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06 Jul 22 21:27
Date Joined: 28 Jul 12
| Topic/replies: 9,264 | Blogger: gpz6316's blog
looks a perfect race for desert crown . As they pointed out they'll do Westover for toe also for freshness . The connections of Westover are making a mistake running him here imo . He should be mothballed till the niel imo
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Report A_T July 22, 2022 7:51 PM BST
I think you sometimes get results like TT's Arc because on that day it was the only horse that got the pace right - this would not have been planned but was just how the race panned-out. Not likely to be repeated. I think TT is most likely to be 5th or 6th
Report impossible123 July 22, 2022 9:51 PM BST
I say this is a poor renewal is because Desert Crown is unable to run; Westover has beaten nothing in Ireland; Mishriff has been beaten many times last season; Broome wins a very poor Gp 1 in Saint Cloud. The only exception is Emily Upjohn who was very unlucky at Epsom. Let's hope she does not only win but wins with authority.
Report penzance July 22, 2022 10:00 PM BST
Westover beat nothing?
He was 10L in front of the Oaks wnr.
Who beat Emily Upjohn.
Report brandyontherocks July 22, 2022 10:23 PM BST
Thanks for the input Figgis and Sandown.
Always respect your opinions.

For me it is only a small stakes races. To be honest it should be a no bet race. But I love the King George so I will play.

All of the runners have question marks against them.

Westover was an unlucky placed horse at Epsom. Bolted up in a very poor Irish Derby. A heavy shouldered looking horse, so no idea how he will cope with this faster ground.

Emily looked very good at York. But even though things went against her in the Oaks I still feel she should have beaten that lot. Tuesday did not enhance the form in Ireland.

Mishriff arguably is better over 10f but looked in very good health at Sandown.

The German horse is considered a mud lark. That may be true but if he can act on faster ground must have a chance at 14/1.

Small stakes on the German horse for me.
Report impossible123 July 22, 2022 10:31 PM BST
Piz Badile was last in France; Tuesday was not given a chance in Ireland. And, Emily Upjohn would have beaten Tuesday at Epsom but for that mishap where she did well not to come down, I believe.

Let's hope Emily Upjohn can atone and re-invigorate The Arc market post the scratching of Desert Crown.
Report gpz6316 July 22, 2022 10:47 PM BST
Absorbing all the comments , the one horse whom is going for it . Westover . Totally against where i thought the horse should go . Its fallen for him though hasn't it . Hes got to handle the fast ground , but , hes gonna give his running and will win pretty easy i reckon . yep its a fickle world . wont win the arc though as he left it here
Report paulo47 July 23, 2022 9:01 AM BST
Backed Westover for today and the Arc , 4s and 10s , nothing brilliant ,  but for me he is a horse who could be special and you need onside . Can always lay on the day if worried in Oct .
Report FELTFAIR July 23, 2022 10:23 AM BST
Backed Mishriff.
Report A_T July 23, 2022 10:47 AM BST
yes Mishriff for me too - it this was 10f he'd be favourite - seemed to the trip last year only beaten by a red-hot Derby winner

not convinced Westover or Emily are as good as Adayar June/July form

my worry for Mishriff is a bounce after a long layoff
Report A_T July 23, 2022 11:06 AM BST
*seemed to stay the trip
Report Figgis July 23, 2022 11:52 AM BST
I've seen the odd slower 3yo than Westover win the race. Maybe he can even improve again but even though he won decisively at the Curragh he looked pretty much all out to me. He can win with no regrets from me for not backing him. To see Emily Upjohn win without my cash would be a bit more galling. I backed her at Epsom and still think she should have won. I actually have a higher figure for her at York so I'm sure she's capable of a bit more than she showed in the Oaks. Nevertheless I think she'll probably need to improve again on the Musidora performance to win here. York was only a trial so you'd normally think she would, but I've watched the race a few times and I'm not entirely sure there's a lot more there. In the Oaks she also ended up having a harder race than she might have. Tuesday came out of the race and ran appallingly in the Irish Derby. That doesn't mean the same will happen with EU but it's a possibility. I won't be backing EU today.

There is a lot of talk about Mishriff being better over 10f, and I also was thinking that way at one stage last year as I was trying to get to grips with all the form. I now believe he definitely gets 12f as well as 10f. Even though today's race is all about how today's runners compare with each other, I also like to see how they compare historically with what is usually required to win the event. Since '85 on speed figures for 4yo+ horses specifically over 12f I have the four highest all having been recorded in this race, not the Arc. Marginally ahead was Harbinger, with three others tied on second. They were the winners Daylami, Dylan Thomas and the other one was Mishriff last year in second to the underrated Adayar.. The Eclipse second was still short of what I think he's capable of, but it was encouraging that he is getting close to that bigger performance. At Sandown they went slow early then went full pelt a little too far out. Also, as the jockey said, Mishriff may have been a tiny bit rusty after the layoff. He was also given a poorly judged ride, something the jockey wasn't as keen to admit.

I've always said that the 3yos get a generous weight allowance here and, even though it's not as silly as it used to be, I still believe that. Not one of those older horses I named could give 11lbs to the really top class 3yos of the past on the top of their game. If Mishriff runs his best today then it won't take a brilliant 3yo to beat him on these weight terms, but it'll take a very good one and I still think the 3yos have to show a bit more, so Mishriff is my only bet.
Report Millerracing67 July 23, 2022 1:37 PM BST
Backed Westover, granted a Gd pace (not certain?) he'll take the besting imo.
I'd have used a pacemaker for him tho, he's a strong stayer at the trip.
Report harry callaghan July 23, 2022 2:47 PM BST
A tricky betting heat and all with a chance, well the figures say they have.

It’s nice To go into the race with a confirmed pace in broome who basically has to make it a test to have any chance. I think he has improved this season, which is odd considering he is now 6. I have thought long and hard with him as his odds are big here after a nice campaign. He started last season well but his form then went off the boil, maybe they peaked him to early. He looks more straight forward now and enjoys the lead, an habitual slow starter he has began to get out the gate much better. I see him the 3 myself

I ended up having quite a decent bet on westover in the derby as saw him as the horse with most upside, the rider made a mess of it but his odds that day just lured me in. He should have the race run to suit here as he is a stamina horse. The Irish derby showed how much of a nice horse he is. The problem here is odds and as much as he was a good thing on paper in the Irish derby, it really did look a penalty kick. The filly who was well beaten I thought got done by a track bias to speed. She’d had a busy campaign as well. I’m afraid 13/8 just isn’t for me today but I will learn more with him. I always thought he’d just like a little cut in the ground but I could be wrong and today will answer this

Pyledriver will be interesting if the trainer can get him back. I don’t see

Mishriff is a top class horse but for me he hasn’t looked as good this season and although he got done in a slowly run eclipse it wasn’t as if he was really hitting the line strong, for me he just ran on, as much as he got a poor ride. He has a good chance here if he can just reproduce last years run. I just have a feeling he is slightly better with a long straight to grind it out and also slightly better left handed. We will see.

I’ve read plenty on here but I don’t buy it and I make Emily Upjohn a bet today.

The stumble at the start in the oaks was really against her, she does race a little on the bit and likes to be handy. Everything went against her in the oaks with a wide trip not helping off of slow fractions. Personally I didn’t think she was knocked about so do see more progress and I’ve handicapped her as a top class filly, so to be getting the allowances and finally some proper summer ground, I’ve got her to win comfortably here, so at 10/3 I’m getting what I want on a legitimate 13/8 chance, so I’m playing
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! July 23, 2022 3:41 PM BST
Report sageform July 23, 2022 3:42 PM BST
Yeehaa. Ridiculous price for a Coronation Cup winner. Three year oldds must be very poor.
Report harry callaghan July 23, 2022 3:43 PM BST
Wd winners. Got that wrong. Shame didn’t think they’d get him back. Laying well done enjoy
Report A_T July 23, 2022 3:45 PM BST
like to see the sectionals - Westover must have gone far too quick - Emily was pulling from the start and you could see her chances had gone - Mishriff as I feared probably a bit of a bounce after his reappearance
Report sageform July 23, 2022 3:45 PM BST
So pleased for William Muir. They have aimed high with the horse but he delivers.
Report Figgis July 23, 2022 3:46 PM BST
Not sure I remember anyone putting Pyledriver up before the race but well done any winners. Hands up, I thought he had the least chance of the lot and still can't find a case to make for him. Well done harry for at least thinking he could win if ready.
Report brandyontherocks July 23, 2022 3:55 PM BST
Well done Laying and Sage.

Great win for connections
Report penzance July 23, 2022 3:58 PM BST
Pyledriver great performance,where did that come from?
Westover well btn aswell as Emily Upjohn.Don't say much
for the 3yr olds.Hopeing Appleby gets Adayar back on the
Report Figgis July 23, 2022 4:02 PM BST

Any result poasible imo. Will have a few quid on Pyledriver at 40 plus on here

Very well done.
Report sageform July 23, 2022 4:30 PM BST
Sageform. July 18 1.16. Pyledriver might be worth a bet. 20.35. Pyledriver will lead so back to lay.
Report sageform July 23, 2022 4:33 PM BST
I never rated any of the three year olds so far this year so it was a case of the best value from the other 4. Gosdens in very poor form, Broome had a hard race at Ascot and the German horse was warming up for the Arc (which it might win again on soft) so that only left one!
Report harry callaghan July 23, 2022 4:35 PM BST
Your saying he is going to lead so a back to lay sageform? So you were a mile off
Report harry callaghan July 23, 2022 4:38 PM BST
Looking at the race I don’t get the ride on westover, why put the gun to his head, he never been ridden like that?
Report layingisthewayforward July 23, 2022 4:44 PM BST
Well that was pleasing. Agree it was a strange ride on Westover, could have just tucked in behind Broome. Oh well, I'm not complaining Laugh
Report A_T July 23, 2022 4:45 PM BST
looking at the times and sectionals compared to last year

overall time this year was 3 secs slower than last year - however the first 3 furlongs were faster so they went too quick early on hence the freakish result
Report brandyontherocks July 23, 2022 4:54 PM BST
Report penzance July 23, 2022 5:15 PM BST
No freak about that result,Pyledriver travelled well throughout
the race,the others just were'nt good enough.Had that won 2F out.
He did'nt scramble home either.
Report A_T July 23, 2022 5:21 PM BST
no it's a freak result - PD is no Mtoto there was nothing in his form to suggest he'd suddenly do this at 5yo - and he won't do anything similar again

fair dos though the best horse won on the day but the jockey got lucky by riding a more even pace
Report A_T July 23, 2022 5:22 PM BST
Looking at the race I don’t get the ride on westover, why put the gun to his head, he never been ridden like that?

Hornby must have been chuckling - Keane won't be riding that again
Report Figgis July 23, 2022 5:43 PM BST
So all along Pyledriver was 10 lengths better than Mishriff? 18 lengths better than Westover? 25 lengths better than Emily Upjohn but we all missed it and let him go off at 18/1? Crazy
Report penzance July 23, 2022 5:51 PM BST
Ive already posted where did that performance come from.
On the day he he was much the best.The difference is I give
the winning horse credit for winning.Unlike some.
Report A_T July 23, 2022 5:53 PM BST
this result is almost inexplicable - you can understand it in the Derby (e.g. Adayar) when so many horses are unexposed and improving for the trip and there is little collateral form to go on. but in this race there has not been such an unlikely winner in 50+ years

of course it's possible that at 5 years old PD has made amazing improvement since the Coronation Cup but for me the most likely explanation was they went too fast early on and PD ran the evenest sectionals - jockeys are generally hopeless judges of pace but by the law of averages someone will guess it right

if you think today represents the true merits of the horses best get on Pyledriver for the Arc he is 16-1
Report penzance July 23, 2022 5:55 PM BST
He was sat in just behind the pace & never looked
in any trouble.
Report A_T July 23, 2022 5:56 PM BST
The difference is I give the winning horse credit for winning.

the horse doesn't care he'll get his carrots whatever happens. the trainer is quoted now as saying he thought PD would win. God only knows how he knew that.
Report FOYLESWAR July 23, 2022 6:45 PM BST
2nd for the arc winner .........a win woulda been nice but some nice each way and place bets landed cant complain.well done any winners .
Report gpz6316 July 23, 2022 9:29 PM BST
well their we are a punting conundrum is solved , well done to the winners . A hard one to fathom
Report Sandown July 23, 2022 9:44 PM BST
No point in attempting to explain that race. Not just PD winning but the   also the poor showing of both 3 Yr olds at the same time. Even knowing the result I couldn't ever price the race to make any sense of the result. If all races were as unforecastable as this then no one other than layers  could make the game pay.
Report brandyontherocks July 23, 2022 9:50 PM BST
I still stand by the fact that all runners had question marks against them going into the race.

All 6 had reasons why they could win but possibly more reasons why they couldn't.

But to be strung out like a 3 mile chase is quite bizarre.
Report layingisthewayforward July 23, 2022 11:01 PM BST
A_T, your comments are a bit ridiculous imo. Biggest shock in 50 years? Really? He's a group 1 winner, 2nd and 4th before today. His price of 40/1 on the exchange yesterday was mental.
Report layingisthewayforward July 23, 2022 11:02 PM BST
There was no standout cert in the race. You could easily get 6 different winners if you ran that 6 different times.
Report A_T July 24, 2022 7:05 AM BST
A_T, your comments are a bit ridiculous imo. Biggest shock in 50 years? Really? He's a group 1 winner, 2nd and 4th before today. His price of 40/1 on the exchange yesterday was mental.

"in this race there has not been such an unlikely winner in 50+ years" was what I wrote - can you think of a bigger?

his price reflected what the world thought of his chances

There was no standout cert in the race. You could easily get 6 different winners if you ran that 6 different times.

agree with this
Report Figgis July 24, 2022 10:46 AM BST
I doubted the 3yos myself but yesterday they were beaten 18 and 25 lengths. I'm seeing comments that this proves they must be no good. Are people really suggesting that those horses ran their races yesterday?
Report brandyontherocks July 24, 2022 11:50 AM BST
I think it is obvious Westover did not run his race.
He was sweating before hand (which I think he did at Epsom)
And then ran with the choke out for the best part of a mile.
Report sageform July 24, 2022 2:21 PM BST
Can anyone produce some collateral form between 3yos and older horses this season that suggests that Westover or the filly had any chance? They were made favourites on 3yo form only which had no basis as it turned out. Not saying they are really as bad as they looked but I would not put any 3yos in the first 6 in the Arc. Mojo Star and Adayar might be well up to standard if fit so still plenty to prove for the first two yesterday.
Report Figgis July 24, 2022 2:58 PM BST
The same could be said about Pyledriver, a hard fought neck win over Al Aasy hardly suggested he had the comfortable beating of the Arc winner. The point is that whether the 3yos are top class or not they clearly didn't run anything like their true form, just as Workforce didn't in the same race a few years ago.
Report A_T July 24, 2022 3:17 PM BST
well 3yos finished 1st and 3rd in the Eclipse which is the only other race we've had so far at middle distance between the generations

Mojo Star and Adayar might be well up to standard if fit so still plenty to prove for the first two yesterday.

Bizarrely IMO Appleby is talking about the Champions Stakes in Ireland and Ascot for Adayar - I can't fathom this at all he's a 12f horse if ever I saw one. Probably the owners wanting to get a 10f win into him for promoting him as a stallion.
Report Gibberish July 24, 2022 3:20 PM BST
Brandy - "I still stand by the fact that all runners had question marks against them going into the race"

That's exactly how I saw it and I posted those views (using that precise comment about 'question marks') but
for some reason my musings didn't appear on the thread, which has been happening a lot recently according to
a few posters on here - I expected to wake up to a page full of strong opinions as I was quite scathing about
the race and the dubious 'worth' of what's supposedly the top 12f all-aged race in the UK.

It looks like my post has been deleted and I haven't got a clue why as there was nothing remotely controversial.
I did state that Pyledriver has to be the worst King George winner I'd ever seen and that the race had as
good as 'fell apart' though it was nice to see a small outfit break the group one dominance of the elites
with an admirable colt who's won fair & square.
Report A_T July 24, 2022 3:25 PM BST
talk of the St Leger now for Westover which should well and truly finish him off
Report penzance July 24, 2022 3:27 PM BST
I don't think Adayar lacks pace,he showed that
in last years Derby.Stable have a good yardstick
in Native Trail.The Eclipse was on his agenda
Report Figgis July 24, 2022 4:12 PM BST
A_T's point about the pace of the race is true. They all, including the winner and second, went a bit too fast early on, but the first two ran a bit more evenly overall. Nevertheless, some of the others were beaten too far for that to be the sole excuse. I think Pyledriver would've won whatever the pace, and most of the others were going to run below par for one reason or another. The uneven pace just exaggerated the extent they ran poorly, like running on heavy ground can do. As to my own bet, Mishriff, I think harry is right, he hasn't looked the same horse this year and maybe never will. I was hoping the Eclipse was a stepping stone to something better but I saw nothing encouraging about his run yesterday. He fell out of the stalls again and it's looking like his exploits have taken their toll. It may come back to bite me but I wouldn't consider backing him even at the shorter trip at York next time.

People were saying that Westover bolted up at the Curragh, but for me winning decisively isn't the same as winning easily. To my eye he was given a very hard race, therefore I wasn't totally surprised he wasn't on song. Being overly keen early or even before a race is a sign I've often noticed with horses that have recently had a hard race, probably due to anxiety rather than some perceived notion that they're keen to run. I had already said that Tuesday came out of the Oaks below par. People can say well the Oaks was no good anyway but the point is she obviously isn't as bad as she looked at the Curragh. Both her and Emily Upjohn were asked to run some very fast finishing splits at Epsom, and while I'm not saying I expected EU to under perform yesterday, I did say it wouldn't be a shock if she did.

That isn't to take anything away from Pyledriver's backers. The aim of the game is to back the best horse on the day, not the best horse overall. I thought any of the above horses running below form wasn't out of the question, but I thought it was big odds on all of them doing so together. As to how good a performance Pyledriver put up to win. Well despite the uneven pace he still managed to run a fair comparitive time. The whole race wasn't a complete pace collapse. I have Torquato Tasso only 2lbs below his Arc winning figure and Pyledriver up 7lbs, but maybe I just underrated him, as I didn't have strong view on his HK and UAE form. Certainly not the worst KG winning performance I've seen, but I rate him more in line with Conduit than the better winners. I'd say on that showing he could be placed in an Arc, but I won't be backing him.
Report FOYLESWAR July 24, 2022 7:06 PM BST
not saying the 3yos are no good both didnt run their race the point was where was the value ? doubts about the 3yos being good enough ,doubts around mishriffs stamina, broome rather exposed , i didnt consider pyledriver quite up to it. on price relative to chance the top 3 didnt offer any value in my opinion and so it proved .
Report FOYLESWAR July 24, 2022 7:09 PM BST
gibberish it has happened to me a lot ,i wrote a longish post out on another race and it didnt appear couldnt be arshed to write it pout again.
Report brandyontherocks July 24, 2022 7:55 PM BST
After watching the race a few times I think Moore was more concerned about ruining any chance the Juddmonte horse had than trying to the win the race himself.
Report penzance July 24, 2022 10:01 PM BST
Can't see that meself.Sacrifice his winning % of £700K.
Report brandyontherocks July 24, 2022 10:30 PM BST
It would be team orders if my theory is correct, Penzance.

I'm probably blowing in the wind.
Report Sandown July 25, 2022 12:14 PM BST
Any result can occur in horseracing, not just who wins but the order of finish.

It wasn't quite that the last shall be first and the first shall be last but pretty much. Just for fun I did a quick calculation of this happening based on the BF SP's and it came out at 1 chance in 50,000! Others may want to correct my maths but whatever, it was  pretty much of a very long longshot.

I don't think that we need to bother too much in trying to understand why the outcome was what it was, it's just a freak result to go with many others over the years.

The RPR given to PD was 125 (+3 on PB) the rest rated at -5 to - 56 vs PB. Fine, understandable that PD was raised but I don't believe a word of it if the sectionals are anything to go by.

A freak result.

As for the future, best to remember Workforce.
Report Sandown July 25, 2022 1:19 PM BST
By way of comparison, the field ran the first 5f in the same time as the sprinters on the card and around 4 seconds faster (24 lengths) to that point than the 12f races the previous day,the winner of one race being 99 rated. The  race was run in  the opposite fashion to the usual European style and it is worth asking the question whether the jockeys involved who set the pace were aware of what they were doing. Clocks in their heads couldn't be the description this time.

its not only slowly run races that produce odd results.
Report Sandown August 4, 2022 12:02 PM BST
I wanted to return to this race for a post-mortem given that this highly important race resulted in one of the worst collective forecasts by experienced race readers and the market in recent years.

There may be other examples but as this is the most recent, and fresh in our memory, we should try and learn from it. So, I have gone back over the pre-race assessments from the media and forums like this one, recovered the pre-race and post-race ATR TV coverage, looked at my own analysis of the race beforehand, to see if there are any clearer answers as to why, apart from a small handful of pundits who called it right, collectively we got this wrong big-time.

I say big-time because the horses finished almost precisely in the reverse order to the market prices at the off on BF, which on my calculations was about 1000 times less likely than the race finishing in precisely the order the market indicated.

To begin, here are the race summaries from TF and the RP.


Although the latest running of the most prestigious British all-aged middle-distance race lacked the sidelined Derby winner Desert Crown and the yet-to-reappear winner of this in 2021 Adayar, this still looked a King George line-up worthy of the name, one that more than made up in quality what it lacked in numbers, with a strong 3-y-o representation taking on high-class older rivals in top form, everything the race should be; it didn't work out like that though, neither of the 3-y-os running their race, 2 of the older runners clearly some way below form as well, only the winner seen to very best advantage in a contest run at an overly-strong pace, his performance one that wants assessing somewhat cautiously, though still a career best.


A huge anti-climax, with only two of the six giving anything like their true running and there being upwards of 8l back to the others, including Westover and Emily Upjohn, both of whom lost their race in the first half-mile by refusing to settle, with the early downhill run working against them. The pace was good, with Westover going faster than his rider wanted even before Broome applied some pressure from 6f out.

My interpretation of these summaries is more succinct. The 3 year old favourites didn't show up; the beneficiary was the solid Pyledriver who ran his best race. The German horse ran a solid Arc trial.

Examining the main possible reasons for the outcome

1. Westover and Emily Upjohn have been over-rated
Westover was impressive in winning the Irish Derby in an OK time  and was given an RPR of 124 for that +3 on his Epsom Derby form behind Desert Crown who was similarly impressive. Hard to argue with that.

Emily Upjohn had a RPR of 117 after a sh beating in the Oaks where she should have won. I cannot argue that was too high even allowing for Tuesday's subsequent poor run behind Westover. The KG market had them price at the off at 2.1 and 5.3 respectively which on my scale is 8lbs so I think that was fair.

2. The fast pace found out WO and EU
There is something in this as the early pace was too hot looking at the sectionals with the final splits showing that the pace left its mark even on the winner resulting in the pace profile looking more like an American dirt race rather than a European turf race.

Westover was looking very much on his toes in the paddock, a fact which was remarked on, but even an experience paddock judge like Jim McGrath opined that he wasn't too bothered as WO had behave like that before. WO had 2 handlers and was very jig joggy and showed signs of sweating on both neck and behind hind legs, warning signs. He went sown actively and from the start was pulling hard eventually disputing the lead.The mmarket did not reflect this before beforehand with no significant market drift. It's possible that he was still remembering his Curragh run and that he had not fully recovered from it. Personally, I couldn't extend his chance to cover what unfolded. He went out like a light when his chance had gone.

EU can have no excuse on the grounds of not being ready although having been teed up for the Irish Oaks its possible that she had lost her edge but her performance was even more dismal than WO and I can't use this as an excuse.

3. The ground was too fast for both of them
The ground was most definitely good to firm after a lengthy dry spell. WO gait was that of a horse who looked like he would handle softer ground better as it he hit the ground quite hard with a rounded action.EU had shown at Epsom that she handled soft ground very well. Both horses are very good physical specimens with EM not out of place against the colts. WO is a magnificent looking specimen. My view is that the ground played a large part in the poor performance of both.

In the circumstances, the German horse ran a fine race on ground that would have been far too fast for one which clearly relishes soft if not heavy ground, so he would look to have the Arc as his target where if it comes up soft, will have a major chance.

Of the other horses Mishriff ran as well as can be expected given that he is probably best at 10f and gave away the start. Broome ran to a reasonable level of form, ran up with the hot pace, and is probably a bit below this level.

Pyledriver is an admirably consistent animal. Whether he is worth an RPR of 125 (+3) is arguable but the rise is understandable in handicapping terms. This not meant as faint praise but at 5 I can't see him improving his level forr the Arv which he would most likely have to win the race.

In conclusion, this was a race where we should have anticipated that the potential improvers would in fact run way below form. We, being us as individuals and the market, didn't want to accept regression as a possibility let alone as a probability, and consequently the prices were way out.

For myself, I will try to remember that as with everything, assumptions can lead one to draw the wrong conclusions and therefore lead to wrong  forecasts. Take nothing for granted would be better than wishful thinking.

The result of this race will be pinned above my computer from now on.
Report Figgis August 4, 2022 12:39 PM BST
The result of this race will be pinned above my computer from now on

Sandown, fair enough, but my own view is that putting too much emphasis on the outcome of that particular race will only hamper any future analysis. Especially when it comes to being confident about those at the head of the markets. I was pretty confident about taking a fairly short price about Desert Crown in the Derby. However, I would have been way off as to my expectations of what might finish second or third. Should I care about that? Personally I don't. The King George is just one result, and there's no way of knowing if Pyledriver was overpriced and the others underpriced, or whether Pyledriver at 18/1 was winning his one in nineteen, like 18/1 shots are supposed to.
Report Sandown August 4, 2022 2:27 PM BST
Fair enough Figgis. I take your point. By and large I am happy with my methods and since I shifted my focus to improving my pricing strategy, my profits are much more consistent, but just occasionally results leave me speechless. The KG was one of those races. The main point for me, as I said, was not that Pyledriver won, something had to. It was that I just didn't calculate for both 3 yr olds bombing in the same race . The order of finish is fairly unusual but doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. I may be guilty of over-projecting sometimes but in this instance it would have taken more than a crystal ball to have foreseen this result.

Proof, if any more was needed, that chance events  are ever present in this game. The best horse doesn't always win the race!
Report Figgis August 4, 2022 3:58 PM BST
Sandown, I had already said beforehand that I wouldn't exactly have been surprised if Westover and Emily Upjohn regressed, and even though I backed Mishriff expecting/hoping for an improved effort I can't say it was a shock he didn't achieve it. As to Pyledriver improving, I thought it unlikely as there seemed no sign of it on the Coronation Cup form. Maybe he didn't improve at all at Ascot and the race fell apart, but I'm willing to believe it was a bit of both, as his time compares well with the other race on the round course. The chance of just one of those events mentioned happening was quite high in my view, but the chance of them all happening at once seemed big odds to me. There's a view that the result is entirely explained by the admittedly overly fast early pace, but I don't subscribe to that as the others were beaten too far, in my opinion.

I remember reading somewhere in a Timeform article once that in most races at least half the runners don't run to their best form. I'd agree with that and even suggest it's on the conservative side. What happened in the KG certainly isn't the norm, but in the same race a few years ago Harbinger won while not one of his opponents ran to form ( I still rated him highly). When Danedream won the Arc the other runners that were at least capable of giving her a race all put up a no show. Like you said earlier, thankfully such results are quite rare.
Report Figgis August 4, 2022 4:02 PM BST
*the others were beaten too far for that to be the sole reason, I ought to have said. I'm sure it caused them to be beaten further than they otherwise would've been.
Report Sandown August 5, 2022 11:01 AM BST
Figgis, it's intriguing that as far as I know, we haven't heard an explanation from either Beckett or Gosden for the poor performances of either WO or EU. Usually there is something offered, if only as damage limitation for reputations and consequently valuations. It really is only these two that should concern us although Mishriff was backed into 5/2 (3.34 BF) second favourite and had the excuse of a poor start but a fast pace 12f was never going to suit the horse anyway, although at 5/2 many thought it would do better than finish 11L behind the winner. Broome was given an aggressive ride and did too much but wasn't really expected by most.

Westover has no big race future entries which suggests that he is a doubtful runner for the moment whilst EU surely has no chance in the Arc and looks likely to be kept for F&M races. Both might do better with some autumn ground. Perhaps their zeniths have been reached?
Report Sandown August 5, 2022 11:08 AM BST
Correction. Elementary error of misidentification. Westover is still in the St Leger and Arc. Perhaps WO can emulate Workforce?
Report Figgis August 5, 2022 12:27 PM BST
Sandown, obviously I could be wrong but I still think Mishriff's KG second last year was at least as good as his International win, and that he gets the 12f. Like you say, the poor start didn't help, especially as they were sprinting the first few furlongs. So even though Doyle was mindful not to try to rush the horse into catching up, he still ended up doing far too much too early, much more than the others. I still think he was beaten too far for that to be the only reason. I backed him for the Eclipse and still think he should've won, but that form was still a long way from what he showed last year. In retrospect I think I was too willing to overlook the poor time of the Eclipse. I know they went slow then went a bit too fast too early, but they still ought to have put up a better comparative time than that. Years ago I backed Daylami for the KG because I believed the slowly run Coronation Cup that he won masked his true ability. I was looking for the same kind of thing after Mishriff's Eclipse run but obviously I was wrong this time. Last year when Gosden let him take his chance in the KG it was apparently after he'd been thriving at home. Unless we hear reports of some improved home gallops I couldn't fancy Mishriff next time, even back to 10f.

With Westover it's impossible to say if he's done for the season or if he can bounce back like Workforce. You never know whether a race is going to knacker a horse for a while or not, or which horses are more robust than others. On watching the Irish Derby I thought Westover was all out. I heard people say he won easily but if he had been challenged I don't think he had any more in the tank. I also thought similar when Workforce won his Derby (a better performance than Westover's Irish win obviously) and backed Harbinger against him next time. Like Westover, I don't think the yard had any answers for the poor showing at Ascot. I was more inclined to think he was probably done for the season but he proved me wrong by winning the Arc. Even if Westover does return to form it's likely he's going to need to improve again unless it's a poor renewal.
Report Figgis August 5, 2022 12:33 PM BST
Just thinking back, I think Workforce's connections may have blamed the fast ground at Ascot. However, for me they were just clutching for an excuse. Workforce's Derby win was in record time, partly because of it being a good performance but mainly due to the fast ground, which was certainly faster than at Ascot. His Arc win was on soft but it was no better a performance than Epsom.
Report Sandown August 5, 2022 10:45 PM BST
To win the Derby so impressively, breaking Lammtarra's track record in the process, on only his third racecourse start clearly took a bit out of Workforce, who missed the Irish Derby and headed straight here. There were many hoping, and indeed some expecting, a HARBINGER-like performance from the 3yo, as only last month it was he who looked the superstar. However, there were slight concerns about him going this way round, considering what happened with the bit slipping through his mouth in the Dante, and the Epsom form could have worked out better, with Buzzword in the German Derby being the only subsequent victor from the beaten horses. The ground was also a potential concern, and when it became clear that he hadn't settled as well as Ryan Moore would have liked in tracking the pacesetter, it was always doubtful we were going to see a repeat of his Epsom heroics. He had issues with the home bend, not looking at all comfortable turning right, and he just never picked up once asked to stretch, being beaten over 2f out and slowly fading. This was a shadow of the horse we saw early in June and it's hoped Stoute can give him the necessary care to get him back to his best.

In what was a rough race, Ryan Moore, who, despite being drawn in stall eight, managed to bag a rail position towards the back of the pack, threaded a passage through on the Derby winner WORKFORCE and, in a final-furlong duel with the Japanese raider Nakayama Festa, proved the stronger jockey, and his mount just saw it out the better to give Sir Michael Stoute his first winner of the race. Although a brilliant winner of the Derby, WORKFORCE had run a stinker in the King George afterwards, and, with no explanation forthcoming for that defeat and little news on his wellbeing since, he came here with something to prove, not least his ability to handle soft ground. Despite being one of the least experienced in the line-up, he bravely quickened up between horses 2f out, soon after which he appeared to give Lope De Vega a bump (head-on camera showed him to be not at fault, confirmed in the subsequent stewards' inquiry), and then he settled down to battle it out with the runner-up inside the last. Credit goes to his trainer for getting him back to his best after Ascot, and, given how lightly raced he is one would imagine that there could be even better to come from him as a 4-y-o, although if history is any guide it'll be a pleasant surprise if he stays in training.

RP analysis  after the Derby and the Arc. Essentially, no firm evidence or opinion from the stable for the contrasting performances. We are left to make up our own minds.
Report Figgis August 6, 2022 12:13 AM BST
"We don't put them together at home, so I had no idea which of them had the best chance today," Sir Michael Stoute, winning the race for the second year running and the fifth time in all, said. "We knew Harbinger had progressed since the Hardwicke [Stakes at Royal Ascot] and he just travelled so well.

"Workforce was a little bit too keen, he just didn't relax enough today and I think that the ground may just have been a bit too fast for him. But you have to remember that it was only his fourth run today, and make no mistake, he will bounce back."

Stoute mentioned the ground but I think really he knew Workforce just wasn't the same horse that day. The keenness mentioned is often a sign shown after a horse last had a hard race and probably hasn't recovered. Stoute was certainly right about him bouncing back.
Report Figgis August 7, 2022 12:23 AM BST
Sandown, actually I may have been too hasty saying I wouldn't back Pyledriver for the Arc. There's still time for shape of the race to change, but looking at it right now the only horse I would want to back is Pyledriver. It's easy to fall into the habit of looking for a real star for the race, but looking at the last 3 Arc winners, I have Pyledriver's new mark only 1lb behind Waldgeist's KG effort and I have him higher than the last 2 Arc winners. I also have him ahead of Alpinista's latest win. I have his KG win up 7lbs on anything he did before and would expect him to get close to that effort once more this season. It has to be a plus that he's now being specifically trained for Longchamp, rather than expending fuel along the way in races like the International or Irish Champion. For me, he's always seemed to need a bit of time between his best efforts anyway. I won't be backing him ante post now, but depending on how things pan out I might end up backing him nearer the time.
Report Sandown August 10, 2022 10:57 AM BST
Figgis. The record of older horses (5+) in the Arc is a great negative for me. The race hasn't been won by a horse older than 4 in the past 20 years (Marienbard the last) and overall their record is just 26% of what you would expect. We have debated why this is so at length but I would have to have either a very good case or a large price (preferably both) to go against that stat.

This puts a negative against Pyledriver  (17.0 ) and Torquator Tasso (9.0)  Apinista (11.0) who are 2nd, 3rd, 4th in the A/P market currently behind Titleholder.

With the drought in the UK looking to continue I wonder if this year we can consider that the going in Paris may be on the fast side this year rather than soft, in which case that will not suit TT either.

The unknown factor currently is whether Luxembourg will be aimed at the race as if he shows up he could have a major chance . We may know more after the weekend.
Report A_T August 10, 2022 11:22 AM BST
Waldgeist was 5
Report Sandown August 10, 2022 3:02 PM BST
You are, of course, correct AT. My error.   That improves the figures for 5+ to 34% of expected.
Report Figgis August 10, 2022 4:57 PM BST
There's no special reason why 5yos have a poor record and it's all easily explained. Very few really top class middle distance horses are kept in training at that age, generally it's the ones that are just below. So then you need to be hoping for one that improves at the age of 5. On the whole, most horses don't continue to improve at that age, but a few do, some substantially. Added to that, most horses fitting that description will have been targeted at the midsummer Gp1s, leaving little in the tank for the autumn. I know this year's King George was unsatisfactory for many of us, but on the speed figure Pyledriver put up I'm willing to believe he has improved this year. He's also going to be rested and aimed at the Arc. So for me, the only reason he won't at least figure in the finish is that there are runners better than him. It remains to be seen what happens at York and Leopardstown but at the moment I can't see any likely runners that have put up a better performance recently. The last 2 winners of the race were no better than Pyledriver, with Waldgeist only marginally so. The French runners again look absolutely crap. It's a shame how their racing is going down the tubes.
Report Sandown August 10, 2022 6:06 PM BST
Figgis. Since 1949, the older winners have all been double figure prices Waldgeist (13/1) Marienbard (16/1) Tony Bin (14/1) Star Appeal (119/1) indicating that on the day better cases were held by others,which given as you say that it is most likely that very little improvement was shown,  most likely the better fancied horses didn't live up to expectations for whatever reason. Certainly the ground might have been unsuitable in some cases when it came up heavy or very firm.
Report brandyontherocks August 10, 2022 6:54 PM BST
Pyledriver looked unlucky to me in Dubai where he should have been much closer, and his romp at Ascot does imply he is still improving.
I will happily watch him win the Arc without my money being on him.
Luxembourg runs this weekend with the Irish Champion being proposed as his next target. Quite a big ask in my opinion to return from injury to go to the Curragh and then the Arc.
Onesto and Al Hakheem are the two 3 year olds I am interested for Longchamp
Report A_T August 10, 2022 6:58 PM BST
waldgeist and tony bin pipped other 5yos (enable and mtoto)

treve left her race behind her in the vermeille

i don't believe there's any special reason why 5yos don't win the arc very often other than there aren't many good 5yos around - best horses are usually retired by then

the king george went 20 years without a winner older than 4
Report Sandown August 10, 2022 7:45 PM BST
i don't believe there's any special reason why 5yos don't win the arc very often other than there aren't many good 5yos around - best horses are usually retired by then

Exactly!  So, you need a) a very  good older horse  b) with no very good younger horses capable of improvement...and some help from the ground or in-running.

There's the explanation.
Report Figgis August 10, 2022 9:22 PM BST
The thing this year, though, is that looking at the likely Arc field there really isn't any top class 3yo or 4yo in form. In a good year I wouldn't be considering Pyledriver as a possible winner, which is why I dismissed him earlier saying placed at best. I don't remember looking at an Arc market at this stage and being so underwhelmed. Like I said, maybe it will change after York or Leopardstown.
Report Sandown August 10, 2022 9:49 PM BST
Not forgetting the French Arc trials which have provided the highest number of eventual Arc winners.
Report Figgis August 10, 2022 9:54 PM BST
Sandown, maybe so, but we're in a different era of French racing now. Some of their Gp1s are absolutely dire.
Report A_T August 10, 2022 10:03 PM BST
Not forgetting the French Arc trials which have provided the highest number of eventual Arc winners.

you'd expect that given there are 3 separate races.

and is any one of them a better indicator than the king george?

the prix foy for instance - I see one arc winner (waldgeist) in 40 years which is a terrible stat for a course and distance trial 3 weeks before the arc. the vermeille not much better 2 in 40 years.

also Sagace was first past the post as a 5yo - if you count him the winner what does that do to your 5yo figures?
Report Sandown August 11, 2022 10:53 AM BST
I posted this on July 12 AT in case  you have had a loss of memory

Any assessment of the Arc must take into account a few vital stats

1. France has won the race 68 times, GB 15,  Ireland 8 Italy 6 Germany 3.

2. The winners came from the 3 French trial days 25 times, Irish Champion 7 King George  4

3. Since 1949 3yr olds have won 43 races(60%) from 51% of runners, 4 yr old 27 wins (38%) from 33% of runners, older horse 3 times (4%) from 16% of runners.
I think the place to start any debate has to take these facts into account. Whoever wins the KG this year, especially if they go straight to the Arc without another run, is not going to be the most probable winner!

With the exception of the older horses figure which should be won 4 times not 3 nothing has changed. The French races have produced 6 times the KG when that was the last race so I am not saying that the KG has a poor record, but I am saying that it is important to point out that the French trials can be critical. This was intended to balance Figgis's statement that his view might change after York and Leopardstown.

With regard to the Sagace reference, I can only say that by using the "what if" argument  stats  anyway you personally like but the record books will show that Sagace may have been first past the post but he was disqualified.

Anyway, in reponse to your question, what does that do "my" figures I think you are capable of working that out for yourself. It changes the % figure very slightly but not the main point which is that older horses have significantly inferior record to younger horses. You are entitled to interpret stats anyway you like but not to change what is fact.
Report Sandown August 11, 2022 11:06 AM BST
we're in a different era of French racing now. Some of their Gp1s are absolutely dire.

Figgis. Maybe so, but that is an opinion. As for winning the Arc, the record shows that in the 80's the French 6/10 runnings, in the 90's the French won 9/10 runnings, 5/10 in the 00's and  5/11 in the past 11 years. If their standard has dropped, it hasn't really changed their record in the Arc. Perhaps its because that race is what they primarily target.
Report A_T August 11, 2022 11:13 AM BST
well you need to start by getting the facts correct. The King George winner has provided that Arc winner 7 times.

Mill Reef
Dancing Brave
Dylan Thomas

as for Whoever wins the KG this year, especially if they go straight to the Arc without another run, is not going to be the most probable winner!

which race will provide a more probable winner? Only the Prix Niel as far as I can see (8 winners) - so it's slightly more probably than the KG but not much in it.
Report Figgis August 11, 2022 11:25 AM BST
5/11 in the past 11 years

I suppose it depends on your definition of era. Treve won it 8 and 9 years ago, a top class filly no doubt and I wouldn't say French racing had hit the skids back then. Take a look at the last 7 years, French racing has seriously declined and shows no sign of an upturn. I'm sure they'll turn out the occasional top notcher, but they're not the force they once were.
Report Figgis August 11, 2022 11:26 AM BST
Sottsass being the worst winner in those last 7 years, in my view.
Report Sandown August 11, 2022 6:25 PM BST
well you need to start by getting the facts correct. The King George winner has provided that Arc winner 7 times.

With respect AT you need to understand my point first before you criticise it which is NOT which race has provided the (most) winners of the Arc but FROM WHICH PRIOR RACES DID THE WINNER MOST OFTEN COME FROM. Not the same thing at all.

In neither of Ribot's Arc wins did he prep in the KG PRIOR to the Arc.

Dancing Brave ran and won the Select Stakes as his prep.

Dylan Thomas prepped in the Irish Champion Stakes which he won as his prep for the Arc.

Enable won the Yorkshire Oaks as her prep race for her first Arc win and the September Stakes prior to he second Arc win.

That leaves you with Ballymoss, Lammtarra and  Mill Reef as winners who came directly from the KG as winners of the KG.
Report Sandown August 11, 2022 6:41 PM BST
Figgis. I agree that the record of French runners in the Arc in the past 7 years isn't as good as when Treve and  Zarkava were around for example, and certainly they have little at the top end of this years market, but my point is that they always take the race seriously and should never be overlooked, especially from stables like Fabre. Their longterm record speaks to that.

The French Arc trials remain an important pointer to the outcome of the Arc even if they do not provide the actual winner this year. But they might.
Report Figgis August 11, 2022 6:54 PM BST
Firstly, we don't know if Pyledriver will take in a prep before the Arc. Secondly, it's hardly surprising that not many horses didn't prep in the KG directly before the Arc, there's about 10 weeks between them, and most connections of a KG winner will have other races in mind beforehand. Especially as UK/Ire yards have provided the vast majority of KG winners, and they've generally been more focused on races this side of the channel. You could actually suggest that it is this precise lack of specific targeting that has made winning both races more difficult to achieve. Adayar had a problem after winning the KG and you'd think that would usually be the reason for a horse not having a run from July to October. However, this is entirely different, as if Pyledriver doesn't take in a prep it will be because that's the plan. In this day and age is there any reason a trainer can't get a horse fit enough for a race like the Arc without taking in a prep? Not that I know of. And some of those Arc trials are run so slowly that they probably enhance fitness even less than some good home gallops.

So there's no logical reason why having won the KG will be a big obstacle in this particular case. Otherwise we could produce meaningless stats for other runnings. No winner had won the Select Stakes prior to the Arc until DB, no winner had won the Yorkshire Oaks until Enable, etc
Report A_T August 11, 2022 6:54 PM BST
how many King George winners have gone straight to the Arc? Failures I can think of Generous and Adayar - maybe Ela Mana Mou? even if it's only 3 from 12 that have won the Arc I suspect that holds up as well as any other "prep race".
Report penzance August 11, 2022 6:59 PM BST
Plus Workforce won the Arc,although he was btn @Ascot.
Report A_T August 11, 2022 7:01 PM BST
i say 3 from 12 - that's just a guess - I can only actually find 6 horses that have attempted it and 3 have won. there may be more but if there isn't then a 50% strike rate is very impressive. perhaps we can say

Whoever wins the KG this year, especially if they go straight to the Arc without another run, is going to be the most probable winner!
Report Sandown August 11, 2022 7:35 PM BST
Just to be accurate. If we are looking for the winner of the KG to win the Arc in the same year then 36 have tried, 7 have won the Arc (19.4%) 11 have been placed (30.6%) and 18 have been unplaced (50.0). Now that is not a bad record but AT's own list demonstrates that  in the main the winners were top class.

There have also been some pretty good losers and quite a few at the front of the market.

The fact remains that winning the KG is in itself a top class performance which may take a lot out of the horse. As Noel Murless and Henry Cecil are both on record as saying, you can only get a horse to maximum peak once in the season. That is not to say that it can't be done but it does take an exceptionally good horse and a tough one at that.

Pyledriver has also had 18 races to date so it is unlikely that he will show  much improvement.If you are interested in validating this age/improvement issue I suggest that you search for "The Effect of Age on Thoroughbred Racing Performance" published 29/1/11 where it states that the typical decline after the age of 4.5 years is 9.5 lengths for routes. My own research points to the same conclusion, i.e that in the main performance declines.
Report Figgis August 11, 2022 8:29 PM BST
I'd be very surprised if Pyledriver will improve again from the KG to the Arc, but the point is will he need to? I'll keep things to this millennium, so since 2000 nearly every 3yo that won the Arc was either a stand out or at least fairly obvious fancy. That isn't to say I backed most of them, of course I didn't as I didn't think they were all value, but nearly all had strong form credentials and were quite short in the market. The only exception was Danedream, but she had been a very impressive winner, it's just that most of us either couldn't get a handle on the German form or were dismissive of it. Some of the 4yos had very strong form in the book, but when there was no standout it has been shown that you don't exactly need to be amongst the best horses of the season to win. I'd like to know where are these top class runners that a 5yo King George winner is inferior to?
Report Sandown August 11, 2022 9:00 PM BST
Figgis. We're still 7 weeks away from the Arc so much can happen.There are 2 at the front of the market at 9..0 so its wide open. Nothing yet dominates the betting. Pyledriver at 17.5 is probably about right but I'd need its chance to be about 9.0 to get involved now so like you its a no play for me at present. There is still the possibility that a 3/4 year old will show up. Vadeni could yet become a runner or Luxembourg. There are also a lot of older horses in the betting. It has the feel of a race where an outsider could get involved. Whether PD needs to improve is an open question that can't be answered yet imo.
Report Figgis August 11, 2022 9:32 PM BST
Sandown, yes there's still time but at the moment it's looking odds against a really outstanding performer emerging. Admittedly I wouldn't have wanted a bean on Found until she really upped her form in the Irish Champion Stakes, so I know that anything could happen in the run up to October. As to Luxembourg, it's not impossible he could have improved during the break. I remember Suave Dancer improving a good few pounds when he ran at Leopardstown, but I'd argue his earlier form was still better than Luxembourg's so O'Brien's horse will really need to step up. We'll see, but as it stands I think a solid Gp2 performer could be good enough to win.
Report impossible123 August 12, 2022 4:59 PM BST
No bet for me unless Luxembourg/Emily Upjohn/Desert Crown are in the line-up. I'm not interested in the older horses for this Arc.
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