New Posts For Thread: why does your £2 bet on a 16/1 shot winhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31853119/why-does-your-2-bet-on-a-161-shot-winand your £20 bet on a 2/1 shot lose?oh if only someone could make a calculator for steerforth!in seriousness, the problem with kelly is that, in order to make it function optimally, you need to know the bets chance of success, which isn't readily available for most. So assuming an edgehttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31853119/why-does-your-2-bet-on-a-161-shot-win?post_id=564262917#564262917oh if only someone could make a calculator for steerforth!in seriousness, the problem with kelly is that, in order to make it function optimally, you need to know the bets chance of success, which isn't readily available for most. So assuming an edgeWed, 11 Sep 2024 12:16:54 -0500"People are overcomplicating it" he says - so just do this, ​Kelly %=W−[R(1−W)​]where:Kelly %=​ Percent of investor’s capital to put into a single trade​ W=Historical win percentage of trading system R=Trader’s historical win/loss rathttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31853119/why-does-your-2-bet-on-a-161-shot-win?post_id=564262895#564262895"People are overcomplicating it" he says - so just do this, ​Kelly %=W−[R(1−W)​]where:Kelly %=​ Percent of investor’s capital to put into a single trade​ W=Historical win percentage of trading system R=Trader’s historical win/loss ratWed, 11 Sep 2024 12:04:25 -0500I think the best way is to have a cwertain minimum bet level, mine is a pony. This level should be high enough to mean something to you if it loses. This will make sure that you put in the study required and dont bet aimlessly. If I go racing, usuallhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31853119/why-does-your-2-bet-on-a-161-shot-win?post_id=564262575#564262575I think the best way is to have a cwertain minimum bet level, mine is a pony. This level should be high enough to mean something to you if it loses. This will make sure that you put in the study required and dont bet aimlessly. If I go racing, usuallWed, 11 Sep 2024 09:58:05 -0500People are overcomplicating it. Just bet according to the kelly criterion. Nothing wrong with betting bigger on odds on shots.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31853119/why-does-your-2-bet-on-a-161-shot-win?post_id=564262573#564262573People are overcomplicating it. Just bet according to the kelly criterion. Nothing wrong with betting bigger on odds on shots.Wed, 11 Sep 2024 09:56:37 -0500Level staking takes out an added layer of uncertainty. You still need to assess if the price offered makes a bet worthwhile but once the answer is yes, a bet is a bet is a bet, Just let the prices do the work once you've decided to play and leave thehttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31853119/why-does-your-2-bet-on-a-161-shot-win?post_id=564262383#564262383Level staking takes out an added layer of uncertainty. You still need to assess if the price offered makes a bet worthwhile but once the answer is yes, a bet is a bet is a bet, Just let the prices do the work once you've decided to play and leave theWed, 11 Sep 2024 08:46:37 -0500I manage both (just) but my level stakes are tiny.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31853119/why-does-your-2-bet-on-a-161-shot-win?post_id=564262049#564262049I manage both (just) but my level stakes are tiny.Wed, 11 Sep 2024 05:23:01 -0500It's amazing how many punters turn a level stakes profit, yet how few punters actually bet to level stakes.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31853119/why-does-your-2-bet-on-a-161-shot-win?post_id=564261955#564261955It's amazing how many punters turn a level stakes profit, yet how few punters actually bet to level stakes.Wed, 11 Sep 2024 04:15:51 -0500that needs deep pockets and strong nerves though.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31853119/why-does-your-2-bet-on-a-161-shot-win?post_id=564261887#564261887that needs deep pockets and strong nerves though.Wed, 11 Sep 2024 03:14:38 -0500I remember reading a book years ago (think it was called Braddocks?) people smarter than me will correct me but I belive the suggestion was the bigger the price the larger the bet.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31853119/why-does-your-2-bet-on-a-161-shot-win?post_id=564261859#564261859I remember reading a book years ago (think it was called Braddocks?) people smarter than me will correct me but I belive the suggestion was the bigger the price the larger the bet.Wed, 11 Sep 2024 02:55:53 -0500Still learning, I think what's being suggested is that the price is influencing how much you stake, rather than your own perception of it's chancesOn the other hand, it may be that you stake according to wanting to win a certain amount... IE 20 quidhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31853119/why-does-your-2-bet-on-a-161-shot-win?post_id=564261815#564261815Still learning, I think what's being suggested is that the price is influencing how much you stake, rather than your own perception of it's chancesOn the other hand, it may be that you stake according to wanting to win a certain amount... IE 20 quidWed, 11 Sep 2024 01:27:46 -0500