New Posts For Thread: I read an article about Wisdom of Crowds and EMH and betting on horseshttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31867153/i-read-an-article-about-wisdom-of-crowds-and-emh-and-betting-on-horsesThe gist was that you cannot win in the long run by backing at BSP (or ISP obv). The only way is to take advantage of early overnight or morning prices.usually most profitable is to go against the crowdaye,gets it reet sometimes/most but always overbetalways value not follow the sheephttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31867153/i-read-an-article-about-wisdom-of-crowds-and-emh-and-betting-on-horses?post_id=564567685#564567685usually most profitable is to go against the crowdaye,gets it reet sometimes/most but always overbetalways value not follow the sheepMon, 24 Feb 2025 10:04:09 -0600I should add that was for a level £1 stake win only. (The vast majority of his selections are ew.)Here are the figures for 2023 and 2024.£1 win adv price +£79.80£1 win BSP +£126.34£1 place BSP +£133.31https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31867153/i-read-an-article-about-wisdom-of-crowds-and-emh-and-betting-on-horses?post_id=564567575#564567575I should add that was for a level £1 stake win only. (The vast majority of his selections are ew.)Here are the figures for 2023 and 2024.£1 win adv price +£79.80£1 win BSP +£126.34£1 place BSP +£133.31Mon, 24 Feb 2025 09:24:23 -0600Of course, one person who completely disproves the theory is George B whose threads make a profit at BSP.In fact, for 2023 and 2024 combined, he won more at BSP than at his advised prices.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31867153/i-read-an-article-about-wisdom-of-crowds-and-emh-and-betting-on-horses?post_id=564567527#564567527Of course, one person who completely disproves the theory is George B whose threads make a profit at BSP.In fact, for 2023 and 2024 combined, he won more at BSP than at his advised prices.Mon, 24 Feb 2025 09:05:12 -0600Don't think there's such a thing as "wisdom of crowds", most crowds can turn into an ugly mob, look at the riots last year, the wisdom is in going against the crowd imo.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31867153/i-read-an-article-about-wisdom-of-crowds-and-emh-and-betting-on-horses?post_id=564567459#564567459Don't think there's such a thing as "wisdom of crowds", most crowds can turn into an ugly mob, look at the riots last year, the wisdom is in going against the crowd imo.Mon, 24 Feb 2025 08:39:29 -0600I have a record of all my bets where I record the price I got and the BSP of the horse.If I had backed all my 9328 bets so far at BSP, I would have an expected an £19,000 loss, -1.38% on turnover.If we take commission out of it, then even with the ehttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31867153/i-read-an-article-about-wisdom-of-crowds-and-emh-and-betting-on-horses?post_id=564567419#564567419I have a record of all my bets where I record the price I got and the BSP of the horse.If I had backed all my 9328 bets so far at BSP, I would have an expected an £19,000 loss, -1.38% on turnover.If we take commission out of it, then even with the eMon, 24 Feb 2025 08:24:23 -0600If that where true then it would be saying that only horses that get gambled inwards win horse races.And if it stayed the same or drifted it cant win, Both these statments are nonsense ofcourse.I would guess that most of the 2% of winners or thats whttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31867153/i-read-an-article-about-wisdom-of-crowds-and-emh-and-betting-on-horses?post_id=564567277#564567277If that where true then it would be saying that only horses that get gambled inwards win horse races.And if it stayed the same or drifted it cant win, Both these statments are nonsense ofcourse.I would guess that most of the 2% of winners or thats wMon, 24 Feb 2025 06:59:31 -0600Not an endorsement, in any way, of the EMH.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31867153/i-read-an-article-about-wisdom-of-crowds-and-emh-and-betting-on-horses?post_id=564565829#564565829Not an endorsement, in any way, of the EMH.Sun, 23 Feb 2025 07:33:57 -0600There are 3 forms within the EMH. Horse racing markets would reflect the weak form, hence allowing the possibility of beating the market.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31867153/i-read-an-article-about-wisdom-of-crowds-and-emh-and-betting-on-horses?post_id=564565825#564565825There are 3 forms within the EMH. Horse racing markets would reflect the weak form, hence allowing the possibility of beating the market.Sun, 23 Feb 2025 07:33:18 -0600Look at some of the people that have won elections, that would make me dispute the wisdom of crowds.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31867153/i-read-an-article-about-wisdom-of-crowds-and-emh-and-betting-on-horses?post_id=564565425#564565425Look at some of the people that have won elections, that would make me dispute the wisdom of crowds.Sun, 23 Feb 2025 02:09:17 -0600EMH in all its forms discredited many years ago by David Dreman, et al. It's a pile of nonsense.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31867153/i-read-an-article-about-wisdom-of-crowds-and-emh-and-betting-on-horses?post_id=564565395#564565395EMH in all its forms discredited many years ago by David Dreman, et al. It's a pile of nonsense.Sun, 23 Feb 2025 01:19:38 -0600