New Posts For Thread: Is 'forgiveness' the key to good punting?https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30730599/is-forgiveness-the-key-to-good-puntingIn the current Weekender puts forward the idea that we can make money out of forgiving horses who 'flop' . He adds that the examples he is thinking of were backed late on when they did win. But that's difficult to study so what I am trying to establiNot many can know where trainers are exactly with their horses, some reasons given below.Training cycles, currently working a mark, horses well thought off that disappoint or improving horses continue to defy the handicapper.How on earth are we to cohttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30730599/is-forgiveness-the-key-to-good-punting?post_id=549876523#549876523Not many can know where trainers are exactly with their horses, some reasons given below.Training cycles, currently working a mark, horses well thought off that disappoint or improving horses continue to defy the handicapper.How on earth are we to coThu, 08 Sep 2016 11:38:14 -0500Jeeez, no wonder the vast majority of you people lose in the long run, what nonsense this thread actually is, beggars belief.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30730599/is-forgiveness-the-key-to-good-punting?post_id=549876437#549876437Jeeez, no wonder the vast majority of you people lose in the long run, what nonsense this thread actually is, beggars belief.Thu, 08 Sep 2016 11:24:38 -0500I have logged 12 failures to reach the first 4 n.t.o for the sample. Further results to follow as the horses come out again.V.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30730599/is-forgiveness-the-key-to-good-punting?post_id=549873695#549873695I have logged 12 failures to reach the first 4 n.t.o for the sample. Further results to follow as the horses come out again.V.Thu, 08 Sep 2016 02:10:44 -0500All for forgiving a horse a bad run if there is a logical reason to do so. A logical reason wouldn't simply be that it is trained by Mark Johnston. His horses just defy any punting rules.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30730599/is-forgiveness-the-key-to-good-punting?post_id=549851673#549851673All for forgiving a horse a bad run if there is a logical reason to do so. A logical reason wouldn't simply be that it is trained by Mark Johnston. His horses just defy any punting rules.Sun, 04 Sep 2016 18:44:37 -0500@tunnocks -- the point is that form holds up most of the time.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30730599/is-forgiveness-the-key-to-good-punting?post_id=549849077#549849077@tunnocks -- the point is that form holds up most of the time.Sun, 04 Sep 2016 14:57:58 -0500The opposite is also true, imo. Especially at the top end, pundits and even the official handicapper sometimes get carried away with an impressive performance, and you need to downgrade it a bit.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30730599/is-forgiveness-the-key-to-good-punting?post_id=549849035#549849035The opposite is also true, imo. Especially at the top end, pundits and even the official handicapper sometimes get carried away with an impressive performance, and you need to downgrade it a bit.Sun, 04 Sep 2016 14:55:16 -0500@Ramruna...How many races are won by the form horse? About a third of races are won by the favourite. Timeform say more than half are won by one of their top two rated. So betting favourites you lose 66% of the time. So we should be lumping on Timefohttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30730599/is-forgiveness-the-key-to-good-punting?post_id=549848247#549848247@Ramruna...How many races are won by the form horse? About a third of races are won by the favourite. Timeform say more than half are won by one of their top two rated. So betting favourites you lose 66% of the time. So we should be lumping on TimefoSun, 04 Sep 2016 14:05:40 -0500To put the OP's OPENING post into a little more perspective,It refers to Tom Segal's column in this week's Weekender - - the column, and consequent rationale, has been stimulated by, and highlights, the number of MARK JOHNSTON's horses winning, nexhttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30730599/is-forgiveness-the-key-to-good-punting?post_id=549845699#549845699To put the OP's OPENING post into a little more perspective,It refers to Tom Segal's column in this week's Weekender - - the column, and consequent rationale, has been stimulated by, and highlights, the number of MARK JOHNSTON's horses winning, nexSun, 04 Sep 2016 11:39:50 -0500duncan - Mecca's was just ONE run in a string of exceptional outings.'Following them over a cliff' - refers to backing them, Again, and again, and again - by keep 'Forgiving' them ... as, I am sure, you well know.https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30730599/is-forgiveness-the-key-to-good-punting?post_id=549844927#549844927duncan - Mecca's was just ONE run in a string of exceptional outings.'Following them over a cliff' - refers to backing them, Again, and again, and again - by keep 'Forgiving' them ... as, I am sure, you well know.Sun, 04 Sep 2016 11:01:25 -0500cheers dave...not possible to look at 'fin in last 4' on my database...in general, they are not machines and overlooking a bad run is often a good way to obtaining value, though there is obv judgement involved in deciding which horses are worth persehttps://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30730599/is-forgiveness-the-key-to-good-punting?post_id=549844825#549844825cheers dave...not possible to look at 'fin in last 4' on my database...in general, they are not machines and overlooking a bad run is often a good way to obtaining value, though there is obv judgement involved in deciding which horses are worth perseSun, 04 Sep 2016 10:54:23 -0500