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onehundredandeighty
15 Aug 19 19:09
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Date Joined: 01 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 2,651 | Blogger: onehundredandeighty's blog
Will be at York the Saturday so let your opinions flow
Pause Switch to Standard View What wins the Ebor then?
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Report Fourgoldcups August 15, 2019 8:53 PM BST
Mekong main bet. Convinced it has been laid out for it. Owner had Warringah 2l clear inside final furlong a few years back and, unbelievably, it came 5th.Royal Line as a saver.
Report Meyer Lansky August 18, 2019 1:16 PM BST
Prince of Arran
Report willie the milk August 18, 2019 6:04 PM BST
Royal Line for me. Looks like Johnny G has laid it out for this massive pot. Nobody better at getting one ready
Report FELTFAIR August 18, 2019 8:55 PM BST
Short list Gold Mount and Raymond Tusk.
Report Madhu August 18, 2019 10:46 PM BST
Mekong

My two ante-post plays once the entries were published were the first two from the 2m Esher Stakes at Sandown. From a phone interview with an Australian radio station it all looked rosy with the Ebor the possible target for Falcon Flight before a possible tilt this year at the Melbourne Cup but Mr Weld left the door open for the Lonsdale. In hindsight the way he finished up the Sandown hill I can see why keeping to two miles is the better option when considering he thinks he’s a potential Gold Cup horse next year. As for Mekong I guess he has been laid out for the race but I would go back to his progressive three-year-old campaign and this year’s £1,000,000 purse for the beginnings of any plan. His owner Philip Newton breeds late maturing middle distance stayers. By the mighty Frankel, his smart dam Ship’s Biscuit won over 14f and was placed in the Listed Noel Murless Stakes over the same distance at 3 and is a Tiger Hill (11.3f) half-sister to the high class pair Hi Calypso (G3Lillie Langtry Fillies' Stakes,  G2 Park Hill Stakes) and Warringah, who coincidently from stall 1/ low draw had an easy lead in the 2009 Ebor before being driven clear just under 2f out only to bottom out  for 5th swamped by a few coming from the rear.

Given two educational rides by Ted Durcan at 2 and gelded,  Mekong began his sophomore year winning a 10f novice stakes before taking in the London Gold Cup at Newbury (unplaced) en route to the Bilbury Cup, where he ran well for 2nd on pretty fast ground, however, over the next 2 months he blossomed and progressed over 14f- won a rich Chelmsford handicap off 88, set a strong pace running 4th in the Melrose, won another rich Class 2 handicap at Haydock on heavy ground before finally running a personal best in the Listed Noel Murless Stakes just behind the Melrose winner Ghostwatch and well ahead of Austrian School and Enbihaar (now MG2W in the Lancashire Oaks over 12f and an impressive 5l winner of the 14f Lilly Langtry). Given his immaturity and keenness at times and size and scope he finished the year as a potential stakes staying horse at four.

By my reading his improved run in the Henry II stakes at Sandown first time out this year had  a bit of maturation about it mentality-wise, and he received a sufficient rating upgrade but his next run at York where he got lose on the lead was dreadful. However, he was much more straightforward when given a masterful re-educational ride back at two miles in Sandown’s Esher Stakes, where Ryan Moore let him gently find his stride, made an easy midrace move to press for the lead before taking it up over 2f out and he ran resolute in defeat being outstayed by a potential G1 stayer. I believe the race has been underrated when you consider the distance back to Cleonte, the Queen Alexandra Stakes winner and think the conditioning there will preclude a much more seasoned performance in the Ebor itself over his optimal distance and at 25/1 Mekong is a cracking bet.

With a high class field, a weight-range of around 10lb and the majority of them split by just 5lb there is obviously plenty of worthy opponents.

Kings Advice is a deserving favourite off the back of another improved performance but no value at 7/1.

Withold is unexposed, has good place prospects but I think his 6lb rise was a bit steep therefore poor value at 8’s.

Raheen House appears hard-to-win-with having not won since 2017 but this is his first race in a handicap and he would be interesting with the capable claimer Cieren Fallon on board given the excellent record of horses ridden by apprentices over the past 10 years.

Ben Vracki is 1 from 9, been beaten 3 times off 104 and rated 108 and is too often slowly away but his run at Ascot gives him possibilities with a better start and luck in running.

Baghdad’s progression is possibly past his sell by date given his diminutive size for the time being but he owes me nothing.

That’s my take, bee lucky.
Report doncaster rover August 19, 2019 9:03 AM BST
Well don’t know what will win it but I have a share in Raymond Tusk who is a definite runner in the Ebor,to be honest I firmly believe he is not out of it ,and with the luck I’m having just now I could really do with a good run and hopefully a place the prize money is fantastic.ive got six horses four are lame one of them needs a furlong start to win a five furlongs race this leave Raymond Tusk and the fees are due for 3 of the horses so any prize money would be a good help.Raymond Tusk May go for the Irish Ledger if he comes out of the race ok
Report elisjohn August 19, 2019 12:11 PM BST
a mate of mine has done wells farrh go few weeks back, keeps asking me if i know if hes running or not etc, does anyone know any news about this horse. thx
Report doncaster rover August 19, 2019 1:14 PM BST
Apparently the declarations are out today around 2/o’clock,
Report doncaster rover August 19, 2019 1:17 PM BST
Really don’t think my Raymond Tusk is out of this he didn’t run bad when 3rd behind Crystal Ocean giving him 2 lbs the Gold Cup was clearly to far for him but was going very well at the 14 furlongs mark
Report dunlaying August 19, 2019 3:05 PM BST
I too think that Raymond Tusk has a chance at the weights .
Report FELTFAIR August 19, 2019 7:35 PM BST
Looks like Gold Mount is not running. SO I will insert Raheen House alongside Raymond Tusk,
Report dunlaying August 20, 2019 1:43 PM BST
My short list is a bit longer than yours Feltfair .
Barsanti
Proschema
Raymond Tusk
Raheen House
Desert Skyline
Report FELTFAIR August 20, 2019 2:22 PM BST
"Everybody Loves Raymond"
Report dunlaying August 23, 2019 1:44 PM BST
I think Barsanti is e/w value at 25/1 . He is well weighted and likes York . He has never been out of the first two here .
Report Platini August 23, 2019 4:09 PM BST
Slybet are going 8 places, so I've had a few e/w with them

Dramatic Queen at 25/1
Weekender at 16/1
The Grand Vizir at 25/1

Barsanti is the other one I'm looking at (25/1). but I'm put off by the low draw.
Probably will still bet it, but to smaller stake.
Report doncaster rover August 26, 2019 11:28 AM BST
Y horse Raymond Tusk ( share of ) ran well to be fourth but so gutted he didn’t win I had backed him to win over twenty k plus my shar of the 600 k first prize would have been very handy
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