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impossible123
03 Jul 17 21:29
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 12,554 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
The 3yr old colts are heading the market. Cliffs Of Moher (CoM) the Derby runner-up is fav at 11/4; the SJP winner and conqueror of Churchill Barney Roy is 4/1 with Derby 5th Eminent at 9/2. Their elders are headed by Decorated Knight and Ulysses at 8/1; Jack Hobbs is 14/1 (only 6/1 with the sponsor) but will he run after the drubbing on good/firm ground (possibly similar going here) in the Prince Of Wales at Ascot just 2.5 weeks ago come race day?

Is CoM the justified 11/4 fav with two 2000G principals in the field?
Pause Switch to Standard View The Eclipse Stakes (sat 8th July)
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Report Figgis July 8, 2017 6:55 PM BST
Decent run from Barney Roy though. I was wrong about the hard race possibly affecting him last time but right about him staying. He's a bit below top class as really a true Gp1 3yo should be beating all but the great older horses on these terms. I think the yard chose the right race for him though and it almost paid off. Think things might get a bit difficult for him from here as not only has he had another tough race but the weight allowance decreases so he'll probably need to improve a bit again unless his future Gp1 races are all weak.
Report ReaseHeath July 8, 2017 7:26 PM BST
Barney Roy has only had 5 races and it is a little over 9 months since he made his racecourse debut so I can still seem him improving.

I doubt they'll go for the Sussex Stakes now though given he did n't appear overly comfortable with the dip at Newmarket and he definitely was n't found wanting for stamina today, the first two pulled nicely clear. I'm not sure Godolphin would want to run him against Ribchester either.

It may sound a bit daft but I'd consider a pair of blinkers for the winner, he looked like he thought he'd done enough at the end having travelled through the race like the best horse to my eye.

Juddmonte surely the target for Barney Roy now - but I agree that's shaping up like a tougher race than today and he'd need to improve to have a winning chance.
Report A_T July 8, 2017 8:36 PM BST
Coolmore will probably regret having only one other a pacemaker that didn't do a very good job - another couple of runners might have provided Churchill-style "cover" for CoM and prevented the attempted excursion over the rail. Jury out on CoM. Eminent was awful pulled from the start and backers quickly knew their fate - can forget him now IMO.

I would put the winner in the bottom 50% of Eclipse winners but not amongst the very worst.
Report A_T July 8, 2017 8:46 PM BST
Incidentally first blood to the older horses over the 3yos. Hard to see where this generation are going to win the big G1s against their elders - especially if Almanzor and Minding come back sound.
Report Howellsy July 8, 2017 9:00 PM BST
Figgis, you might be right about Barney but I can't see why he won't be ready to run a big race at York, a race that might just suit him ideally.
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 8:46 AM BST
What a confusing result. I first thought the start and early pace and the fast ground suited the miler types but the third horse is not necessarily a miler. Stoutes claim that Ulysses is potentially a 12f horse I think is wrong, we will see. I think the Derby horses were inconvenienced by the fast ground and the slow early pace. I think Barney Roy will get a strongly run 10f because he led just past the line and was not stopping. CoM's best form, apparently, was making the running on yielding ground. I thought Eminent would have gone forward but was given a strange ride having been strangled for the first 2 furlongs. RM wasn't hard on CoM at all because he knew he couldn't go the pace at the end on that ground. The last two turning in finished wide and filled 1st and 3rd places. The 2nd horse also challenged wide. As I said a confusing result.
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 10:15 AM BST
Having watched the race a few times I wouldn't mind betting the instructions to Taj Mahal's jockey were 'do not let Eminent have an easy lead' and that may be why he sat wide while those inside him didn't want to go on which was odd because they think TM stays 12f. Rumours were that Eminent would stride on thus if he was taken on, harried by TM, it would jeopardise his chances and also ensure a good pace for CoM. For some reason SDS strangled Eminent early and reined back behind TM. Leaving Taj Mahal's jockey to either let the pace drop even further or to go on. The tactics on Eminent were odd because off a steady pace he couldn't beat Barney Roy.
Report twonky July 9, 2017 10:29 AM BST
I wouldn't give up on Eminent just yet, he could be the type of horse that needs a lengthy absence to show his best. I'm not convinced that he needs softer ground either. Proberley they September stakes at Kempton would be his best chance of a decent prize. Will be a better 4yo.

As for the race, it was upto scratch. A very good finishing time, with 2 very good horses putting 3 lengths between them and the 3rd. Of the 2, I felt Barney Roy has had the harder race, was already at work when Ulysses came cantering by him, but fair credit to him for fighting back. Ulysses reminds me of the od forum favourite, Harchibald...immense talent but needs to be produced on the line.

All eyes on the International now, which is shaping up to be the race of the season, though I'd still expect Ulysses to finish ahead of Barney Roy and throw in the exciting and progressive filly Nezmaah and we've got a classic to look forward to.

Atm, I'm still not convinced by he 3yos, but Caravaggio does look top notch and wouldn't look out of place in any previous July cup and Churchill, who's 3rd group 1 in 6 weeks was proberley his undoing at ascot.
Report A_T July 9, 2017 11:32 AM BST
no doubt there's a race for emiment somewhere -  but not at G1 level - 3 strikes and you're out
Report impossible123 July 9, 2017 12:02 PM BST
Ulysses was a worthy winner however, I cannot believe this was a top notch form despite the winning time; Ulysses has a tendency to stop once hitting the front, and the ground was probably quicker than officially recognised as the day progressed, I believe.

CoM and/or Eminent could be extremely expensive to follow at this distance, and I'd not be surprised if Eminent is dropped back to 8f after this and the Epsom Derby. I do not think these field will worry either Almanzor and/or Highland Reel given similar conditions in the Juddmonte.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 12:33 PM BST
I have Ulysses in the lower range for a 10f Gp1 but even though in the lower range he's definitely a Gp1 horse. I believe Stoute is right that his future is over 12f and if he were mine and comes out of the race well I'd have no hesitation in aiming him at the King George. In my view a performance that might be seen as a lower range performance over 10f translates to an average level performance over 12f as the longer distance races usually don't require quite the same speed to win. I have Ulysses on the same mark as Stoute's Conduit who went on to win the King George. If Ulysses can replicate his Eclipse form over 12f, and I see no reason why he shouldn't, he'll take a lot of beating. The only possible danger being Highland Reel, and while that horse will be no pushover if recovering from his latest efforts I'd just give Ulysses the edge.
Report roadrunner46 July 9, 2017 12:42 PM BST
so it proved that the best form on offer in the race was the 1 1/4 length 3rd behind highland reel, although matched on ratings with
decorated knight in this race, the winner had the better potential for improvement as a 4yo, having gone up to 119 from 116 for its last race. ive lost count of the times on this forum that highland reel has been mentioned as not being a very good horse.
well done winners.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 12:59 PM BST
Should have said the only possible danger assuming Enable doesn't run, and if the Irish Oaks is still a firm target she'd have to be unlikely to turn up at Ascot.
Report unclepuncle July 9, 2017 1:49 PM BST
Eminent's connections got what they deserved. They seem to suffer from 'little man' syndrom, enjoying their 5 minutes in the spotlight and making unnecessary jockey changes and overly bullish noises about the horse - reminds me of David Bridgwater.Cry

He has won first time out both seasons so clearly goes well fresh so if he were mine he wouldn't run again until at least September, and then at a lower level to see if he actually still possess the inclination to win. I do feel from his action he would like some cut (or ease) as well so will see how it goes and at least he should be a very big price in the top races (QEII maybe?) - if he isn't I won't be backing him.
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 2:02 PM BST
I have to disagree F. His 12f form is not good, he had a couple of bumps in the Derby but was beaten half the track mostly in the last 2 furlongs. He showed a lot of speed in the Eclipse on fast ground and he showed similar speed in the PoW before emptying. I don't think 12f is his bag at all. Unless he is showing something at home he isn't showing on the racetrack and I cannot see them galloping 12f at home at all.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 2:23 PM BST
He was a very inexperienced horse going into the Derby. His maiden win while promising didn't really amount to much. In the Derby he was already under pressure before the 10f mark so no surprise that he faded and it was the same story in America. He had potential for big improvement this year just like so many Stoute older horses have in the past. The Gordon Richards Stakes win was again promising but didn't really reveal how much he had improved as it was slowly run. The POW was another slowly run race and while a quicker run race probably would've shown him to better effect, in the light of yesterday's win in a faster run race it's stretching credibility to say he got done for stamina in the POW, as even Decorated Knight got back up against him. I've always said it's ridiculous to judge a horse's form as though it's a straight line on a graph. Horses have peaks and troughs and in my opinion Ulysses is currently in the form of his life, 12f will be no problem against similar opposition.
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 2:33 PM BST
You could be right F, that turn of foot if he did get the trip would be useful. He is bred to get it but I think he won't. His Derby form with Deauville stacks up as being not good enough, he only hung on by his fingertips yesterday and he beat Dark Encounter in third, the rest had possible excuses. Be interesting to see but not for me.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 2:46 PM BST
His Derby form with Deauville stacks up as being not good enough

Are you seriously suggesting his Derby run is a representation of his current form?
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 2:54 PM BST
Well the Derby form and Gordon Richards form is very similar and if the bumps knocked a couple of lengths out of him they would be the same.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 3:04 PM BST
he beat Dark Encounter in third

As for Dark Encounter, he certainly put up a far better performance than I expected. However, the final time was good, most of the other runners ran to a mark I had them on before, and he was running on past beaten horses. It was a level that he will probably never be able to repeat again. Frontiersman put up a similar run in the Coronation Cup and even though it's more possible that horse has improved personally I'm a bit wary of him repeating it. While the run of Dark Encounter was almost impossible to predict I still wouldn't regard it as a shock, as the form book is full of such performances throughout the years. People tried to crab Harbinger's Hardwicke Stakes win because of the proximity of Duncan, ignoring that every other runner in the race was thrashed. Duncan ran a similar race to Dark Encounter, running on past beaten horses and reaching a level he couldn't repeat again. I reckon it would be just as foolish to downgrade Ulysses because of Dark Encounter, not that he's another Harbinger of course Wink
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 3:07 PM BST
Well the Derby form and Gordon Richards form is very similar and if the bumps knocked a couple of lengths out of him they would be the same.

I really can't believe anybody would truly think that was his current form and not allow that some horses improve greatly from 3 to 4, but each to their own I suppose.
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 3:23 PM BST
I look at all of the clues F. If Deauville had finished 10 lengths in front of Ulysses in the Derby then it could be right to claim the bumps he received were costly but it doesn't look as though they were. It is all part of the jigsaw, discount nothing.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 3:28 PM BST
It is all part of the jigsaw, discount nothing

But in nearly all your posts you appear to discount that some horses improve massively from 3 to 4. In the cases of older horses you repeatedly refer back to 3yo form, when sometimes it's almost completely irrelevant to what the horse is capable of now.
Report roadrunner46 July 9, 2017 3:54 PM BST
its a fact that ulysses best runs have been at 10f, so stepping up to 12f in the king george would be a slight worry for me, also think his 3yo form has no bearing in regards his form now, which has stepped up to a completely new level in his last two races.
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 4:00 PM BST
I only go by what I have. At the beginning of the season the previous year's form is all there is. The trainer may tell you it has improved but they are not always right. If a horse is lightly raced then improvement could be there, it is subjective. Some horses lose a bit of speed as they get older and are put up in trip accordingly but not, in my experience, up in grade. I judge everything on it's own individual merits. Nothing Ulysses has done in his 10 starts tells me he is a 12f horse. Of his 3 attempts he was well beaten in the Derby, he won the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood fast ground, sharp track he beat a poor bunch narrowly. And then he ran 4th in the US again sharp track, fast ground. None of it looks potential 12f Gr1 winning form to me. I won't be backing him in the KG anytime soon.
Report A_T July 9, 2017 4:03 PM BST
By Galileo out of an Oaks winner 12f should be Ulysses' best trip. Stoute has a tremendous record with older horses in the King George - a clash with Highland Reel would be one to savout.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 4:06 PM BST
Well my first thoughts after rating the Eclipse was I hope Ulysses goes up to 12f as that level of form would be hard to beat over another 2f. I wouldn't be as interested in him in future races at the same trip. I hadn't heard or read Stoute's comments at the time so it's interesting that on reading what was said he quickly mentioned 12f without appearing to be prompted about the option.

He said: "Don't rule out going back to a mile and a half. He ran a big race at Santa Anita last year [fourth in the Breeders' Cup Turf] and he's not as keen now. He settles better, and he'll get a mile and a half"

I hope most people disagree with the pair of us as if he does decide to go for the KG hopefully the price shouldn't shorten too much.
Report unclepuncle July 9, 2017 4:16 PM BST
Figgis  - While I have no issue with Ulysses stepping up to 12f I find it strange that you say you wouldn't be interested in him at 10f.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 4:28 PM BST
Uncle, even though most of us racing fans relish the 12f tests I believe that generally the 10f races are more competitive and require a slightly higher level of form to win. The level he reached in the Eclipse is at the lower end of my Gp1 scale for 10f races but over 12f it would be a more typical winning level. Obviously I'm not saying he's not going to win more 10f races, just that I think they could be more difficult to win unless they remain on the weak side, plus he'll probably be priced shorter at the same trip.
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 6:08 PM BST
I do not care what Stoute says especially when he uses the Breeders Cup race as a guide. Ulysses beat Ashleyluvs Sugar and Texas Ryano in a photo they were 40/1 and 100/1 respectively and that wouldn't even qualify him to win a Breeders Cup 12f race. Of course if the conditions as far as ground and course are perfect and the opposition is poor then he might manage a 12f Gr1, possibly in Europe but he will have to do it before I believe it.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 6:16 PM BST
he will have to do it before I believe it

Okay let's clarify this. You're using last year's form to prove that Ulysses doesn't stay 12f. Which of his races last year would you say was his best piece of form?
Report unclepuncle July 9, 2017 6:22 PM BST
Well with Almazour now likely to stay in France for the forseeable future with the Arc as the declared main target (will he run in an Arc trial instead of the Irish Champion?) the remaining 10f Group 1's look like being no stronger than the Eclipse to my eyes.

I do feel York will really suit Barney Roy and so have backed him for the Juddmonte (also partly becuase I hope your are right and Ulysses goes elsewhere) but I'd really fancy Ulysses for the Irish and English Champion Stakes double if that was the route they take - though obviously the weather may intervene.
Report unclepuncle July 9, 2017 6:24 PM BST
^ Obviously as you say he will priced much shorter in future for 10f races so I'm not saying he's a 'value bet' for those races if they go that route.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 6:29 PM BST
Well with Almazour now likely to stay in France for the forseeable future with the Arc as the declared main target

It would be daft to write Almanzor off so I'm not doing but all this stuff we hear about not being ready and needing more time smacks a bit of a horse that probably hasn't trained on.
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 6:41 PM BST
You have a short memory F. Stoute used it as his guide, you even pointed it out. Some of it in bold type. It was Stoute using it as his guide.
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 6:47 PM BST
My reasons I outlined earlier. He seems to have too much speed. He cruised through what I thought was a not truly run Eclipse then nearly got caught. He led in the slowly run PoW then did get caught. Added to that his previous form even on sharp tracks like Santa Anita and Goodwood and it isn't strong enough evidence that he stays 12f.
Apart from your and Stoute's opinion which race leads you to believe he stays 12f?
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 6:47 PM BST
Yes I know that, but you have referred to both last year's Derby and Breeders Cup as evidence that he doesn't stay.
Report A_T July 9, 2017 7:03 PM BST
He led in the slowly run PoW then did get caught

Hardly suggests a speedy type does it?
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 7:52 PM BST
The only 12f races he has run were last year. That still does not answer the question, which race do you think tells you he will stay 12f well enough to win a Gr1 race?
A-T he had enough speed to lead in a slowly run race, I thought that was clear?
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 8:06 PM BST
That still does not answer the question, which race do you think tells you he will stay 12f well enough to win a Gr1 race?

Probably because as far as I can see you have only just asked the question. I believe the horse has proved he stays 12f on his past form. Until yesterday I did not think any of his races had proved that he was good enough to win a decent Gp1 over any trip, although I did say he was still open to improvement. He has now proved he is good enough to win a Gp1 over 10f. Nothing this year has altered my opinion that he stays 12f. It's quite straightforward, he's a Gp1 horse and I believe he stays 12f, as I did last year, therefore he can win a 12f Gp1 race.

So, as I asked before, which race last year would you say was his best piece of form?
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 8:48 PM BST
So it is just your opinion. It is not based on anything you have seen on the track? When asked if they thought Barney Roy would stay the 10f they said he always ran to and through the line getting stronger not tieing up. And they were possibly right though he did have everything in his favour, fast ground steady early pace but watching the way he finished I too believe he is a 10f horse on top of the ground.

That's tough. He narrowly beat Ashleyluvsugar RPR 111, he was beaten narrowly by Chain of Daisy's RPR 111, he was beaten out of sight in the Derby, he narrowly beat Major General RPR 110 and he easily beat New World Power RPR 64. Take your pick.
Report A_T July 9, 2017 9:02 PM BST
A-T he had enough speed to lead in a slowly run race, I thought that was clear?

You're not making any sense. If the race was slowly run why did he get caught if he's a speedy type? He would not have run out of stamina so must have been lack of speed.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 9:08 PM BST
[i]So it is just your opinion. It is not based on anything you have seen on the track?[/i

It is based on the fact that he won the Gordon Stakes. If you believe he won in spite of not staying then that is just your opinion not any evidence on the track. The 11f 218y of the Gordon Stakes is no easy 12f whatever the pace and certainly considerably stiffer than Ascot's 12f.

Not sure why fast ground is being mentioned as being in a horse's 'favour'. It is summer flat racing after all and ground that most of the best horses should go on.
Report ReaseHeath July 9, 2017 9:21 PM BST
For me the way he traveled into the race yesterday suggests he should be just as effective over 12f, his pedigree suggests if anything he should be better at 12f and his trainer was adamant - and quite animated for him - about his prospects over 12f.

Ulysses just thinks he's done enough when he hits the front.

As long as he comes out of the race OK, I'd expect him to run in the King George - the races are spaced so that he could even run in the King George and the Juddmonte International if it did n't work out for him at Ascot.

His jockey would need to ensure he timed his challenge perfectly in the King George though because we know Highland Reel will run his heart out all the way to the line.
Report brigust1 July 9, 2017 11:02 PM BST
You are not looking at last season's form F? Basing your opinion on last season's form? Don't be silly.

Fast ground is mentioned because, contrary to unpopular belief, softer ground produces more of a stamina test.

What I mean't A-T was that he had the speed to get to the front but not the stamina to stay there.

Goodness me I just don't think he is a 12f horse at Gr1 level. I think Stoute's suggestion about the Breeder's Cup was misguided when you look closely at the form and anyone thinking of putting their hard earned cash on him as a result of what he said should, at the very least, look at the evidence. I am not telling anyone not to back him I am just saying I won't be and putting my reasons why.
We still don't yet know how good the Eclipse form is. And I backed him in the Eclipse.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 11:08 PM BST
You are not looking at last season's form F? Basing your opinion on last season's form? Don't be silly.

I am basing my opinion on a horse's ability to stay on last season's form. It would indeed be very silly to believe he stayed last year but not this. Just as it is very silly to base an opinion on a 4yo horse's current level of ability on what he did as a 3yo.
Report Figgis July 9, 2017 11:20 PM BST
Fast ground is mentioned because, contrary to unpopular belief, softer ground produces more of a stamina test.

That's obvious. However, nobody says Dancing Brave won over 12f in the King George and Arc as he was favoured by the fast ground. Or Golden Horn won over 12f in the Derby and Arc because he got his favoured fast ground, etc, and there's no reason why they should, it's irrelevant unless a horse has to run on soft ground.
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 12:19 AM BST
Lots of horses win races beyond their ability because of their class. And actually, Golden Horn didn't run in the King George because of the ground. A horse being considered to run in a race on the edge or close to the edge of their perceived stamina will be reliant on the ground and that applies over all distances.

I have already said that Ulysses could win a Gr1 12f race but I think it will be wholly dependant on the ground, the course and importantly the strength of the opposition. I do not think he will win an average Gr1 race in the UK over 12f.
There are instances where horses who are unlikely to win certain races manage to do so because of circumstance and Highland Reel in last year's King George is one example. I would never back Highland Reel over 12f at Ascot but if he is allowed to dictate his own pace then the rules change that is why I would never lay him either. I couldn't back Highland Reel last year and even though he won that does not change my view. I think he is a 10f horse who, in the right circumstance can win 12f races at Gr1 level. I think Ulysses is a 10f horse who, in certain circumstances might win 12f races but not at Gr1 level.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 12:44 AM BST
it will be wholly dependant on the ground

Stoute has already gone on record as saying that the ground was too soft when Ulysses made his debut, it was good to soft ground, so it's unlikely that he'd fancy the horse on soft ground over any trip and would be unlikely to run him so it's pretty much a pointless thing to get hung up about.

the course

Which course could he win at then? Not many easier Grade 1 12f trips than Ascot's.

I couldn't back Highland Reel last year and even though he won that does not change my view. I think he is a 10f horse who

Which piece of 10f form would you put above his King George win, his Arc second and his Coronation Cup win?
Report woodmanchester July 10, 2017 7:26 AM BST
My nan in her rocking chair could have ridden Cliffs Of Moher better. Obviously had nowhere to go. Jockey a proper turd. Cost me fortunes so far this season
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 9:46 AM BST
Figgis I won't keep being taken round in circles but let me explain Highland Reel's wins you raised.

In the King George last year he beat Wings of Desire who I believe would struggle to win an average Gr1. In the Coronation Cup he beat Frontiersman who has only won two handicaps and a maiden and in the Arc he beat Order of St George who is a two miler. Horses can win races at any level if the opposition is weak enough and circumstances allow it to happen. Poor jockeyship, tactics, poor opposition, ground, track, fitness there are many points to put in the pot. So as far as Highland Reel is concerned you decide which piece of form is best because I don't need to.

The fundamentals of horse racing are that every horse stays 12f. Limato could run in the King George. He wouldn't necessarily win it but he would finish.
Sheikh Mohammed and Jim Bolger thought Dawn Approach would stay 12f. The circumstances surrounding his defeat may not have changed their views but the decided to shelve that part of his career and return to a mile. These are the fundamentals we all have to work to. We make a decision based on what we know and believe then reconsider these opinions as we go along.

As you get deeper into betting then you introduce parameters around which you consider your options. These parameters are often the difference between success and failure. Some races, as you often say, do not warrant a bet because there are too many variables. Then, as you get more experienced the ability to remove horses from the equation becomes easier.
The facts are sometimes available but not always so forming an opinion is the basis on which most of us work. The better the ability to form an opinion the more likely we are to be successful. Often our opinions are proved to be wrong but hopefully, we are right often enough to make a profit.
Unlike some, we form out opinions before the event then reassess after the event. We might be minded to change our opinion but usually only if the evidence is there to support that.
You had your opinion about Cliffs of Moher before the Derby and you may well have changed that or you may say, quite rightly that there is not yet enough evidence to change your view. Often acting too quickly, making a decision too soon, and I see this a lot, can lead to regret and often at a very favourable price. You may think now that he doesn't stay 12f or you may think he will be better at 12f. Making the right decision is fundamental to succes in the long run not in the short term.
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 10:22 AM BST
One thing I did find interesting in the Post today was the Billy Hill's odds compiler saying, given the way he has travelled into his races in his last couple of starts it would be interesting to see Ulysses dropped to a mile. Here, here.
Report jedi sophie July 10, 2017 11:06 AM BST
Agree with opinion re running over a mile,think he would be top drawer...He is already but could be even better over fast run mile,I would be pointing him at Breeders cup mile if mine.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 11:35 AM BST
let me explain Highland Reel's wins you raised

Why not answer the question I asked instead?

Which piece of 10f form would you put above his King George win, his Arc second and his Coronation Cup win?
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 11:40 AM BST
So as far as Highland Reel is concerned you decide which piece of form is best because I don't need to.

You don't need to if you think you can just come out with random comments such as Highland Reel is really a 10f horse that only gets 12f in the right circumstances without having any explanation why he's a better 10f horse. If that's the case though most people will think those comments are groundless piffle.
Report woodmanchester July 10, 2017 12:58 PM BST
Wins the King George again for my money, anyway
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 1:20 PM BST
Figgis you simply do not understand the concept of 'my opinion'. Anyone having an opinion that differs with your's is uttering mindless piffle. If you were right all of the time you certainly would not be on this forum. If you want me to bet with your money then that is fine but while I am betting with my money I will be doing it following my own opinion. I get it wrong and I get it right sometimes but everyone having a different opinion is what makes betting work. I will not be saying anytime soon that your opinion is mindless piffle even after it is proven to be because I know having an opinion is three sided. You can be right, you can be wrong and you can be completely undecided.

Wood if the going comes up on the softer side and Jack Hobbs, to name but one, runs then your money may not be as safe as the price suggests.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 1:37 PM BST
Figgis you simply do not understand the concept of 'my opinion'.

It has nothing to do with having an opinion that I agree with or not. There are many people on here who offer an opinion that I disagree with but I can understand why they reached their opinion. The big difference is they will say why they've reached that opinion, which usually makes sense whether or not I reach the same conclusion. Despite asking you repeatedly to simply state what evidence you're basing your opinion on you have refused to answer and proceeded to waffle about other subjects. I can only take from that it is an opinion based on nothing more than just a hunch.
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 2:07 PM BST
That's right for 55 years and working in top flat and NH yards I base my opinion on a hunch. Laugh
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 2:11 PM BST
That's right for 55 years and working in top flat and NH yards I base my opinion on a hunch

Loads of people have done similar, very few of them were successful punters. Still deflecting attention away from answering the very simple question of which form says Highland Reel is a better performer at 10f than 12f.
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 2:17 PM BST
Still deflecting attention away from answering the very simple question of which form says Highland Reel is a better performer at 10f than 12f.

Where did I say Highland Reel had better form at 10f than 12f?
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 2:22 PM BST
Where did I say Highland Reel had better form at 10f than 12f?

This is like pulling teeth. I never said you did say he had better form. I said you said he was a better performer at 10f.

I think he is a 10f horse who, in the right circumstance can win 12f races at Gr1 level

So it is just your opinion. It is not based on anything you have seen on the track?

This was a question you asked me earlier. I'm asking you the same question. What on the evidence of the track points to HR being a better performer at 10f than 12f?
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 2:24 PM BST
I refer you back to my post at 1.20pm.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 2:30 PM BST
Right, so it's an opinion based on your own opinion, glad we've cleared that up.
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 2:33 PM BST
I don't remember asking you 'what evidence on the track points to Ulysses being a better performer at 10f than 12f'.

That sounds like a question you made up.
Report unclepuncle July 10, 2017 2:35 PM BST
You know that saying about how some people could have an argument in an empty room............Devil
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 2:38 PM BST
I don't remember asking you 'what evidence on the track points to Ulysses being a better performer at 10f than 12f'.

No, which is probably why I didn't say you did.
Report woodmanchester July 10, 2017 2:43 PM BST
Brigust, I wouldn't touch Jack Hobbs with a barge-pole
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 2:51 PM BST
I hope you are wrong Wood. It appears Enable will be running in Ireland on Saturday so my KG bets are diminishing by the minute.

So 'this was a question you asked me earlier' was about what, exactly?
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 2:58 PM BST
Brigust you appear to have difficulty even remembering your own posts form just a few hours earlier so maybe this is an unfair exchange. As you also seem to be unable to find them even though they're on the same page I'll post them for you.

That still does not answer the question, which race do you think tells you he will stay 12f well enough to win a Gr1 race?

So it is just your opinion. It is not based on anything you have seen on the track?
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 3:00 PM BST
*posts from
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 3:38 PM BST
By diverting the question onto something else to suit your agenda gets nowhere. The questions you just posted were about Ulysses not Highland Reel. You changed horses mid-sentence.

So let me ask again and see if you answer or swerve the question?

'That still does not answer the question, which race do you think tells you he will stay 12f well enough to win a Gr1 race?' And the question is about Ulysses.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 3:44 PM BST
Figgis
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That still does not answer the question, which race do you think tells you he will stay 12f well enough to win a Gr1 race?

Probably because as far as I can see you have only just asked the question. I believe the horse has proved he stays 12f on his past form. Until yesterday I did not think any of his races had proved that he was good enough to win a decent Gp1 over any trip, although I did say he was still open to improvement. He has now proved he is good enough to win a Gp1 over 10f. Nothing this year has altered my opinion that he stays 12f. It's quite straightforward, he's a Gp1 horse and I believe he stays 12f, as I did last year, therefore he can win a 12f Gp1 race.

It was already answered in that post yesterday evening. Maybe it's time for your afternoon nap.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 3:46 PM BST
And as you still couldn't grasp things it was followed up by this post.

Figgis
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[i]So it is just your opinion. It is not based on anything you have seen on the track?[/i

It is based on the fact that he won the Gordon Stakes. If you believe he won in spite of not staying then that is just your opinion not any evidence on the track. The 11f 218y of the Gordon Stakes is no easy 12f whatever the pace and certainly considerably stiffer than Ascot's 12f.
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 4:10 PM BST
It is based on the fact he won the Gordon Stakes.

So narrowly beating a horse who had just been beaten in 2 handicaps and was then subsequently tailed off in a Gr2 is enough evidence.

If you are happy with that it is OK with me. It doesn't convince me but then that is up to me.

I will add that your opinion of Goodwood, a sharp, undulating track when compared with Ascot which is uphill for the final mile and of a galloping nature is strange but expected.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 4:23 PM BST
It doesn't convince me but then that is up to me.

Exactly, you don't need to agree, but agree or not it's a plausible conclusion.

I will add that your opinion of Goodwood, a sharp, undulating track when compared with Ascot which is uphill for the final mile and of a galloping nature is strange but expected

My reasoning is based on the fact that if a trip takes around 6 seconds (equates to almost half a furlong) longer to run on one course than it does on another then it has to be a stiffer track. I know you don't believe in times and prefer to rely on vague descriptions such as 'sharp, undulating' and 'uphill for the final mile', even though there are no measurements provided of precisely how steep the uphill section is. That is up to you.

You still haven't answered why Highland Reel is better at 10f.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 4:40 PM BST
Incidentally, Ascot's 11f 211y trip is listed as start height 88y, finish height 88y. Goodwood's 11f 218y is listed as start height 150y, finish height 159y.
Report unclepuncle July 10, 2017 5:49 PM BST
Brig - pack your suitcase and go off and enjoy your hols. And just pray to God that Ulysses doesn't win the KG.Laugh
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 6:27 PM BST
Thanks Uncle. Just got back front the dentist. Nothing done thank goodness.

The only reason I wouldn't want Ulysses to win the KG is because I won't be backing him. And I doubt Figgis will be backing him either.

I am actually not going for about 2 weeks then staying a month so will also miss Goodwood which is a shame but I don't think I will miss anything betting wise. Hopefully not.

I don't know how many times you have walked Ascot and Goodwood racetracks Figgis. Probably the same number as you have walked Epsom. Thank goodness I am not relying on you to give me course details. That is all I can say. If you think a mile climb without a break is easier than a downhill 4 furlong finish then good for you. You were wrong about Epsom and you are wrong about Goodwood. The reason Goodwood takes longer to run is because of it's undulating nature and sharp turns so the strong galloping horse is unable to stretch out properly and get into a rhythm. Ascot has a steady downhill to Swinley Bottom then a gradual rise for about a mile with a level half furlong at the end. It is completely different to Goodwood and no comparison. If the horse doesn't get a breather in at Swinley Bottom then it will need at least one before they turn in that is why the times are faster whereas at Goodwood with it's sharp turns and undulations it is not possible to gallop flat out so pulls have to be taken where breater's can be obtained slowing down the times in the process.
It has nothing at all to do with a stiffer or easier track.
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 6:40 PM BST
It is the nature of these courses and the lie of the land that is important and that is why the last mile at Ascot takes longer to run than the last mile at Goodwood.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 6:53 PM BST
And I doubt Figgis will be backing him either

You were wrong about Epsom

Only in your head. You provided no proof to the contrary, whereas kincsem did post details that proved Epsom is indeed a stiff 12f.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 7:08 PM BST
If you think a mile climb without a break is easier than a downhill 4 furlong finish then good for you

But that's exactly what you were saying about Epsom. The course climbs before the descent into the straight. The start height at Epsom is 110y, despite the descent the finish height is 125y. They've climbed 15y from start to finish. So the uphill part of the course easily outweighs the downhill. You seem to think it doesn't matter if you're climbing higher for most of the race as long as you face a downhill straight, which is absurd.
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 7:13 PM BST
Epsom racetrack is difficult because of the lie in the land but stamina wise it is not stiff. The start is the equivalent of over four two storey houses stacked one on top of the other higher than the finish with the majority of the racecourse downhill and on the turn. Horses cannot easily or comfortably gallop flat out downhill that is why the times are slower not because the course is stiffer. I suggest you take a racecourse tour.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 7:17 PM BST
Horses cannot easily or comfortably gallop flat out downhill that is why the times are slower

Are you really going there again? Okay if horses cannot comfortably gallop downhill and this leads to slow times then why is the Epsom 5f the fastest 5f around with the fastest times?
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 7:38 PM BST
Have you seen the downhill at Epsom before the home straight Figgis. You must have done. A gradual downhill as shown in the home straight is a completely different ball game and even by the times it is not extreme. That is the wrong tree you are barking up. If you cannot see the difference goodness knows.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 7:43 PM BST
Have you seen the downhill at Epsom before the home straight Figgis. You must have done. A gradual downhill as shown in the home straight is a completely different ball game and even by the times it is not extreme

So you're saying that in spite of them running the last 4 furlongs at Epsom on the quickest track in the country, the downhill turn not only negates the advantage of those fast last 4 furlongs but it actually costs the horses to slow down so much that in effect they lose half a furlong in times compared to Ascot?
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 7:54 PM BST
Have you ever seen the course at Epsom. Do you think the final furlong is downhill? Wakey wakey.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 8:03 PM BST
Have you ever seen the course at Epsom. Do you think the final furlong is downhill? Wakey wakey.

Does this have any relevance? We've already established it's the fastest 5f in the country. So the last 1f is partly uphill but only the last few yards leading to the post, what difference whatsoever does that make to your argument that Epsom is an easy 12f?
Report brigust1 July 10, 2017 8:20 PM BST
I seem to remember you telling me Goodwood was stiffer than Ascot because there was a NINE YARD difference in their respective heights. Well there is nearly a THIRTY YARD difference at Epsom from start to finish so if nine yards more makes it stiffer then it goes without saying that thirty yards less makes it the opposite.
You can argue all night. You are wrong and you will always be wrong. You would argue it's dark outside and then try to prove it. Go to Epsom and find out I fon't see why I should waste any more of my time trying to educate you. I'm off.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 8:23 PM BST
Well there is nearly a THIRTY YARD difference at Epsom from start to finish so if nine yards more makes it stiffer then it goes without saying that thirty yards less makes it the opposite.

The Epsom finish is HIGHER than the start. Go and have a lie down brigust Laugh
Report impossible123 July 10, 2017 8:27 PM BST
brigust...do not bother with anyone constantly moving the goalpost of a discussion/debate to suit. It's neither time well spent, informative nor conducive for others.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 8:32 PM BST
And along comes Bungle Happy
Report A_T July 10, 2017 9:13 PM BST
is Ulysses a 12f horse?

No. Brigust's opinion

Yes. Already won a 12f race. By a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner. His trainer (who knows a bit about these things) thinks he will.

You decide.
Report Figgis July 10, 2017 9:28 PM BST
A_T, I'm still curious as to how Highland Reel can be considered a 10f horse that only gets 12f when everything goes his way. I mean I know that can happen sometimes, but with this horse I see no suspicion of that in what he's done on the track.
Report Jack Bauer '24' July 11, 2017 12:47 AM BST
I hope Ulysses does go for the King George. I think he would be a very good each way bet on the day if the current prices are still available. Held up and delivered as late as possible over a fast run 12 furlongs would suit in my view.
Report FELTFAIR July 11, 2017 8:22 AM BST
Figgis 10 Jul 17 20:32 Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 6,940 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
And along comes Bungle Happy


LaughLaugh
Report brigust1 July 11, 2017 10:14 AM BST
I nearly missed my table last night discussing the nuances of racecourses with some who simply do not understand equine athletics. They may know how to rate a race and we have all seen how good ratings are, and they may think they know about timing a race, and we all know what a chocolate teapot that is but they have not one clue about the physical requirements of the horse's whose ratings and times they study. How often a horse breathes in a race, how it will stride out on the track the best positions to obtain in the race relative to the racecourse etc. It is simply not just about ratings and times.

Henry Candy thought Limato would be a miler. On his form at a mile he could have won a dodgy mile race somewhere even at Gr3 level and if he got lucky maybe at Gr1 level but that doesn't make him a miler.

The three Highland Reel races in question, the 2016 King George the review stated Moore sent Highland Reel into the lead from the start and the favourite set a steady early pace from Erupt

In the 2017 Coronation Cup the review stated Allowed an easy lead in the early stages of the Group One with Godolphin pair Hawkbill and Prize Money content to track Ryan Moore, the five-year-old travelled smoothly through the early stages of the mile and a half contest.

In the 2016 Breeders Cup the review stated 'Made all, set modest tempo until quickened around 7 lengths clear passing halfway, ridden over 2f out, kept on well, unchallenged, fine ride.

And in the Arc where the draw played a crucial part and where the result was not complimentary to many of the riders who sat out the back, the review stated Tracked leaders, ridden 3f out, went 2nd 1f out, stayed on, no impression on winner

If you are considering backing Highland Reel in the King George this year you will want to hope he gets an easy untroubled lead, thankfully he is trained by AOB so I cannot see spoilers running, and that the ground is on the fast side. Added to that this time there may be another 10f horse in the race in the shape of Ulysses if he is lucky enough to be allowed a soft early lead he will have to watch out for him.
Will I be taking 7/4 about Highland Reel anytime soon? No because in my opinion he has certain requirements that cannot be guaranteed.
Will I be backing Ulysses at 7/1 anytime soon. I backed him in the Eclipse at 8/1 so the answer is no. I have no evidence he will get the 12f and again any chance he may have could be dependent on the ground.

On the ante post front I have wanted to take on HR without much success yet. I had a nice bet on Enable who looks like running on Saturday, I had a nice bet on Cracksman who looks like going to York, I had a small bet on OoSG who looks like going to Goodwood so all I have left is a nice bet on Jack Hobbs at 12s and a small bet on CoM at 40s and 33s. Combined they make a much better bet than HR is. I hope I get to see the race on holiday.

I don't think there is anything more I cam add to the above but I will be back in about 6 weeks time to review my position and see how everyone else has done. Good luck and happy punting.
Report Figgis July 11, 2017 1:23 PM BST
In the 2017 Coronation Cup the review stated Allowed an easy lead in the early stages of the Group One with Godolphin pair Hawkbill and Prize Money content to track Ryan Moore, the five-year-old travelled smoothly through the early stages of the mile and a half contest.

This is the kind of thing repeated by UK idiots trying to adapt Americanisms to our racing without understanding what they are talking about. Just because a horse has an uncontested lead it does not make it an 'easy lead'. A horse can be going a decent pace on its own in front without having to be pressed for the lead. If anyone would've wanted to go faster than a sensible early pace I'm sure Moore would've been happy to sit just off it and let his horse go its own pace. It has been published that Highland Reel covered the first 5f in 70.38, Enable covered it in 70.53 on the same day. Is anyone trying to say Enable only stayed 12f because she went slow early? Utter bollocks.
Report Figgis July 11, 2017 1:35 PM BST
And in the Arc where the draw played a crucial part and where the result was not complimentary to many of the riders who sat out the back, the review stated Tracked leaders, ridden 3f out, went 2nd 1f out, stayed on, no impression on winner

And this is total rubbish. The Arc was run at a fast pace, those held up had every chance and those staying on from the back were actually slowing down, just less so than those who had been nearer the good pace, as you'd expect.
Report Figgis July 11, 2017 1:59 PM BST
And in the Arc where the draw played a crucial part and where the result was not complimentary to many of the riders who sat out the back, the review stated Tracked leaders, ridden 3f out, went 2nd 1f out, stayed on, no impression on winner

Not too dissimilar from the comments for Highland Reel's run in the International at York last year, which like the Arc was run at a fast pace

Led 1f, tracked leaders, upsides 3f out, kept on same pace last 150yds

Maybe HR doesn't even get 10f when run at a fast pace? Grin
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