New Posts For Thread: Lay Math Helphttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31734011/lay-math-helpJust looking for some help here with assessing a betting strategy.Sample size of 5,000 bets.Punter winning at 10.5%Fixed bookie odds only (no exchange bets)Am I able to flip the bets, and LAY at any time the fixed odds reduce by greater than 10.5%?I.Luke do abit of homework.Go back through the Form, and identify those horses that tend to go to the front early.Then back these at fixed odds, and lay them back early in the race.A more simple strategy than what you’re proposing, in my simple opinihttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31734011/lay-math-help?post_id=561612121#561612121Luke do abit of homework.Go back through the Form, and identify those horses that tend to go to the front early.Then back these at fixed odds, and lay them back early in the race.A more simple strategy than what you’re proposing, in my simple opiniWed, 10 Nov 2021 08:16:35 -0600Impossible not to make money* based on what you said.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31734011/lay-math-help?post_id=561611997#561611997Impossible not to make money* based on what you said.Wed, 10 Nov 2021 07:30:21 -0600@Luke, this sounds really positive based on what you have said.Feedback on how you go, sounds good.PS if you are sure your sample size is big enough, and the figure is indeed 10% try to take emotion and personal judgement out as much as you can imo,https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31734011/lay-math-help?post_id=561611993#561611993@Luke, this sounds really positive based on what you have said.Feedback on how you go, sounds good.PS if you are sure your sample size is big enough, and the figure is indeed 10% try to take emotion and personal judgement out as much as you can imo,Wed, 10 Nov 2021 07:29:55 -0600undertaker.we will clean up on hot saturday afternoons, when the 'golden gargle' is flowing at the racetrackhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31734011/lay-math-help?post_id=561611935#561611935undertaker.we will clean up on hot saturday afternoons, when the 'golden gargle' is flowing at the racetrackWed, 10 Nov 2021 07:01:30 -0600Wicked Willy and Get On The Yager were 2 other examples of horses to lay on Celtic's "drunken punters" laying system. Both horses usually got very well backed just before the off.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31734011/lay-math-help?post_id=561611479#561611479Wicked Willy and Get On The Yager were 2 other examples of horses to lay on Celtic's "drunken punters" laying system. Both horses usually got very well backed just before the off.Wed, 10 Nov 2021 00:42:55 -0600Hi @itsmeswaddleRe: "If he is making money taking 7/1 fixed, you have to approximately laying no more than 6.2/1 just to break even?"Yes that's fine, understood and agreed on that point.On my small sample size, his bets have been shortening by on avehttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31734011/lay-math-help?post_id=561611161#561611161Hi @itsmeswaddleRe: "If he is making money taking 7/1 fixed, you have to approximately laying no more than 6.2/1 just to break even?"Yes that's fine, understood and agreed on that point.On my small sample size, his bets have been shortening by on aveTue, 09 Nov 2021 16:11:58 -0600also there is a legendary horse called YOURHOLIDAYISOVER. Lay him in running with half a mile to go. this is a CERTAIN winning systemhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31734011/lay-math-help?post_id=561609849#561609849also there is a legendary horse called YOURHOLIDAYISOVER. Lay him in running with half a mile to go. this is a CERTAIN winning systemTue, 09 Nov 2021 07:56:06 -0600Luke,matt is totally correct here. laying on betfair involves a significantly higher price, especially at higher odds, as this is where the bookmakers increase their margin due to most punters wanting to back the favorites. I think the only profitablhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31734011/lay-math-help?post_id=561609845#561609845Luke,matt is totally correct here. laying on betfair involves a significantly higher price, especially at higher odds, as this is where the bookmakers increase their margin due to most punters wanting to back the favorites. I think the only profitablTue, 09 Nov 2021 07:54:53 -0600No problems about the reply, hope it doesnt put you off.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31734011/lay-math-help?post_id=561609673#561609673No problems about the reply, hope it doesnt put you off.Tue, 09 Nov 2021 07:04:58 -0600I was basically trying to create an example that you CANT lay the fixed odds the original punter is taking to make his money?If you can lay because your are on on course book or whatever then great, or I have the wrong end of the stick then fair enouhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31734011/lay-math-help?post_id=561609671#561609671I was basically trying to create an example that you CANT lay the fixed odds the original punter is taking to make his money?If you can lay because your are on on course book or whatever then great, or I have the wrong end of the stick then fair enouTue, 09 Nov 2021 07:04:42 -0600