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Madhu
04 Sep 16 12:56
Joined:
Date Joined: 04 Aug 06
| Topic/replies: 817 | Blogger: Madhu's blog
This is one of my favourite handicaps of the year alongside the Ebor and Cesarewitch. Last year my three arrows were My Dream Boat (BF odds 40.64), Man of Harlech (40.22) and Portage (18.1) (and a small punt on Cymro (57.88, scratched)).

Key statistics for me are-
Weight between 8-7 and 9-3, an OR rating between 95 to 104, had won or placed at class 2 or higher, and had won a race with 13+ runners.

My two arrows this year are the progressive and consistent David O'Meara 4yo Lope De Vega gelding Treasury Notes (BF odds 30.52) and the Richard Fahey 3yo Dolphin Vista (54.81) (hope lightning strikes twice for the Musley Bank Stables, and that Frankie Dettori rides him).
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Report Facts September 20, 2016 12:02 PM BST
Nightfly


Same - re Portage ! Happy
Report Nightfly September 20, 2016 12:04 PM BST
Thats no problem..i will do PJ.
I neither get involved in cross talk in the 14 years on here,,i might be many things.
But i am not 'A Mug'
Have a nice day and am off to play some golf.
Report Fabulous September 20, 2016 12:15 PM BST
Decided to add Bronze Angel at 25's ew 5 places, and 42's to 44's on here, to go along with original 2 selections. Now just to hope they all make it.
Report PJay September 20, 2016 12:21 PM BST
I didn't call you a mug at any stage of course, I merely argued the fact.

pipedreamer mentioned 22/1 about a 4/1 shot which to be fair would be a good shout for bet of the year. Sacred Act is 10/1 fav today for the Cambridgeshire and you clearly think that that is a huge price and *potentially* one of the biggest bookmaker mistakes of the year. We all have different opinions. 

Still working on it myself and will be until Friday and will be delighted if I find as much confidence about one.
Report PJay September 20, 2016 12:23 PM BST

Sep 20, 2016 -- 6:15AM, Fabulous wrote:


Decided to add Bronze Angel at 25's ew 5 places, and 42's to 44's on here, to go along with original 2 selections. Now just to hope they all make it.


Was there any word on why he hasn't run since April? Couldn't find anything myself.

Report Fabulous September 20, 2016 12:26 PM BST
I had a look myself PJay, but no joy. Obviously being declared at 5 day decs is a good sign, but just have a niggling feeling he won't go, but had to take a chance at those prices.

His absence is a concern though, as he's usually a fairly busy horse.
Report PJay September 20, 2016 12:31 PM BST
I'm sure he was targeted at it all year Fabulous so there's little doubt against him running here if he's fit and ready. I think he ran a bit too much last year (before this) but still the absence is a bit of a question. It might become clearer before the weekend when a few interviews are out.
Report Fabulous September 20, 2016 12:39 PM BST
Hope so Pjay, I'll be keeping my eyes peeled for any news. Everything crossed, as I think he's a fair price.
Report PJay September 20, 2016 1:15 PM BST
Here you go Fabulous.

Tregoning re Bronze Angel in yesterday's paper: ‘He has not been injured but we turned him away when the horses were not right in the Spring. He has been working well and is in great shape but it will not be easy against younger, improving horses.’
Report Fabulous September 20, 2016 4:22 PM BST
Great news, thanks Pjay.

A win for him or Dolphin Vista would be very welcome, got that bet on Spark Plug as well, but not as much on as the other 2.
Report Nightfly September 20, 2016 7:19 PM BST
I didn't call you a mug at any stage of course, I merely argued the fact. what a pile of jibberish.. how old are 6?
I merely argued the fact..what fact? Donut.
How does that become a fact..if you merely argued the fact' what palpable nonsense
i can tell form your text you are a winde up and clearly want to have the last word
you are a muppet.
you cannot 'merely argued the fact'
comment is of course but facts are sacred
Report thegibbons September 20, 2016 7:57 PM BST
went through the form and
EDDYSTONE ROCK @ 16s is still
an ok bet 365 5pl.
Report deepingfox September 20, 2016 8:12 PM BST
Gone in on VERY TALENTED at 25/1 last night. Bottom of the handicap 8st 7lb. Verl lightly raced. Could be group class, could blow out. Liked the odds to gind out.
Report deepingfox September 20, 2016 8:12 PM BST
Find out not Gind out. Got excited that Foxes are beating Chelsea.
Report ReaseHeath September 20, 2016 9:11 PM BST
Good thread, it does look like Sacred Act will start a short priced favourite, fair enough if you've got double figure prices but I'd be more in the Frankie camp than the punter camp at the present prices. I also would n't be surprised if something else was heavily backed against him on the day - Captain Colby (the winner!) was all the rage for the Portland the other week but on the day Red Pike was backed in from 20/1 in the morning to 6/1J at the off (before bombing out!).

I'll wait until the final decs as per - the two of most interest to me at first glance are Examiner who has continued to progress since finishing 3rd in the race last year at a big price, issues with him are that his best form is with cut in the ground which it does n't look like he'll get and, like Bronze Angel, he's been off for a long while and I'm not sure why - it could be they've just been waiting for softer ground at the back end of the season.

One who will appreciate quicker going is Celestial Path who is back on the Rowley Mile for the first time since he finished 5th in last year's 2000 Guineas, he'd have a great chance if he could replicate his run in the John Smith's Cup at York where he finished 2nd despite being drawn wide - his two runs since have n't been so good although you'd forgive most horses a poor showing at Goodwood (it was n't that bad!) and perhaps the ground went against him back at York in the Strensall Stakes which would be a deep enough race anyway. This will only be his third run in a handicap.   

Of the others, the early booking of Ryan Moore for Bravo Solo catches the eye and Daily Bulletin (Gosden) and Great Order both for Godolphin look like unexposed 3yos who could be dangerous if they get in. I assume the field size limit is still 35.
Report Madhu September 20, 2016 9:52 PM BST
Treasury Notes chances against the likely favourite in Sacred Act


Sacred Act won his first race, first time out as a 3yo at the start of April 2014 in a poor maiden at Nottingham and then ten days later was a beaten 6/4fav in the Sandown Esher Cup but never ran again that year. Funnily enough he only ran twice in Class 3 mile handicaps the following year at more or less the exact monthly time period, and in the latter race last April was not beaten far by another lightly-raced then 91 rated 4yo Lightning Spear (won first-time out at 2, 3,4yo – obviously a pattern race performer now) but he was yet again unsighted thereafter until the aforementioned Sandown Class 3 10 runner 8f event just under 2 weeks ago where he was-

Slowly away, held up in last, progress on inner over 2f out, going easily but nowhere to go over 1f out to 150yds out, quickened smartly when in the clear to pass several rivals last 100yds, led post. (First time after being gelded as well)

Looked at the race, very impressive but Frankie Dettori has today been quoted as expressing doubts over the horse's chances-. "He's a nice horse but if I had to be critical I would say he lacks the experience of those well-seasoned handicappers, and he has the draw and the pace and so on to negotiate."

While the crookmakers are ‘reporting such considerable support for the horse they have now been forced to cut into their outright market leader.’

Spokesman Paul Binfield said: "The gamble on Sacred Act is becoming reminiscent of those on John Gosden's Halling and Pipedreamer and, if this weight of money continues, the recent Sandown winner could well go off at around 5-1."

RP are also spewing out this twaddle-

With Lightning Spear now a Group 2 winner, and Sacred Act carrying just a 4lb penalty for his recent Sandown win - meaning he is officially 3lb well-in having been raised to a mark of 96 - it is easy to see why punters have latched onto the five-year-old, even if Dettori has his doubts.

Give me a bloody break from this tripe. There is almost nothing in this horse’s profile that is in common with Pipedreamer and Halling. It may be that as a now gelded 5yo with his problems behind him he becomes the wise nodders ‘Towser Gosden plot’ but right now he looks like bookies benefit horse that will surely ‘bounce’ in this highly competitive 9f cavalry charge.

Experience of a big field is a massive bonus, almost all of the winners in recent past had already won a race with 13+ runners, sure Third Time Lucky hadn’t but he went close 2 races back in a big field at Goodwood. Sacred Act has spent most his time on the gallops, he will be well pissed off because of the lack of  females to peruse minus his tackle in the parade ring and after feeling morose on the way to the start, the actual race will frighten the kin life out him.

My confidence in Treasury Notes has grown and grown over the forfeit stages, even more so, with his ‘more’ fancied stablemate being withdrawn. The Cambridgeshire Handicap is all down to luck in running and if there is such a thing as a lucky horse this year, it’s this one, as he somehow always gets himself out of trouble and finishes strong.  He has won 5 from 11 starts with David O’Meara so far and he looks an ideal type for the race and although I was worried a bit about the overall form of the stable, they have had 4 winners in the last few days. Good luck all.
Report Facts September 20, 2016 10:06 PM BST
What Sacred Act has demonstrated ,( that he has in common with Pipedreamer,) is the ability to quicken at the very end of a race. Not to be confused with running through beaten horses, but actually  quickening.
Very lightly raced horse, obvious ability. Could be anything .Potentially thrown in at the weights.
Gosden' s fourth winner of the race ?
Report penzance September 20, 2016 10:11 PM BST
backed American Artist 55s W & 8s Pl.
   GL ALL
Report KipperRSA September 20, 2016 10:11 PM BST
Really not seeing the value in Treasury Notes myself, surged up the handicap for winning low value races against the outsiders in this race who are all on much more favourable terms. Would have him at around 33/1 myself....
Report Facts September 20, 2016 10:15 PM BST
Glad to see Ryan 's back on Bravo Solo. Only beaten a neck in The Lincoln, racing on the ' wrong' side of the track.
Report Facts September 20, 2016 10:17 PM BST
Bravo Zolo
Report KipperRSA September 20, 2016 10:18 PM BST
Agree Facts, in my portfolio....Sacred Act, Bravo Zolo, Banksea, American Artist
Report Facts September 20, 2016 10:20 PM BST
Happy
Report pipedreamer September 21, 2016 4:41 PM BST
Secret Act won well at Sandown,but you don't prep horse for this race at Sandown.It tells you nothing.It's a totally different track.
Many winners in even big fields at this track have come unstuck in this race [Grand Passion].He has won at Nottingham,and it seemed that he liked the long straight there.So it's a predicament.The biggest worry i feel is the pedigree,too many sprinters and milers,tho like Credit Swop it can be overcome,but not too often.
Because of the change in handicaps lately [4 to 5 years] stats are there to be broken.
And The winner last year became only the fourth i think to break the main stat since 1983.Also in using that time frame it's important to note that if your horse has run this year, how has it done?.
One comment i don't agree with and i even heard a trainer say this the other year,is that you need luck in running in this race.Statistically in these type of races percentage-wise virtually all horses get a clear run.I posted this fact before Prince Of Johanne won the race,a race in which the whole field came over to the stands side causing carnage.The only other time they did that was in 1992 after a deluge of rain of monsoon proportions.Why they chose to do it again when there was no rain is a mystery.It was a blip in the stats.To come from behind and between horses and win is ok but in this race you need a horse that can win from coming wide of the pack to win,or to win leading at the furlong pole and with no horses near him or in vision,then go on to win by a nice distance between second and if possible the third as well.
3 Year olds can run unplaced in this race and win it the next year,but since at least 1983,4 year olds and older that ran unplaced in this do not win it when they try again.The only exception was Supaseus.
Since 1972 only 3 5 year olds have won this,all since 2010 !!!.I wouldn't put people off Secret Act,he has a nice weight,but for me just not enough pluses.I agree that Treasury Notes is one to consider.
Report pipedreamer September 21, 2016 4:45 PM BST
To be clear,SANDOWN winners e.g. [Grand Passion] don't do well in the Cambs stat wise.Likewise Kempton [before it went all-weather].
Report lewisham ranger September 21, 2016 5:13 PM BST
Watched a race at lingfield where secret act lost to a very good horse but seemed to flatten out in the final furlong. Slightly concerning especially if there's some rain.
Report lewisham ranger September 21, 2016 5:16 PM BST
I like Very Talented. Just liked the way he galloped when he won at Doncaster last year. Although my record in these big handicaps is horrendous so ignore me Sad
Report Madhu September 21, 2016 5:25 PM BST
Respectfully pipedreamer, luck in running to me is not determined by having a clear run, it also includes positioning and the draw and how the race pans out on the day, therefore, the Cambridgeshire Handicap is without doubt all down to luck in running.

luck  (lŭk)
n.
1. The chance happening of fortunate or adverse events; fortune:
Report Facts September 21, 2016 6:38 PM BST
Maybe not Sandown win a prep for the Cambridgeshire. But horses win at Sandown and Newmarket.
Pipedreamer was one such example.
Report Flashy September 21, 2016 6:43 PM BST
Is Secret Act going to run? Worrying it is being matched at big prices....
Report KipperRSA September 21, 2016 6:44 PM BST
Sandown is the joint second track to have a prep race for this race statistically speak with 1 winner and 4 placed from 26.......hardly a negative....
Report Flashy September 21, 2016 6:46 PM BST
I meant Sacred Act....cant be running
Report BennyBinion1 September 21, 2016 6:57 PM BST
About to be pulled out
Report Madhu September 21, 2016 7:04 PM BST
John Gosden says Betfred Cambridgeshire favourite Sacred Act is stiff behind and probably WILL NOT be declared for the race.All over Twitter. Bet of the year? Compete tripe.
Report Facts September 21, 2016 8:00 PM BST
Such is racing !

All eggs  on Bravo Zolo then
Report layingisthewayforward September 21, 2016 8:26 PM BST
Unlucky backers,
Report pipedreamer September 21, 2016 8:39 PM BST
Madhu,i meant that these races have few bad luck stories,many a time you can have a 6 runner race and two of them have to wait to get out with their horses to get a run,so percentage wise this race is fair.Take the Lincoln, Royal Hunt Cup and this race,and have a look how many in the past got interference.
Facts,Pipedreamer did not win at Newmarket prior to his win in the Cambs,he won at Sandown and was one of the EXCEPTIONS,he also won at Goodwood another negative track.By this i mean that horses that only win at Goodwood type tracks don't win the Cambs.Pipedreamer ran at Newbury and Newmarket and didn't win there,which is an example of where he should have won.I'm sorry but your example is actually an exception.
I used the wrong word in prep.what i meant was that if as a trainer you want to know if your horse can win this race, to find out by running it at Sandown,nor for the matter Ascot on the round course is not i think a good idea.
As for Sandown being a good place to PREP a horse for this race.1 out of 26 aint a good stat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.30 out of the last 34 years for example is!!!
Report Madhu September 21, 2016 8:53 PM BST
Respectfully pipedreamer without getting pedantic old chap, Portage in the race last year was a bad luck story that has nothing to do with getting a clear run.
Report pipedreamer September 21, 2016 11:56 PM BST
Madhu,didn't Educate move over late on to challenge the leader on the stands side?,and win?You are correct,if you are on the wrong side there's a problem.But we were talking about luck in running, which is mostly always referred to when talking about whether a  horse gets a clear run.Your assertion is a different matter.
I suppose "luck in running" comes into it draw-wise,and i can see your point ,but it was quite clear what i was referring to.Anyway the prices are better in this.Good luck to anybody punting in 6 runner race ,where the stalls are right up against a rail,where they crawl and do a 2 furlong sprint and get in each others way.Anybody remember Park Top,well ok Bosra Sham [Jockeys Fault?],the list is of endless nightmares of short priced horses getting in all sorts of trouble.
Report Madhu September 22, 2016 2:18 AM BST
Respectfully pipedreamer, your donnish posts are getting a bit irritating. You say-

But we were talking about luck in running, which is mostly always referred to when talking about whether a horse gets a clear run.Your assertion is a different matter. I suppose "luck in running" comes into it draw-wise,and i can see your point ,but it was quite clear what i was referring to.

pipedreamer I know exactly what you are emphasising and referring to, as in, an unfortunate horse having found no luck in-running.

When I stated the Cambridgeshire Handicap is all down to luck in running I certainly did not expect luck in running would be understood as solely or inclusively meaning whether a horse will get clear running room during a 9f cavalry charge spread right across Newmarket Heath. I do not envisage a shambles on Saturday.

For clarity, since the big fields in the Cambridgeshire Handicap ordinarily split into groups; where the speed of the race is, whether the jockey manages to get them settled in behind horses, where the best going is, can all become determining factors in the luck in running during the race. It therefore goes without saying, all horses that have managed to win the Cambridgeshire Handicap, have won through luck in running when it fell their way.
Report Facts September 22, 2016 3:24 AM BST
It therefore goes without saying, all horses that have managed to win the Cambridgeshire Handicap, have won through luck in running when it fell their way.

In other words, all winners of The Cambridgeshire have been lucky to win ?
Nonsense. The odd one has been ' lucky' to get his head in front on the line. The majority win strictly on merit.
Report IrisDeBalme September 22, 2016 6:31 AM BST
Looks like SACRED ACT is a likely non-runner

Shame that as we never got to see...
Report IrisDeBalme September 22, 2016 7:06 AM BST
Well Gosden must be kicking himself he took Dommerson out in the 5 day decs...

Thought he had a good chance...
Report Can't Catch Me September 22, 2016 7:51 AM BST
Two bets for me.

The Suffolk Stakes over course and distance earlier in the season looked a fairly strong renewal, and the first and second home that day Knight Owl and Examiner both look pretty solid at 20/1 each.
Report ReaseHeath September 22, 2016 10:36 AM BST
Gosden still has Daily Bulletin for Godolphin with a chance of getting in. Eddystone Rock now a non runner due to unsatisfactory scope according to Johnny Murtagh on Twitter.
Report ReaseHeath September 22, 2016 11:20 AM BST
^and GM Hopkins of course - now ridden by Ryan Moore with Frankie switching to Bravo Zolo
Report dunlaying September 22, 2016 12:27 PM BST
My short list is as long as your arm but Very Talented has to have a first rate chance. The trip is a worry though. For an e/w flutter what about Ginger Jack? Well handicapped , should have his ground and comes here in good heart. 50/1 looks reasonable. Ode To Evening is another outsider worthy of a look.
Report pipedreamer September 22, 2016 12:31 PM BST
Madhu i do  appologise,i realise i was being pedantic!!,and knew after posting it that i would have to come back and clarify,it's semantics really,the Draw does of course come into it.I would say one thing more,is that like in The National you need a horse that is going well enough to sidestep fallers,in the Cambs etc you need a horse that can go through gaps WHEN ASKED TO,and can even come through without the need to come through with another horse that the jockey was tracking,or can challenge wide of the pack.
In other words a horse that can make his own luck so to speak.You need a specific type of horse to win this,and a large majority of the winners of this race fall into this category.Tho of course not all!!!.
Report pipedreamer September 22, 2016 12:37 PM BST
Madhu,i should have realised that i should have left out the Exclamation marks,it looks sarcastic.
Its not mean't to be.Sometimes things read different reading it back to what you intend.Everybody has a point to make and needs to be heard.I look forward to your comments about the Ces.Good luck in this race.You certainly have a good chance with your selection.
Report Facts September 22, 2016 1:08 PM BST
Interesting that with the defection of Sacred Act,  Frankie's now riding Bravo Zolo and Ryan switched to another Gosden runner.
I wonder which trainer ' claimed' who ?
Report Madhu September 22, 2016 1:23 PM BST
I think we know where we are at pipedreamer. Sorry for being brusque. I originally meant a more broad view of the luck in running.  It is bad luck that on the lead up to the race two of the fancied horses are now not running, but you have to have luck in running to get there on the day, and in the luck in running during the race, and in reference to Facts comment- ' lucky' to get his head in front on the line. The majority win strictly on merit- from the point of entry to crossing the line in front, it all transpired when it fell their way.
Report ReaseHeath September 22, 2016 2:03 PM BST

Sep 22, 2016 -- 7:08AM, Facts wrote:


Interesting that with the defection of Sacred Act,  Frankie's now riding Bravo Zolo and Ryan switched to another Gosden runner.I wonder which trainer ' claimed' who ?


My take - which is little more than guesswork admittedly - is that once the fav defected Frankie wanted to ride Bravo Zolo and Noseda wanted him (seems to ride the majority of Noseda's when they have a big chance, only forfeited the ride on Nemoralia to Spencer because he could n't do the weight), probably RM's choices were limited at that point 'cos most of the other rides were taken so Gosden was happy to let Frankie off knowing he could get a top class replacement in Moore - and Moore still has a ride in the race. The big hole in this piece of supposition is that RM has ridden Bravo Zolo before but Frankie has n't.

Anyway, I would n't be surprised if Bravo Zolo is the gamble of the race come Saturday morning and goes off favourite.

Report PJay September 22, 2016 3:20 PM BST
Quite happy Sacred Act and Eddystone don't make it. Difficult to fully evaluate those improvers.

Looks like it's going to be pretty quick ground by Saturday.
Report Madhu September 22, 2016 6:12 PM BST
Looking at where the pace is going to be it looks like Bravo Zolo in stall 29 is going to have to lead those drawn high either on the stands side and it is likely he will be making the best of his way home a fair way out and be there to be shot at like in the Lincoln. According to Jeremy Noseda in June, Bravo Zolo had a little bit of a setback following the Lincoln and was having a break but at the beginning of the month stated the Cambridgeshire has been the plan for a while, as well as going straight into the race without prep run but although he is a fine trainer, he has not had a lot of luck over the last couple of years. I got hammered on Sloane Avenue when he was beaten by being ‘given’ the car park draw at Meydan.

I think the top half of the bottom 18 runners or so will track over to the Richard Fahey pair, Third Time Lucky (13) and Dolphin Vista (11), and other possible pacers Very Talented (8) and Ode To Evening (5) further over on the far side. In which case we could have 2 groups either side like when Bronze Angel won in 2014 on good to firm ground.

I couldn’t be happier with Dolphin Vista’s draw and Paul Hanagan riding, and Treasury Notes, a hold-up horse, being just a couple of stalls away from the Fahey pair. Not gained anything ante-post wise but I still think they are good value. Good luck.
Report PJay September 22, 2016 7:18 PM BST
Dolphin Vista disappointed at Sandown at firm and Fahey is always hoping for rain. Looks like it will be pretty firm by Saturday if they don't put on too much water.
Report 1st time poster September 22, 2016 8:03 PM BST
3rd time lucky
american artist
and on the basis the trainers have as much idea as us a few kid ew at 40,s 1st 6 on STIPULATE who,s taking a huge drop in trip,to a far more suitable distance
Report thegibbons September 22, 2016 8:35 PM BST
a bit disappionted that Eddystone rock is gone.
but will have a go with MASTER OFTHE WORLD 18S.
and a bit on STIPULATE 40S
good luck all.Grin
Report sixtwosix September 22, 2016 8:42 PM BST
Celestial Path
Very Talented
Interconnection
Bastille Day
Report sintonian September 22, 2016 8:48 PM BST
Happy with the draw and pace line up for COD. He's bred for it, SBS's horses are flying which is unusual for him and he's still got more to offer having only had 4 runs since joining the yard.
Report KipperRSA September 22, 2016 10:39 PM BST
Pipedreamer....."As for Sandown being a good place to PREP a horse for this race.1 out of 26 aint a good stat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.30 out of the last 34 years for example is!!!".....

Ok then, look at it this way, in the last 19 years there have been 623 runners in the Cambridgeshire with 19 winners and 76 placed horses.  Only 26 of these 623 runners had a prep race at Sandown but it produced a winner and 4 placed horses...16/1 winner and limiting to only 4 places it gave 7/1 25/1 25/1 50/1....I disagree thats a negative as its above average....
Report Madhu September 23, 2016 12:50 AM BST
KipperRSA-

Ok then, look at it this way, in the last 19 years there have been 623 runners in the Cambridgeshire with 19 winners and 76 placed horses.  Only 26 of these 623 runners had a prep race at Sandown but it produced a winner and 4 placed horses...16/1 winner and limiting to only 4 places it gave 7/1 25/1 25/1 50/1....I disagree thats a negative as its above average....

That is complete tripe.
Report PJay September 23, 2016 1:10 AM BST

Sep 22, 2016 -- 4:39PM, KipperRSA wrote:


Pipedreamer....."As for Sandown being a good place to PREP a horse for this race.1 out of 26 aint a good stat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.30 out of the last 34 years for example is!!!".....Ok then, look at it this way, in the last 19 years there have been 623 runners in the Cambridgeshire with 19 winners and 76 placed horses.  Only 26 of these 623 runners had a prep race at Sandown but it produced a winner and 4 placed horses...16/1 winner and limiting to only 4 places it gave 7/1 25/1 25/1 50/1....I disagree thats a negative as its above average....


Laugh If a horse previously ran at Sandown it is more likely to place in the Cambridgeshire than a horse from any other track. Fact! (last 19 years, tracks with >3 examples.) 

People do get caught up with silly stats too much. If you're knocking a horse or even choosing a horse because it ran at Sandown last time then you have issues.

Report Madhu September 23, 2016 1:40 AM BST
PJay how do you copy and paste others posts? Thanks.
Report PJay September 23, 2016 1:55 AM BST
You press the 'Quote' button at the top right of the post.
Report Madhu September 23, 2016 2:08 AM BST
You press the 'Quote' button at the top right of the post? What quote button?
Report sintonian September 23, 2016 6:04 AM BST
In fairness, you want to be siding with a horse who ran at a top level track last time out..e.g Ascot,Sandown,Goodwood, York.
Report unclepuncle September 23, 2016 9:08 AM BST
1pt Erik The Red @ 28 and 0.75pt Examiner @ 21.
With stake savers on Knight Owl and Carry On Deryk.

GL all.
Report PJay September 23, 2016 9:30 AM BST

Sep 22, 2016 -- 8:08PM, Madhu wrote:


You press the 'Quote' button at the top right of the post? What quote button?


THE quote button.

Are you on Classic or New (it should say in top left, I'm on New). Are you on mobile or laptop/desktop?

Report clayfield1 September 23, 2016 10:33 AM BST
Just watched a replay of Third Time Lucky's last race at York,Got to be one of the most unlucky horses of the year, got his ground again and nice draw, Watch the race at York and make your own mind up.
Report PJay September 23, 2016 10:56 AM BST
I'd say it was the plan all year for Third Time Lucky. 5lb higher with a 5lb claimer on to negate it. He doesn't have the benefit of the 3yo allowance this year but if Fahey does have it planned all year he must have little doubt that he'd be able to win it.
Short enough price now though.
Report Millerracing67 September 23, 2016 2:05 PM BST
With my view to the draw, am happy to see my short list of 5 at the mo,  have been drawn in the first 16 boxes.
On g/f ground I like the low to middle draw in the race.
Third Time Lucky 13.
Banksea 14.
Very Talented 8.
Knight Owl 9.
Chil The Kite 3.
From a betting view will need to bring the choice down to 3 :-)
Report Madhu September 23, 2016 3:05 PM BST
Thanks PJay, I did not realise I was on the classic but now I have gone backwards and forwards between classic and new on desktop I have a 2 inch/5th of the kin screen new forum beta ad on the right I can't get rid of!

From 2015 stats for the race-
9 of 10 winners had won a race that year (6 had won 2+ races that season)
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times that year

Third Time Lucky overcame a key stat- won or placed at class 2 or higher, last year and had also run at Thirsk last-time-out, not a top level track either, he just has to turn over a couple more this year.


Richard Fahey-
It should be a good day at Newmarket as we also have Third Time Lucky trying to win the Betfred Cambridgeshire for the second year running.

Even with a couple of notable non-runners, it looks as tough a race as any, and it hasn't been an easy season for the horse as we've been battling a couple of niggly problems with him.

That said, his last run at York was his best effort of the year, we've got Adam McNamara on board to take a bit of extra weight off him and at home I'm as pleased now as I have been at any stage before this season.

The main thing is the ground. A drop of rain would be a big help.
Report SOULDANCER September 23, 2016 5:18 PM BST
THIRD TIME LUCKY 9-1 win, he won it as a 3yo, should have improved as 4yo, same mark, ought to win.
ERIC THE RED 22-1 e.w., got into the habit of running on all too late, often finds trouble. Only the one run on a straight course, bit weird that, but if it helps him he could run on into fifth place. Trainer won the big h'cap last week, so in form.
Report Millerracing67 September 23, 2016 7:45 PM BST
My final 3: Third Time Lucky (hope they put a drop of water on the track overnight, would prefer Gd ground for him)
Banksea will enjoy the fast ground & hopefully pace, stays 10f but has the speed for a mile, not a big fan of the jockey, but he norm does well in these types of races.
Very Talented is the dark horse of the race for me, highly thought of at 2 & early this year at 3, Gd comeback run last time & he's open to a nice bit of improvement.
That's my 3 against the field, Gd luck with your bets lads.
Report ReaseHeath September 23, 2016 8:32 PM BST
just so you know, the CoC (Prosser) said they were n't going to water because the ground still has plenty of moisture in it and they're expecting a heavy dew - the times today were all slower than standard so whilst the ground is probably quick for the time of year I don't think it's going to be midsummer type fast ground.

On the other hand the Going Stick reading this morning was 8.0 versus 7.2 on the morning of the Cambridgeshire last year.
Report PJay September 23, 2016 11:22 PM BST
Jockeys described it as good ground today. It will only disadvantage those who like extremes.
Report Madhu September 24, 2016 2:10 AM BST
Lawd a massi , the kin pill hock [b]Priceunwise has gone for [b]Treasury Notes[/b], it makes me want to almost cry. Mi nuh come yah fi hear ass dead an cow fat but I can only think of doom.[/b]
Report IrisDeBalme September 24, 2016 10:24 AM BST
Was a bit of antepost bloodbath really.. in terms of Sacred Act and Eddystone Rock ... firmament etc... sometimes better to wait for prices on the day

Main bet
Very Talented
Banksea
Bronze Angel

Good Luck.
Report FELTFAIR September 24, 2016 11:23 AM BST
Backed one each from across the draw Zhui Feng, Azraff and Celestial Path. All each way six places.
Report PJay September 24, 2016 1:28 PM BST
Trickiest race for quite a while. Both Godolphin runners could go very well.
Report EastLower Gooner September 24, 2016 2:36 PM BST
Examiner each way 6 places. loves this C&D, looks laid out for this and has the superb Oisin Murphy on board.
Report RozelKid September 24, 2016 4:16 PM BST
Wow betilyerded ! - you get the 1,2 in a 30+ runner hcap  -  top tipping at the prices you had taken
Report RozelKid September 24, 2016 4:18 PM BST
shows you should always stick with your original evaluation
Report RozelKid September 24, 2016 4:18 PM BST
shows you should always stick with your original evaluation
Report Facts September 24, 2016 4:23 PM BST
Great tipping betilyerded! Very well done. 33/1 - brilliant
Report Facts September 24, 2016 4:26 PM BST
A race I'll forget !

Firmament - not declared
Sacred Act - non runner
Brave Zolo - may as well  have stayed in its box.
Report SOULDANCER September 24, 2016 4:32 PM BST
Nice one,betilyerded, pretty amazing stuff
Report sintonian September 24, 2016 5:46 PM BST
Sweet.
Report betilyerded September 24, 2016 6:17 PM BST
Cheers but time to fes up. Didnt get the 33's Spark Plug as it was Pricewised before I got on. In fact only backed it this morning at 14's after Meehans appearance on the Morning Line and not to big stakes.

Main bet was on Carry on Deryk so mixed feelings about the result and also had a bit on Master The World. Very Talented defo the one to take out of it, particularly if they keep him for something like the Hunt Cup next season.

Beer time!
Report Facts September 24, 2016 6:20 PM BST
Shocked
Report Madhu September 24, 2016 7:28 PM BST
Nice one betilyerded, we will leave it to you next year then. Smart call mate.
Report ReaseHeath September 24, 2016 7:36 PM BST
well done, betilyerded - one of the good guys on here
Report betilyerded September 24, 2016 9:07 PM BST
Think its also fair to say that both Sintonian and Unclepuncle were very keen on Carry On Derycks' chances today. Pity it bumped into the plot horse - looked the winner until Mr Fortune spoiled the party.

Next up - the Ces!!
Report PJay September 24, 2016 11:51 PM BST
There's a good handicap at Ascot next week first.


Jockey Kevin Stott felt after the race that Very Talented would have 'won easily' if drawn on the other side, which is a bit of a pain. But a lot can go wrong in these big field handicaps.
Report Fabulous September 25, 2016 12:55 PM BST
Well done one calling the 1,2 Betil Cool
Report ReaseHeath September 25, 2016 3:05 PM BST
Just a footnote on the Cambridgeshire - I compared the Pricewise grid for his antepost preview on 1 September with the grid on the morning of the race.

15 horses featured in both - of those 5 were shorter on the day, 3 were available at the same price and 7 could actually be backed at a bigger price on the morning of the race.

The first thing that should be said is that the ones which were available at bigger prices antepost included the winner (in part surely because he was put up by Segal) and the 4th Third Time Lucky.

On the other hand Celestial Path was as short as 14/1 in a place on 1st September (no bigger than 20/1 elsewhere) but could be backed at 28/1 with 6 places yesterday morning - he did n't run between those two dates.

On 1st September there were still 128 entries and the high profile defections of Sacred Art, Dommersen, Firmament and Eddystone Rock had not yet occurred.

Yesterday morning we knew the going, draw and additional form for September. The number of runners was down to 31 and there were various bookie concessions available. I appreciate this does not tell the whole story as there were many fluctuations in the market between 1st September and yesterday (and indeed before 1st September) but I will take a lot of convincing that you're not generally better off waiting until the day of the race before striking your bet in these big handicaps nowadays.
Report PJay September 25, 2016 3:37 PM BST
Interesting stuff ReaseHeath and it happens every in every big antepost race. There always seems to be a bit of a rush by some people to get on ante-post and far too often you see them getting burned. It isn't wise.
Report Facts September 26, 2016 3:23 AM BST
ReaseHeath

Your last sentence is ambiguous. Are you saying ante post is better. Or are you saying waiting until the day of the race is best ?
Report ReaseHeath September 26, 2016 9:19 AM BST
day of race is better in my opinion Facts - in general
Report IrisDeBalme September 26, 2016 8:25 PM BST
Rally impressive Bertyl - to get that so early - that's a real master class of ante post tipping there... and its not the first time you have done that.  Well done!
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