There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
31 Dec 10
19:46
Joined:
Date Joined:
14 Apr 06
I am making a new years resolution to be 100% totally disciplined when it comes to gambling, It's not to bad now, but many years ago I used to, like many, chase my money and have spur of the moment stupid, stupid bet's without even anythought going into the selection, thankfully them days are long behind me, don't get me wrong if I ever go racing a little of my old self comes to the fore, but it's budgeted for accordingly. Starting from tomorrow, I'm going to start a thread/blog to try and double a starting bank of 100pts by the end of the year...to me that's £20 per point (£2000).
Unlike photo finish man / If.. I certainly won't be having a 1000pts max bet on 8-11 shot's, I will be posting my stake's in accordance to how strongly I fancy, whether there singles double's R/F or on occasion's multi bets(rare). half point unit's to my max bet of 5.... basically for me putting up a 5 pointer, it would mean having dinner with the Quinnlans !!! please feel free to (constructively) criticize, and feel free to leave your own input on any of my selections, and please remember these are just my humble opinions on trying to take the green stuff out of those bookies satchels.
All my bets will be posted the night before or early morning, if and when I see the right opportunity at (imo) the right price, I will post. I'm not trying to scam, or put anyone away, and at the end of the day it's only my time and effort I'd be wasting trawling through form etc..., which I enjoy doing regardless. I wish all the forumites a very happy and prosperous new year, as we go head to head against the enemy(bookies)
Best wishes from therobster for 2011
Unlike photo finish man / If.. I certainly won't be having a 1000pts max bet on 8-11 shot's, I will be posting my stake's in accordance to how strongly I fancy, whether there singles double's R/F or on occasion's multi bets(rare). half point unit's to my max bet of 5.... basically for me putting up a 5 pointer, it would mean having dinner with the Quinnlans !!! please feel free to (constructively) criticize, and feel free to leave your own input on any of my selections, and please remember these are just my humble opinions on trying to take the green stuff out of those bookies satchels.
All my bets will be posted the night before or early morning, if and when I see the right opportunity at (imo) the right price, I will post. I'm not trying to scam, or put anyone away, and at the end of the day it's only my time and effort I'd be wasting trawling through form etc..., which I enjoy doing regardless. I wish all the forumites a very happy and prosperous new year, as we go head to head against the enemy(bookies)
Best wishes from therobster for 2011
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,530
|
By:
propper post
happy new year........................G.L. |
|
By:
all the best with it.happy new year
|
|
By:
All the best with the venture and good luck to all in 2011. [;)]
|
|
By:
All the best rob,your's is one of the first posts i look at when i am sorting out my bets....................Happy new year to you.
 |
|
By:
Morning all, and a happy new year..... as advised above I will be starting my blog from today with a 100pt bank and try and double(or better) by the end of the year,here goes nothing.......
12.20 at Cheltenham, my first bet of 2011, and the honor falls on the withers of the Howard Johnson trained "On His Own", Hailing from the Irish point scene, I thought this horse looked destined for better things when winning his bumper under rules at Leopardstown, and obviously so did Graham Wylie, as he waved the check book to almost the tune of quarter of a million, to secure his future service's. That day on ground described as yielding, simply tanked along from the off, and Mr Quinlan whom rode him that day was looking in both wing mirror's along way out, Some Target did close him down late on,but imo he was never going to get past him. His next run was for H.Johnson and Co, in the Champion bumper, but that day he never traveled with the same enthusiasm as his previous race, may be the good ground was not to his liking, or simply out classed, but when his chance had gone turning for home, Denis O'Regan looked after this horse, with another day in mind. If today is that day, a lot has to be taken on trust fitness wise, as like many possibly won't have been able to do his fair quota of work due to inclement conditions, but I think the f/cast going G/Soft, will be more to his liking, and the step up in trip very much a positive, and the fact he is getting weight concessions off most of his rivals makes him a speculative e.w. bet for me. half point e.w. with skybet @ 28-1, don't think you will beat that. another bet to folllow... |
|
By:
Good luck mate, will you be posting selections on the forum or only on a blog on the forumbeta forum?
Best of luck with it |
|
By:
Just going to keep posting/updating on this thread Satelliteflight, just keep's thing's simpler, sorry for any confusion, and thanks for the wishes, you tend to need a lot of luck in this game.
|
|
By:
No problem mate [;)]
|
|
By:
Be lucky Robster. Real good stuff and worth following
|
|
By:
Cheer's FLC, lets hope we all have a good year, and take the green's from the enemy,[;)]
|
|
By:
Good Post
GL |
|
By:
The 14.00 @ Cheltenham, my concluding bet of the day is "Mr Thriller". Imo, just short of top class over hurdles, but non the less a very talented individual. Although not a great record around Cheltenham 0-5, Lto was running a smashing race against Time For Rupert and a few other's whom re apposes today. That was Mr Thriller's seasonal debut and in the early stages did over race a little and looked very fresh, that day I was very impressed with the manner he attacked his fence's and looks' like he has taken to the bigger obstacles like a duck to water. He had all his rivals on the stretch that day and was in the process of giving Time For Rupert a run for his money before coming to grief two out, for me that was simply through tiredness, whether or not he would have won/finished place is anyones guess.
Although the Pipe yard are master's of getting animals fit first time, I'm sure he will have came on leaps and bound's fitness wise and experience wise to break his Cheltenham hoodoo!, as I eluded to yesterday, I think the Pipe yard are running into form, and this horse won't mind if the ground gets any softer later with racing... the softer the better for this lad,and if his confidence has not been dented by his fall, should run a big race this afternoon.... 1pt e.w. 9-2 generally, is my bet. |
|
By:
Good luck today, robster, and with the thread.
|
|
By:
Yeah great stuff.
|
|
By:
Result Day 1 On His Own Un Placed -1pt
Mr Thriller Un Placed -2pts win / loss on day -3pts Balance 97pts Not the ideal start,  but plenty of time to make ammends!!!! [;)] |
|
By:
plenty of time rob,just stick to your opinions and dont let a few bad days alter how you look at things,will be interesting to follow. good luck with it mate,always admire people having a go and brave enough to put up before the race.
|
|
By:
All the best with this venture.
Always respected your opinions on the AW gl GGR |
|
By:
My selection's for tomorrow both run in the 15.05 at Southwell, and are both double figure price's. Charles Parnell, whom won the contest last year off 64, now returns to replicate that feat off 60, with the added extra bonus of Nora Looby's 7lb claim. His only other run in the month of January came the year before, when he finished 2nd in a class 4 off 82. he can be forgiven for his run lto over 7, 0-9 over 7F, and back at 6F tomorrow hopefully will see him in a better light, at this time of year.
The second of my selection's is Errigal Lad, who has also slipped down to a very attractive mark, after starting off in the spring off 78, now finds himself off 57 tomorrow. The yard now appears to be in excellent form, the last 10 runner's read's 1-3-4-5-1-2-1-4-4-1. He also has the assistance of Luke Morris, whom has had 11 rides for the stable this year, winning on 4 and placing on another 4, that's a nigh on 37% strike rate and for £1 level stake you would be £35 to the good. At 18-1 & 14-1 respectively with William Hill BOG, I'm having a half point e.w. on both. |
|
By:
gl rob [;)] like Errigal Lad too
|
|
By:
extra bet, for day2..... Noble Billy 14.10 @ PLumpton. Anymore easing in the ground will most certainly be in this lad's favour, for one thing he does do is go in the mud, and stay's well. He appears to act on course, with a win(luckily) and a 2nd, from 3 starts, which is a huge positive around Plumpton. Lto ran a pleasing comeback race over a trip that would not have played to his strengths, and all horses the 4 who finished in front of him that day all had previous run's under their belt's, that outing will have blown a few cobwebs away, and should be fitter for todays job in hand. N B King has his team in great order, and this horse looks primed to run well. 1pt e.w. 8-1 BOG B365
|
|
By:
just put noble billy in my placepot before i read your post robster,mind you i have got 5 in that race!! good luck fella
|
|
By:
G.L. rawcs, think Noble Billy a better chance than most, at least being in the pot for you.
|
|
By:
Result day 2
Charles Parnel Un Pl -1 Errigal Lad Un Pl -1 Noble Billy Un Pl -2 win / loss -4 Balance 93pts |
|
By:
day 3 selection..... My attention's have been drawn to a nice sort of handicap at Ayr, the 14.05 to be precise, in which there are a few up and coming chaser's such as Eyre Square and Isla Pearl, whom both could still be feasibly handicapped , as well as a couple of dark horses such as the Nicky Richards trained Flaming Thistle or On Gossamer Wings , brought over to pilfer some sterling perhaps?, however I am willing to take a chance first time out on the Ayr Standing dish "Morgan Be", all of his 5 career wins have come on course, as well as a 2nd from 6 attempts, and is 2-2 over tomorrows C/D. After some very lackluster runs last year, he now finds' himself on a mark of a 115, 8lb lower than his last winning mark over C/D, albeit over 2 years ago.
This horse now also find's himself dropped to the lowest grade he has contested for over 4years, and although tomorrow he is coming back from a 275 day absence, he has run well after long lay offs in the past. Richey McGrath resumes his partnership with this horse, whom he know's very well and won on him several times before, any softening of the ground will be a bonus, as all best form has came on soft/heavy going.... So at 25-1 BOG with a couple of firm's this evening, I'm have a half point e.w. and hope the break has sweetened him up, to somewhere near his old self. GL |
|
By:
Day 3...2nd and final selection for tomorrow.
I am willing to take a chance on a one running in the 15.00 at Hereford at huge odds, that's the B J M Ryall trained "Cypress Grove". This horse has obviously had huge problem's as he has been off the track best part of 2 year's before making his comeback at Exeter a few week's ago. I thought this horse had reasonable enough form as a novice, and particularly his good third over 19F at Newbury, behind Bakbenscher and Captain Americo. In his come back race he raced just up behind the pace before petering out of things as the pace quickened, but did plug on to at least beat half the field, and judging by the replay Wayne Hutchinson was really looking after this lad, imo he was never asked to get involved in the later stages, and saved from anywhere near a hard race, Dream Esteem 3rd and Horseford 8th have given the form a little boost. Tomorrow's trip an unknown, but his racing style suggest's that it may suit, and with that run under his belt, a little more help from the assessor, and the going sure to suit, he may be able to creep into a place if he retains any of his old ability, with the emphasis being on if!... I will have a half point e.w. @ 50-1 BOG with Bet365 + a quarter point e.w. double with Morgan Be 25-1 @ Ayr.. |
|
By:
G.L..........M8
|
|
By:
Now 3 non runner's in Morgan Be race, anyone know if it's due to ground firming/softening?... still described as good /GS on RP site
|
|
By:
GOING..........change GOOD G/SFT in places ?
|
|
By:
Sorry mange, I missed the "in places" off the end, but that does seem to be the f/cast going... seem's to be decent money about for Revely horse, they were ploughing in before the non runner's! Morgan Be will do for me [;)]
|
|
By:
robster.....think that ive just had a good bet
Lin 1.10.....2 Lin3,20......8 5/1 & 4/1......place double £203-to £7 do you ever bet like this ? |
|
By:
Tbh, I don't do place only bet's mange, especially in races with less than the dead 8. If you have had a place double, you must think that your selection must also have a reasonable chance of winning, especially the first race with only 2places up for grab's??? you may want to have a v small Win double, just in case they both suprise
GL with them |
|
By:
= mudlarks |
|
By:
Pete The Feat, in your first race =
mudlark, not quite sure how effective he will prove to be over this shorter trip, however has won his last 2 and has a sound chance on the balance of things. No bet for me mange, but hope they both at least squeeze in for you |
|
By:
robster: Your sensible posts and race write-ups are very much appreciated. Keep up the good work.
|
|
By:
Morgan Be a non runner
. ground must not be suitable. |
|
By:
SO it wasent just haveing a run
|
|
By:
I get that feeling to mange...horses 4 courses, never mind always another time,[;)]
|
|
By:
reults day 3
Cypress Grove Un Pl -1pt Morgan Be NR 0 pt e.w. double Un Pl -1/2 pt Total win / loss -1 1/2pts Balance 91 1/2 pts |
|
By:
Day 4 bet.... Kempton 16.30, very much a case of de'javu, with a good few re opposing from their Lingfield encounter a few or so weeks ago, and with that very badly run needed I think it is time to side with "Benhego", This appears to be the stable second string, whom also have the likely favourite Al Amaan in the contest, however that can only be a plus if Mr Findlay is to have a tilt with his horse tomorrow, as it is potentially giving his horse a much bigger look price wise in the market, and at 12-1 available with William Hill, Imo it's time to step in, as I think he may be a single figure price come post time..
As I have already eluded to, this horse would have badly needed his run lto at Lingfield from his 562 day absence, and did not disgrace himself either, after making only a moderate pace early, then sitting in behind it, he was headed and flanked on either side turning into the straight, and you would have forgiven him for tiring badly and finishing well beaten, however although he looked very tired, he did keep on to secure 4th place, and considerately handled by his jockey, and that imo was an excellent come back race. The horse has been given a nice period of post race time to recover from his exertion, and tomorrow I'm sure If he get's an easy lead like he was gifted LTO for most of the journey, with better fitness levels tomorrow Amir Quinn will make much more use of his stamina, and he will be a much harder nut to crack in the home straight, especially being a few pound's better off with his stable companion, and 4lb better with the Lingfield specialist Kiss a Prince, whom both were much fitter lto than the selection, A half point e.w. with William Hill BOG @ 12-1 is my sole trade tomorrow. GL |