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jamesp
16 May 21 10:38
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 2,468 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
It's far too early, of course, to be even thinking of next year's classics, and traditionally bookmakers don't even start to price up horses for the Guineas before Royal Ascot, but I thought it would be worth starting a new thread to note fillies who are already showing considerable promise. Top of the list, and the only one to have made a big impression so far, is Contarelli Chapel. Aidan O'Brien's filly looked a bit green and wayward on her debut at Naas, but once she got the hang of things she sprinted clear to win a 6f fillies' maiden by a wide margin (the third has won since). That maiden race has been won in recent years by the likes of Roly Poly (2016), Alpha Centauri (2017) and Fairyland (2018), all of whom went on to score at the highest level. She won that maiden race more impressively than any of those other recent winners of the race, she reappears at Naas this afternoon in the Gr.3 Coolmore Stud Irish EBF Fillies Sprint Stakes, where she is a long odds-on favourite, and it will be a major surprise if she fails to take the step up in class in her stride. She's by Caravaggio out of the Sadler's Wells mare Chenchikova (a full sister to High Chaparral), which makes her a half-sister to dual Gr.1 10f winner Fancy Blue and 12f winner Casterton. It remains to be seen what her trip will be this season, but there is plenty of stamina on the dam's side of the family and she's a good-sized filly who should continue to progress. A very promising filly.
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Report jamesp July 30, 2021 8:31 AM BST
Yes, a complete fiasco at Galway: we'll have to wait for another chance to see the debut of the well regarded Alizarine. Twinkle's victory at Galway is another boost for the form of Dermot Weld's filly Homeless Songs, who beat her by nearly 6 lengths on debut at Leopardstown. Agartha, 2 lengths runner-up to Homeless Songs in that maiden at Leopardstown, recently put up a much improved performance to win the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes in quite impressive fashion (RPR 100). Homeless Songs (by Frankel) is very much one to keep on the right side and she looks capable of holding her own in much higher company.
Report jamesp August 6, 2021 10:41 PM BST
I'm a little surprised to see that Prettiest has been declared to run in Sunday's Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes over 6f at the Curragh. Following her promising run behind Sandrine in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, I thought that a step up to 7f would suit her, only for her to perform below expectations over that trip in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes next time (finished behind Seisai who won a Listed race at Tipperary this evening). She was found to be in season after that race, however, which might account for a below par performance. I'm not convinced that the drop back to 6f will necessarily suit her, and there are some decent colts to overcome (La Collina was the last filly to win the race in 2011), but I couldn't resist a small bet on her for Sunday's race at 16/1 with Betfair (9/1 - 11/1 elsewhere), which looks overpriced considering she's the mount of Ryan Moore while her stablemate The Entertainer (S.Heffernan) is only 12/1 here on Sportsbook (but as big as 20/1 elsewhere). Aidan O'Brien, needless to say, has a very good record in the race and has won it with some very smart colts over the years, though it's not a race he normally targets with his 1000 Guineas prospects, and I'm hoping for a better performance from Prettiest to put herself in the Guineas reckoning.
Report jamesp August 6, 2021 11:17 PM BST
Guineas favourite Inspiral's Sandown (Star Stakes) winning form comes under the spotlight tomorrow in the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes, where the 2nd Wild Beauty, 3rd Sunstrike and 5th Almohandesah renew rivalry, but they may be a shade vulnerable to a lightly raced improving type. Mark Johnston has a good recent record in this race (two wins and one second place in the last three renewals) and his well-bred filly Value Theory, who made a good impression over C&D last time, has been backed from 5/1 to 7/2 and there are quite a few tips for her tomorrow (including the Timeform pick).
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl August 7, 2021 10:00 PM BST
Sweet Solera looked ordinary race.
I think the Moyglare is the race that matters.
It stands the test each year. Always a classy event.
The target may be further along the road!
Will watch curragh race with interest!
Report jamesp August 8, 2021 4:28 PM BST
Yes, the Moyglare and other races in the next few weeks will tell us a lot more about the pecking order.
Dismal performance by Prettiest in this afternoon's Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh. Ryan Moore had the whip out some way from home and she weakened quickly. One can't keep making excuses, and she's simply not progressing (unfortunately).
Report jamesp August 10, 2021 3:40 PM BST
Quick review of some of last week's notable performances by juvenile fillies:
Seisai (previously third in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes) put up quite a decent effort to land a Listed race at Tipperary (RPR 95), suggesting that Agartha's rating (OR 102, RPR 100) is about right. The Silver Flash Stakes form looks solid Group 3 class form and Agartha looks a useful and progressive filly who can make her presence felt in better company.
Majestic Glory put up a good winning time (the fastest of the four 7f events on the card) in Saturday's Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket. The running of Wild Beauty in second suggests that Inspiral (who beat her with more authority at Sandown) would have won this contest quite comfortably, but Andrew Balding's filly (OR 100, RPR 99) is clearly going in the right direction and can do even better. Again, solid Group 3 form without setting the pulse racing.
Over at Deauville Oscula put her slighty disappointing performance in the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes behind her, putting up an improved effort over 7f to land an all-the-way win in the Gr.3 Prix Six Perfections under an enterprising ride from Ryan Moore (OR 103, RPR 103). Runner-up Zellie, the odds-on favourite and previously unbeaten in three starts (impressive last time in a Listed race), looked a shade unlucky, coming from off the pace and showing a smart turn of foot to get to within 1½ lengths of the winner. Andre Fabre's filly still looks a classy and smart prospect and is very much one to keep a close eye on.
Another Andre Fabre-trained filly Shaikha (RPR 88) made a big impression when winning the Prix de Lisieux for unraced fillies over 6f by 3 lengths (same distance back to the third) in a very fast winning time of 1m 8.54s (1.90s faster than the colts' equivalent race and also quicker than both of the 6f handicaps on the same card). She has a lovely flowing stride, won easily and is definitely one for the notebook.
Fast Attack (RPR 90) is speedily bred (by Kodiac out of a 6f winner) and showed loads of pace to win an ordinary 7f Kempton maiden on debut by 6 lengths, showing a good turn of foot. The Crisfords' filly holds an entry in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados on 21 August: that might be flying a bit high at this stage, but perhaps a race like the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood would be a realistic target for her.
Report jamesp August 12, 2021 12:21 PM BST
I've been taking another look at the Gr.3 Prix Six Perfections replay, fractions and form, and I think it's safe to upgrade the performances of the runner-up Zellie and third Daneh. The bare ratings (RPR 103 for the winner) suggest that it's solid but unexceptional form for the grade, and the winner Oscula who pinched the race from the front under an enterprising ride had looked a bit below the top rank over 6f (possibly unsuited by the fast ground in the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes), but there are reasons for thinking that the winner improved for the step up to 7f and that both Zellie and Daneh can make their presence felt in Group races from now on.

Zellie had been very impressive when extending her unbeaten record to three races with a bloodless victory in the Prix Roland de Chambure (Listed). Mickael Barzalona was impressed by her acceleration on that occasion, remarked that the fily would have accelerated again if required, and described her as "a filly with a big motor". She was strongly fancied to follow up in the Prix Six Perfections but found herself a little far back with three furlongs to race and despite making rapid headway in the closing stages was still 1½ lengths adrift at the line, after making up about 3/10th of a second in the last three furlongs (that's about 5 lengths). Zellie looks the ideal type for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac and could take in either the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados (21 August) or Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale beforehand. Her dam is an unraced half-sister to 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa, and she should have no trouble getting a mile.

The 3rd-placed Daneh, having been slowly away, was even quicker than Zellie over the last three furlongs (34.01s against 34.10s for Zellie) but made her move earlier and was overhauled close home by the runner-up. She had previously impressed with an easy win on debut at Kempton (showing an excellent turn of foot) and remains a smart prospect. She holds entries in the Prix du Calvados, Rockfel Stakes and Fillies' Mile. She's by Dubawi out of the top class Rizeena (winner of the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes and Gr.1 Coronation Stakes) and will definitely get a mile.

It's interesting to compare Daneh's sectional times wth those of the Crisfords' other smart prospect Fast Attack. Both fillies won first time out over 7f on standard/slow at Kempton. Daneh achieved a marginally faster winning time (1m 27.91 against 1m 28.07), with Daneh also clocking the fastest sectional of 11.49s for the penultimate furlong (compared with Fast Attack's final two furlongs of 11.56s and 11.66s). Daneh looks the better filly of the pair at this stage, especially in light of her very good performance at Deauville, but Fast Attack herself looks a smart prospect and should make her mark in Group company.

Zellie and Daneh can both be backed for the Guineas at 50/1, which represents fair value, and one could certainly back worse 50/1 shots than either of these two.
Report jamesp August 17, 2021 2:12 PM BST
Eleven fillies have been left in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes at the Curragh this Saturday. This race is often a strong pointer to the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes and other Group 1 races. Four of the last six winners of the 1000 Guineas (Mother Earth, Love, Hermosa and Minding) ran in the Debutante Stakes and all were beaten in it(!). The last six winners of the Debutante all went on to win at Group 1 level.

11 Velocidad (JPO'Brien)
33221 Agartha (JPO'Brien)
21 Concert Hall (APO'Brien)
41 Discoveries (MrsJHarrington)
510 Hapipi Go Lucky (JPMurtagh)
31 Mise Le Meas (JPMurtagh)
1447 Prettiest (APO'Brien)
22 Radiyka (DKWeld)
3131 Seisai (JPO'Brien)
24 Sunset Shiraz (GCromwell)
51 Twinkle (APO'Brien)

Velocidad carries a penalty for having won a soft-looking Gr.2 race last time (four runners, slow winning time, beaten favourite stumbled leaving the stalls, runner-up had previously been well beaten in the Queen Mary Stakes). She's stepping up to 7f for the first time and will need to learn to settle better (took a keen hold last time), but is bred to stay well (from a staying family on the dam's side).

Agartha has been noted previously in this discussion thread. She sets the standard, having won the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes over this trip in good style last time (a marked improvement on her previous four efforts in maiden company), but it's hard to know where she stands in the pecking order vis-a-vis her stablemate Velocidad. Seisai, won a Listed race recently (RPR 95) but was previously beaten more than three lengths by Agartha and has something to find.

Prettiest ran very disappointingly in the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes last time and will need to put up a much improved performance here to get competitive. Her stablemates Concert Hall and Twinkle are stepping up from maiden victories (like Aidan O'Brien's four most recent winners of this race: Magical, Rhododendron, Ballydoyle and Tapestry). Twinkle, a full sister to Anthony Van Dyck, 'won' (on the disqualification of the three-year-old 'winner') a Galway maiden on soft ground last time (RPR 87), beating Radiyka. Concert Hall (by Dubawi out of Oaks winner Was) narrowly won a Curragh maiden last time (RPR 86). Both are promising fillies who should do well over longer trips, but both need to step forward and make significant improvement on the bare form of their maiden wins.

Discoveries (superbly bred, full sister to Alpha Centauri) narrowly won a Curragh maiden last time (RPR 91) from a smart-looking newcomer (holds Mise Le Meas on that form). She's a great big attractive filly with lots of scope for further improvement, and it would be no surprise to see her emulate her half-sister Alpine Star, who won this race two years ago.

Mise Le Meas, beaten by Discoveries first time out, won a Gowran maiden comfortably (slow winning time, RPR 90) and looks to be on the upgrade. She's a half-sister to Gr.1 winning miler Nahoodh.

It's interesting to note that Dermot Weld has left in Radiyka, who has a length and a half to find with Twinkle on Galway form. She's clearly held in high regard, and her dam Raydara won this race for the same owner in 2014.

A fascinating, unpredictable and potentially high class renewal, which may well be a pointer to next year's Guineas!
Report jamesp August 17, 2021 2:36 PM BST
Unbeaten Sandrine is a warm favourite for the Gr.2 Lowther at York on Thursday and appears to have something in hand (even under her 3lbs penalty) of old rivals Hello You and Desert Dreamer. Using the latter as a guide, Sandrine also appears to have the edge over Zain Claudette (winner of the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes). It looks like a solid renewal, but none of the principals appeals to me as a likely Guineas contender at this stage. Sandrine may eventually get a mile, but it's by no means certain (her dam was a 6-7f winner from a speedy family) and we may not get the chance to see her race beyond 6f this year.

Mark Johnston's Outside World (the mount of Frankie Dettori) has a lot to find on form but was quite impressive last time (albeit in a weak-looking novices race), but she's unexposed and very well bred (daughter of Gr.1 winning miler Nahoodh) and looks a shade overpriced at 20/1.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl August 17, 2021 3:23 PM BST
Love was 5th of 9 in the Debutante but went on next time out to win the Moyglare.
Well done jamesp great thread must surely bear fruit.
Report jamesp August 18, 2021 11:30 PM BST
Outside World has been cut to 10/1 from 20/1 for the Lowther. An interesting move for the Mark Johnston filly: she did look overpriced at 20/1.

There is a disappointing turnout of just five fillies so far (final declarations tomorrow) for the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados at Deauville on Saturday. The two British challengers Oscula (already a Gr.3 winner at the course last time) and Fast Attack (impressive debut winner at Kempton) look to have strong claims. Fleur D'Iris (won narrowly at Compiegne), Red Smile (fourth in a conditions race last time) and Accakaba (unbeaten in three races at La Teste Buch) don't look anything special.

There are seven fillies still engaged in the Gr.1 Prix Morny at Deauville on Sunday, including the Gr.2 Queen Mary winner Quick Suzy and Gr.2 Airlie Stud Stakes winner Velocidad (a possible runner in the Debutante Stakes at the Curragh the previous day). The Gr.3 Prix de Cabourg winner Have A Good Day (F.Guyader) and runner-up Dizzy Bizu (S.Wattel) are possible runners, along with the unbeaten Josejosephine (C.Plisson) and Accakaba (C.Ferland).
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl August 22, 2021 1:12 PM BST
SP of Agartha in the Curragh race was a surprise.
Good call jamesp. Did not see race.
Looking forward to your update after the weekend.
Report FOYLESWAR August 27, 2021 8:24 AM BST
the flame of tara stakes today at the curragh should be interesting some well bred types form big yards ,coolmores lullabye straight into group company on debut .
Report jamesp August 28, 2021 10:01 AM BST
There have been some notable performances in the past week or so, but there hasn't been much resulting movement in the Guineas betting. The leading fillies (on RPR ratings, which are a reasonably good guide to performance) suggest there isn't much to choose between them on racecourse evidence:
108 Zain Claudette (I.Mohammed)    -2111   
108 Sandrine (A.Balding) -1112
107 Agartha (J.O’Brien) -332211
106 Accakaba (C.Ferland) -1111
106 Fleur D’Iris (A.Fabre) -412
106 Quick Suzy (G.Cromwell) -21219
104 Inspiral (J. & T.Gosden) -11

Zain Claudette took another a step up the rankings with a gutsy win in the Gr.2 Lowther at York, following up her earlier narrow Gr.3 win at Ascot. Sandrine, giving three pounds, was only beaten a length and the two fillies come out level on the ratings. It's hard to predict which of these fillies would come out on top when renewing rivalry next time in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes. It's also hard to tell whether either of these fillies will get a mile next season. It should be noted that Desert Dreamer (third, beaten three lengths) should have finished closer to the front pair: her saddle slipped and she became unbalanced in the latter stages. There's probably not a lot between those three fillies and I think they are all vulnerable in the Cheveley Park Stakes.

The one I fancy at this stage for the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes is Ger Lyons' unbeaten Sacred Bridge, who was very impressive in the Gr.3 Round Tower Stakes at the Curragh yesterday evening. She travelled well through the race and quickened clear in the final furlong in the style of a very smart filly to win by nearly 4 lengths from opposition that included Ladies Church (OR 102) and Sam Maximus (OR 107). This was a performance worthy of a rating of 110+ and she's the one I would make favourite for the Cheveley Park (her next intended target) (she's 6/1 now from 12/1 for that race with Power and Betfair). Although she's a very quick filly, she gets 6f well and has reasonable prospects of getting a mile as she settles well, and she's a full sister to Viadera (multiple winner at a mile, including a Gr.1 in America), out of a 10f winner.

Agartha continued her progression with a fine performance in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes, making all and comfortably holding off a number of well bred and highly regarded rivals in a fast winning time (faster than Point Lonsdale in the Gr.2 Futurity Stakes on the same card). The only filly to make up any ground on her in the final furlong was the fast-finishing Sunset Shiraz, who shapes like she will be well suited by longer distances (she's a half-sister to Leger runner-up Berkshire Rocco). Agartha is in pole position for the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, and a win there would qualify her for an appearance in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Oscula was unable to repeat her successful front-running tactics in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados and was swallowed up on this occasion by Accakaba and Fleur D'Iris. Fast Attack, who had impressed on debut, faded in the last two furlongs.

The fillies failed to land a blow against the colts in the Gr.1 Prix Morny, with Have A Good Day (the Prix de Cabourg winner) faring best in sixth. Quick Suzy (the Queen Mary winner) went off too fast and faded in the final furlong, and previously unbeaten Velocidad never got competitive and failed to last home (the suspicion remains that her Airlie Stud Stakes winning form is quite weak).

Inspiral remains favourite (by default) for the 1000 Guineas at a best price 10/1. She's clearly a smart prospect, but an expected win next time in the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes is already factored into her Guineas odds and I don't think she represents any value at this stage. I'd be tempted to back Agartha at 33/1, but she's been bought by American owner Scott Heider, so there must be a fair chance that she will end up running at the Breeders' Cup and then continue her racing career in America.

The Gr.3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood today looks wide open. Lightly raced Daneh ran well in a Gr.3 race in France last time and is the logical selection, but there are several lightly raced and promising individuals in opposition.
Report jamesp August 28, 2021 2:28 PM BST
A decent performance by Mise En Scene to mug Daneh close home in the Prestige Stakes this afternoon. This looks a few pounds better than the Sweet Solera Stakes form of Majestic Glory (using Value Theory as a guide), with the winner likely to earn a rating of around 103-104. It was a very good performance on just her second start, but these Gr.3 races all look much of a muchness this season, and a lot more will be needed next time. She's by Siyouni out of a Galileo half-sister to 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa, so she should continue to progress and will have no trouble stepping up to a mile. 33/1 Mise En Scene for the Guineas is more tempting than 10/1 Inspiral, but I doubt there will be a rush at this stage to snap up those odds. Daneh was slightly disappointing: she clearly has a potent turn of foot but was outstayed close home, so maybe she needs to be ridden with a bit more patience in future to enable that acceleration to be deployed to best effect.
Report jamesp September 4, 2021 11:31 AM BST
The entries are in for the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster on Thursday. Unsurprisingly the warm favourite is unbeaten Inspiral, currently favourite for the 1000 Guineas following an impressive win in the Star Stakes (Listed). This will be her toughest assignment to date, but there's no reason to think that the step up in trip and class won't bring about further improvement, and she's going to be hard to beat. Latest betting (best available prices): evens Inspiral, 13/2 Albula, 10 Seisai, 10 Speak, 12 Prosperous Voyage, 12 Suspicious, 12 Wild Beauty, 25 bar.

Albula ran a fine race over this mile trip in the Gr.3 Flame of Tara Stakes last time, just getting touched off close home by a better stayer after travelling best and going a couple of lengths clear a furlong from home. That was only her second start and further improvement is likely. Stablemate Seisai could only manage fourth in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes last time, beaten nearly 5 lengths, but she had to be switched and didn't get a clear run at a crucial stage and is better than her finishing position suggests. She kept on well inside the final furlong at the Curragh and the step up to a mile could bring about further improvement: she's not without a chance.

Speak won comfortably on debut over this mile trip at Kempton, and the form was boosted when the runner-up Natasha went on to win by 5 lengths next time. She could be anything, and it's interesting that her trainer Andrew Balding chooses to run this one in preference to his Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes winner Majestic Glory. She's clearly held in high regard.

Prosperous Voyage is crying out for this step up in trip, having finished well at Goodwood in the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes after being short of room and having to be switched to get a clear run. Suspicious won a maiden over course and distance on her racecourse debut: she only won by a neck (from a Godolphin newcomer) and it's hard to get an angle on the value of that form, so she's a completely unknown quantity. Wild Beauty was comfortably beaten by Inspiral at Sandown and has since been beaten in the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes, and it's hard to see her reversing the Sandown form over this extra furlong.

In conclusion: this is a good opportunity for Inspiral to strengthen her position at the head of the 1000 Guineas betting, and her trainer John Gosden obviously knows exactly what is required to win the race (he has a good record in the race), but it will be her toughest test so far, and there are several fillies who could be capable of giving her race.
Report Figgis September 9, 2021 2:12 PM BST
Interested to see what Inspiral can show today. She won easily last time but didn't achieve a great deal on the clock. The bare level shown wouldn't even be good enough to take this event in many seasons, but this year's renewal looks weak on paper. She needs to step up considerably to justify her position in the Oaks betting, and even more to be considered a possible Guineas winner.
Report cryoftruth September 9, 2021 3:05 PM BST
I was disappointed with Inspiral today. I thought she would have beaten that lot far more easily. She will need to be a deal better than that to win a classic.

I was not surprised she was cut to 6/1 for the 1000 Guineas. That is because the layers always seem to cut the ante post odds of a horse after a win. Personally I am not at all convinced that Inspiral’s chances of winning a classic were improved by today’s win one iota, and have laid her her as a consequence as current odds are not reasonable value.

I do though rather hope she is a bit better than than as I did plunge heavily for me at 33/1 after her maiden success.
Report penzance September 9, 2021 3:09 PM BST
although she won by 3 3/4L thought she was more
workmanlike than impressive.Just my take on the race.
Report A_T September 9, 2021 3:34 PM BST
I was impressed - stretched away off a slow pace. But might be more of an Oaks type
Report cryoftruth September 9, 2021 3:50 PM BST
Yes she has a half brother by Dansili who stayed a mile and a half.
Report cryoftruth September 9, 2021 3:52 PM BST
She’s 10/1 for the oaks now and that might not look bad if she wins the fillies’ mile.
Report jamesp September 9, 2021 6:20 PM BST
It's a shame that the May Hill cut up quite badly, with Joseph O'Brien deciding not to run any of his four entries, so it ended up looking a fairly weak race on paper with Prosperous Voyage (OR 97) the only one of Inspiral's opponents to have put up a decent prior performance in a good quality race (in the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes). Like others, I thought Inspiral's performance today was rather workmanlike: although she never looked in any trouble, there was a stage when she had to be kept up to her work to edge ahead, before easing herself clear in the latter stages. This left me wondering whether she'll have the speed to win a Guineas next year. Although she's a daughter of a Guineas runner-up (Starscope), there's plenty of stamina in the pedigree, as COT rightly pointed out: the dam stayed 10.5f and has produced a couple of offspring by Dansili who were tried over 12f. She will certainly get 10f, possibly further. It will be interesting to see the sectional times: she hadn't achieved any startling fractions in her two previous races, but today's winning time looked good. 7/1 is plenty short enough for the Guineas [laying off some of the 33/1 seems shrewd, COT - but well done for getting those big odds in the first place!], and she's likely to face stiffer competition in the Fillies' Mile next time (including Group race winners like Majestic Glory, Mise En Scene, Agartha, Magical Lagoon).
Report jamesp September 9, 2021 6:48 PM BST
There were good performances this afternoon by the Andre Fabre-trained pair Fleur D'Iris and Zellie in the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale at Longchamp, traditional prep race for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac. Fleur D'Iris, who had been beaten just a short neck in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados previously, dictated the pace, quickened clear and won comfortably, but the eyecatcher once again was runner-up Zellie, who was given far too much to do by Hugo Besnier (held up in last place, well off the pace) and finished strongly with a couple of sectionals that were far quicker than anything else in the race (penultimate furlong of 10.77s followed by a final furlong of 11.17s on yielding ground). Both fillies are likely to run next in the Boussac and it's hard to predict which one will come out on top. Winning time was 2.14s faster than the colts' equivalent race (the Gr.3 Prix des Chenes) and the form has a solid look to it (with lightly raced maiden winners in third and fourth), though probably a few pounds below the Gr.2 form of Inspiral in today's May Hill and Agartha in the Debutante Stakes. It's completely speculative, but I've thrown a few quid on Zellie at 50/1 for the Guineas, simply on the basis that she may have more to offer in the Boussac and she goes on any ground, even though I suspect that Barzalona will opt to stay with Fleur D'Iris.
Report jamesp September 9, 2021 7:09 PM BST
Inspiral's sectional times don't really add much to the visual impression of her performance: her penultimate furlong 11.33s was virtually the same as Allayaali in the 6.5f nursery, with a final furlong of 12.26s. Her final two furlongs were obviously much quicker than anything else in the field and she was by far the strongest at the finish. It was one of the fastest renewals of the May Hill in recent years, but slower than Agnes Stewart (2014, good ground) and Turret Rocks (2015, good ground).
Report jamesp September 9, 2021 7:10 PM BST
Inspiral's sectional times don't really add much to the visual impression of her performance: her penultimate furlong 11.33s was virtually the same as Allayaali in the 6.5f nursery, with a final furlong of 12.26s. Her final two furlongs were obviously much quicker than anything else in the field and she was by far the strongest at the finish. It was one of the fastest renewals of the May Hill in recent years, but slower than Agnes Stewart (2014, good ground) and Turret Rocks (2015, good ground).
Report jamesp September 10, 2021 2:52 PM BST
Just eight declared runners in Sunday's Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh. Latest betting: 3/1 Homeless Songs, 100/30 Agartha, 7/2 Cairde Go Deo, 8 Discoveries, 8 Sunset Shiraz, 10 Prettiest, 16 Concert Hall, 80 Missing Matron.

Agartha sets the standard, having won the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes (always a good pointer to this race) quite impressively last time - she holds Sunset Shiraz, Discoveries and Concert Hall on that form. She's a most progressive filly and should be hard to peg back. Sunset Shiraz finished in eyecatching style in the Debutante and looks to be very much on the upgrade. Homeless Songs beat Agartha by a couple of lengths on debut in a maiden two months ago and has clearly been specially prepared for this race (she is owned by the race sponsor): she could be anything, but she lacks experience and Agartha has made considerable improvement since and may be able to reverse placings. Cairde Go Deo was a wide-margin winner of a C&D conditions race last time (runner-up was beaten next time at Tipperary) and has a lot to find on form but is clearly held in high regard.

It would be no surprise to see Homeless Songs win this and put herself in the Guineas picture, but Agartha has done nothing but improve in the last couple of months and I see no reason why she shouldn't continue to progress: 100/30 looks quite a decent price.
Report cryoftruth September 10, 2021 3:05 PM BST
Interesting thoughts thanks James
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl September 11, 2021 7:14 PM BST
If Homeless Songs absence is not 'niggle' related and she has been targeted at this all along
well no reason why she can't win. I would prefer if she already had that second run. But DKW is topman. She came very wide in her impressive win to mow down Agartha. She could be very
good. Cairde Go Deo seems well fancied by a stable in fantastic form. Then RL Moore stays with Prettiest and will
be interesting. Its a tough race to call.  Great write up from jamesp.
Report jamesp September 12, 2021 4:24 PM BST
Quick reaction to the Moyglare Stud Stakes result: there is every reason to think that the runner-up Agartha and third Sunset Shiraz ran more or less to their Debutante Stakes form (official ratings of 109 and 104, once again separated by two lengths), so I rate this win by Discoveries the best performance by a juvenile filly so far this season (111+) and I have now had my first proper (large) bet on next year's Guineas on Jessica Harrington's filly at 20/1. Much better value than Inspiral at this stage. She is clearly a highly progressive filly with loads of physical scope and is bred to be the real deal (full sister to Alpha Centauri).
Report FOYLESWAR September 12, 2021 8:36 PM BST
i was impressed by that performance also james and have taken the 20/1 each way . my only bet so far on the gns good luck !
Report roadrunner46 September 12, 2021 10:20 PM BST
last years results 2020

moyglare slow 4.19

national stakes slow 5.53

this year 2021

moyglare slow 4.10

national stakes slow 3.27

good ground in the going description 2020/2021 obviously a bit more faster this year, that is not reflected in this years moyglare race time, as you say, very well related and is a 20/1 shot. goodluck
Report Figgis September 12, 2021 11:46 PM BST
Even if you rate Native Trail's time performance as close to Guineas winning class, and I do (not that I'll be backing him for it at this stage), it leaves the Moyglare some way behind the level normally needed to win a 1ooo. I have Agartha running to pretty much the same as when she won the Debutante (1lb lower today), which again is well short of Guineas winning level. Discoveries has obviously made significant improvement from her previous efforts and was a deserved winner, but I wouldn't say she was value for any more than the bare result.

As we've seen in recent years fillies can make big unexpected improvement from 2 to 3. Mother Earth, Hermosa and Billesdon Brook certainly weren't on my radar as likely Classic winners in their 2yo season. Maybe Discoveries can do likewise, but so could any of the others, and she's not for me even at a big price.
Report roadrunner46 September 13, 2021 12:59 PM BST
watched both those races yesterday, last years races and the times difference this year, leads me to think, one was run very slow and the other much faster last year, with both winners of the guineas in those races, and the way coolmore have campaigned their horses recently, concert hall could improve massively Crazy very difficult to assess from
visual aspect discoveries, did look like it didn't really have a race, zain claudette is horse i like, wouldn't have a clue if that can win a guineas
Report jamesp September 13, 2021 2:24 PM BST
It's always good to get the views and thoughts of other experts and commentators. These are the comments of three reporters at the Racing Post:

"Agartha is not easily passed so for Discoveries to do it in the Moyglare stamps her down as a genuine 1,000 Guineas contender. Homeless Songs and Cairde Go Deo didn't run their races, but there was still plenty of substance to the form and, if the ground is on the fast side at Newmarket next May, she will go there with a live chance. I wouldn't give up on Agartha either." [David Jennings, deputy Irish editor]

"We saw two very legitimate contenders for the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas in Native Trail and Discoveries. Given she physically has the potential to progress a fair deal over the winter, Discoveries could be a touch overpriced at 20-1 for Newmarket glory." [Mark Boylan, reporter]

"In the case of Discoveries, it is somewhat less clear-cut as the Moyglare is the type of race that excuses might well be sought for the fillies she beat on Sunday. On saying that, she is clearly on the up and if she can improve at three the way her sister Alpha Centauri did, she could well be capable of something special." [Justin O'Hanlon, reporter]
Report penzance September 13, 2021 2:50 PM BST
if Zain Claudette was trained by a bigger name, don't
think she would be as big a price for the 1000G as she
is right now (25/1) with a couple of firms.
Report jamesp September 13, 2021 5:25 PM BST
The progressive Zain Claudette would certainly be a shorter price for the Guineas if she were trained by a bigger 'name'. Her jockey said after the Lowther that she'll have no problem getting further than 6f (he struggled to pull her up) and the current intention is to aim her at the Guineas following her next run in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes. Any previous doubts about No Nay Never being capable of siring a top-class filly miler have been largely dispelled this year by the Gr.1 exploits of Alcohol Free. She's a relaxed and straightforward filly, so she might well get a mile. However, the Cheveley Park Stakes will be a tougher test, and my fancy for that race is Ger Lyons' unbeaten filly Sacred Bridge (now 11/4 from 6/1 for that race, and as short as 16/1 for the Guineas).
Report jamesp September 13, 2021 6:12 PM BST
Top-rated juvenile fillies with Timeform (pre-Moyglare):
110p Sacred Bridge
106 Agartha
106 Quick Suzy
106 Sandrine

Top-rated juvenile fillies on latest Racing Post Ratings (RPR):
110 Discoveries
109 Sacred Bridge
108 Inspiral
108 Agartha
108 Zain Claudette
108 Sandrine
106 Accakaba
106 Fleur D'Iris

Since the start of the millennium the median RPR for 1000 Guineas winning performances has been 115. Here are the most recent Guineas winners with their Guineas-winning RPR and their highest juvenile RPR (in brackets). RPRs are only one measure of performance (and subject to revision), and one should always make use of several different sets of data/ratings (if one doesn't create one's own ratings), but they're as good a single guide as any. The most difficult recent Guineas winners to pick on juvenile form include Billesdon Brook, Winter, Legatissimo, Blue Bunting, Ghanaati and Virginia Waters (most of whom didn't contest Group races at two). Fillies that achieved high ratings at two have rarely needed to improve much over the winter to be live Guineas contenders.

2021 Mother Earth 113 (111)
2020 Love 116 (111)
2019 Hermosa 113 (110)
2018 Billesdon Brook 116 (100)
2017 Winter 117 (82)
2016 Minding 121 (119)
2015 Legatissimo 117 (100)
2014 Miss France 111 (114)
2013 Sky Lantern 112 (110)
2012 Homecoming Queen 117 (104)
2011 Blue Bunting 116 (99)
2010 Special Duty 111 (117)
2009 Ghanaati 115 (87)
2008 Natagora 113 (117)
2007 Finsceal Beo 121 (120)
2006 Speciosa 114 (108)
2005 Virginia Waters 115 (98)
2004 Attraction 115 (117)
2003 Russian Rhythm 118 (114)
2002 Kazzia 112 (105)
2001 Ameerat 115 (103)
2000 Lahan 115 (104)
1999 Wince 114 (101)
1998 Cape Verdi 124 (112)
1997 Sleepytime 118 (101)
1996 Bosra Sham 115 (116)
1995 Harayir 116 (114)
1994 Las Meninas 120 (108)
1993 Sayyedati 118 (115)
1992 Hatoof 116 (116)
1991 Shadayid 120 (124)
Report FOYLESWAR September 14, 2021 4:39 PM BST
jessie harrington says discoveries been put away till next season ,says she had entries in fillies mile and the prix macel on arc weekend but will be put away ,till next season the 1,000 gns according to timeform.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl September 15, 2021 12:49 PM BST
Thanks for that update Foyleswar. To me if I was 'on' Discoveries already I would take this
putting aside as a plus. Jesse is good at her job. I watched the 'Moyglare' close enough to her
to observe her demeanor. In my opinion she was really cool and not surprised at all by Discoveries
fine performance.
Definitely it was the target for this filly, and Jesse does this targeting job very well indeed.
Now what to make of the 'Discoveries' performance though! Lets start with Prettiest who never
looked likely. Yet was beaten just over 6 lengths. This after Ryan Moore eased off late on. The Ger Lyons
filly faded badly and may not have given of her best. Agartha had every chance as did DKW's
filly. Discoveries from the 'Niarchos' barn is you all know a full sister to Alpha Centauri.
A concern for ante-post backers here is that 'Centauri' did not make Newmarket. She probably
disappointed on her first run as a 3yr old in mid April. Then off till she bounced back to win the Irish
1000 Guineas in late May under Colm O Donoghue. The Niarchos barn has produced great horses from this dam-line.
Miesque included with plenty others. Its a top producing line and no doubt 'Discoveries'
previous run was just a prep for the target race. (Hindsight dammit). So can it do the business
May 1st 2022. You pay to find out with the 20/1 disappearing now 16/1 seems best price available.
She will have an outstanding chance with plenty improvement to come and she could very well add to her
immediate families outstanding achievements on the racetracks. There is none better bred to do so.
As an aside to the main matter Stavros Niarchos built his empire on the shipping and was no friend
to his great rival Aristotle Onassis. Both Greeks and bitter rivals. I would recommend the book 'Ari'
The Life and Times of Aristotle Onassis as a great read. For anyone bored like myself of this Covid.
Report jamesp September 15, 2021 5:27 PM BST
I agree, it's probably no bad thing that Discoveries is going to be put away now for the Guineas. I'm sure she'll have no problem finding the extra few pounds improvement over the winter to have a potentially winning chance in the Guineas. It should be noted that the trainer believes the filly was unsuited by soft ground in the Debutante Stakes. It's worth reading her post-race comments after the Moyglare:

"The ground was soft for the Debutante and we knew that like her sister she will only go on quick. This is lovely fast ground with lots of grass and that made the difference, plus maybe the three weeks in between which allowed her to strengthen up and come forward. We thought she'd improve with better ground and she'd done a good bit of work earlier in the week. I don't know where we go, as today was the plan. She's a lovely, lovely filly and is completely different to Alpha Centauri, who was a big grey filly. This filly was not as big, but she has done a lot of growing. She has a lovely temperament and is not as feisty as Alpha. Alpine Star looked completely different again. She was long and low, not very big. This is what we work towards and to have two Group 1 winners this weekend is amazing. She will definitely step up to a mile in time. We never got the chance to step Alpha Centauri beyond a mile, but we might have done had she not been injured."

This was followed yesterday by confirmation that she will be aimed at the Guineas: "Discoveries is not going to run again this year. She’s a big filly who has had four runs, and I think that’s enough for her. She’s won her Group 1, and it would be terrible to go back and get beaten in another Group 1, so I’m going to leave her be. That [1000 Guineas] is where she will go."

PS One shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Discoveries had only a short-head to spare over Aidan O'Brien's newcomer Tuesday (a full-sister to Minding) in a Curragh maiden on 25 June. The Ballydoyle filly has not been seen since and has no future entries, but is one to watch out for whenever she next runs.
Report cryoftruth September 16, 2021 12:29 PM BST
Discoveries is from one truly great female line, with so many group one winners. Miesque is obviously a complete legend and all time great, and Alpha Centauri was also immensely talented.
Discoveries improving a stone or more from 2 to 3 would be no great shock would it?
Report jamesp September 20, 2021 3:53 PM BST
There are a couple of potentially important Guineas pointer races this weekend.

The Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes (on Friday) has produced several Guineas winners in recent years and it looks an open-looking renewal, with the usual mixture of proven Group race performers and fillies stepping up from maiden/novice company. 16 entries are headed by the progressive Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes winner Majestic Glory (7/2); Ralph Beckett's springer in the market Girl On Film (4/1 from 10/1), who was well-fancied when making a winning debut at the July Course; Roger Charlton's unbeaten Jumbly (4/1), daughter of Gr.1 winner Thistle Bird, who was impressive at Kempton last time; Ger Lyons' Juncture (9/2), runner-up to Agartha in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes, who may have more to offer; Oscula (11/2), third in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados last time, following a Gr.3 win at Deauville; Hello You (8/1), third in the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes and possibly a doubtful stayer; Sense Of Duty (8/1), a wide-margin 6f Newbury maiden winner for William Haggas; 10/1 bar. It looks a very tough race to call but could have a bearing on the betting for the Guineas.

The Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (on Saturday) has a long track record of producing Guineas winners and also-rans. 15 entries are headed by unbeaten Sacred Bridge (11/4), impressive winner of a Gr.3 race in Ireland last time; Zain Claudette (4/1) and Sandrine (4/1), first and second in the Gr.2 Lowther Stakes last time, with slight preference for the progressive Lowther winner, though they are weighted to dead-heat on that form; Desert Dreamer (10/1), who was a bit unlucky last time in the Lowther (saddle slipped, should have finished closer to front pair); Tenebrism (10/1), off the track since making a winnning debut for Aidan O'Brien at the end of March (in the maiden won by Poetic Flare 12 months earlier) - she's clearly had problems of some kind, but she's a daughter of dual Gr.1 winning miler Immortal Verse and could be anything; the speedy Flotus (10/1), who finally came good with an impressive Listed win at Ripon last time; 12/1 bar. I'm sticking with Sacred Bridge, who was so impressive last time at the Curragh and looked good value at 6/1 for this race following that victory, but I'm not underestimating the Lowther principals, and it will be fascinating to see how Tenebrism gets on if she's allowed to take her chance (though the O'Brien juveniles have not been setting the world alight in recent weeks).
Report jamesp September 22, 2021 1:00 PM BST
Just had my second 'proper' bet for the 1000 Guineas. Andre Fabre's filly Raclette has only won a couple of slowly-run soft ground minor races thus far, most recently a mile conditions race at Chantilly very easily by 4 lengths. Normally I don't pay too much attention to home reputations unless they're backed up by smart performances on the track, but in this case the vibes are quite compelling and she could be a very high class filly in the making. Following the filly's impressive win last Friday, Fabre said: "She was very impressive last time out and she is probably one of the best fillies I have ever trained – she’s got everything. She has acceleration, a wonderful temperament, so far she is doing everything right. We’ll go for the Boussac with her next. It is quite a big step going from a conditions race to a Group One, but she was way better than her opponents last time. I can’t see why quicker ground would be an issue as she has a beautiful action. She has already won over a mile so the dream would be the Prix de Diane and the Arc, but there’s also a lot of speed on the dam’s side so hopefully she’d go for the Guineas first." That'll do for me. Considering Fabre has other smart juvenile fillies in his care this season, including the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale winner Fleur D'Iris and runner-up Zellie, this is a remarkably positive statement. 25/1 with Hills (only 14/1 with Ladbroke and Coral).

Owned by Juddmonte Stud, she is by Frankel out of multiple American Gr.1 winner Emollient (whose great-grand-dam was Coup De Genie, winner of the Gr.1 Prix Morny and Gr.1 Prix de la Salamandre, narrowly beaten in the 1994 1000 Guineas).
Report A_T September 22, 2021 1:46 PM BST
Raclette has a full brother with Ger Lyons called License - 1 from 1 in a 9.5f race in June. I think Raclette may be more of an Oaks filly but sometimes these types are sharp enough to win a Guineas before they move up.
Report cryoftruth September 22, 2021 9:04 PM BST
James
That is a very nice post and very interesting, for which thank you.
Report Figgis September 25, 2021 12:57 PM BST
I've revised Native Trail's performance, I think it was more Gp2 than Gp1, meaning I have the Moyglare as one of the worst renewals in years. For me, the Cheveley Park fillies are well ahead. As things stand, I still rate Sandrine a few pounds ahead of Zain Claudette, as aside from Sandrine conceding her 3lbs last time I also have her running 4lbs below her Albany win. That said, Sacred Bridge looks a worthy fav, as she looked to put up a Gp1 performance in a Gp3 last time out. As for the Guineas, regardless of who wins today, even though I think these fillies are far ahead of the Moyglare form I wouldn't be confident about any of them being as good over a mile.
Report penzance September 25, 2021 2:54 PM BST
good performance by the winner on only her
2nd run.Zain Claudette & Sacred Bridge very
disappointing today,as was Sandrine.Although
they were drawn 1,2,3.
Report jamesp September 25, 2021 2:58 PM BST
Hi Figgis, interesting as always to read your thoughts. We'll simply have to agree to disagree about the Moyglare form. I think this year's renewal is well up to scratch, with Discoveries' official rating of 111 leaving her only a few pounds improvement to find over the winter to be a genuine Guineas contender and potential winner.

The big question now is whether the Cheveley Park winner Tenebrism will stay a mile. If she stays a mile next year she's going to be very hard to beat in the Guineas. Her turn of foot today was exceptional, and it was made even more impressive by the fact that the runner-up Flotus was not stopping at the line - the chasing pack were not making up any ground on Flotus, and yet Tenebrism made up several lengths and swept past her. After six months off the track since a maiden win this was a remarkable performance. She's clearly a very fast filly and it's too early to judge how much of a speed influence Caravaggio will prove to be: I guess he will get his share of winning milers eventually, but whether Tenebrism will get a mile is a complete unknown at this stage. 8/1 for the Guineas is plenty short enough, given the doubts.
Report Figgis September 25, 2021 3:31 PM BST
If she stays a mile next year she's going to be very hard to beat in the Guineas

Jamesp, couldn't agree more. Even though I don't think the Middle Park was a vintage race Tenebrism still compares very favourably and, in my view, ran to a figure better than an average Guineas winner. Only a very small few have bettered it. But will she stay? I haven't a clue Laugh
Report A_T September 25, 2021 3:40 PM BST
can't see her staying a mile - breeding is all speed
Report Figgis September 25, 2021 3:44 PM BST
My big doubt would be the fact that O'Brien has kept her to 6f, as that usually means the yard think of them more as a sprinter. However, as she's had an interrupted season it's possible with more experience she would've been stepped up in trip at some point. No surprise if she wins but I won't be backing her ante post.
Report jamesp September 25, 2021 3:46 PM BST
Aidan O'Brien referred afterwards to the filly's 'blistering speed' and seems to admit he doesn't know whether she would get a mile in the Guineas:

"I'd say there's a lot [more to come]. She was barely ready but there is only one Cheveley Park and she has such blistering speed it would be unfair to not let her take her chance. I'd imagine she'd get seven furlongs but speed is her thing. If she was to go again she could go to America for the Breeders' Cup but we'll see what the lads want to do. You'd never be surprised [on going to the Guineas] when they have that much class. That helps them get a mile but she wouldn't get much further than that. She can be ridden so patiently and has such a turn of toe that anything is possible."

It will be interesting to see how she acquits herself round the tight mile at Del Mar, if they decide to let her take her chance in the Breeders' Cup. The dam was a top-class miler, but Tenebrism seems to take more after her sire Caravaggio.
Report Figgis September 25, 2021 4:01 PM BST
Yes jamesp, says it all really. Equinome tested no doubt.
Report cryoftruth September 26, 2021 8:50 AM BST
Tenebrism does have some stamina in her pedigree. The dam was a miler for starters and her family have both Sadlers Wells and Mill Reef In there.
Whether she stays is obviously open to doubt because of her sire and her own serious speed though. But its not that sure either way.
Report jamesp September 26, 2021 3:10 PM BST
The Moyglare form received a welcome boost this afternoon when Concert Hall (beaten nearly four lengths by Discoveries in the Moyglare) readily won the Gr.3 Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh. This is often a decent contest (it's been won by subsequent classic winners Qualify and Hermosa in recent years) and Concert Hall (by Dubawi out of Oaks winner Was) is developing into quite a smart filly, reversing Moyglare placings with Sunset Shiraz (second, beaten a length). She will be even better when stepped up to a mile plus. Seisai finished a further neck back in third, paying a compliment to her stablemate Agartha, who beat her nearly five lengths in the Debutante Stakes. Impressive maiden winners Trevaunance and Cigamia finished fourth and fifth, clear of the remainder, and the form has a very solid look to it.
Report Figgis September 26, 2021 4:26 PM BST
Jamesp, we see things very differently again on this one. I thought the Weld looked an awful renewal before and afterwards. Not even true Listed class in my book.
Report Figgis September 26, 2021 4:30 PM BST
And the time doesn't really enhance it, Concert Hall comes out only about 8lbs better than the maiden winner earlier, which looked a pretty ordinary maiden winner to me.
Report jamesp September 27, 2021 5:18 PM BST
Yes Figgis, the winning time was very ordinary due to the sedate early pace, but I suspect that Concert Hall will prove to be quite a bit better than that maiden winner (though he too looks a useful prospect). She's on the upgrade and likely to be much better suited by a stronger pace and a longer trip, and she did well in the circumstances to come from the rear in a steadily run race over 7f.
Report FOYLESWAR September 27, 2021 8:03 PM BST
concert hall going the right way and has a fair bit of exp which the last 3 gns winners also from this yard had ,fillies mile next and 25/1  which i have had some each way  is  a fair price imo.
Report jamesp September 29, 2021 11:34 AM BST
Just 10 fillies have been left in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Sunday, with Andre Fabre appearing to hold a very strong hand with three of the entries: Raclette, Zellie and Fleur D'Iris. Unbeaten Raclette is held in very high regard (see earlier comments), while Fleur D'Iris and Zellie finished first and second in the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale last time (Zellie given too much to do). The other entries are Agartha (runner-up to Discoveries in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes), Natasha (winner of a couple of novice events, Frankel half-sister to multiple Gr.1 winner Almanzor), Oscula (third in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes last time), History (progressive Aidan O'Brien trained Galileo filly, recent Gowran maiden winner), Times Square (outclassed; third in a Listed race last time), Who Knows (narrow winner of the Gr.3 Prix Francois Boutin last time), and Acer Alley (narrow winner of the Gr.3 Prix la Rochette last time). Oscula and Who Knows also hold an entry in the Gr.1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Sunday.

A competitive-looking renewal. My hopes are pinned on Raclette, but I would also like to see a bold show from Agartha (to boost the form of Discoveries). Fabre's two other entries are smart types and should not be underestimated. Natasha and History are likely improvers from big yards and therefore respected.
Report differentdrum September 29, 2021 12:05 PM BST
I think this year's 2yo's have been a very uninspiring bunch. Can't remember so few 'next comings'.

As for Sunday the weather is likely to cast a huge cloud over the form and if a french horse wins how likely would it be to travel?
Report penzance September 29, 2021 12:17 PM BST
Natasha is hard to way up,3/4 of her rivals lto
were making their debuts and the other she had
already finished in front of (Making Music).
Speak who beat her on her debut was well btn by
Inspiral in the May Hill by nearly 12L at the end.
As for Agartha do you reckon she'll run?,had a busy
season to date.
Report penzance September 29, 2021 12:18 PM BST
*weigh
Report LoyalHoncho September 29, 2021 3:51 PM BST
Thanks for the write up jamesp.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl September 30, 2021 3:47 PM BST
Yes jamesp is excellent and keeps us updated. The 1000 guineas winner could come from the Gr.1 in France this Sunday. Taking stock of the recent results Concert Hall obviously improved from the Moyglare. Discoveries should improve plenty as well. Fully entitled to. I would be very afraid of the winner of the Cheveley Park. Very impressive. The comments made after by connections are of the usual variety. I would travel miles to hear this great man tell us stories/yarns in the mold of the old seanochai (storyteller) who was to be found in many Irish pubs in olden times. I listened once to this great man tell us the funny-side of his trip to the Kentucky Derby. His horse was last in the rain. This was priceless storytelling. A really funny yarn, perhaps not all fact but he so funny. But to get back to the 1000 guineas Andre Fabre is top man but has a lot of crossover with the Irish outfit so I would be wary. He most likely will stay at home. Ger Lyons filly was disappointing with the jockeys comments after the Moyglare most 'surprising'. Looking forward to Sunday and hopefully jamesp will be greening up.
Report jamesp October 1, 2021 3:19 PM BST
Interesting differences of opinion in the betting for the Boussac on Sunday. Naturally enough, Raclette (one of my Guineas fancies) is terrible value based on ratings and what she's actually achieved. It's all based on her very high home reputation. If I were coming at this race without a Guineas interest, I would be tempted by 5/1 Agartha or 12/1 each-way Zellie.
Current betting: 11/8 Raclette (as short as 10/11 with Hills), 5/1 Agartha (as short as 11/4 with Power), 11/2 Fleur D'Iris, 12 Natasha, 12 Zellie, 20 Acer Alley, 20 Oscula, 25 bar.
Aidan O'Brien's filly History was taken out of the race yesterday.
Report Adelaide October 1, 2021 4:47 PM BST
Raclette won't run if the going is heavy and may be rerouted to Newmarket next week.. According to Fabre this morning..
Report jamesp October 1, 2021 6:21 PM BST
Thanks for the update. Yes, she might end up running in the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes (the race Fabre used for subsequent 1000 Guineas winner Miss France a few years ago) or possibly even the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile, for which she would need to be supplemented. Both those races take place next Friday. Another hint that Fabre is seriously considering a tilt at the Guineas with this filly.
Report jamesp October 2, 2021 2:27 PM BST
As expected, Raclette has been entered for the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes next Friday, as a back-up in case she misses the Boussac.

Just 10 entries remain in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile. Inspiral seems to have scared off most of the opposition. Latest betting: evs Inspiral, 6 Mise En Scene, 10 Concert Hall, 11 Wild Beauty, 12 Agartha, 12 Magical Lagoon, 14 Bouquet, 14 Majestic Glory, 16 Cachet, 33 Prosperous Voyage. Inspiral is a worthy favourite, but Mise En Scene and Concert Hall should appreciate the step up to a mile and have plenty of scope for further improvement. Wild Beauty won a Gr.1 event at Woodbine and could be on the upgrade (though held on earlier form by Inspiral). Magical Lagoon (a Galileo half-sister to King George winner Novellist) did well to win a Gr.3 race over this trip at the Curragh on just her second start, but the form has been let down by the second and fourth.
Report jamesp October 2, 2021 3:41 PM BST
Heavy rain is forecast for the Paris area this evening, all night and all tomorrow morning until lunchtime, so it seems inevitable (if the forecast is accurate) that the going at Longchamp will be very testing, and Raclette will probably be rerouted to Newmarket.
Report FOYLESWAR October 3, 2021 1:48 PM BST
fabre ...saving raclette for next year!
Report jamesp October 4, 2021 10:53 AM BST
Looking forward to seeing Raclette in action at Newmarket on Friday. If she's the best of Fabre's juvenile fillies this season, she must be better than yesterday's winner of the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac - stablemate Zellie - which suggests that she could be very smart indeed.

It was gratifying to see Zellie win at the highest level yesterday. I thought she had been given too much to do in her two previous races: after she finished strongly in the Prix Six Perfections I remarked "Zellie looks the ideal type for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac" (August 12), and after the Prix d'Aumale I admitted that I'd had a few quid on her for the Guineas, "I've thrown a few quid on Zellie at 50/1 for the Guineas, simply on the basis that she may have more to offer in the Boussac" (September 9). Her stablemate Fleur D'Iris probably didn't act on the heavy ground, and a few others notably Agartha failed to last home over the trip in testing conditions, but it proved no problem for Zellie who once again showed an excellent turn of foot to win comfortably from an outsider who is reportedly a very difficult and complicated filly and who undoubtedly showed huge improvement on her previous form. There was a good distance back to the third and the form looks solid for the grade. The winner has been rated RPR 112 by the Racing Post, second only (jointly with Flotus) to the Cheveley Park winner Tenebrism (117). She looks a more than capable possible deputy for Raclette in next year's Guineas. Fabre remarked afterwards: "She is a nice, uncomplicated filly who has been so consistent. She is finished for the season and I don't think she'll go much further than a mile. It'll be either the 1000 Guineas or the Pouliches."
Report A_T October 4, 2021 11:24 AM BST
I saw Fabre interviewed yesterday saying she was not coming and being saved for next year
Report jamesp October 4, 2021 12:52 PM BST
Oh, that's a shame! Sad Just scrolled through yesterday's ITV coverage and found the short interview with Fabre, which I missed the first time. I wonder why they had the sudden change of plan.
Report Adelaide October 4, 2021 2:10 PM BST
20/1 for next year's Arc..  bit early for me..
Report Adelaide October 4, 2021 2:12 PM BST
Amazing she's even quoted really, after just 2 modest races..
Report FOYLESWAR October 5, 2021 9:48 PM BST
the last 3 guineas winners hermosa, love and mother earth  were trained by aiden o,brien ,all 3 had plenty of exp at 2 ie 6 races or more showing improvement  ,all 3 were relativly  overlooked in the ante post markets and could be backed at decent  odds over the winter ,all 3 had good group race form without looking superstars at 2 ,all 3 improved at 3 . aiden  is a master at having them spot on for the gns .all 3 iirc ran in the fillies mile without winning ., the key thing seems to be getting a lot of exp into these fillies bringing them along gradually without bottoming them  at two . with natural improvement over the winter they are spot on for the gns in may. concert hall looks to me to  be ballydoyles gns horse for next year .
she will most  likely run in the fillies mile at ascot in a few weeks time for which she is around 10/1 that does not interest me and i can see her running well without winning so her price for the gns should not shorten too much if at all ,its not about the fillies mile the gns is the target . her form atm is a fair bit short of what we would expect of  a potential gns winner but hermosa ,love,and mother earth had very similar profiles  and all improved to win the guineas  she is stoutly bred and should relish the mile and will get further 25/1 with billie hills is  too big imo  all being well, and i have had my biggest bet ever each way and will continue chipping away at that price good luck the clues are there! .
Report jamesp October 6, 2021 10:50 AM BST
Concert Hall is one of nine confirmed runners in Friday's Fillies' Mile at Newmarket. She hasn't achieved as much as Love at this stage of her career (Love had already won the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes), but she appears to be improving with each race and is not without a chance, stepping up to a mile for the first time. She's likely to need further than a mile next year, but in other respects she fits the recent O'Brien Guineas profile. She and Mise En Scene look like the main dangers to Inspiral in Friday's contest.
Report FOYLESWAR October 6, 2021 11:13 AM BST
soz my bad fillies mile at headquarters this friday ^^^^ didnt realise it was that close ,should be informative.
Report jamesp October 8, 2021 11:59 AM BST
Had a small each way interest 33/1 Majestic Glory in today's Gr.1 Fillies' Mile. She holds Wild Beauty (8/1) on earlier Sweet Solera Stakes form and was reportedly unsuited by the good to firm ground last time in the Rockfel. Back on an easier surface today, she looks overpriced at 33/1, though she'll need to be back to her best to finish in front of Inspiral, Mise En Scene and Concert Hall, who bring the strongest form to this race.
Report Figgis October 8, 2021 12:35 PM BST
I was disappointed with Inspiral today. I thought she would have beaten that lot far more easily. She will need to be a deal better than that to win a classic.

COT, I think you were being a bit pessimistic there. The way the race was run there wasn't a lot more she could do. I think she's got the speed for an Oaks, at least, I'll reserve judgement on the Guineas until after today's race. Although she probably won't be any value if it turns out she is as today's opposition looks very poor indeed and she may well hammer them without even proving she's up to winning a Guineas. I still say the Irish form has been dire, but we'll find out more today.
Report FOYLESWAR October 8, 2021 2:49 PM BST
good luck james ,have backed wild beauty and bouquet yesterday put them up on the horse racing forum , inspiral gonna be tough to beat having easily swept past wild beauty already at sandown but intersting wild b s connections take her on again and this one is the only group/grade 1 winner in the line up having won cosily at woodbine less than 3 weeks ago ,only 3 pound behind inspiral on official ratings and slightly diff ground today 12/1 yesterday too big imo . also had a few bob on bouquet stepping up in class markedly but a big price each way 33/1 and they must think a fair bit of her , probably a bridge too far but an unknown and  a price will do for me.
Report jamesp October 8, 2021 4:18 PM BST
Another impressive performance by Inspiral this afternoon, but my initial reaction is that she did not need to improve on her previous form to win as she did. In fact, Prosperous Voyage finished closer to her this time (compared with the May Hill at Doncaster), and with the placed fillies (separated by a neck) officially rated 101 and 103, I think this was just an average renewal. Cachet (third) had been runner-up in the Rockfel and before that had been beaten nearly six lengths behind Fleur D'Iris and Zellie over this trip in France. Lines of form involving Cachet and Oscula (second and third in the Rockfel; Oscula then beaten nearly five lengths by Zellie in the Boussac) suggest that Zellie has the beating of Inspiral. Mise En Scene didn't seem to handle the dip but finished strongly and is probably capable of a higher rating in future. Concert Hall was disappointing and failed to run up to her official rating: perhaps she's had enough for this season, or maybe she's not progressing as much as initially thought. Inspiral remains an exciting prospect, but I'm still not totally convinced (certainly not sufficiently impressed to be remotely tempted to take 3/1 for the Guineas). If Tenebrism gets the mile she'll win the Guineas, in my opinion; otherwise, I'm happy to take my chances with Discoveries, Raclette and Zellie.
Report penzance October 8, 2021 4:32 PM BST
3/1 for a race 7 months away.
The ones who backed her early A/P are in a lovely position
now.
WD them (GL).
Report Figgis October 8, 2021 4:54 PM BST
I have marginal improvements from the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, with the 5th and 6th running pretty much bang to form. So a very solid piece of form. Have to say though that still leaves Inspiral a few pounds short of a typical Guineas winner and just confirms what I thought going into the race. If we get another Guineas like this year then she could just about scrape a win, and of course she could improve again, but she's well under priced at present odds. I do think, however, she has a massive chance of winning an Oaks if she trains on. Personally I'd be training her for Epsom rather than possibly peaking her for Newmarket.
Report A_T October 8, 2021 6:46 PM BST
you would expect a horse to improve between now and May
Report A_T October 8, 2021 6:46 PM BST
*2yo horse
Report Figgis October 8, 2021 7:26 PM BST
You would expect some 2yos to improve between now and May. The formbook and ante post lists gone by are full of 2yos that didn't improve a jot and even went backwards. Some 2yos will improve but it's guessing which ones. Of the last five Guineas winners I personally didn't expect Mother Earth, Hermosa, Billesdon Brook and Winter to improve to the top of the pile, and judging by their ante post prices neither did most people. If people want to take 3/1 in the hope that Inspiral will find another 4 or 5lbs that's up to them, but not for me.
Report Figgis October 8, 2021 7:59 PM BST
John Gosden said: "We'll see how she comes through the winter as regards next year but if we have a cold one with those east winds we could go straight for the 1,000 Guineas".

It looks like the Guineas is definitely the plan then. I can see another Rainbow View scenario.
Report .Marksman. October 8, 2021 8:11 PM BST
Well spotted Figgis.  I had to look up Rainbow View and her form figures and races run in are almost I identical to Inspiral's.
From John Gosden's comment if it is a cold winter and she isn't ready to run in a trial, she might need the race in the Guineas.  I personally don't believe this stuff about climate emergency and the Arctic "overheating" so a cold winter is a possibility imo.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl October 8, 2021 8:58 PM BST
Ballydoyle have central heating so I expect a nicely tanned 'Tennebrism' to turn up trained to the minute ready to run for her life by the master trainer. I may be wrong but todays win by the 2022 1000 Guineas favourite was just not inspiring as the opposition was moderate imho. The lads may not go to the Breeders according to the maestro and she has every chance of getting the mile on her dams side. No fear of of cold or draughts in Tipperary.
Report Figgis October 8, 2021 9:02 PM BST
I had to look up Rainbow View

Marksman, unfortunately I'm old enough to remember Grin
Report cryoftruth October 9, 2021 4:42 PM BST
Well I am sitting on a William Hills voucher saying 33/1 Inspiral for the 1000 Guineas and a B365 one for 16/1.

She has now won with a bit of give as well as good to firm, and is a course and distance winner with plenty of scope, she has been brought through expertly and if not fantastically exciting, has seemingly outclassed all her rivals to date. She seems to have every chance of progressing and would seem to be a legitimate favourite. Although some of the ones she has trounced may not be much good, they cannot all be useless.

Not sure Rainbow View’s past record has anything at all to do with Inspiral’s chances personally.

Would I back Inspiral at 3/1? Nope. But I am not laying off either.
Report Figgis October 9, 2021 5:16 PM BST
Not sure Rainbow View’s past record has anything at all to do with Inspiral’s chances personally

I mean Rainbow View was a good 2yo, although a bit overrated, trained for the Guineas when she wasn't quite fast enough for it. Was then aimed at the Oaks but disappointed. I can see similar happening here. I would be more interested in Inspiral if she was going to be trained specifically for the Oaks, but in these circumstances I'll pass.
Report cryoftruth October 9, 2021 5:32 PM BST
There is no certainty that Inspiral will stay 12 furlongs figgis. Mind you I have a small bet in her at 16s for that too.

I tried to get odds about Inspiral doing the Guineas Oaks double without success.

Inspiral was cantering all over those fillies on Friday after 6 and 7 furlongs. Her natural pace is going to make her very effective at a mile and maybe 10 furlongs.

Not sure why you have taken against Inspiral?

Unbeaten in 4 runs.
A group one winner.
Seemingly acts well with give and on fast ground.
Has physical scope to improve.
By the greatest 2000 Guineas winner out of a 1000 Guineas second she is superbly bred and has the best jockey riding her.

What is there not to like about her?
Report Figgis October 9, 2021 6:00 PM BST
There is no certainty that Inspiral will stay 12 furlongs figgis

True, I just think if she stays she definitely has enough speed for the Oaks, whereas she'll need to find more for a typical Guineas. That said, I rarely touch ante post now unless it's a double figure price, so wouldn't be backing her for Epsom now even if that was the target.

What is there not to like about her?

At the 33/1 you've got? Nothing. At 3/1? There's plenty.
Report Adelaide October 10, 2021 5:07 PM BST
.what a run from Limiti di Greccio today in the Staffordstown Stud stakes at The Curragh over a mile.. boxed in all the way and surely value for 5 lengths...  I think this makes Panama Red one of the best Irish fillies, leaving Tenebrism out of it...  Moyglare Stud form let down again, as usual a race always over rated..

.. I don't know if the jockey got a suspension because he hampered O'Brien's Lullaby.  Perhaps they're more lenient in Ireland, I feel sure he'd be suspended over here, maybe 4 days..  anyone else see it?...
Report Figgis October 10, 2021 5:55 PM BST
she has every chance of getting the mile on her dams side

I read what O'Brien said after the Cheveley Park, he was saying he had her down to run over 7f and she may get a mile. I reckoned this was probably just wishful thinking on his part. However I saw what he said after her debut win over 5f in May, and even back then, without prompting, he mentioned a mile as being a possibility. So it does seem as though running her in the Guineas would be more than just a long shot punt. To put her Cheveley Park win into context I have the second filly, Flotus, running a couple of pounds faster than Inspiral ever has. On ability alone I have Tenebrism already good enough to have taken eight of the last ten Guineas. The two she wouldn't have won were won by O'Brien fillies.

So of the two at the head of the betting I have the fav an obvious stayer but needing to improve unless it's a substandard renewal. I have the second fav already good enough but a doubtful stayer. For a bet I will be waiting until next year, but on the balance of things as they stand my choice at the moment is definitely Tenebrism.
Report Adelaide October 10, 2021 6:36 PM BST
I think that Cheveley Park form is suspect, and I don't fancy the winner over a mile at all... even though the time was quicker than the Middle Park, they raced up the rail with advantage.. over the fillies drawn wider.. no way should Flotus have finished in front of Sandrine like that.. 

O'Brien's mile filly seems to be History, as it was entered in the Marcel Boussac and only withdrawn late on.. forget the reason.. beaten by Limiti di Greccio last time..

I'm amazed at the Irish Stewards, what race were they looking at..?

302B Staffordstown Stud Stakes
The Stewards reviewed an incident in the closing stages of this race involving Lullaby, ridden by J.A. Heffernan and She's Trouble, ridden by K.J. Manning, where it appeared that both horses checked. Having viewed a recording of the incident, the Stewards were satisfied that no further action was warranted.


..the minor incident with She's Trouble came further back as she was weakening out of it and got squeezed out by other horses.. she finished last..  Lullaby was not involved... although they raced upsides earlier I can't see they had any contact at all.

..the incident with Lullaby came just over 1f out when the winner crossed in front of her... yet nothing was said..

..race here on youtube RacingTv if anyone wants to see it..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bja3b0cSC6c
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