New Posts For Thread: Most bettors can't tell the difference between bad luck and bad picks — I built something to find ouhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31911481/most-bettors-cant-tell-the-difference-between-bad-luck-and-bad-picks-i-built-something-to-find-ouI tracked 1,504 horse racing bets against Betfair SP — here's what I foundLike a lot of people here I'd been logging bets in a spreadsheet for years but never really interrogating whether I was finding value or just getting lucky.Six months ago I b9 bets today, +2.9 Thats 32% ROI, which is unsustainable long term, but most punters would regard +2.9 as not worthy of their time.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31911481/most-bettors-cant-tell-the-difference-between-bad-luck-and-bad-picks-i-built-something-to-find-ou?post_id=565588549#5655885499 bets today, +2.9 Thats 32% ROI, which is unsustainable long term, but most punters would regard +2.9 as not worthy of their time.Sun, 20 Sep 2026 11:19:36 -0500Gaze used to make me laugh, claiming he had a system with a 40% ROI. But when I asked over what sample size he say "14". Pros make around 5-10% Roi long term,(hundreds of bets) which is a slow steady grind usually. Thats usually too slow for the averhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31911481/most-bettors-cant-tell-the-difference-between-bad-luck-and-bad-picks-i-built-something-to-find-ou?post_id=565588235#565588235Gaze used to make me laugh, claiming he had a system with a 40% ROI. But when I asked over what sample size he say "14". Pros make around 5-10% Roi long term,(hundreds of bets) which is a slow steady grind usually. Thats usually too slow for the averSun, 20 Sep 2026 08:59:07 -0500Also completely agree on the sample sizes pointed out by some in this thread. The app does state when sample sizes are too low to be a true reflection and that any fluctuations at these small sample sizes will just be variance. In August for examplehttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31911481/most-bettors-cant-tell-the-difference-between-bad-luck-and-bad-picks-i-built-something-to-find-ou?post_id=565588233#565588233Also completely agree on the sample sizes pointed out by some in this thread. The app does state when sample sizes are too low to be a true reflection and that any fluctuations at these small sample sizes will just be variance. In August for exampleSun, 20 Sep 2026 08:58:00 -0500Also completely agree on the sample sizes pointed out by some in this thread. The app does state when sample sizes are too low to be a true reflection and that any fluctuations at these small sample sizes will just be variance. In August for examplehttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31911481/most-bettors-cant-tell-the-difference-between-bad-luck-and-bad-picks-i-built-something-to-find-ou?post_id=565588231#565588231Also completely agree on the sample sizes pointed out by some in this thread. The app does state when sample sizes are too low to be a true reflection and that any fluctuations at these small sample sizes will just be variance. In August for exampleSun, 20 Sep 2026 08:57:57 -0500One of the key driving factors behind creating this app was to help people identify good and bad tipsters. I often see tipsters who shout the loudest have the biggest following - often tipping short priced horses and BOOM'ing when they win, sharing bhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31911481/most-bettors-cant-tell-the-difference-between-bad-luck-and-bad-picks-i-built-something-to-find-ou?post_id=565588223#565588223One of the key driving factors behind creating this app was to help people identify good and bad tipsters. I often see tipsters who shout the loudest have the biggest following - often tipping short priced horses and BOOM'ing when they win, sharing bSun, 20 Sep 2026 08:53:14 -0500I think that could be a problem with the OP's offer, Tiger. It enables real-time, effortless analysis of your results, so you are inevitably going to be spotting trends long before you've had enough bets to be sure the trend is not just down to luck.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31911481/most-bettors-cant-tell-the-difference-between-bad-luck-and-bad-picks-i-built-something-to-find-ou?post_id=565588159#565588159I think that could be a problem with the OP's offer, Tiger. It enables real-time, effortless analysis of your results, so you are inevitably going to be spotting trends long before you've had enough bets to be sure the trend is not just down to luck.Sun, 20 Sep 2026 08:14:33 -0500if you wish to know if your bets are bad luck or bad picks, just increase the sample size. Losing after 100 bets could be bad luck (variance), losing after 500 bets will almost certainly be a result of bad pickshttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31911481/most-bettors-cant-tell-the-difference-between-bad-luck-and-bad-picks-i-built-something-to-find-ou?post_id=565588039#565588039if you wish to know if your bets are bad luck or bad picks, just increase the sample size. Losing after 100 bets could be bad luck (variance), losing after 500 bets will almost certainly be a result of bad picksSun, 20 Sep 2026 06:45:55 -0500yesterdays racing was a classic example. I had 30 bets and made 1.4 points profit. I had 11 other bets on horses whos odds dropped significantly lower than the odds id already taken and those bets made 6.7 points of profit with a much greater strikehttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31911481/most-bettors-cant-tell-the-difference-between-bad-luck-and-bad-picks-i-built-something-to-find-ou?post_id=565588001#565588001yesterdays racing was a classic example. I had 30 bets and made 1.4 points profit. I had 11 other bets on horses whos odds dropped significantly lower than the odds id already taken and those bets made 6.7 points of profit with a much greater strikeSun, 20 Sep 2026 06:16:38 -05002 very good posts Screaming. Im like you, never did excel or spreadsheets at school on account of computers hadn't been invented. So i have everything jotted down on A4 refill pads. Always gets a laugh in Home Bargains when I announce to my Mrs rathehttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31911481/most-bettors-cant-tell-the-difference-between-bad-luck-and-bad-picks-i-built-something-to-find-ou?post_id=565587997#5655879972 very good posts Screaming. Im like you, never did excel or spreadsheets at school on account of computers hadn't been invented. So i have everything jotted down on A4 refill pads. Always gets a laugh in Home Bargains when I announce to my Mrs ratheSun, 20 Sep 2026 06:12:50 -0500@management - agreeOne further point before I head off to the footy #mot, is the effect on prices from the "tips" of influencers who have a social media following. Not a subject I am an expert on but it makes it harder to understand whether a price mhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31911481/most-bettors-cant-tell-the-difference-between-bad-luck-and-bad-picks-i-built-something-to-find-ou?post_id=565587985#565587985@management - agreeOne further point before I head off to the footy #mot, is the effect on prices from the "tips" of influencers who have a social media following. Not a subject I am an expert on but it makes it harder to understand whether a price mSun, 20 Sep 2026 05:59:11 -0500