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SOULDANCER
09 Jan 19 09:29
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Date Joined: 06 Apr 06
| Topic/replies: 2,804 | Blogger: SOULDANCER's blog
Entries are out.

I have to go out , back at 2pm, lets see some activity on here.

About time this forum woke up.
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Report SOULDANCER January 9, 2019 2:15 PM GMT
Looked at last few years, noticed 2 out of last 3 years this won by  horse placed in Tolworth Hurdle.

Was gonna jump on 33-1 Grand Sancy if he placed Saturday but somehow forgot, 25-1 when I remembered but still didn't bet. 14-1 now.

So I'm prob biased against him now. Gone up 6lb now, that's off-putting. 4th in competitive h'cap time before last ridden by 5lb claimer, would need claimer again for me to be interested and maybe not then.
Report Kabuta January 9, 2019 2:34 PM GMT
I know he's fav but Al Dancer looks very special, bit of class about him
Report SOULDANCER January 9, 2019 3:53 PM GMT
Agree with that just looked at Al Dancer and Getaway Trump both 8-1 and it's very hard to split them, they are worthy favourites.
  Maybe, perhaps, I'm not sure, the trip could just swing it for Getaway Trump if it was 4 furlongs further I'd definitely go Al Dancer.

Find it hard to believe anything could trouble these two.
Report Hibore January 9, 2019 11:12 PM GMT
I like the look of Lisp who should be suited by the fast run race. Could be near top of weights which is a bit of a negative. 20/1 is worth a punt
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 10, 2019 8:21 AM GMT
On both the top two in betting at 10s 17/2* (*badbrokes odds boost) and 8s, early birds and all that, price was there at 0830 gone 0840 so went in again at 0845 took 8s yesterday

Also on Lisp at 25s and a speculative punt on a willy mullins hoss called Sayar at 25s, looking at his form has clearly had problems, might be throwing money down the drain here or might be on a dark one

I also looked at Grand Sancy, but alas not for me at this stage, probs be 20s on the day anyways

GL all Wink
Report gpz6316 January 10, 2019 10:26 PM GMT
i like lisp too , on the face of two seconds some will just look at the form figures and think hes plateaued , but , he has produced in high quality fields very progressive form ,in terms of the class of the race . each run is a big improvement on the previous if you look at the prizemoney . hes not treading water. in my mind he should be favourite , that is concerning .
Report gpz6316 January 10, 2019 10:42 PM GMT
also the top 3 in the betting have been winning 5k - 10k races and the favourite has never even come under pressure (al dancer) thats a big neg . " your a long way from starbucks homie " says dr dre to ethan hawke in" training day " as are the top 3 in the betting !
Report gpz6316 January 10, 2019 10:52 PM GMT
his profile is reminiscent of starchitect whom i had a good bet on before fate intervened . 111 in 5-10k races is not better than 1- 7k 2- 28k  2-86k
Report ReaseHeath January 10, 2019 11:00 PM GMT
No bet yet but just scanned the entries and a couple of things struck me:

Leoncavallo - seemingly rejuvenated since joining Dr Newland - Galway Hurdle form looks even better in retrospect on ground softer than ideal, admittedly not obviously well handicapped and would want the dry(ish) weather to continue

Didtheyleaveuoutto - I'd be prepared to overlook his last run,but he would also need decent ground to be a contender I think

A couple of warnings: Alan King has already ruled out Brandon Castle and Amy Murphy's Esprit De Baileys needs to run in another hurdle race in UK/Ireland/France to qualify and currently has no entries...
Report SOULDANCER January 11, 2019 12:48 PM GMT
Those that have come here from novice hurdles have done well. Getaway Trump's 2nd in the £25,000 Challow hurdle is right up there with previous winners.
Report brendrew January 11, 2019 7:15 PM GMT
Al dancer all day
Report deepingfox January 13, 2019 7:23 PM GMT
At the prices JETEZ at 33/1 for me.

I have backed him for this race before his Grade 2 second place today, where he gave the winner way too much of a lead, and was the only one able to pull away from the pack, in Chase, with 15lengths back to third.

Still like him for the Betfair, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he stayed on 136 official rating, or at worst go up only two or three pounds.

They may well put on the 7lb claimer again, and get a really attractive weight.
Report Mystic Wind January 16, 2019 1:56 PM GMT
Lacking originality, but another vote for Al Dancer here.

He was pretty impressive at Cheltenham. He's gone up 12lbs for winning (by 11 lengths, runner-up has won since) but reading between the lines suggests that NTD thinks he's still got a bit in hand (as he has on my ratings). He doesn't look ground-dependent either and although head gear usually puts me off there was nothing wrong with his attitude last time.

This year's renewals of the Challow (Getaway Trump) and Tolworth (Grand Sancy) look a bit 'meh' to me, and nothing else appeals.

0.5pt Al Dancer @ 13/2

Good luck.
Report gpz6316 January 16, 2019 9:13 PM GMT
regardless of the result , i think the race will produce a top 3 finisher in the supreme and give formlines regarding other uk hurdlers class . this will be the foundation of my personal opinion regarding the supreme . imho i dont think al dancer will be cherry ripe for this as his profile and trainer suggest its all about chelts though i,m sure he,ll run well . we do know mr henderson will have one as good as can be though , also getaway trumps prep lto certainly suggests he will be full bore . a lot to consider for this race and the supreme . with trepidation regarding lisps price i will wait , has he already given full bore lto ? not sure . sure it will be interesting though best of luck
Report SOULDANCER January 16, 2019 11:07 PM GMT
53 entered.

I read on trend site 60% of entries were pulled out at 5 day stage one year. Wonder if this is the norm.

In a normal year, disregarding the year Mullins was going for British trainers title, there have been between 1 and 3 Irish trained runners. Hard to know who will come over.

Gary Moore seems to love this race and both Not Never and Ar Mest picked up 5lb penalties this week, see he has 10lb claiming jock too.

Just Getaway Trump 8-1 for me so far, mostly 6-1 now, if they offer 6 places on day might go for something e.w.
Report SOULDANCER January 16, 2019 11:08 PM GMT
53 entered.

I read on trend site 60% of entries were pulled out at 5 day stage one year. Wonder if this is the norm.

In a normal year, disregarding the year Mullins was going for British trainers title, there have been between 1 and 3 Irish trained runners. Hard to know who will come over.

Gary Moore seems to love this race and both Not Never and Ar Mest picked up 5lb penalties this week, see he has 10lb claiming jock too.

Just Getaway Trump 8-1 for me so far, mostly 6-1 now, if they offer 6 places on day might go for something e.w.
Report SOULDANCER January 24, 2019 11:51 AM GMT
It was 56 entered.

Only 4 Irish left in, if I have that count right. Checking their official ratings in Irish Ladbroke and Betfair is as follows.

                      Lad    Betf
Saglawy               147    149
Jetez                 136    145
Sayar                 136    134
High Expectations     129    133


Not Never             130    130 not Irish but was entered in both, surprisingly pulled out of Betfair

  Looking at that Jetez hasn't been treated as kindly as the others.

With difference in Irish and English Official Ratings why hasn't Not Never rating been dropped for Ladbroke?
Report SOULDANCER January 24, 2019 12:57 PM GMT
Looking at that now you'd think,or I would, that Jetez must take in the Lad hurdle at Leopardstown. I've convinced myself 14-1 e.w. is worth a bet.
Report gpz6316 January 24, 2019 8:38 PM GMT
i dont like al dancer myself . watching the vt of his last run although he "stayed on strongly and won easily "what that doesnt say is that he came under a full bore ride from sam after the last whom imo overrode him (spacially unaware ). subsequently hes been put up all he has in the locker at this moment . i also dont like the way he climbed at the last rather than making a shape
Report unclepuncle February 5, 2019 6:30 PM GMT
With plenty of the wet stuff in the forecast I, like a few earlier posters, really like Lisp e/w - the high weight tempers me from having a win only bet.

14/1 currently is decent value but will wait till Friday evening and see what offers are available as I'm sure some bookies will be going 6 or even 7 places.
Report unclepuncle February 5, 2019 7:06 PM GMT
On reflection I have decided to have a decent bet (2/3 win, 1/3 place) at the 14/1 now as I can see it being a fair bit shorter come Friday evening.
Will then back it again each way at the best odds/terms possible on Friday/Saturday - the place parts of my bets is only ever to cover stakes anyway.
Report lewisham ranger February 5, 2019 9:13 PM GMT
al dancer and getaway trump have been found by the market. besides, only one horse in the last ten years has won this race carrying 11 stone 5 or more, and that was last year with kalashnikov.

think monsieur lecoq very interesting if the price also short. nordic combined also interesting.
Report unclepuncle February 6, 2019 8:39 AM GMT
With novices having such a good record Zanza at 25/1, 5 places is also worth a few quid e/w.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 9, 2019 12:43 PM GMT
Did anyone get to see what the final decs were ?
Report SOULDANCER February 10, 2019 6:52 AM GMT
21 left in on Betfair antepost, only one Irish.

I was sitting pretty with Getaway Trump 8-1 and easy trades on him and Al Dancer, how could I not win?

Always a way not to.

And I haven't been pretty for years.
Report impossible123 February 10, 2019 6:58 PM GMT
Will this be rescheduled next weekend, assuming racing goes ahead on thursday? If so, is antepost prices still valid in the event of withdrawal/s or a new one be formed? Thanks.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 10, 2019 9:21 PM GMT
Different firms have different rules on rescheduling of races where antepost is concerned. If rescheduled for a different venue the general rule of thumb is all antepost are void, including any non runners that were placed before entry stage. Although some firms do offer the punter the choice to keep or void not all do i am afraid the onus is on the punter to contact their bookie and ask.

If the race is rescheduled to run at the same venue then all antepost stand run or not as they did before.

Happened a few times to me where i've 'backed' the winner of a rescheduled race antepost only to find my stake returned after the event Cry

One Man - King George rescheduled from Kempton to Sandown is the one that really sticks in memory CryCryCry Though i had a few bets on him on the day too

Another time was when the King George was run in the January, i backed Sizing Europe, thinking it would be a void bet as sure to reschedule at Sandown again i was shocked when they rescheduled back at Kempton so was lost when Hdb decided to not run.
Report impossible123 February 10, 2019 10:01 PM GMT
Many thanks.
Report Mystic Wind February 11, 2019 8:11 AM GMT
The one that sticks in my craw is Master Oats' Welsh National in '94. I had a decent ante post bet on him only for the race to be rescheduled to Newbury a few days later and the bet therefore voided. He dotted-up at Newbury by 20 lengths Cry

Still, every cloud and all that. I'd also had a decent bet on him for the Gold Cup at the time and got ample compensation when he dotted-up again in March by 15 lengths. Grin On soft ground he was one of the best I've seen. What a year that was for Kim Bailey, with Alderbook taking a busman's holiday to hose-up in the Champion Hurdle as well.
Report ReaseHeath February 11, 2019 6:22 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2019 -- 1:43PM, Ibrahima Sonko wrote:


Did anyone get to see what the final decs were ?


Ballyandy
Ch'tibello
Lisp
Leoncavallo
Getaway Trump
Mont Des Avalors
Al Dancer
Blu Cavalier
Didtheyleaveuoutto
Sussex Ranger
Distingo
Zanza
Nordic Combined
Countister
High Expectations
William H Bonney
Monsieur Lecoq
Splash Of Ginge
West To The Bridge
Ar Mest
Nelson's Touch

I think though they'd revert initially to the original 5 day declarations if it is re-scheduled - maybe somebody can confirm?

Other thought is that the weather has taken a benign turn again - original race was set to take place on soft ground but we might end up with something significantly better than that - obviously depending on when, where and if it takes place.

Geraghty had plumped for Countister with Aidan Coleman on Didtheyleaveuoutto - I could see that changing (albeit idle speculation at this point)

Report ReaseHeath February 11, 2019 11:35 PM GMT
Now to be run at Ascot on Saturday (along with the Denman Chase)
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 12, 2019 7:17 PM GMT
Did Ballyandy have Nailor Or Savage on claiming 7lb ?

Thanks ReaseHeath.
Report Tucho February 12, 2019 11:00 PM GMT
No, Jamie Bargary was on Ballyandy. Nailor was meant to be riding Splash of Ginge.
Report ReaseHeath February 12, 2019 11:01 PM GMT
neither - Jamie Bargary - Nailor was claiming 7lb on Splash Of Ginge but 'Ginge' surely won't run on Saturday if it continues to dry out so jockey arrangements for NTD could be subject to change ('flu vaccinations permitting)
Report ReaseHeath February 12, 2019 11:16 PM GMT
they've reverted to the original entry list which is neither use nor ornament at this stage

of those who were among the final decs at Newbury, Countister, Leoncavallo and Monsieur Lecoq won't be able to run because thy have n't had a 'flu jab in the last 6 months - I'm sure there will be more but they're the ones I can find on Twitter just now...
Report nocturnal February 13, 2019 12:41 AM GMT
Plucked from another site........probably useless for this renewal.

11/11 aged 5/6

10/11 2 runs or more current season

8/11 ran within 63 days

9/11 2 prev wins 15-17 f

8/11 OR 132 or above

7/11 1 win or more current season

9/11 OR 141 or below

6/11 OR between 132-137


From original decs Chtibello off 146 ? tops the weights,everything looks in the handicap proper if thats the case,weights set to go up 7 lb if thats correct.

Quite what we get entry wise,as Rease points out,complete guesswork.

The timing to the Festival would still be ok,4 weeks sounds about right if your seeking to blow the cobwebs away,and protect a mark.

Looking for a young horse thats not shown his hand completely,but will have some winning form down the line.

Take out last years winner,Zark and MTOY,a very narrow ratings band between 132-137 for 6 recent winners,that may be a starting point.

Not a big fan of right handed tracks,not convinced many produce their very best form this way round,find one that does and it can be worthwhile long term.

Does feel like this is an after-thought,but way better than how it looked just a few days ago.

Still the winner is in there somewhere,hold off until overnight decs.
Report gpz6316 February 13, 2019 9:31 PM GMT
lisp reminds me of get me out of here , he should go well . i reckon al dancer will need to be the dogs nads . i think the jump in grade will find him out . getaway trump is all based on his champ run and those that finished behind either havent run or not run as well as expected , i sense there is still hope regarding the nick gifford horse .
Report IrisDeBalme February 14, 2019 3:05 PM GMT
What happens to ante post bets on this race ... now that course has changed from Newbury to Ascot

I have better ante post with betfreds
Report impossible123 February 14, 2019 4:22 PM GMT
Using the Denman Chase as a guide all antepost bets refunded given a different day and course. Thus the same would apply here too.
Report IrisDeBalme February 14, 2019 5:14 PM GMT
Thanks impossible

Interesting that previously bets would be honoured in similar circumstances in the past

After all it’s ante post Hills  are honouring bets

Got Getaway Trump at 16s and Al dancer 10s feel short changed !
Report unclepuncle February 15, 2019 1:02 PM GMT
So frustrating that the conditions are the complete opposite to what would have been the case last week.

Can still see Lisp running well but his connections, like me, must be gutted how things have turned out.Cry

Didtheyleaveuouto is the interesting one but why on earth is William Kennedy booked?  Never ridden it before, barely had a ride or a winner all season and he can’t even claim any weight off. Enough to deter me at 8/1.

William H Bonney at 25/1 looks a bit of value so have had a small bet on him for the sake of having an interest.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 15, 2019 8:43 PM GMT
Shocking race going the wrong way around on inconsistent Ascot ground with a tight sprinting run in.

Feel sorry for the sponsors and Newbury racecourse. Plus as an xmas pressie i booked my bro a table for 2 in the Hennessy at Newbury for the betfair hurdle, now i got to find him a present as good as that Plain
Report SOULDANCER February 17, 2019 10:01 AM GMT
Al Dancer won well enough, Getaway Trump, held up, was asked a lot with the first three all up with the pace. Ar Mest didn't need the 5lb penalty to get in, good run in fifth. Could improve again and one to keep onside in future h'caps.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 17, 2019 9:21 PM GMT
Feel down, as an xmas present bought my bro and sister in law a table in the Hennessy restaurant for the best handicap hurdle around.

My brother adores NTD and backed Splash Of Ginge when we were both at the Hennessy restaurant a few years back, mainly because one of his daughters is a ginger & our lovely waitress on that day was a redhead too.

He was ball deep on Al Dancer. I now have to buy them a replacement xmas pressie. Plain
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