Horse Antepost

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28 Oct 21 22:38
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 23,948 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
not too long to go and this will be on us , lots of the top irish horses quoted but few will line up , nicholls looks to have a strong hand as usual  all being well and last years winner frodon  is aiming for a repeat but probably wont get an easy lead  up front this time ,clan des oboux ran well last year but is a short price . st calvados has joined ditcheat from harry whittington and will possibly start off at ascot then on to the king george in which he ran well last year in 4th btn 8l behind frodon ,rated 167 he has to improve but could well do for the change of scenery and nicholls could get a fair bit of improvement out of him and  around 25s 33s in a few places could be a bit of value .
selection st calvados 25/1 33s in places each way.good luck opinions encouraged .
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Report GI MAC October 31, 2021 7:24 AM GMT
He's a hard one to work out for me Foyles. I backed him last year in this race, his first go at 3miles but he ran out of steam at the end, so he looked a non-stayer on the face of it. Saying that, it was his first run for ages so he may have needed it. The jury is still out for him as a stayer for me. It will be interesting how Nicholls gets on with him and the other Brooks horses (and Lalor) - he could be mob-handed in this.

I fancy we could see one or two of the Irish come over, Bromhead will surely have one with talk of Envoi coming over along with Minella Indo, perhaps Allaho who looks tailor made for this, as does Kemboy. Some good novices stepping up this, along with Frodon/CDO, potentialy it could be a very good renewal. Entries will be interesting.
Report nocturnal October 31, 2021 11:47 AM GMT
First run in February 1937,named after King George V1.

Every year the Irish angle is a talking point,so I had a little look back.

The last winner was Kicking King 2005 .... that surprised me.

Pendil,Captain Christy,Wayward Lad .... without mentioning modern day horses.

This race is littered with multiple winners,more so than any other I could think of.

As for the barren Irish spell,thats an interesting question.Been mulling that one over,so the question would have to be,why do they need to travel over ?

The Leopardstown grade 1 is a cracking renewal in its own right,arguably has been a much better guide to GC winners in recent renewals.Add in the disruption to stable staff etc,travel plans over a bank holiday,its a big commitment for any size stable.

As the second most prestigious race in the English staying division,does prize-money reflect that?£116 grand to the winner,how does that compare to other big races throughout the season?

Since 2005,if we have not backed a horse trained by PFN,NH or TIZZY, we have done our bucks.

That in itself is a quite remarkable record,again its hard to find any other big race that reflects this sort of domination.

CDO heads the betting around 7/2,compared to some years,it does have a very open look to it.

However,from a punting point of view,just how much do those recent statistics affect our judgement?

I too would like to see some contenders from across the water,somehow I have my doubts.

Early days ..... plenty more will unravel between now and raceday.
Report kavvie October 31, 2021 2:06 PM GMT
shan blue 10s ? will he run tho
Report Fashion Fever October 31, 2021 5:49 PM GMT
trainer said envoi going for John durkan prob be another cake walk for him, never mentioned KG can't see them leaving GC cup dream behind in this
Report FOYLESWAR October 31, 2021 8:06 PM GMT
yeah noc no cert to stay on what we seen ,but nicholls may get a good bit of improvement out of him and if he thinks he will stay then thats encouraging for me ,st calvados missed his intended reappearnce in november  last season was goin g for either the betfair or channel pharma so went to the king g without a run since march so not a bad effort in finishing 4th just over 8 lenghts behind frodon .tbh just had a small ante post each way bet on him so far ,nicholls has hinted at the king george but should have a prep this time possibly at ascot end of november . any irish coming over would have to be taken very seriously but not really  ante post bets as not many have lined up in recent years . last years novices will  need to step up but could do shan blue looked very good yesterday but that was a very heavy looking fall and will need some getting over.
Report The Dragon November 2, 2021 7:15 PM GMT
horses for courses clan des for me - not original i know and not a decent price but it will go and can do it
Report FOYLESWAR November 3, 2021 11:08 AM GMT
have cashed out the st calvados bet with b365 ,dont think the price wilk drop much if anything while he is sat at home in his box ,will go back in nearer his debut at end of this month not worth the risk till then.
Report impossible123 November 3, 2021 7:46 PM GMT
CDO was injudiciously ridden last time. I believe his pilot was too preoccupied tracking his fancied stablemate who'd well retire soon after a dismal run in the Charlei Hall just recently. Anyway, CDO at 3/1 is too short even if none of the Irish shows up.

I hope Hendo is able to get one of his charges ready plus at least one from Elliot and/or Bromhead eg A Plus Tard.
Report nocturnal November 3, 2021 11:10 PM GMT
He is an interesting horse Foyles.

Should have won the Ryanair to my mind.

Does look strange stepping up in trip first time in the KG,far from disgraced in hindsight,just how much owners can influence these decisions also worth remembering.

The other factor would be his ability to go right handed,everything about him so far suggests he produces his best on left handed tracks.

Prolific French Sire,a family that PFN knows really well,intriguing to see where he starts him off.

Anyone know the reason why horses were moved from the HW yard ?
Report penzance November 4, 2021 10:21 PM GMT
looks like Minella Indo could come over
for this,De Bromhead.
Report impossible123 November 5, 2021 7:27 AM GMT
A Plus Tard and Minella Indo from de Bromhead for Betfair Chase and King George respectively? If so, I hope Mr Mullins takes note. Mr Mullins has been "hiding" his Gold Cup charges for as long as I can remember.
Report sixtwosix November 5, 2021 9:28 PM GMT
I don't think Minella Indo will turn up .
He will run his prep in Ireland for the Gold Cup.

CDO is the most likely winner , he won't be taking anything like the Betfair on this time.

I had hoped his stablemate Master Tommytucker would turn up , but can't see him in the lists.
Report penzance November 17, 2021 4:46 PM GMT
had a nice A/P bet on Waiting Patiently on here
@30s+.Worth another go in this on last years run.
Should'nt be that price if he makes the gig.
Was 6L or so in front of Clan Des Obeaux and he's
3s & as short as 9/4 with some books.
Now with Christian Williams.
Report duffy November 17, 2021 6:06 PM GMT
The current betting suggests to me that none of the big Irish hopes will be turning up and on that basis I think the 11/4 on CDO is more than fair with Nicholls believing the BC hindered him last year plus the soap opera with the on off pace set by Frodon in a bid to preserve Cyrname's stamina which didn't play to CDO strengths anyhow, everything this year will be set right for him to run his race, with no Irish he will go off closer to 6/4 than 11/4 IMO.
Report penzance November 18, 2021 11:57 AM GMT
can't see Clan DesObeaux going off 6/4,meself.
No Irish in the race last year and he went off 85/40.
There's 2 horses in the race currently who beat him
Report racing6699 November 30, 2021 6:43 PM GMT
Its hard to have a strong opinion when so many good horses still undecided. I cant understand the campaign HDB has mapped out for Envoi Allen and why its is not aimed at this. It goes well right handed and its ideal time to go up in trip. To me its looking like they dont really believe in the horse if they do swerve this, esp as connections don't have another contender for the race.
Report unclepuncle December 10, 2021 6:56 AM GMT
Weather forecast is for a very settled and dry spell the middle of next week up to race day so ground should be pretty decent.

Might suit Chantry House more than the other market leaders?
Report sageform December 12, 2021 12:40 PM GMT
Kempton is a very different course if better than soft ground. Fast and quite tight bends. Once it gets softer it can be bottomless in the straight.
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 December 19, 2021 11:17 PM GMT
I just took 50/1 on Tornado Flyer after Willie confirmed him and Asterion Furlonge are intended runners in this.

I liked the way Tornado Flyer was staying on at the end in the John Durkan.
He seems best right handed, so I’m willing to forgive his only previous run over 3 miles which was left handed.
He is best on soft or heavy though, but light rain is forecast 24th, 25th and 26th. Hopefully they turn the taps on aswell.
I just think they were playing about with this horse in the last year and is worth a poke at what seems very generous odds.

His stablemate asterion may well of been the winner if he’d stood up last time, but his so unreliable and 3 miles may stretch his stamina anyway.
Tactically Asterion could really annoy Frodon who prefers his own way infront.
Minella Indo prefers a more galloping track like the new course, and I have a feeling we’ve seen the best of Clan des obeaux. And not seeing him yet this season is a worry, despite Nicholls wanting him fresh and headgear doing the trick in the spring.

A year down the line and I’ll be looking back at the 2021 King George and realising that it was actually quite a poor race.
Most horses are overhyped going into this due to being unexposed, and then become exposed and actually a bit average.

Here’s hoping I get as lucky as last year when I had a free fiver bet on Frodon at 25/1 (massive aftertiming).
Report sixtwosix December 20, 2021 3:03 PM GMT
10 left in .... my thoughts

Clan Des Obeaux - thought they used to claim he was better for a run ?
Frodon - won't repeat win
Lostintranslation - are you kidding ?
Dashel Drasher - way way out of depth
Asterion Forlonges - The distance will beat him , if he stands up that is.
Mister Fisher - making the numbers up
Saint Calvados - pick up place money at best
Minella Indo - Has never looked like a King George horse , will be outpaced and stay on.
Chantry House - Announces himself at the top table with a win
Tonrnado Flyer - They should have brought Janidil over , not this fellow.

Report FOYLESWAR December 21, 2021 9:52 PM GMT
have had a few quid back on st calvados each way  at 25s ,nicholls didnt seem too confident on his chances but had to back it as the betting gods always seem to punish you if ya change your mind so more with hope than confidence and a smallish bet at that.
after going back through the runners my main bet will be on chantry house who looks better than ever stepping up to staying trips .his marsh win may be undervalued as many thought envoi allen was a cert but on subsequent events chantry may have beaten him if that one had stood up . an improver with more to come he will do for me .
Report nocturnal December 24, 2021 7:01 PM GMT
Chantry House looks solid in the market,at this rate he might go off shortest.

I,m struggling to see just what I,m missing ?

Potential ... Yes I agree,but 5/1 for the KG,on minimal evidence,surely it must be Nicky and his eyesight thats hitting the wrong button Shocked
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 December 25, 2021 12:20 AM GMT
Yeah I watched last years king George back and Saint Calvados was running a blinder until frost cut him up on the last corner. He had to change stride and then met atleast one of the last two wrong.
He was travelling so well until losing momentum.
At the time Wittingham couldn’t buy a winner so for St calv to do that was amazing.
Nicholls has history training horses from this sire including Sametegal who won over 3m2.
Frodon was ignored by Nicholls last year, and now st calv is barely mentioned by the trainer.
His an awful trainer to back just going off his comments so be careful backing clan des obeaux.
Report impossible123 December 25, 2021 11:16 AM GMT
The jockey won the race last year; the boys left theirs in the men's room esp the two riding for Nicholls.
Report FOYLESWAR December 25, 2021 12:44 PM GMT
having just rewatched the 2020  king george several times focusing on 1 different  horse only each time i watched i have come back to my original fancy st calvado, nothing was travelling better turning in and as enlandbarnes says frodon cut him up and he had to be switched a few times and it may have looked as if he didnt stay but the trainer was bang outta form and he may have needed the race he actually stayed on quite well and nearly snatched 3rd  back at the line . with a trainer who has won a record 12 king georges and he could eek out a good few pounds improvement should have him spot on and the icing on the cake could be the wind op and tounge tie 25/ 1 each way bog with the accounts ,will also do some shops  and should be a fair bit  bigger on the exchange at some point will be the way i am playing with some short priced keep lays put in nearer the off .
Report metro john December 25, 2021 4:51 PM GMT
Pretty much agree with opening post, Saint looks value but lacks a run? still some meat in the price, for win purpose I would be with Minella Indo, and expect Chantry house not too far behind, those three for me.Love
Report Autocue December 25, 2021 4:55 PM GMT
Poor quality for a KG so I’ll have a go on Frodon to follow up.
Report strontium December 26, 2021 12:19 AM GMT
Poor quality? You've gold the Gold Cup winner, two King George winners, and five winners of Grade 1 chases (12 between them). How much quality do you want?
Report appformat December 26, 2021 7:19 AM GMT
its a trappy race but lostintranslation keeps jumping out at me even though on the book it hasnt really got much of a chance.
GL Chaps
Report impossible123 December 26, 2021 10:37 AM GMT
I cannot have Chantry House on what he's done or beaten. He's also a ridiculous price now. I think 'Lostintranslation' could win on his 3rd in the Gold Cup, and has been overlooked.
Report FELTFAIR December 26, 2021 11:52 AM GMT
Backed Minella Indo each way.
Report FELTFAIR December 26, 2021 11:52 AM GMT
Backed Minella Indo each way.
Report FELTFAIR December 26, 2021 11:53 AM GMT
But only once
Report Millerracing67 December 26, 2021 12:11 PM GMT
Provided the ground isn't too soft, I'd be sweet on Clans chances. If he gets into a Gd jumping rhythm I think he's the 1 to beat.
Report Autocue December 26, 2021 5:35 PM GMT
Poor quality. Second lowest rated won it. ITV always hype these races.
Report nocturnal December 26, 2021 5:39 PM GMT
Take A Bow EB1 .... Cracking Hit.
Report FOYLESWAR December 26, 2021 5:42 PM GMT
very well done barnes top tippin
Report acey deucy December 26, 2021 5:58 PM GMT
Brilliant tipping barnes.
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 December 27, 2021 8:13 AM GMT
Cheers guys, I was having a poor days punting until the king George but at those odds made a nice profit on the day.
I actually had more on Saint Calvados who luckily finished third thanks to AF falling as usual.
Nearly got the forecast but can’t be greedy.
Report FOYLESWAR December 27, 2021 11:42 AM GMT
its difficult sometimes if ya fancy one at very big odds ,how much to put on ,the general rule is supposed to be bigger the odds bigger the stakes but then the brain  starts to tell you 50/1 its that price for a reason  and other negative thoughts kick in , you can never have enough on a winner at big odds or short odds and in this game its good to be greedy .well done again barnsey.
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 December 27, 2021 5:00 PM GMT
Yeah that’s generally the way I try and bet tbh.
Tornado flyer was the biggest priced king George winner ever though! I was surprised by that stat.
Report penzance January 6, 2022 3:54 PM GMT
Lovely winner
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