New Posts For Thread: Probability Poserhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31799883/probability-poserIt's Play Your Cards Right.If the contestant can successfully make five high-low predictions in a row, they'll win £80.The player manages to guess the first three turns of the card correctly. On the third turn he gets a tricky 7 of hearts. The firstI didn't see your post jimmy - but spot on - the very worst case scenario is that you are getting offered 7/1 about 2 x very slightly odds-on shots, in a double. The more likely scenario is that you are getting offered 7/1 about a slightly odds-on shhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31799883/probability-poser?post_id=563091807#563091807I didn't see your post jimmy - but spot on - the very worst case scenario is that you are getting offered 7/1 about 2 x very slightly odds-on shots, in a double. The more likely scenario is that you are getting offered 7/1 about a slightly odds-on shThu, 20 Apr 2023 06:36:34 -0500Not just that bluebook. The first of the two "guesses" is a bit daunting and not that far off a coin-flip - but even assuming it's an even-money poke (to a lay-man with no betting/maths knowledge), there is a very good chance that if guessing the firhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31799883/probability-poser?post_id=563091781#563091781Not just that bluebook. The first of the two "guesses" is a bit daunting and not that far off a coin-flip - but even assuming it's an even-money poke (to a lay-man with no betting/maths knowledge), there is a very good chance that if guessing the firThu, 20 Apr 2023 06:32:02 -0500A lot of non-mathematical misunderstanding here. It is a simple maths problem. Since 3 cards of 7 or higher are showing there are 24 cards less than a 7 and 25 cards higher or equal to a 7 left. Approximately evens. If you do guess correctly you havehttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31799883/probability-poser?post_id=563091749#563091749A lot of non-mathematical misunderstanding here. It is a simple maths problem. Since 3 cards of 7 or higher are showing there are 24 cards less than a 7 and 25 cards higher or equal to a 7 left. Approximately evens. If you do guess correctly you haveThu, 20 Apr 2023 06:17:15 -0500You're absolutely right, The Management, but I'm simply repeating the problem as I found it. No mention was made of the first card, nor what would happen if a pair turned up. The game was being played by somebody from the winning team at the end of ahttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31799883/probability-poser?post_id=563091731#563091731You're absolutely right, The Management, but I'm simply repeating the problem as I found it. No mention was made of the first card, nor what would happen if a pair turned up. The game was being played by somebody from the winning team at the end of aThu, 20 Apr 2023 06:12:12 -0500In the TV game if the card turned over matched, you lost (nothing for a pair - not in this game!) and the other couple usually ran away with the game through a very kind sequence of card.I'll say it one final time! - you haven't provided enough inforhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31799883/probability-poser?post_id=563091559#563091559In the TV game if the card turned over matched, you lost (nothing for a pair - not in this game!) and the other couple usually ran away with the game through a very kind sequence of card.I'll say it one final time! - you haven't provided enough inforThu, 20 Apr 2023 04:45:21 -0500Wasn't it the case that in the tv series, if the card turned over was the same as the previous one, you simply guessed again ? Been so long since I saw an episode. Obviously, going low or high and getting a 2 or an Ace respectively guarantees a winhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31799883/probability-poser?post_id=563091423#563091423Wasn't it the case that in the tv series, if the card turned over was the same as the previous one, you simply guessed again ? Been so long since I saw an episode. Obviously, going low or high and getting a 2 or an Ace respectively guarantees a winThu, 20 Apr 2023 03:26:48 -0500You also need to factor in that the next card could match or the last card could too & on top of that if the next is correct & is an Ace (presuming this is a high card) or a 2 & (then unless a matching card is the final one turned) then this is a nohttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31799883/probability-poser?post_id=563091103#563091103You also need to factor in that the next card could match or the last card could too & on top of that if the next is correct & is an Ace (presuming this is a high card) or a 2 & (then unless a matching card is the final one turned) then this is a noWed, 19 Apr 2023 17:27:02 -0500on my rough calcs, it could only be 3-1 if ace was low.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31799883/probability-poser?post_id=563091021#563091021on my rough calcs, it could only be 3-1 if ace was low.Wed, 19 Apr 2023 16:12:10 -0500Turns out 2/1 was a typo ; should've read 3/1. But, still interesting how the choice whether to go on, or not, doesn't necessarily have much to do with the cards already seen, it seems.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31799883/probability-poser?post_id=563090853#563090853Turns out 2/1 was a typo ; should've read 3/1. But, still interesting how the choice whether to go on, or not, doesn't necessarily have much to do with the cards already seen, it seems.Wed, 19 Apr 2023 15:16:36 -0500ok I see why it is 2-1. If he goes high and wins, the card must be 8 to ace, with approx probability of 1/13 for each. Assuming he then goes low you then take all those 1/13 and work our the p of winning. So Ace would would be 1/13 x 12/13 (approx -https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31799883/probability-poser?post_id=563090753#563090753ok I see why it is 2-1. If he goes high and wins, the card must be 8 to ace, with approx probability of 1/13 for each. Assuming he then goes low you then take all those 1/13 and work our the p of winning. So Ace would would be 1/13 x 12/13 (approx -Wed, 19 Apr 2023 14:31:42 -0500