2024 1000 Guineas Newmarket

I've loads in single, double, treble and acca. This season the fav bombed out in the Classics except Derby. Hope 2024 will be much better given City Of Troy, Opera Singer, Henry Longfellow, Ylang Ylang (Oaks), Diego Velazquez (Derby/Leger). What price AOB winning all 5 Classic again plz?

Fallen Angel won't run in Friday's Gr.1 Fillies' Mile and won't run again this season. She'll reportedly be put away and prepared for "a Guineas" (note, "a" Guineas, not "the" Guineas).
The Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac winner Opera Singer has surprisingly been left in the Fillies' Mile, along with 8 other fillies including Rockfel 2nd and 3rd Shuwari and Ylang Ylang.

If she has fully recovered from her last run, I would rather they send her to Newmarket and give some experience of the track rather than keep her going for another few weeks and then send her to the USA.

The Marcel Boussac is only 2 weeks ago as such unlikely Opera Singer will run in the Fillies Mile, another 1m gig. I think this 1m will suit Ylang Ylang though as she was running on in The Rockfel over 7f after a tardy start. Ylang Ylang could be an Oaks filly.

Well yes, she's clearly highly regarded and might develop into an Oaks filly, but she'll need to step up significantly on her last two runs and she's got the talented Shuwari to overcome...

Opera Singer was not declared this morning for the Fillies' Mile on Friday. Market leaders are the Rockfel 2nd Shuwari and 3rd Ylang Ylang, and one or two of the lightly raced runners look interesting.

Just eight runners for the Fillies' Mile tomorrow. The May Hill at Doncaster has been the key trial for this over the years, with 12 of the last 27 Fillies' Mile winners having either won or been placed in the Doncaster race. This points to the lightly raced See The Fire as a likely winner tomorrow. It's tempting to back her at 7/1 (she looks solid each way), but this year's May Hill looked a rather substandard renewal and she'll need to improve significantly. Ylang Ylang is certainly worth one more chance with this step up to a mile, having dwelt at the start last time in the Rockfel over 7f, but I see no particular reason why she should reverse Rockfel placings with Shuwari, who also made a sluggish start last time. Fillies without any previous pattern race form (in races of at least Listed status) have a poor record in this race, with just three of the last 27 winners boasting no pattern race form, which suggests that Classical Song has a lot to find. I can't see any value angle: I make Shuwari the likeliest winner, but 2/1 isn't especially tempting.

So to sum up jamesp is it fair to say you make it a two horse race ? With STF + CS trying to step up which is quite possible. But for me its Shuwari all the way. Got a very poor ride last time out which helped in no small way to get her beat. She wasn't unlucky just a poor ride. I couldn't have Ylang Blank. One report on her last run states 'not remotely involved' seems accurate enough when you look at the race.  Y blank needs to do an Augustine Rodin again. I will take some of that 2/1 and look forward to the 'figgis' comments. That Fallen Angel form for Shuwari is very strong.

I am not too quick to criticise the rides on Shuwari and Ylang Ylang in the Rockfel.

They were both slow out of the gate and especially with Shuwari they have ridden her from behind before.

I think they were both caught out with the pace up front. And Carla's Way was not stopping this day. She looks a quick filly.

I am not a huge fan of Ylang Ylang, and I do not see her as a classic filly for next year (I think Opera Singer looks nailed on for the Oaks) but with the likely soft ground tomorrow she would be my idea of the winner. Where stamina will be the name of the game.

JTOTD, strictly on past ratings I have Ylang Ylang ahead, but have to go back three runs for that figure, with no obvious excuse for her last two efforts. I have Shuwari only 1lb behind, but thought she was beaten fair and square last time by the quite impressive Carla's Way. Caught You Looking a further 3lbs behind, See The Fire another 2lbs lower.

I agree with jamesp that Classical Song has a fair bit to find, but she did win comfortably. For me, it's a no bet race, as even my highest rated Ylang Ylang has about 5 or 6lbs to find to become an up to scratch winner. Unless one of the more unexposed types improves a bundle, I don't see anything that should trouble Fallen Angel or Opera Singer next year.

JTOTD, I don't make it just a two horse race: I do like Shuwari, but not enough to back her at today's odds.
Nothing in today's race shouts 'Guineas winner' to me at this stage.

Very good jamesp maybe the 4.2 now on here might interest you. But has Shuwari lost a leg. Almighty drift. Still took a bit of the 4's but the drift goes on. Never a good sign.

Shuwari and Ylang Ylang are bred to appreciate middle distances next year so I've had a very small interest for the Oaks.

Don't think that was Murpy's finest hour on Shuwari LTO even with the
tardy start,didn't lose too much ground but was a good 7-8Ls behind the
wnr during that race.4/1+ on here looks big to me.Current jolly,Classical
Song's obviously got potential as have the others but Shuwari looked a good
one @Sandown,beat Fallen Angel fair & square that day,she's 2/3RD in the mkt
@ single figures for the 1000 Guineas next year.Drifted for today,can't see
why myself.
   GL ALL

O'Brien,another training performance.
Good race today.

I have it as a subpar renewal and don't see those involved having much bearing on any of next year's classics.

He said: "We're very happy with that and she looked like she outstayed them. I don't know how far she'll stay, but she would be a Guineas filly. Beyond that Ryan seems to think something like the Prix de Diane would suit her.

O'Brien said: "Ryan was beautiful on Ylang Ylang here in the Rockfel after which he said to come back here for this race. It obviously went a bit pear-shaped in the Moyglare before that, but we've always had a lot of faith in her and the race could not have worked out any better.

"She's classy and she's brave, so she's exciting. I'd say she's a Classic filly for next year and we could start her off in the 1,000 Guineas. She should have no problem getting an Oaks trip."

Winning part-owner Michael Tabor was going one better than O'Brien as he was also involved in a seventh win in the contest.

He said: "We're very happy with that and she looked like she outstayed them. I don't know how far she'll stay, but she would be a Guineas filly. Beyond that Ryan seems to think something like the Prix de Diane would suit her.

"The race here last time was a bit messy and you can forget that. Ryan looked after her when she was flat-footed that day. That's paid off on what we have seen today and she's an exciting filly for next year."

Moore said: "I think her experience helped her out early on and we went a good tempo. I kept to the outside and the two fillies in front drifted over, so I got a good run through and when we hit the rising ground the result was never in doubt.

"We've always thought a lot of her. Things didn't go her way in the Moyglare and the Rockfel, but she's shown her true colours today."


I would guess Moore is suggesting the Diane because he believes Opera Singer can do the Guineas/Oaks double, whereas I believe there is a stamina doubt about Opera Singer over 12 furlongs. Her dam and granddam raced mainly over sprint distances and she seems to have inherited plenty of speed from that side of the pedigree.

I think it would be a mistake to rely only on Opera Singer in the Oaks rather than run both as there is a fair chance she won't quite stay despite the fact she has won over a mile as a two year old.

I concur. Opera Singer is a bit too pacey to be an Oaks filly, unlike Ylang Ylang. The latter only got going 2f out even then without the acceleration shown by Ace Impact in The ARC.

I think Moore did say he'd like to come back here (France) with Opera Singer post the Marcel Boussac victory.

The Gr.1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on Friday night has attracted 14 runners. Latest betting (best available odds): 10/3 Carla's Way, 11/2 Porta Fortuna, 7/1 She Feels Pretty, 10/1 Buchu, 12/1 Content, 12/1 Les Pavots, 14/1 bar. The Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes winner Carla's Way and Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes winner Porta Fortuna head the European entries and are both stepping up in trip. Aidan O'Brien's Content seems to be on the upgrade and took a step forward to win a Gr.3 last time, but more is needed here and this will be a totally different test from her mile win on soft ground at the Curragh. I certainly won't be having a bet, as there's no way of knowing how they will act on the track on firm ground at this late stage of the year.
Aidan O'Brien also runs Cherry Blossom in the 5f Juvenile Turf Sprint: they clearly see her as a sprinter and not a potential miler next year.

No bet yet but I will probably be backing Carla's Way who I have a cut above the other European runners.

jamesp 04 Oct 23
Opera Singer has unsurprisingly leapt to the top of Timeform's juvenile fillies' rankings:
114p    OPERA SINGER (f)
111    RAMATUELLE (f)
110p    FALLEN ANGEL (f)
108p    CARLA'S WAY (f)
108p    ONE LOOK (f)
108    PORTA FORTUNA (f)

Timeform have Carla's Way and Porta Fortuna level here but I have CW 3lbs ahead. For me, it's more of a concern how she copes with the travelling, etc, than a worry about the opposition.

72-Fallen Angel
72-Ramatuelle
70-Opera Singer
68-Vespertilio
66-Carla's Way
66-Crimson Advocate
66-Relief Rally

If she's taken the journey well she'll love the warm weather at Santa Anita this afternoon and I doubt if the firm ground will be a worry, so I guess the main worries are whether she'll have luck in running and whether she's ahead of some smart-looking home-trained US runners. Watch on ITV3 later.

James, looking at past results of the event I don't think it usually takes a great deal of winning. Of course that doesn't necessarily mean it won't this year. I'd be more concerned about the extra mile and how she comes out of that latest win. For me, it was by far her best performance in four runs and there's no guarantee she'll go on from that. Not backed her yet, but I'll see how Big Evs gets on, as I'm much more confident about him.

*extra furlong

Well done with Big Evs (nice price too!)

Carla's Way seemed to struggle with the final bend: maybe a combination of the track and mile trip. Content finished like a train and found the track/trip too sharp.

Cheers james. Yes Carla's Way didn't have the best of runs but in any case she wasn't in the same form today. She may actually prove to be better at sprint trips anyway.

Opera Singer almost certainly out.

Bloody hell

"She had had a little setback and had to have two weeks easy. When you have that it's difficult enough to get to the English Guineas. It's possible but I'd say it's more unlikely than likely and she could end up starting at the Curragh rather than in England." (AOB)
It's hard enough identifying the leading O'Brien filly in the first instance each season, but when this kind of thing happens you feel like giving up on the ante-post game altogether...
I assume that this makes Content a more likely contender for Newmarket, following her eyecatching performance at the Breeders' Cup last autumn. I don't fancy Ylang Ylang: she looks an out and out stayer.

On two year old form Fallen Angel looks far the most compelling horse and if trained by O'Brien, Gosden etc it would probably be about 9/4 now that Opera Singer is out.

Shuwari N/R.

Gutting for Ollie Sangster. He must have been fancying his filly's chances of reversing the Fillies' Mile form with the Guineas favourite Ylang Ylang (she was only beaten half a length). Very unfortunate for her young trainer.

Dance Sequence 16s into 12s today.
Tipping line?

8/1 Dance Sequence

Do you know if Dance Sequence has wintered in Newmarket or Dubai ? I think some thing similar went on last year with the Godolphin Bin Suroor filly. Maybe shades of 1998 as well with Cape Verdi and Frankie. All to play for at this stage. If I remember correctly Cape Verdi had a penchant for taking on colts. Paddy 2me says his filly in top order and we might see her this weekend.

I was there when Cape Verdi won the Guineas,she hammered the field.
Went off Fav for the Derby.Don't think she won another race after the Guineas.

Do they still ship their horses to Dubai for winter?

Sounded like this year they didn't.Bit in the R.Post
with Appleby.

Fallen Angel will go straight to the Guineas.
Connections are happy with Ylang Ylang, and she's likely to start off in the Guineas en route to Epsom.
Porta Fortuna (the Cheveley Park Stakes winner) is a likely favourite for the Leopardstown trial on Sunday.
Ramatuelle (runner-up in the Prix Morny) is an intended runner in next week's Prix Imprudence at Chantilly.
Anyone know what the Seagull has tipped for the race? Apparently he's picked a couple of outsiders, as usual...

correction: the Prix Imprudence next week is at Deauville, not Chantilly. Ramatuelle is well clear of the rest on ratings.
Charlie Appleby and Aidan O'Brien both have a couple of entries (notably the latter's Group 2 winner Matrika).

I thought Ramatuelle looked not to stay when chinned by Vandeek in the Prix Morny over 6f on very soft ground.

Ramatuelle's relatively small size last season, her natural speed and the fact that she tired late on in the testing ground in the Prix Morny are all concerns as far as the Guineas is concerned, which is why I'm staying on the fence until we've seen her in the Prix Imprudence. 7f on decent ground should be no problem at all, but we don't know the state of the ground at Deauville. She's already good enough to win a Guineas based on last year's form, if she's trained on and is able to stretch to a mile.

This race looks pretty open. What a shame Opera Singer is a very unlikely runner here after her scintillating performance in France last season? As such, my attention is on the winner of the Fillies Mile at Newmarket. I think she'd be progressing, and was ridden correctly to maximise her potential. Also, the runner-up Shuwari had solid form.

Ramatuelle will face six rivas at Deauville on Tuesday, including Charlie Appleby's listed winner Romantic Style and the Gr.3 Prix Miesque winner Tamfana. Ramatuelle is about 10lbs clear on last season's form.

*rivals

Haven't watched the race yet, but this is the provisional result of the Prix Imprudence:
1. Romantic Style (Appleby)
2. Ramatuelle (Head)
3. Tamfana (Menuisier)
Distances: half length, half length
A tight finish in very heavy ground.

Just watched the race: Ramatuelle was keen in the early stages before settling, she definitely got the 7f and if anything she was coming back at the winner in the final strides. She doesn't appear to have grown much, but she'll surely come on for the run, she'll be better on quicker ground and has a decent chance of getting a mile if learning to settle better.

20-25/1 for the Guineas after that.

That's a very tempting price. She's top-rated on last season's form. Just waiting to hear about future plans.

"Christopher Head was far from downcast after the defeat of G1 Prix Morny second Ramatuelle and confirmed next month's G1 1000 Guineas remains the number one target. “You always have worries when you are not sure if they have trained on from two to three and that was a very positive return. On such [deep] ground you can easily sink after doing too much too early, but she kept finding again at the end. That was most encouraging and, if all is well, we shall stick to the plan and go to Newmarket for the [May 5 G1] 1000 [Guineas].”

I've availed myself of 20/1 Ramatuelle to add to my 10/1 wager on Fallen Angel (plus non-runner Opera Singer). That'll be it, I think, regardless of what happens in the other trials. I respect Ylang Ylang but can't have her at the price, and I think she's likely to need further than a mile.

Thank you for the update, James.
I will wait to see if the ground ever dries up before having another bet.
(Lost on Opera Singer)

Romantic Style's bypassing Nmt, going for the FR1000G's.

I am still hopeful that One Look will come to HQ. A bit of money recently.
This is not a big strapping filly with scope to fill a frame.
But she has now had 2 runs.
In the first she thrashed a huge field including the Lowther second as if they were trees.
Now she has had a run in an unsuitable bog to set her up for a classic.

He first run showed she has a fantastic turn of foot. Fabulous.
If she is near the leaders at HQ near the end, it’s goodnight nurse, thank you and goodnight, she has speed to burn.

Irish Guineas,no Nmt according to her trainer.

In my view and basing it on her comeback run a few weeks back One Look is not good enough to win a Guineas unless it was very sub-standard.

I remain sceptical about that debut performance by One Look, as it was run on soft ground and all of the runner-up Cherry Blossom's best form has been over sprint distances on good or faster ground (including her second in the Lowther) and she struggled to get home over 7f on soft. They even dropped her back to 5f at the Breeders' Cup.

Even before ante post fav Opera Singer was ruled out I thought Fallen Angel was the most likely winner. On my ratings, the figure she put up to win the Moyglare was good enough to have taken 8 of the last 10 Guineas. So in my view she doesn't need to improve, she only has to turn up in the same form. Admittedly that isn't something that can be just taken for granted but if she does she is extremely likely to win.

This year's trials have been very poor. The only filly I can see who could possibly give her a race is Ramatuelle, but stamina has always been a big doubt where the french filly is concerned. It could be argued that she was just a touch fresh and undercooked for her trial. However, to my eye that day she looked more likely to appreciate dropping back to 6f than stepping up another furlong.

With Opera Singer not in contention, on form Fallen Angel has it to win this year's renewal given her main nemesis (to me) Ylang Ylang is unfriendly in the market; Dance Sequence's run in the Nell Gwyn was uninspiring, and she'd need the extra furlong to win if close enough 2f out.

Opera Singer is 5/2 for the Irish 1000G with Hendo's sponsor (sole marketmaker); One Look is 9/4. Why is the former not 6/4 or shorter? Unless she's also iffy for this event.

Obviously a doubt about her lining up. The boys are true to form economical with info. The way the Ballydoyle horses ran today raises concerns surely about the stables runners in Newmarket. Can we expect announcements soon due to the really wet Spring weather.

Ramatuelle is 2/1 for the French equivalent on 12th May. Given this will she pop up here as well? This one seems tougher, and she needs to travel as well.

She's 5/1 co-favourite for the French race with Betfair Sportsbook. I doubt if she'll run in the French Guineas, to be honest. The trainer believes the Rowley Mile suits a quick filly and is reportedly keen to run Ramatuelle next weekend. The forecast is for mostly dry warm weather on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, which will hopefully ensure good ground.

A big discrepancy between here and 'sly' (2/1).

Fillies Mile holds the key to this to me.Preference is
for See The Fire who should have lots of improvement in
her still after only 3 runs over Ylang Ylang.Might be
entirely wrong but can't have the French filly,Ramatuelle.
Surely Appleby would be running Romantic Style here, the
filly who beat her in France if that was a proper guide to
this.Best outsider could be Darnation,who,if you forgive
her last run has some good form to her name.
   GL ALL

See The Fire is a decent prospect but I'd have thought she's likely to be best at around 10f (by Sea The Stars out of Juddmonte International winner Arabian Queen), and she drifted left in all three of her starts last year, which is a slight concern.

Charlie Appleby was quoted as saying that he didn't think Romantic Style would stay a mile in the English Guineas, which is why they're going for the French equivalent. I don't quite see the logic of that decision, as the Rowley Mile is just as suitable for quick fillies as the turning mile at Longchamp (in my opinion), but of course it all depends on how the race is run...

Hoping Fallen Angel wins but have added Elmalka at 28/1.
GL All

uncle I'm with you there with Karl Burke's filly. Was a fine winner of the Moyglare staying on well at the finish. That was on yielding ground so rain should not be a worry for the 'Angel'.

charlie apples runs 2 dance sequance the choice of will b he may be correct but i wernt that impressed last time and i prefer cindarellas dream who is unbeaten in 4 seems to be getting better and got the mile no problem in meydan a bit to find on ratings but well bred and we dont know her limit yet barca takes the ride and at  20/1 iv e had a good bet each way 4 places these fillys can improve bundles and tho seemingly the 2nd string i dont think they put the gun to their heads at home and she might not show that much at home .
SELECTION CINDARELLAS DREAM 20/1 EW BOG B365.GOOD LUCK OPINIONS ENCOURAGED .

I've not had a winner since Minding in 2016 (ridiculous it's been 8 years). This year's renewal is just as tricky for me, I think. As such, I've just included Ramatuelle (7/1, and she's been backed) with Fallen Angel and Ylang Ylang (suited by a step-up in distance).

I hope one of the bullets hits the bulls-eye.

The fancied fillies are book ending the draw. For no good reason I am looking at the higher draw perhaps having more pace. I backed Ylang Ylang a long time ago and will lay for a little and to back up my draw theory will back Ramatuelle each way.

Ramatuelle x4 places evens.

The French backed into favourite

The French filly backed into favourite

Ylang Ylang 4-places is 6/4; 3-places is 5/2. I think either is a play. Ramatuelle is into fav at 9/2 best now (mostly 4/1).

I'm not suprised that the money has come for Ramatuelle. Christopher Head has been quite bullish in the last couple of weeks and thinks she'll get the mile. A number of Aidan O'Brien's runners have disappointed recently on seasonal debut, and they've started saying that Ylang Ylang could be more of an Oaks filly... I'm happy to be on the front two in the betting. Good luck all.

Good luck jamesp. Your absence had been noted. I did think you were amongst that colossal crowd in Louisville last night.

also gone for regal jubilee ew 33/1 4 places decent last year winning 2 from 3 and narrowly btn on debut this year over 7f back up to a mile today the shoe rides and gosdens getting into top form.good luck all.

Boom.

A sorry no show from mine. Unlucky with Ramatuelle not staying jamesp. When she kicked clear I was kicking myself for doubting her stamina. She looked in a different league at that point. My first reaction is it was a poor renewal with the rest just grinding out the finish against a superior non stayer. Well done uncle, any other winners.

well done uncle great call! enjoy!

Wnr was a bit slow to get away & done well to get up in the end.
Got lucky there as the French filly looked to have the race in
the bag.Ylang Ylang looks to have a great chance in the Oaks after
her run.See The Fire very disappointing in all fairness.
Uncle,lovely wnr
  wd
   GL

In a race that was run at a good overall pace there is no excuse for a poor time. Not quite as bad as the atrocious Ameerat Guineas but I make that the second worst this century. The third aside, who may go on to win a decent sprint (it's hard to be sure as it wasn't that difficult to kick clear from this lot), I'll be amazed if the form of this classic has any bearing in better Gp1s later in the season. I would include the Oaks in that, as these look a bunch of equine snails.

i thought Ylang Ylang looked an oaks prospect

Godolphin ran Dance Sequence today who didn't run too well.
Wonder if they regret not letting Romantic Style take her
chance in this.Beat todays 3RD & 4TH LTO.

I thought that Frank was unlucky but the ride that was given to the French filly was quite shocking. None of the front runners managed to hang on and why the jockey thought it a neat idea to use all his speed well before the final furlong off a strong place is strange. A terrible ride. If he had waited another furlong he’d have won easily.

COT, very unlucky but typical Spencer. Nothing wrong with giving the filly a waiting ride but when the jockeys around him start rowing away to make their move he chooses to wait some more, the gaps are all blocked and then comes the inevitable panic mode. Seen it so many times but he isn't going to learn now. I know it's easy to get carried away with horses staying on when the race is all but over, but looking at the margins beaten and the poor level of form in front it's not implausible that Tamfana may have won.

Really unlucky James. Hope you managed to layoff at 1.05?!

Fallen Angel was disappointing. Ground maybe?

COT, French jockey has limited experience of the track and so it proved. Change the jockey and Ramatuelle would have won

Menuisier booking Spencer and then moaning that his horse didn't get a clear run and was unlucky is priceless.
You reap what you sow and all that....

Sint, no excuses with the ground. She looked well in herself and the reports were positive, but after improving on every single run last year that was definitely a big backwards step. She may have just lost that ability. We've seen many bounce back from runs like that in the Guineas and it wouldn't be a surprise if she did too but I doubt I'll be backing her next time.

I don't know if Ramatuelle could've beaten yesterday's opposition ridden with more restraint, but, for me, Head shouldn't even be thinking of running her over a mile again. I have that performance a good 2 lengths below her best over 6f last year.

There's no doubt that Ramatuelle didn't quite last the mile. There was always a doubt whether she would get the trip. Maybe with a bit more restraint she could have prevailed, but a true stayer would have run through the line anyway, so one can't make excuses. Hard to know what her optimum trip will be now.
I think it was a decent renewal in terms of ratings: athough only a length covered the first five home, three of them already had solid Group 1 form and the winner was unexposed and open to plenty of improvement. Impossible to pick the winner on juvenile form, of course...

4TH,maybe even 5TH just after the line.Wonder if she'll run in
the Coronation Stks?

The French horse only got done on the hill. a flat track where if left alone in a slower run race on a flattish track (Goodwood ?.), and maybe a shorter distance she has to be a banker.
If People think that the odds of the Fav going down the hill at Epsom (when she became unbalanced in the dip in the 1000),looks bright, then they don't know much about racing. Surprised they even consider running her!!!!.

Will Oisin Murphy bring jamesp out to play again in the Coronation?

Sorry, only just saw your post... no I wasn't tempted to back Ramatuelle in the Coronation Stakes: I don't think she quite gets a mile and will benefit from a drop in trip to 7f... meanwhile, Porta Fortuna continues to go from strength to strength and loved the good to firm ground at Ascot.

To revisit this race, I still say it was as poor a Guineas as I thought at the time. Porta Fortuna improved later to win a couple of Gp1s, but I still have Fallen Angel as the better filly. How good she will prove to be first time after the setback I don't know, but I've had a few quid on her again.