New Posts For Thread: Thought experimenthttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31881041/thought-experimentImagine that I have unearthed a lucrative betting system. It involves, for the sake of argument, horses priced at 10-1 in races of 8 to 15 runners. I compare my % of winning horses to that of all 10-1 horses in these races. Naturally my winning % isThe answer is, it depends.If OP's system identifies a subset of placed horses which are more likely to win, then the number of 2nds and 3rds will fall.Two examples: one of each type.OP's system identifies horses which run faster than other horses. Thhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31881041/thought-experiment?post_id=564896559#564896559The answer is, it depends.If OP's system identifies a subset of placed horses which are more likely to win, then the number of 2nds and 3rds will fall.Two examples: one of each type.OP's system identifies horses which run faster than other horses. ThSun, 03 Aug 2025 06:00:05 -0500I can't help with my maths can i, should have been 21 years!https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31881041/thought-experiment?post_id=564896515#564896515I can't help with my maths can i, should have been 21 years!Sun, 03 Aug 2025 05:31:43 -0500The forum has been waiting 24 years for this, Oh Blobby. How do we get this so lucrative system, don't worry yourself about the places imo.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31881041/thought-experiment?post_id=564896505#564896505The forum has been waiting 24 years for this, Oh Blobby. How do we get this so lucrative system, don't worry yourself about the places imo.Sun, 03 Aug 2025 05:27:16 -0500Interesting blobb.Might there not be some scope here for e/w or place betting.Just a thought.Assuming that enough get placed that is.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31881041/thought-experiment?post_id=564896485#564896485Interesting blobb.Might there not be some scope here for e/w or place betting.Just a thought.Assuming that enough get placed that is.Sun, 03 Aug 2025 05:12:03 -0500I'm not one of 'his mates' but for what it's worth, in the breakdown at the bottom of the image he/she can compare the 'Win%' column with the 'Plc%(BF) column...https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31881041/thought-experiment?post_id=564896381#564896381I'm not one of 'his mates' but for what it's worth, in the breakdown at the bottom of the image he/she can compare the 'Win%' column with the 'Plc%(BF) column...Sun, 03 Aug 2025 04:04:13 -0500anywayask ChatGPt or one of his mateshttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31881041/thought-experiment?post_id=564896343#564896343anywayask ChatGPt or one of his matesSun, 03 Aug 2025 03:16:45 -0500This is a sharp question, and it touches on some subtle statistical dynamics of betting systems and selection biases. Quick Summary (TL;DR): If your system identifies better-than-average 10-1 shots, then yes, your second- and third-place percentageshttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31881041/thought-experiment?post_id=564896341#564896341This is a sharp question, and it touches on some subtle statistical dynamics of betting systems and selection biases. Quick Summary (TL;DR): If your system identifies better-than-average 10-1 shots, then yes, your second- and third-place percentagesSun, 03 Aug 2025 03:16:05 -0500Betfair doesn't like ithttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31881041/thought-experiment?post_id=564896339#564896339Betfair doesn't like itSun, 03 Aug 2025 03:13:15 -0500RegThis is a sharp question, and it touches on some subtle statistical dynamics of betting systems and selection biases. Quick Summary (TL;DR): If your system identifies better-than-average 10-1 shots, then yes, your second- and third-place percentahttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31881041/thought-experiment?post_id=564896337#564896337RegThis is a sharp question, and it touches on some subtle statistical dynamics of betting systems and selection biases. Quick Summary (TL;DR): If your system identifies better-than-average 10-1 shots, then yes, your second- and third-place percentaSun, 03 Aug 2025 03:12:55 -0500Well that helped, leif!https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31881041/thought-experiment?post_id=564896335#564896335Well that helped, leif!Sun, 03 Aug 2025 03:11:48 -0500