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betilyerded
14 Jan 16 20:44
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Date Joined: 03 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 817 | Blogger: betilyerded's blog
Devilishly difficult to solve at the best of times but having had a quick look at the entries and prices I have to say my eye is drawn to Sternrubin at 20-1 after his massive effort in the Ladbroke.
The way he rallied after making all at a strong pace to my eye marked him out as a hurdler to follow and given he won over C&D the time before he surely goes here with a big chance despite an 8lb weight hike.
Prominent racers have done well in the race recently and as he is coming into the race at the top of his game Im happy to take the price.

Lots of dangers and plots no doubt but for once Im keeping it simple.

Thoughts?

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Replies: 179
By:
roobuck
When: 14 Jan 16 21:15
Yes, hard not to be impressed and also like Zarib from that race.

Got be struck by the confidence from Nicholls camp around Modus though. Won't want it too soft but JP loves a Supreme Horse to via this race
By:
Fabulous
When: 14 Jan 16 22:57
Sternrubin for me as well betil, that 20's looks very fair, and I've had few quid on.

Peace and Co, and Sign Of A Victory would be my back up choices at the moment.
By:
betilyerded
When: 15 Jan 16 09:06
Zarib also took my eye Roobuck but just read Dan Skeltons Weekender stable tour from Christmas and I quote " I was happy with that run (in the Ladbroke) but not ecstatic. His next target will  be the Betfair Hurdle but in time we might step him up in trip"

That says Coral Cup to me.

I think Modus has been priced up on his connections rather than anything he has done so far, though he admittedly has top class bumper form. I know its wrong to compare different races but both Sternrubin and Modus won over 16.5f on 26th November at Newbury but Sternrubin did it in a 7 seconds quicker time. Admittedly Modus is a novice and won with only one crack of the whip close home but at the prices Id be happier with Sternrubin.
By:
roobuck
When: 15 Jan 16 09:38
I agree re prices though looks like Modus carried 7lbs more. Like you say difficult to compare races and I'm not a times/speed person anyway. Didn't JP also send Darlan to a small Taunton race to protect its mark? AP is all about value and Modus ain't but may be on the day.

Interesting comments re Zarib. Not sure his horses were/are right but reassuring he said this race was the plan. Think he needs to run well and improve his mark to get in Coral Cup

But all things considered at this stage Sternrubin worth a bet
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 15 Jan 16 20:17
(Sternrubin) Considering his racing style and fluent hurdling it looks a bet to nothing with a lay in running, has course experience and is improving. Ticks a lot of boxes.
By:
seaside dreamer
When: 16 Jan 16 13:09
I noticed on Twitter some or all of Skeltons horses have had there mid season flu jab and were eased off,might explain drop in form etc??.
By:
roobuck
When: 17 Jan 16 15:42
I'll wait till his horses show some form. Born Survivor ran a shocker yesterday
By:
x20
When: 17 Jan 16 19:20
As he is from Nicholls camp who always do flu jab in Jan seems to make sense re Skelton..
By:
RozelKid
When: 17 Jan 16 19:35
Im a big fan of Aristo Du Plessis at 20/1, my heart may be ruling my head but i love the horse and has made me a few quid over the past few months.

I think he is better  than his current mark of 151- but it may be a step too far and be a serious horse over fences next year.
By:
Paterson92
When: 18 Jan 16 16:45
John Constable for me. Angry at myself for not taking the 33's available earlier but have now jumped on at 25's.
By:
The Dragon
When: 19 Jan 16 10:31
20,s have gone bp now 16
By:
CVByrne
When: 19 Jan 16 20:43
Ah f**k off. I completely missed that this market had opened. 14/1 Modus was !!!!! Seething to have missed all the odds.

I'm not stuck between rage against Modus are back at 8/1
By:
CVByrne
When: 19 Jan 16 20:53
So angry at myself. Have Modus as blindly obvious My Tent or Yours Betfair plot and was itching for big bet when the market opened. To have missed the prices is just one of those things that happens isn't it.

Have to take the 8/1
By:
marvinho
When: 19 Jan 16 21:43
same here CVB!  Very annoying although not as annoying as seeing the line come too soon in the Cheltenham Bumper when I was on at 40/1!

I have backed him for the Supreme at 25s.  If he wins the Betfair then that seems the logical next step (not convinced Yanworth will go there and surely JP will have a runner in the opener).  If he doesn't win the Betfair then it won't matter that I missed the 14s.
By:
Joist
When: 19 Jan 16 21:47
To be fair, you'd have had to have been quick out of the blocks to get the 14/1, it lasted all of about 45 minutes Plain
By:
marvinho
When: 19 Jan 16 21:54
that does actually make me feel better Happy
By:
deepingfox
When: 19 Jan 16 22:17
John Constable for me too. If you like Sternrubin, then you may also consider John Constable's profile and weight.
By:
betilyerded
When: 20 Jan 16 18:32
Bit worrying that Hobbs' War Sound - who has been aimed at this since the start of the season and holds a champion hurdle entry - has been well supported today.
Think Richard Johnsons presence in the saddle would be a big plus for Sternrubin but he will undoubtedly have the choice unless Gethings - who partnered the horse at Haydock last year - has been promised the ride.

As for John Constable, I did consider backing him at 33's but after watching the Newbury race found it hard to envisage him turning the tables, despite Sternrubin having the benefit of race fitness. Just thought he was going away again at the finish.
By:
betilyerded
When: 21 Jan 16 09:16
Owner Terry Warner admits he may be "clutching at straws" by expecting Sternrubin to win the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on February 13.

The Philip Hobbs-trained novice was a bit of a tearaway last season but has calmed down to such an extent that he won the Gerry Feilden at Newbury and dead-heated for the Ladbroke in his last two races.

Having set a ferocious gallop in the Ladbroke at Ascot, he was headed close home by Jolly's Cracked It, only to battle back to share first place.

"There's not much more for him to run in, to be honest," said Warner.

"We always thought that he was a nice horse, but if I told you I thought he'd win a Ladbroke at the start of the season I'd be lying.

Terry Warner on Sternrubin

"He was a bit of a head-case last season, but has calmed down now and Philip has done a good job with him - it was great to see him battle back at Ascot.

"The intention is to run at Newbury and then go to Cheltenham, but for what, I'm not sure.

"He's still a novice, don't forget, so the Supreme could be an option if he runs well in the Betfair.

"He'll also be in the County Hurdle, but to win two major handicaps is very hard.

"I think he'll run well at Newbury as he's still progressing, but it might be clutching at straws expecting him to win another big one.

"His transformation has been incredible."

Of course what he meant to say was that "he is a better hurdler than Rooster Booster and Detroit City put together and we think its a penalty kick". Ahem!
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 22 Jan 16 15:51
I'll stick with Sternrubin, this race might not look so tough on the day. Dangers I see may not make the cut or may pick up 5lb penalties. Can't see Peace and Go running, weights could rise 6lb, probably.
By:
sintonian
When: 23 Jan 16 17:36
You would have got laid £2 at 14/1 on Modus.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 23 Jan 16 18:33
Desoto County @ 14/1 appeals but not sure he'll get in.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 24 Jan 16 08:18
Should get in easily, looking at last 4 runnings. Thinking OR of 131, 132 will be on a knife edge.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 24 Jan 16 10:11
Lots of Irish entries this year, but no more than 2 have turned up in recent years.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 24 Jan 16 12:55
Desoto County is one of the horses removed from Donald McCain so I think the owner will be aiming at the Newbury race and GE has great record in big handicap hurdles. Still needs half of those above him to stop out.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 24 Jan 16 12:56
^drop out
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 24 Jan 16 13:14
Drop out they will, though. Mullins alone has 10 entries above Desoto County, Ferguson has 5. He'll definitely make the cut.
By:
corporal
When: 24 Jan 16 19:04
Uncle. Reported in todays RP Sunday supplement and to paraphrase Elliott's Desoto comments...Betfair worth a lot of money but would prefer to miss that and go to Cheltenham for County Hurdle.

Lets see
By:
betilyerded
When: 24 Jan 16 19:17
The Rooneys also have Starchitect in the race who has yet to run for David Pipe despite having been entered in a number of big handicaps this season.

Stable hasnt done a great deal yet this year but they have gone close to winning this in the past 6 years with 5 & 6 year olds and he is certainly one of the more interesting ones if they can get a run into him off his current mark.

Him and Mad Jack Myton, who has been given a Champion Hurdle entry and is Jonjo's only realistic challenger, are the two at bigger prices that I would be looking at.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 24 Jan 16 20:08
Typical - after being persuaded he'd make the cut I lumped on at about 5.00pm and then I get told it's not being aimed at the race.Cry
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 25 Jan 16 04:32
Bad luck Uncle, but you were taking a chance betting an Irish horse when so few go for it.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 25 Jan 16 08:50
Given how far down the list he is for the Betfair Hurdle I'd have thought he'd also be struggling to make the cut in the County?
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 25 Jan 16 10:31
Uncle, I'm not saying anything, don't want to get blamed for something. But it may be worth you're while looking at the last 10 runnings of The County Hurdle. You may find perhaps that a handicap mark of 137 would have got a run every year and perhaps it was won 7 times by an Irish trainer, 5 times the trainers surname was Mullins though, maybe.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 25 Jan 16 13:13
No problem souldancer - only myself to blame.Blush
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 25 Jan 16 15:11
Happy

If he does go for County as Elliot has been reported to favour (thanks for info, corporal) then looks a good e.w. bet. Way he finished last time Cheltenham could suit, looks an improver too. Mullins would have to be feared, but I've risked a bet, thanks for heads up. Maybe I should have waited to see if he goes for Betfair but there you go.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 25 Jan 16 15:22
See their's a forfeit stage tomorrow, I could at least have checked for that before making bet, what an idiot.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 25 Jan 16 15:23
There.
By:
corporal
When: 25 Jan 16 20:41
On at 16s for County too and included in a few multiples. Lets see whether trainer is as good as his reported comments. Didn't get the feeling that the Rooney's had been consulted
By:
DECALEC
When: 25 Jan 16 23:33
Do you not hire a trainer to do the best for you're horse,why do you get the feeling that they weren't consulted,should they not have trust in the trainer,they should let him drive the bus sell the tickets and ring the bell.☺
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