliance will be a very popular choice for most, and understandably so after his impressive chase debut win, and if the extra yardage suits he looks the one to beat. Saying that I’m prepared to take him on with a potential horse in Double Whammy, who did shape reasonably well on his chase debut over C/D just over a month ago.
I get the feeling early in his career he was hard to keep sound, and after only taking in 5 races on the level embarked on a hurdling campaign last season. He only took in 4 contests in that particular season and it’s the two races over today’s distance at Folkestone that stand out. The first of those he finished a reasonably close 3rd behind Global Power, where he outran his odds of 66-1 by miles, with a fair few in the field turning out to be decent animals. He then returned to that venue to only find the highly rated Carpinco to good, but none the less ran an excellent race. His last race of the season was over an extended 3 miles at today’s venue, where again he ran a reasonable sort of race among some classier individuals.
As alluded to he did run a pleasing seasonal debut over C/D, and on the whole jumped very well. He did make some typical novicey mistakes, but Mattie Bachelor gave this horse plenty of time to get organised after those mistakes, and never really forced any issues in what looked a very sympathetic introduction. He did however finish his race off very well from an uncompromising position, and on his mark of 114 may prove to be relatively well treated. I’m sure he will come on hugely for that last run both fitness and experience wise, and is still young enough and very lightly race to make any amount of natural progression.
The 12.20 at Newbury where Night Alliance will be a very popular choice for most, and understandably so after his impressive chase debut win, and if the extra yardage suits he looks the one to beat. Saying that I’m prepared to take him on with a potential horse in Double Whammy, who did shape reasonably well on his chase debut over C/D just over a month ago.
I get the feeling early in his career he was hard to keep sound, and after only taking in 5 races on the level embarked on a hurdling campaign last season. He only took in 4 contests in that particular season and it’s the two races over today’s distance at Folkestone that stand out. The first of those he finished a reasonably close 3rd behind Global Power, where he outran his odds of 66-1 by miles, with a fair few in the field turning out to be decent animals. He then returned to that venue to only find the highly rated Carpinco to good, but none the less ran an excellent race. His last race of the season was over an extended 3 miles at today’s venue, where again he ran a reasonable sort of race among some classier individuals.
As alluded to he did run a pleasing seasonal debut over C/D, and on the whole jumped very well. He did make some typical novicey mistakes, but Mattie Bachelor gave this horse plenty of time to get organised after those mistakes, and never really forced any issues in what looked a very sympathetic introduction. He did however finish his race off very well from an uncompromising position, and on his mark of 114 may prove to be relatively well treated. I’m sure he will come on hugely for that last run both fitness and experience wise, and is still young enough and very lightly race to make any amount of natural progression.
Result day 364.
Titan Triumph Pl + 0pts
Tombi Un Pl - 4pts
Double lost -2pts
Profit / Loss - 6pts
Total 271 pts
Titan Triumph Pl + 0pts
Tombi Un Pl - 4pts
Double lost -2pts
Profit / Loss - 6pts
Total 271 pts
Result day 365.
Double Whammy Un Pl - 4pts
Profit / Loss - 4 pts
Total 267 Pts
Double Whammy Un Pl - 4pts
Profit / Loss - 4 pts
Total 267 Pts
Well the year has finally come to an end, and with it this thread, but I have crunched some figures from the past year regarding my selections to level stakes…
January 43 selections 6 winners +2pts @ advised prices - 12pts @ Industry sp
February 24 selections 2 winners -9pts - 13pts
March 29 selections 2 winners -1/2pt - 2pts
April 31 selections 5 winners + 32 1/2pts + 14 1/2pts
May 38 selections 4 winners + 6pts - 7 pts
June 33 selections 2 winners - 6pts - 11pts
July 2 selections 0 winners - 2pts - 2pts
August 31 selections 4 winners - 1/2pt - 8 1/2pts
September 10 selections 0 winners - 10pts - 10pts
October 9 selections 0 winners - 9pts - 9pts
November 42 selections 8 winners + 103 1/2pts + 77 pts
December 36 selections 4 winners + 1 1/2pts - 6pts
Total + 108 1/2pts + 11 pts
328 selections with 37 winners
At first glance its hardly great reading, however I personally like playing E.W. and although you use plenty more points betting this way I think the range of prices I personally select it’s a must, and has served me relatively well throughout the year.
I have finished the year off +167 points, an average of +13.9 pts profit per month. The 3 main reason’s for starting the thread was firstly to keep track of my bets, and using it to have an accurate gage of how much money I was loosing/making, secondly to ascertain the demographic information to possibly see my strengths and weaknesses in betting area’s and use the information to try and become more efficient in betting terms. The 3rd was to generate interest and debate regarding my selections, and I’d like to thank everyone that has commented and left input on here, and hopefully at times you’ve joined in some of the more successful punts.
January 43 selections 6 winners +2pts @ advised prices - 12pts @ Industry sp
February 24 selections 2 winners -9pts - 13pts
March 29 selections 2 winners -1/2pt - 2pts
April 31 selections 5 winners + 32 1/2pts + 14 1/2pts
May 38 selections 4 winners + 6pts - 7 pts
June 33 selections 2 winners - 6pts - 11pts
July 2 selections 0 winners - 2pts - 2pts
August 31 selections 4 winners - 1/2pt - 8 1/2pts
September 10 selections 0 winners - 10pts - 10pts
October 9 selections 0 winners - 9pts - 9pts
November 42 selections 8 winners + 103 1/2pts + 77 pts
December 36 selections 4 winners + 1 1/2pts - 6pts
Total + 108 1/2pts + 11 pts
328 selections with 37 winners
At first glance its hardly great reading, however I personally like playing E.W. and although you use plenty more points betting this way I think the range of prices I personally select it’s a must, and has served me relatively well throughout the year.
I have finished the year off +167 points, an average of +13.9 pts profit per month. The 3 main reason’s for starting the thread was firstly to keep track of my bets, and using it to have an accurate gage of how much money I was loosing/making, secondly to ascertain the demographic information to possibly see my strengths and weaknesses in betting area’s and use the information to try and become more efficient in betting terms. The 3rd was to generate interest and debate regarding my selections, and I’d like to thank everyone that has commented and left input on here, and hopefully at times you’ve joined in some of the more successful punts.
impressive!, profit figures and the fact your thread lasted a year
Well Done on both counts therobster27
have a prosperous 2012
Well Done on both counts therobster27
have a prosperous 2012
Rob,
Well done on keeping it going & for obtaining a nice profit. It has always been a thread worth reading.
My best wishes for a prosperous 2012.
Well done on keeping it going & for obtaining a nice profit. It has always been a thread worth reading.
My best wishes for a prosperous 2012.
Seems the years gone quick M8...............youve done what you set out to do.............W.D.............."Happy new Year"
Oustanding performance robster... good luck for next year fella.
great thread ,takes some doing to keep it going.
happy new year
donethetime27
happy new year
donethetime27
great thread ,takes some doing to keep it going.
happy new year
donethetime27
happy new year
donethetime27
Always a good read Robster
All the best for next one
All the best for next one
Brilliant thread Rob and fantastic profit.
Same again for this year
Same again for this year
yes well done.
takes some doing keeping a thread going for a year.
takes some doing keeping a thread going for a year.
Well done with last years selections and thank you for the level stakes figures
Well done Robster an excellent and entertaining thread throughout the year, did what you set out to do. I think what this thread shows more than anything is the importance of having a bank and having your own opinions and getting on at early prices! Would have been an interesting comparison to work out profits at SP as well.
Look forward to reading this years thread Robster.
Look forward to reading this years thread Robster.
I agree with Deltâ,Well Done,cant believe this is the first I've seen this thread.
Did show the working to level stakes sp on previous page stewarts rise, have not got around to crunching the figures yet for the way I played it to sp.
Great thread "rob", moved abroad but back online now,how´s tricks?
GGR
GGR
How do GGR, long time no hear? Will you be dipping back into the forum on a regular basis now you’re settled and back on the net? Same old tricks for me, I’ve started another thread same title but added a (2). Started the year well, but I’m encountering a little turbulence at present but hopefully will start finding the winners again soon. Hope your well, nice to see you posting
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