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betilyerded
27 Aug 17 12:38
Joined:
Date Joined: 03 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 817 | Blogger: betilyerded's blog
Three weeks to the big day, tickets arrived last week, so time to try and pick a couple out at decent prices.
Have had quite a bit of good luck in the race over the years, primarily when the ground is riding on the soft side as I feel its a much easier race to suss when thats the case (which isnt always the case).

If this years renewal is run on good ground or faster then i feel there is a host of potential winners and far too many to mention. In the hope we get a wet september then for me theres one or two who at this stage are overpriced and value for money.

First up, and my main bet thus far, is Michael Dodds Get Knotted, who is best priced 40-1 at Bet365. He's well exposed but that doesnt put me off in the slightest as I feel he has improved as a 5yo and is definitely being aimed at the race. He was just touched off in the Silver Cup last year by an in-form Roudee and Im hoping history repeats itself when Highland Colori went one better the following year after being touched off in the same race, ironically enough by one of Michael Dodds horses.
he was impressive when landing the same York race as he did last year, after which Dodds said he would have one more run before, which he did at Donny last week where he travelled really smoothly into contention but hasnt got a turn of foot on quicker ground and finished a close 4th.

Granted soft ground I think he is a real player with a nice blend of speed and stamina and should sneak in off that rating. The upside is if the ground is good then more of the higher rated horses will take their chance and he may not get it so stakes will be refunded.

Ive a few others in mind which I'll put up sometime later.
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Report RozelKid August 31, 2017 10:39 PM BST
Im interested in the Brian Smart trained Nameitwhatyoulike 40/1 - hard race.
Report Facts September 1, 2017 4:26 AM BST
Initial look - very keen on Scorching Light.
Report SOULDANCER September 1, 2017 9:12 AM BST
Scorching Heat won't make the cut but is being aimed at race. Trainer says will run in consolation race if not getting in big one.
Report Facts September 1, 2017 9:17 AM BST
Ok, thanks.
Report zilzal1 September 1, 2017 7:53 PM BST
Hoping the ground is good or faster, feel that Mr Lupton has a touch of the "Harmonic Ways to him" twice he's had pace in a big field hcap and twice he's won, last year giving weight and a beating to the Stewards Cup winner and this year on the Rowley Mile course under Mosse
Hope Conor's taking the claim off, 25-1
Report dunlaying September 2, 2017 10:09 AM BST
Donjuan Triomphant is not 100% reliable but when on song he is good. A competent 5lb claimer on him would give him a sound e/w chance at the weights.
Report dunlaying September 2, 2017 2:50 PM BST
Furthermore he had Autumn form as a 2-y-o . He is a proven group performer and will go on anything but fast ground . He is lightly raced this season and his run in the Stewards was not too bad.
Report betilyerded September 3, 2017 4:02 PM BST
Dunlaying. Donjuan Triumphant is defo on my shortlist. Best priced 25-1 and lots of positives about him.
Would be very surprised if he wasnt being aimed at the race given the Baldings record in the race and really liked his run in the Stewards Cup after quite a break.
Report betilyerded September 7, 2017 5:05 PM BST
Luckily noticed DT was running in a conditions event at Haydock today so took the 25-1 in expectation of a decent run and happy I did so.

Balding also won a conditions event with Higland Colori prior to winning the race then offset the 5lb penalty by using apprentice Oisin Murphy. Wonder if stable apprentice Josh Bryan will get the shout this time?
Report betilyerded September 7, 2017 7:15 PM BST
Taken from RP website:
Star performer: Donjuan Triumphant (4.00) ended his two-year-losing run and now heads for the Ayr Gold Cup.

Hope so. Btw, in Baldings quarterly magazine they were really pleased with his run after a break in the Stewards Cup. He apparently missed the kick and was one of the best home drawn high in 9th. All things considered I think he is a big player.

As an aside, Get Knotted declared to run Saturday at Ascot. Surprising as the plan was to go straight to Ayr after one run but I suppose they arnt guaranteed his favored easy conditions so taking their chances. 40-1 went yesterday.
Report betilyerded September 10, 2017 10:38 AM BST
Laboured effort by Get Knotted yesterday given ideal conditions, confidence in the horse dented massively after that.

Soft conditions look guaranteed given current forecast for continued unsettled weather - Ayr must be heavy just now.

Still think it might be worth looking at something exposed but with form in top 7f/mile handicaps who enjoys give underfoot. Withernsea perhaps?
Report SOULDANCER September 10, 2017 10:50 AM BST
Withernsea, wouldn't think 6f would suit.
Report betilyerded September 10, 2017 4:44 PM BST
Does enjoy plenty of give underfoot though and a heavy ground gold cup will bring stamina into play. Captain Ramius and Redford, for instance, had plenty of winning form in big 7f/8f handicaps and had never even won over 6f. Regal Parade hadnt even run over 6f.
Horses dropping back in trip are the sort I look for in this race when its soft or heavy, which is looking likely.
Report liberator of the oppressed September 10, 2017 6:47 PM BST
Betilyerded .. I've had a sneaky £40EW at 40/1 i'd like to think was now primed for a ding dong run will be thereabouts if it turns up on the day OI OI.
Report betilyerded September 13, 2017 9:28 PM BST
Bit worried by the forecast tbh. Very soft just now but other than a few showers tomorrow its a largely dry forecast throughout next week so very feasibly could be run on goodish ground.
That wouldnt hinder Donjuan as he appears to go on all surfaces bar G/F but think Get Knotted would need it just to slow the others up a bit and certainly wouldnt consider Withernsea on anything but soft.
Could bring the proper 6f sprinters into the equation so need to take another good look.
Report dunlaying September 14, 2017 10:43 AM BST
Another that is worth a look is Eastern Impact. Re-present this fellow and you get some interesting outcomes.
Report betilyerded September 14, 2017 4:53 PM BST
Eastern Impact runs in the Portland saturday. Really think his very best form is on good, good to firm ground so need to do a weather watch on him but wasnt disgraced in the Wokingham at all.
Report betilyerded September 16, 2017 2:42 PM BST
Forecast has changed and it now looks likely that there will be rain around Thursday-Saturday after a drying few days so difficult to judge what the conditions will be.

Have to be interested in Upstaging after Spring Loaded was another to frank the Windsor form in which he was second (after his 3rd in the Stewards Cup). An amazing 5 of the 10 to have run in that race have won again (the winner, Ice Age, twice) with the remainders being 2nd 3rd or 4th nto.

Paul Cole hasnt had a runner at Ayr for donkeys years but in the past 20 years has had one runner in the Gold Cup (Andronikos 5th) and one in the Silver Cup (Eisteddfod 1st).

Has to be considered if he shows up, given all ground comes alike to him and the above comments and is my 3rd bet at 25-1 and keep a weather watch for Withernsea.
Report unclepuncle September 18, 2017 2:55 PM BST
Aeolus @ 25/1 for me.
Report harry callaghan September 18, 2017 5:15 PM BST
i cannot believe balding and connections blew donjuan's mark for such a small race, that 5lbs means he will have to run a career best just to get in the mix, a real shame tbh
Report betilyerded September 18, 2017 8:36 PM BST
Agree above comment. PJ McDonald booked again which im surprised about as I thought he would claim off him.

P****d off Upstaging isnt running, was really warming to his chance. Oh well, the perils of antepost betting!
Report harry callaghan September 18, 2017 8:46 PM BST
can't say i do much ante post tbh if any at all now...still good race in prospect will have a look after they are declared and see about the draw and ground...shame about donjuan i quite liked him but am gutted they have blown the mark, so i'll have to move on
Report Facts September 19, 2017 1:31 AM BST
I like backing fancied  last out sprint winners, running with a penalty.
Report betilyerded September 19, 2017 5:06 PM BST
The other way of looking at it is that they still think he is well handicapped without claiming off him. Jockey bookings can still change and as yet apprentices like Cal Rodriquez or josh Bryan arnt booked to ride.
Apparently band of heavy rain coming in tomorrow through into Thursday morning so looking likely to be soft.
Report liberator of the oppressed September 19, 2017 5:37 PM BST
Will Get Knotted get in?
Report IrisDeBalme September 19, 2017 6:01 PM BST
I did like Johnny Barnes before he won last time out ... was just out the places last year but still his run was respectable.. . Think the draw will be key for him...14/1 ... think he will be favourite

I also like GROWL 16/1 ... forgive him for his last run think the ground was too deep... few runs ago ran really well... was second in the race last year... only negative Graham Lee on board... but this was a promising horse last season.

Good luck.
Report harry callaghan September 19, 2017 7:42 PM BST
Facts
19 Sep 17 01:31
Joined: 05 May 03
| Topic/replies: 25,310 | Blogger: Facts's blog
I like backing fancied  last out sprint winners, running with a penalty.



i don't mind them either facts if i believe they still have something in hand from the new mark, this horse will have to run a career high to win here now off 109...no doubt he will shove it up me as i did like him off the other mark but imo he doesn't have enough in hand off 109 i could be wrong of course and there is good money for the horse no doubt with the weather forecast in mind...

do you think he has enough in hand then off this mark or were you just wanting to tell me you like backing horses under a penalty?????
Report the bloob September 19, 2017 10:24 PM BST
Aeolus at 25/1 would be my pick at this stage, won't mind it on the soft side
Report Facts September 19, 2017 11:37 PM BST
Harry callaghan

Last time our sprint winners that carry a penalty next time ( and are fancied), figure strongly in my betting methodology.

I have backed the horse at 16/1.
Report harry callaghan September 20, 2017 1:47 PM BST
that's fair enough facts... i really liked him for this and no doubt his last run will put him spot on for the race, however i didn't think he had enough in hand with the penalty so doubt very much that i will be playing him
Report betilyerded September 21, 2017 7:07 AM BST
Liberator

Would imagine Get Knotted will definitely get in as at 3 or 4 will come out due to the ground.

Withernsea 50/50 to run according to Fahey, which in his speak means its been laid out to win the race Laugh
Report lead on September 21, 2017 8:33 AM BST
The way the weather's going we'll be lucky to have a race at all....7f heavy ground horse required with a low weight and claimer...Stamp Hill for me
Report unclepuncle September 21, 2017 8:45 AM BST
Gone in again on Aeolus @ 25/1 - just hope the draw doesn't scupper him.
Report betilyerded September 21, 2017 6:56 PM BST
Well i think we can safely say the ground will be on the easy side!!

TBH, never saw Stamp Hill getting in off that rating - no wonder Hannigan has jumped ship. Could be a threat to all the way he traveled at Ascot. Has got a heavy ground win to his name too. Looks like its changed hands too unless the RP has cocked up its colours.

Ended up backing Withernsea e/w at 33-1 before decs time, so thats my 3 for the race - Withernsea, Get Knotted and Donjuan T. Its now in the lap of the gods.Good luck all!!
Report morpteh mackem September 21, 2017 7:08 PM BST
could the winner of gold and silver cup have same draw number ?Mischief
Report 1st time poster September 21, 2017 7:56 PM BST
I,m on withernsea and get knotted so that's the end of that,LOL
Report unclepuncle September 21, 2017 7:59 PM BST
Friday abandoned and with rain forecast tomorrow morning there is no way it will be raceable if they inspect at lunchtime as they are suggesting.
Given how far away it is from Newmarket and Lambourn I don't see how they can wait until Saturday morning to make the call so it's looking a bit bleak.Sad
Report betilyerded September 21, 2017 9:07 PM BST
F**k, f**k, f**ckety, F**K!!!!!!

Got our tickets, paid for the hotel, booked my favourite chineese.

Pleeeeeease let it go ahead!!!!
Report harry callaghan September 21, 2017 9:20 PM BST
hours of research down the kermit
Report betilyerded September 21, 2017 9:36 PM BST
Apart from a few showers around the time of inspection it is actually a decent forecast between now and race time. Just depend show quickly it drains, which historically is quite quick. We shall see...
Report Facts September 21, 2017 9:47 PM BST
Really hope it's on .
Report harry callaghan September 21, 2017 9:49 PM BST
be nice if it is on, although it's been a brutal handicap to fathom
Report the bloob September 21, 2017 11:54 PM BST
if low draw is favourable then I think Terentum Star is worth a bet, 25/1 in a place and 20/1 with enhanced places. Soft ground not a problem and trainer has excellent record in race
Report morpteh mackem September 22, 2017 9:00 AM BST
abandoned. end of thread..........Sad
Report betilyerded September 22, 2017 9:58 AM BST
Er. I started the thread so I will end it thank you.

BASTARDO!!!!!!
Report Facts September 22, 2017 10:12 AM BST
Very disappointing Sad
Report morpteh mackem September 22, 2017 10:12 AM BST
Laugh
Report unclepuncle September 22, 2017 11:05 AM BST
Will be the first time I haven't lost on the race in about a decade so it's not all bad.Devil
Report morpteh mackem September 22, 2017 11:17 AM BST
gutted as i had the winner of silver cup tooSad
Report betilyerded September 22, 2017 4:55 PM BST
Just as an aside - and I should know the answer to this given how long ive been betting - if the meeting doesnt take place are all antepost bets returned, regardless of when they were struck. For instance I backed Upstaging £25 e/w at the weekend for the gold Cup, he wasnt declared on Monday and the bet is shown as settled with 0 returns. Surely I get my money back if the event doenst even take place, don't I? Or maybe i will have to wait until after tomorrow to get a refund. Anyone?
Report harry callaghan September 22, 2017 5:19 PM BST
you will definitely get your money back on all wagering betilyerded
Report harry callaghan September 22, 2017 5:21 PM BST
i don't know when though, you would have to check that with your bookmaker
Report betilyerded September 22, 2017 5:35 PM BST
Cheers. I thought about it afterwards and came to the conclusion all bets have to be returned otherwise they make a lot of cash with no payouts!
Must have to wait until after the race day (Bit365 btw)
Report betilyerded September 23, 2017 7:19 AM BST
All bets refunded. I'll be starting the 2018 thread shortly....
Report Facts October 1, 2017 5:03 PM BST
Harry callaghan

Hope you were on the ' re run' of the Ayr Gold Cup at Haydock on Sat !Happy
Report harry callaghan October 1, 2017 5:16 PM BST
no didn't play the race even with a lot less runners...a good performance to win off that mark, albeit a depleted field

you have won plenty facts well done
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