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maleuk01.
20 Apr 18 15:10
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Date Joined: 16 Jun 05
| Topic/replies: 4,852 | Blogger: maleuk01.'s blog
impressive debut

surely 20/1 ew represents good value for the oaks

further they went the better she looked.

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Replies: 65
By:
Hibore
When: 20 Apr 18 15:44
You've a fan here also on bigtime at 20/1.

Hopefully go to York next.

Let's hope we have a live one here :-)
By:
sageform
When: 20 Apr 18 15:58
20 did, 11 or less does not with doubts about her target, the going, jockey preference etc. etc. I will wait until I see the overnight decs thanks.
By:
Hibore
When: 06 May 18 16:00
Not many Oaks contenders in the 1000G so chance for La ti day to put a pointer down today.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 06 May 18 16:33
Wild Illusion at 16/1 is very overpriced for the Oaks. She ran a nice race in the Guineas for a filly crying out for 12 furlongs.
By:
maleuk01.
When: 06 May 18 16:50
extra 2F right up her street.

Beat some decent horses there.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 May 18 17:23
I'm totally baffled by the 4/1 favouritism allotted to Lah Ti Dar for the Epsom Oaks; she took a while to beat these non-entities, and only won a Listed race today (not Group). I believe some of the fillies that contested/missed the 1000G today eg Happily, September, Wild Illusion, etc, can easily better her performance and usurped her at the top of this market in due course.
By:
maleuk01.
When: 06 May 18 17:43
I think its the sxtra 2F which people/bookies seeing as more improvement, finishing the races well. They where also well strung out today.

Also ran ok on a track with undulations, quicker going, and was only her 2nd run so further improvement likely.

Though 4/1 does seem a bit short now.
By:
maleuk01.
When: 06 May 18 17:53
Interesting that out of the £37k matched on Oaks here £12k is on her.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 May 18 20:32
Apparently the Irish 1000G will probably be the next race for Happily, according to AOB, thus almost eliminating her participation here as the two races is just one week apart.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 06 May 18 22:11
Don't fancy Happily over 12 furlongs on pedigree. I think 10 furlongs will be her optimum trip.
By:
Hibore
When: 07 May 18 16:52
4/1 is still value if  she gets there in one piece. Frankie really rates her and the extra 2 furlongs is what she is crying out for now. Really hard to find anything that might take her on at the moment or bred to improve over the longer distance.

Fast ground and getting unbalanced on the track seem bigger dangers to me.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 07 May 18 17:26
September and Wild Illusion are more stoutly bred and have superior proven form and are much bigger prices. Lah Ti Dar looks a lovely filly for the future, but my concern would be that she may not be forward enough to win the Oaks having made her debut just a few weeks before.

Like Cracksman in the Derby last year she may need more time to mature and show her best.
By:
impossible123
When: 07 May 18 19:55
With September not guaranteed to make the gig, according to AOB's latest, this could be handed to Lah Ti Dar. However, AOB has Flattering - a 10l winner at Cork - for the Lingfield Trial; she is only 11/8 with 'paddies'.

I'd like to see Wild Illusion here too.
By:
Hibore
When: 07 May 18 20:50
Don’t see how September and Wild Illusion are more stoutly bred. On all evidence So Mi Dar’s sister has pretty much the ideal pedigree.

Wild Illusion may come on for the longer trip but doesn’t look anything special. Highgarden looked in need of the run at Sandown last week and may come on significantly in one of the trials.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 07 May 18 21:37
Lah ti Dar and Wild Illusion are both by the miler Dubawi. The former comes from a middle distance family whereas the latter's dam was a 2 mile stayer. September also comes from a middle distance family and her sire Deep Impact is a strong influence for stamina as he himself was not only a top class middle distance horse, he was also a Group 1 winner at up to 2 miles.

In my view, they are without doubt more stoutly bred and will relish the step up to 12 furlongs having already shown Group 1 form over a shorter trip. So your statement that it's hard to find anything bred to improve over the longer trip is simply incorrect.
By:
Hibore
When: 07 May 18 22:50
I was talking about being bred to win the Oaks. Being out of a 2 mile winner has no relevance if you show mediocre form over 12 furlongs. The current favourite has the best proven form and stamina of any of the contenders in the race, bred to win a classic and Gosden obviously knows the time of day. She’s a huge horse and doubt we’ll see her over 10 furlongs again.

All the other horses have questions to prove...maybe something will stake a claim at Chester, Lingfield or York.

I’m probably going to have a small e/w Wild Illusion ante post as I think the race will cut up and may only have 5-7 runners. However, I can see her going to France if they think La ti Dar is too strong in the Oaks.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 07 May 18 23:15
Being out of a 2 mile winner has no relevance if you show mediocre form over 12 furlongs. The current favourite has the best proven form and stamina of any of the contenders in the race


She has won a maiden and a listed race. The other two have Group 1 form over a mile and have more stamina in their pedigrees than the current Fav and will appreciate the step up to 12 furlongs.

Are you suggesting that they will not show further improvement when stepping up in trip given their pedigrees?
By:
charwell.
When: 08 May 18 01:24
You can argue about pedigree until the cows come home; but to the naked eye it is obvious Lah Ti Dar will improve again over the Oaks trip. She has a good cruising speed and takes time to pick up. Over both 12f runs she has powered away in the last half furlong.

She looks a bit special to me and LTO had them strung like washing behind over an inadequate trip, and on ground that is a bit lively for her. Epsom water well so over 14f she should be able to have enough time to get into gear and rout the field.

You are taking a lot on trust to suggest going from 8 to 12f is a given for the guineas runners regardless of the pedigree.
By:
charwell.
When: 08 May 18 01:27
Sorry over both 10f runs I meant to say.....
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 08 May 18 01:57
No doubt she will improve stepping up in trip and she will have every chance in the Oaks if she continues to improve and is forward enough in her progression on the big day. My issue is with the suggestion that others in the field won't also improve stepping up in trip when it is obvious to anyone who studies pedigrees that they will.
By:
Sankara
When: 08 May 18 07:40
Best proven form? ROFL.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 May 18 08:34
I'd have a placed runner in a Gp 1 mile race over a winner of a 10f race with no Gp 3/Listed winner in it if the horse has credible pedigree eg Diminuendo who finished 3rd in a similar contest to Wild Illusion and won the Oaks. I understand LTD was finishing her latest race better than the others but that could mean the others did not see out the trip as well as she did.

The price of LTD is pants solely because of her trainer, and not the quality of the opponents she'd beaten. As such, I'd rather have Saxon Warrior at 11/10 for the Derby than LTD at 4/1 for the Oaks.
By:
Hibore
When: 08 May 18 09:02
The current favourite has the best proven form and stamina of any of the contenders in the race.

The race is the Oaks - 1 1/2 miles...not 1 mile.

Proven form in relation to staying 1 mile 1/2.. 1mile 1/4 at Newmarket.

Looked well, took keen hold, tracked leaders until went 2nd halfway, ridden 3f out, driven and upsides over 1f out, ran green and edged right 1f out, soon led, drew clear inside final furlong, eased near finish.

It's not rocket science. She is the only horse that proves she stays. The winners of the other trials could remove her from favouritism but if the race was today and you had the chance to own one of the horses in the race (forget odds) the safest option for 6/10 people would be LTD. That is why she is favourite.

Taghrooda followed a similar path for Gosden a few years ago (was rated 89 when she won the Pretty Polly which was over 20lb off Group 1 winners) . I'm sure you were on here dismissing her chances as well.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 May 18 09:55
I think LTD is the present fav solely for two reasons eg her trainer and uncertainty about key participants eg September, Wild Illusion, Magical and Happily; she's proven she stays 10f, not 12f (yet).

Flattering won a 10f race by a wide margin despite showing greenness, and her trainer has pitched her in the Lingfield Oaks Trial (why?) which she's only 11/8, but 25/1 for this, and LTD is 4/1 only. Legatissimo won the 1000G; she also won a 9.5f Listed race going away prior yet was outstayed in the Oaks; she only started at 5/2 for this race.

On the other LTD is 4/1 presently with no concrete form eg only won a Listed race (not Lingfield or Musidora Oaks Trial); none of the beaten horses won a Group or Listed race. LTD cannot be compared to So Mi Dar either who beat the colts in a Derby Trial and the Musidora.

Tagroodha was something special, and LTD could one day be as good as her but needs to improved monumentally to do so.
By:
Hibore
When: 12 May 18 09:28
Another shocking Oaks trial today, surely Gosden and AOB are trying to get a soft Listed race for some of their lesser lights.
Musidora on Weds looks a weak affair as well but could point to a possible French Oaks contender. Highgarden the fav looked short of pace at Sandown and doubt they will take on LTD in the Oaks.

September is friendless in the market and looks increasingly unlikely to turn up. So currently the only expected runners are -

LTD
Wild Illusion
Magic Wand
Forever Together

Can see a field of 6 or 7 at this stage on 1st June.

Our friends at Betbrighht are still 4/1 LTD but I was only offered £5 at that price and 5/2 anything above that...shocking. I can see LTD being 9/4 by next Weds evening.
By:
impossible123
When: 12 May 18 17:34
The Oaks picture is looking increasingly sub-standard with no outstanding performers from the Trials at Chester midweek and Lingfield today; the present fav has no Group status credential either. Unless Wild Illusion and September show up, and with Happily (Irish 1000G) and Magical (1000G Trial tomorrow), this could fall nicely for LTD, I think. But I still cannot have LTD at 3/1 despite backing her sister So Mi Dar against Minding (yes Minding) in 2016 Oaks.

After last year with Enable beating Rhododendron this year's renewal could turn out to be a damp squib unless September and Wild Illusion show up.
By:
Hibore
When: 12 May 18 18:37
Dreadful trials this week. That is why the Flattering was 6/4 for the pointless Lingfield Oaks trial and 25/1 for the race as you pointed out a few days ago.

Totally agree the race could be a damp squib with only a few runners, but it’s mainly because of the poor quality of this years 3 year olds. Must be the the worst for a number of years. Group 1 winners from last year would struggle to win G2 and even G3 in the last 5 years.

September is above average but is still not a standout performer. She should have beaten Laurens at Newmarket (cost me a few quid as well) but that is good but not outstanding form. Wild Illusion could improve for the step up in trip but didn’t look like she was crying out for another 1/2 mile in the guineas. I’ve backed her at 12/1 e/w as I think the boys in blue will run her whatever.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 12 May 18 23:58

Jack Bauer '24' 07 May 18 17:26 Joined: 30 May 02 | Topic/replies: 6,420 | Blogger: Jack Bauer '24''s blog
September and Wild Illusion are more stoutly bred and have superior proven form and are much bigger prices. Lah Ti Dar looks a lovely filly for the future, but my concern would be that she may not be forward enough to win the Oaks having made her debut just a few weeks before.

Like Cracksman in the Derby last year she may need more time to mature and show her best.


What you say has so truth in it. so mi dar has never been tried beyond 10 furlongs for example although she surely would have been if she hadn't been injured before the oaks. dar ri me was a 10 furlong/12 furlong horse. dubawi was a miler/10 furlong horse so there is some stamina doubt there.

on the other hand assuming that the other fillies will improve past her when they step up to 1 mile four seems a trifle optimistic. how quick you are seems to me more relevant than being a certain stayer. Countless times i've backed "certain stayers" in the belief that they'll outstay their otherwise quicker rivals and curse them when they turn out to be hopelessly slow.

in my view the oaks is still wide open. I'd like to see the stoute filly crystal hope run it it as she could be a player.

A lot of it comes down to common sense/feel and your own visual impression. another gosden horse, golden horn also looked an unlikely stayer on pedigree. And yet if you watched his races before the derby he always shaped like a stayer. the way lah ti dar runs, staying very well at the end of her races, marks her down for me as a filly likely to improve for the step up in trip, not get worse. I'd probably be more concerned if she was cantering all over them at the mile pole and just scrambled home.

whether she's good enough, i'm less sure about. clearly although she's done well so far she's nowhere near the golden horn league.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 13 May 18 17:07
The fact she is trained by Gosden and ridden by Dettori are two massive bonuses imo.
Think she will be hard to beat but having not heeded the advice from the OP (great shout maleuk01) I can't back her now.Plain

Of the rest Forever Together @ 16/1 looks the e/w value to me.
By:
sageform
When: 14 May 18 08:34
3/1 or so is no value at all when the horse might not run but I think that the plan so far by Gosden screams Oaks winner. Nice maiden at Newbury and Pretty Polly (listed) may not be Group races but the manner of her wins were very impressive. The major doubt for me is the track. Both of her runs were on lovely flat straights (apart from the Newmarket dip) and Epsom is a very different test for what looks a long striding filly who has yet to have to weave through a big field. Frankie may need to be prominent and then come wide in the straight unless she is already in front round Tattenham corner. I have no problem with the pedigree with Singspiel in there.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 14 May 18 09:59
September looking like a definite non runner - was macthed at 100 just now, and still plenty of 25/1 available.SadSad
By:
Paterson92
When: 14 May 18 10:05
Bill Esdaile on Twitter:

September won’t make the Oaks @EpsomRacecourse ... ‘’she’s only trotting and we’ve run out of time” says Aidan O’Brien
By:
Paterson92
When: 14 May 18 10:06
Bill Esdaile also on Twitter:

“Happily will be aimed at the Irish 1000 Guineas with the Investec Oaks lovely to come too soon”
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 18 10:18
that's sunk a lot of ante-post betting slips with september.

she's small and there must be a possibility that they think she hasn't trained on.

retirement and an early visit to the paddocks beckons.
By:
Hibore
When: 14 May 18 22:50
Probably LW.

This is now looking a straight fight between LTD at and Wild Illusion in my book. Chester form is well behind that of WI at best and market reflects that.

Let’s hope only 3 horses run
By:
Hibore
When: 15 May 18 06:21
For my bets * :-)
By:
jerseyboy
When: 16 May 18 09:07
Possible Oaks winner out today   JG  HORSE  will be interesting if wins well, odds will shorten rapidly.  BUT if beat non runner I presume,  be lucky.
By:
charwell.
When: 17 May 18 12:10
What horse is that as the maidens at Salisbury he has 2 but they are not entered in the Oaks?
By:
R.O.Gibraltar
When: 17 May 18 14:20
Think he was on about Highgarden yesterday at York.
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