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johnnyrant
01 Aug 17 19:15
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Date Joined: 14 Feb 07
| Topic/replies: 23,519 | Blogger: johnnyrant's blog
Lots of excitement surrounding Stradivarius today but I've long thought Coronet has a stronger profile for this race. Got both at nice double figure odds AP but still favour the filly - think she has a bit more speed.

Murtagh summed it up today - they wanted him to join in the chorus of Stradivarius the one for the Leger but he was adament Johnny G has better back at the yard.

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Replies: 56
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Aug 17 19:47
Stradivarius was impressive today nonetheless, I think the winner will probably come from the Epsom Derby participants myself. But he might not run in the Great Voltigeur.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 01 Aug 17 20:23
Presumably Murtagh was referring to Cracksman?
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 02 Aug 17 13:54
Cracksman is n't entered - Gosden has consistently said he'll be roughed off for the season after the Great Voltigeur and it looks like he's sticking to that.

Gosden has seven entries (if I've counted correctly!) - to me Khalidi and Coronet look to be the pick of them outside of Stradavarius...
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Aug 17 20:09
Good to hear AOB mentioned Venice Beach, Capri and Spanish Steps as 3 or 4 possibles for the Great Voltigeur.
By:
impossible123
When: 23 Aug 17 20:03
Venice Beach was no match for Cracksman (seemed vastly improved since the Epsom Derby) in the Voltigeur nonetheless he still ran a good trial for this race, I believe; there was 6l between himself and Mirage Dancer (3rd), and was staying on at the finish. Unless connections of Cracksman have a change of heart, and with doubts about the stamina of Capri and Crystal Ocean (the front two in the betting), Venice Beach at 20/1 might not seem a bad bet if he is definitely here bound, I think.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 23 Aug 17 22:01
20/1 is decent value, he'll love the trip, imo.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 24 Aug 17 09:56
impossible123 23 Aug 17 21:03
Venice Beach at 20/1 might not seem a bad bet if he is definitely here bound, I think.


So for the record have you backed him at 20/1 or are you waiting until he is confirmed - when of course he will likely be a shorter price.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 24 Aug 17 14:53
Coronet looking a decent shout by johnnyrant - perfectly acceptable trial run there

no bet for me yet...
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Sep 17 13:36
I'm finding it difficult to fathom why is Crystal Ocean fav. What has he beaten,...Khalidi in the soft? He was beaten several times by Permian. Could his standing at the head of the betting market be trainer related? If memory serves, I thought Moore was not entirely sure or enthusiastic he was a Leger horse either post his latest win.

Similarly, Capri the 2nd fav. The general consensus was he was gifted the Irish Derby by careful race planning/riding by his stablemates. He had every chance in the Epsom Derby but faded to finish 6th; he also appeared not to stay in the Derrinstown despite tracking the winner in 2nd place eventually finishing 3rd. And, he also just held on in the Irish Derby after having 1st run on those behind him.

Defoe and Stradivarius: The former beating handicappers and only won a Gp3; the latter managed to beat Big Orange the winner of the Goodwood Cup.

A shame no Cracksman otherwise he'd be odds-on. As such, a very open race next saturday, and probably a big priced winner too.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 07 Sep 17 06:02
Imp .. say this every year 5 - 10 to post 4 will look like staying 2 out three will go on and Strad will outstay them EASILY if in continues to rain. Is a most odd race particularly if they go a reasonable clip from the start.
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Sep 17 09:07
Indeed, Stradivarius is the one I respect most especially if the ground is soft as it could mean stamina is of the essence. But I think there will be at least 10 runners - it is so open - with AOB responsible for at least 3. I do not think it is a given Moore will choose Capri given the promising run of Venice Beach in France and against Cracksman - he was also running on at the finish, if the ground is good or better.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 Sep 17 11:46
Rekindling and Venice Beach have not been declared for the Irish St Leger this sunday. Does that mean they will run in the English equivalent next saturday, all things being equal? Let's hope so as I believe both can take a hand in the finish esp if the ground is good or better, and both will stay the trip too.
By:
johnnyrant
When: 08 Sep 17 18:56
I'm 99% certain Stradivarius doesn't want soft ground. He got away with it at Goodwood cos it was the slow side of good on the opening day, & with the weight-for-age scale, it was shrewd placement by Johnny G.

Ground is, as always, going to be key. Currently forecast to be a mostly dry week at Donny. I still prefer Coronet of Gosden's contenders - crying out for this trip imho & has more class than the colt imho. I rate Crystal Ocean's chance, & think he's the main danger, assuming the race is run on good ground. Stoute has a good record in the Leger & I think he'll probably stay.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 Sep 17 20:26
Crystal Ocean, Defoe and Stradivarius are way too short for me on what they have achieved thus cannot have them on my book; Coronet ran well behind Enable but not for me either.

However, I do hope the present weather holds for next week too, and Venice Beach and Rekindling run. After last year with Idaho (10/1) I could do with a change of luck!
By:
keeping silent
When: 09 Sep 17 12:31
Raheen House ew for me .
By:
the bloob
When: 10 Sep 17 16:41
I can't have Coronet at all in this race, I think Stradivarius is by far Gosden's best chance. The form from Goodwood is obviously very impressive on paper but the 13lb allowance over longer trips is massive, over 2 miles it equates to about 1lb per length so that's 13 lengths. I think 5/1 is fair, and Gosden's recent record in the race is good

at the current prices I like the look of Venice Beach, looks a stayer and would have been a very impressive winner of the Voltigeur without the presence of Cracksman. Take Cracksman out of that race and Venice would be half the price now
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Sep 17 17:06
Venice Beach will be 1/2 present price when he is confirmed, I believe; the run of Rekindling behind OoSg in the Irish St Leger Trial has just been boosted with OoSG winning by a mile today.
By:
the bloob
When: 10 Sep 17 17:22
ok, I know they are a very hard bunch to predict but surely it is their 2nd best chance in the race? I would have thought Capri, Venice Beach and a pacemaker would be their best option
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 10 Sep 17 17:59
bloob .. start drawing your money out and maxing out the cards unlikley but could end up like a bog drove through Donnie earlier today was raining understand is still raining and whilst is a week to go and the course drains particularly well you will need to stay if things stay like this and we know this oss does and does that very well.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 11 Sep 17 10:05
@impossible, hoping that to be the case with Venice Beach! obviously being beaten fair and square by Cracksman but he does look more of a stayer, plus if it does rain i think that might help him. I have him @25s. They normally go with more than one even if it appears Capri is number 1.
By:
dyno-layer
When: 11 Sep 17 10:33
the end of the week looks predominantly dry and breezy.. It will dry out i suspect back to good decent ground.
By:
dyno-layer
When: 11 Sep 17 10:34
Monday 11 September—Sunday 17 September
Cool, showery and often windy. Drier later.
The week begins with a yellow warning in place for southwest England and South Wales for strong westerly winds. But all parts will be cool and breezy with heavy and locally thundery showers, with sunny intervals in between.
Tuesday daytime will see sunshine and fewer showers, before wet and very windy weather sweeps eastwards overnight, followed by westerly gales in some areas - these winds may be disruptive.
Wednesday and Thursday will be blustery, cool days with heavy showers in most areas, but by next weekend the weather will be turning calmer with more dry weather around, although there could still be a few showers - in southeast England on Saturday, and in the northwest on Sunday.
By:
johnnyrant
When: 11 Sep 17 10:54
soft, heavy in places Shocked wtf happened? Changes everything. Simply will not dry out very much this week with showery outlook.
By:
johnnyrant
When: 11 Sep 17 10:55
http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html
By:
dyno-layer
When: 11 Sep 17 11:01
Dont bet until day of the race
By:
johnnyrant
When: 11 Sep 17 11:03
13 confirmed
By:
johnnyrant
When: 11 Sep 17 11:40
Abyssinian, Air Supremacy, Capri, Count Octave, Crystal Ocean, Defoe, Douglas Macarthur, Raheen House, Rekindling, Stradivarius, The Anvil, Venice Beach, Coronet
By:
johnnyrant
When: 11 Sep 17 11:41
Just the 6 AOB runners
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Sep 17 16:15
AOB has declared 6 at present with Capri leading the pack at 4/1, but he finished behind Douglas Macarthur and Rekindling and having every chance in Ireland; he also did not seem to stay the Derby trip at Epsom. He was also gifted the Irish Derby; he had a clear run to the post unlike the other principal runners jockeying for positions; the fav of the race Wings Of Eagles sustained a career ending injury during the race.

The ground is soft at present with little or no rain from wednesday 6am to race day. Venice Beach (VB) can go in the soft and was running on towards the end over 12f against Cracksman at York but is better on good ground, I believe; Rekindling is proven on this trip against Order Of St George and Wicklow Bay in Ireland.
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Sep 17 22:53
Someone is doing a Nelson Bunker Hunt with the price of VB - his price has collapsed.
By:
dyno-layer
When: 12 Sep 17 05:58
2017-09-13 - DONCASTER
Updated - September 11th 2017, 3:05:12 pm


Friday 7.6 mm of rainfall temp high +18
Saturday 5.2mm of rainfall
Sunday Dry
Monday 17mm of rainfall at 15-04 Cry
Forecast is unsettled a risk of rain or showers Tuesday and Wednesday with strong gusting winds. Forecasts currently to be dry Thursday onwards with temp high +17
By:
dyno-layer
When: 12 Sep 17 08:24
Out of interest Doncaster have updated their going stick reading as of this morming @ 7-45am ...6.0

This is the joint lowest reading the course have had all year, flat and jumps

Another deluge forecast overnight followed by a mainly dryish and windy forecast.

If anyone has a form book that shows a horses ability on sticky rotton cloggy ground then find the one most likely to excel under these circumstances
By:
the bloob
When: 12 Sep 17 18:13
Donny dries out very quickly, one of the best draining courses in the country. With a couple of dry days I can see Good to Soft on Saturday
By:
dyno-layer
When: 12 Sep 17 18:29
Put a thick black line through 

*** any top of the ground horses

*** any doubtful stayers.

*** any horse with a long absence to overcome ( as this test is likely to pull the guts right out of them )

Ideally you are looking for an uncomplicated horse who can grind through the tacky slurp and probably stay 2 miles
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Sep 17 19:30
If soggy ground and stamina sapping Crystal Ocean could be inconvenienced the most of the fancied ones. Defoe and Rekindling perhaps, and the latter has Gp 1 form to boot and a proven stayer over this trip.
By:
dyno-layer
When: 12 Sep 17 19:45
IIm not seeing where rekindling wants rotton ground tbh ... Defoe will cope. As things stand He is the percentage call i think
By:
the bloob
When: 12 Sep 17 19:48
Crystal Ocean won a G3 easily at Goodwood on Soft, but I agree that the trip could be a problem in softish ground
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Sep 17 21:15
I do not foresee the soft/yielding ground (if so) is an issue for Rekindling and neither will the trip but it might trip up Crystal Ocean and Coronet. I was a fan of Capri last season and beginning of this but I do not think he will stay the trip; the victory of Stradivarius over Big Orange, I believe) was made to look better because of the softish ground which inconvenienced the latter massively. Defoe keeps delivering may it be only in Listed and Gp 3 races; he is also improving and is the unknown.

Rekindling (2nd Gp 1 winner for Joseph perhaps) and Venice Beach (Moore's choice?) against the field for me.
By:
1st time poster
When: 13 Sep 17 14:24
heard Jason weaver say the other night there was a ton of money early on in derby week,when there was a horrendous forecast as though they expected it to run well on bad ground,drifting if anything at the moment though
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