2023 1000 Guineas Newmarket

It will be a great shame if the trainers of Tahiyra (1000G) and Little Big Bear (2000G) choose to by-pass the English Guineas.

It has been a long time since the Aga Khan had a runner in this race. 2002 if I am correct.
2004 was his last runner in the 2000 Guineas.

It's worth listening to Nick Luck's daily podcast last Monday: Dermot Weld's and the RP's Lee Mottershead's comments on Tahiyra are at 02:45-07:00 in the podcast:
https://soundcloud.com/user-418663758/ep-711-weld-waits-on-tahiyra-target
No decision until later in the month, it depends on how she's working: "she'll tell me when she's ready" says Weld. In other words, she'll need to look good in her coat (which depends on warmish spring weather in the coming weeks) and she'll need to be working well if she's to go to the English Guineas.
Lee Mottershead commented that Tahiyra was brilliant in the Moyglare (gave Meditate a few lengths and made up ground very quickly), but it's hard to back her for the Guineas at this stage...
If you're on at 6/1 (the best price straight after the Moyglare), hold on to your bets and keep fingers crossed. If you're not already on, it's a gamble to back her now at around 5/2.

Curragh looks most likely so jamesp.....really bitter cold around the curragh again 2day. The filly can walk over the road to run in the Irish 1000gns. A classic is a classic, and we do love our Curragh. It's home ground. So see yaw'l in the Curragh real soon.

yep id say the curragh the most likely of the two ,one that could be interesting at a decent price is the  gosdens juddmont filly coppice a winner of her only start at 2 comes under the could be anything or nothing catorgory ,seems to be held in some regard also the same connections arrest in the 2,000 gns ,will they have them ready for the early classics is the bugbear but i have had a few small each way singles and ew double just in case ,if tayhira dont run then meditate will be short and it looks a bit thin bar her !

soz my mistake should have said will be backing arrest and coppice but arrest not quoted so just a small  each way coppice at 20/1 paddies.

I hope Tahiyra and Meditate do battle here. If so, an additional silver bullet for me in the contest; Meditate is good, but not cast iron though, is she?

Meditate is now slight favourite for the Guineas ahead of Tahiyra with some firms...
Coppice (12/1 for the Guineas) is by far the shortest in the Guineas betting among the entries for the Nell Gwyn Stakes next Wednesday. She's one of seven once-raced winners among the 24 entries.

Weather quite cold still over here with some frosts in the Curragh area at night. Also ground still wet so with your latest betting update jamesp a Newmarket appearance seems more and more doubtful.

Yes, I agree... it doesn't sound too promising for Tahiyra backers. Warmer weather is needed, and it looks touch and go whether she'll be ready in time.

The thing is... How does Aidan O'Brien get his fillies (or more often his colts) ready for the Newmarket classics? Aren't they just as backward in their coats? How do they so often 'come to hand' in time for early May targets? Does he use equine sun-lamps and underfloor heating? What's his secret??

Ballydoyle is way down south. It's like the Cote D'azur there. Then all those expensive horse solariums. No need to go to Dubai. Curragh harsh cold winds even in July.

James

meditate weak as pish ...a nonner ?

have cahed out of my meditate .auguste ew doubles wi b365

Manipulation I think. It was Tahiyra last week.

10/1 on here ..paled safe can always go back in if a runner

played safe^^^

There seems to have been an extraordinary gamble on Charlie Appleby's filly Dream Of Love, generally now a 6/1 chance for the Guineas (just 5/1 with some firms). Last seen when finishing fast and narrowly failing to get up over 7f at Meydan in January (beaten a short head by Mawj), she has an official rating of 108 (up from 95 at the end of her juvenile career). She's obviously done well over the winter and will do well over 8f+ (her dam won the Lingfield Oaks Trial), but it's a bit offputting that she was reportedly unbalanced coming out of the dip at Newmarket on her final juvenile start in the Montrose Stakes (Listed). 6/1 is an incredibly short price at this stage, and one can only assume that she's doing sensational things on the home gallops, and she's presumably Appleby's main Guineas candidate...

I guess the move for Dream Of Love has been caused partly by the doubts surrounding both Tahiyra and Meditate...

That seems a little like Cape Verdi jamesp although she was a real good top 2year old. Bought by Maktoums and soon transferred to Binny Suroor. Was in Newmarket on that day and it was heavily backed. Good memories.
Gonna set spiocor loose on harry again. He's very bold.

Scorpio Harry beware!!!!

Meditate back in to under 5/1 after touching 20.

nell gwyn  7f today and lots of unexposed fillys line up in what could be an informative race ,coppice innner space karsavina girl racer mammas girl all unbeaten plus plenty with decent form in the book already , coppice seen a fair bit of support the last few weeks , interesting the gosdens starting out inner space over this trip breeeding suggests further will suit.

Sadly, as seems to be case all the time on the Old Course now, there is a massive golden highway toward the near rail - even with the stalls in the middle.
The strong headwind yesterday gave those coming from behind a bit of a chance but if that dies down or switches to a tail wind it will be nigh on impossible to come from behind or from a couple of horses wide.

Rowley Mile - not Old Course.
Got Cheltenham on the brain.

The Gosden/Dettori team is obviously a factor, but 7/1 about Coppice for the Guineas is absolutely crazy at this stage. Today's race will tell us more, and I'm looking forward to seeing her in the flesh, but she'll need to win impressively to justify her current price for the Guineas.

was 20s when i mentioned her about 3 weeks ago but agree an absurd price now for what she has acheived so far .

Backed a Gosden horse,Soul Sister for this @ quite big
prices on here & 100s E/W for a few quid.My main bet
on her is for the Oaks,though.Thought she won well in
the end on her only start @Donny last season,could be
anything in all honesty ,by Frankel and see she's
entered up for the Fred Darling on Saturday.Looking
forward to her reappearance.

Quite a takeing performance by Mammas Girl there in the Nell Gwyn.

Yes, it was a fine performance by Mammas Girl on just her second start. She's highly regarded and the result came as no surprise to Richard Hannon. The runner-up is rated 104, so the performance can be rated about 110. My immediate reaction after the race was to make her about a 10/1 chance for the Guineas (taking into account the doubts about Tahiyra's participation); 7/1 now looks a bit short. I suspect that the favourite Coppice was done no favours by her wide draw; she's related to Calyx, and despite her 7f debut win may have some stamina limitations.

Could end up a good betting heat this, if tahiyra doesn’t take up the invitation. Surely weld won’t turn down the gift though

Wont run on firm ground
Could also apply to Hannons runner today

jamesp you didn't mention Silver Lady. Interesting dat trainer said Dream of Love was in the right race for her. Fiddled around with thoughts of early classic for Silver Lady but seems unlikely. Tempted by dream but no firm news on fav. What's your thoughts now on Godolphin's gambled filly with Silver Lady pretty impressive.

Silver Lady made a nice winning debut, though the bare form is quite ordinary, and she's evidently very well regarded. It sounds like they may aim her at the Coronation Stakes, since she's not in the Guineas, and they clearly think that Dream of Love is a more realistic Guineas filly. With such formidable firepower in the stable, one has to respect Dream of Love, but if Tahiyra turns up and is ready to run then I couldn't possibly back anything else to beat her. It remains to be seen how Dream of Love's Meydan form  transfers to the Rowley Mile, but it looks like she's made plenty of improvement over the winter and she does seem a more likely contender for the Guineas than the inexperienced Silver Lady. I think the latter will get 10f later on.

I don't think Tahiyra will be ready for for 1000 Guineas.  If she had been making quick progress this spring she would have had an entry in the Epsom Oaks as a natural progression from the English Guineas.  If she waits till the Irish Guineas for her seasonal debut, the Epsom Oaks (with it's step up in trip) will come round to soon.
However, she has an entry in the Irish Oaks (22nd July).  So I see it as likely that her schedule will be Irish 1000 guineas (or possibly French Guineas) and then Irish Oaks.

I doubt if Tahiyra will get 12f, so I don't think the Irish Oaks entry is likely to be taken up. Her sire Siyouni has produced one genuinely top class 12f performer (Sottsass), but most of his best progeny have been effective at shorter distances (up to 10f). Tahiyra is bred along similar lines to the Prix de Diane winner Laurens (out of a stoutly bred Cape Cross mare) and has shown a lot more speed and precocity than her half-sister Tarnawa (who needed 10f at three to get off the mark). 8-10f races should be her forte this season. The Irish Guineas may be her starting point if she's not ready for Newmarket. Then maybe the Prix de Diane or Coronation Stakes.

Good analysis, James.  I will take that onbaord.

Fred Darling wnr,Remarquee put in as short as 6/1 with
a few firms.Thought Mammas Girl also @ 6s was the more
impressive myself.On a line through the 2nd to Mammas
Girl,Fairy Cross, bin Surroor's Mawj who beat that over
8Ls in Meydan seems quite big around the 14 & 16/1 mark.
Is she an intended starter for the 1000Gs does anyone
know?
  Tx.

The market has settled a bit for the two principals ie Tahiyra and Meditate. The former was as big as 8 - now only 4.4 here; the latter 6.6 - shortest for a long while.

I think one of the trials threw up a promising winner in Mamas Girl. Nonetheless, if Tahiyra turns up as well as last season there'll only be one winner. But, her presence is the $64k unknown.

Mamas Girl was given complete cover from the headwind until the last 2 furlongs. She was 16/1 and I doubt whether she is as good as she looked.

re: Mawj. I'm not sure that her wide-margin Meydan win should be taken too literally: Danny Tudhope gave her an enterprising ride and effectively stole the race before William Buick got going on the runner-up Fairy Cross. In any case, Fairy Cross was having her first race for six months, whereas Mawj was fit from her narrow Meydan win over Dream Of Love, who seems to be Godolphin's main Guineas fancy. Although she's a half-sister to top milers Modern Games and Modern News, Mawj herself is by the speed influence Exceed And Excel, so she may turn out to be best at shorter distances even though she's won over a mile on the turning track at Meydan - all her races last year were over 6f and she's shown plenty of speed in her career to date.

re: Mammas Girl. I've not analysed all the races at the Craven meeting, but might she have had an advantage in being produced from behind on the stands side? Coppice and others drawn on the far side seemed to be at a slight disadvantage. Is this borne out by other results at the meeting? She was quite impressive and I wouldn't be put off by the 16/1 SP, as she's highly regarded at home. She'll probably need to find a few more pounds improvement, which is entirely possible, but she'll be taking on better opposition on what may turn out to be faster ground. There's also the 'bounce' factor to take into account, as it was her first race for six months, but she looks like a genuine contender.

To me Mawj easily beat Fairy Cross,went clear of her.They was
also jnt fav's.The 3rd horse in that ran against Mawj on both
her Meydan starts,getting within 2Ls the 1st time but then got
beat nearer 10Ls in the above race.Don't think Tudhope stole that
at all.

Well, we see the race rather differently. To my eyes Mawj set quite a sedate pace, got first run and sprinted clear of a ring-rusty opponent who was a long way below her best. On the day, Mawj was a much speedier and fitter filly than Fairy Cross. Even so, Mawj was impressive and it will be interesting to see whether she can translate that form to European Group 1's. Bin Suroor said after the Meydan romp:
"She’s a tiny filly but she has plenty of speed, she’s by Exceed And Excel. There are options to run her in the French or the English Guineas, one of those will be the next target with her. The way she’s done it, she’s definitely improved, she did it so well. She’s grown a little bit out in Dubai and she’s a better filly now. To run her in the Guineas is a bigger step, but we will have a chance."

PS The third in both of those Meydan races, Alseyoob, looking at all her races to date, seems to be a very inconsistent and unpredictable filly. When she got close to Mawj (on 27 January) she made most of the running, it was soft ground over 7f, and she was a big outsider (touched 66/1). More recently, it was a mile race on good ground and she was held up in mid-division and looked onepaced. She ran much better when making the running on soft ground, but she was nowhere near so effective up in trip on better ground with different tactics.

Alseyoob was within 1L of Mawj coming around the bend,
Mawj destroyed her within a few strides as she did the
rest of the field.

I don't want to knock Mawj, she has a very good turn of foot and she was certainly impressive last time at Meydan (the RP handicapper rates it her best performance to date, 3lbs better than her placed effort behind Lezoo in the Cheveley Park Stakes). She goes particularly well on fast ground (like her half-siblings Modern Games and Modern News) and was some way below her best when scraping home over 7f on soft ground on 27 January. But the overall level of her latest form is still a few pounds below average Guineas-winning ratings: the handicapper has raised her by just one pound from 109 to 110 following her recent win. She was impressive, but there wasn't a lot of strength in depth (assuming that the runner-up needed the race). It sounds like she may be routed to the French Guineas.

A hope the market is reflecting the chance of an appearance of Meditate and Tahiyra.

Only a week to go to the classic. Any news on any horses that may run?

don't know when the final decs are, no news is good news regarding Tahyira, surely if it wasn't going to run the trainer would know by now. cheers.

I'm sure the trainer has known for a while what he is doing. You do not be as excellent a trainer as DKW and not know your horses. Only issue with DKW might be ground concerns. I hope he waits for the Curragh, however if DKW goes across get the wheelbarrow. Might have only the doubtful stayer to beat, whose Keenland win was against mostly modest opposition.

It's the confirmation entry stage today. Expect to see some withdrawals, particularly among the outsiders. Final declarations later this week.

Tahiyra has just been entered for the Gr.3 Amethyst Stakes over a mile at Leopardstown next Sunday (1000 Guineas day). We'll find out very soon whether she's been left in the Guineas as well.

Good updates jamesp ominous that Curragh today has no DKW runners. Ominous for ante post backers. As George Hamilton often said in  soccer commentary's 'danger here'.

22 fillies out of the original 64 entries remain in the Guineas. All the leading contenders have been left in.

Correction: 26 fillies remain (Betfair currently have only 22 in their market for the race).

Speaking to the Racing Post on Monday morning, Weld said: "The plan at the moment is to run at Newmarket on Sunday. We will make a final decision in the middle of the week but at this present moment I am happy for her to take her chance on Sunday."

Weld said of his star filly: "I'm satisfied with her. She's never a filly who shows you much at home. Even last year she never showed us much away from the track. She's a lazy individual and she hasn't grown much from two to three, but she's coming forward nicely and the plan is to run on Sunday."

"I've won the Irish 1,000 Guineas five times, but I haven't had many runners in the English one. That's because the Irish Guineas is a little bit later in the season and it gives fillies a little longer in their coat and allows them to come forward."

"It was a funny spring. We had a very dry February but March and a lot of April has been wet and cold. I would have liked a little more time with Tahiyra but she's coming forward now."

The trainer added: "The Newmarket 1,000 Guineas is a race I have never targeted in the past, for the simple reason that I like to give my fillies a little longer to come. There are so many opportunities for fillies throughout the season. There are a lot of races for them in the autumn and it's a very long year. You can't afford to have them very fit, forward and fancied for the end of April."

"But, as I said, I'm satisfied with Tahiyra and how she's coming along and the plan at the moment is to run on Sunday all being well. We will make a final decision later in the week."

i'm on james appears what we needed to hear all it has to now is win and boom boom.

Good to see the best filly running, never in doubt.

She looks like potentially the most exciting filly in the race so hopefully she is ready to show us how good she is.

The final dec for 2000G is thursday. As such I'd infer the final dec for this race is friday as it's run a day later. At the moment the big boys and girls are on schedule for the respective gig.

I wouldn't be confident of Chris Hayes getting the job done on anything that comes off the bridle, and these days Weld is probably only a short head behind him.

I'd be very disappointed if Tahiyra ran at Leopardstown instead of this Gp 1 Classic.

Remarquee all the way for me. The going is a bit of a worry but Kingman progeny are on fire recently. 9 winners in 6 days in May.

Well al aboard now this good thing. DKW wins the last at Naas to come out of the cold run. Wheelbarrow time.

DKW stated he'd be happier with another couple of weeks for the fav. Maybe Irish 1000G a probable cert then.

Another tricky affair but I’ve backed 3 Tahiyra win, dream of love ew and a little on the rag Caernarfon as think the odds are to big on this closer. Tahiyra really ought to take the beating imo but I think the godolphin horse can at least race her.

With you harry on the fav. Savers om W Buick and might play a place only on your longshot. Having played Meditate in Keenland against weak opposition on more suitable ground wouldn't touch it tomorrow. It may have stamina limitations exposed on this ground at this tough track.

I'm still baffled, and well out of pocket, as to why Never Ending Story isn't running. They made that decision very early so one can only assume they have utmost confidence in Meditate - though she has drifted like a barge since yesterdays Ballydoyle horses ran like drains.
It's not the first time the O'Brien 2,000 Guineas horses have flopped yet his record in the 1,000 is pretty rock solid.
Now 9/1 on here which is hard to resist at least for a saver.

I've been a fan of Remarquee since her taking debut and have a few very small ante post bets on her at an average of 18/1.

Have also thrown a few quid on Embrace at 100 on here as I like Owen Burrows.

I'm not surprised that Meditate is on the drift. Aidan O'Brien had concerns about having to bring his Guineas colts over earlier than normal, and Meditate too has come over early (rather than on the morning of the race). In most of the mile+ races so far at the Guineas meeting it has paid to be prominent, which will place the emphasis on stamina. When Meditate raced prominently in the Moyglare last season she ran out of gas in the latter stages on soft ground. She was fine with the mile trip on firm ground round the tight track at Keeneland, but today she will face completely different conditions. If I were a Meditate ante-post backer, I'd be a bit worried now.
However, no one knows what's going to happen. Let's hope for a true test, with no hard luck stories due to the large field. Still hoping that Tahiyra's class will see her through, bearing in mind that the race comes a couple of weeks earlier than ideal.
Good luck all.

Quite funny tahiyra lingering at 2.94...do I trust weld don't I

Mammas Girl is even weaker on here (out to 14/1), presumably because of the soft ground. Lezoo also quite weak in the market.

Well harry DKW is getting his excuses in early. Needs another 2 weeks he is quoted saying by the RP. I thought the horse would always come first. I'm on as hopefully DKW has been listening too much the supreme bullshit artist.

This horse will be ready jay. Just eases the pressure for weld. Been a plot all along imo

Thank you, James, for another 1000 Guineas post.

Your knowledge and insights are second to non.

Meditate is a stonking price at 9.6 here if the demise of AOB 2 charges yesterday was a one-off. Meditate and Tahiyra rfc.

Meditate into 7.2 now. last minute dosh from the boys, maybe.

Great race.

Very well done Penzance.

2 weeks that's the difference. Well done bin Suroor!

Heartbreaking for Tahiyra backers, but the front two have pulled a long way clear and they're very smart fillies. Congratulations to Mawj backers: I got her wrong, I underestimated her Meydan form. Were you on, penzance?

Well done penzance. You got the lot

A proper run race on better ground than yesterday where they all had every chance. If Weld is to be believed, Tahiyra not being 100% ready has probably cost her.

Lovely result.
Cheers

Tahiyra is 7/4 for Irish 1000G. Any taker?

Well done 'penzance'. The only horse with solid juvenile form after discounting AOB charges at Newmarket.

You do not think that Tahiyra had solid 2 year old form?

A slip. Any horse that could beat Meditate with authority is a very good horse; Meditate beat Mawj last season. The rest can stay at home.

I think AOB will send Meditate to Royal Ascot. I do not think he'd want to take on Tahiyra at The Curragh. Neither will I think Mawj will show in Ireland.

I will say one thing that was a great bit of riding by Murphy to intimidate the second at a vital stage. 2 very good fillies moving forward I’d say and no excuses here best filly won on the day

Best filly won on the day, yes. But there are reasons for thinking that Tahiyra will likely gain her revenge when they next meet. Tahiyra is sure to come on for that reappearance, she also didn't get off to the best of starts which meant she had a fair amount of ground to try to make up on the winner. She couldn't quite overhaul the winner, but she looks a certainty for the Irish Guineas if that's her next target. I would make her a shade of odds-on for that race if Mawj is an absentee. As a performance I would rate the 1000 Guineas a well-above-average renewal and a pound or two better than the 2000 - it was the best time performance on the Sunday card, whereas a couple of the heritage handicaps produced better time figures than the 2000 on Saturday - so with the sex allowance I also think Tahiyra would have a decent chance of beating Chaldean later this season.

Just my thoughts jock on the second was massively inferior to jock in the winner men v boys. As somebody else mentioned you cannot give that ground away and win I thought that was a shocker wonder what HH thinks. Everybody has seen all week out and with the pace or close to it sure Weld's previous stable jocks would have done better was disappointing and outridden that said winner might be better than what we think.

I think Mr Weld was "advised" to run; the pilot was "advised" to look after Tahiyra. I think Tahiyra was cruising - she was 1.76 in the Exchange - but outstayed by the winner who was race-fit.

I believe next duel it would be a comfortable win for Tahiyra at 7f or 8f.

Tahiyra traded at 1.2 in-running.

Wow! 1.2 is much shorter than when looked away from video here.

Well done to penzance and all other winners. September seems a long time ago now jamesp. Beaten half a length. Keep up the good work.
impossible 123 8th May 4.42pm post might well be very accurate. If the filly of DKW's was a Moyglare owned filly would she have ran ? In my opinion no. She's had a hard race now which was always a possibility. I would also agree with harry regarding Oisin. Do I think Oisin Would have won on either filly ? Probably. Saeed bin Suroor and his staff, (chutterblocked with Xjockeys), had the winner primed for this. Will she be as good again ? I have my doubts. Does anyone think Meditate will stay a true mile now ? Great thread, Great fun.

Tahiyra looks good value to me at 5/4 in Irish Guineas with SkyBet.  She looks highly likely to turn up, which you can't say about most of the other possibles.  She will be fitter and probably be in an easier race than at Newmarket.  Shame Betfair haven't got a market for Irish 1000 Gns yet.

'Sly' was 7/4 earlier. I'm surprised no market here either. The Exchange is so backward-looking. I believe they ought to be the 1st with a market as it's formulated by bookies, wannabe bookies and anyone with firm views/opinions about races.

Nothing for the French Guineas either last time I looked.

The Exchange is lazy. Other bookies have a market but not here. It's a known fact any entity in a monopolistic position promotes inferior products and services and discourages creativity and productivity.

Man City Specials (multiples) is available with bookies but suspended here for reason/s only known to Betfair. Bizarre!

That Man City special might be suspended during the
Game tonight,Inter v AC.

It's been suspended since 3rd/4th May.

Check out the same bets at Boylesport. The major difference there is the term "ONLY". I firmly believe Betfair has made a major error not inserting "ONLY" to indicate mutual exclusivity eg a Man City treble mean just that - a winner. And, not also implies (here) Man City winning two trophies is also a winner as it's the case here.

A voidance of all bets is a must now.

Jabaara, trained by Roger Varian made a very eye-catching debut at Newmarket on Saturday.
The maiden she won has be the starting place for Mawj and Catchet the last two years.
Bred to get the mile out of a Dubawi mare.