2024 1000 Guineas Newmarket

The outcome of the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes on Sunday is sure to have a major impact on the 1000 Guineas market. Latest betting (best prices): Evs Ylang Ylang, 6 Vespertilio, 7 Porta Fortuna, 8 Fallen Angel, Red Viburnum, 10 Opera Singer, 16 bar.
I'm sitting on the fence on this one, as several of these impressed last time out, but the suspicion remains that Ylang Ylang could be something special.

Porta Fortuna definitely underpriced, after four runs the level she's shown so far is well below Fallen Angel and Opera Singer.

Howellsy 29 Aug 23 17:34 Joined: 17 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 1,112 | Blogger: Howellsy's blog
It's rare for such a 6f specialist to be able to stretch out to the Guineas mile isn't it. I suppose you could say Justify is unexposed as a stallion.


It isn’t completely rare, all these had only run at sprint trips as a juvenile since 2003 and won the classic, agreed there aren’t many, it isn’t rare though. Mawj proves sprinting as a juvenile isn’t all bad when trying to find the guineas winner and of course these other winners striking at 25% in the last 20 years when sprinting as a juvenile.

Russian rhythm
Attraction
Natagora
Special duty
Mawj

Depends on you use those statistics.

You could say, Mawj was the first horse in 13 runnings to win the Guineas having been kept exclusively to sprint trips as a juvenile.

Or

Your 5 winners in 28 running of the Guineas.

* 27 runnings *

I don’t use stats brandy.
Just proving the point that it isn’t rare. I could say between 2003 and 2010 they were running at 50 percent strike rate if I really wanted to hang my hat on the stats!!!

brandyontherocks 07 Sep 23 16:38 Joined: 04 Dec 06 | Topic/replies: 1,778 | Blogger: brandyontherocks's blog
* 27 runnings *


2003 and 2023 is 20 runnings brandy if my maths is any good

But it is 5 winners in 21 runnings or 5 winners in 27 runnings.

2003-2023 is 21 runnings

Anyone got the 200 year stats!?

The stats about fillies that haven't raced beyond 6f at two are part of the picture, but not the whole picture. Any juvenile filly that shows good acceleration to win a Gr.1 or Gr.2 race over 6f in the style of a filly that should appreciate at least 7f (i.e. quickened, ran on well, kept on well), and has a pedigree to match, needs to be given serious consideration for the Guineas. A lot of the smarter 6f fillies at two are speedy types with speedy pedigrees that don't show much stamina potential in their races.
Overall stats about Guineas winners also need to take account of fillies that arguably should have won the Guineas but were narrowly beaten: Tahiyra this year immediately springs to mind (Gr.1 winner at two over 7f, Guineas came too soon for her, beaten half a length by a 6f juvenile), and there are other examples too such as Marling in 1992, beaten a head in the Guineas by Hatoof (8f performer at two) after not getting a clear run (Marling won the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes at two, ran on well).
I'm still not sure about Ramatuelle: as Figgis confirmed, she's already good enough to win a Guineas, but stamina is still a big question mark. She gets 6f really well and has a great turn of foot, but I'd like to see her run once more this season.

Ylang Ylang is on show tomorrow. The only surprise is her price - a generous 'even' money; 2nd fav is Vespertilio beaten cosily last time by Ylang Ylang.

Are you with her so impossible ? King Midas and best jockey in the world. What can go wrong ? Wonder will the xbookie be laying her after Tahiyra and his very best bet of day at Thirsk.

Is he the best jockey in the world?

I like her for this race. I hope she can win tomorrow too.

Vespertilio took a big step forward last time and her win in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes is on a par with Ylang Ylang's win in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes. Obviously Vespertilio needs to reverse the Silver Flash form, and the lightly raced Ylang Ylang is likely to have made significant improvement, but it's no walkover. On ratings there's very little between the front four in the betting. A race to watch rather than invest in. Looking further ahead, Ylang Ylang should be best at 10f+ next season and it remains to be seen whether she has enough speed to win a Guineas.

Strictly on ratings I have Fallen Angel just 1lb ahead of Vespertilio, with Ylang Ylang a further 5lbs behind. However, my feeling was that Ylang Ylang was probably capable of more than the bare form and could take another step forward, as Vespertilio did last time. I could make a case for Fallen Angel being value, but this race is usually won by a better performance than any of them have shown so far. It's all about who goes forward and which fillies have already reached their limit, so just a race to watch, for me.

Slightly off topic, but I was pleased to note that Victoria Head has just had her first juvenile winner as a trainer: Hit It won the Prix Ravinella at Saint-Cloud by a couple of lengths and looks quite useful. Victoria is the latest to join the training ranks from the Head dynasty at Chantilly: she's daughter of Freddy, niece of Criquette, brother of Christopher.

I don't know what happened to Ylang Ylang in the Moyglare, but something was clearly amiss (finished last). Fallen Angel got first run and Vespertilio's smart turn of foot wasn't enough to reel in the winner, who ran on very well. They're both really smart fillies and it will be interesting to see the revised Guineas odds.

Fallen Angel, who will get a mile without any trouble (she's by top miler Too Darn Hot out of a May Hill Stakes winner who was bred to stay well), looks a genuine Guineas contender now. She's into 10/1 (generally 8/1) for the Guineas, in a wide open market. It makes you wonder how good Shuwari might turn out to be: Shuwari beat Fallen Angel at Sandown (her only defeat in four starts).

Wnr gen' 8/1 & 2nd 10-12/1.

In my view that was a Guineas winning performance, a few pounds better than last year's Moyglare. On par with Ramatuelle's best performance, but I'd have to prefer Fallen Angel's prospects as she looks nailed on to get a mile. Now it's all about keeping her sound and getting her back to this level next spring. If she were mine I'd be putting her away for the season.

I backed Vespertilio today.To me the wnr won that well.
Further they went the bigger the margin.

Yep, she's nailed on to get the mile, she's good enough to win a Guineas, and she's won on good to firm, good, and good to yielding. I'll forgive her the narrow defeat by Shuwari (who's bred for middle distances) at Sandown on much softer ground. 10/1 looks a fair price for the Guineas and that's my sole bet for the race at this stage.

I'd agree Fallen Angel outstayed Vespertilio and probably better suited over 8f than the former. What happened to the hotpot Ylang Ylang? She ran no race. The winner is 11/4 for the Fillies Mile; Ylang Ylang is 7/1, but 25/1 for this race.

She looks overpriced at 11/4 for the Fillies' Mile. She goes there next, "barring accidents", according to Karl Burke.

Oh dear

I seem to be in agreement with James and Figgis.

What odds would Ylang Ylang be if she had won like Fallen Angel had done? No more than 3/1 and probably shorter than that. Yet Fallen Angel is still 10s with the Magicswine.

I am not sure the second third or fourth all ran up to their best but the race had most of the solid 2yo form reflected in the runners and the winner won cosily enough and again like Sandown seemed to run like she needs further.

At this stage I would have Fallen Angel at a very conservative guesstimate of 112p. The P is for extra improvement as she looks likely to be better over a mile.

Mawj and Tahiyra are 118 rated fillies so Fallen Angel has not got to improve all that much to be a serious contender.

Fallen Angel has not got to improve all that much to be a serious contender

I'd say it's likely she doesn't need to improve whatsoever, just return at the same level.

Or to put it in better perspective, of the last 10 Guineas winners I have only Minding and Love running above Fallen Angel's current level. There's still time for something of their calibre to appear later this season, but the odds are against it.

On a line with Vespertilio the running of Ylang Ylang was too bad to be true. Any further news from her trainer on her Moyglare performance? 25/1 is too tempting to forego if she merely had an off day.

25/1 looks like an overreaction. She clearly hasn't shown her true form.

^^ Indeed. Have we seen all the potential goodies for this race? The only one that's not been seen for a while is Matrika; she seems to be doing a Statuette.

I'll give Ylang Ylang another chance until post Fillies Mile, assuming she's ok post The Moyglare yesterday and Newmarket bound next month.

Tom Segal warns readers not to rule out a Lazarus-like recovery from Ylang Ylang following her as yet unexplained poor performance in the Moyglare:
https://www.racingpost.com/news/opinion/comment/auguste-rodin-performed-a-lazarus-like-recovery-at-leopardstown-heres-another-you-shouldnt-write-off-aJ1pY1w5e3Cq/

Timeform have Fallen Angel on 110p, just one pound below Ramatuelle.

Of course it would be ridiculous to write off Ylang Ylang after only the three starts and one too bad to be true performance. However, he compares it with Auguste Rodin bouncing back from disappointments. The big difference is AR already proved himself a genuine Gp1 horse when winning the RPT as a 2yo. Ylang Ylang's 2yo form is quite some way short so far. It's true that she beat Vespertilio previously but that filly improved around 10lbs on her next start. I won't be writing off Ylang Ylang but I wouldn't even consider backing her right now.

Well a very fine crowd on the Sunday Curragh Plains. Luckily I drove over but we remained trapped in the car because of that huge downpour. Missing the first. Rain eased so ventured along. Very obvious that there would be a going change. So much water. But I was in no doubt that the two colts were never going to take each other on regardless of weather. I expected the chocolate seller to bear the news of the N/R, at 1.30pm but she was missing, sheltering no doubt. Wise move. In any event the expected news was delivered. But it was 'City' that stood down. Henry delivered as ammo shivered, too scared to make a plan 'B', and let Ryan do the pace-making. Early betting was 11/10 Henry and 9/10 Bucco.These prices soon flip-flopped. Ylang had gone blank at this stage, and I was happy to be on the right in that one 5/1. Big shout to 'Figgis'. August 18th post was embedded in my Moyglare Mind. Interesting that D Tudhope said he knew her final furlong would be her best. It looked an e/w bet to nothing. It was a great days sport and we could easily have seen a 2024 classic winner. Maybe two. May I say in mho it wont be Ylang Blank. Hope all had a good weekend and made lots of money. Great tread again jamesp.

Actually August 19th well played 'Figgis'

JTOTD, thanks but not that well played on my part. I'm not a big e.w backer but this was one that was obviously there to be played that way. Unfortunately, unlike you, I didn't have the sense to do just that and sat the race out instead. Well played you.

I get the feeling 'figgis' that yourself and a few more on this tread have forgotten more about hosses than I can ever know. In not betting e/w you are following Barry Hills golden rule. 'Never bet each way'. was his advice.

Ylang Ylang needs to run again this season - the Rockel Stakes would be the best option - to prove herself a Guineas filly and get back on track. For me, she is not an ante post possibility as she doesn’t handle soft ground which is a possible the way weather patterns are changing

I agree, Ylang Ylang needs to run again either The Rockfel or Fillies' Mile. I'd favour the latter being 2 weeks later. I think the tactic used on Ylang Ylang on very soft going at The Curragh last weekend was too optimistic and wrong. But, Moore looked after her.

Has she been retired yet ?

I do not think that's likely with Ylang Ylang (yet) unless she's deemed not to have trained on post winter; she might miss Newmarket in October if more time to recover from her Moyglare exertion.

On the face of it, One Look was impressive today. However, Cherry Blossom, despite still finishing second, clearly didn't run to her best, and the rest are just nursery types. It could be argued that as it was a debut performance there should be a lot more to come. This would normally be true, but it's obvious that this race was the target, so I wouldn't assume we'll see big improvement. Nothing to trouble an on form Fallen Angel, in my view.

I may have seen a 2yo filly make a more impressive debut than One Look.

Not sure when though.

The ground was yielding to soft and that can exaggerate winning distances, so maybe a little caution might be in order.

But Cherry Blossom would have been a fair winner without One Look in the race and she was beaten a stone. Cherry Blossom seems to have run up t9 form at least, so One Look on her debut has run 115. If you watch it she did look a bit green and she is surely a 120+ filly in the making.

If One Look had been trained by Aiden OB or John Gosden, she would be around 3/1 for the 1000 Guineas.

Last week the trainer entered her for the 1000 Guineas so they clearly have this in mind, and there is every possibility she will show up at HQ in May next year. She is certainly bred to get a mile at least and her pedigree seems to suggest she will be even better suited to faster going.

I think 12/1 is definitely more than a fair price.

COT, take out the winner and Cherry Blossom only beat My Mate Alfie by a neck, with some very ordinary types close up behind. These sales races have big fields, but in most years they contain an awful lot of dross. The time backs up that it was no better than a Gp3 performance by the winner. A good 10lbs behind Fallen Angel, I'd say. Vespertilio has much better form and is a slightly bigger price.

*beat My Mate Alfie by a neck, while in receipt of 5lbs

I think she's run to a literal mark of around 106. It has to go down as a superb debut - redolent of Lush Lashes, who was less impressive but who proved group 1 class after a few hiccups at 3.

I would be in agreement with the comments of figgis. One Look surely be sold. Owned by a syndicate. Mums Tipple comes to mind. Won sales race by 11 lengths and big money turned down. I wouldda sold mums with bridle saddle and jockey if he delayed exiting the plate. Perhaps entering in the 1000gns was very good sales work. Very shrewd business man Mr 2me.

My Mate Alfie lumped 10 stones and got an official rating of 96 when second in a nursery. Seems no reason to think he ran any worse on Saturday when utterly annihilated by One Look. If you only allow her 7lbs for ease of the slaughter she is pretty good.

4th behind the brilliant One Look on Saturday was the filly Storm in Miami who also has an official rating of 96. Presumably this  filly officially rated 96 is one of the “very ordinary ones”.

It is as I say very hard to calculate “easily”. But if you absolutely hack up, cantering all over horses rated 96 or in Cherry Blossom’s case 101 and win by miles, you deserve just a little respect.

If you rate the race against any of the 2nd, 3rd or 4th, you end up with a high figure. If you look at the second, she got beaten a stone. She is rated 101.

If you rate the race against the 4th, and she was beaten about 18 lbs, well add 96 and 18 - that is 114.

That is an amazing figure for a filly’s first ever appearance on a racecourse. Of course it’s hard to know how much the winner had in hand, but if she had been given an inch of rein at the 2 furlong marker, she might have won by 12 lengths instead of the easing up 6.

Comparisons with Mum’s Tipple ignore the fact that he was not making his first appearance like One Look when he won his auction race at York. Nor did he have a group 2 second behind him.

And maybe Coolmore or Godolphin will snap her up. Not sure that would be a bad thing as both organisations understand form better than most.

I like One Look, she looked amazing. She has a fantastic turn of foot. The pace of the race was clearly against her. Her turn of foot would have been far more effective off a faster pace.

She was going very easily but would have been much more impressive had they gone a better pace.

That’s the trouble with speed figures. They tell you how fast a race was run rather than how good the runners were. That’s why old speed figure men like Ken Hussey often added a “class factor” to speed figures as you would often get a group one winner rated 40 on speed figures the same day as a player apparently ran 100!

I think she showed signs of greenness and although she slaughtered them all, she looks sure to have benefitted from the experience. She could be anything.

And, even if Figgis is spot on and the performance is only equivalent to a group 3, just how many 2yo fillies manage a group 3 performance first time out can any of you identify in racing history?

Not many I suspect.

That’s why old speed figure men like Ken Hussey often added a “class factor”

The pace of the race was clearly against her

Personally I didn't see the race as slowly run

COT, as far as I'm concerned Hussey was 'the man' when it comes to speed figures. The class factor, as you call it, was incorporated into the going allowance, as standard times for Grade 1 courses, for instance, will obviously be faster than standard times recorded at Grade 3 tracks. There is no class factor added from race to race.

just how many 2yo fillies manage a group 3 performance first time out

Very few, it was exceptional in that regard. However, there won't be many trained to put up that kind of performance first time out, even if capable. Therefore you have to question if it's beneficial in the long term.

Anyway, One Look may very well develop into a Gp1 performer. I'll leave her progress for others to predict. But the statement so often trotted out in the racing media, 'sure to improve', is more often proved wrong than correct.

110-112 performance to me that run.

Nice answer Figgis, and although she might be a group 1 Filly, she may go on to be less than awesome. Who can tell.

But nice to have a disagreement with civility.

I was a fan of Ken H as well, but more because of his repeated attacks in his articles on the Quality Street Gang  aka BOLA. He was no a big fan of the big bookies and quite rightly too.


And best of luck to you.

The rpr is 106, which is interesting since they usually work on a slightly higher scale than the OR. Let's see what the handicapper does.

I seem to recall that a few juvenile fillies have won at Group 3 or Listed level on racecourse debut, but it's quite a rare occurrence.
Hermana Estrella won the Gr.3 Coolmore Stud Sprint at Naas a couple of years ago, beating subsequent Gr.2 Queen Mary winner Quick Suzy by a length and 5 lengths. She was given an official rating of 106 after that debut win and was next seen down the field in the Irish Guineas and never raced again (presumably she had setbacks and problems).
One has to be impressed by One Look's remarkable winning debut, but I'm inclined to be a bit sceptical for reasons already outlined above. She must have been prepared specially for the race and she was clearly very well suited by the soft ground. The runner-up and fourth evidently failed to get the trip in the ground, and the jockey of the third reported that his mount ran around in the closing stages. Was it a flash in the pan, or is she an exceptional champion filly in the making? Frankly, it's impossible to say after one run, but I'm not backing her at this stage.

Just 10 fillies have been left in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Sunday. Clear form picks are Darnation, Opera Singer and Les Pavots (winner of the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados), all of whom have won pattern races on soft ground. Julica is unbeaten in two starts in the provinces, which she has won by an aggregate of 9 lengths, and she could be anything.

'jamesp', thanks for your incessant contribution here.

Good to see Opera Singer has been declared for The Marcel Boussac. She'd be one of the fav no doubt on sunday. As such, it may mean Ylang Ylang Fillies Mile bound on 13th Oct at Newmarket.

Maybe not. Ylang Ylang is running tomorrow in The Rockfel. She's is 4/1 with Shuwari the fav at 2/1.

TForm have One Look 108p

Top 6f filly Ramatuelle misses both the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes and the Gr.1 Prix Jean Luc Lagardere (for which she was originally an entry). I guess she's finished for the season, but they may still be considering the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Goodness I would not say that the contributions of jamesp are incessant. Far from it. I find his posts interesting and very insightful showing a deep understanding of his topic. He also shows ability to communicate his perspective effectively to others so that we can appreciate his insights. I appreciate his posts and the posts of many others on this particular topic.

'Incessant' does tend to have a negative connotation, but I'm sure that this was not intended: 'ongoing' or 'continuing' is what was meant, I think...

Sorry 'jamesp', I did not mean it that way. I meant your diligent approach to gathering and feeding us info. Keep up the good work, I'm most appreciative!

A good performance today from Carla's Way. Not as good as Fallen Angel (6lbs better), Ramatuelle or even Vespertilio, but ahead of every other filly I've seen so far. She'd only need to find around another 4lbs to be up to average Guineas winning ability. Of course, we don't know which fillies will improve next year, or by how much, and which will go backwards, but at this stage I'd have her ahead of the likes of One Look, Matrika (needs to find about a stone, for me) and Darnation. I have Opera Singer just behind Carla's Way, and on Sunday we'll get to see how that one has come out of her latest impressive win.

Yes, it was a good performance from Carla's Way in the Rockfel. Connections are not sure she will get further than 7f on a stiff track but may try her over the sharp mile at Santa Anita in the Breeders' Cup. Shuwari came from a long way back and I'm not sure that the winner would beat her again over a mile.
Fallen Angel backers will have been pleased to see Porta Fortuna win the Cheveley Park Stakes this afternoon: she may not have been ideally suited by the yielding ground when beaten nearly six lengths in the Moyglare, but it's good to see Fallen Angel's form boosted in this way. Ramatuelle remains the best 6f filly in Europe and would have won the Cheveley Park very comfortably if she had turned up and reproduced past form: her close second to Vandeek in the Prix Morny is extremely smart form, boosted by the latter's impressive win in the Middle Park Stakes this afternoon.

Scintillating performance from Opera Singer in the Boussac. She looks a champion in the making and clearly has enough speed for a mile next spring. I've taken 7/1 for the Guineas to add to 10/1 Fallen Angel. I'm not looking to back anything else for the race, though we'll have to keep an eye on what happens in the Fillies' Mile and Breeders' Cup in the closing weeks of the season...

I've also managed to take some 7/1. She's a lovely big filly and should continue to improve.

Opera Singer seems to have locked on to this prize. It will take a very good one to beat her if she turns up. Those running in the Fillies Mile might have a say, a place at best, I believe..

Very impressive from Opera Singer with a performance that I'd say matches an average Guineas winner. That said, I still have Fallen Angel a couple of pounds ahead. I wouldn't expect either filly to make much, if any, improvement between now and next year. The top 2yo fillies rarely do, it's the lesser ones that may possibly catch them up. Fallen Angel is due to run again in the Fillies Mile. Personally I'm not sure that's a good idea after the big effort last time. The same goes for Opera Singer if she were to run. If any of them do disappoint in that race then it possibly won't hinder their chances in next year's classic anyway, but they will probably end up being a better price.

There's the O'brien factor to take into account. He obviously knows how to ready one for the Guineas, whereas Burke has it to prove. Nevertheless, I'd still side with Fallen Angel next year if she makes the race.

Opera Singer could go to America or finish for the season. Her target is the 1000G, and middle distance races, according to AOB. But, no mention of The Oaks though.

I think Ylang Ylang may go to the Fillies Mile for a Gp 1 accreditation - she finished strong in The Rockfel over 7f. Then 1000G and The Oaks perhaps.

Opera Singer has unsurprisingly leapt to the top of Timeform's juvenile fillies' rankings:
114p    OPERA SINGER (f)
111    RAMATUELLE (f)
110p    FALLEN ANGEL (f)
108p    CARLA'S WAY (f)
108p    ONE LOOK (f)
108    PORTA FORTUNA (f)

I'm surprised Opera Singer is still available at 6/1. I thought he'd be a lot shorter eg 3/1 given her annihilation of her opponents in France.

If you make her that price then you should be backing her at 6/1

I've loads in single, double, treble and acca. This season the fav bombed out in the Classics except Derby. Hope 2024 will be much better given City Of Troy, Opera Singer, Henry Longfellow, Ylang Ylang (Oaks), Diego Velazquez (Derby/Leger). What price AOB winning all 5 Classic again plz?

Fallen Angel won't run in Friday's Gr.1 Fillies' Mile and won't run again this season. She'll reportedly be put away and prepared for "a Guineas" (note, "a" Guineas, not "the" Guineas).
The Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac winner Opera Singer has surprisingly been left in the Fillies' Mile, along with 8 other fillies including Rockfel 2nd and 3rd Shuwari and Ylang Ylang.

If she has fully recovered from her last run, I would rather they send her to Newmarket and give some experience of the track rather than keep her going for another few weeks and then send her to the USA.

The Marcel Boussac is only 2 weeks ago as such unlikely Opera Singer will run in the Fillies Mile, another 1m gig. I think this 1m will suit Ylang Ylang though as she was running on in The Rockfel over 7f after a tardy start. Ylang Ylang could be an Oaks filly.

Well yes, she's clearly highly regarded and might develop into an Oaks filly, but she'll need to step up significantly on her last two runs and she's got the talented Shuwari to overcome...

Opera Singer was not declared this morning for the Fillies' Mile on Friday. Market leaders are the Rockfel 2nd Shuwari and 3rd Ylang Ylang, and one or two of the lightly raced runners look interesting.

Just eight runners for the Fillies' Mile tomorrow. The May Hill at Doncaster has been the key trial for this over the years, with 12 of the last 27 Fillies' Mile winners having either won or been placed in the Doncaster race. This points to the lightly raced See The Fire as a likely winner tomorrow. It's tempting to back her at 7/1 (she looks solid each way), but this year's May Hill looked a rather substandard renewal and she'll need to improve significantly. Ylang Ylang is certainly worth one more chance with this step up to a mile, having dwelt at the start last time in the Rockfel over 7f, but I see no particular reason why she should reverse Rockfel placings with Shuwari, who also made a sluggish start last time. Fillies without any previous pattern race form (in races of at least Listed status) have a poor record in this race, with just three of the last 27 winners boasting no pattern race form, which suggests that Classical Song has a lot to find. I can't see any value angle: I make Shuwari the likeliest winner, but 2/1 isn't especially tempting.

So to sum up jamesp is it fair to say you make it a two horse race ? With STF + CS trying to step up which is quite possible. But for me its Shuwari all the way. Got a very poor ride last time out which helped in no small way to get her beat. She wasn't unlucky just a poor ride. I couldn't have Ylang Blank. One report on her last run states 'not remotely involved' seems accurate enough when you look at the race.  Y blank needs to do an Augustine Rodin again. I will take some of that 2/1 and look forward to the 'figgis' comments. That Fallen Angel form for Shuwari is very strong.

I am not too quick to criticise the rides on Shuwari and Ylang Ylang in the Rockfel.

They were both slow out of the gate and especially with Shuwari they have ridden her from behind before.

I think they were both caught out with the pace up front. And Carla's Way was not stopping this day. She looks a quick filly.

I am not a huge fan of Ylang Ylang, and I do not see her as a classic filly for next year (I think Opera Singer looks nailed on for the Oaks) but with the likely soft ground tomorrow she would be my idea of the winner. Where stamina will be the name of the game.

JTOTD, strictly on past ratings I have Ylang Ylang ahead, but have to go back three runs for that figure, with no obvious excuse for her last two efforts. I have Shuwari only 1lb behind, but thought she was beaten fair and square last time by the quite impressive Carla's Way. Caught You Looking a further 3lbs behind, See The Fire another 2lbs lower.

I agree with jamesp that Classical Song has a fair bit to find, but she did win comfortably. For me, it's a no bet race, as even my highest rated Ylang Ylang has about 5 or 6lbs to find to become an up to scratch winner. Unless one of the more unexposed types improves a bundle, I don't see anything that should trouble Fallen Angel or Opera Singer next year.

JTOTD, I don't make it just a two horse race: I do like Shuwari, but not enough to back her at today's odds.
Nothing in today's race shouts 'Guineas winner' to me at this stage.

Very good jamesp maybe the 4.2 now on here might interest you. But has Shuwari lost a leg. Almighty drift. Still took a bit of the 4's but the drift goes on. Never a good sign.

Shuwari and Ylang Ylang are bred to appreciate middle distances next year so I've had a very small interest for the Oaks.

Don't think that was Murpy's finest hour on Shuwari LTO even with the
tardy start,didn't lose too much ground but was a good 7-8Ls behind the
wnr during that race.4/1+ on here looks big to me.Current jolly,Classical
Song's obviously got potential as have the others but Shuwari looked a good
one @Sandown,beat Fallen Angel fair & square that day,she's 2/3RD in the mkt
@ single figures for the 1000 Guineas next year.Drifted for today,can't see
why myself.
   GL ALL

O'Brien,another training performance.
Good race today.

I have it as a subpar renewal and don't see those involved having much bearing on any of next year's classics.

He said: "We're very happy with that and she looked like she outstayed them. I don't know how far she'll stay, but she would be a Guineas filly. Beyond that Ryan seems to think something like the Prix de Diane would suit her.

O'Brien said: "Ryan was beautiful on Ylang Ylang here in the Rockfel after which he said to come back here for this race. It obviously went a bit pear-shaped in the Moyglare before that, but we've always had a lot of faith in her and the race could not have worked out any better.

"She's classy and she's brave, so she's exciting. I'd say she's a Classic filly for next year and we could start her off in the 1,000 Guineas. She should have no problem getting an Oaks trip."

Winning part-owner Michael Tabor was going one better than O'Brien as he was also involved in a seventh win in the contest.

He said: "We're very happy with that and she looked like she outstayed them. I don't know how far she'll stay, but she would be a Guineas filly. Beyond that Ryan seems to think something like the Prix de Diane would suit her.

"The race here last time was a bit messy and you can forget that. Ryan looked after her when she was flat-footed that day. That's paid off on what we have seen today and she's an exciting filly for next year."

Moore said: "I think her experience helped her out early on and we went a good tempo. I kept to the outside and the two fillies in front drifted over, so I got a good run through and when we hit the rising ground the result was never in doubt.

"We've always thought a lot of her. Things didn't go her way in the Moyglare and the Rockfel, but she's shown her true colours today."


I would guess Moore is suggesting the Diane because he believes Opera Singer can do the Guineas/Oaks double, whereas I believe there is a stamina doubt about Opera Singer over 12 furlongs. Her dam and granddam raced mainly over sprint distances and she seems to have inherited plenty of speed from that side of the pedigree.

I think it would be a mistake to rely only on Opera Singer in the Oaks rather than run both as there is a fair chance she won't quite stay despite the fact she has won over a mile as a two year old.

I concur. Opera Singer is a bit too pacey to be an Oaks filly, unlike Ylang Ylang. The latter only got going 2f out even then without the acceleration shown by Ace Impact in The ARC.

I think Moore did say he'd like to come back here (France) with Opera Singer post the Marcel Boussac victory.

The Gr.1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on Friday night has attracted 14 runners. Latest betting (best available odds): 10/3 Carla's Way, 11/2 Porta Fortuna, 7/1 She Feels Pretty, 10/1 Buchu, 12/1 Content, 12/1 Les Pavots, 14/1 bar. The Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes winner Carla's Way and Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes winner Porta Fortuna head the European entries and are both stepping up in trip. Aidan O'Brien's Content seems to be on the upgrade and took a step forward to win a Gr.3 last time, but more is needed here and this will be a totally different test from her mile win on soft ground at the Curragh. I certainly won't be having a bet, as there's no way of knowing how they will act on the track on firm ground at this late stage of the year.
Aidan O'Brien also runs Cherry Blossom in the 5f Juvenile Turf Sprint: they clearly see her as a sprinter and not a potential miler next year.

No bet yet but I will probably be backing Carla's Way who I have a cut above the other European runners.

jamesp 04 Oct 23
Opera Singer has unsurprisingly leapt to the top of Timeform's juvenile fillies' rankings:
114p    OPERA SINGER (f)
111    RAMATUELLE (f)
110p    FALLEN ANGEL (f)
108p    CARLA'S WAY (f)
108p    ONE LOOK (f)
108    PORTA FORTUNA (f)

Timeform have Carla's Way and Porta Fortuna level here but I have CW 3lbs ahead. For me, it's more of a concern how she copes with the travelling, etc, than a worry about the opposition.

72-Fallen Angel
72-Ramatuelle
70-Opera Singer
68-Vespertilio
66-Carla's Way
66-Crimson Advocate
66-Relief Rally

If she's taken the journey well she'll love the warm weather at Santa Anita this afternoon and I doubt if the firm ground will be a worry, so I guess the main worries are whether she'll have luck in running and whether she's ahead of some smart-looking home-trained US runners. Watch on ITV3 later.

James, looking at past results of the event I don't think it usually takes a great deal of winning. Of course that doesn't necessarily mean it won't this year. I'd be more concerned about the extra mile and how she comes out of that latest win. For me, it was by far her best performance in four runs and there's no guarantee she'll go on from that. Not backed her yet, but I'll see how Big Evs gets on, as I'm much more confident about him.

*extra furlong

Well done with Big Evs (nice price too!)

Carla's Way seemed to struggle with the final bend: maybe a combination of the track and mile trip. Content finished like a train and found the track/trip too sharp.

Cheers james. Yes Carla's Way didn't have the best of runs but in any case she wasn't in the same form today. She may actually prove to be better at sprint trips anyway.