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ronnie rails
13 Oct 21 22:34
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Oct 09
| Topic/replies: 2,741 | Blogger: ronnie rails's blog
The Derby winner or not your thoughts would be very helpful.

thank you
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Report brain dead jockeys October 14, 2021 9:31 PM BST
looks like aidan o briens only g1 2yo colt of 2021. fav for the final g1 of the uk season at doncaster next week. very impressive last time. royal patronage will be a tough rival in this race (if they both turn up).........as for being 2022 derby winner.........no idea ronnie.
Report ronnie rails October 15, 2021 6:17 PM BST
BDJ

thank you for taking time to reply very much appreciated.

hope you are well

regards

Ronnie.
Report .Marksman. October 17, 2021 11:34 PM BST
His win in the Beresford was in a fast time and the Racing Post TS figure could be an underestimate, as he was much faster than the winner of the maiden and the 1m handicap.  He should have had enough time to recover from this run.  His run style suggests that he really wants further than a mile, as he has been so strong at the finish in his 2 races.  He handled Killarney's left hand bend well despite it being a bit crowded on the turn, so he probably will be OK at Epsom next year.
Report ronnie rails October 18, 2021 8:34 AM BST
Marksman

thank you

have a good day

regards

Ronnie.
Report liberator of the oppressed October 20, 2021 7:59 AM BST
Understand was quite a significant amount rain in Donnie yesterday morning bit of an unsettled remainder week Sally the weather girl said today.
Report cryoftruth October 20, 2021 11:19 AM BST
Interesting colt Luxembourg.
He’s won twice on good but the dam was best on soft and she has 3 other offspring, 2 of which seemed best on soft and the dam was best on soft as well.

Not an exact science of course but it looks a bit doubtful that Luxembourg will be inconvenienced by give in the ground. On pedigree his stamina for the Derby looks assured. The question is how good he is.

Last race was about 114P in timeform terminology, so to win this he does need to improve again, but that looks almost assured.

Royal Patronage is maybe around 113p and is typically tough and genuine from the Johnson yard and might even be well suited to soft going, some Wooten Bassetts like plenty of give and he hosed up in a poorish race when he got give at Epsom. If Luxembourg beats him well he can be considered a pretty high class horse. But Royal Patronage will  be unlikely to go down without a fight.

It’s far from a 2 horse race either. Angel Bleu (maybe 112p) just loves a bog and is quite high class. It is quite conceivable he could beat both the other 2.

The huge priced outsider is McTigue of Sir James Bolger. On form he looks a forlorn hope. But Sir James is a great trainer - a legend. He is not in the habit of wasting transport money sending no hopers for English Group 1s.

Doncaster was due to get rain today and more tomorrow. It’s not going to dry out much by Saturday, and could be that good to soft ground that is quite holding and not so very easy to get through.

Good luck everyone.

I am disinclined to plunge on Luxembourg at current odds for either Futurity or Derby but if he wins well on Saturday I would guess he might be as short as 7/4 for the Derby afterwards.
Report Sandown October 23, 2021 11:53 AM BST
I'll go record now and state that Luxembourg is the best 2 yr old I have on figures since Frankel.
Report Figgis October 23, 2021 1:51 PM BST
He won an extremely weak Gp2 last time while on bare form only needing to run Gp3 level. He appeared to do it very easily though and I'd expect he's at least up to genuine Gp2 level. Which, looking at today's opposition, will probably be good enough. It seems as though Coolmore think he's a Gp1 horse, but they also seemed to think that about Point Lonsdale, and at the moment the confidence doesn't appear quite as high about this one. Credit to anyone who has him as pegged the real deal already and is proved right, as for me it can only be guesswork before today's race.
Report Figgis October 23, 2021 1:53 PM BST
* pegged as the real deal
Report penzance October 23, 2021 10:32 PM BST
Derby best price 4/1,Billys 5/2.I don't care
what anyone says,they are shocking odds.
Report ronnie rails October 24, 2021 10:23 PM BST
Thank you for all your posts

just another quick one 4/1 next years derby
bad price
fair price
good price.
TIA.
Ronnie.
Report .Marksman. October 24, 2021 10:47 PM BST
It's hard to guess the route that Aidan O'Brien's horses will take as I don't think he knows himself, and if he makes his own plans, they are quite likely to be altered at short notice by The Lads.  Having said that, it does look like he will go for 2000 Guineas, then Derby (as his sire, Camelot, did) and, if he wins both of these, there is unfinished business in the St Leger.  I won't lay him at 5.0 (4/1) even though it will help balance my book.  He looks full of ability, with room for improvement.  If you want to bet on the Derby, which is still over 7 months away, he is the only one who looks value.  None of the others quoted have a better than 33% chance of even getting to the Derby, in my opinion.
Report ronnie rails October 25, 2021 9:05 AM BST
Marksman

thank you for an excellent post.
have a good day
regards
Ronnie.
Report Figgis October 25, 2021 9:02 PM BST
The Guineas decision will be based on whether he's clocking times at home next year up to the mark of their previous top milers.
Report Sandown October 25, 2021 10:16 PM BST
I wouldn't be worried at all whether he is fast enough for the 2000Gns based on his Curragh run. The only question will be if he is ready in time to do himself justice in early May.
Report Figgis October 25, 2021 11:09 PM BST
Sandown, I know you're projecting a rating based on his Curragh late sectional, but just wondering how confident you can be on the base rating when there was only one race on the round course that day?
Report A_T October 26, 2021 8:36 AM BST
Figgis will he need to improve to win the Guineas?
Report Sandown October 26, 2021 9:54 AM BST
Figgis. Obviously I can't be absolutely confident based on one run, and with that being the only run on the round course at the Curragh, as you rightly say, but the finishing split was exceptional (22.1) for an 8f race for 2yr olds. Even if I downgrade my going allowance by 0.1  secs per furlong, the result still gives me a high G1 horse rating. As I said, my highest rating for a 2yr old since Frankel.

He possesses more than enough speed to win a Guineas, the Futurity win confirmed his class, albeit the figures weren't quite as strong, but high enough. I expect the debate to be about whether he has the stamina for the 12f Derby trip but as his pedigree shouts 12f, he looks potentially to be the real deal for me.

Connections comments were very positive, but then as we know, they always are. AOB did say that there was plenty of scope for physical and mental development which bodes well.
Report Figgis October 26, 2021 1:58 PM BST
Figgis will he need to improve to win the Guineas?

A_T, on the bare form/times achieved yes, but in the Beresford he wasn't really pushed and was only ridden to beat the opposition. The Futurity was run in a very moderate time, but that was no reflection on him, it's just the way the race was run. Even a great horse would be unlikely to win by a big margin in those circumstances. All I can say is that visually I was very taken with him at Doncaster, whereas I never really was with Point Lonsdale. The potential is obviously there, but for me he's not an ante post betting proposition.
Report .Marksman. October 26, 2021 2:29 PM BST
Well spotted, Figgis re Beresford being the only race on the whole card run on the round course.  As the wind was light and the general direction travelled by horses in all races was roughly the same, the possible variable is the going on the round course (before it joins the straight).  To disbelieve the time performance, you have to believe that less water or no water was put on the first 5f of the Beresford course, which I think unlikely, as it is a Group 2.
Report Figgis October 26, 2021 3:57 PM BST
As I said, my highest rating for a 2yr old since Frankel.

There was a Frankel post on here straight after his debut if I remember rightly. I didn't join in until his Doncaster win, where I latched on to him because of the time performance, as many others did. I remember posting that he was potentially even better than I'd rated. As my original rating was so high I'd taken a cautious approach and downgraded him a few pounds, as I didn't want to go out on a limb about a performance in a three horse race. Obviously this proved to be a huge mistake, as it led me to thinking he was probably thought of as more a Derby horse, especially with Cecil starting him out in a mile race on soft ground then aiming him at the Royal Lodge. So as a betting proposition I made a complete mess of it and backed him only for the Derby.

He was still 20/1 after Doncaster though, while Luxembourg is only 9/2 after achieving considerably less, at least as far as final time performance is concerned.
Report Figgis October 26, 2021 4:34 PM BST
Marksman, even if you judge that conditions were very similar on the round course and the straight course, which in this particular case I do (at the Curragh there is often a massive difference between the circuits compared to other racecourses), it still only means the Beresford was about 17lbs faster than the closing apprentice handicap, which leaves it some way short of Gp1 standard. That doesn't mean he can't run faster, or people can't upgrade him because of sectionals, as Sandown has, but the basic final time performance was quite ordinary for the grade.
Report Sandown October 27, 2021 5:47 PM BST
I didn't rate Frankel a potential superstar until after his second run at Doncaster where he received an RPR of 126. My projected rating for him was 134. The only way he got that kind of rating was because of the way in which he ran the race, i.e the pace splits,not because of the final time. After his third run, I raised that projection to 138b but never gave him higher subsequently. He eventually received a RPR PB of 143 on his 12th run and his last run, his 14th.

After his frist win when he went off at 7/4 he never subsequently went off anything other than odds on and long odds on at that.


The only time I ever managed to back him for decent money was when he went off 4/6 (1.71) for the Dewhurst, his 4th run and for some reason  he went to 2.46 in-running. I managed to average 2.3 on him.

Frankel is the only horse I have ever kept a separate record for. He was phenomenal and I have never had a 2yr old post  comparable figures either before or since and I have been keeping time/pace reords for nigh on 40 years.

Until Luxembourg, that is. So, when I saw his figures at the Curragh, I knew that we had just seen something special.

I understand the concern about the going allowance for the round course not being backed up by another race on the round course, but that doesn't worry me. Why? Because he gets his high rating from me on what he did in the last 4 furlongs, the last 2 especially.He ran the last2 furlongs of an 8f race a fraction faster than did the 4 year old sprinter Art Power did over 6 furlongs where he ran to an RPR of 120. That is seriously impressive.

I cannot back Luxembourg for either of the firdt 2 Classics , not because of the price, but because it is just too far off to tie up money now in the AP market.

If I am right, we should just be grateful that he might be the next Frankel even if we don't ever get to back him because of his price.
Report gpz6316 October 27, 2021 10:57 PM BST
very interesting to read time aficionados opinion on the horse . He looks good in his action , but , hes only 1.5 ls ahead of 4 other horses with little to spare imo , you wouldnt rule him out of winning a guineas or a leger ,  but , theirs no value in him . i,d rather wait
Report gpz6316 October 27, 2021 11:13 PM BST
kingsbarns aob and crowded  house . chestnut with a white blaize were in my thoughts . both hype jobs , unearth the value please not the obvious .
Report Figgis October 27, 2021 11:57 PM BST
Sandown, knowing how Coolmore operate in monitoring work times and sectionals, and how they've not exactly been behind the door in hyping up past runners, don't you think they'd be showing a lot more confidence if they thought they had a superstar on their hands? Sure, they know he's pretty good but the vibes don't seem to be anything different to other past classic prospects. I'm also wondering about them starting a horse with exceptional speed over a mile, as that doesn't seem to be the usual way they do things. The way he's been campaigned seems to suggest he was thought of more as a Derby type and if he can bag a Guineas it'll be a bonus, similar to Luxembourg's sire. O'Brien has had more Gp1 winners than any other yard in recent years, for me, he's trained the fastest two 1000 Guineas winners I've seen, he's had some fine colts as well but never had an outstandingly fast colt. I would've expected the yard to notice if they had a potential Frankel on their hands.

This isn't a dig at your opinion of Luxembourg. It's just some doubts that would enter my mind if I'd personally rated one so highly.
Report Sandown October 28, 2021 11:36 AM BST
Figgis. I can only rate the horse with any objectivity not the trainers or owners which is all rather subjective. Whether he is guineas horse or a Derby horse or both will be subject to much speculation, no doubt. Already I see that one of the RP writers is arguing that using the final sectional from Doncaster, the horse may not be a 12f horse and his head carriage is also raising queries.
Report Sandown October 28, 2021 11:49 AM BST
unearth the value please not the obvious .

Some years ago when I was running a tipping line I gave out the winners of the 1000 and 2000 Guineas  in a double which paid 50/1. It was comments like yours from ungrateful and ungracious clients which convinced me that people are never satisfied. If it's so obvious, you find them. And if it's value you want, that isn't what I would put on here first, for people like you to take advantage of , is it?

The only purpose of posting on here is to relate to other knowledgeable racing fans who can likewise make positive contributions not to provide a tipping service or so that I can feel good about it for people who can't work things out for themselves.
Report gpz6316 October 30, 2021 8:34 PM BST
twas flippant of me in my remark to find the value apologies .
Report Sandown November 1, 2021 10:56 AM GMT
accepted gpz6316
Report impossible123 November 2, 2021 1:49 PM GMT
8/1 is a good trading price nearer Derby Day esp in doubles and trebles, if he stays sound.
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