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impossible123
20 Jul 17 10:25
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Highland Reel (HR) at 11/8 is the short price fav and one to beat. With Enable discounted by his trainer already maybe Jack Hobbs (JH) could deputise (this race was nominated by Gosden post Meydan win), and the ground could be in his favour too - quite a bit of rain forecast, at the moment.

AOB could be double handled with Idaho; Ulysses is also a probable along with maybe Frontiersman and/or Hawkbill - the last two in the same ownership as JH.

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Replies: 278
By:
impossible123
When: 21 Jul 17 18:27
There seems to be a bit of money for Jack Hobbs with the high street bookies, 10/1 into as short as 6/1; final decs is monday 24th July. Probable runner or red herring?
By:
brigust1
When: 21 Jul 17 20:59
Looks like the weather is going heavily in Jack Hobbs direction. I wonder what excuse JG will come up with not to run him? I've already lost on Enable and Cracksman and small bets on OOSG and Com (not lost yet) but I have not given up on JH with several bets up to 16s on the exchange, sportsbook, jokes and sky. Let us see what Monday brings. At least it shouldn't matter that Frankie is injured.
By:
brigust1
When: 21 Jul 17 21:51
The home straight at Ascot is very well drained so will not get really soft unless it rains heavily on the day. The forecast is overcast for most of the week with showers so there is every encouragement to run. Seems like I have said this before.
By:
brigust1
When: 21 Jul 17 22:41
I couldn't be worried about the opposition if there is cut. Highland Reel has not won where there is soft or yielding in the description, Idaho hasn't shown this level of form previously, Ulysses best form is on fast ground and I have a question mark against his ability to stay the trip and Frontiersman has also shown a preference for fast ground and being quirky. The rest are any price on here. Looks a shoe in. Crazy
By:
dunlaying
When: 22 Jul 17 01:56
Any cut would give Dartmouth an e/w chance.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 10:15
Enable down to 6/1 on here wtf? Is JG messing me about again?
By:
impossible123
When: 22 Jul 17 14:19
More money for Jack Hobbs into 6.4 here from 10 just a few minutes ago. Could it be 3rd time lucky? No show in the Coronation and then the Hardwicke; at 5/1 it is still oozing value, in my opinion, given what he did at Meydan to Highland Reel and Seventh Heaven, the horse who beat Found the winner of the Arc over the same distance.

Let's hope his participation is confirmed on monday.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 14:32
I'm all for creative form reading, but while there might be some punters who think that Found who ran Almanzor close at Leopardstown then won the Arc ran to the same form when beaten by Seventh Heaven surely nobody can seriously argue that Postponed ran to his best at Meydan? As for the idea that Highland Reel ran anywhere near his form I can only think that's a wind-up.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 14:40
I don't think it is creative thinking F if you are talking about HR being beaten by JH at Meydan. It was a Gr1 over 12f on yielding ground and if you look at his three previous runs on yielding ground where he was well beaten by Almanzor, Werther and Golden Horn they were over 10f and had they been over further he would have been beaten a lot further. Not creative at all.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 14:48
It was a Gr1 over 12f on yielding ground

No it wasn't.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 14:55
Fooled me.
Longines Dubai Sheema Classic (Group 1) (Turf)
(3yo+) (1m4f11yds) 1m4f Yielding
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 14:59
Sorry, my mistake, you are quite right that race was described as run on yielding ground as you say. I had been looking at the previous year when he was beaten by Postponed on good ground. However, he ran well enough over the same trip on good to soft ground when narrowly beaten in the Hardwicke. Obviously it can be argued it was a lower class event but it would be a big stretch to say he ran to his Hardwicke form in Meydan this year. In any case, whether it was the ground to blame or not the fact remains he didn't run anywhere near his best form in Meydan this year. The ground at the moment is described as good at Ascot.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 15:07
Easily done F, I had to double check myself. I did suggest I don't think HR handles cut and his Ascot run could be deceiving. The ground up the home straight at Ascot is always a lot faster than generally described which helped him in what was, as you say, a lower class race. I've made no secret of the fact about HR's stamina and with cut it finds him out I guess. WE may see on Saturday.
Of course, I expect the going to be faster than this but if the showers continue occasionally through the week and the ground is on the soft side of good that will do for me. That's if I have a runner.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 15:28
There are a few problems with blaming the ground for Jack Hobbs' latest display, a run which I would describe as pretty dismal considering he was well fancied. As often is the case the ground on the Ascot round course wasn't as fast as on the straight. This is backed up by the description, the going stick readings and the times. Even after allowing that the race wasn't truly run the ground couldn't have been quicker than the fast side of good on the round course. Even before he'd met the straight Jack Hobbs was under pressure and wandering. Jack Hobbs' ran very well in the 2015 Derby on ground faster than at Ascot. If that wasn't his best form it was at least up with his best.

Now I can understand Gosden not wanting to risk the horse on firm ground after injury but can we really believe the horse is still a Gp1 horse but has lost the ability to perform on ground the fast side of good? Not just run slightly below his level on that ground but well below it? I can't think of one Gp1 horse from the past who was able to perform on good to firm ground earlier in its career, retained its ability at the age of 5, but was then only able to perform on slow ground.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 15:48
I couldn't disagree with much of that F. Not sure about the under pressure and wandering and it did turn into a 2 furlong sprint on fastish ground. Two things that would not have suited this Derby 2nd, Irish Derby and Meydan 12f winner on softish ground. The other horses in the race were fast ground performers and quicker, shorter distance horses. That found him out in my opinion. I think he handles the ground perfectly OK but the quicker horses in a slowly run race undone him. That will not necessarily be the case in the KG.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 15:54
Certainly excuses can be made for horses being inconvenienced by a slow early pace. I made the same excuse for Ribchester in last year's Sussex. It's difficult to give a start to good horses off a slow pace. The big difference here is Jack Hobbs was losing ground at the finish to supposedly inferior horses. That can't be excused on pace and/or trip.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 16:09
Quick horses have approximately a two furlong flat out sprint in them and are often saved in their races for this late dash which,if timed correctly, can look impressive. Other, more one paced horses, prefer a longer run at it and tend to lead some way out heading for home and hoping to take the sting out of the fast horses. If the faster horses and the one paced horses set off together it shows very clearly. The PoW was filled with fast horses.
The winner, if you saw the Breeders Cup win, is clearly fast. Decorated Knight has been campaigned mostly at around a mile. Ulysses is clearly very fast, one of the reasons I question his stamina, Queens Trust showed brilliant 2f speed in her Breeders Cup race. Mektaal needs to be fast to win in France where they never go fast until late on, Scottish was in front and the very best place for a late sprint and JV has a lot of shorter distance form.
Whereas if you look at JH his form is all 12f or 10f form on end of season ground.
I think he would wipe all of these out over 12f at a proper end to end gallop. And I have paid for the privilege of seeing it.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 16:11
Albeit I will be over 4000 miles away at the time. Crazy
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 16:20
And if there is cut in the ground it will be even better.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 16:23
Jack Hobbs gallop this morning : Enjoyed getting his toe in for a change on the round gallop, where he was to the fore under Rab Havlin just ahead of Maverick Wave (Robert Tart) over a mile. The five-year-old is also in the frame for the King George and the unsettled forecast could allow him to get closer to Highland Reel this time around.

Looks like he may be in line for the KG. Must not count my chickens. Whoops
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 16:31
I don't think I've ever seen Queen's Trust show anything like brilliant speed in her entire career. That Breeders Cup race was run at a good pace, Dettori rode her perfectly from the rear and she stayed on past slowing horses who had expended more energy. The sectionals are public. Anyway, that's not really the point. If the pace and trip were purely to blame for Jack Hobbs' run then if not gaining at the finish he should have at least stayed within the same distances as when starting his run. The comments say weakened inside furlong and he was. Possibly he just had an off day, it happens, but in my view that Meydan form is really quite poor with Postponed and Highland Reel below their best. We haven't seen enough from Seventh Heaven to see how good a 4yo she is. For me, with how the race panned out Jack Hobbs only had to run to his Champion Stakes 3yo form to win that race. I've not seen anything from him to show he's improved at all, let alone in line with the wfa scale. I suppose I can see why he'd be backed as a trade. Gosden will be keen to run him on ground as slow as he can get at the moment and if the going stays at least good he'll probably want to run. If he does he's likely to attract some support and with the upbeat gallop report it looks like some punters are expecting that. As far as his winning chance goes, however, I can't see why he should be shorter than he is.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 16:46
Another thing with Jack Hobbs last time was he definitely did not look at ease in the paddock. Possibly just a sign he wasn't really on his game last time but it's also possible he's not at ease with the whole racing game nowadays.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 17:07
You are resting a lot on one run F. Queen's Trust run in the Nassua was not rubbish.
But by switching the ground and pace emphasis between Ascot, where the ground was fast and the race slowly run and it was clearly unsuitable for Jack Hobbs wasn't acceptable to you whereas in Meydan where the ground was slow and the pace was fast according to you that wasn't the reason Highland Reel did not perform. Goose and gander time?
Of course the Ascot race was the 2nd time JH wore blinkers and there is always the possibility they did not work as well the second time but I have no evidence of that as yet.
I always thought JG thought Jack was able to win over 10f on the right ground and so far he has not been proved wrong but he is clearly stamina rich whereas his main opponents look decidedly stamina poor. And I think that will show up on Saturday next.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 17:28
Queen's Trust run in the Nassua was not rubbish.

Never said it was, but beating Jemayel by a length and a quarter was hardly a display of 'brilliant speed'.

Ascot, where the ground was fast and the race slowly run and it was clearly unsuitable for Jack Hobbs wasn't acceptable to you

I've said the ground was only the fast side of good on the round course. Whether the pace is slow or not A true Gp1 performer on form would not actually lose ground at the finish of a race to a runner like Johannes Vermeer because of a slow early pace, there is no logic to that.

whereas in Meydan where the ground was slow and the pace was fast according to you that wasn't the reason Highland Reel did not perform. Goose and gander time?

The early pace wasn't that fast at Meydan. Regardless of that, I don't see why a view of the first race should go hand in hand with the view of the other, can you explain why you think it should?
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 18:16
I guess it comes from riding in gallops where horses go no more than half speed, you quickly differentiate between those with and those without speed.

In my opinion I have singled out the speed horses in the PoW in varying degrees. You need not agree. That is what makes betting in races work.

At the moment the King George looks like being a battle between what I consider to be the speed horses (Highland Reel and Ulysses) and the stamina horses (Jack Hobbs and Idaho). With the going looking like adding to the test and the nature of the Ascot racecourse ensuring stamina comes into play if the race is run at a genuine pace I see it as a very, very good betting opportunity. Especially as I think JH has better form than Idaho.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 18:22
Then if you wish you can factor in the reason why Enable and Cracksman have been rerouted when I believe they would both have had outstanding chances had they run. I see no reason for their not running other than the fact that JG had a more suitable replacement.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 18:24
I don't know how many more clues you need and in fact, JH may even be vying for favouritism on the day.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 18:39
Regarding Cracksman I think Gosden has probably reached the conclusion that most of us have by now. The 3yo middle distance colts are really moderate and his colt would likely be up against it with the older horses. He probably wants to give him a bit of a break too. As for Enable I would definitely have backed her for the KG if he'd aimed her here but I'm thinking as a punter. She's an outstanding filly in my view and if I trained/owned her I'd definitely want her ready for the Arc. It's not impossible to win the KG and Arc in the same year but it has proved very difficult. While I think she would beat these at the weights she might just have had a harder race than ideal and I reckon connections have done the right thing in saving her for easier targets then the Arc. I very much doubt the planning of targets for the Juddmonte filly and Oppenheimer's colt has anything to do with where the Godolphin horse is going.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 18:50
I have to disagree F. I think the possible opposition is a big factor when deciding whether to run or not. I think JG didn't want to run Enable or Cracksman against Jack Hobbs. Don't forget JH was favourite for the PoW so with HR being favourite he would know, or at least have a good idea, where he is. I do think with a clear pitch he would have run one or other of his 3 year olds but did not want to run them against Jack Hobbs. Knowing Enable would likely have a hard race and a stamina test. I know she stays but the race would not be a short one and that could jeopardise her Arc chances. If, as you think, the 3 year old colts aren't up to much then running JH was his only choice. What else could he run him in? So I do think the planning of his other charges could easily have been decided by his decision to run JH. For Enable it was because she would have a harder race than necessary at this time and for Cracksman because he would be unlikely to win and t could give him another hard race after his latest excursions.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 18:57
I know we often disagree F but this time I have you 'check mate'. You cannot back Highland Reel because he doesn't win on the ground and he is not guaranteed to stay and his price is too short. You cannot back Ulysses because he has no form on the ground, is not guaranteed to stay and cannot beat HR on form. You cannot back Idaho because he just has not got the form to win. You cannot back Frontiersman because Appleby has already said he won't like soft ground and he is too quirky and cannot win on form.
You can only back JH. He has already beaten the favourite. He is guaranteed to stay. Guaranteed to like the ground, has not been over raced and is a great price. It makes absolute sense.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 19:05
For Enable it was because she would have a harder race than necessary at this time and for Cracksman because he would be unlikely to win and t could give him another hard race after his latest excursions

Yes, so those plans were already mapped out regardless of Jack Hobbs.

JH was his only choice. What else could he run him in?

Exactly. JH was likely to go where the others weren't going, rather than the other way around. One last hopeful roll of the dice, but a similar showing to last time and it's off to retirement.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 19:15
He mapped out the KG after Meydan before Enable had run in the Oaks or even Chester. You can still get 7/1. It's 5s on here. You know it makes sense. Go on, help yourself.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 19:19
My three week holiday to Florida with the family will either be free or it will cost me around a tenth more than I have paid. Happy hunting.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 19:22
On present entries even if he's a sure runner I make him about an 8/1 chance so no ta. If I see what I saw from him last time in the paddock again I might even lay him if he ends up vying for favouritism like you think. Seems unlikely to get backed as heavily as that though.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 19:32
8/1? If, as expected, he is confirmed on Monday you won't see anything like that. The only horse in the race with Gr1 form over the trip and on ground with cut. Are you serious? You are even pointing out reasons why he may not have performed last time. That sounds like you are telling me that if he looks OK in the paddock you will be backing him?
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 19:49
8/1? If, as expected, he is confirmed on Monday you won't see anything like that. The only horse in the race with Gr1 form over the trip and on ground with cut. Are you serious?

That's the chance I think he has of winning, not the price I expect him to start. Because of past exploits he's always likely to be underpriced in my opinion. I liked him as a 3yo. Backed him each way in the Derby and to win in the Irish Derby, posted on here. I just prefer to see a horse prove it's trained on from 3 to 4 rather than take it for granted, as the betting will nearly always assume it has. For me when Jack Hobbs won in Meydan he ran up to his 3yo form, whereas he ought to have improved since then in order to offset the weight allowance he no longer receives as an older horse. The Meydan race was no better than Gp3 form in my view and that's very unlikely to be good enough here. On top of that he ran poorly last time and I don't see the pace, ground or trip as valid excuses to run as badly as he did. He has only had two races this year so of course it's possible he could improve again, but I'd say 8/1 covers that.

That sounds like you are telling me that if he looks OK in the paddock you will be backing him?

I will not be backing him even if he looks very well. However if he looks as uncomfortable as last time I would want to lay him if short enough. That was not the demeanour I want to see from a horse, especially one that has come back from a serious injury.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Jul 17 20:44
Pride comes before a fall F. Beaten half a length by Found as a 3 year old when Found wasn't given the greatest of rides then beaten nearly 2 lngths by Found as a 4 year old in a better race doesn't look anything but progress to me. Through Golden Horn, Storm the Stars, Erupt, Dartmouth, Highland Reel, Seventh Heaven, Postponed, My Dream Boat and Found  Jack Hobbs has definitely improved and if, as you say, he didn't look great in the paddock at Ascot added to the going and the way the race was run the writing is on the wall in capital letters.

I'm off for an early night F I have a really busy couple of days. Don't stay up to late.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 17 21:13
Jack Hobbs has definitely improved

We'll see. If the likely starters all run I can see him coming third at best but think it's more likely he'll run tamely again.

he didn't look great in the paddock at Ascot

Physically he did look great, mentally not so great, in my view.
By:
impossible123
When: 22 Jul 17 21:48
JH did not run too badly to be just 5.5l behind HR in the PoW at Royal Ascot considering the ground was like concrete and over an inadequate trip of 10f. I think if JH runs up to the form he showed behind Almanzor after 6 months off with a pelvic injury he'd take all the bating; if the ground is on the soft side of good JH is the horse to beat - not HR - over 12f.

JH was impressive at Meydan given his ideal ground and trip. Should he win well on saturday - assuming he runs - he'll be much further higher up in the Arc betting, I believe. Shame Dettori is not riding him being Godolphin owns.
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