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pmt
02 Dec 18 12:43
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Date Joined: 02 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 284 | Blogger: pmt's blog
I am connected to 2 of the 37 entries so I am very interested in your views on the race. the first four in the betting are :
Rather Be  who was unlucky to be brought down 4 out in the Betvictor when favourite and travelling well.
Baron Alco , up 6lbs for that win and is likely to run a similar race again. The handicapper in his blog stated that he he took the view that the carnage in behind left him unable to assess the value of the race so he was lenient .He isnt easy to pass and we are quite bullish about his chances again.
Theatre Territory who has been knocking on the door in tough races and should have been raised 7lbs for his last run behind Ibis Du Rheu but the handicapper cannot raise beaten horses in novice chases so he is 7lbs well in here.
Guitar Pete, who has run well three times at Cheltenham over this distance in these big handicaps winning this race last year off 3lbs lower and third in the \Betvictor this year.

Casse Tete is also entered in the same ownership as Baron Alco and to be honest he is a faster horse on the home gallops but he is hard to get fit and healthy, there might be a big race in him at some point but its hard to be sure when. Casse tete  isnt a certain runner.
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Report nocturnal December 2, 2018 3:52 PM GMT
Early thoughts.

Decent entry,half a dozen at least I have as potentially well above current mark.

4 of the last 11 winners came from the Nicholls yard,not all were the 1st string.

That team hold the weight card with Frodon,164 puts him 10lb above anything else at present.

Without him the handicap will look very different,the yard have 7 entries,were he to stay in,it may also benefit some of his other entries,a game played out weekly.

Only Poquelin, dual winner,has been successsful above a rating of 150,winning off 151 and a welter rating of 163,in the last 11 runnings.

That sums up the task horses like Baron Alco off 152 have to overcome,not easily overlooked.

The new course presents a different challenge,that long run for home could just suit a real galloping type who likes to go from the front.

Sit tight PMT.....your lads a player this far out.
Report shlotter December 2, 2018 9:17 PM GMT
Aso, if he goes could be a very live danger. There is definate improvement from him to come and that was a decent performance. Baron Alco was a very game winner, but the new course is more a stamina test and if Baron Alco doesn't shake them off before the last, I think he could find himself a sitting duck.
Report SOULDANCER December 3, 2018 9:18 AM GMT
If Frodon runs Theatre Territory will be 6lb out of handicap.
  Baron Alco has a great chance again as the weights stand. If Frodon comes out Baron Alco will be near top weight and not being that big don't know how much that would hurt his chances, I'd be tempted not to run.
  Wouldn't want to see him continuing running near top weight in handicaps but suppose it's worth the chance just this once.
pmt, any doubt who is riding him this time?
Report pmt December 3, 2018 11:26 AM GMT
He is Jamie's ride but if Benatar runs he is also Jamie's ride so he will have another tough choice. Frodon is entered at Aintree in the Grand Sefton over the National fences this Saturday and also in the King George.He might well run in both those as they are 18 days apart. Baron Alco will run in the Caspian anyway as there is nothing else for him in handicaps. If we ran him in the Grade 1 chases he gets outspeeded by 165 rated  horses on the run in.
Report nocturnal December 3, 2018 1:01 PM GMT
Be amazed if Frodon ran in the Sefton off current mark.Cheltenham looks his track,more importantly, what might be his target later on.He went off 9/1 in the Ryannair,not unfancied,after a pretty busy campaign.Those would not have been his ideal conditions,still only 6 yr old he would not look out of place should they go that route again.
Also be surprised if Theatre Territory runs here,looks nailed on for the Beecher given connections.

PS.......Can we keep Casse left handed,that sandown race fell apart way back,will the jockey be declared wearing first time braces Wink
Report TINnotaTON December 3, 2018 4:57 PM GMT
FRODON is actually entered in this sunday's peterborough chase at huntingdon and according to nicholls is 100% more likely to run in that than the aintree race due to him running off top weight...
Report sintonian December 9, 2018 6:37 AM GMT
Was really surprised by the handicappers leniency even allowing for the carnage behind. He looked to have plenty in the tank up the run in.

Theatre Territory looks a nuge player now she has missed Aintree. But is obviously still a maiden!

Rather Be was cantering and still looks well handicapped off 147.

Usually this version is ''easier'' to win than the November race and I think the race is going to revolve around these 3.
Report SOULDANCER December 9, 2018 9:33 AM GMT
HAPPY DIVA 14-1 e.w. 1st 4, looks value. Was going just as well as Rather Be when they were brought down, though, that one could come on for seasonal debut. Happy Diva will be without 3lb claimer Richard Patrick, broken collarbone, not ideal.  Will be betting BARON ALCO to win nearer the day. At the moment I'm thinking.

1st BARON ALCO
2nd HAPPY DIVA
3rd RATHER BE
Report ReaseHeath December 9, 2018 11:45 AM GMT
Theatre Territory also has an entry in the 3m 2f Grade 3 handicap chase at Cheltenham next Friday..
Report brendrew December 9, 2018 6:39 PM GMT
no reason to desert first 4 from paddy power
Report pmt December 10, 2018 3:56 PM GMT
Looks like they will run Frodon and T T is out. We plan to run Casse Tete too as he is working the house down at home.It wasnt his fault when he slipped going into the 7th at ascot and unshipped Jamie. he ran two more circuits after that and seems to have benefitted from the outing.
Report SOULDANCER December 10, 2018 4:22 PM GMT
Looking good for Baron Alco now, Frodon stays in and Happy Diva is out. This race looking a lot easier now.
Report pmt December 10, 2018 4:47 PM GMT
On a strict line through Mr Whitaker, the favourite , Rather Be is 4lbs well in with Baron Alco but we hope we have improved enough to stay ahead. As long as Frodon stays in we still fancy his chances but if he has to shoulder 11st 12 he would be vulnerable.
Report saxon farm December 10, 2018 7:47 PM GMT
pmt
Thanks for the latest news & all the best for Saturday. I’ll be there with ex forumite FLYINGBOLT.
Report The Dragon December 12, 2018 4:18 PM GMT
all the money is for rather be

had a punt on foxtail hill at 50 on here
Report unclepuncle December 12, 2018 10:44 PM GMT
Guitar Pete @ 10/1 for me. Similar campaign to last year, won’t mind the rain that is forecast and his lightweight might be a big help.
Report SOULDANCER December 13, 2018 8:52 AM GMT
Currently Ground

Good, good to soft in places.

Looking at forecast only 6 hours light rain before race, that's coming day of race. If that is right would that be enough to change going?

They wouldn't water tonight, would they?
Report sageform December 13, 2018 2:33 PM GMT
I have to stick with Frodon. Much better off with Baron Alco and loves the track.
Report metro john December 14, 2018 2:57 PM GMT
I have some reservations about jumping, but Full Glass got the ability and could just be well handicapped, I like the place chances if jumping holds up.
Report custardcream64 December 15, 2018 12:38 PM GMT
Now the rain has come I'm going to have a splash of ginge e/w.
Report sageform December 15, 2018 2:02 PM GMT
Magic stuff. 13/1 after deductions was just about the best bet of the season! Fantastic horse, fantastic ride.
Report pmt December 15, 2018 9:24 PM GMT
all credit to the winner, what a horse to win off 164 burning off all opposition,has to be rated 170+ and  must be worth a punt in the Ryanair.Baron Alco wasn't able to live with him, we are going to 3 miles in the Racing Post chase next at kempton in February.
Report saxon farm December 15, 2018 11:05 PM GMT
Good effort pmt.  Love to see Baron Alco in The Topham.  All the best.
Report SOULDANCER December 16, 2018 9:16 AM GMT
Well done Sageform. Another thriller, love seeing them win from the front.

Frodon, Bryony said he's not that big. He looks a real powerhouse though, whereas Baron Alco seems lighter framed.

Baron Alco ran his heart out again, so genuine. Going up to 3 mile and Racing Post Chase looks shrewd, could make the difference.
Report sageform December 16, 2018 1:41 PM GMT
my e/w saver was Mr Medic who looked sure to place at the third last but then was disappointing going up that hill. Well worth another try on a flat track.
Report Facts December 17, 2018 2:26 AM GMT
Mr Medic was really travelling, then ploughed through the 3rd last . It was a bad and significant mistake - and that's where he lost all chance of winning. I think he could have had a hand in the finish had he jumped cleanly..
Report sageform December 17, 2018 9:20 AM GMT
Still think that Mr Medic could have run on again to finish third after the error but he didn't run up the hill at all.
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