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jamesp
16 May 21 10:38
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 2,518 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
It's far too early, of course, to be even thinking of next year's classics, and traditionally bookmakers don't even start to price up horses for the Guineas before Royal Ascot, but I thought it would be worth starting a new thread to note fillies who are already showing considerable promise. Top of the list, and the only one to have made a big impression so far, is Contarelli Chapel. Aidan O'Brien's filly looked a bit green and wayward on her debut at Naas, but once she got the hang of things she sprinted clear to win a 6f fillies' maiden by a wide margin (the third has won since). That maiden race has been won in recent years by the likes of Roly Poly (2016), Alpha Centauri (2017) and Fairyland (2018), all of whom went on to score at the highest level. She won that maiden race more impressively than any of those other recent winners of the race, she reappears at Naas this afternoon in the Gr.3 Coolmore Stud Irish EBF Fillies Sprint Stakes, where she is a long odds-on favourite, and it will be a major surprise if she fails to take the step up in class in her stride. She's by Caravaggio out of the Sadler's Wells mare Chenchikova (a full sister to High Chaparral), which makes her a half-sister to dual Gr.1 10f winner Fancy Blue and 12f winner Casterton. It remains to be seen what her trip will be this season, but there is plenty of stamina on the dam's side of the family and she's a good-sized filly who should continue to progress. A very promising filly.
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Report impossible123 April 26, 2022 1:03 PM BST
Tuesday with Inspiral out is sensible. The race is wide open, and she definitely stays. Has Hello You an alternative engagement? She's weak here.
Report Figgis April 26, 2022 1:24 PM BST
won't stay a mile

Has to be a doubt, but I don't know how anyone can be very confident that she won't. It's not like Caravaggio has only been siring sprinters.
Report penzance April 27, 2022 7:01 PM BST
Going to France,Homeless Songs.
Report unitedbiscuits April 28, 2022 6:50 PM BST
Good support for the fav now.

Predictions for SP? I'd go 15/8.
Report sintonian April 28, 2022 7:17 PM BST
Dermot Weld… mentions nothing until the 5 day stage, how very considerate. I wonder what has prompted him to change his mind?
Report impossible123 April 29, 2022 7:33 AM BST
Tuesday is weak. She's been matched at 13. A probable non-runner after  pleasing trainer with her recent progress; stablemate Tenebrism has shortened as a result.
Report Adelaide April 29, 2022 11:45 AM BST
Interesting booking of Tom Marquand for Zellie...
Report impossible123 April 29, 2022 6:12 PM BST
Tuesday is running with Dettori on board; Moore's on Tenebrism. Another Tens Sovereigns, could it?
Report unclepuncle April 30, 2022 12:53 PM BST
Have split stakes on the two French fillies at 7/1 and 10/1. Also have a small antepost bet on Malavath at 14/1.

Vive La FranceLaughLaughLaugh
Report jamesp April 30, 2022 1:29 PM BST
There may be some light rain in the Newmarket area tomorrow morning, but I hope it stays away and the ground remains fast for Discoveries. I'm sticking with my two antepost bets, 5pts Discoveries at 20/1 (partly laid off) and 1pt Zellie at 50/1. (Plus 6pts in antepost non-runners.)
Report jamesp April 30, 2022 2:28 PM BST
The Cheveley Park Stakes form has just been dented by a disappointing performance from Flotus, beaten odds-on favourite at Newmarket this afternoon...
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl April 30, 2022 2:40 PM BST
Irish win for me with Jessie to land it with Discoveries..... Tennebrism may stay and rated the danger if she does. Good luck all.
Report Figgis April 30, 2022 2:41 PM BST
Flotus obviously well below the form she showed in the Cheveley. I don't think you can bring the whole race down because she hasn't gone on from that.
Report jamesp April 30, 2022 4:52 PM BST
True, but the Cheveley Park fourth Guilded and sixth Illustrating have also run nowhere near their Cheveley Park ratings this season, and the form is starting to look a bit wobbly.
Report Figgis April 30, 2022 5:40 PM BST
Fair enough. Decided it's a no bet race for me anyway, good luck with yours.
Report jamesp April 30, 2022 8:13 PM BST
To be honest, one can pick holes in the form of all the runners. At this stage it looks an open and competitive but not terribly high class renewal. Good luck all.
Report Try My Best April 30, 2022 11:38 PM BST
How come it’s a no bet race for you Figgis. Thought you were very strong on Tenebrism like you were on Native Trail.
Report Figgis May 1, 2022 2:54 AM BST
I was always stronger on Native Trail as even as a 2yo there were no doubts about him getting the trip, and then he showed his well being in the Craven. I don't have a clue if Tenebrism will stay. It's very rare I back a 2yo for a classic that hasn't shown strong form over 7f. I was hoping she will stay, and I may have taken a chance at this price if I knew for sure that she'd at least trained on, but I don't. After watching the performances of the O'Brien horses in the Guineas I'm not sure even they know where their horses are at the moment.

Point Lonsdale was considered by them as a real Guineas contender last year. He doesn't even look a proper Gp2 horse on any of his performances. O'Brien said Luxembourg has more pace than his sire, well there was very little evidence of that yesterday. Tenebrism had some problems last season and was therefore sparingly raced. There was only one performance, the Cheveley Park, that I can rate her highly on and I have no idea how she has taken that race. Added to that the stamina doubt and the feeling that at this moment Coolmore seem to be taking an overly optimistic view of their runners, I'll pass on Tenebrism.
Report FELTFAIR May 1, 2022 6:52 AM BST
Backed Zellie each way(4 places).Hoping this daughter of Wootton Bassett will appreciate a strong run mile and can stay on into a place at least. Also backed and traded Cachet because I thought the price was too big.
Report A_T May 1, 2022 7:18 AM BST
Wild Beauty for me in a very open race
Report paulo47 May 1, 2022 10:31 AM BST
Have the 33s Ameynah ,nice price but thats about it .
Report jamesp May 1, 2022 10:49 AM BST
I don't understand the move for Ameynah, now the shortest-priced of the UK-trained runners. Sure, she's a promising and unexposed filly who won her maiden in good style, and Ghanaati had a similar profile before winning the 1000 Guineas in 2009 (at 20/1) for Barry Hills, so it's not an impossibility, but it would be an astonishing training feat by Roger Varian if he could win the Guineas with this filly. Presumably she's been working very impressively in preparation for this, but she's up against Group 1 winners this afternoon, and it requires a huge leap of faith to think that she could beat the lot of them.
Report Figgis May 1, 2022 10:54 AM BST
Jamesp, agreed

an astonishing training feat by Roger Varian

Words you'll rarely, if ever, see, in my view Wink
Report penzance May 1, 2022 11:26 AM BST
If Teneberism gets the Mile she should go very close but
I think Prosperous Voyage will run a big race today,twice
rnr/up to Inspiral the A/P Fav, at the end of last season.
   GL ALL
Report jamesp May 1, 2022 12:51 PM BST
Discoveries very weak in the market this morning (17/2 from 11/2, was 9/2 yesterday), which is a bit puzzling since the ground will be perfect for her and her trainer has reportedly been very happy with her preparation. Interesting to see whether any money comes for her before the off this afternoon.
Report penzance May 1, 2022 1:03 PM BST
Could be that all the money atm seems to be for
the Varian horse.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 1, 2022 1:37 PM BST
The drift is a concern but this stables runner's often drift so fingers crossed. At least not like Saluti yesterday drifting like the chelsea man's huge yacht, without any lifeboat. They knew and PM up.
Report lingbleed May 1, 2022 2:52 PM BST
Sandrine a bit of a forgotten horse, if she gets the trip cant see why see wont be a player. Every reason to thing she wasn't at her best at the end of last season having started in May. She's the one for me.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 1, 2022 3:49 PM BST
Highclere winner
Silly
Report go-all-in May 1, 2022 3:58 PM BST
Highclere's website has crashed. Probably a lot of people like me wondering how much a leg in a nice looking yearling would cost them Laugh
Report jamesp May 1, 2022 5:33 PM BST
Well done to Cachet backers, but one can't help thinking that the long-time antepost favourite Inspiral would have won if she hadn't missed some crucial work in her preparation and been forced to miss the race. After all, she beat Cachet and Prosperous Voyage quite comfortably in the Fillies' Mile last autumn. It's a very hard race to assess form-wise, with a few of the runners still appearing a bit 'wintry', and it's too soon to write off some of the beaten runners. Zellie ran another puzzling race, off the bridle a long way out but staying on well and nearest at the finish, probably needing a longer trip. Tenebrism and Malavath seemed not to stay the mile.
Report unclepuncle May 1, 2022 6:17 PM BST
I was dismissive of those who claimed after the 2,000 Guineas that’s there was a golden highway on Saturday but in hindsight there clearly was a strip of ground near the far side that was quicker.

Fair play to James Doyle for exploiting his draw advantage to maximum effect. Cachet will need very quick ground if those tactics are to work elsewhere though.

Zellie and Sandrine come out of the race with great credit and it will be interesting to see if Fabre targets the Coronation or the Prix Diane.
Report A_T May 1, 2022 6:59 PM BST
strange couple of days with all times slower than standard when at Newmarket there has apparently been no rain for weeks - suggests over-watering has taken place
Report Adelaide May 1, 2022 9:26 PM BST
Pity for connections of Mise en Scene - which includes me, as on that form she would have been there at the finish.. and she'll be better over 10f..  Murphy rode her in a gallop the other day, said she didn't come out of 2nd gear..

Tenebrism clearly didn't stay, she was all over the shop 1f out, even looked across at her stablemate as if to say ''what the heck is going on here?''  she had a hard race, as did so many others..

Sandrine surely the Jersey Stakes would be on the cards..

Zellie needs it soft, and a bit further.  Fabre should have been pleased with her run and the ride Marquand gave her.

Ameynah is another I take out of the race.  It will be interesting to see where Mr Varian sends her next, being by Exceed and Excel..
Report Adelaide May 1, 2022 9:28 PM BST
Oh, and as for Inspiral, I heard that she didn't miss any work, that may be a smokescreen, just she hasn't come to herself and has been working badly..
Report Figgis May 2, 2022 7:11 PM BST
Well done any winners. For me it ended up a below par race and by my reckoning the slowest 1000 winning performance of the last 10 years. Tuesday looks well underpriced for the Oaks.
Report jamesp May 2, 2022 10:36 PM BST
Agreed. It was one of the weakest renewals in recent years. Could anyone seriously have fancied Cachet as a potential Guineas winner last season? She's clearly a progressive filly and has improved from two to three, but with only about 3 lengths covering the first six I doubt whether this represents genuine Group 1 form. I suspect that several of the runners were below their best, for whatever reason. Zellie, for example, had about 4 lengths in hand of Cachet on two separate bits of form last season (the Prix d'Aumale where Cachet finished seventh, and the Prix Marcel Boussac where Oscula was beaten nearly 5 lengths having previously finished just half a length behind Cachet in the Rockfel): either Zellie hasn't trained on as well as expected, or she wasn't quite ready for this race (she was still a bit wintry), or she needs a longer trip. For various reasons everything fell right for Cachet on the day, and I don't think she would have been good enough in most years.
Report FOYLESWAR May 3, 2022 6:49 AM BST
if there is any doubt in a pedigree or style of running  about a horse staying the gns mile history tells us to look elsewhere , there have prob been a few examples over the years  but the percentage call is look elsewhere especially with the shorter priced uns .
Report jamesp May 3, 2022 10:34 AM BST
Credit to Robbie Wilders, who wrote this in the RP after Cachet's Nell Gwyn victory: "I took a bit of 50-1 about her for the 1,000 Guineas before the Nell Gwyn and the general 20-1 reassessment looks a little generous to me. Cachet showed way more than any of her sire’s first crop as a juvenile and on this evidence she has improved again after coming to life at the end of last season. She had the race in safe keeping a long way from home, and while she will need to step forward to shake up the likes of Inspiral, Tenebrism and Discoveries in the Guineas, her pedigree points towards progress with age and experience. Robbie Wilders, The Ante-Postman"
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 3, 2022 12:30 PM BST
Excellent jamesp. Your May 2nd post says it all really. Also your own April 12th post where you said 'not without a chance' and just needed to improve a few pounds to have winning chance was noted. I backed Catchet with Ryan Moore I think on board last year when she disappointed me. Hard to think she would win the 1000gns after that day. But such is life. She improved. Others went the other way perhaps. Anyways Jesse and company must get back to Curragh and try to repeat the victory of Alpha Centauri. Needs to improve and not be getting unbalanced again.
Report penzance May 3, 2022 12:56 PM BST
People want to give Cachet a chance or other rnrs in that
Guineas before rubbishing the form.Cachet wasn't even back
in her stable when the below par race comments come out.It
might well be a below par one,judge it after a few races,give
the form a chance.
Report Figgis May 3, 2022 3:14 PM BST
So don't take a view until everybody is unanimous? Seems the opposite of what being a punter is about.
Report penzance May 3, 2022 4:04 PM BST
Cachet's btn 19 oppenents in her last 2 runs,before that
btn just under 1L in America.Had decent form in the Fillies
Mile aswell.People are entitled to their view,not doubting
that,I'll let the form unfold a bit meself before under estimating
it.
  GL
Report Figgis May 3, 2022 4:19 PM BST
That's fair enough. Many times I'll remain undecided until further evidence. Personally I have Cachet improving 3lbs from the Fillies Mile to the Nell Gwyn, which I didn't think would be good enough. I now have her improving another 4lbs from the NG to the Guineas. There's no saying she definitely won't improve a similar amount again, and if she does she'd be an up to scratch winner.

The situation reminds me of years ago when Wince won the NG. It was the best form on offer that season going into the Guineas, but I thought, wrongly, that it probably wouldn't be good enough. Wince declined after winning her Guineas and I can see Cachet doing similar, but we shall see.
Report jamesp May 3, 2022 8:00 PM BST
Based solely on what we know so far, I think it's a slightly substandard Guineas in terms of the ratings we can place on the fillies that filled the first few places. Having said that, I agree with Figgis that the form may start to work out better than the ratings we can currently apply to the race. Certainly both Cachet and Prosperous Voyage are progressive fillies who have improved with each race since last summer (apart from Cachet's disappointing effort in the Prix d'Aumale last September). Tuesday and Ameynah are lightly raced and very likely to have improved on their previous form. Zellie and Sandrine are smart fillies in their own right, and I'm inclined to use the consistent Sandrine (OR 108), who probably stayed the mile, as the best guide to the form.
Report impossible123 May 3, 2022 8:45 PM BST
I think 3/1 about Tuesday (3rd at Newmarket) for the Irish equivalent says a lot about what the bookies think of the her 3rd at Newmarket and the form of the race despite Cachet and Prosperous Voyage are not entered; Inspiral is.

Inspiral is due to make her racecourse reappearance this season in the Heron Stakes on 19th May Sandown, then Coronation Stakes (only 2/1) at Royal Ascot in June. Assuming she's make excellent progress could she be rerouted to the Curragh on 22nd May instead of Sandown? The Coronation Stakes is 17th June which is over 3 weeks after the Irish 1000G.
Report A_T May 3, 2022 9:34 PM BST
the vibes aren't good for Inspiral not sure how much we'll be seeing her on a racecourse again
Report jamesp May 3, 2022 10:52 PM BST
I doubt very much if they'll want to re-route Inspiral to the Irish Guineas. They want to give her a nice easy reintroduction and take it from there.
Report impossible123 May 4, 2022 4:06 PM BST
True 'jamesp'. However, the race is weak given the winner was behind her last season, and was not expected; 2nd is unlikely too, and neither are the principals eg Tenebrism/Malawath/Zellie, etc.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 4, 2022 5:16 PM BST
Winner going to France. Presumably the 1000 gns
Shocked
Report Try My Best May 4, 2022 11:36 PM BST
I've had a little bit on History at 33/1. Runs on Sunday in Ireland and was a very expensive yearling. Think she will stay the trip all day and is overpriced imo.
Report Try My Best May 4, 2022 11:37 PM BST
For the Oaks btw
Report jamesp May 5, 2022 8:35 AM BST
History is quite speedily bred (the dam by Showcasing was successful at 6-8f in America and is a full sister to top miler Mohaather), but she got a mile really well last year at two, so she should stay further, being by Galileo. As well as the weekend entry at Leopardstown over a mile, she holds entries in the French Guineas, Irish Guineas and Coronation Stakes over a mile as well as the Oaks, Ribblesdale, Prix de Diane, Irish Oaks and other 10-12f races, so they're definitely keeping all their options open regarding her best trip.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 8, 2022 12:25 PM BST
The form that Agartha brings to the table is pretty much top class and History will need to be a high class filly to prevail here. Not impossible with AP though.
Report Try My Best May 8, 2022 4:26 PM BST
Well that will do nicely. Lovely performance from History today and beat a good yardstick. Managed to get a bit of 50s on here for the Oaks to small money. 33s with Ladcrookes as well so hopefully a good trading position going forward. Hope she gets a run.
Report Try My Best May 8, 2022 4:29 PM BST
The way she hit the line last year in her maiden win suggested to me she would get a lot further than a mile. I appreciate the speed in her pedigree may suggest that 1m 2f may be her ceiling but her price was way too big to ignore. How many pounds does she have to find Figgis to have a chance?
Report harry callaghan May 8, 2022 4:37 PM BST
Why don’t you just write your peanut bets on the oaks thread try your best? Who is interested

Why ask figgis his ratings? Why not put your own up?

I for one will be interested as you talk a great game
Report A_T May 8, 2022 4:45 PM BST
not that impressed with History - beat a filly that doesn't stay a mile
Report Try My Best May 8, 2022 4:49 PM BST
Thanks AT for your informed comments. I will readily dismiss them.
Report Try My Best May 8, 2022 5:08 PM BST
I always want to learn from the forums greatest form experts Harry. Hope you backed United Nations and History. If that's talking a good game I'll settle for it.
Report Figgis May 8, 2022 5:17 PM BST
These self proclaimed winners who profess to have the game by the nads always seem keen to divert the horsey conversation into a todger waving contest. You'd think they'd be enjoying their vast wealth instead of displaying all the behaviour of an insecure little pisswit. Funny that Wink
Report Try My Best May 8, 2022 5:23 PM BST
Hey it's 6 bags of sugar Figgis. Good afternoon to the greatest. I am in awe.
Report jamesp May 9, 2022 5:29 PM BST
French Guineas betting (Sunday, Longchamp), Power: 2-1 Cachet, 5-2 Homeless Songs, 7-2 Rosacea, 7-1 Toy, 10 Raclette, 12 Zellie, Mangoustine, Wild Beauty, Malavath, 14 Accakaba, 16 Tenebrism, Yukata, 20 bar.
Forfeits aren't until tomorrow, so there are still 100+ entries. Running plans are a bit murky, but I'd be tempted to have a bit of 12's Zellie if she's an intended runner and has come forward from the Newmarket Guineas run. She probably wants further than a mile, but on last year's form (especially her C&D win in the Prix Marcel Boussac) she would have a reasonable chance of reversing Guineas form with Cachet, though the latter has progressed well and may be able to confirm the form.
Report impossible123 May 9, 2022 9:21 PM BST
Inspiral is only 3/1 for Irish 1000G. Any intention of connection running her in Ireland? If so, she'd even start fav on the day. But, I doubt it a lot nevertheless, glad to be proven incorrect.
Report jamesp May 9, 2022 10:35 PM BST
Chris Richardson (for the owners) said a few days ago that the plan is for Inspiral to go to Sandown for the Heron Stakes before heading to the Coronation Stakes at Ascot. I think the Irish Guineas has been more or less ruled out.
Report penzance May 10, 2022 12:42 PM BST
Homeless Songs now Curragh bound.
No Fr 1000G.
Report A_T May 10, 2022 1:55 PM BST
Dermot Weld strikes again
Report impossible123 May 10, 2022 5:59 PM BST
The Irish version is weak eg 11/4f Tuesday. I've serious doubt Tuesday is a genuine Gp1 8f horse. Her last race was mediocre in comparison to previous 1000G.

I hope Inspiral will turn up (without my money). I'd like to see if she'd still as good as she was last season. If so, and fit Inspiral will "walk" away with the Irish 1000G with minimal fuss.
Report jamesp May 10, 2022 8:06 PM BST
19 fillies remain in the French Guineas on Sunday. As stated above, Homeless Songs is an absentee. So too is Guineas fourth Zellie. Cachet heads the entries. Fabre has declared his Gr.3 Prix Vanteaux winner Mqse De Sevigne. The Gr.3 Prix de la Grotte winner Rosacea is also an intended runner. Aidan O'Brien has declared Cork maiden winner Toy. Remarkably Fozzy Stack has left in Hermana Estrella, off the track since she won a Group 3 a year ago on debut (beating subsequent Queen Mary winner Quick Suzy). It's a huge ask for a once-raced filly, off the track for such a long time... but stranger things have happened!! Shocked
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 13, 2022 4:37 PM BST
Interesting race Leopardstown 5.10pm. Jesse takes on Ballydoyle and others with Discoveries full brother.
Report jamesp May 15, 2022 2:25 PM BST
Cachet beaten a head by Mangoustine in the French Guineas. Only about 2 lengths covered the first eight finishers, suggesting a very moderate renewal and dubious form.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 15, 2022 7:29 PM BST
So where does all that leave us jamesp for next weekend at the Curragh ?
AP very upbeat 2day about the winner of that Leopardstown race, the other night Alfred Munnings. He said Sue has been waiting to use that name for quite some time!!! Jesse H's stable look very much out of form. Needs to turn the corner real soon. I would agree the fillies look poor.
Report brandyontherocks May 15, 2022 9:12 PM BST
I know she isn't top class but it was a brave run from Cachet today. Game filly.
Report penzance May 15, 2022 9:33 PM BST
Cracking run,was a HD away from doing the Guineas Double.
Report impossible123 May 16, 2022 10:29 AM BST
Surprisingly Inspiral is fav for the Irish version with 'billie'. A last minute despicable greed/ruse to take advantage of a very no-show?
Report jamesp May 16, 2022 12:06 PM BST
Homeless Songs has put up the best performance so far this season among the Irish Guineas entries, but she's not a value price, I'm slightly put off by all the changes of plan, and using Agartha as a guide there may not be much between Weld's filly and the improving History, who beat the same filly at Leopardstown. No bet for me at this stage.
Report brandyontherocks May 16, 2022 1:59 PM BST
Inspiral will miss the Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh and Coral Heron Stakes at Sandown this week, with connections now targeting the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Report impossible123 May 16, 2022 8:45 PM BST
Missing planned assignment is never good for any horse esp a Classic fav. If missing Royal Ascot could it be adios Inspiral?
Report jamesp May 17, 2022 10:02 AM BST
Connections have indicated that they are very happy with the filly, but she just needs a bit more time. I wouldn't be in any rush to take a short price for the Coronation Stakes, but there's no reason to think she hasn't trained on or anything like that. In fact, Frankie Dettori said last year that the filly was still quite weak and should do better at three.
Report jamesp May 17, 2022 12:01 PM BST
Interesting to note that Sandrine (OR 108), less than a length behind Tuesday in the 1000 Guineas, is 33/1 for the Irish equivalent on Sunday, while Tuesday (OR 109) is only 3/1. No idea whether Sandrine is an intended runner at this stage. I guess we'll find out soon. But that's a crazy price.
Report jamesp May 17, 2022 8:13 PM BST
Sandrine is an absentee, but 15 fillies stand their ground, including Homeless Songs, Tuesday and History. Purplepay is a really interesting entry: ex-French, now trained by William Haggas, she was a most progressive filly last year winning a valuable conditions race (by 4 lengths from Daisy Maisy, beaten just over a length in the French Guineas) before finishing third to Angel Bleu (OR 115) in the Gr.1 Criterium International (not clear run 300m out, not reach leaders, beaten 1.5 lengths). She hasn't raced so far this season, may now need further than a mile, and has raced only on yielding or soft ground, but definitely one to keep an eye on.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 18, 2022 2:13 PM BST
Great updates jamesp hard to see AP letting this slip by.
Report cryoftruth May 18, 2022 2:32 PM BST
Although my £25 at 33/1 about Inspiral was laid off, the fact that the ones who finished first and second in the Guineas were thrashed (twice) by Inspiral will be painful for some years.

I recall feeling the same after backing Celtic Swing to win the 2000 Guineas at 25/1. Still haven’t got over that disaster either.
Report Figgis May 22, 2022 12:23 PM BST
Homeless Songs has put up the best performance so far this season among the Irish Guineas entries, but she's not a value price

Jamesp, I agree with both conclusions.

Even with Cachet going close to doing the Newmarket/Longchamp double I still think this year's Guineas was crap. I don't know whether Tuesday is this price due to that form being overrated or if they believe she's come on a lot since then but I couldn't back her. O'Brien is playing the numbers game again and if any go on to win no doubt we'll hear how they always liked her, etc, but not for me.

I think Homeless Songs has put up the best form this year, but if I include last year then I have Agartha ahead of this field on her best form. I reckon she ran slightly below that on her first run this year even though it was still a decent effort under the penalty. I actually have her running a bit worse than that when she was beaten by History, so there is the possibility that she's a filly on the downturn. However, she suffered some interference early on and the race wasn't run at a great pace. I think she's a filly that's always going to show her best in a fast run race. There's no proof she'll definitely stay this mile but if she does then I don't see her out of the frame and I'm backing her accordingly. I think JOB also has a great chance of taking the preceding race. I have Twilight Spinner putting up a career best last time. Again, there is no proof she'll stay the mile but on ability alone I have her now ahead of PG so she's another bet.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 22, 2022 1:02 PM BST
Homeless now 5-1 on the exchange
Bigger worry is Welds form
Just 1 recent winner on May 7
Shocked
Report jamesp May 22, 2022 4:23 PM BST
I'm not in the least surprised that Homeless Songs won, but I'm amazed she was allowed to go off at 11/2, as she had a favourite's chance in my book. I guess the yard's recent quiet spell played a part in the drift. She turned out to be different class and is now clearly the best of the mile fillies this season (by some distance). All the more frustrating that we have yet to see the best of Discoveries, who beat her quite comfortably in last year's Moyglare, so far this season. Inspiral will need to improve a bit to equal that performance. Unlucky Figgis on missing out on the place with Agartha: she only missed out by a couple of necks, but I guess she might not be progressing. I thought Purplepay put in a good effort on her seasonal debut, staying on nicely in the closing stages and looking as though she'll want a bit further. Tuesday ran okay, but her distant second is further evidence that the Newmarket Guineas form isn't terribly strong.

I don't know what happened to Twilight Spinner in the previous race. I thought there wouldn't be much between her and the winner. It's hard to say whether she definitely got the mile on this occasion. She showed lots of speed last season and may benefit from a drop back in trip.
Report Figgis May 22, 2022 4:37 PM BST
Jamesp, yes she was obviously very impressive and that form blows the rest away. It's easy to say after the event, as I'm sure if HS had lost I wouldn't have even considered the point, but regardless of the result HS went from being poor value to good value at an e.w bet to nothing when she drifted to 5/1+. Not for the first time I've made an early call about a runner then failed to reconsider when the price has increased. Hope you did better.
Report jamesp May 22, 2022 4:42 PM BST
The RP handicapper has given Homeless Songs a rating of 120, which is several pounds ahead of Inspiral's best rating last year. The post-race 4/1 for the Coronation Stakes looked fair value but quickly disappeared (now 3/1). I would certainly fancy her to beat the Gosdens' filly at Ascot, especially with the latter having been off the track for such a long time.
Report jamesp May 22, 2022 4:44 PM BST
No I didn't get the price, as I'd already decided not to have a bet and watched the race on replay...Shocked
Report brandyontherocks May 22, 2022 4:52 PM BST
9/4 best price according to oddscheecker for Ascot now.
Report impossible123 May 22, 2022 4:54 PM BST
I got 3.65 Homeless Songs here. But, refrain as I've had a torrid antepost book eg Shishkin, Inspiral, Luxembourg and Native Trail. Hope this and Emily Upjohn can prevail to redress an embarrassing antepost book. Here's hoping!
Report brandyontherocks May 22, 2022 5:02 PM BST
Well 3 of those didn't make the gig ( I know shishkin did but not really ) and Native Trail ran a solid 2nd.
Not the worst picks.
Report impossible123 May 22, 2022 5:34 PM BST
Not making the gig is bad. One cannot even trade; Native Trail could have been be draw disadvantaged. Nevertheless, it's academic if unable to trade and no return; 8/1 and 6/1 for Luxembourg and Inspiral respectively are worthless, only laughs from bookies. Had to pick up antepost scraps eg Honeysuckle (5/4) Irish Champion and Baaeed (evens) Lockinge.

That's the negative sentiment of this "game"; efforts aplenty, return limited.
Report A_T May 22, 2022 6:17 PM BST
brilliant performance - reminded me of when In The Groove won it. Tuesday won't be winning the Oaks.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 22, 2022 6:33 PM BST
Weld has said shes dificult to train
Watch yer ap bets
Shocked
Report penzance May 22, 2022 6:40 PM BST
Her Nmkt backers should have got their dosh back today,
if they kept the faith.Travelled all over the field today.
Report brandyontherocks May 22, 2022 7:44 PM BST
We all have plenty of ante post stories impossible.
Nature of the beast unfortunately.
Report brandyontherocks May 22, 2022 7:45 PM BST
We all have ante post stories impossible.
It's the nature of the beast unfortunately.
Report brandyontherocks May 22, 2022 7:46 PM BST
I still cry myself to sleep over Six Perfections
Report FELTFAIR May 22, 2022 9:27 PM BST
"Nevertheless, it's academic if unable to trade and no return; 8/1 and 6/1 for Luxembourg and Inspiral respectively are worthless"

Don`t you have a Betfair account or is the minimum stake too rich for you?
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