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04 Feb 19 20:48
Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 10,817 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Native River (NR evens) and Clan Des Obeaux (CDO 7/4) are the two big boys; Gold Cup winner vs King George winner respectively; CDO beat NR 13.5l in the King George. The ground is soft at present with more rain forecast.

This's been the prep race for NR over the last two years prior to Cheltenham. But will CDO show as Nicholls had indicated post the King George it would be pointless getting into a fight with NR prior to Cheltenham?
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Report Andriy February 5, 2019 1:06 PM GMT
I don't see why he won't show, Nicholls has had this in mind as his prep since the KG, knowing that Native Ruler would likely also be there. Even if ground could be on soft side for CDO, i can't think of alternative races(?).
Report impossible123 February 5, 2019 2:15 PM GMT
I think Nicholls specifically said he'd not want CDO to be in a fight with Native River (NR) in this race or prior to the main event at Cheltenham, and could go there fresh; NR won 2x at the same track and distance. Also, the ground could even be softer than the present soft with rain forecast between now and saturday.
Report impossible123 February 5, 2019 4:50 PM GMT
A change of mind from Nicholls: "We're looking forward to running him on saturday. He's in good shape but will improve from saturday to the Gold Cup."
Report dunlaying February 6, 2019 8:15 PM GMT
Native River is too short . I felt his hesitancy at Haydock was because he needed the run but at Kempton he never looked happy . Fair to say the track was too sharp but not between the start and the first fence .
Report Fistfulofdollars February 13, 2019 10:06 AM GMT
I hope (and may well be well off the mark) I'm wrong but I just wonder if last year's gold cup left their psychological mark on Native River and Might Bite. Remember Denman had 10 more races after his mighty achievement beating Kauto Star and won only one. He was beaten favourite (once at 1/6) six times. Neither Might Bite or Native River have shown near their mark of last year so far. Until he wins again I ill be cautious. I thought Annibale Fly was a sporting 10/1 shot on the exchanges until the race was re-scheduled, given likely heavy ground. Need to see now what opposition but for me it will be a watching brief.
Report impossible123 February 13, 2019 3:35 PM GMT
NR is a very resolute and tough cookie; plenty of runs the season before last, and still performed wonders. The £1m bonus opening leg at Haydock was unusually early, and the King George (KG) on unsuitable track were valid excuses for not winning yet he ran credibly to be placed in both races. And with a break of 10 weeks since the KG to Gold Cup day, I think, if ground is softish he'll once again be the one to beat.

The reschedule Denman Chase at Ascot looks tasty for Clan Des Obeaux - Nicholl and jockey could be smiling all the way to the bank post race, I firmly believe.
Report sageform February 14, 2019 9:46 AM GMT
Tizzard quoted as not wanting to run NR right handed as he felt that he was not happy going that way at Kempton.
Report impossible123 February 14, 2019 10:07 AM GMT
The £1m bonus was the only incentive NR ran at Kempton - nothing else. He will not do so again next season, if he's sound and stays in training. And neither the Betfair Chase as it's too early in the season; the Welsh National, and maybe even the Aintree National or the Gold Cup, I believe.
Report saxon farm February 14, 2019 11:50 AM GMT
If he was mine his two pre Cheltenham runs would be the big chases at Leopardstown.
Report ReaseHeath February 14, 2019 12:15 PM GMT
He was n't eligible for the £1m bonus was he? He'd already been beaten by Bristol De Mai at Haydock.

I remember reading quotes prior to the King George and got the distinct impression that the owner was the driving force behind Native River running at Kempton, I suspect that Tizzard was lukewarm about the idea and would've preferred to go to Leopardstown - just me reading between the lines though, no proof.
Report Fistfulofdollars February 14, 2019 6:25 PM GMT
I'm not sure the King George was that strong. I remain unconvinced with Might Bite and NR's level of form (notwithstanding the latter may not have liked the RH of Kempton). At 2/5 CDO is far too short imo and I much prefer terrefort at c3/1.
Report buddeliea February 14, 2019 7:01 PM GMT
I could not understand NR running in the King George,so owner being the driving force behind it would not surprise me at all.
What would surprise me is the Tizzard's thinking he could win the race!!
Still if he repeats his performance in the Gold Cup from last year in March, maybe they will feel justified in his campaign.
Report dunlaying February 15, 2019 11:44 AM GMT
This race looks primed for a turn up . I think the favourite is way too short .
Report dunlaying February 15, 2019 4:25 PM GMT
Tilting at windmills I have backed Ballyhill .
Report impossible123 February 18, 2019 8:42 AM GMT
Would CDO have beaten NR had NR run in the Denman at Ascot? I think he would given his facile win, and Ascot not suiting NR as much as Newbury would have; NR had never run at Ascot too.
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