Horse Antepost

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02 Apr 21 07:26
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 22,383 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
a fair way out but the flat season is on us and looking for a bit of possible value at this early stage . tarnawa will have an autumn campaign and likely she will be fresher than most . she is top class and quite possible she is still improving she sets the standard for me ,love is ground dependent so risky as to if she will turn up , i think the 33/1 high definition has some mileage ,fav for the derby and unbeaten at 2 he showed a smart turn of foot to win both starts coming from last to first to win comfortably both times in the end looking as though middle distances will suit . obviously has to improve but has the pedigree connections and could be very smart . 33/1 each way looks very fair imo. tarnawa at 9/1 as a saver also appeals opinions encouraged good luck.
selection arc de triompe .HIGH DEFINITION 33/1 each way and TARNAWA 9/1 .
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Report Angela Rebecchi October 3, 2021 1:47 PM BST
Can we bet into the PMU on here or anywhere else online?
Report kincsem October 3, 2021 1:58 PM BST
harry callaghan
I can only gleam from you penzance and kinscem that my analysis doesn’t agree with your opinions on the race.
So let’s not beat around the bush , what have you both backed, I like it honest me

If you read back a few posts you can see that I transferred Euro 200 from KBC Bank online to Betfair yesterday.
It appears on my KNC Bank online statement today.  There is nothing in my Betfair account yet.
I contacted Betfair customer services.
The will not act (put the money in my account) as they have not reconciled all the attempted deposits with the money received.
They tell me they will do the reconciliation at close of business today.
No funds, therefore no bet.

Hurricane Lane is my opinion of the most likely winner.
But betting is different from picking winners.
My Euro 200 was going to go 100% on a win bet on Torquator Tasso because I think he is about a 12/1 chance.
He won the Grosser Preis von Baden (and a close 3rd to Barney Roy), a race won by Carroll House*; Pilsudski; Borgia; Marienbard*; Danedream* (twice); Novellist (Arc fav, injured, withdrawn, Treve won) [*Arc winners]
Report penzance October 3, 2021 2:14 PM BST
if you read the fred,I'm on Adayar A/P.
Report Figgis October 3, 2021 2:37 PM BST
Judging by the first two times the ground looks what I'd call soft, not heavy. It's early days but I have it pencilled in as very similar to the year Workforce won. Adayar won his maiden on soft ground, and while there's obviously a big difference in beating inferior horses on unsuitable ground than proving they act on it in a Gp1, you don't often see a horse go away to win by 9 lengths unless the ground was ok for it. He then won the Derby on ground with plenty of give and going into the KG, even though I didn't agree, some people were expressing the view the ground would be too fast for him. I reckon this ground shouldn't be a problem for him and, aside from a slow pace and/or trouble in running, I think he just needs to retain his early season ability.
Report Sandown October 3, 2021 2:54 PM BST
"Sandown" should be able to tell us  after all he thinks he knows everything.  Laugh

That sort of remark is why I don't bother much with the forum these days . Too many people like LoyalH . If he /she seriously wants to be informed then that's not the way to go about it. Schoolboyish.
Report Sandown October 3, 2021 2:54 PM BST
"Sandown" should be able to tell us  after all he thinks he knows everything.  Laugh

That sort of remark is why I don't bother much with the forum these days . Too many people like LoyalH . If he /she seriously wants to be informed then that's not the way to go about it. Schoolboyish.
Report Sandown October 3, 2021 2:54 PM BST
"Sandown" should be able to tell us  after all he thinks he knows everything.  Laugh

That sort of remark is why I don't bother much with the forum these days . Too many people like LoyalH . If he /she seriously wants to be informed then that's not the way to go about it. Schoolboyish.
Report johnnythebull October 3, 2021 2:58 PM BST
Tarnawa drifting like the Kon-Tiki
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! October 3, 2021 3:00 PM BST
Chrono been backed
as if its going to

Report johnnythebull October 3, 2021 3:04 PM BST
will it be one of the front five with the credentials or a 'rag'?..could well be the latter
Report kincsem October 3, 2021 3:13 PM BST
ExcitedOH, FOR **** SAKE CryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCryCry
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! October 3, 2021 3:14 PM BST
w played
Report kincsem October 3, 2021 3:14 PM BST
CryCryCryCryCrySadSadSadSadCryCryCryCryI wanted to have Euro 200 on the nag at 100+
Report A_T October 3, 2021 3:14 PM BST
I give up
Report Angela Rebecchi October 3, 2021 3:14 PM BST

Oct 3, 2021 -- 7:18AM, kincsem wrote:

LoyalHonchoSorry Kincsem but I'm not grasping the point of your last posy. Are you advocating interest in the German horse or ruling it out?

Report Angela Rebecchi October 3, 2021 3:15 PM BST
kincsem • October 3, 2021 1:18 PM BST

Sorry Kincsem but I'm not grasping the point of your last posy.
Are you advocating interest in the German horse or ruling it out?  Thanks.

I was going to bet Euro 200 win at 110 on Torquator Tasso.
He is very unlikely to win, but Longchamp heavy ground is very, very tiring.
My motto "when I win I want to get paid" (paid big, no even money bets for me).

140. SP. Unreal shout.
Report kincsem October 3, 2021 3:16 PM BST
I backed Solemia in 2018 Euro 182 at 75s, but **** KBC Bank and Betfair.  This would have been nice.
Report Figgis October 3, 2021 3:18 PM BST
Torquator Tasso because I think he is about a 12/1 chance

Brilliant call Kincsem, well done.
Report harry callaghan October 3, 2021 3:19 PM BST
Well played I know a few fancied him well done to you

Not sure what Murphy was doing early in that race as took the horse to the softer going but she didn’t get home and the ride on her and adayar was odd as neither are prominent racers
Report harry callaghan October 3, 2021 3:19 PM BST
Yeah well played kinscem
Report penzance October 3, 2021 3:19 PM BST
   GL  Laugh,lovely.
Report Howellsy October 3, 2021 3:20 PM BST
Kingscem, were there no other outlets for you? That is an absolute killer.
Report Angela Rebecchi October 3, 2021 3:21 PM BST

Oct 3, 2021 -- 9:13AM, kincsem wrote:


Sorry. Thought you backed it. Did you not back it? 140/1 on a perceived 12/1 shot? Hope you got on.

Report johnnythebull October 3, 2021 3:22 PM BST
had a saver @135 and 100 thank fk these 'unconsidered' rags are so egregiously overpriced on here

won cosily come the finish

thought the Hurricane was going to do me up like a kipper

would the Belgian boyo be regretting his ride?

Kincsem..failing to plan is planning to fail

feel 4 u,dude but u should've made sure ur funds were deposited in time
Report penzance October 3, 2021 3:22 PM BST
nothing wrong with the ride on Adayar,he were'nt
good enough today.
Report FOYLESWAR October 3, 2021 3:23 PM BST
i put the winner up with raahibaah on the horses forum with raahiba ,didnt have as much on as i d have liked but that will do !
Report kincsem October 3, 2021 3:26 PM BST
Thanks for the congratulations.
It would be better if I had a bet. Laugh
Report Schraderbrau October 3, 2021 3:27 PM BST
The ride on Adayar was either tactically thought out by Charlie and William because they felt he wouldn't quicken on the ground in a bunch or William has gone far too soon and got it a bit wrong.
Report A_T October 3, 2021 3:27 PM BST
the race was a crawl - big stables like Godolphin should run a pacemaker if they have horses that stay 12f well
Report Angela Rebecchi October 3, 2021 3:27 PM BST
Sorry kings. Can I ask why you didn't back it? You called it a 12/1 shot, and it was 140/1. Sorry dude. Nothing worse than missing a bet wanted. I lumped on Tanarwa.
Report kincsem October 3, 2021 3:27 PM BST
Even worse is I recorded the race so I fall into a deep depression any time I want.Laugh
Report kincsem October 3, 2021 3:31 PM BST
Angela Rebecchi
Sorry kings. Can I ask why you didn't back it? You called it a 12/1 shot, and it was 140/1. Sorry dude. Nothing worse than missing a bet wanted. I lumped on Tanarwa.

If read back a few posts you will see that yesterday I transferred Euro 200 from my KBC Bank online to Betfair.
This morning I asked Betfair why it was not in my account.
They said they want to reconcile all the attempted deposits from everyone with the actual deposits received before putting the money in my account.
They will do that reconciliation this evening, and I will have the Euro 200 in my account probably tomorrow.
Report Angela Rebecchi October 3, 2021 3:33 PM BST
kings, that is brutal. Sorry mate. Sickener. Unreal tip none the less.
Report kincsem October 3, 2021 3:34 PM BST
Moneytree and kincsem - never though I would be linked with him. Plain
Report ElT October 3, 2021 3:36 PM BST
I don´t see any logical argument for rating Torquator Tasso as a 12-1 shot pre-race, but well done. Absolutely nothing in his 2021 form suggests he was capable of this. He doesn´t even have proven soft ground form: 261 against below average group fields. All his best form was on good/good to soft. That was just pure speculation on his German breeding. Only that he´s a hold up horse that would benefit from a strong pace was really an argument for him.

But better him than Tarnawa. Tongue Out
Report LoyalHoncho October 3, 2021 3:37 PM BST
So basically, all the long-winded expert analysis and statistical speculation etc: on this thread, from Day 1, has been a load of hogwash - as I ever suspected.  Apart from one piece of inspired speculation by kincsem.  And that is no denigration of individuals who have posted their fancies and stuck with them, based on racecourse performances!
And as for Sandown bleating about childishness - what is this post if it doesn't fit his own bill?!

Sandown    02 Oct 21 09:28
Still to finalise my final plans but in re-calibrating because of the likely very soft even  heavy ground tomorrow I realise that there is a case to be made for ....?

Which horse has close-up 10f form behind St Marks Basilica, the top-rated turf horse this year?

And has winning form at Longchamp  on heavy ground?

And has been trained with the Arc its as its target all year?

And has a pedigree which indicates that it will be better when it steps up to 12f for the first time?

Tarnawa, right.

Report Adelaide October 3, 2021 3:41 PM BST
I won £340.00
Report LoyalHoncho October 3, 2021 3:44 PM BST
Well done.  Wish I had.  Mind you if you don;t have a bet you can't!!!  Laugh
Report kincsem October 3, 2021 3:44 PM BST
Longchamp is clay soil:  very fast when dry; very slow when wet.
Form at other tracks can be useless at Longchamp.
If it is heavy, forget summer form.
What a day.  I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Report .Marksman. October 3, 2021 3:47 PM BST
What is wrong with you Honcho, everyone is entitled to opinions:
On page one I said that I would be laying Love at any single figure price as her form hadn't worked out.
I explained why I was laying Hurricane Lane based not just on stats for Leger winners, but on his appearance after winning the Irish Derby and St Leger with links to a video.
and last night I posted this:
On heavy going it's anyone's guess.  German  horses are used to it and run on desperate ground all the time.  German breds especially like it.  Torquator Tasso is by Adlerflug who won the German Derby on heavy.  His dam, Tijuana is descended from Acatenango who was 3 times champion German horse and also German Derby winner.
If enough of the fancied horses can't perform on the going (or are withdrawn) there could be room for Torquator Tasso to run into a place.
Report kincsem October 3, 2021 3:47 PM BST
Apart from one piece of inspired speculation by kincsem.

I backed Solemia in 2012 (see 2012 Arc thread) - heavy
I wanted to back Torquator Tasso in 2021 - heavy
Report kincsem October 3, 2021 4:04 PM BST
I got a text message from KBC debit card people.  Please phone them.
They want to discuss a payment of Euro 200 I tried to make yesterday to Betfair.
I phoned them.  They wanted to know my date of birth, mother's maiden name, the amount of the payment and the payee.
Too late KBC bank.

Unless I am buying groceries in Tesco or fuel at the service station they block every debit card payment.
Last week they would not pay GBP 68 to the BHA for annual renewal of my racing colours.
I paid GBP 3,000 to the BHA for the special jockey colours, and if I did not pay the annual charge I would lose the colours.
I drove from Tipperary to KBC Bank, StillorgaN, Dublin and back, 309 kilometers, to pay GBP 68.
Report LoyalHoncho October 3, 2021 4:06 PM BST
Who can blame you?.  It is getting ridiculous the hoops we have to jump through to go about our legitimate business.  Sad
Report Figgis October 3, 2021 4:09 PM BST
Hopefully some damage limitation from Suesa in the Abbaye. I see her as the clear pick and am hoping for a return to form on this ground after the slow start run at York. If she's done for the season I wouldn't be surprised whatever won.
Report Figgis October 3, 2021 4:29 PM BST
Dismal, a poor day Sad
Report Figgis October 3, 2021 5:29 PM BST
And just to cap it all, backed Space Blues at York last time and vowed to stick with him for the Foret. Decided, however, to sit the race out after earlier results Cry
Report Sandown October 3, 2021 6:04 PM BST
Wrong. The horse is Sealiway available at 48.0 on BF. Yes it has to improve 10 lbs but that isn't impossible. I've had EW money on it so I pass it on. Not expecting it to win but I've added it to my investments.

Finished 5th at 50/1 paid 5 places, so no LoyalHoncho, it made a profit. Pity you didn't show the whole post.
Report Figgis October 3, 2021 7:20 PM BST
The aim today was to find the winner or somehow turn a profit (I failed miserably), so in regards to that it matters not whether today's race was a very good one or not. I didn't back Danedream when she won, but had no doubts afterwards that she'd put up a quality  performance. Just wondering how most people view it as a piece of form going forward? Has Torquator Tasso turned into a real star since beaten by Alpinista? Was beating Passion And Glory over 4 lengths much better than it looked at the time? Was today's moderate final time entirely due to the slow early pace and would the winner be capable of clocking something really good? No surprise that I'm doubtful that this was a performance to be rated up with the better Arcs.
Report impossible123 October 3, 2021 8:18 PM BST
Just put 'LoyalHocho' on ignore. It's good for your health and the forum. The poster is an imbecile and timewaster!
Report A_T October 3, 2021 8:26 PM BST
For me the form means little - the race was too slow - perhaps in relative terms even slower than last year. Faster ground and a truly run race you'd get a completely different result - but that's how the Arc is.

I still believe Adayar is the best horse in that field - I posted here a few days ago he'd have to make his own running which is a big ask for a horse that races keenly. In the King George Broome did Adayar a favour by giving him a lead but no such luck today. Buick probably dropped the pace too much midway through the race and it turned into a sprint in the soft - Adayar wasn't stopping but the others found more speed in the conditions.

Incidentally i don't think I've seen a jockey who I'd trust to judge the pace correctly since Steve Cauthen.
Report FOYLESWAR October 3, 2021 8:30 PM BST
the pundits were saying its a very good  renewal pre race, arguably  the strongest the last 10 years ,we had a derby /king george winner, irish derby st leger winner  dual oaks winner ,multi group winner in tarnawa with some very good horses behind most with top class middle distance form that ties in with the best  ,if one of the better fancied runners won it would it have been considered a better race ? whenever we have an unfancied winner the form is crabbed but hard to  say any of the 3 in the places didnt run their race .
Report Figgis October 3, 2021 8:44 PM BST
I still believe Adayar is the best horse in that field

Me too, but can sound like sour grapes having backed him. There's no moral victory in saying you backed the best horse but it was well beaten. If he'd shown that kind of form before the KG I wouldn't have touched him with a bargepole at Ascot and don't see how anyone could say he ran the same race, but that's the known risk when a horse hasn't shown any very recent form on a racecourse. It wasn't ideal to be in front so early, but, for me, the way things panned out he had every chance and wasn't winning however the race had been run. Even though he obviously ran the better of the two Godolphin runners I actually don't believe Hurricane Lane was quite at his best either, I think the Leger took the edge off him. It will be interesting to see which will make the best 4yo. If they both improve in line with wfa or maybe one was simply more precocious than the other as a 3yo.

Hard luck for Tarnawa backers and she went closer than I thought her early price entitled her to, which just shows how an ideal preparation can be more important than weights and measures. I never would've backed the winner but, in all honesty, with Adayar not good enough on the day I can't say any result would've really shocked me.
Report penzance October 3, 2021 9:48 PM BST
Report Figgis October 3, 2021 10:01 PM BST
I've gone e.w. on the German outsider, they are often unconsidered yet go well on heavy.. and he actually has some good form.. quite a few just aren't going to show their best in these conditions..

Adelaide, apologies for forgetting this post. A perfect summary. Very well done on your win Wink
Report Adelaide October 3, 2021 10:09 PM BST
Thank you !... I don't bet much, it's the biggest win I've ever had...  I did normal e.w. and also first 6...
Report Figgis October 3, 2021 10:12 PM BST
Even sweeter then, nice one.
Report gpz6316 October 3, 2021 10:38 PM BST
I think the race makes sense , snowfall gradual price slip not firing as hoped .Adayar drifting and flipflopped by hurricane lane whom most would think had done enough this season , Tarnawas connections concerned regarding stamina in the conditions , you could say theirs niggles towards all of them in hindsight and opens it up for a horse to run a best ever . the running of alpinista will be a tell regarding the performance , which is unusual at this stage .
Report brain dead jockeys October 3, 2021 10:59 PM BST
every now and then something strange happens in a big was one of those. nothing in the form book to suggest this horse would beat tarnawa, hurricane lane and adayar.........just like when arabian queen beat golden horn in the juddemont.
Report Adelaide October 3, 2021 11:02 PM BST
I don't know if anyone is interested in this in case you haven't seen it, but there's an interesting video of the race put up by At the races, on Youtube, from the jockeycam on Cristophe Soumillon, on Tarnawa... it's quite revealing to see how the race unfolded.. you can see how Hurrican Lane was pushed along upsides, and how Tarnawa shot to the rail at the cut away and went past Adayar like it was standing still..

I don't think he had time to see the winner..
Report penzance October 3, 2021 11:17 PM BST
watched it,quite good.
Report .Marksman. October 3, 2021 11:30 PM BST
Thanks Adelaide,
I don't normally find jockey cams interesting but this one was.  You can here Soumillion shouting at Doyle when he got squeezed up on the main turn.  It looked to me that Tarnawa sprinted forward when a gap appeared (at the cutaway) just to get out of an unpleasant situation.  She wouldn't have seen the winner until it was too late, but I don't think she could have gone any faster.  If she had been able to make her forward move earlier, perhaps she may have won.  Its hard to tell.
Report LoyalHoncho October 4, 2021 1:28 AM BST
Didn't need to show the whole post - the embedded sarcasm and haughty, superior attitude was the point.  All you had to say was there is another horse who also fits that description.  You're always the same - think you know it all and are the only one with a valid viewpoint.
Report elisjohn October 4, 2021 8:36 AM BST
i studied the form of the arc yesterday morning, and if i had to put my house on the winner, i think it would have been an ew on hurricane lane , anyway i had a good look and thought there was 2 horses that could well produce a shock, the winner and also the 5th seailway,  i put £ 25 on the latterCry
Report Adelaide October 4, 2021 8:44 AM BST
Marksman... yeah I don't like cams usually but this was worth it... I couldn't understand the shouting, I didn't know what was going on there..  As Deep Bond didn't make the running, it seemed like they used Adayar as the pacemaker for HL, knowing it couldn't win on the ground..?.   Soumillon seemed to have them all covered and always going the best..
It was also enlightening to see all the turns at Longchamp..

One other thing, surely Snowfall has been totally overrated...?..
Report LoyalHoncho October 4, 2021 6:06 PM BST
I thought the jock. of Hurricane Lane ran an injudicious race.  He did a "Oisin Murphy/Kameko".  His horse came out of the stalls in A1 position and for some unknown reason he hauled it back into the pack where it suffered little bits of scrimmaging throughout.  We know the horse stays well and I can't for the life of me work out why he didn't take advantage of his extraordinary good luck and keep the horse up there in the first 3 or four.  It could well have cost him the race.
Report sixtwosix October 4, 2021 6:26 PM BST
Unless he could not get through it seems the incorrect choice for Adayar to lead.

Hurricane Led followed the pacemaker and attacked a long way out in the Paris , I was really surprised they did not perform similar tactics.
Report impossible123 October 4, 2021 7:12 PM BST
It was a brainless ride by Buick given ground condition. Absolutely bonkers!
Report gibo1981 October 5, 2021 7:14 AM BST
Quite surprised by the comments from some especially EIT… TT had G1 form on Heavy last October and was only nabbed on the line after going for home too soon. He was always going to better with cut in the ground judged on his page, and the form was there with last years second and two G1 winners from his runs in Germany this year. He also was one of only three to tick the strict trend patterns (course form letting him down only):

Aged 3 or 4 - 11 of the last twelve winners
11 of the last 12 winners had won a G1 previously
6 of the last 12 winners had a previous course win
10 of the last 12 winners had at least 7 previous career runs
11 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous starts that season
12/12 winners had won over 12f previously

Strict use of the above leaves:

Hurricane Lane
Snowfall (no course win but has run 2nd)
Torquator Tasso (no course run)

I tipped the 1st, 3rd and 5th on Twitter pre race so I’m not after timing. Just surprised more so
Report LoyalHoncho October 5, 2021 9:35 AM BST
You are after-timing as you feel the need to tell us all on here.  And those of us who don;t give twitter as much as a passing glance will have to take your word for it.
Report Sandown October 5, 2021 10:35 AM BST
Some post race reflections

1. The heavy going once again played a significant role and interfered with calculations based on form on non-heavy ground. Lesson: filter through going first when heavy. Lesson. Don't ignore German horses when going gets heavy.

2. Betting against 5 yr olds record upheld again but only just with Tarnawa demonstrating what a great trainer Weld is.

3. Leger winners poor record in Arc upheld again (but as with Tarnawa and 5yr records), only just, showing that stats based approaches may be ok for background but not neccesarily for individual races.

4. On personal performance, laying Tarnawa at 4.0 as being wrong favourite and backing back at 8..0 helped for a good book but a close run thing that. Backing those I considered value gave me the winner plus 3rd,4th,5th, 6th as winners if they has won but Tarnawa would have still have been a loser so I dodged a bullet there.

5. Backing big priced value each way gave me great place value on Sealiway  at 50.1 and Entsscheiden at 210.0 (paid 35.0 for a place). Lesson. back at big prices even if not considered to be big chances to win.
6. The draw was key in the 5f Abbaye which I ignored so took a heavy loss there.

7.. Never thought Space Blues would go on the ground  so laid it but got lucky with the Japanese horse (see above) so damage limited.

8. Small profit on the day for a lot of effort but  that's racing. Here's to the 2022 Arc . Enjoyed the thread and thanks to all especially to kincem, marksman, figgis,penzance and others for their positive contributions which as ever makes for a good learning experience. 40 years plus of betting on the race and  still there is much to learn. Great craiq. Lesson: You can never know enough.
Report roadrunner46 October 5, 2021 5:34 PM BST
missed all the weekend action, WD to winners, the draw is usually key to getting a good result in the sprints, dont always know if you have got that right, the winner of the abbaye, definitely one for pedigree aficionados, A CASE OF YOU by hot streak who relished cut in the ground and had a victory over meccas angel, interesting part of the pedigree  was the damsire key of luck, whos dams produced society rock and slade power, with recent 2nd in the group 1 flying five, and took the scalp of multiple group 1 winner glass slippers in that race, entitled to enter calculations on that run. its always easier when you have hindsight to guide your reflections
Report LoyalHoncho October 5, 2021 7:53 PM BST
here we go again - Sandown giving us all lessons.  Laugh
You have to laugh at the haughtiness of the fellow.
Report .Marksman. October 5, 2021 10:55 PM BST
I have updated my results database with last weekends races.  The results run from 1st Jan 1999 to 3rd Oct 2021 inclusive.  I think I've got the hang of posting these tables now and I hope that I have now ironed out all the discrepencies (mainly due to races being run at unusual venues).  These are for all horses that ran in the UK Group 1s and then reappeared in another Group 1 within 28 days of that run.  Hurricane Lane was the first St Leger winner to make the frame in the Arc during this time period and became the 3rd horse to go on from the Leger to place in a Group 1 (within 28 days since 1999).  The St Leger is the only G1 race which did not produce a subsequent G1 winner from samples of 10 or more runners.  And if the Ascot Gold Cup is ignored, due to only one qualifier (Westerner), The Leger has the lowest percentage of subsequent placed horses (14.29%).

    Race        Runs        Wins        Percentage        2nd        3rd        Percentage   
    2000 GUINEAS        80        14        (17.5%)        13        13        (50.0%)   
    1000 GUINEAS        93        14        (15.05%)        14        7        (37.63%)   
    LOCKINGE        8        1        (12.5%)        2        2        (62.5%)   
    CORONATION CUP        43        5        (11.63%)        10        6        (48.84%)   
    OAKS        25        5        (20.0%)        2        4        (44.0%)   
    DERBY        67        14        (20.9%)        11        8        (49.25%)   
    KING'S STAND        21        3        (14.29%)        3        1        (33.33%)   
    ST JAMES' PALACE        40        8        (20.0%)        7        3        (45.0%)   
    QUEEN ANNE        29        5        (17.24%)        4        3        (41.38%)   
    PRINCE OF WALES        48        8        (16.67%)        6        8        (45.83%)   
    ASCOT GOLD CUP        1        0        (0.0%)        0        0        (0.0%)   
    CORONATION STAKES        48        7        (14.58%)        8        3        (37.5%)   
    SILVER/GOLDEN/DIAMOND JUBILEE        119        6        (5.04%)        12        11        (24.37%)   
    ECLIPSE        22        4        (18.18%)        5        2        (50.0%)   
    FALMOUTH        41        7        (17.07%)        5        10        (53.66%)   
    JULY CUP        27        3        (11.11%)        6        3        (44.44%)   
    KING GEORGE VI & QUEEN ELIZABETH        22        5        (22.73%)        7        2        (63.64%)   
    SUSSEX STAKES        41        6        (14.63%)        3        5        (34.15%)   
    NASSAU STAKES        48        7        (14.58%)        5        6        (37.5%)   
    INTERNATIONAL        38        11        (28.95%)        7        5        (60.53%)   
    YORKSHIRE OAKS        35        6        (17.14%)        8        4        (51.43%)   
    NUNTHORPE        79        8        (10.13%)        6        5        (24.05%)   
    SPRINT CUP        10        1        (10.0%)        1        2        (40.0%)   
    ST LEGER        21        0        (0.0%)        0        3        (14.29%)   
    MIDDLE PARK        20        2        (10.0%)        3        2        (35.0%)   
    CHEVELEY PARK        2        0        (0.0%)        0        1        (50.0%)   
    SUN CHARIOT        27        3        (11.11%)        4        1        (29.63%)   
    DEWHURST        25        7        (28.0%)        2        1        (40.0%)   
    FILLIES' MILE        5        0        (0.0%)        1        1        (40.0%)   
    CHAMPIONS SPRINT        2        0        (0.0%)        0        1        (50.0%)   
    CHAMPIONS FILLIES & MARES        11        2        (18.18%)        2        0        (36.36%)   
    QUEEN ELIZABETH II        29        1        (3.45%)        4        0        (17.24%)   
    CHAMPION STAKES        21        2        (9.52%)        4        3        (42.86%)   
    FUTURITY TROPHY        6        1        (16.67%)        1        0        (33.33%)   

and yes, I do enjoy posting these tables, now that I have been shown how to do it!
Report .Marksman. October 5, 2021 11:00 PM BST
The right hand column is the percentage that placed in the first 3.
Report LoyalHoncho October 6, 2021 12:43 AM BST
I wonder if this goes to show how much  the St Leger takes out of a classic winning horse or whether in fact most St Leger winners retire after the race?  Maybe a bit of both.  Very interesting Marksman - thank you.
Report gibo1981 October 6, 2021 7:43 AM BST
Twitter is full of idiots no doubt, but I stopped posting here because you get the types of reply such as yours Honcho so the out reading the detail and point of my comment.
Report Sandown October 6, 2021 9:11 AM BST
Agree gibo1981. There have been a few like him (assume he). All are unable to play the ball, so they attack the player. It's sad because it has led to the decline in informative and enjoyable threads. After 20 years on BF, I restrict myself now to just the Arc & Derby threads because of it. Blocking helps though.
Report Sandown October 6, 2021 10:00 AM BST

A useful analysis. Thank you. One thought on looking at it, is that the combined record for ALL the sprint races is 17 wins from 280 runs (6.1%) which  looks significant given that overall figure for all horses/all races is 10% . All those races giving 20% plus likely be significant too.

My only thought at this stage is that the competitiveness of the subsequent races could be a partial factor (eg SL to Arc) as well as the demanding nature of the race won. Off the top of my head I reckon that Arc winners that follow on may have a below average win record. I do remember sometime ago seeing the poor subsequent record of Grand National winners ,  a demanding race which takes a long time to recover from.

Back to the sprinters, and their below expected subsequent win record, I wonder whether the part played by luck in-running is a factor? Put another way, the difference in ability between sprinters is less, there are more of them within the top ability range, and draw/going bias , all combine to influence the results. Result: Anything can win.
Report Sandown October 6, 2021 10:09 AM BST
gibo1981. I've added this guy to my blocked list and in looking at the list of such folk that I've blocked over the past 20 years, the interesting thing is that none of them have lasted the course. None are posting today. Curious! Done their money, maybe?Grin
Report .Marksman. October 6, 2021 1:44 PM BST
I find the sprints really difficult.  Horses seem to go from class 2 handicaps to winning Group 1s in a short space of time.  Also the big fields could be a factor in low win and place percentages.  I will do further research, but I might start another thread dedicated to statistics for the type of races that we have antepost markets for.
Report .Marksman. October 6, 2021 1:54 PM BST
LoyalHoncho, I think horses are trained to run the race of their life in the St Leger, as it is the last opportunity to win a classic.  It isn't generally used as a trial for anything.  Winning trainers often say they will see how the horse comes out of it before committing to a future race.   If all Leger winners looked as exhausted as Hurricane Lane did, that is a good explanation as to why no horse has won the St Leger and Arc in the same year.
Report kincsem October 7, 2021 12:58 PM BST
Besides not getting a Euro 200 bet on the Arc on Sunday by KBC debit card (they block all gambling), or by KBC Bank online transfer made on Saturday 3rd October the Euro 200 I transferred by online bank is not on my Betfair account, today Thursday 7th at 13:00.
Report kincsem October 7, 2021 1:02 PM BST
Betfair "The payments team have told me that you will have to contact the bank and ask them to claim the money back.
Me: "Why?"
Report kincsem October 7, 2021 1:06 PM BST
Betfair: "Unfortunately that is how it has to be done, as it left the bank account but did not enter your betfair account."
Me: Why did it not enter my Betfair account?  I sent it using your menu driven Deposit page, Alternative Methods, Bank Transfer, select country Ireland - EUR - Barclays Bank PLC
Report kincsem October 7, 2021 1:09 PM BST
Betfair: " understand, but it never got to your account, so if you could please phone up your bank and ask them to reclaim the money, that would solve your issue."
Me: Is my money in the Betfair bank?
Report kincsem October 7, 2021 1:19 PM BST
Betfair: ..."No, it has not gone through, that is why we asked you contact your bank to reclaim it."
Me: ........ Then is there an error in the operation of you bank transfer page for payment of Euro by Irish customers to Barclays Bank, Hatch Street, Dublin?  If that page is not working you should remove the page, or fix it.
Betfair: .... "I can assure you that that page is working just fine. Can you please have a talk with your bank account please as they could reclaim the money?"
Me: .........Thank you for the assurance that the page is working "just fine".  It did not work for me, so you will understand if I doubt your claim.
Betfair: .... "I'm sorry Sean but I have contacted the payments team and they have asked me to tell you that you would need to contact your bank to reclaim it."
Me:.......... I will do that, as that is the only option for me.  I am sure you mean the "deposits team".
Report kincsem October 7, 2021 1:51 PM BST
I contacted my bank.  They say it will try to reclaim the transfer to Betfair's bank (Barclays) but could take up to 30 days.
Report Howellsy October 7, 2021 7:38 PM BST
Report LoyalHoncho October 9, 2021 1:50 AM BST
I've never blocked, nor felt the need to block, anybody on here, ever.  Only the saddest of people feel they have to do it.  It's like burning books in a village square.  Laugh
What is the point of contributing to a forum if you don;t want answers and other opinion?  Laugh
Do you realise just how stupid you sound Sandown?
Not if he's blocked this he won't.  Will he?!
Report .Marksman. October 9, 2021 6:11 PM BST
Sandown you had a hunch that Arc winners turning out soon would have a poor win record.  The following table shows horses reappearing within 28 days of running in a French Group 1 on the flat, in another G1.
    Race        Runs        Wins        % Wins        2nd        3rd        % Places   
    Prix Ganay        43        11        (25.58%)        11        5        (62.79%)   
    Poule d'Essai des Pouliches        50        7        (14.0%)        4        8        (38.0%)   
    Poule d'Essai des Poulains        72        9        (12.5%)        10.5        8        (38.19%)   
    Prix Saint-Alary        73        4        (5.48%)        4        8        (21.92%)   
    Prix d'Ispahan        29        6        (20.69%)        1        2        (31.03%)   
    Prix du Jockey Club        40        7        (17.5%)        4        4        (37.5%)   
    Prix de Diane        16        1        (6.25%)        3        2        (37.5%)   
    Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud        23        4        (17.39%)        3        4        (47.83%)   
    Grand Prix de Paris        3        0        (0.0%)        2        0        (66.67%)   
    Prix Jean Prat        25        3        (12.0%)        4        6        (52.0%)   
    Prix Rothschild        25        2        (8.0%)        7        4        (52.0%)   
    Prix Maurice de Gheest        63        6        (9.52%)        7        4        (26.98%)   
    Prix Jacques Le Marois        60        8        (13.33%)        12        10        (50.0%)   
    Prix Morny        9        1        (11.11%)        0        4        (55.56%)   
    Prix Jean Romanet        9        1        (11.11%)        1        1        (33.33%)   
    Prix du Moulin de Longchamp        45        3        (6.67%)        6        6        (33.33%)   
    Prix Vermeille        82        11        (13.41%)        11        5        (32.93%)   
    Prix de Royallieu        7        1        (14.29%)        1        1        (42.86%)   
    Prix du Cadran        66        8        (12.12%)        8        8        (36.36%)   
    Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp        9        0        (0.0%)        1        0        (11.11%)   
    Prix Marcel Boussac        8        1        (12.5%)        0        2        (37.5%)   
    Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère        35        5        (14.29%)        5        6        (45.71%)   
    Prix de la Forêt        24        2        (8.33%)        2        5        (37.5%)   
    Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe        64        12.5        (19.53%)        16        9        (58.59%)   
    Prix de l'Opéra        42        2        (4.76%)        7        3        (28.57%)   
    Prix Royal-Oak        0        0        (-)        0        0        (-)   
    Critérium International        2        0        (0.0%)        0        0        (0.0%)   
    Critérium de Saint-Cloud        0        0        (-)        0        0        (-)   

The Arc runners did quite well, which surprised me.
Report .Marksman. October 9, 2021 6:19 PM BST
... and the Irish Group 1s:

    Race        Runs        Wins        Percentage        2nd        3rd        Percentage   
    IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS        83        14        (16.87%)        6        5        (30.12%)   
    TATTERSALLS GOLD CUP        50        7        (14.0%)        14        5        (52.0%)   
    IRISH 1,000 GUINEAS        106        12        (11.32%)        13        7        (30.19%)   
    PRETTY POLLY        25        4        (16.0%)        5        3        (48.0%)   
    IRISH DERBY        38        4        (10.53%)        7        3        (36.84%)   
    IRISH OAKS        21        5        (23.81%)        1        5        (52.38%)   
    PHOENIX STAKES        19        5        (26.32%)        3        2        (52.63%)   
    MATRON STAKES        58        6        (10.34%)        6        4        (27.59%)   
    IRISH CHAMPION STAKES        50        5        (10.0%)        7        6        (36.0%)   
    MOYGLARE STUD        47        11        (23.4%)        6        6        (48.94%)   
    NATIONAL STAKES        41        8        (19.51%)        8        7        (56.1%)   
    IRISH ST LEGER        20        2        (10.0%)        2        4        (40.0%)   
    FLYING FIVE        17        1        (5.88%)        2        2        (29.41%)   
Report Sandown October 11, 2021 10:19 AM BST

Thanks again for the stats. It surprised me to see the Arc results as I expected a below average performance. The Abbaye fits with the UK sprint figures but the Alary and l'Opera figures both over 10f are below average but not sure why. And why is the Ganay stat so good?

The Irish figures again confirm the sprint below average  (Fling Five) which is the most likely significant finding in all 3 countries and the only conclusion that I might most confidently draw, given the low sample sizes.
Report kincsem October 13, 2021 12:39 PM BST
The Euro 200 I transferred from KBC Bank on Saturday 3rd October (actioned 04/10/21) never appeared on my Betfair account.
I used the IBAN listed on the Betfair Deposits/Alternative Methods/Bank Transfer page.
Betfair customer support webchat said they would not send the money back. I should ask my bank to recall the money.
I asked KBC Bank customer services to recall the money.  KBC said Betfair should send it back.
KBC said a recall could take up to a month, and they agreed to try as Betfair would not.

The Euro 200 left my KBC bank account.
The Euro 200 is not in my Betfair account.
The Euro 200 is not back in my KBC Bank account.
Report impossible123 October 13, 2021 9:36 PM BST
It seems the money has been lost in transit, and Betfair are not admitting it reach them despite your bank indicated it had left their account and headed for Betfair. The $64k question is who's telling the truth, and who's telling porkies?

Bank or bookie? Who'd you trust?
Report LoyalHoncho October 14, 2021 4:49 PM BST
You have my sympathy kincsem.  Something stinks and you are getting precious little assistance.  A dreadful way to treat a good, loyal customer.
Report kincsem October 15, 2021 4:07 PM BST
My KBC Bank branch that sent the money and Barclays Bank where they money was sent are both in Dublin only 1.6 kms apart (1.0 miles).
Report impossible123 October 15, 2021 6:44 PM BST
If you're a friend of the manager of either bank your predicament will be no more I can guarantee. Unbelievable this's still not sorted given the time.
Report kincsem October 18, 2021 3:10 PM BST
I checked my KBC Bank online account today.
The Euro 200 not returned to my KBC Bank account.
Neither is the Euro 200 in my Betfair account.
The Euro 200 is missing two weeks+.
Report .Marksman. October 18, 2021 4:07 PM BST
It can't just disappear:  Someone's got your money.  If you have internet banking, check your account and find out who the recipient was.  Otherwise, ring up KBC Bank and ask them who the recipient was.  Ask for all the available details of the transaction.  If they don't want to give out this information by phone, ask for it to be sent by post.  When you get these details, compare them with Betfair's (details given in the bank tranfer section of depositing funds).  If they match exactly, Betfair will have the money.  If they don't match exactly, someone else will now have it.
Report .Marksman. October 18, 2021 4:09 PM BST
I see that you have checked your online account.  Sorry, I should have noticed that.
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