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HKAccie
25 Oct 15 09:37
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Date Joined: 22 May 10
| Topic/replies: 882 | Blogger: HKAccie's blog
2 trial races today at Sha Tin run as prep races for December - not a bad sprint race performance....replay up soon, races 8&9

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/meeting/Results/english/Local/
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Report MrDinos November 24, 2015 7:50 AM GMT
Both bred by Moyglare Stud!
Report HKAccie November 24, 2015 12:26 PM GMT
Are the signs positive for Flintshire to defend his crown as he's not quoted in the Japan Cup betting? Also I see AF is now 6-4 with B365, if you want to back him I'd suggest back him in the UK as he's highly unlikely to be odds against on HKJC (I hope anyway).

Still can't believe Blazing Speed is 12-1 for the Cup as I think his form to be better than those local horses quoted ahead of him at the moment, but what do I know!!!
Report HKAccie November 24, 2015 12:56 PM GMT
Think the AP Cup back in April is also a good guide, BS is very underrated and 12-1 ew is great value, he's beaten all of those ahead of him in the betting over CD and set weights.
Report MrDinos November 24, 2015 2:00 PM GMT
Flintshire's connections said he was on target for the HK Vase a couple of weeks ago. Erupt is the only French runner in the Japan Cup and settled in well from what I've read.

Agree HK, Blazing Speed is the value bet at the moment. Looks like they've prepped him better this time as well compared to last year.
Report HKAccie November 24, 2015 11:11 PM GMT
Last year BS was fancied strongly but he went wrong in the race and was lame the next day, he went off at 6-1, he's had one less run this year and I'm convinced he's better this year, we're getting a better price because he's not from one of the fashionable stables, he goes very well for Callan too.....looks like I've convinced myself on my Cup bet!!
Report MrDinos November 25, 2015 7:45 AM GMT
Free Eagle in the HK Cup, bookies couldn't have got this more wrong! This race is looking like it's going to be a cracker.
Report HKAccie November 25, 2015 8:06 AM GMT
http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/...
Report HKAccie November 25, 2015 8:11 AM GMT
All 4 look good and much stronger than last year
Report MrDinos November 25, 2015 8:17 AM GMT
Yep, a lot stronger HK.
Report HKAccie November 25, 2015 8:20 AM GMT
May have to re-evaluate my blazing speed selection!!
Report MrDinos November 25, 2015 8:52 AM GMT
The Cup looks very competitive, a few Japanese runners as well.

Cannot believe the current price of Maurice (2-1), it was a solid win last Sunday in the Champions Mile but nothing special. I don't think the Japanese milers are that good a bunch. Maybe it's the Ryan Moore factor!
Report MrDinos November 25, 2015 8:54 AM GMT
It was a solid win! Tongue Out
Report MrDinos November 25, 2015 10:30 AM GMT
Backed Free Eagle at 14-1 EW with B365... too big a price IMO!
Report Can't Catch Me November 25, 2015 11:41 AM GMT
Morning chaps. Hope you are both well. Fantastic thread as ever, and have thoroughly enjoyed reading it, so thanks for all the insight. Cant believe I got 6/4 Able Friend yesterday Grin Willing to forgive him the one bad run and the horse owes me nothing. Just wish I was going again this year, one of my favourite days racing ever! Will either of you be there?
Report MrDinos November 25, 2015 12:50 PM GMT
Cheers CCM, all good here. House move earlier this year scuppered any chance of going... I will get there one day!!!.

I kept looking at that Able Friend's price yesterday, some funny odds at B365. Maurice was evens favourite yesterday with them!!! Able Friend beat Fiero by  nearly 6 lengths last year, Maurice was just over a length in front of Fiero Sunday (Champions Mile). I know which one I would be backing at those prices and it's not Maurice.
Report unclepuncle November 25, 2015 1:24 PM GMT
Wish I'd seen that 14/1 Mr Dinos.Cry

Only 7/1 now with B365, though that is still way bigger than the other bookies.
Report Can't Catch Me November 25, 2015 2:37 PM GMT
Great shout on Free Eagle lads... followed you in at 14/1... as low as 3/1 with Paddy!!!
Report MrDinos November 25, 2015 2:42 PM GMT
I had a spot of luck with that bet Uncle! Grin

Funny how our bookies have completely different views when it comes to these international meetings.
Report HKAccie November 25, 2015 4:01 PM GMT
Hello CCM - I will be there as usual, table booked already!! Best days racing value in the world! Equivalent of 70 quid all in dinner and booze in a box!! Great price on AF at 6-4 too....I may be opposing him though. Looking forward to the day and more discussion - always a good thread for discussion this one with you guys a very good source of insight
Report HKAccie November 25, 2015 4:03 PM GMT
Maybe one year we'll have a this thread outing to the meeting itself!
Report Can't Catch Me November 25, 2015 4:24 PM GMT
Well we've decided we are definitely coming again next year so see you there! Absolutely gutted looking at the form and the trial knowing we wont be there this time :( Agree about the value, we literally couldnt believe it. Great setting as well. Which restaurant are you in?

Cant believe you could take on AF... now im worried!
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR November 26, 2015 12:09 AM GMT
Well done on the quiz Mr Dinos. 6/1 the field in the Cup testifies to a massive difference in opinion between odds compilers in different firms but 14/1 Free Eagle was sensational value and he is still great value at 6s
Report HKAccie November 26, 2015 12:33 PM GMT
I am still on Blazing Speed out of the home team and have taken him at 12-1 ew Free Eagle is the one that worries me but with travel, climate, ground etc I'm willing to take a home horse at double the odds, especially one who has the beating of DOR and MA over course and distance this year.

CCM - I am loathed to take AF on but I think it can't be coincidence that the 2 times he's faced top class opposition he's come up short, I know both times were at the end of a season but I think a massive horse like him running on G/GF ground all the time will take its toll eventually, I may be talking myself into looking a fool come race day but I'm not convinced. There are arguments the other way too, his first run this year was exceptional and he did run sub 22 last run - perhaps we can blame the pilot (sacrilege I know to throw dirt at the magic man but some have been doing so in HK), I will wait until nearer the time to see the draw and how the o/seas runners turn out once they arrive. I'm sure your 6-4 will beat the HKJC odds though!

The sprint I can' see Gold Fun being beaten provided he draws well, if not Straight Girl ew is a good bet as she ran wide all the way last year and still finished 3rd.

The Vase needs some more thought!
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR November 26, 2015 1:02 PM GMT
Viz Free Eagle , what sort of money did they lay to 14/1 ?
Report HKAccie November 26, 2015 3:17 PM GMT
may be of interest

http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/news/2015-11/news_2015112501936.html
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR November 26, 2015 6:47 PM GMT
Interesting stuff HK , always thought the horses travelled by cargo freight , never really crossed my mind that the plane I was travelled in as a passenger might have a famous racehorse in the hold !
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR November 26, 2015 6:47 PM GMT
travelling
Report MrDinos November 26, 2015 7:58 PM GMT
I still can't fathom how Free Eagle was 14-1 with B365 yesterday but I think it might be to do with the Aussie punters backing horses they are more familiar with, like the Japanese. The Aussies seem to have influenced B365 international race prices a lot over the last few years, there have been some massive price differences between them and other bookies. Sunday's Japan Cup prices on Oddschecker shows how shorter they are on Japanese runners than other bookies. I might be completely wrong but it's just a thought... I'm not complaining getting 14-1 on Free Eagle, I just hope he gets to Hong Kong now! Scared

It wasn't a big EW bet on Free Eagle Stellar. I'm pretty reserved now when it comes to my ante post betting after having my fingers burnt a few times in the past.

I think your spot on regarding Blazing Speed HK, great value at the moment and if I was backing one of the home team he would be the one. I was going to back him as well but I couldn't desert Staphanos, he's ran a couple of crackers for me at big prices this year and the 16-1 PP are offering was too tempting, so I've added him EW in the HK Cup. Happy with the prices I've got but there is still plenty of time for it to go down the gurgler!
Report HKAccie November 26, 2015 11:59 PM GMT
Staphsnos beaten 2l by BS in April over CD - I did back both that day (aftertiming) but I didn't do the quin!! Perhaps history will repeat Mr D.

Looking at the vase I can't now get away from Flintshire, he is the class in the race but I so want to back the Helene horses at 25's as I think one or both will be shorter on the day, Dominant at 14's is also fairly tempting but will it be just chucking money away that could all just go on Flintshire to win
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR November 27, 2015 12:14 AM GMT
Free Eagle preferred to run in the Cup so as to avoid Flintshire in the Vase whereas Highland Reel was keen to avoid Free Eagle and goes in the Vase accordingly !
Report HKAccie November 28, 2015 2:24 AM GMT
Vase - I'm leaning towards Helene Happy Star ew (big price difference in UK from 8-1 to 33-1). There's not much between the 2 and Dominant but I'm not too sure what happened to H Super Star last time, he was slightly heavier than when he has won before so maybe he's not completely fit but Cruz horses are in good form so that's the worry for me on that front. Dominant could prove to be the best home based horse but he is a 7yo vs a 4yo in HHS and Dominant is only 20-1 best price and they are all rated the same in HK. I will take Flintshire win and HHS ew.
Report MrDinos November 28, 2015 10:05 AM GMT
A perfect example of the huge price difference between B365 and other UK bookies HK. 33-1 is huge and did stand out when I looked at the betting for the Vase. I backed HHS in the AP Cup (10f) along with Staphanos (posted) and he didn't run a bad race, 12f is a better trip for him and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit a place. Flintshire will be hard to beat, track and ground conditions are perfect for him, just like we posted last year! Wink

Had a look at the HK Sprint and one at a biggish price I like the look of is Mikke Isle (16-1). He ran Aerovelocity close (1/2 length) at Chukyo (G1) earlier this year and wasn't far behind Straight Girl in the Sprinter Stakes... he was drawn wide in both. His achilles heel is he pulls very hard and in his last few races it's cost him. If he could settle better I'm sure he his capable of running a big race, with a couple of Yanks in the HK Sprint the pace could be hot which might help him out!!
Report MrDinos November 28, 2015 1:21 PM GMT
Mikki Isle! Tongue Out

Mongolian Saturday is the Yank which would more likely set a good pace in the HK Sprint IMO but you never know in these races. As HK as posted, the draw will make a big difference as well.
Report HKAccie November 30, 2015 1:37 AM GMT
I've had a very speculative ew L15 Blazing Speed (12), HHS (25), Esoterique (10) and Straight Girl (11-2)......with a win double  and singles of Flintshire and Gold Fun at 5-2 and 9-4 as I think both will be shorter on the day. I will wait until the draw until I decide on whether to have a proper bet on Gold Fun, and may do a win treble on AF (make you happier CCM?), Gold Fun and Flintshire once the draws are done.
Report HKAccie November 30, 2015 1:42 AM GMT
Interesting what Tony Cruz said about being short of work

http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2015-hkir/hkir-blogger.aspx?in_file=hkir_blog_2015112701028_blogger5.html&b_cid=CSLDSPE_1516HKIR_INDEX_LNU
Report MrDinos November 30, 2015 10:47 AM GMT
Erupt, Trip To Paris and Ito all scratched from the Vase after poor runs in the Japan Cup.

Shonan Pandora and Lovely Day boosted the Tenno Sho form yesterday finishing 1st and 3rd in Japan Cup. Positive for Staphanos?! Wink
Report HKAccie November 30, 2015 11:58 AM GMT
Which is also a huge positive for Blazing Speed.......ExcitedExcited
Report MrDinos November 30, 2015 12:42 PM GMT
Staphanos has improved a ton since his AP Cup 2nd! Laugh

Being serious, it's a very open race IMO, a stronger pace than the AP Cup would help Staphanos but would also help a few others as well including BS. Hopefully it will not be one of those start, stop muddling pace races!
Report HKAccie December 1, 2015 5:33 AM GMT
I hope you're not right Mr D, no Same World this year, but the only one I could think could set a pace is Dan Excel, and if T Berry rides him he could dictate the pace and mess it up, he also has a good kick as he showed in the Singapore Cup this year so could steal it and he has run from the front before, he takes a bit of work to get fit and it'll be interesting to see what weight he is on the day as he's had 3 runs so far and is a lot heavier than the end of last season, he could have other targets for later in the season in which case I hope he sets a pace......I've seen worse 100-1 shots though, as he is with 888 & 32.
Report MrDinos December 1, 2015 8:10 AM GMT
A Shin Hikari is another one that likes to go from the front HK. He doesn't muck about either, hopefully he will be one that sets a good tempo for the race... that's if he runs!
Report HKAccie December 1, 2015 9:22 AM GMT
Think the draw could prove an important factor in the cup, I know it may sound a bit odd for a 2000m race but the first bend is only 200m from the stalls so you wouldn't want to be sat 3 or 4 wide going round it if you're an on-pace or midfield runner like many of them are, it could set up for DOR again, though I'm still happy with BS.
Report HKAccie December 3, 2015 11:42 AM GMT
Early form guide

http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2015-hkir/hkir-form-guide.pdf?b_cid=CSLDSPE_1516HKIR_PAGE-MORE
Report MrDinos December 4, 2015 8:23 AM GMT
Staphanos, Straight Girl, Satono Aladdin, Mikki Isle, A Shin Hikari and Fiero have just arrived at Sha Tin from Osaka. Excited

Already settled in at Sha Tin are Green Mask, Mongolian Saturday, Gailo Chop, Criterion and Preferment.

Looking forward to next weeks build up and live track work stream from HKJC.
Report HKAccie December 4, 2015 9:35 AM GMT
David Hayes suggests Criterion is the best he's had him
Report MrDinos December 4, 2015 10:11 AM GMT
Not surprised by that HK, he looked a billion bucks in the photograph of him arriving at Sha Tin the other day. He still needs to step it up a bit more IMO... like Staphanos needs to but not out of the question!

Good update on Free Eagle yesterday, all systems go and has been training well. It will all be about the flight now and how he handle's it?!
Report HKAccie December 4, 2015 11:49 AM GMT
I was speaking to a mate today and he's all over Criterion with me BS.....I did say if the real Free Eagle turns up he'll hose them all, but it's an if with travel etc so I'm waiting for the draw and to see how the o/seas runners turn out before getting properly involved. Think forecast on FE and BS may be one bet!!!

The long term weather forecast is overcast with light rain weds and thurs, 22 degrees and low humidity at the weekend.
Report MrDinos December 5, 2015 8:08 AM GMT
The Irish and French horses have arrived at Sha Tin. Excited

Weather looks grim in Hong Kong today HK... heavy rainfall?
Report HKAccie December 5, 2015 10:49 AM GMT
Not heavy but not great...not good for a wedding!!
Report MrDinos December 5, 2015 11:07 AM GMT
Are you getting another wife HK? Laugh
Report HKAccie December 5, 2015 2:38 PM GMT
Haha - ones enough!! A friend's wedding.....tried to stop him of course
Report MrDinos December 7, 2015 12:42 PM GMT
I thought so HK! LaughCrazy

All the international raiders have arrived now, Cannock Chase, Mondialiste and Toormore rocked up at Sha Tin today.

I had a good look at the HK Mile over the weekend to try and see if I could find an EW bet against Able Friend. Like HK, the first one at the prices which caught my eye was Esoterique, she is a top class mare and has run some fine races this year, she would have been the bet but there are a couple of nagging doubts!! Firstly her best runs have been on straight tracks at Newmarket, Ascot and Deauville respectively. Sha Tin is nothing like those tracks and that might find her out against some very good milers, also she has been on the go for a while and not sure a flight to America and then Hong Kong is ideal!!

The only other one which I'm tempted to back EW is Danon Platina, he's the only 3yr old in the race which could be negative looking at past winners of the race. Even though there have only been two 3yr old winners there have been a few which have gone very close to winning in recent years (Creachadoir | Royal Bench | Dubawi Gold).
Danon Platina is very lightly raced and unexposed at 8F, he won the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (G1 8F) at Hanshin as 2yr old and that win really grabbed my attention. He travelled strongly through the race and went from near enough last to first like a very good horse. For his first two races as a 3yr old his connection stepped him up in trip which I don't think he wanted, he didn't disgrace himself over 9F finishing a length behind the future Japanese St Leger winner/second but 10F was too far in his next race. After a very long break (April - October) he came back and won his prep over 8F (G3) beating Satono Aladdin with another power packed last to first win. Satono Aladdin was then only a length behind Maurice in the Champions Mile and that form puts Danon Platina right in the mix at a much bigger price and I think he's got scope for more improvement. As I posted earlier on in the thread I think Maurice is too short even though he's won three on the trot but his current price is probably more to do with RM riding, which is a positive. Before I place my bet on DP I want to see how he settles in and what his connections have to say but at 16-1 he will more than likely be my EW bet to finish behind Able Friend.

I seem to be turning Japanese this year, I've added an EW bet on Mikki Isle (16-1) in the HK Sprint. If this fella can settle (needs a strong pace) I think he will will run a big race, it's doubtful but at the price worth a gamble.

Some positive Tweets from Sha Tin track work regarding Free Eagle, Criterion and Gailo Chop today... they were the eye catchers (Candice Hare / SCMP Racing Post)!!!

Bets so far:

HK Cup: Free Eagle 14-1 EW / Staphanos 16-1 EW
HK Sprint: Mikki Isle 16-1 EW
HK Mile: Danon Platina 16-1 EW (very likely)
Report Can't Catch Me December 7, 2015 2:31 PM GMT
Sounds to me like you are struggling to find anything to beat AF MrD Grin
Report MrDinos December 7, 2015 3:01 PM GMT
Yep CCM, I don't think AF will get beat, if he runs like he did in the Premier Bowl nothing should get near him IMO... that was awesome. I think Danon Platina is the value bet at 16-1 and a good EW alternative compared to Maurice who was hovering around evens favourite a couple of weeks ago!!! Crazy

I will put AF in some doubles and trebles... that melt down at Royal Ascot is still fresh in my memory but so is last years wonderful HK Mile win! CryHappy
Report HKAccie December 7, 2015 11:20 PM GMT
Right - recovered now from the headache after the super cherries win on Saturday!!

I'm waiting for the draw now, so far Blazing Speed 12-1 ew and the previously posted ew L15 are my bets. I'm torn between straight girl and gold fun for the sprint, and I'm definitely moving back towards AF in the mile, he won extremely well first up and wasn't exactly given the best ride for the last run on a track suiting on pace runners on the day. While I'm happy to back one of the Helene horses in the vase you have to think Flintshire will take a lot of beating on the form book - Dominant has some +ve vibes apparently but I'm not so convinced by him (or the source!!)

It could be as simple as AF, GF and Flintshire in a treble!!
Report MrDinos December 8, 2015 12:16 PM GMT
Great win by your lads HK, especially with all the injury's!!!

Track work watchers tweeted positive updates again for Criterion and Free Eagle. Danon Platina got a #wow from Candice Hare and some other very good comments... Maurice was another stand out!
Report HKAccie December 9, 2015 12:18 AM GMT
There are daily track work notes passed on hkjc under racing - news - all news

http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/news/2015-12/news_2015120701226.html

Fair amount of rain last night and showers forecast, possibility of just good going on Sunday.
Report HKAccie December 9, 2015 5:51 AM GMT
4mm per hour rainfall today, forecast has improved as today should be the only rain of the week.
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR December 10, 2015 2:55 AM GMT
Over an inch and a half of rain yesterday but no further rain forecast and it will be fast ground on Sunday
Report HKAccie December 10, 2015 4:15 AM GMT
Great draw for Gold Fun and also happy with Blazing Speed.

Hopefully will have news to report on Free Eagle and Toormore tomorrow direct from source.
Report MrDinos December 10, 2015 8:01 AM GMT
Good draws for your two HK... not best pleased with the barriers for the ones I've backed, especially Staphanos!

Added Danon Platina at 16-1 EW with B365 in the HK Mile.
Report HKAccie December 10, 2015 10:33 AM GMT
Not so happy for Straight Girl as she'll be doing the same as last year now from 13, you must be happy with the L9 draw though Mr D?

I'm leaning towards Gold Fun as my best bet of the 4 races now but I don't think he'll be any sort of price on the HKJC so if you want to back him go for the 2-1 in the UK.
Report MrDinos December 10, 2015 10:45 AM GMT
One last hurrah at 33-1 EW for Lucky Nine HK... just a small EW bet. Lightning strikes twice for Straight Girl, no luck at all. Mikki Isle will try and get to the front from what his connections have said from barrier 10. Mongolian Saturday will be the one drawn low (4) going for the lead. Looks a perfect set-up for Gold Fun HK!
Report HKAccie December 10, 2015 10:53 AM GMT
Almost too perfect Mr D!!

Doncaster 12.40 tomorrow btw, just to watch as he's likely to be very green still and hurdling isn't what he's made to do, plus he's still growing.
Report MrDinos December 10, 2015 11:06 AM GMT
Mikki Isle will have to torpedo out the gates to get a good position! Cry

Gold Fun has a lot going for him now.

I've got tomorrow off so I will be able to watch the race live on ATR. Cool
Report MrDinos December 11, 2015 12:55 PM GMT
KR withdrawn HK, I didn't see what happened or what the problem was. Unlucky, would have been good to see how he got on first race back!
Report HKAccie December 11, 2015 1:56 PM GMT
He ran into the back of another horse near the start, bit over excited, as he'd banged his head the vet wouldn't let him start - he's fine so all part of education for him, he's a bit green and over exuberant but he'll come good we're sure!

No news from Free Eagle and other euro horses either as the trainers and jocks weren't that over revealing last evening - a mate met with them last night as Smullen rides a horse for him but he wouldn't be drawn. I'm meeting up with one of them tomorrow hopefully so I'll do some digging!!

Still can't get away from Gold Fun..,,it's got to the stage now where I'm so convinced I'm doubting myself (if that makes sense!)
Report MrDinos December 11, 2015 3:36 PM GMT
Good to hear KR's OK, he's got plenty of time on his side. Will look forward to hearing updates on his progress HK.

From the tweets and general media reports that I've read it sounds like Free Eagle is in great form and has settled in very well at Sha Tin. He has had glowing reports each day so I will be really disappointed if he's not in the first three.

I think the pace of the race will be pretty good in the HK Cup, A Shin Hikari drawn wide will have to be quick out the gates to get to the front (his style) from barrier 12, his connections said after the draw that's what they intend to do... they stated they have no other option. I think Criterion will try and follow him from barrier 13, he's another one that likes to be near the pace. With Gailo Chop and Dan Excel two others who like to race prominently there could be a proper fight for the lead early on and a quick pace!

Blazing Speed got a good update today from his trainer Tony Cruz, he's confident of a big run. I will probably regret not backing him but I'm going to stick with the two I already backed before the draw and just hope they get a good early position from tricky draws. If they do I think they will be bang there at the finish... with a few others. Really looking forward to this race. Excited

The thing with Gold Fun is you know what your going to get, he's so consistent... I can understand your confidence in him HK. My two bets are more speculative ones but I do believe they have the ability to be in the mix if the race goes to plan, I'm more confident with Mikki Isle than L9 though.
Report HKAccie December 12, 2015 7:57 AM GMT
Blazing speed is current fav on hkjc and hhs is showing at 4-1, gold fun is 10/11
Report MrDinos December 12, 2015 8:59 AM GMT
John Moore seemed more bullish about Dominant rather than HHS the other day. Do you think HHS price is more to do with the Magic Man riding HK?

HHS price is 25-1 at the moment over here, I'm tempted to have a dabble EW but JM put me off a bit. Older horses have got a good record in this race, 6,7 and 8yr olds have won it!
Report HKAccie December 12, 2015 10:26 AM GMT
As I mentioned earlier I liked HHS due to the 25/1, I did say dominant and the 2 Helene horses were closely matched on form. I do think magic man is a factor on the price here but he's far too short so perhaps Dominant will be the bet tomorrow now locally though he's currently only 7-1 so may just stick with my HHS on uk bet.
Report MrDinos December 12, 2015 10:58 AM GMT
I totally agree HK, HHS price is the value bet out of the two, I was just a bit surprised with John Moore's comments. There is nothing between the two but JM thought HHS was just an EW chance if he stepped up again, bit odd he's only 4-1 on HKJC when JM makes that kind of comment!
Report MrDinos December 12, 2015 12:13 PM GMT
There is some crazy prices with B365 for HK Mile, if you don't fancy a HK runner back with them. I still think Able Friend will win but there is some cracking EW value with them at the moment!

I've gone in again on Danon Platina at 40-1 EW, that is way too big IMO.
Report MrDinos December 12, 2015 12:22 PM GMT
There are some crazy prices with B365... my typing went a bit street style! Tongue Out
Report HKAccie December 12, 2015 12:23 PM GMT
Not convinced by that Mr D - esoterique is currently 65-1 on hkjc
Report MrDinos December 12, 2015 12:25 PM GMT
Wowzers, I know which one you will be backing then!
Report HKAccie December 12, 2015 1:15 PM GMT
yup, great draw and think she'll run nicely, not too sure anything can beat AF but at these current prices you'd be silly not to have a little bit on.

I'm now drifting away from Gold Fun too......due to the price only, if I'm up early doors I'll definitely back him but one ew for me is NotListnentome as I think he's got a great draw and will get the run of the race, it is relying on the US horses not handling the right hand bend (which I'm not convinced they will) and him getting a big gap to run up against the rail.
Report sintonian December 12, 2015 3:11 PM GMT
On the Free Eagle express one last time. Good luck all.
Report HKAccie December 12, 2015 4:23 PM GMT
HKJC is streaming the 4 races live on their website. Good luck all
Report MrDinos December 12, 2015 6:44 PM GMT
Decided to back Dominant (14-1 EW) in the Vase after changing my mind a number of times. John Moore's confidence and belief that Dominant is in better form than when he won it 2 years ago swayed my decision, plus Zac Purton is back on board.

Compared to last year I've been more speculative with my bets, this years races look a lot more competitive and I feel there could be a few surprises... the favourites will probably go and win every race now!!!! Crazy

Super excited for tomorrow, should be a great morning of top class horse racing. Good luck all.
Report HKAccie December 12, 2015 7:46 PM GMT
Already a great, if early, morning Mr D.... Had to watch the football!!
Report Can't Catch Me December 12, 2015 7:53 PM GMT
Great win for you boys HK Love

Great thread again lads... Good luck with all your bets and see you in the morning. Alarm set for 6am!
Report MrDinos December 12, 2015 7:55 PM GMT
Another great win for your lads HK, hopefully we get some winners tomorrow/today as well. Wink
Report MrDinos December 12, 2015 8:17 PM GMT
Catch you in the morning CCM... a bit different to last year! Grin
Report Can't Catch Me December 12, 2015 8:39 PM GMT
Haha. Just a bit mate Sad
Report MrDinos December 12, 2015 8:53 PM GMT
Sorry CCM, we'll have the wonderful DELAYED live coverage on ATR/RUK to look forward to, the HKJC live stream better not be delayed. Cry
Report johnnyrant December 12, 2015 9:52 PM GMT
Are they showing the HK races live on ATR tomorrow morning?
Report FatoteSport December 12, 2015 10:40 PM GMT
Best of luck once again chaps.

The prices, particularly on b365, have done some crazy things over the past fortnight. I'm sure Esoterique was 5/1 at some point, was 20s earlier today. HHS 6/1 with them now having been perhaps 33/1 before? Still 20s with Paddy!

B365 have a huge exposure to Asian betting markets which may drive some of this.

I've had a few small AP multis on  but at the current odds I'm keen to look away from the favs. Magic Man and Moore have a good set of rides between them. Maurice is now a backable price. Lucky Nine's price is an insult in what I think is an open sprint. Peniaphobia one for the multiple. Military Attack seems a bit overlooked, although Free Eagle really should win if he has taken the journey over well. I am struggling in the vase. I have never warmed to Flintshire but the rest don't seem that strong. 3yos have a bad record I think. ,au be Cannock Chase is the one to take him on with.
Report HKAccie December 12, 2015 10:52 PM GMT
Live cast on here

http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2015-hkir/index.aspx

Going to pay for watching that football but who cares?? 11am coach on the sauce all day then back into the island for a long night.....day off tomorrow!
Report HKAccie December 12, 2015 10:55 PM GMT
Think this is the best cup race I've seen since being here, plenty in with a shout. I think Mr D could be on to something with Staphanos
Report MrDinos December 12, 2015 11:31 PM GMT
Sounds like it's going to be one crazy day HK!!!

The draw is a problem for Staphanos but the positive is the pace looks like it will be strong. Some very talented horses in the Cup this year including last years 1st and 2nd. It's going to be some race.

I was going to back Cannock Chase Fatote when he hit 20-1 with B365 but his wide draw made me change my mind, that might have been a wrong decision. Winning in Canada has been a good stepping stone for this race in the past. Your right about 3yr old colts, they have a wretched record in the Vase.
Report EastLower Gooner December 13, 2015 3:47 AM GMT
Daryian in the vase...cleaned up when his mom made that storming run to win this so will stick with the boy.

Maurice in the mile....in Ryan we trust.....

blazing Speed in the cup...he's not far of the best of these and hoping for a Callan masterclass.
Report Can't Catch Me December 13, 2015 7:39 AM GMT
Two seconds... Typical of my run at the min Cry

Pleased for AP and Ryan though... Horse won well.
Report MrDinos December 13, 2015 8:21 AM GMT
Bad luck CCM... not gone at all well for me today. Danon Platina got an awful ride from Mr Ebina, full of running, no crack of the whip and just tried to push him up the backside of nearly every horse in front of him! Angry
Report MrDinos December 13, 2015 8:40 AM GMT
That was impressive.
Report Can't Catch Me December 13, 2015 8:54 AM GMT
Unlucky Mr D. Funnily enough I just watched the Mile back and went to the RP site to see who the horse was in the red and white silks who got such a bad run and saw it was Danon Platina. Really hard lines, he could well have won there with a bit more luck Sad
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR December 13, 2015 12:33 PM GMT
Sensational performance by the Japanese front runner in the Cup , only ever been defeated twice and this was no fluke. Irish winner was expected but with Free Eagle not Highland Reel - the former was too bad to be true but credit the latter for improving in the second half of the season notwithstanding a huge amount of travel. Ride of the day had to be Magic Man in the Sprint - I talked to a long standing HK professional after the race and he told me he improves every horse 3 lengths and is the best he has seen. Very muggy conditions at the races , if this is their winter I would hate to experience their Summer !
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR December 13, 2015 12:33 PM GMT
Sensational performance by the Japanese front runner in the Cup , only ever been defeated twice and this was no fluke. Irish winner was expected but with Free Eagle not Highland Reel - the former was too bad to be true but credit the latter for improving in the second half of the season notwithstanding a huge amount of travel. Ride of the day had to be Magic Man in the Sprint - I talked to a long standing HK professional after the race and he told me he improves every horse 3 lengths and is the best he has seen. Very muggy conditions at the races , if this is their winter I would hate to experience their Summer !
Report Can't Catch Me December 13, 2015 12:49 PM GMT
Totally agree SM... Great ride on Peniaphobia. Unless you were a Gold Fun backer Plain
Report HKAccie December 14, 2015 1:29 AM GMT
A great day but not a great day...........places but not really close!! Paying for it today........some good performances though, good rides from Moore and Magic Man.
Report ffs December 16, 2015 11:07 PM GMT
Turning in, and on Flintshire, I couldn't believe he was beaten - It's one of the most head-scratching results I've seen in ages,

Highland Reel is a good horse, and as a 2yo at Goodwood he was at his very best, but his 3yo career was short of Group1 winning form, while Flintshire coming off another excellent run in the Arc, and ofc he can be tapped for toe but with every chance ..

Aidan O'Brien, Ryan Moore coaxed about 10 lbs out of Highland Reel on all known, solid form.

How do they do it !?


More pertinently, with a view to next season, the combo look ominous and surely they'll find a Derby horse,

Wonder what fair odds on them doing the 1+2K, Oaks, Derby Quad .. ?
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