AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL 2017

Part of a significant 'V' brigade invading next years race. Could be a fair few AQPS horses in the race and I'm not convinced he is the best of them.

With the changes to the fences the trends peeps have had to move the goal posts year on year but one very important trend is emerging and VLR doesn't fit it. Of the AQPS horses VIRAK, VYTA DU ROC and VALSEUR LIDO do but VICONTE DU NOYER, VICENTE AND VLR do not. Once the entries are out in January I will post something hopefully a bit more interesting than this vague post here!

Nothing vague about The Last Samuri

. Been taking the 25/1 and now 20/1, since his incredible run in the race this year.
And his brilliant 3rd in the recent Becher Chase just strengthend the view that the Aintree fences suit this small, but exhubriantly bold jumper.

I've put up Three Faces West and given reasons on the Grand National Forum on here and surprised and pleased to see he hasn't been raised from 147 after his easy win last week at Newbury.

I have also backed Vieux Lion Rouge just before his Becher win. Backed him before in case he won that which he obviously did and got the price.

I am actually on Regal Encore on here as well!!!! It was just a hunch that it might light him up so I've got £11 @320.  I will def lay some of that off as who could be confident in him.  having said that who knows??

So happy with where I am right now, but a long way to go.

shockster

Of those three you have backed I would say Regal Encore is the most likely, despite having no form over 26f yet. My reason for saying that is this;

If you look at the horses that have finished first and second in the last three runnings of the GN they all have something in common. Look at the best Top Speed rating over hurdles. All of them over 120. The National has changed. Tactical speed and the ability to travel at speed is becoming paramount in this race and horses that have been able to display this during their hurdles careers and transfer it are coming to the fore.

Don Poli has Grand National written all over it after yesterday.  I'm going to back it weekly from now on in. I just pray Mullins is in the saddle and not Cooper.

I have taken an ante post wager on empire of dirt at 25/1 also

Anybody know why the market is suspended?

Tried to get the reason from Betfair Live Chat, staff were completely inept and eventually cut me off without answering

Thanks for the reply suv, total mystery as usual then lol

My short list gets longer by the week.
Wakanda , I have a feeling that his light is under a bushel.
Highland Lodge , should get in and looks the type if he stays.
Many Clouds , I think he has improved a little so could not be ruled out.
Don Poli was high on my list until his last run. The handicapper will not have missed it.

I have added DEFINITLY RED to my Ante Post list.  He's a progressive horse who will get in the race after winning the Rowland Meryck Chase at Wetherby over Christmas.

Three Faces West is injured and out for the season. Bo11ox

Another that might be interesting is Blaklion. If they could get his o/r down another four he could be very attractively weighted.

Anyone know roughly when books go nrnb and 1st 5 ew? Cheers

Not sure about the NRNB, but B365 are already 5 places.

I have had my first bet in the race on Blaklion. If he keeps his present o/r he is sure to get in and be well treated . He goes on any ground , stays and has Spring form .

Im on More of That at 220s on here from November time and am starting to like it more and more. Personally see him having an exceptionally similar but better profile to that of Don't Push it (DPI). His jumping is exceptionally good, he's just not very quick, which over 4 miles you don't have to be. I think he got taken off his feet over inadequate trips in the BV Gold Cup and the Peterborough with Village Vic and Josses Hill respectively setting a frantic early pace. It's not surprise to me that his best run of the year came when he was upped in trip back and going back to 3 miles in the Lexus.  Off 157 he looks to be incredibly well handicapped to my eyes, assuming Don Poli (OR- 165) runs, he will be off what 11-2? 11-3? Providing he doesn't go and hose up between now and then. He no doubts appreciates better ground, he is crying out for a step up and you know what? This time last year he was a world hurdle winner, an Annie Power conquerer and an 15-8F for the RSA with lauding honours of the best novice in training from a lot better judges than me. You don't fall from grace that quickly. I think I'm talking myself into going back in.

Think there could be 5 rated 161 and sharing top weight, the handicapper likes to knock a few pounds off those at the head of the weights.
Champagne West,    5lb less than official rating
Don Poli           4lb less
Carlingford Lough  3lb less
Road To Riches     2lb less
The Last Samurai   rating untouched
So they would carry 11st 10 lbs making OR of 137 on the 10 stone mark.

more of that 55,s on here so great shout jb

vlr into 20 in places

11-01 for More Of That

Speculative flutter on Wounded Warrior @ 100 - was a very decent novice two seasons ago and is potentially very well treated.

vieux lion rouge is now fav after good win at haydock happy days

Will he stay the National trip? Maybe only thing stopping him winning. Becher Chase runners will be hopeful after that.

not sure sd but has to have a big chance if he does

outlander, empire of dirt and don poli all pulled due to weights compresion

11st 10lb Outlander, 11-9 Champagne West,
11-8 Empire Of Dirt, 11-7 Don Poli,
11-6 Carlingford Lough, 11-5 The Last Samuri,
11-4 Alary, 11-3 Alelchi Inois, 11-2 Minella Rocco,
11-1 Devils Bride, More Of That,
11-0 Lord Scoundrel, Perfect Candidate, Saphir Du Rheu, Shantou Flyer
10-13 Road To Riches, Sausalito Sunrise,
10-12 Carole’s Destrier, Clarcam, Foxrock, Roi Des Francs,
10-11 Wonderful Charm, Wounded Warrior,
10-10 Blaklion, Drop Out Joe, Tenor Nivernais,Tiger Roll
10-9 A Toi Phil, Le Mercurey, The Game Changer
10-8 Cause Of Causes, Maggio, Regal Encore, The Young Master
10-7, Definitly Red, Double Shuffle, Houblon Des Obeaux, Pleasant Company, Ucello Conti, Vieux Lion Rouge,
10-6 Ballynagour, Highland Lodge, Junction Fourteen, O’Faolains Boy, One For Arthur, Vivaldi Collonges,
10-5 Bishops Road, Lord Windermere, Saint Are, Vicente, Vics Canvas, Ziga Boy
10-4 Just A Par, Measureofmydreams, Raz De Maree, Stellar Notion,
10-3 As De Mee, Cocktails At Dawn, Pendra, Rogue Angel, Seventh Sky, Shutthefrontdoor,
10-2 Gas Line Boy, Goodtoknow, The Romford Pele, Thunder And Roses, Triolo D’Alene, Vieux Morvan,
10-1 Doctor Harper, Gallant Oscar, La Vaticane,
10-0 Bless The Wings, Tour Des Champs,
9-13 Knock House, 9-12 Hadrian’s Approach,
9-11 Benbens, Potters Cross, Sambremont, Straidnahanna, Viva Steve,
9-10 Cloudy Too, Lamb Or Cod, Milansbar, Polidam,
9-9 Dromnea, Streets Of Promise, Vyta Du Roc,
9-8 Beeves, Royale Knight,
9-7 Alfie Spinner, Emperor’s Choice, Goulanes, Lessons In Milan, Mountain King, Out Sam, Sizing Coal,
9-6 Dare To Endeavour, Father Edward, Samingarry, Silver Man,
9-5 Alvarado, Milborough,
9-4 The Crafty Butcher, Waldorf Salad,
9-3 Katenko, 9-2 Federici,
9-1 Gone Too Far, Racing Pulse, 9-0 Killer Crow

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If he pulls Don Poli he is cutting off his nose to spite his face. The horse is not that badly treated.
However he does has several better handicapped horses in there.

Someone find his dummy

yes pretty hacked off!!!

Pretty encouraging run in the Gold Cup from More of That. Seemingly jumped well throughout, got done for a little pace coming around the corner and stayed on nicely up the hill. Next stop Aintree!

don't like that more of that horse if i'm honest. don't think he's really done much over fences but has had plenty of chances.

lovely run from minella rocco. stayed on so powerfully up the hill that you'd have to think he's made for aintree and four miles. big horse as well so shouldn't have any problems getting around, even if he fell last time he was at the track. much more lightly raced than some.

Seem to remember More of That giving Mite Bight a good old hiding last season around Cheltenham. Since doing a blood vessel in last years RSA, he has either been campaigned over inadequate trips or ran particularly well in Grade 1s (Lexus & The Gold Cup). I dont necessarily think he has a better chance than Minella Rocco for the reasons you've stated, but il more than happily roll the dice with my 220s

well 220s is pretty good,

think might bite improved a lot since then. that was his first run over fences. for me more of that gone backwards over fences since last season.

they must be gutted they didn't leave tiger roll in off 152 looks a very feasible mark now does it not?

cause of causes is an interesting runner post cheltenham and now they don't have to drop him out, also gives them more options in the big race itself...likely to come forward for the run he was tailed in ap mccoys last national before staying on, make what you will of that run but he has to be of interest here after jumping really well that day...elliott prepped his only other winner in the cross country silver birch and this fellow surely has to be a player

minello rocco obviously comes into the reckoning as well, after finishing second in the gold cup but 10/1 is tight

as always a brutal race to fathom with the normal gatlin gun approach needed i would of thought

@JonjoONeill- Minella Rocco has been taken out of the Grand National this morning. He's absolutely fine and we'll aim him at the Gold Cup again next year.

@JonjoONeill- More Of That came out of the Gold Cup well and will now head to Aintree for the National.

@JonjoONeill- Shutthefrontdoor has also been taken out of the Grand National and will head for the Irish Grand National next month.

Basically 2 weeks to go and here are my picks

Vieux Lion Rouge 66/1 backed before the Becher.
Definitly Red 80/1 on here.
Houblon Des Obeaux 100/1 on here. Layed off my stake.
Bishops Road 90/1 on here.
Double Shuffle 320/1 on here.  Layed off my stake.
Regal Encore 320/1 on here. Layed off my stake.

Since Cheltenham I added
Pendra 50/1 nrnb
Bless The Wings 100/1 NRNB but doubt he'll get in.

If it goes really soft I will back Raz De Maree also.

Having said all of this my biggest bet was on Three Faces West and that's gone, however I can't complain getting so many to the race.  Will need to have eyes in the back of my head to keep up with this lot.


Wish I had More Of That at 220.

not going to be soft

Unless there's overuse ( as usual) of the hose pipe !!

nah be same as chelters good to soft good in places I reckon

One I am beginning to really like is Stellar Notion  {Current price 80-1 on the exchange}

This season it has run in 3 major staying handicap chases : (1) Munster National (2) PP Handicap at Leopardstown over Xmas (3) Leopardstown Handicap Grade A chase:

1- Munster National - Stellar Notion (SN) was 2nd to Tiger Roll who has since come out and  demonstrated his staying class in winning the 4 miler at the festival. In this SN pulled 3 lengths clear of the third who was  again 7 lengths clear of the 4th. The third, Kylecrue has run more than respectively since, most notably in the same Leopardstown chase as SN when fishing 6th.
2- PP Handicap - 4th of 28 behind Noble Endeavour, Crafty Butcher & Oscar Knight. Horses SN beat include, Rogue Trade, Rogue Angel, Ucello Conti, Bless The Wings, Tennis Cap, Cause of Causes, Galant Oscar, Thunder & Roses, Captain Von Trappe. **Note he was giving weight to the 2nd and 3rd. With Noble Endeavour coming out and having run impressively at the Festival in the ULTIMA and since being made joint fav for the Irish national, I cannot imagine SN claims have been un-enhanced.
3- Leopardstown Handicap Grade A- 2 of 18. A Neck behind A Toi Phil, who has since come out and won albeit a questionable grade 2, but grade 2 none the less.

For me, fundamentally, he has placed over 3 miles, but will be stepping up in trip which is an unknown for any horse. Will he appreciate it? Will he not? There is only one way to find out.  Being number 39 he will definitely run should all be well, he is running off 10 stone 8 and should have last years winner David Mullins aboard. The large majority of his form is on good ground. For me absolutely no negatives there at all. Personally for me the only query about Stellar Notion is whether he will get 4 miles, but being by presenting  (sire of No More Heroes, On his Own, First lieutenant, War of Attrition, Denman, Ballabrigs, Yorkhill, Rogue Angel, Snow Falcon), one would assume there is a chance he will get 4 miles. And at 80-1, I'm more than happy to chance this.

nice write up jb ill have a slice with you

Cheers Dragon. In other news Barry G been booked for More of That after schooling him today. It's all coming together!

where is the link for that jb23 in regards barry?

yes im on more of that also at 80s into 20 now

https://twitter.com/rp_tv/status/847770958534516736

Don't know if that works- I'm on my phone! But if not, Racing Post Twitter

Hmm!  Anyone got any stats. for BG rides n Handicap Chases in the last couple of seasons ?

Delighted Geraghty on more of that as I was hoping J.J. would ride Cause of Causes.

Narrowed it down to 3 - More of That - looks like it will stay and has a touch of class, Cause of Causes - has no negatives that I can see and if it runs Wounded Warrior - a leap of faith I know but some of its old form is of the very highest quality. I listened to the interview Scudamore did with the BBC about Vieux Lion Rouge and he is convinced that it is a vastly improved horse this season but I would still be worried about its jumping and I am not sure it is quite good enough for this. Good luck to all and please god all the competitors come back safe.

yes i think c of c is the danger to my selections , i hope mrs dragon or one of the kids picks it

Facts    25 Mar 17 09:23 
Unless there's overuse ( as usual) of the hose pipe !!

The Dragon    25 Mar 17 09:29 
nah be same as chelters good to soft good in places I reckon


No rain in the long range forecast for next week.
Consequently, as usual, and fearful of the ' cruelty brigade' the clerk of the course will be liberally sluicing the course.

What's the betting this will a complete bodge job and the going will be a mess ?

current going soft on national course shouldn't be a need to water should be perfect

Vieux lion rouge looks very solid for the pipes. Didn't get home last year but as the jockey said he wasn't finishing his races.

Not convinced Ireland have got anything this year. The mullins horse pleasant company surely won't get home in a horse box. Not convinced about more or that or one for Arthur, and the last samurai surely got far too much weight.

Pleasant company,won over 3m1f on good and heavy ground,taking lead on the run in! only 6 times in a chase, room for improvement/scope, ridden by a genius,why would he need a horse box??

There does not appear to be much interest in the race this year.

Carlingford Lough, Alelechi Inois, Foxrock, Maggio, Ziga Boy, The Romford Pele, Straidnahainna, Sizing Coal & Vics Canvas are the 9 taken out of The National today.  Final Decs on Thursday.

money coming for more of that good chance it will go off fav come race time

j j oneil 5or 6 1st 2nd favs on monday all beaten,

Can't see it figuring myself

the grand national seems to always be won by a horse with a nice name.

that rules out

horses like gas line boy, raz du maree, double shuffle and other ordinary named horses

but brings in elegantly named types like: vieux lion rouge, the last samuri etc.

Lewisham I think you need a rethink.

Surely if Pineau De Re was able to win then Raz De Maree & Saphir Du Rheu MUST be on your short list.  i appreciate however, that Houblon Des Obeaux does have too many letters??

number of letters is irrelevant. does houblon des obeaux sound like a national winner to you? not to me.

saphir du rheu possibly too much weight/doubt he would get the trip

actually one of the things I've noticed over recent seasons (say the last 7-8 years) is that the sire stamina index of winners, ie average winning distance of progeny has come way down. it used to be you needed a very slow sort of horse to win a national, a real plodder, but those days are long gone. nowadays the old style national types tend to get lapped.

there are still plenty of non-stayers every year though. Basically you need a horse that will stay and jump, plus also have plenty of cruising speed to lay up with them. The last samuri would be ideal in this aspect, but he possibly has too much weight. The stamina issue would be the worry for me with vieux lion rouge, does he really stay 4 miles 4? his sire index is quite low. another one I might be tempted to rule out on that basis alone is stellar notion, as the stamina index of his damsire, is rather on the lowside.

starting to lean towards one for Arthur after initially being against the horse

seems to score well on several important categories

firstly name isn't too bad

secondly stamina

thirdly jumping, it's a huge horse and should get around

fourth weight

people talk about more of that being on a good mark which is quite possibly true but it still has to lug around well over 11 stones around 4 miles 4, and finish in front of everything else in the field, which is not easy for a horse that has had a wind operation and hasn't won a staying chase all season, and in general form seems to be on the downturn. Same with the kim bailey horse, it's quite small for a horse that has to carry such a weight. I do think that weight is important in a national.

the only thing I would mark one for Arthur down on is age, eight year olds don't tend to win very often (last winner was bindaree?)

although to be honest this is the one national I can recall where I don't have a strong fancy, someone said earlier in the thread that there's a lack of interest this year, easy to see why, it's an absolute head scratcher, even more than usual. could see an upset brewing ala mon mome.

I think the other thing that impresses me with one for Arthur is how far he has had to come from behind in his races. I know I have mentioned cruising speed in the national but most plodders who are held up just stay in that position, but this one has managed to come through entire fields. 4 mile 4 should be absolutely ideal for him.

Many Clouds was only 8 LR which is a positive for you.  There are loads with chances in this and many with Pos & Neg aspects. Definitly Red has a cracking Grand National name.

My 4 against the field :-

The Last Samuri
Definitely Red
One For Arthur
Vieux Lion Rouge

I don't like definitely red as a name

even the way it's spelt

Think if rain stays away the money will continue to come for More Of That.. JP fancies it!!

lewisham ranger you keep saying 4mile 4

it is run over 4m2f74y hope this helps in you're search for a horse with a nice name

Facts    02 Apr 17 10:28 
Facts    25 Mar 17 09:23 
Unless there's overuse ( as usual) of the hose pipe !!

The Dragon    25 Mar 17 09:29 
nah be same as chelters good to soft good in places I reckon


No rain in the long range forecast for next week.
Consequently, as usual, and fearful of the ' cruelty brigade' the clerk of the course will be liberally sluicing the course.

What's the betting this will a complete bodge job and the going will be a mess ?



From today's Horse Racing Forum :-

GOING Hurdle course - GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places); Mildmay course - GOOD (Good to soft in places); National course - GOOD TO SOFT (GoingStick: Mildmay 6.7, Hurdle 6.8, National 5.7) (Watered) (Sunny)

I know weather is going to be good (allegedly) but already watering with a going stick of 5.7. It's unlikely to be anything other than SOFT on Saturday.

My four against the field are

BLACKLION - Will love the ground think he will perform considerably better - RSA Chase winner... real class act in the field. Still very young and unlike horses like Lord Windermere.. who have won the Gold Cup but on the downgrade. This horse is on the up.
PENDRA
DEFINATELY RED
SAPHIR DE RHEU

Think the ground will result in a more classier horse winning this than a run of the mill handicapper

I would be amazed if there in no '' soft '' in the going Saturday - it is just not worth the risk to give the do-gooder types an excuse to whine. In my opinion if we assume the Irish horses currently have a bit of an edge on the handicapping front and it is my belief that this year you need something that can be near the pace then the two most likely for me are Stellar Notion ( given an excellent write up above by Jb23 ) and Wounded Warrior. I like Cause of Causes but keeping in touch over the first few is a bit of a nagging doubt.

Antepost

Wounder Warrior @ 100/1. plus a few bits at 130 and 150.

Since the final decs:

Blacklion @ 14/1 (would be favourite in my book)

Doctor Harper @ 100/1'ish? - just waiting for Betfairs day of race market to be formed.

Class is starting to tell in this race, look for a Gold Cup winner and a multiple G1 participant, ...............look, there's one..............Oh, my Lord, could it win in here?? This is a race for the mug punter and a euro each way bit of fun for me. I usually do bookie for the house bets and I usually win the lot.

lewisham ranger
Date Joined:    08 Aug 02
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04 Apr 17 09:24 Joined: 08 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 1,895 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
number of letters is irrelevant. does houblon des obeaux sound like a national winner to you? not to me.

all aboard this year's money tree like bet

I have backed several (and 4 losers already) with Blaklion 50/1 and Drop Out Joe 150 being my most promising prospects.
But I taken a punt at Ballynagour. He is definitely the best handicapped runner and probably the least reliable. A Spring horse who will go on the ground , if he decides to go at all.

doesnt get 3 mile in an oxygen tent ,never mind 4 and a quarter does he

Which one shithead?

Why the language ? This is a respectable forum !!

I've been reliably informed money tree has four lays in this.

BALLYNAGOUR,doesnt get 3 miles

Rogue Angel

charlton, aren't you the same clueless poster who tried to mock me when I said that minding was a certainty for the oaks?

don't throw stones in glass houses son.

Rogue Angel
Ballynagour
Measureofmydreams
The Young Master

My final 4 against the field......

Good luck everyone!

my 3
Ballynagour 110
Perfect Candidate 70
Ucello Conti 22(all on here)

   GL ALL.
lets hope they all come back.

Not spreading the net too wide today. Backed Blaklion and Saint Are both each way.Also backing One for Arthur.

Good result

Well done Arthur winners...

Thanks Iris.
He was so far back, I'd written him off. Brilliantly ridden.

He jumped superbly, especially the Canal Turn second time. The fences may be smaller/softer but it is good to see a great jumper win this race

yeah watched the replays - couldn't believe how far back he was... your not supposed to win nationals that far back... but great jockey to hold it so well...