New Posts For Thread: Lay progressions are cheatinghttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31804393/lay-progressions-are-cheatingThere's this fav laying service with a 39pt profit to flat stakes in 2.5 years but with stake recovery it has made 541 pts profit. Even when the flat stakes profit was -7pts, the profit with progressions was around 400. So unless you're an absolute mOk if you hit 60% you have a 2.5% chance of losing 4 in a row. So you will have 39 succesful progressions then lose 28pts.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31804393/lay-progressions-are-cheating?post_id=563186301#563186301Ok if you hit 60% you have a 2.5% chance of losing 4 in a row. So you will have 39 succesful progressions then lose 28pts.Thu, 01 Jun 2023 08:40:01 -0500Gaze, if you have a 70% hit ratde on 60% chances, how do you manage to lose to level stakes, yet win to your staking plan?https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31804393/lay-progressions-are-cheating?post_id=563186141#563186141Gaze, if you have a 70% hit ratde on 60% chances, how do you manage to lose to level stakes, yet win to your staking plan?Thu, 01 Jun 2023 07:57:36 -0500you guys should try the Warren Buffett system.someone said to him when he was 30 years old"YOUR CRAZY WARREN ,IT WILL NEVER WORK,YOU CAN NOT WIN IF YOU GAMBLE"https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31804393/lay-progressions-are-cheating?post_id=563186039#563186039you guys should try the Warren Buffett system.someone said to him when he was 30 years old"YOUR CRAZY WARREN ,IT WILL NEVER WORK,YOU CAN NOT WIN IF YOU GAMBLE"Thu, 01 Jun 2023 07:29:13 -0500longbridge 70% is easy at 2.5, you just have to know which ones are certs.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31804393/lay-progressions-are-cheating?post_id=563185815#563185815longbridge 70% is easy at 2.5, you just have to know which ones are certs.Thu, 01 Jun 2023 06:41:19 -0500So if someone makes 400pts after 2 years instead of -7pts to flat stakes, you'll tell him his strategy doesn't work and that he should quit?https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31804393/lay-progressions-are-cheating?post_id=563185811#563185811So if someone makes 400pts after 2 years instead of -7pts to flat stakes, you'll tell him his strategy doesn't work and that he should quit?Thu, 01 Jun 2023 06:39:21 -0500Mark Labbett feels threatened as top chaser.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31804393/lay-progressions-are-cheating?post_id=563185777#563185777Mark Labbett feels threatened as top chaser.Thu, 01 Jun 2023 06:28:10 -0500HAVE YOU EVER CAME ACROSS MISTER MARTIN GALEA VERY RICH MANhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31804393/lay-progressions-are-cheating?post_id=563185761#563185761HAVE YOU EVER CAME ACROSS MISTER MARTIN GALEA VERY RICH MANThu, 01 Jun 2023 06:24:01 -0500Gaze, that's just Martingale surely? Just adjusted to account for you having a 70% strike rate on bets with a 60% implied probability?https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31804393/lay-progressions-are-cheating?post_id=563185759#563185759Gaze, that's just Martingale surely? Just adjusted to account for you having a 70% strike rate on bets with a 60% implied probability?Thu, 01 Jun 2023 06:23:25 -0500If you can't lay a losing fav in 20 days, you might as well back your lay selections.If you're at least a break-even layer, progressions make much more profits. Let's say you lay 4 favs at 6/4, BSP 2.5. The first 3 favs win. You lose -1.5, -3.0, -6.7https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31804393/lay-progressions-are-cheating?post_id=563185743#563185743If you can't lay a losing fav in 20 days, you might as well back your lay selections.If you're at least a break-even layer, progressions make much more profits. Let's say you lay 4 favs at 6/4, BSP 2.5. The first 3 favs win. You lose -1.5, -3.0, -6.7Thu, 01 Jun 2023 06:16:06 -0500Go on then Gaze -how does "stake recovery work"?Suppose I start on day 1 with a 1 pt bet that loses How much do I stake on day 2 on a 2/1 shot? Suppose that by day 20 I've not had a winner and I'm 50 points down. How much goes on a 3s on shot?https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31804393/lay-progressions-are-cheating?post_id=563185439#563185439Go on then Gaze -how does "stake recovery work"?Suppose I start on day 1 with a 1 pt bet that loses How much do I stake on day 2 on a 2/1 shot? Suppose that by day 20 I've not had a winner and I'm 50 points down. How much goes on a 3s on shot?Thu, 01 Jun 2023 02:59:22 -0500