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elisjohn
29 Jun 20 14:51
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Date Joined: 15 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 15,694 | Blogger: elisjohn's blog
hopefully the covid virus wont disrupt the racing calender next year, (or nothing else) but i havent seen too much so far outside    r ascot to suggest a 1000 guineas   winner, the burke filly dandalla  looked good,  but the  horse that really  impressd me  was  frenetic, ger lyons filly who was so impressive at curragh last week,  she will take the beating in all 5furlongs/ 6 furlongs races at any level this year imo, but will she get a mile ?
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Report jamesp November 6, 2020 2:25 PM GMT
It will be fascinating to see how the Gr.1 Prix Morny winner Campanelle copes with the step up to a mile at Keeneland this evening. We know that she handles firm ground, and the fast conditions will also help her to get the trip. If she wins or runs a big race, connections will surely be tempted to bring her over for the Guineas next year.

The other interesting contender is Mother Earth, who put up a career-best performance last time in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile (beaten two lengths, possibly given too much to do). That was on soft ground, and her only career win was also on soft ground, so there's a big question mark about her ability to cope with firm ground this evening. Her sire Zoffany and dam (by Green Desert) were both adaptable ground-wise, so she may be OK on it. A mile should be her trip next season. At this stage she looks like Aidan O'Brien's main contender for the mile classics.

Miss Amulet is sprint-bred and stepping up from 6f for the first time. I'd be surprised if she lasts out the mile, but you never know.

Oodnadatta (trained by Jessica Harrington) is an interesting runner: last seen when third in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, her pedigree is an interesting blend of speed and stamina. If she's done well in recent weeks and hasn't gone over the top for the season, I could see her running a big race and putting herself in the Guineas picture.

I'd be a bit surprised, based on what we've seen of her in the UK, if Roger Varian's Nazuna proves good enough.
Report jamesp November 7, 2020 12:29 PM GMT
A smart performance last night in the Gr.1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf from the unbeaten US filly Aunt Pearl, who hared round the tight bends and won unchallenged. Considerable merit, however, must go to Mother Earth who came from a long way back and stayed on strongly up the short stretch to finish second, just ahead of fellow Irish raider Miss Amulet. Mother Earth clearly acts on any ground and I don't think she necessarily needs a longer trip - the tight turning track was unsuitable, the race wasn't run to suit, and she tried to make her challenge from an impossible position. A mile is probably the right trip for her and she should be much happier returning to the straight Rowley Mile in the Guineas. She has a couple of lengths to find with my main Guineas fancy Pretty Gorgeous on the Fillies' Mile form, but she was possibly given too much to do on that occasion, and 20/1 Mother Earth looks a very fair price for the Guineas (for anyone looking for a saver or an each-way bet).

Miss Amulet ran a fine race in third, proving that she stays a mile (albeit on a tight turning track on firm ground), though I don't see any particular reason for thinking that she will reverse placings with Mother Earth over a mile next season. Campanelle, who was up with the pace, faded in the last half furlong and looks like she will be best at shorter distances. Oodnadatta was always towards the rear after a tardy start and never got into the race. Nazuna (the Rockfel Stakes runner-up) was similarly quite a long way back in the early stages and never looked like she would get competitive.
Report impossible123 November 7, 2020 6:36 PM GMT
Good analysis 'jamesp'. It looks another monopolistic 1st 2 Guineas for The O'Briens' eg Pretty Gorgeous/Thunder Moon (Joseph); Mother Earth/Santa Barbara & Battleground/Wembley (Aiden).

The others might not get a look-in.
Report jamesp November 9, 2020 5:06 PM GMT
Another filly to keep an eye on next spring is the smart and progressive Lullaby Moon (-101311), who recently won the Gr.3 Prix Miesque over 7f at Chantilly. Ralph Beckett's filly was stepping up to 7f for the first time and showed a smart turn of foot once a gap opened up on the inside rail to shoot clear in the final furlong, winning comfortably by a couple of lengths. That was on heavy ground and the winning time was very slow (even allowing for the conditions), 12.52s slower than standard(!), but it looked quite a smart performance and the form has a solid Gr.3 look to it - runner-up Asterella and fourth Coeursamba had been beaten by similar margins in the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale. Lullaby Moon had previously won the Redcar Two Year Old Trophy (Listed) over 6f from a big field, beating the 105-rated Zamaani. Three of her four wins have been on soft or heavy ground, but she's also won on good ground (quickening up to win a Goodwood novices event on debut). She's by top-class miler Belardo out of a 5f handicapper (by Indesatchel), so there's no guarantee that she will get further than 7f, but she would be an interesting contender in one of the 7f Guineas trials in the spring.
Report FOYLESWAR December 31, 2020 7:04 PM GMT
aidens  joan of arc (galileo- yoursothrilling )  debuted november at dundalk over 7f btn , related to milers and 10f top class performers ,heavily backed 0/30 into 11/10 btn nose by hazel ,obvious potential bred in the purple  and related to gleneagles , vatican city etc, bit of a dark horse and 33s or better for the guineas worth watching
Report impossible123 January 16, 2021 10:27 AM GMT
Pretty Gorgeous has been matched at 20 here others still solid. Market manipulation or something else?
Report jamesp January 31, 2021 12:36 PM GMT
I don't think the tiny amount matched at 20 has any significance. The price quickly reverted to its previous level, though there isn't much liquidity in the market. People aren't queuing up to back Pretty Gorgeous, but it's the end of January and there's not much interest at the moment. The filly was out cantering on the gallops a couple of weeks ago, and she looked well.
Report jamesp January 31, 2021 12:40 PM GMT
re: Joan Of Arc. I agree she's one to keep an eye on. The Guineas will surely come too soon, but she should make up into a very nice three year old.
Report FOYLESWAR January 31, 2021 9:12 PM GMT
coolmore have been getting plenty of exp into their gns fillies ,the last 2 almost looking slightly exposed  mother earth has had even more races as a juv than those 2 , 9 in total ,it dont seem to matter with this yard  they still seem to improve  again as 3 yos although the last 2 love and hermosa were galileos ,i also  think mother earth is worth a bet she will go there battle hardened and 20s each way  or better is fair imo.
Report FOYLESWAR January 31, 2021 10:08 PM GMT
mother earth 25s sly
Report jamesp March 5, 2021 7:40 PM GMT
Following publication of the Guineas entries this week, Joseph O'Brien gave an update on Pretty Gorgeous: “She is obviously a course and distance winner so we know she gets the trip well. I was very pleased with the performance in the Fillies' Mile. It was a brave performance as she had a bit of an interrupted preparation going into the race. She is an exciting filly. Her pedigree suggests she will be open to stay further than a mile as well which gives her plenty of options. Like with Thunder Moon, she has wintered well and I'm pleased with where we are. She was consistently solid last season and hopefully we can keep it that way. She was fine on both soft and good ground so she is versatile ground-wise. A decision on whether she has a prep run will depend on how she is training and how we feel closer to the time.”
Report impossible123 March 6, 2021 8:29 PM GMT
Cheers 'jamesp'. I hope Joseph secures a double in the 1st 2 Classics.
Report FOYLESWAR March 21, 2021 6:44 AM GMT
joan of arc runs today at the curragh 2.30 over 7f , outstanding pedigree sisterto 6 winners ic gleneagles ,mavellous ,happily , dam a group 2 winner half sister to giants causeway ,just the 1 run at 2 narrowly btn by more exp rival . noticed shes been cut to 25s from 33s  by some firms . havent backed her for anything but interesting .
Report impossible123 March 21, 2021 8:05 PM GMT
Sorry! Typo error. I meant to put up 2000G.
Report FOYLESWAR March 21, 2021 8:13 PM GMT
joan of arc won  her maiden today more workmanlike than impressive but open to any amount of improvement .
Report impossible123 March 21, 2021 8:40 PM GMT
Unless their old man can conjure something up from last season the 2 O'Brien boys could have it between themselves with either Shale (good ground) or Pretty Gorgeous (softer). The winner today Joan Of Arc (Aiden) is only 10/1 with most bookies (are they for real?), but 16/1 with 'sly' and 365.
Report FOYLESWAR March 24, 2021 6:32 PM GMT
santa barbara into fav for the guineas ,aiden o b put up a very positive mention in his atr stable tour today ,2 shes done unbelivibly well in physical terms over the winter ,she goes through her work unbelevly well , she shows a lot of speed and has always worked with an awfull lot of class .wether we start her in the guineas trial at leopardstown or go straight to the guineas at newmarket we havent decided yet , we wont overace her we will keep her runs to a minimum if we can ,she shows an unbelivable amount of class at home ,in terms of her stamina shes by camalot so that will give her a chance of staying a mile and a quarter maybe further but she does show a lot of pace she showed a lot of pace on her debut ,she shows a lot of pace at home she just toys with horses in her work. we are very excited by her .
Report FOYLESWAR March 24, 2021 7:07 PM GMT
^she looks like a 5 yo filly aob said of santa barbara
Report FOYLESWAR March 24, 2021 7:10 PM GMT
soz "she looks like a 5yo colt^^^^^
Report impossible123 March 24, 2021 10:09 PM GMT
Santa Barbara 8/1 into 9/2 (as short as 10/3) - very short, just on bullish comments by her trainer.
Report FOYLESWAR March 25, 2021 6:57 AM GMT
yes 9/2 is  very short on what she has done on the racecourse, its what she is doing at home  ........... with this mob the rush of money is usually  significant .
Report impossible123 March 25, 2021 3:34 PM GMT
I'd be crushed if Santa Barbara wins this. Her short price defies logic. I'm on Pretty Gorgeous (with Shishkin), some with High Definition (Trixie); Envoi Allen could be an expensive unshipped post Epsom.
Report differentdrum March 25, 2021 5:11 PM GMT
I don't think the bar was set very high last year. O'Brien should have a pretty good idea what it takes to win a Guineas so the price is only short if he is talking a load of bull. Hopefully, for those who are on, she is too good for Moore to mess things up.
Report impossible123 March 25, 2021 5:17 PM GMT
Even the prices of Ballydoyle and Minding were significantly larger then Santa Barbara presently is; the prices of AOB's 2000G colts barely reflected his enthusiasm in the betting market.
Report FELTFAIR March 25, 2021 7:10 PM GMT
Moore does not "mess things up"
Report jamesp April 1, 2021 3:14 PM BST
Aidan O'Brien has been extravagant in his fulsome praise for Santa Barbara, based on her dominance on the gallops (nothing can match her, evidently), her physical appearance, and her sheer class. He does sound very excited indeed about this filly. So it's no surprise that bookies have taken swift evasive action and brought her down to a very short price. I can't possibly back her (or advise anyone else to back her) at current odds, as I always use racecourse evidence as the basis for betting, but it is very possible that she will win, and win easily, if she can transfer her scintillating home work to the racecourse.
It would be a remarkable training feat to win the Guineas with such an inexperienced filly. All of Aidan's previous 1000 Guineas winners had several races as juveniles (most of them competing in pattern company). Winter was the only one who did not make an appearance at pattern level, running three times in maiden company. Virginia Waters ran four times including Gr.3, Homecoming Queen ran 11 times including Gr.3, Minding ran five times including Gr.1, Hermosa ran seven times including Gr.1, and Love also ran seven times including Gr.1; all achieved a Racing Post Rating of 98+ apart from Winter, who was trained by David Wachman as a juvenile and did not race outside maiden company. Santa Barbara won her median sires maiden race easily (RPR 91), but in quite a slow time; the runner-up was beaten in all three subsequent races, and only one win (in a nursery) was recorded by the 11 horses that raced subsequently. On racecourse form you'd have to conclude that she's a promising filly who deserves a step up in grade, maybe a crack at a Guineas trial, and she's bred to be quite smart (she's a Camelot half-sister to Gr.1 Breeders Cup Mile winner Order Of Australia, whose European form was only about Gr.3 level, and multiple Gr.1 winner Iridessa, officially rated 116, in addition to several very moderate performers).
On racecourse form, Aidan's best Guineas prospect looks to be Mother Earth who improved significantly in the autumn and ran with great credit in the Gr.1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. If Santa Barbara is well ahead of that filly, and if she can transfer that ability to the track, then she's going to be very hard to beat. But it's all hypothetical at this stage.
Report FOYLESWAR April 1, 2021 3:35 PM BST
nice write up james agree with you on santa barbara i have laid some off for a profit  but kept a good bit ,on form she has it to do but as you say aob seems very keen and he would know ,weather she can repeat what she has been showing at home we will see ,he has been a bit quiet about mother earth but she has a decent chance if ling up imo.
Report impossible123 April 1, 2021 4:24 PM BST
AOB says Santa Barbara has the pace for this race too, and the stamina for 10f and 12f. If so, another Minding then. I may put her in some small stake doubles/trebles, but cannot back her singly on what she's done.
Report differentdrum April 1, 2021 6:13 PM BST
jamesp would have been an excellent post if it wasn't just a fleshing out of the points I had already made on the Santa Barbara thread. At least the Mother Earth bit was original.
Report impossible123 April 1, 2021 10:08 PM BST
If so, Pretty Gorgeous ought to be fav after the no-show shenanigan in France prior to the Fillies Mile at Newmarket. But for AOB Santa Barbara ought to be 16/1 at best on given form.
Report FOYLESWAR April 7, 2021 7:26 AM BST
pretty georgeous entered in the 1,000 gns trial at leopardtown this weekend ,also joan of arc ,empress josaphine ,mother earth shale
Report impossible123 April 7, 2021 5:07 PM BST
She is. I think she'd prefer a softer surface (good to firm at present) thus may not turn up. Also, she'd be giving 3lbs to the others except Shale her nemesis in the Moyglare.
Report jamesp April 8, 2021 12:27 PM BST
differentdrum  April 1, 2021 6:13 PM BST
jamesp would have been an excellent post if it wasn't just a fleshing out of the points I had already made on the Santa Barbara thread. At least the Mother Earth bit was original.

Oh, I haven't looked at the separate thread and didn't even know there was one, to be honest. I've just been keeping this thread open on a favourites tab. I'd already commented on Santa Barbara at the end of September (on this thread).
Report FOYLESWAR April 10, 2021 6:33 PM BST
1,000 gns trial tommorow leopardstown ,10/1 joan of arc looks too big to me superbly bred (galileo-yoursothrilling ), and improving .won a 20 runner 7f  maiden at the curragh  on soft and the step up to a mile will suit ,heffernan on stablemate empress josephine but with so many good und in the yard might not be so significant will have a saver on heffernans at 5s those 2 will do for me .
selection joan of arc 10/1 each way  bog and empress joshephine 5/1 win bet bog good luck opinions encouraged !
Report FOYLESWAR April 10, 2021 6:44 PM BST
ryan on donnachas shale and fav here ,last i heard shale hasnt grown much since last season and a 3 pound penalty prob the one to beat on form but up against potential improvers tommoz  .
Report jamesp April 11, 2021 3:27 PM BST
Mehnah was always going to be one to watch this season (as pointed out on this thread towards the end of September last year): this Frankel half-sister to Awtaad made a big impression when winning a Dundalk maiden last season, despite dwelling at the start and giving herself a lot to do. She made a similarly tardy start in today's Guineas trial at Leopardstown, racing in last at halfway before picking up in eye-catching style inside the last, just failing to get up, losing out by a head to the big outsider Keeper Of Time. The bare form looks shaky, and no doubt some of the O'Brien runners were far from fully wound up, but it was a highly promising seasonal debut and she can't be ruled out of the classic picture with any confidence. The favourite Shale (beaten nearly 3 lengths in 5th) ran a flat sort of race, and it remains to be seen how much improvement she will produce next time: she was quite a small filly last year (like her Guineas-winning dam), but being by Galileo she could go on and put this performance behind her. Joan Of Arc ran a promising race, coming to deliver her challenge in the last quarter mile before weakening in the latter stages to finish 6th (beaten 3¼ lengths).
Report blackbarn April 11, 2021 5:10 PM BST
I agree with you James re Mehnah.  I had flagged her up on the Hamdan RIP thread. She is as you know not entered in the UK Guineas but is, in the Irish one. I guess they may consider supplementing her for Newmarket, but that will depend on how she comes out of today's race, and how the two Varian Z's have wintered and are performing at home.
Report penzance April 11, 2021 7:20 PM BST
I like Indigo Girl for the Guineas,does have a bit
of a tendency to lose a length or two at the start
though.Could be Gosden's only 2nd winner of this.
Think she's a very good filly,myself.
Report impossible123 April 11, 2021 7:36 PM BST
Re: Indigo Girl. Did Gosden not allude to she'll be aimed at middle-distance races (possibly not Guineas)? Just recently it was the Prix de Diane (Epsom not mentioned).

Once again AOB cannot but wax lyrical about the well-being and potential of Santa Barbara. AOB: "Santa Barbara is doing very well. She's going thro' her work in 2nd gear with all the fillies."
Report penzance April 11, 2021 8:07 PM BST
just looked she is a bit weak on here(18s).
Was around the 12s mark a few weeks back.
Report penzance April 11, 2021 8:10 PM BST
cheers,imp,just seen she may go Pretty Polly.
Guineas still on the agenda aswell.Annoying
when they do that.
Report elisjohn April 11, 2021 8:57 PM BST
wasnt dancing brave 8/1 fav for 2000 before craven, bloody hell this obrien filly 5/2 for 1000 , madness
Report impossible123 April 11, 2021 10:15 PM BST
But for Pretty Gorgeous Santa Barbara would have been much shorter than 5/2 (2/1 with most). A shocking price for a filly that's only won a maiden race; if she wins her prep easily she'd most likely be odds-on, I believe.
Report FOYLESWAR April 12, 2021 9:28 AM BST
think she is going straight there imp .
Report impossible123 April 12, 2021 2:47 PM BST
I hope Santa Barbara does that as it'll give Pretty Gorgeous a chance to be recognised as a serious contender (esp on softer going). However, I think AOB will run her in one of the Trials in Ireland.
Report jamesp April 15, 2021 5:43 PM BST
Gosden hinted once again today that Indigo Girl will only be aimed at the Guineas if it's soft ground. Otherwise he sees her more as a 10f filly (Prix de Diane is a likely target).

Sacred was the only juvenile filly that impressed me at Royal Ascot last season, but I've always had doubts about her getting a mile. I thought she made a nice winning reappearance in the Nell Gwyn yesterday and is definitely worth her place in the Guineas line-up. There must still be a doubt about the trip, but she's a classy filly, who was not far off the top level last year. A few more pounds improvement needed.

Another with stamina doubts is the Cheveley Park winner Alcohol Free, who will run at Newbury in the Fred Darling on Sunday. She will need to settle better than she did on the Rowley Mile last autumn, but she's already not far off Guineas standard and should get the 7f trip on Sunday. Andrew Balding's runners have been going quite nicely, with a double at Newmarket this week.

It's a very strangely lop-sided market, with the promising Santa Barbara a crazily short 2/1 favourite. She could be a superstar, of course, but she hasn't proven it on the track and is still very inexperienced. I'm still keeping faith with Pretty Gorgeous, and I'm not concerned about the ground with her - she goes on any surface and certainly doesn't need soft ground (in fact, her action suggests she should be best on good or faster ground).
Report impossible123 April 15, 2021 6:54 PM BST
Santa Barbara is a silly price unless one is privy to inside (work) info. As such, what about her prospect in The Oaks? Will she stay? Pedigree wise probably, but AOB has indicated she's pacey. I do agree Pretty Gorgeous has the form and the stamina for this. I was impressed with her performance in the Fillies Mile after the debacle over feed at Longchamp on Arc Day; an easier ground will suit even more.
Report sageform April 18, 2021 12:34 PM BST
Alcohol Free should win today but I am not convinced she will stay a mile.
Report sageform April 18, 2021 1:04 PM BST
Snow Lantern good enough? Clearly stays a mile and saw off some useful colts there at Newbury.
Report jamesp April 18, 2021 1:05 PM BST
Nice performance by Snow Lantern in the opening mile maiden at Newbury this afternoon. Quickened up nicely and the front three pulled a long way clear. She's clearly pattern class and Richard Hannon must be tempted to let her take her chance in the Guineas.
Report jamesp April 18, 2021 1:06 PM BST
Whether she's good enough remains to be seen. Let's see how the winning times stack up later on the card.
Report sageform April 18, 2021 1:12 PM BST
The next 2 in the market were second and third and Derab had an RPR of 100 so it might easily be good enough.
Report jamesp April 18, 2021 1:14 PM BST
There's reportedly 'a chance' that Snow Lantern will go for the Guineas. A decision will be made tomorrow. She will also be entered for the Oaks.
Report jamesp April 18, 2021 1:16 PM BST
Derab's unadjusted RPR was 87 for that second to La Barrosa last season (strong maiden form).
Report sageform April 18, 2021 1:26 PM BST
Thanks. Yes, sorry about the 100, I forgot the weight adjustments. Need about 106-110 to win a 1000 Guineas.
Report jamesp April 18, 2021 1:43 PM BST
It usually takes a filly capable of about 115 (OR or RPR) to win the 1000 Guineas. There are several fillies who were already close to this sort of rating on last season's form (Pretty Gorgeous, Alcohol Free etc.).
Report jamesp April 19, 2021 12:03 PM BST
I think we should regard Alcohol Free's narrow win in the Fred Darling at Newbury yesterday as simply a good solid piece of work, probably the first time this year she has been asked to do anything serious. She was woolly in her coat and is sure to come on considerably for the run. The bare form is quite weak for the grade, with 79-rated Primo Bacio (100/1) close up in fourth, beaten 2½ lengths. The two placed fillies were promising unexposed types, have clearly done well over the winter and were entitled to surpass their previous ratings. Much more will be needed in the Guineas, and I'm far from convinced that she will get the mile trip in a strongly-run race. As in the Cheveley Park last autumn, she took quite a keen hold (perhaps just freshness), and she will need to settle better in the Guineas. The winning time was nearly half a second slower than the Greenham, adding to the impression that the form is nothing special.
Report impossible123 April 19, 2021 7:05 PM BST
Shocking to see the price of Snow Lantern (beaten by Zabeel Queen) shorter than Pretty Gorgeous the winner of the Fillies Mile and conqueror of Zabeel Queen. Similarly, One Ruler fav for the male equivalent despite beaten by Mac Swiney who'd been comprehensively beaten in the National Stakes by Thunder Moon, St Mark's Basilica and Wembley.
Report elisjohn April 20, 2021 6:29 AM BST
doubt snow lantern will get the oaks trip  ?,( betfair under rules of a particilar race eg derby gns used to put the confirmation date, 1st entries , supp dates etc etc    just noticed they dont have it anymore)
Report jamesp April 20, 2021 11:37 AM BST
Snow Lantern is a crazy price for the Guineas. She impressed in her maiden at Newbury, but she needs to find a huge amount of improvement (about 20 lbs, I would estimate) on that form in a very short space of time. She's inexperienced, she's also reportedly highly strung, and surely the Guineas will come too soon for her.
Report FOYLESWAR April 20, 2021 6:35 PM BST
hannon........snow lantern misses gns and goes to york
Report impossible123 April 24, 2021 6:23 PM BST
Santa Barbara? Hype or genuinely working the house down. We'll know in just a bit over a week's time. Good or better ground all round. No excuse.
Report jamesp April 25, 2021 10:40 PM BST
Since his four-timer at the Curragh on 17th April, Aidan O'Brien has had just two winners from 16 runners in the last week, including eight beaten favourites (four of them, all well fancied, at Navan today). Once again, it seems like some of his runners are not fully wound up for their seasonal debuts. The operation rarely leaves anything to chance in the really big races, but inexperience (quite apart from possible lack of peak fitness) must be a big worry for Santa Barbara, and Aidan O'Brien has hinted as much.
Report unclepuncle April 26, 2021 6:40 AM BST
SB might be the second coming but I am not paying to find out at the price on offer- well done to anyone on at double figures.

With the going likely to be really quick maybe one of the 6/7f types might last home but the only horse who looks to have the right credentials for a Guineas is Pretty Gorgeous and at 5/1 e/w looks a bet to nothing.
Report impossible123 April 26, 2021 8:45 PM BST
No Indigo Girl or Shale; Santa Barbara is still hot; Pretty Gorgeous is unlikely to get the soft ground she prefers.
Report jamesp April 27, 2021 1:07 PM BST
I don't believe that Pretty Gorgeous prefers soft ground. She handles soft ground very well, but she has a beautiful flowing action ideally suited to good or faster ground, and I believe she is very adaptable ground-wise.
Report impossible123 April 27, 2021 7:41 PM BST
That was what JOB said after the Fillies Mile. I hope she'd win.
Report layingisthewayforward April 30, 2021 9:40 AM BST
Pretty Gorgeous a non runner.
Report kincsem April 30, 2021 11:37 AM BST
Santa Barbara, 6/4, must be one of the most unusual classic favourites ever.
In the field of twelve she has the lowest RPR rating, the lowest Topspeed rating, and has no Official Rating.
She ran once and won, a maiden.  The next five behind her have won 1 race from 22.
She is drawn 1 in a field of 12.
Her trainer says she will be green.
Beating work companions is nice, but no recommendation.

I'll be throwing my money away on an outsider.
Report FOYLESWAR April 30, 2021 12:08 PM BST
kingsem a layers dream in most cases but you have the trainer comments , am on bigger prices but far from confident and have bigger bets on mother earth each way , have greened on the fav be crazy not to.
Report giggitygiggity April 30, 2021 12:26 PM BST
Pretty gorgeous as a NR was sickening for me. Still on Mother Earth at decent prices ..think she will go close. Poor field though
Report SeeMoreBusiness April 30, 2021 1:08 PM BST
me too giggity. Had her backed last October. She has come through 6 months unscathed and then at the last minute! Still, I have been quite lucky in last few years with AP bets but still.....
Report jamesp April 30, 2021 2:53 PM BST
Immensely frustrating to hear about the late withdrawal of Pretty Gorgeous (my 16/1 pick, months ago) Cry, but these things happen in racing. Mother Earth (Frankie Dettori) is now my sole interest (each way at bigger prices, following her run in the Breeders Cup) and she should go very well if straight enough for this seasonal debut. She improved throughout the autumn and may get the better of her inexperienced stablemate in what looks a weak renewal (if you ignore the favourite).
Report impossible123 April 30, 2021 6:45 PM BST
Pretty Gorgeous a nr could prove very expensive. I'd her (10/1) with Shishkin (7/2), Wembley (12/1) and High Definition (6/1) in trixies and trebles. And, I was late 'laying' her too for stake money. The peril of betting antepost. Anyway, I'm backing the "talking horse" in trebles.
Report kincsem May 1, 2021 5:22 PM BST
My selection is Thunder Beauty.
Three runs, 1st, 5th, 7th.
Bets at 20,24,25,26 nothing serious.
She went from a maiden into Group 1s.
Report FOYLESWAR May 1, 2021 6:55 PM BST
good luck kincsem ,santa barbara would be very good for me ,but mother earth would be massive been backing her  since last year while she was 25/1 then stopped when her price came down .  more hopefull than confident tbh.
Report unclepuncle May 1, 2021 6:57 PM BST
Can't touch the favourite at the price, even though it has drifted after the shocking runs of O'Briens colts today.

With stamina doubts about so many I have played Thunder Beauty (25) and Seattle Rock (110) but only for very small money.
Report Figgis May 1, 2021 10:55 PM BST
Even in most seasons without a standout performer there's usually a bit of depth to this race, but this year the standard really does look desperate for a classic. Coolmore obviously believe that Santa Barbara has been meeting their benchmark clockings for a 1000 winner, but they do get it wrong now and then. Even in the 80s/90s where many very lightly raced types were mopping up the other classics it was still unheard of for a 1000 winner to have only previously raced once in a maiden. Doesn't mean it can't be done of course but not my kind of bet at this kind of price, even in what looks a really poor renewal.

The trouble is an alternative selection can only be speculative. For me, the only rival that has run even close to the form required for winning a moderate running of this race is Sacred. I have her best run the Royal Ascot second, and believe she ran a bit below that on her later starts. Her trial win was encouraging as I don't have her running to her best but she looked like she could take a step forward from that. The trip is still an unknown but at the price I reckon she's worth a punt.
Report Schraderbrau May 1, 2021 11:21 PM BST
Not too enthused by the quotes from Haggas about getting the trip although I can't see why there'd be many question marks. Sired by a 7f winner, dam a 12f winner herself. Anyway, I like her. I like the name as well, has that classic winning feel to it even thouh that has nothing to do with her chances.
Report FELTFAIR May 2, 2021 10:58 AM BST
Backed Santa Barbara win and Mother Earth and Saffron Beach each way x4 places.
Report FOYLESWAR May 2, 2021 3:45 PM BST
biggest win ever ........................boom well done frankie !
Report impossible123 May 2, 2021 3:45 PM BST
What would Pretty Gorgeous have done to these lot? Well done backers of Mother Earth the horse with the best form on show.
Report impossible123 May 2, 2021 3:47 PM BST
'FOYLESWAR', it's you again. Very well done!
Report kincsem May 2, 2021 3:57 PM BST
Disappointed with Thunder Beauty.
In 3rd place for most of the race until disintegrated 2f out, finished 11th and last beaten 19 lengths.
Report FOYLESWAR May 2, 2021 4:01 PM BST
thanks imp also have it with the derby fav in some tasty each way doubles .
Report impossible123 May 2, 2021 4:06 PM BST
I wish you all the best 'FOYLESWAR'. She was definitely the filly with the best form. A Guineas double at rewarding odds too. What a combo!
Report FOYLESWAR May 2, 2021 4:14 PM BST
well done to james p and other winners ,great weekend !
Report roadrunner46 May 2, 2021 4:25 PM BST
anyone think santa barbara will beat mother earth easily next time (yes), you see how influential the jockey bookings for coolmore are on the market
Report jamesp May 2, 2021 5:27 PM BST
Well done FOYLESWAR and other backers of Mother Earth. The result has restored my faith in using top class juvenile form as the best guide to the 1000 Guineas (in most years, anyway!). Never be afraid of taking on an inexperienced maiden winner in top company.
Report FOYLESWAR May 2, 2021 5:32 PM BST
james coolmore seem to be getting a lot of exp into their gns winners last 3 hermosa love ,mother earth had  plenty of 2yo runs ,a new trend away from the unexposed types that you would look for in a gns
Report roadrunner46 May 2, 2021 6:28 PM BST
havent really read any of the threads on this race, did anyone on here actually say they were backing the favourite santa barbara
Report sageform May 2, 2021 7:17 PM BST
Snow Lantern would be the one to look out for when this lot meet again.
Report LoyalHoncho May 3, 2021 12:53 AM BST
Well done Foyles - some weekend.
Report elisjohn May 3, 2021 7:44 AM BST
yes superb foyles, i have said so on another thread as well Wink
Report elisjohn May 3, 2021 7:50 AM BST
james, im certain over the past 40 years that if youd back all group1 juvenile winners in the classics youd have made a healthy profit, if i get a chance today , ill see how many group1 juveniles   and group1 winners at 3 that have won the classics
Report FOYLESWAR May 3, 2021 8:33 AM BST
thanks guys ,will be difficult to emulate that weekend ...........
Report jamesp May 3, 2021 4:13 PM BST
elisjohn, back in the 1980s and 1990s Group 1 juvenile form was an extremely good guide to finding the winner of the 1000 Guineas. In the last 20 years it has continued to produce 1000 Guineas winners, though not in quite the same numbers.

Going back to the start of the 1980s, the following 1000 Guineas winners had either won or run very well in a Group 1 race (or in a race that has since been elevated to Group 1 class) on their final juvenile start:
1980 Quick As Lightning (won the Gr.3 Fillies' Mile); 1982 On The House (runner-up in the Cheveley Park Stakes); 1983 Ma Biche (won the Cheveley Park Stakes); 1984 Pebbles (close second in the Cheveley Park Stakes); 1985 Oh So Sharp (won the Fillies' Mile); 1986 Midway Lady (won the Prix Marcel Boussac); 1987 Miesque (won the Prix Marcel Boussac); 1988 Ravinella (won the Cheveley Park Stakes); 1990 Salsabil (won the Prix Marcel Boussac); 1991 Shadayid (won the Prix Marcel Boussac); 1992 Hatoof (close second in the Prix Marcel Boussac); 1993 Sayyedati (won the Cheveley Park Stakes); 1994 Las Meninas (runner-up in the Phoenix Stakes); 1995 Harayir (third in the Cheveley Park Stakes); 1996 Bosra Sham (won the Fillies' Mile); 1997 Sleepytime (unlucky third in the Fillies' Mile); 2003 Russian Rhythm (runner-up in the Cheveley Park Stakes); 2007 Finsceal Beo (wide-margin winner of the Prix Marcel Boussac before also winning the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes); 2008 Natagora (won the Cheveley Park Stakes); 2010 Special Duty (won the Cheveley Park Stakes); 2016 Minding (won the Fillies' Mile); 2019 Hermosa (runner-up in the Gr.1 Criterium International); 2020 Love (third in the Fillies' Mile); 2021 Mother Earth (runner-up in the Gr.1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf).

In addition: 2013 Sky Lantern (won the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes impressively before finishing unplaced in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf).

The following 1000 Guineas winners had not won or finished placed in a Group 1 race at two, but had won at Listed, Group 3 or Group 2 level:
1981 Fairy Footsteps (won what is now the Prestige Stakes impressively, beating fillies that subsequently won the May Hill and Fillies' Mile); 1989 Musical Bliss (won the Rockfel Stakes); 1998 Cape Verdi (won the Gr.2 Lowther Stakes, fourth in the Cheveley Park Stakes); 2000 Lahan (won the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes); 2002 Kazzia (won the Gr.3 Premio Dormello); 2004 Attraction (won the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes impressively); 2006 Speciosa (won the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes); 2011 Blue Bunting (won the Listed Montrose Stakes); 2012 Homecoming Queen (won the Listed Lanwades & Staffordstown Studs Stakes); 2014 Miss France (won the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes); 2018 Billesdon Brook (won the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes).

Beaten at Group 2 level as juveniles: 1999 Wince (placed in a Listed race, unplaced in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes); 2001 Ameerat (runner-up in the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes, unplaced in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes).

Beaten at Group 3 or Listed level as juveniles: 2005 Virginia Waters (third in the Gr.3 CL Weld Park Stakes, then runner-up in a Listed race); 2015 Legatissimo (runner-up in a Listed race).

The only fillies in the last 40 years to have won the 1000 Guineas without having competed in at least Listed company at two were Ghanaati (2009) and Winter (2017).
Report elisjohn May 3, 2021 4:40 PM BST
great for that james
Report FOYLESWAR May 8, 2021 9:19 PM BST
well done giggity
Report impossible123 May 11, 2021 6:54 PM BST
Mother Earth the winner here is going for the French 1000G this sunday. As such very, very unlikely to do battle with Pretty Gorgeous (assuming she's well) in the Irish equivalent on 23rd May (surely); Indigo Girl is more likely Prix de Diane (20th June) bound too unless it's soft in Ireland.

Good thinking by AOB.
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