Horse Antepost
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I've just posted this on the Derby thread but think it worthwhile to repeat on a new thread as the two horses have a virtually identical breeding and record. Food for thought at the very least.
Comparative quotes, ratings, times Source Racing Post
DERRINSTOWN 2021
This race hasn't had a major bearing on the Derby in recent years, with High Chaparral the last to do the double in 2002. However, there have been few winners as impressive as the winner since and he was made a best-priced 7-4 for Epsom.
BOLSHOI BALLET is very uncomplicated, quickens, relaxes. We always loved him. He travelled to France last year in ground that we knew he wouldn't like but we wanted to travel him for experience. We are delighted with that and we couldn't have asked for any more from him. There was an even pace which was great. He quickened well - Aidan O'Brien, trainer.
BOLSHOI BALLET made mincemeat of this field, tracking the pace-setter before kicking for home in the straight. He soon quickened clear and sustained that momentum all the way to the line, suggesting that another 2f at Epsom won't be a problem. This very likeable colt has been a steady improver in his previous four starts, with all three of his wins now coming here, including the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes last time, which sees him become the ninth horse to complete that double since the turn of the century
TS 104 RPR 117 Going Good time 127.37 Last 2F 24.8 Sire:Galileo (IRE) (11.2f)
Dam:Alta Anna (FR)
Dam's Sire:Anabaa (USA) (8.3f)
Breeder:Lynch-Bages & Rhinestone Bloodstock
05Jun21
Eps C13yG1 638K 1m4f GS 9-0 7/11 btn 17L Adayar 9-0 11/8F R L Moore OR117 TS80 RPR97
Derby
DERRINSTOWN 2022
STONE AGE was very impressive at Navan, and he's put it together well now. I think today's trial was a good race, and I think he will probably improve again. He's a very exciting colt - Ryan Moore, jockey.
STONE AGE simply destroyed this field to continue a week of domination for Ballydoyle. He was in front the whole way and really galloped on strongly to secure a commanding success. He shaped like a proper Derby contender and 1m4f should suit him. He had decent form as a juvenile and perhaps just needed a season to develop as a lot of his sire's progeny do. He beat some good rivals here, and he has been slashed into 3-1 for the Derby on back of this rout.
TS 88 RPR 117 Time 128.25 Going Good Last 2 Furlongs 24.5 secs Breeding Sire:Galileo (IRE) (11.2f)
Dam:Bonanza Creek (IRE)
Dam's Sire:Anabaa (USA) (8.3f)
impossible123 09 May 22 22:30
'gpz6316', Moore was really getting him going despite on top from 2f out. I think Moore was trying to educate him rather than the horse having a hard race. I also think Stone Age was not stopping at the line either. If anything I thought Moore had some difficulty trying to pull him up.
gpz6316 09 May 22 22:13
stone age had a hard race , he can only reproduce or more likely regress . piz badile must also have been feeling it or he,d have run in the derrinstown as it was . So their it is derby winner is walk of stars
gpz6316 09 May 22 21:35
I have it between walk of stars whom will progress past united nations and piz badile . Dessert crown has already run out of time imo for the derby , not enough experience and magisterial looks great on paper , but , was running right handed and was close to being run down at sandown , but , for frankies nouse to take the ground . The one with the potential is walk of stars he could really come on
Comparative quotes, ratings, times Source Racing Post
DERRINSTOWN 2021
This race hasn't had a major bearing on the Derby in recent years, with High Chaparral the last to do the double in 2002. However, there have been few winners as impressive as the winner since and he was made a best-priced 7-4 for Epsom.
BOLSHOI BALLET is very uncomplicated, quickens, relaxes. We always loved him. He travelled to France last year in ground that we knew he wouldn't like but we wanted to travel him for experience. We are delighted with that and we couldn't have asked for any more from him. There was an even pace which was great. He quickened well - Aidan O'Brien, trainer.
BOLSHOI BALLET made mincemeat of this field, tracking the pace-setter before kicking for home in the straight. He soon quickened clear and sustained that momentum all the way to the line, suggesting that another 2f at Epsom won't be a problem. This very likeable colt has been a steady improver in his previous four starts, with all three of his wins now coming here, including the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes last time, which sees him become the ninth horse to complete that double since the turn of the century
TS 104 RPR 117 Going Good time 127.37 Last 2F 24.8 Sire:Galileo (IRE) (11.2f)
Dam:Alta Anna (FR)
Dam's Sire:Anabaa (USA) (8.3f)
Breeder:Lynch-Bages & Rhinestone Bloodstock
05Jun21
Eps C13yG1 638K 1m4f GS 9-0 7/11 btn 17L Adayar 9-0 11/8F R L Moore OR117 TS80 RPR97
Derby
DERRINSTOWN 2022
STONE AGE was very impressive at Navan, and he's put it together well now. I think today's trial was a good race, and I think he will probably improve again. He's a very exciting colt - Ryan Moore, jockey.
STONE AGE simply destroyed this field to continue a week of domination for Ballydoyle. He was in front the whole way and really galloped on strongly to secure a commanding success. He shaped like a proper Derby contender and 1m4f should suit him. He had decent form as a juvenile and perhaps just needed a season to develop as a lot of his sire's progeny do. He beat some good rivals here, and he has been slashed into 3-1 for the Derby on back of this rout.
TS 88 RPR 117 Time 128.25 Going Good Last 2 Furlongs 24.5 secs Breeding Sire:Galileo (IRE) (11.2f)
Dam:Bonanza Creek (IRE)
Dam's Sire:Anabaa (USA) (8.3f)
impossible123 09 May 22 22:30
'gpz6316', Moore was really getting him going despite on top from 2f out. I think Moore was trying to educate him rather than the horse having a hard race. I also think Stone Age was not stopping at the line either. If anything I thought Moore had some difficulty trying to pull him up.
gpz6316 09 May 22 22:13
stone age had a hard race , he can only reproduce or more likely regress . piz badile must also have been feeling it or he,d have run in the derrinstown as it was . So their it is derby winner is walk of stars
gpz6316 09 May 22 21:35
I have it between walk of stars whom will progress past united nations and piz badile . Dessert crown has already run out of time imo for the derby , not enough experience and magisterial looks great on paper , but , was running right handed and was close to being run down at sandown , but , for frankies nouse to take the ground . The one with the potential is walk of stars he could really come on
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NB quotes from impossible 123 and gpz6316 copied by mistake
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how many 3yo champions colts can Coolmore have at one time? Last year it was BB and High Definition who were the hyped horses - I think they've won one weak American G1 between them since Spring 2021.
if Ballydoyle win the Derby this year i think it will be a Wings of Eagles/Serpentine type rather than a Galileo/Australia. i.e a horse that goes on to do nothing else of note after Epsom. look at the ones Moore's not riding. |
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the way Walk of Stars hangs right I can't see how he can win at Epsom.
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Here is the Dosage data on both horses. Not surprisingly, given that they both have Galileo as sire and Anabaa as dam sire, they are very much alike.
You couldn't say for sure that the breeding does not say 12f but given that Anabaa never won beyond 6.5f (never raced over further than 7f) there must be more than a doubt that Stone Age will stay 12f especially as Bolshoi Ballet ran 3 times over 12f and was beaten a total of 29 lengths. BOLSHOI BALLET (IRE) b. C, 2018 {8-f} DP = 5-2-19-12-0 (38) DI = 0.77 CD = 0.00 STONE AGE (IRE) b. C, 2019 {1-x} DP = 4-2-20-12-0 (38) DI = 0.73 CD = -0.05 - |
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Sandown, for me if he doesn't win I think it's more likely he just won't be fast enough rather than him not staying. I suppose you never really know until they do it but on racecourse evidence so far I'd say he's a likely stayer.
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Although if asked to go a faster pace than he's comfortable with then yes no surprise if he weakens.
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Figgis. Agree you never know whether any horse will stay further and the Derby pace does usually require abundant stamina as well as speed. Making SA a 3.5 fav given the almost identical pedigree of Bolshoi Ballet last year , does rather fly in the face of the evidence, does it not? I haven't been impressed on the figures for anything yet now that Luxembourg is out, have you? It leaves the door open perhaps for Stoute's horse on Thursday assuming he makes the necessary improvement. The support for him suggests optimism for that.
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Sandown, I don't know what happened with BB last year. I didn't have his trial win particularly high but I thought he would be thereabouts if it was a weak renewal. In the end he wouldn't have got near Adayar anyway but I'm sure he didn't run his race and even though he won at Belmont he seemed to lose his way for the rest of the season.
No I don't have anything that stands out. My fastest two are Stone Age and Changingoftheguard. I think either one could just about win a poor/slow Derby, but would have to be the weakest Derby for years. The thing is you don't always know which are going to be the weak ones. I thought last year's would be but ended up rating the winner highly. In the year of Kris Kin I actually had him on the same figure I have Stone Age on now, it was my highest figure going into the race but I thought something (Alamshar) would probably improve past him. I was at Haydock on the day watching on the big screen. As they passed the post I was asking myself how I'd talked myself into backing a lower figure horse at a shorter price than my highest rated  . KK had been available at an even bigger price until, if I remember rightly, a Pricewise inspired plunge. So there was no excuse not to back him.Anyway, the situation is similar here but with the crucial difference that there is no value at all in SA's price. And yes I'm hoping to see something better in the Dante. The Stoute horse could be anything, as the cliche goes. I don't know how much his price shortening is due to a lack of opposition or genuine belief in him. From reading some bookies comments it sounds more the former than the latter, but the stable report seems encouraging. |
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Bolshoi Ballet got a struck into during last years Derby and had a gash which needed treatment. (He did seem to drop back quickly during the race.) I sat out the Belmont Derby to see if he had recovered then, when he looked OK, I backed him next time...to my cost.
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.Marksman, yes I was forgetting that about BB. Just to oneup you on the mug bet front, I later backed Ange Gabriel in a double to win the GPDSC, but deserted Alamshar and doubled him up with Dalakhani at a short price
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The conclusion which I have drawn after looking at the comparison is just how can anyone back SA at the current AP odds knowing that his very close relative clearly was much better at 10f , and who also received the same degree of hype prior to the Derby with many confident that the horse would stay 12f?
This is not to say that the horse can't win at Epsom, but even without the stamina doubt , his figures just do not make him a standout to win the Derby. |
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Sandown, how impressed were you with Desert Crown? On that run I have him the only runner this season to have hit the benchmark I'm looking to see for an average Derby winner. However, he only just makes the cut. I know we were both on Pour Moi in the year he won, and I have this horse on the same mark. The big difference though is Pour Moi was a far bigger price before shortening leading up to the race. Also, to my eye Pour Moi won his trial a little bit easier. In the end he won the Derby narrowly. I definitely have no interest in taking this sort of price ante post but I probably will back him on the day. As for the main two O'Brien contenders, well maybe they can improve to bridge the gap, or maybe I've just underrated them, but I'm glad to let either of them win without carrying my money.
If I take last season's form into account then another O'Brien runner makes the cut. Point Lonsdale, a horse I've already stated had never shown he was fast enough for a Guineas, but a possibly moderate Derby is a different proposition. Strictly on speed figures I actually have him 1lb ahead of Desert Crown. Not that I would bank on a difference as marginal as 1lb, and Desert Crown may or may not improve a little on his first run of the season. Even allowing for the fact that PL was never fast enough for a Guineas, he was still disappointing, but he may come on for that and it's certainly too soon to write him off over middle distances. As usual with the yard a market move will be the best guide to how he's doing going into the race. Anyway, they are the only two I am considering backing. |
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Nice post Fig
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Brandyontherocks, how do you see it at this stage?
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I have tried to narrow down my betting the last couple of years and only bet on graded jumps racing now.
Still watch all of it but don't get financially involved. Found it impossible to have an opinion on so much racing. I was impressed by the Stoute horse at York. For such an inexperienced horse he did it very well and surely has more to come. As always ny of the O'brien battalion could make huge strides between their trial and the big race itself. I think Lammtarra was the last winner I had in this race so not really the person to ask!!! |
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Always enjoy reading the time figure boys
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Ah right. I cut out the jumps betting for similar reasons, too much to follow.
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I gave up on this forum some time ago, except for the Derby and Arc threads, so apologies Figgis for my delayed response.
On the Derby front, like you, I do not have even goodish time figures on anything really, although I do think that Desert Crown looks like the best we have seen so far by some way, and on collateral form figures (RPR 120) he improved a lot from his first run (+26lb). As that was just his second run and with Stoute suggesting that the horse was only just ready for York, he most likely will come on again. He looked as though he will be suited by the 12f. I have my doubts as I have already stated about Stone Age at 12f but I cannot dismiss him without more evidence. At the prices,3.2 for DC on the day would be value but although I have backed him at bigger prices if he wins it will only just cover my loss on Luxembourg who was my main AP bet. If he he is 2.5 or bigger on the day I will back him him again. On the Oaks front, Emily Upjohn is a standout for me, although once again I do not have a top class time figure for her but on collateral form she looks to have reached the requires standard for the rac already. She looks all over a 12f horse so I would be quite confident. She is in my AP book but for very little money. The days of serious money AP have long gone with the closing of credit accounts and the absence of strong exchange AP markets I am forced to play day of race. As with DC in the Derby, if EU is 2.5 or better on the day I will back her again. |
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Regarding Pour Moi,I had really good figures for the horse, much better than DC, and I was pretty confident, although the ride that Barzelona gave the horse had me biting my fingernails right up to the line. As for him standing up in the stirrups before crossing the line, well.......
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Sandown, agreed about Emily Upjohn. Surprised though that you don't have a top class figure for her. I have her on the same figure I had Ouija Board on for her Pretty Polly win. Unfortunately EU was nothing like the same price (12/1) after her trial win. I expect EU to win very comfortably. Whereas I see DC winning narrowly and probably not doing much afterwards. Unless he can make the same kind of improvement Workforce made from the Dante, but I'm not counting on that.
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Of the two Derby market leaders I'd like to see Sir Stoute winning another Derby before he hangs up his training boots. It'd even precipitate or hasten his retirement. I just hope Desert Crown (DC) turns up for his sake; my wager on DC is only 1/2 of Stone Age.
I even backed the wrong one of Appleby's in the 2000G. That's how bad antepost has been so far. Hopefully Emily Upjohn (from 7/1 right down to 4/1) can do the business in The Oaks, and then The Arc. Either one will put me in profit after no shows from Inspiral (1000G) and Luxembourg (Derby); Honeysuckle and Baaeed - both antepost - have redeemed a gloomy betting predicament some what. |
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I would say that all the o,brien brigade are looking to utilize racing experience to compensate for a lack of a champion . The yard is in a transitional stage from galileo and the odd freak, towards Wotton Bassett I think whom has it to prove over here . I dont like desert crown or stone age at their prices . I,m often wrong ! but offer my humble opinion and am flattered you consider my opinion worthy of consideration . best of luck !
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Great read Figgis, Sandown etc. really enjoyed this. Do you hold out any hope for Eydon? He's not a certain stayer but the Frankel Damsire angle could be an as yet-unproven sign of upgraded stamina. He definitely has the ability on my reading of formlines (Port Lonsdale/Royal P, Sonny Liston).
I've done a deep dive into the pedigrees and Westover shines out but his defeat at Ponte last year bothers me, I'm not sure he's good enough. Could be proved wrong though. Cheers again. |
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Chico quito, I think a repeat of his Guineas run over the longer trip would mean he'd run Desert Crown close. However, I'm not a fan of the yard. Each to their own, and there are probably lots of punters out there who are. I just find that more often runners from the yard reach a level then go backwards rather than continuing to progress. But yes on that form I can see why you fancy him at the price.
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Stone Age = Bolshoi Ballet it seems. The former was back-pedalling from 1f out.
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Sandown, as we were both in agreement about Desert Crown beforehand I'm interested to know what you made of the Derby? Completely ignoring any subjective opinions on whether DC was value for more, on bare time/form alone I have it in the bottom three Derbys of the last ten years. A good 6lbs below last year's Derby. On the bare performance I have DC up only 2lbs from his already decent Dante rating. I fancied him to win and backed him to do so, but on watching the race I was still (pleasantly) surprised how easy he made the whole thing look. Although on analysing the race I can see that a big reason for that was just how poorly the opposition performed.
As to DC going forward and whether he's capable of more. Well I have him improving 2lbs from the Dante, he's still only had three runs and with him travelling so well at every stage of the race and having a fairly easy race by Derby standards there's no saying he can't improve a bit again. I know he was eased in the last few yards but I've always thought it ridiculous when people equate that with being value for lengths more and would rate him value for no more than half a length (1lb) at best. His chance in the KG (if that's the target) obviously depends on how strong the race looks nearer the time. Like many others I've always thought the allowance, while not as extreme as it used to be, is still a bit overly generous to the 3yos, and even an ordinary Derby winner has a chance if there's no standout older runner. A lot of other ordinary Derby winners had to fight hard for the win and were exhausted afterwards, so you'd think DC has an advantage compared with them on that score. That said, I see Timeform are already saying he is "potentially one of the best Derby winners of the century". Well, as much as any unbeaten horse has the same potential that statement is true, but I find it ludicrous on what he's actually done so far, he's still a long way away. So in the near future I'm not sure that he's a betting prospect for me, as it seems he's more likely to be overrated than underrated. I will have to see how strong the Irish Derby looks nearer the day, but Westover looks an appalling price, as he's well short of even an average winner and I will be looking to oppose him. |
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Figgis.
First the caveats. Epsom is such a tricky track to rate because of the rise and fall which makes comparing races over different potentially unreliable. On the other hand, Racing TV now provide accurate sectional times for this track which alleviates parallax issues.Midnight Legacy's race is a useful yardstick. To start, I agree with your assessment that the 2021 running works out about 5/6lbs superior. On RPR's, DC is rated 125 following the Derby (Adayar was given 124 rising to 128 after the KG). I gave Adayar 118 on final time projecting to 133 with sectional upgrade. I have DC on 112 on final time projecting to 1277 with sectional upgrade. (NB Depending on my last 2f allowance I could go to 129. Still considering whether to downgrade or not. I need to look at all the races over the meeting which I haven't done as yet.) With any horse having had so few runs to-date, and to do what he did, I would have to err on the strong probability that he can go higher as I don't consider he had an overly hard race. I expect him to beat Westover again when and if they meet again as he was, as you say, eased a fraction. What to give him for that I can't say but its another plus in the case of DC vs Westover. If his next target is the Irish Derby I would expect him to be favourite for that. Whether he is backable at the price remains to be seen. If he goes to Ascot for the KG, it depends on who else turns up, but I expect him to go close given the potential to improve further. I'll reserve judgement on TF's claim but the horse was visually very impressive, I have to say, and he could easily rate higher later in the year. |
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127 obviously.
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Sandown
Thanks. Realised I made an error in saying that Desert Crown's figure was in my bottom 3 Derby winners of the last 10 years. I had removed Wings Of Eagles, Harzand and ROTW, who didn't even quite meet my threshold figure for an average Derby winner. He's very clearly shown he's better than those. |
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And Stone Age now goes for compensation in the Belmont Derby...just like Bolshoi Ballet.
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finished 3rd
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