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IrisDeBalme
06 Dec 15 11:14
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Date Joined: 17 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 1,977 | Blogger: IrisDeBalme's blog
No thread so here goes

Annacotty 12/1
Irish Cavalier 12/1
Buywise 12/1
Art Mauresque 14/1
Johns Spirit 16/1
Little Jon 16/1
Thomas Crapper 20/1


Im not sure ANNACOTTY will definitely run but I know Alan King wants to run... likely more weight than what he has now because top weight likely to come out - but King could make it a hatrick by winning Paddy Power, Hennessey and Caspiar Gold Cup - amazing achievement if he does

But looking at the race 12/1 the field, I think its a really good ante post play here as lot of horses will come out and I reckon the list above are the most likely runners, so worth dabbling a play early...(I have also done Buywise and Irish Cavalier as covers just in case Annacotty does not run) - but really loved the way he won last time out and think there may be improvement to come, tough ask with penalty but looks a tenacious horse and can fulfil his true potential... and with a trainer you cant go wrong with at the moment.

Good Luck

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Replies: 111
By:
CVByrne
When: 06 Dec 15 11:19
Irish Cavalier & Little Jon boom boom Grin
By:
GI MAC
When: 06 Dec 15 14:47
I'd be concerned with anything trained by Curtis at the moment, no runners for a bit now, and rank form prior to this.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 06 Dec 15 15:30
^ agree, she said on Twitter that 'all our horses are wrong at the moment! A bad batch of hay.' That was on 27 Nov, plus she said they'd have a few easy weeks to get them sorted.

She has entries for Cheltenham and Bangor next Fri - and in response to a Twitter query states that OFB may run next weekend 

I'd like to see her have a couple run well before getting involved with Irish Cavalier personally - though I agree he is a horse with considerable potential who travelled beautifully before seeming to stop quite quickly in the Paddy Power.
By:
tim6
When: 06 Dec 15 16:23
Early days but Champagne West 14\1 and will give Generous Ransom 33\1 another go, will be my early
antepost bets
By:
CVByrne
When: 06 Dec 15 16:36
Eek too late already backed Irish Cavalier. Wish I'd known she'd said they were under the weather. Hopefully it's cleared up by next weekend.

Also Thomas Crapper has been backed.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 06 Dec 15 16:48
Thomas Crapper 2nd in two consecutive festivals - trainer confirmed he will run last week.
By:
GI MAC
When: 06 Dec 15 17:14
Thanks Rease. Because of the issues with the stable, you can only look favourably upon Irish Cavaliers run on the PP, so he is of definite interest when they get back on track. I wouldn't give up on O'Faolains Boy and Beast of Burden either.
By:
KipperRSA
When: 06 Dec 15 18:29
Been looking at this, agree with you and definitely want Annacotty on side but another couple catching the eye too..
By:
roobuck
When: 06 Dec 15 19:12
Have already backed Art Mauresque @14s.Young horse with lots of potential that will only benefit with better ground. Nicholls form of slight concern though.

Added Thomas Crapper @ 20s who at the prices compared to weights/price vs Irish Cavalier has got to be deemed value imo.

Had a little bit on Little Jon for PP and don't think too harshly treated for recent 1st time win. 16/1 is fair
By:
sintonian
When: 06 Dec 15 19:54
Cocktails At Dawn could be topweight looking at those above him who are very unlikely to run, so 153 OR as topweight. He's better than his run lto but needs Good ground so will wait before backing him.

Annacotty could still have more to come just because of the stable upgrade, tho he was all out to win last time.

Logically and form wise Thomas Crapper seems a good price at 20/1, however his trainer is a shocker. Last time he ran the horse even though his bloods were ''50:50 and upside down''. I'm not a trainer obviously but I was shocked when I read that!
By:
sintonian
When: 06 Dec 15 20:06
Curtis not had any runners since the 27th. You'd wanna see Irish cav in the 5-day entries before backing that.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 06 Dec 15 20:09
Id be surprised if he didn't run... the moment they declare him will be 6s or 7s... yes he did stop when he seemed like cruising but that run would have done him the world of good - I saw it as fitness rather than yard issues...

I took the risk to grab 12s but just have to wait and see...
By:
sintonian
When: 06 Dec 15 20:16
Maybe, but she has no entries until the 11th. Doesn't sound good either way really as you'd want the yard to have some winners first.
By:
sintonian
When: 06 Dec 15 20:19
There are a stack load of horses in the 130's here, probably waiting to see what the top weight will be.
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 06 Dec 15 23:15
had a £25 free bet from laddies backed bristol de mai with the grid card on saturday, stuck it on annacotty must go well here off only 5lb more.

champagne west the intersting one off 150, no idea if he will turn up thou, polvarised ptit zig here last year, probably back buywise to.

think sound investment will carry top weight

good luck all as always
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Dec 15 08:44
I'm in agreement with the O/P.

Anacotty 3pt win 1 pt place 12/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)

Buywise 1/2pt win 12/1

Thomas Crapper 1/2pt win 20/1
By:
PJay
When: 07 Dec 15 12:00
Thomas Crapper not running
By:
tim6
When: 07 Dec 15 14:59
Think Wishful Thinking will be top weight which would suit hobbs and keep Champagne on a nice weight
By:
PJay
When: 07 Dec 15 15:10
Wishful Thinking is not running either tim6.
By:
PJay
When: 07 Dec 15 15:13
1    51-813    Sound Investment      7    11-12    Paul Nicholls
2    F-4215    Irish Cavalier      6    11-6    Rebecca Curtis       
3    653-P9    Johns Spirit        8    11-5    Jonjo O´Neill
4    145-32    Buywise                    8    11-2    Evan Williams
5    P10F-1    Annacotty              7    11-2    Alan King
6    112F-    Champagne West       7    11-0    Philip Hobbs
7    40254    Texas Jack          9    11-0    Noel Meade
8    95/1-1    Salubrious          8    10-12    Paul Nicholls
9    F1U/5-    Mozoltov            9    10-12    W P Mullins
10    1-1316    Art Mauresque       5    10-11    Paul Nicholls
11    4694-1    Tenor Nivernais      8    10-8    Venetia Williams
12    461-41    Little Jon          7    10-7    Nigel Twiston-Davies
13    13-711    Doctor Phoenix      7    10-5    David Dennis
14    P426B    Pass The Hat         8    10-4    A L T Moore
15    134-00    Generous Ransom     7    10-2    Nick Gifford
16    3356-5    Turn Over Sivola     8    10-1    Alan King
17    P11-5P    Shantou Magic       8    10-1    Charlie Longsdon
18    12P-11    Village Vic         8    10-0    Philip Hobbs
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 15:55
Im not sure I'd trust Nick Gifford to train my dog, but Generous Ransom is absolutely thrown in here, based on his festival run in March. Stayed on really well that day so shouldn't be any probs with the trip. Was only 3l behind Irish Cavalier that day getting a solitary pound, and is now in receipt of 18lb. Likewise he beat Little Jon 6l giving him 3lb and now receives 5lb. Seems fairly versatile with regards to ground.

The big negative is his last two runs, which have been nothing short of abysmal (and the trainer). But willing to risk him again at 20/1. Cheers
By:
Tucho
When: 07 Dec 15 16:46
Not sure your dog could get over those fences anyway.

I backed him in March and then the PaddyPower and have talked myself into it again. Cry

Generous Ransom had 2 runs over unsuitably short distances to start last season, then won on his 3rd start when stepped up, so he might be a horse that takes a couple of runs to get race-fit. He's ran at Cheltenham 4 times, but only once on the new course, which he won. He's been running on the old course at Cheltenham this season but it's the new course on Saturday.

So 2 poor runs this season to get fit then aim him at this race on the new course. It could be a plan or he needs a new trainer.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 07 Dec 15 17:26
Disappointing with Thomas Crapper - as Sporting Life said he was on target etc... I wonder if they post bogus stories in order of making some money - as he was the only horse they reported on which is a bit odd... he doesn't run...

Erm that's me and my conspiracy theories...

Anyway TENOR NINERVAIS 20/1 is an interesting entry for Venetia Williams stable, I think 20s is big and they did win it last year with a horse (NiceoneFrankie) who has a very similar profile.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 17:56
I took the same view about two runs last season as well Tucho. Maybe he just isn't very adept at getting them fit and they need races?
By:
harchibald
When: 07 Dec 15 18:20
Salubrious NAP. Has come on over a stone for Carlisle pipe opener, after intense rain this week at Cheltenham likely to get the heavy ground he will love and that may inconvenience others. Festival winner, 8 years old and joint owned by 2 of National Hunt Racing's most prominent Families. 148 will look an absolute mega blot come Saturday, just as 159 did about Al Ferof in the PP a few years back. I'm on at 20's so was pleased to see him feature in the 5 day decs. All this needs now is Sam on top and we're in with a great shout.

Views ?
By:
CVByrne
When: 07 Dec 15 18:27
Nicholls said Salubrious will run at Ascot instead unless Cheltenham gets a deluge and it comes up very soft.
By:
harchibald
When: 07 Dec 15 18:27
great. When and where did he say that CV ?
By:
harchibald
When: 07 Dec 15 18:30
"We send a decent team to Cheltenham at the end of the week including Old Guard in the International Hurdle and Sound Investment, Salubrious and Art Mauresque in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup."

That's all that is on his blog ...
By:
CVByrne
When: 07 Dec 15 18:30
Said it today

http://course-specialist.co.uk/blogs/paul-nicholls-planning-strong-team-for-day-two-of-the-international/
By:
harchibald
When: 07 Dec 15 18:31
Mmmm thanks. B8888cks though. Dear oh dear ... rain dance needed then.
By:
KipperRSA
When: 07 Dec 15 18:55
More chance of good ground than heavy, good to soft I reckon, thats what Im basing my bets/analysis on
By:
harchibald
When: 07 Dec 15 19:57
And bizarrely £168 quid for him in this market and £0 matched for Ascot ... intriguing but I'd be clutching at straws sadly I think ...
By:
__O1
When: 07 Dec 15 20:11
Surely the step up in trip for Buywise should do the trick.  However feel free to back him at treble his odds in running.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 15 20:22
Step up in trip _O1?
By:
__O1
When: 08 Dec 15 00:23
Yes it's 100 metres further he is usually in the lead 10 metres after the post so 90 to play with. I would like to see him over further though. He is a back to lay punters dream !!!
By:
__O1
When: 08 Dec 15 00:23
Yes it's 100 metres further he is usually in the lead 10 metres after the post so 90 to play with. I would like to see him over further though. He is a back to lay punters dream !!!
By:
PJay
When: 08 Dec 15 09:18
I don't know if it is actually any longer. But any extra couple of meters would be at the start, not at the finishing post where he needs it.

Last time Buywise had a race with a very fast pace, heavy ground to slow them all up/tire them out and a huge headwind in the straight which was guaranteed to slow down those front runners. I don't think everything is going to fall as sweet for him again.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 08 Dec 15 09:31
Took 11/1 Village Vic this morning from 32 red . com, funnily enough, my 50 each way was referred to trader but they took the bet. Suppose i need to start to get used to that now since my bet way account has been whittled down to a max take out per bet to £10! Though most of my bets are placed in shops, i don't usually have this problem a lot of you on here have in the past so i guess i am starting to feel your pains.

Anyways, followed you in on Generous Ransom CCM and Tucho, what use both say convinced me to dabble at the 20s on offer, if also what Nichols says proves to be accurate, then everything shortens in price anyways seeing as them 2 horses he will send to Ascot and not here are above GR in the market.

Art Mauresque is another ive added to the portfolio at 10s.
By:
betilyerded
When: 08 Dec 15 13:05
Im with Iris. Its uncanny how similair a profile Tenor Nivernais has to last years winner Niceonefrankie, both being seemingly exposed, experienced chasers that both won the same Ascot race impressively prior to coming here - both even ran down the field in the previous seasons Racing Post Chase at Kempton.

Dont know what it is about Venetia Williams and the way she trains.

Those with long memories will remember The Outack Way winning the Mackeson in the late nineties after 20 odd chase starts. Even more recent Cheltenham handicap winners such as Mon Mome and a bit further back Royale de vassey both landing what was then a lucrative 3mile chase at the start of this meeting after 20 odd chase starts too. Think 20-1 s worth a stab.

Agree also about Generous Ransom but Nick Gifford hasnt trained a winner yet this season so unless he has some success on Friday i will reluctantly let it pass.
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