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20 Mar 21 18:06
Date Joined: 14 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 2,822 | Blogger: nocturnal's blog
3PT max stake per horse

5pt max stake In all English / Irish / French classics

Class 1-3 Only

£9.5 k  minimum in all Irish/French  races

No Multiples

No Exchange Odds

Betfair SP Is Allowed

Post Bookmaker and Odds at time of posting

All Welcome

Best of luck for the season
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Report nocturnal May 29, 2021 11:38 AM BST
It,s a game of intrigue and deceipt ..... FOMO .... got me there Plat,aint got a scooby what that means Shocked

Two types of drifters In my humble opinion.

The likeable 60,s band,always in with a chance,will always have their supporters.

The type that go from 20>40 on here just before the off,happens daily,zero chance.
Report Platini May 29, 2021 11:57 AM BST

Report cracked house May 29, 2021 12:25 PM BST
Yes Plat i hate jumping early and then big drift :( i usually press up to.

Noc, yer just think trip n grnd should suit just the track n draw, i only give them 3 - 4 chances then bin em.
Report nocturnal May 29, 2021 1:14 PM BST
1-15 haydock

Labbeebb 0.5pt

Midrarr 0.5pt
Report nocturnal May 29, 2021 1:44 PM BST
1-45 haydock

Bernado Oreilly 1pt
Report nocturnal May 29, 2021 2:42 PM BST
2-40 chester

Another Batt 0.5pt

Alexander James 0.5pt
Report cracked house May 29, 2021 2:54 PM BST
Hayd 3.30 Brad The Brief 1 pt ew 4 pls 16/1 skybet
Report nocturnal May 29, 2021 3:30 PM BST
3-30 hayd

Njord 0.33pt

Kinross 0.33pt

Queen Jo Jo 0.33pt

WP with TM cracked Cool
Report nocturnal May 29, 2021 3:51 PM BST
3-50 chester

Hasanabad 0.5pt

Nakeeta 0.5pt
Report cracked house May 29, 2021 3:54 PM BST
Cheers Noc, would've been gutted if it won sp 25/1 :(

That Waarif is a dog i think or deffo being plotted


P/L +14.5pts
Report cracked house May 31, 2021 7:10 AM BST
Morning all,

Chelms 4.15 Lethal Talent 0.5 pt ew 14/1 0.5pt ew SP 4pls skybet
Report cracked house May 31, 2021 4:55 PM BST
OUT 2pts in 0pts

P/L + 12.5pts
Report cracked house June 2, 2021 4:40 PM BST
OAKS Friday 4.30

Saffron Beach 1pt ew 5pls 10/1 skybet
Report Facts June 3, 2021 12:35 PM BST
B/F - 10.2 pts


2.35 Epsom. Hortzadar. 1 pt win 14/1 b 3 6 5
Report Facts June 3, 2021 5:54 PM BST
5.40 Epsom  Lord Rapscallion. 1 pt win 7/1 b 3 6 5

(All b 3 6 5 bets are BOG)
Report nocturnal June 3, 2021 11:08 PM BST


Lawn Ranger 0.33pt

Waters Edge 0.33pt

Youre Hired 0.33pt


Divinely 0.33pt

Willow 0.33pt

La Joconde 0.33pt
Report cracked house June 4, 2021 10:06 AM BST

2.35 Mouraad  1pt ew 13/1 boosted 4 pls W/H
Report Millerracing67 June 4, 2021 1:50 PM BST
4.30 Epsom: 0.25 ew Divinely (BF sp) 4pls.
Report Millerracing67 June 4, 2021 2:17 PM BST
4.30 Epsom: 0.25ew Dubai Fountain (BF sp) 4pls
Report Platini June 4, 2021 3:31 PM BST
3.45 Epsom  0.5 pt e/w - Data Protection 10/1 (Slybet, 4 places)
Report chewy11 June 4, 2021 4:24 PM BST
Oaks, Sherbert Lemon .5pt ew 18/1 4plcs var
Report chewy11 June 4, 2021 4:31 PM BST
Oh dear
Report nocturnal June 4, 2021 5:39 PM BST
Epsom 5-40

Arigato 0.5pt

On A session 0.5pt
Report Facts June 4, 2021 6:16 PM BST
B/F - 12.2 pts

3.45 Epsom Stone Of Destiny  1pt win 8/1 b3 6 5

5.50 Epsom  Danzeno 1 pt win 7/1  b3 6 5
Report nocturnal June 4, 2021 7:01 PM BST
7-00 goodwood

Minhaaj 0.5pt

Fairy Dust 0.5pt
Report nocturnal June 4, 2021 7:51 PM BST
7-23 donc

Ebury 0.5pt

Stunning Beauty 0.5pt
Report sintonian June 5, 2021 6:36 AM BST
Derby - Bolshoi Ballet 2.5pt w 6/4, var 1pt ew One Ruler 16/1, slybet
Report cracked house June 5, 2021 7:18 AM BST
Fri 4pts out 0pts in P/L +8.5pts

3.45 BLUE DE VEGA 3.45 MONDAMMEJ 0.75pts ew both sp 7pls skybet (3pts total)

4.30 SOUTHERN LIGHTS 0.5pt ew 33/1 5pls skybet
Report Facts June 5, 2021 8:41 AM BST

.  Epsom Dash

Readers of this forum will know I flagged this horse a few races races back as one to watch.
Difficult to try and read what's required of this horse. But I've managed to avoid its losing runs of late.

Could this race be the ' one ' ?

Astute trainer
Good jockey
Ground ok
Draw ok
Has won over 5f
Has won over the Course
Wearing both a tongue tie and blinkers together for the first time in 3 years
At 82, his official rating is now at his last winning level

At 33/1  with b 3 6 5, he has to be a 1 pt win bet.

I'd kick myself if I left it unbacked.Happy
Report lead on June 5, 2021 9:36 AM BST
If he finishes placed at even bigger odds with BOG will you not kick yourself?
Report Facts June 5, 2021 9:58 AM BST
My thoughts on ew betting have been explained on here in the past.Cool
Report lead on June 5, 2021 10:30 AM BST
I know...I've read them...would struggle to cope with getting a few good priced places myself if just backing strictly win..but I suppose it all comes down to temperament and discipline.Just for interest,do you NEVER have a bet in the classics or Group 1's?
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 10:35 AM BST

lab/mid -1
b oreilly -1
ab/aj -1
njord/qjj -0.66
kinross + 1.69  (6.09)
has/nakeeta -1
lawn ranger/youre hired NR
wat edge -0.33
div/willow/lj -1
arig/oas -1
min/f dust -1
ebury -0.5
stun beaty +4.36   (9.73)

-11.37 / 0 IP

Morning All

Have looked at him Facts,can also make a case for several others in that race.Watching him back,come to the conclusion he is not an apprentice ride,interesting to see how he gets on later.

Times were quicker yesterday than it looked to me,easy side of good will not suit all of them,the obsession with watering continues in both codes,excluding many horses that want fast ground to produce their optimum.

Fair point Lead On .... I,m also with Facts,a convert you might say.Much rather back another horse than half my stake on one beast,that too might be seen as a negative to some,fair enough.

The term BOG is laughable,most of the time the odds are way under what they should be,a high % of those that place appear to have been backed once SP returned,another problem backing EW.

The last couple seasons results back up the win only strategy,can be a while between drinks.

As ever it is a continual battle this game,always interested to see other points of view.
Report lead on June 5, 2021 10:42 AM BST
It's that long wait between drinks that would get me...I'd be dying of thirst!
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 10:54 AM BST
Aye,like the Sahara for me this flat game Cry

The other discussion once was graded horses versus handicappers.That to me opens up a whole new debate,the system at present forces trainers/jockeys to mask horses ability in handicaps,another reason why plenty of decent selections are never sighted.

The graded system when looking at potential mares/stallions for breeding,certainly appeals more long term for those wanting more consistency I would have thought,prize money would also come in there somewhere.

Best of luck today everyone.
Report cracked house June 5, 2021 11:29 AM BST
Facts if your backing that win only surely on here better option @ 50s +
Report Facts June 5, 2021 11:42 AM BST
lead on

i only back in  good class hcaps, usually at Grade 1 racecourses.
I never bet in any other races
Report Facts June 5, 2021 11:47 AM BST
cracked house

i have subsequently moved some to those prices on BX.
But for simplicity will leave original bet as is for this forum.
Report Millerracing67 June 5, 2021 11:51 AM BST
4.30 Epsom: 1pt win Bolshoi Ballet (BF sp)
Report trev w June 5, 2021 1:15 PM BST
Han solo berger

Cheers g.
Report trev w June 5, 2021 1:15 PM BST
Sorry gents wrong fred
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 2:00 PM BST
2-00 Epsom

Zhang Fei 1pt
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 2:35 PM BST
2-35 epsom

Tomorrows Dream 0.5pt

Queen Kahlua 0.5pt
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 2:53 PM BST
2-50 muss

Thunder Of Niagara 0.5pt

Sir Benedict 0.5pt
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 3:09 PM BST
3-10 epsom

Duke Of Hazzard 0.5pt

Pholas 0.5pt
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 3:27 PM BST
3-25 muss

Annadale 0.33pt

Golden Dove 0.33pt

Glenn Again 0.33pt
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 3:41 PM BST
3-40 donc

Tenbury Wells 0.5pt

Basilicata 0.5pt
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 3:46 PM BST
3-45 epsom

Blue De Vega 0.5pt

Lord Riddiford 0.5pt
Report Whippin Piccadilly June 5, 2021 3:49 PM BST
Nice one Facts! Cool
Report Whippin Piccadilly June 5, 2021 3:50 PM BST
Got him down to 82....job done!
Report cracked house June 5, 2021 3:51 PM BST
oi oi Facts :)
Report Platini June 5, 2021 3:52 PM BST
Laugh brilliant stuff, Facts.

I tried to get matched at 66 on here when I read your message, but didn't get it and then the NR killed the price.
I got on at 5/1 in the 6 places market, tho.  Very well done. Cool
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 4:06 PM BST
Great work Facts .... What the forum should be about ... Enjoy that one.
Report lead on June 5, 2021 4:07 PM BST
Fantastic tipping,Facts...and Nocturnal with Thunder of Niagara
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 4:29 PM BST
Facts is now fully watered Lead On Wink


Mac Swiney 0.25pt

Southern Lights 0.25pt

Youth Spirit 0.25pt

Third Realm 0.25 pt
Report Facts June 5, 2021 4:29 PM BST
Thanks very much guys. Appreciated. It's so good when it all comes together as you thought it would.Cool
Well done too nocHappy
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 5:15 PM BST
5-15 epsom

Australis 0.5pt

The Trader 0.5pt
Report nocturnal June 5, 2021 5:50 PM BST
5-50 epsom

berama Gold 0.5pt

Muscika 0.5pt
Report cracked house June 5, 2021 7:03 PM BST
SAT OUT 4pts in 1.65pts P/L + 6.15pts
Report nocturnal June 6, 2021 1:30 PM BST

z fei -1
td/qk -1
sir ben -0.5
t o niagara +4.75  (10.5)
doh/pholas -1
anna/gd/ga -1
tw/basil -1
bdv/lord ridd -1
ms/sl/ys/t realm -1
aus/tt -1
ab gold/musc -1

-16.12 / 0 IP

One of those days where the racing gods seemingly conspire against every bet.

Enough to drive you to drink,in my case a few glasses of a bitter tasting red.

Not sticking up Mokaatil,Muscika chinned in the last,the whining goes on Whoops

Do they make us stronger,more determined,or just part of the battle ?

Delighted for Facts .... Something we could all learn from there,I have no doubt.

Notebook horses/cliff horses ..... I see other opinions as a huge positive,whether they agree or not.

Might stick a couple up as the season progresses,thats open to anyone who posts/comments/follows.

Onwards .... Thick head or not.
Report Platini June 6, 2021 1:34 PM BST
Prix  du Jockey Club (Chantilly 3.00)

Makaloun - 0.5 pt e/w at 11/1 (Hills, 5 places)
Van Gough - 0.5 pt win at 9/1 (gen)
Report sintonian June 6, 2021 2:35 PM BST
Wd facts

French derby- El Drama 1pt ew 14/1 billies, 2pt win St Marks Bas 100/30 billies
Report chewy11 June 6, 2021 2:53 PM BST

Derab 2pts win 13/2 var
Report nocturnal June 6, 2021 3:29 PM BST
3-30 goodwood

Smart Champion 0.33pt

Dancing Harry 0.33pt

Clongowes 0.33pt
Report chewy11 June 6, 2021 4:16 PM BST
4.20 Perth Tommy Rapper 1pt win 8/1 365
Report nocturnal June 6, 2021 4:50 PM BST
WP Sint

Bit early for the jumpers Chewy Wink

4-50 chantilly

Trois Mille 0.33pt

Tour TO Paris 0.33pt

Air De Valse 0.33pt
Report chewy11 June 6, 2021 7:46 PM BST
I'll have my point back then
Report sintonian June 7, 2021 12:23 PM BST
Queen Anne - Lope Y Fernandez 1pt ew 14/1, 3.65

SJP - Battleground 1pt ew 9/1 888
Report sintonian June 8, 2021 1:21 PM BST
3.20 Salisbury Anghaam 2pt win 2/1, pp/bf
Report cracked house June 9, 2021 9:01 PM BST

Report LoyalHoncho June 10, 2021 11:18 PM BST
Have just had a look at the long range field for the Gold Cup and there is simply nothing there good enough to trouble a well and in form - and he's never been anything else has he - Stradivarious.  What has happened to and in the stayers ranks?  Has stamina been taken out of the ideal breeding model?
Report Facts June 11, 2021 8:59 AM BST
B/F. + 11.8 pts

4.35 York.  Firmament  1pt win 10/1  b 3 6 5
Report cracked house June 11, 2021 5:38 PM BST

3.40 UNCLE JUMBO 24/1 (BOOSTED) 6PLS W/H 1 pt ew

Noc waarif out again :( will throw a few £s win on here #smh cliff horse
Report nocturnal June 11, 2021 9:41 PM BST
Hard to know what ability remains Cracked.

That looks a mighty tricky race,double entries from trainers are something I try to avoid,not always easy.

There is a notebook horse in there from last season,Yoshimi from Fahey yard,his seasonal bow last season behind PP looked mighty encouraging,needless to say,he never re-produced anything like that as the season progressed.

That 76 rating would be a gift if he showed a similar level at some point this season.

Wonderful horse Honcho .... but,were there signs last season he is not quite the same horse.

Arguably the one true test of stamina,in this race,he was Impressive.

The other concern would be the ground,just what are his optimum conditions ?

Highlighted on here a few seasons back just how much much the Watering can affect results,mainly on the straight track,but with the GC being run at 4-15,a warm day could see it pretty quick.

Trueshan and Subjectivist both look young stayers with potential.

One of my favourite races of the meeting,lets hope plenty stand their ground.
Report cracked house June 11, 2021 10:11 PM BST
i didnt even look at the other runners tbh but it looks a tricky race and would not bet in it otherwise, i'll give it 1 more go
probably go win a 5 runner race somewhere as fav or 2nd fav all weather class 6
Report nocturnal June 11, 2021 11:53 PM BST

We have one entered at Ascot on tuesday,5-00 pm over 2m 4f,I think we both got him badly wrong LTO.

Gone back over his record,if there is any firm in the going,he has an outstanding chance.

Thoughts ?
Report Facts June 12, 2021 7:40 AM BST
B/F. + 10.8 pts

2.50 Sandown. Repertoire  1 pt win 10/1  b 3 6 5

3.40 York          Aikido          1pt win 7/1 b 3 6 5
Report cracked house June 12, 2021 7:52 AM BST
Noc i heard a stat somewhere that the trainers form is way better when theres firm in the going then when soft as most believe, 

its run c/d well before & from a bad draw, looks like ground makes no difference, mark looks ok has run well from the front or held up, so with a lowish draw it would be a strong fancy.
Report cracked house June 12, 2021 8:13 AM BST
P/L + 6.15pts

York 3.40 UNCLE JUMBO 24/1 (BOOSTED) 6PLS W/H 1 pt ew posted yesterday, trying keep things tidy ;-)

Sand 2.15 Steel Bull 0.65pt win 7/1 bog BF/SB

York 2.35 Golden apollo 0.5pt win 11/1 bog BF/SB
Report nocturnal June 12, 2021 1:04 PM BST
Interesting stat CH .... Draw and run style is my thinking,covered some ground in last years renewal.

1-05 sandown

Tornadic 1pt
Report chewy11 June 12, 2021 1:29 PM BST

2.25 York Gifted Ruler 1pt win 11/2 var
Report nocturnal June 12, 2021 2:33 PM BST
2-35 york

Troubador 0.33pt

Golden Apollo 0.33pt

Broken Spear 0.33pt
Report nocturnal June 12, 2021 3:02 PM BST
3-05 york

Red Verdon 1pt
Report nocturnal June 12, 2021 3:21 PM BST
3-20 chester

Glen Again 1pt
Report nocturnal June 12, 2021 3:25 PM BST
3-25 sand

Toronado Grey 0.33pt

Fountain Cross 0.33pt

Dejame Paso 0.33pt
Report cracked house June 12, 2021 4:17 PM BST

OUT 3.15pts in 0pts P/L +3
Report nocturnal June 13, 2021 12:23 PM BST

sc/dh/clong -1
tm/ttp/adv -1
tornadic -1
troub/ga/bs -1
rv -1
g again -1
tg/f cross -0.66
dej paso +5.17  (16.5)

-17.61  0 IP
Report cracked house June 13, 2021 1:07 PM BST

5.00 ROCHESTER HOUSE 20/1 5pls bog 1pt ew Corals
Report sintonian June 13, 2021 2:28 PM BST
3:00 Gowran Miss Molly T 2pt 5/1 3.65. 0.5pt win Sindhia & Aquiscence 9/1 var
Report sintonian June 13, 2021 3:06 PM BST
2nd, 3rd & 4th
Report Facts June 14, 2021 1:28 AM BST
Nice hit noc Cool
Report Facts June 14, 2021 1:34 AM BST
B/F. + 8.8 pts

Royal Ascot - Tuesday

5.00. Coeur de Lion  1pt win 12/1

6.10. On To Victory   1pt win 10/1

( both b 3 6 5 & BOG)
Report nocturnal June 14, 2021 12:18 PM BST
Ta .... Treading water at the moment,sometimes it can hinge on just one result to re-kindle the flame.

Looked at last years thread yesterday,noticed your comments re sprint handicaps.

Interesting that your record is better with the bigger fields,your thoughts re pace make a deal of sense.

Got me thinking,with Mokaatil in mind,any variance in straight flatter tracks versus the more undulating ones ?I know your very thorough with the recording of bets,interested to see how you fare this week.

Just a thought with Ascot,where the pace is normally guaranteed to a point.

GL everyone playing,some excellent racing to look forward to.
Report Whippin Piccadilly June 14, 2021 2:54 PM BST
-16 0 IP

Work to do this week.

Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2)
Coeur De Lion 1pt @ 12/1(B365)
Just Hubert 1pt @ 14/1 (Boyles)

Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race)
Forest Of Dean 2pt @ 6/1 (WH)
Report Facts June 14, 2021 3:42 PM BST
Yep, definitely bigger fields over 5 - 8f suit my system methodology.
York, Newmarket, Goodwood ,Epsom ,Ascot are favoured tracks. So a mixture there of turning/ undulating and galloping tracks.

Nb. Horses with higher weights able to produce more at the finish on non galloping courses.
Report Whippin Piccadilly June 14, 2021 3:53 PM BST
Copper Horse Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2)
Throne Hall 1pt @ 10/1 (Var)
Report Whippin Piccadilly June 14, 2021 4:50 PM BST
St James's Palace Stakes (Group 1)
Chindit 0.5pt @ 9/1(Boyles)
Naamoos 0.5pt @ 25/1 (B365)

The latter is the only notebook horse I've posted on here. Won like a group animal LTO but this is a huge step up. Will be very interesting to see if he can handle it. No matter the result, he's still a horse I like a lot.

Good luck on day 1 chaps.
Report cracked house June 14, 2021 4:56 PM BST
Royal Ascot Weds 3.05 Benaurd 20/1 bog 1pt ew 4pls corals
Report Platini June 14, 2021 10:35 PM BST
P/L  +9.37

RA - St James Palace

La Barrosa - 1 pt e/w 16/1 (Slybet, 5 places)
Report nocturnal June 14, 2021 10:43 PM BST
Cracked ... Another coffin draw Cry

He,s a stayer,unless he guns him early,I do not see him winning from off the pace.

The 6 Irish entries could be anything,did cross my mind after the chester cup,is there a discrepancy in the flat handicapping over the water,I wonder who Jim Bolger might fancy.

CDL must enter calculations,I see he has the Visor back on,everything about him suggests he needs a decent break between races to produce his best,I can see him running on well at the business end.

Good to see you about WP .... also keen to see how Chindit runs on forecast ground,and away from newmarket,big concern for me would be the pilot,tactically will need to be on the ball.

Elsewhere Quinn sends two decent fillies against Battash, I do wonder if LB has strengthed up over the winter,she would not need to improve too much to give the jolly a race,also liked her comeback run.Still trying to give last years ground as good/sft,laughable when you look at the winning time,no surprise if Battash will be just as good on quicker ground.

Grand card to open proceedings.
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