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Value King
24 Jul 21 19:49
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Date Joined: 18 May 08
| Topic/replies: 279 | Blogger: Value King's blog
This is arguably my favourite race of the flat racing calendar.

Three darts before the five day entries; ground & draw is all known...

HURRICANE IVOR - 10/1 (Ladbrokes)
This will be only his fourth start for William Haggas after being gelded and coming over from France; he's improved with each run. His last performance was particularly impressive given that he raced away on the far side at Ascot in a small cluster of horses before kicking clear of them to just be denied on the line by one racing up the centre. That was over five furlongs (as have all of his starts been since coming over to the UK) but he showed that he stays six absolutely fine over in France. In a way, finishing runner up at Ascot last time may have helped his cause here as he escaped another winning penalty and now finds himself three pounds 'well in' for the Stewards' Cup. The slight concern is the ground as he's not encountered quick conditions yet and from the limited data available from his young sire they are leaning towards enjoying some give underfoot. However, the sire himself (Ivawood) put up a blistering display when winning the Richmond over course and distance on good to firm ground; so there's every reason to think he will handle it. Interestingly, the grand sire (Zebedee) also won at Glorious Goodwood and his two best sons to date have been Ivawood and Magical Memory (a Stewards' Cup winner himself); so there are lots of Goodwood links in his blood. Ivawood was owned by Fiona Carmichael, who also owns Hurricane Ivor. Therefore it is perfectly possible that this chap always had this race as his mid season aim ever since he came over from France. One would imagine Tom Marquand will get the leg up again (won on him at Sandown) and it's easy to see a big run on the cards.

ZARZYNI - 20/1 (Hills)
I've enjoyed watching the Laurence O'Kane (owner) model over the years of buying horses from top yards and building them back up again. This gelding could certainly have more wiggle room in his current mark. He'll be having only his fifth start for David Barron since coming over from Ireland and this ex Aga Khan speedball has the ability to make his presence felt. Back at the start of April he lined up for the Scottish Sprint Cup over five furlongs and was narrowly denied on the line. That form reads extremely well with the first, third & fourth all winners next time out; seventh went on to win the big field sprint handicap at the Dante meeting and ninth ended up winning the Epsom Dash. He must have had an issue following that as he wasn't seen for nearly three months. When we did see him again it was over at the Curragh where he flopped badly, trailing in last of seventeen. I think we can put a line through that as possible fitness issues combined with the travel clearly didn't suit and he put the effort behind him only last week when he won at Redcar over six furlongs under quick conditions. He travelled really well that day and won with a bit in hand it appeared. That should see him get into this with the penalty applied and the yard are in really good form at the moment, although they are 0-9 at Goodwood over the past five years. The likely fast conditions and the continuation of running over six furlongs are plus points and he's worth a swing at the price Hills are offering, considering he's half that with some other firms.

MOTAGALLY - 25/1 (various firms)
This gelding has been rising through the ranks for Charlie Hills over the past few seasons and now finds himself off a mark of 101. However, he can still compete off that given the right circumstances and this race might bring out the best in him. He has enjoyed rattling off the ground at Bath and Brighton, his last three starts on good to firm or quicker have produced three wins. The fact he's been winning at those tracks bodes well for him handling the unique nature of Goodwood. On the face of it this is a big step up from winning class three events at Bath, but on both of those occasions he had Chil Chil in behind and she's gone to to achieve a rating of 110. So he has form in the book of competing with this class of opposition. He's had a couple of starts this season to build fitness and get him back in the groove, so he should be ready to rock 'n' roll come Saturday. The usual blinkers have been left off so far this year in what is a possible ploy to try and spark that extra 10% out of him for this contest if they are reapplied. You'd imagine he'd be reunited with Jim Crowley, who obviously rides the course very well and has been on board for all of this chap's turf wins. He's worth a play too.
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Report nocturnal July 25, 2021 12:59 AM BST
Three well reasoned write-ups VK .... Always nice to see.

Been on the saturday plenty of times over the years,this race was always the headscratcher.

The TV pictures do not really show how much gradient there is over the 6 furlongs,anyone on the rails will not see them appear until well after the start.

Finding horses that can handle undulating tracks has always been a starting point this end,not always a given that the form can transfer to goodwood,just my take on this unique track/meeting.

Just one observation at this stage of the race,only 4 course winners in the top 50 entries handicap wise,3 over CD including last years winner.

Weather looks settled after tuesday ... famous last words.

5 day decs might shed a little light,couple in there catch the eye Immediately.,actually about half a dozen.

Will stick a few thoughts up once had a proper look.

Always good to see other opinions,we all need a little help in these handicap minefields.

Goes without saying,bragging rights assured finding the winner of this one.
Report Value King July 25, 2021 3:25 PM BST
Thank you Nocturnal.

Yes, I've been to Goodwood a couple of times and once on Stewards' Cup day (when Intrinsic won). It's very much a unique course and it's hard to do it justice on the TV screens. In many ways, it's similar to Epsom in that respect.
Report unclepuncle July 25, 2021 5:08 PM BST
With you on Motgally as the value - took some 32 this morning.

Also plan to back Chiefofchiefs on the day.
Report Colm O'Rant July 25, 2021 6:23 PM BST
Great Ambassador one I've long fancied for this, not run for a while only worry.
Report angrybryan July 26, 2021 10:28 PM BST
I have been tracking Chiefofcheifs for it seems forever,as it will only get a strongly run race it needs in these high class sprints.
Report angrybryan July 26, 2021 10:42 PM BST
sorry I pressed the enter key. continuing,Athough it ran well in the soft at Royal Ascot,I am convinced it prefers better ground and so would only bet the horse on good going.If it came up wet a race like the St.Wilfred handicap at Ripon in mid August would be ideal
Report Value King July 27, 2021 9:09 AM BST
Well the huge downpours have pretty much ruled out Motagally now as an option; unless it suddenly changes by Saturday. It appears as though it'll just be on the easy side of Good by the weekend, you'd imagine.

It cools my interest in Zarzyni somewhat but he's still worth a go at the huge price Hills are offering. It solidifies Hurricane Ivor for me and now brings Fresh into the equation (also 10/1).

How does it work with the ballot for the race? Does anyone know? Bickerstaff is interesting with juice in the ground but he's down at 40 on the list due to receiving the 3yo allowance. Even though his rating of 96 puts him into the race. I presume he gets a run does he based on his rating?
Report Value King July 27, 2021 9:44 AM BST
Someone has answered the ballot question over on the Horse Racing forum.

It seems unlikely Bickerstaffe will get in (although there may be a lot above that come out if the ground stays iffy). He will be interesting for the consolation race if missing out.
Report angrybryan July 27, 2021 11:44 AM BST
CHIEFOFCHIEFS.Further to my post yesterday,which I said this horse was better on good going and is unsuited to soft ground.Racing is about opinions and the Sporting Life ante post tipster disagrees with mine.This morning he has tipped Chiefofchiefs for Saturdays Stewards Cup reasoning he will be suited by soft ground. So lets take look at the evidence.In a twenty-seven race turf career the horse has yet to achieve a first three placing when the going was soft. Without looking at the sectionals the it has appeared to run well on soft ground in its latest race the Wokingham at Royal Ascot when it finished fourth of twenty one, beaten only a length and a half.The sectionals and the form comments reveal that the middle pace in this sprint was far to strong.This resulted in a pace collapse and the first four home were all hold up horses. This is my opinions Please feel free to disagree.
Report Facts July 27, 2021 2:58 PM BST
I bookmarked Fresh for this race after his great run in  the Wokingham.
Report De_man July 28, 2021 8:58 AM BST
Worst course and worst festival for a punting point of view with many hard luck stories eh nearly get Frankel beat at the kip imv
Report De_man July 28, 2021 8:59 AM BST
Now the ground a pain too lol
Report De_man July 28, 2021 9:00 AM BST
Only Frankie can ride it too
Report cobra sam July 28, 2021 11:44 AM BST
i backed atlantas boy when prices came out...interviewed menunsieur after it won at the track earlier in the season...said this was the seasons target...hopefully runs,,,will back punchbowl flyer tomorrow or friday
Report angrybryan July 29, 2021 7:16 PM BST
Goodwood is drying out.Could be good at goodwood tomorrow.After tracking CHIEFOFCHIEF for ever and not backing it for various reasons,mainly going related I could actually be investing? is that the word,on Saturday
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl July 29, 2021 11:48 PM BST
Ostilio, trained by the sprint king, an outsider, but has won on both soft and good ground.
Report Facts July 30, 2021 9:06 AM BST
Class act is Summerghand. A repeat of last year not out of the question .
Report nocturnal July 31, 2021 1:50 PM BST
The usual equine conundrum,backed a couple last night.

Toal Commitment OR 95

Intriguing profile this lad,a 5yr old with just 8 turf runs to his name.

His AW record reads really well,finnishing in the first 3 14/19 attempts.

The small yard will put plenty off,the trainers record though with 4yr olds and above on turf is interesting.

Back on the 7th may he ran an excellent 3rd to Fresh at Ascot,giving him 3lb on g/s going.

Taking in todays claim,TC has a 9lb pull for that 1 1/4 beating ascot run.

First time visor today is noted,a few recently have run well in this with headgear applied.

Claimers have also fared well in recent runnings,those small margins can make the difference.

Strikes me as a potential dark horse,overlooked slightly at the current prices.


Gulliver OR 99  (today)

Like his namesake,been on his travels recently.

Same stable as last years winner,at the age of 7 he remains competitive in these sprints.

Both recent runs in this,off 100 and 107 were resectable,both were on g/f.

That today might be the key,To me he wants cut to produce his optimum.

His form in top handicaps is there for all to see,stand side draw this time around.

Due a 3lb drop after today,he,s a grand old horse on a going day.


The consolation is arguably even more interesting,keen to see how the 3 yr olds get on.

Going looks much softer today after the first race,will take some getting if they go too fast.

GL Everyone
Report sageform July 31, 2021 6:57 PM BST
Very good shouts Nocturnal, hope you were on e/w. I was tempted by Total Commitment as I know John Whelan, the owner, and W. Carver is a very good apprentice but I hardly ever bet on big sprint handicaps.
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