Christmas Hurdle

6/5 MTOY is very tempting. Having rewatched the International I can't have the form of the race, Jumps Road on the premises coming to the last he's 131 rated. Not to mention the 2m round Kempton will suit MTOY more than TNO imo.

Also if it's a tactical affair I'd give the edge to AP over Sam who has "balmed himself" 3 times by my count on TNO for getting there too early. I remember well AP winning the race on Straw Bear with a piece of genius in letting Harchibald get to the front too soon and then nailing him.

All told 6/5 is good price.

Kempton will suit MTOY more whereas Cheltenham will suit TNO.

For all we know one of these could be different class!!
No idea of course if that is the case, but if it is I suspect it would be MTOY.
Or put it this way,i can see MTOY winning easily but I cannot see TNO doing that.
Time will tell,and anyway it would be nice to see 2 of the more fancied horses run against each other.
Lets hope one of them don't get the sniffles!!

I think MTOY may beat TNO around Kempton too but have a feeling the market on the day will favour TNO as their is a lot more excitement and buzz around him, or it seems that way, so MTOY may be the outsider of the two at 5/4 or so. Just speculating.

The early slow pace in the international was the key to Jumps Road being flattered so much that he was allowed to also speed up, he was the first of the three to do so and even if there was a gap there, i would have expected once Zark and TNO started motoring, daylight would have opened up! JR not without pace of his own even if he is rated 120s

MTOY'S connections are of Man U/Arsenal proportions whereas TNOs are more akin to, say, Swansea City or Wigan Athletic - for me the TNO story is a bit more compelling than another JP/AP/Henderson hotpot.

Don't get me wrong, I'm pleased for them that they have MTOY after the desperate accident with Darlan last season but the NTD/STD/ lady Brummie owner combo is very likeable.

I loved young Sam's answer to Alice Plunkett about tactics on Saturday: ' I'm gonna sit behind Daryl but don't tell him!'

huge TNO fan here, but I expect MTOY to win at xmas and TNO  to reverse that form at the festival

Any chance Un De Sceaux or Annie Power will come here? Un De Sceaux may be aimed at something easier first time out which is understandable but he'd add serious intrigue to what already looks a big clash. Annie Power might not have the speed to beat the big two over two miles around Kempton but she'd want to be finishing close up behind if she's going to win a Champion Hurdle.

I do see the 6-5 on offer in odds checker but cant see it on the Stan website

Un De Sceaux looks like going to Thurles on Sunday.

I'm far more excited about un de sceaux than I am about annie power, think he'll turn out to be the better horse in the long term.

NO.    HORSE                                    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
1     PP-PPP    Chapel House          78    10    11-7    Richard Harper         74    —    —
2     1411-6    Duke Of Navan         26      5    11-7    Nicky Richards33    Brian Harding     145    127    155
3     31/4-3    Grumeti               26      5    11-7    Alan King56    Robert Thornton     151    139    163
4     1121-1    My Tent Or Yours      26      6    11-7    Nicky Henderson50    A P McCoy     160    160    170
5     332-12    Sametegal             39 t      4    11-7    Paul Nicholls50    Daryl Jacob     150    141    156
6     212-11    The New One           12      5    11-7    Nigel Twiston-Davies57    Sam Twiston-Davies     167    130    173

A friend of mine was in the hollow bottom after tno won. The owners were passing around the trophy with champagne in letting everyone have a drink and see trophy.

Very nice people wish then all the luck.

Testing ground looks like it will play to the strengths of TNO..

I wonder if TNO's connections will think that it may pay to send him on and make it a real test knowing that he stays much further, if they think that tent has a question mark against him at the death, then they may want to really make it gruelling for him.

No need to when he has a change of gear imo. It's MTOY that needs a strong pace otherwise he is keen and pulls, usually. High cruising speed.

I thought this was the tents best chance of beating the new one, but looking through the tents form especially that betfair run, I was actually surprised at how few winners have come out of that race, a few low grade handicap hurdles and some novice chase wins

I agree, I was just wondering as people seem to think that tent has a question mark at the end whether they think they could simply make it a staying contest.....as they know for a fact that their horse stays further.

There seems to be a popular opinion that MTOY has more chance of beating TNO here than in the Champion Hurdle. I disagree. MTOY pulls when there's not enough pace in the race for him, therefore a (hopefully) strong pace in the CH would be better suited than a small field in Kempton. Also all of TNO's victories have come in slowly run affairs when he can fully use his greatest asset, his turn of foot; and when he's been in a battle he's been beaten (Zarkandar at Aintree and AFC at Cheltenham were outpaced but then stayed on past him). IMO MTOY has the greater cruising speed and therefore would be better in a big field, and TNO has the better tactical acceleration and would be better in a small field. I wouldn't be surprised if TNO won at Kempton and MTOY reversed the form at Cheltenham.

People state that kempton will suit tent more because they are bracketing him in the harchibald mould and that horse was good there...the traveller who can't roll his sleeves up in a stiff finish....I've a hunch that harchi wouldn't have been able to live with the travelling ability of tent, I think off of a suicidal pace in any 2 mile race, tent will still be on the bridal with hopefully everything out on their feet....the scenario that HF faced turning in this years CH.....tent is a better hurdler than TNO too IMO.......I'm worried about a mud bath though.

The New One is indeed special. The only doubt is whether his turn of foot will be as potent as normal on this slow ground to put the distance between him and one paced bridle merchant My Tent Or Yours as he will on better ground up a hill at Cheltenham in march. Bridle merchants don't like hills especially against a horse who has the gears up them the The New One showed in the Neptune. My Tent Or Yours didn't fancy going past a slowing Champagne Fever by comparison.

This is the day My Tent will have any chance of winning as at Cheltenham The New One will be tearing him a new one.

eric i think your trying to convince urself not us!!

Agree with kavvie

What makes the pace in this race and do we think it will be a quickly run contest?

it will be as diff to ch hurd as chalk and cheese..right handed flat track heavy going or near enough v left hand undulating on good ground..i think myoy will win and tno will beat myoy in march.sadly for the pair they will be running for 2nd as our conor will win it!

chapel house might lead for for up to a mile on sufferance, though connections presumably wary of getting in the way of the others as they've virtually admitted shouldn't be in the race

Otherwise, Sametegal or Grumeti will have to lead, with the other three all hold up types.

Whatever happens, difficult to see where a strong pace is coming from.

TNO's performance at Cheltenham only confirms young Twister's view that has to come as late as possible, whilst having seen that, AP will be keen on letting TNO have first run, stopping in front and MTOY comes and does TNO for toe last 100-150 yards without chance to respond.

My Tent or Yours. The clock never lies. I hope.

I think The New One will win the Champion Hurdle, and have lumped on.

I really don't know about this one though. I don't think we'll be able to read too much into it either way, the going, course, pace and field will be totally different come March.

Bet £3.65 offering 7/1 double about either of the horses winning the Christmas and Champion Hurdle. Looks a very interesting race, pace I think will be decent enough and both the premier horses should enjoy the soft ground. I find it difficult to have a very strong view on the race, on the horses he has beaten TNO looks a worthy shorter price but there is nothing much in it from a betting perspective. Will be at Kempton tomorrow and very much looking forward to this one.

Both high class horses due to their ability to travel well off a strong pace.

The highest class of horse can also find a devastating turn of foot off such a pace and a will to pick up horses when the accelerator is on the floor. On faster ground we know The New One has that.

In this race there are 2 imponderables with regards turn of foot which are whether My Tent Or Yours has much of one in the highest class and also whether The New One's turn of foot will be effective enough on the heavy ground to get My Tent Or Yours off the bridle such that he is forced to show his. The chances are My Tent Or Yours wont get a canter round as in the Fighting Fifth and will be forced to show a turn of foot tomorrow. That is when we learn a lot about him for the future with Championship races in mind, though as the above poster said, people may claim the ground will make the race inconclusive for Cheltenham prospects which is a valid point.

My doubt with My Tent Or Yours is whether there are many gears underneath the bonnet once he comes off the bridle. This will be exposed more by the hill at Cheltenham than at Kempton. We already know the brilliant range of gears The New One has on better ground and at Cheltenham. I saw him as a Champion Hurdle winner early last season he really excited me as a novice as not only was the cruising speed there so were the gears which is relatively rare. Had a good bet for the Neptune then and on at 8s for the Champion Hurdle not without knock backs.

think the Irish might have something to say about his Champion Hurdle chances.

tent finds under pressure!

Confirms everything I thought. That race didn't suit TNO at all. Had to lead from far out. I backed MTOY today, but don't think it can beat TNO at Cheltenham.

Hopefully find some lovely prices about TNO now too.

TNO would have won barring the mistake at the last.

whoops

Sam keeps saying that going early is a mistake on TNO - then keeps doing it

They crawled to half way, which wouldn't have suited tent, he was keen....TNO took it up and increased the pace and tried to get tent at it, and coming to two out tent did come under pressure, TNO was not stopping and tent had to battle and did, yes the mistake at the last gave it to him, but tent still showed that he can battle, and in a faster CH he'll be better suited still, the worry about TNO's jumping before the race is a very real worry now, in a CH he'll lose plenty making mistakes in amongst horses doing that.

Oh dear not the best ride, in front way too soon went for it too soon even so, didnt have him right at the last finished the race with one stirrup only just beaten. That confirms The New One will be the best horse of the two at Cheltenham but we dont have the coolest jockey up.

unless they get a better jock on board TNO, I'll be a layer at Cheltenham.

Oh gosh i fear some people on here have just found their argument for the upcoming festival that will rattle on till March 11th and it will go on and on and on and on and just keep going round and round in circles with the same forumates continually typing the same old shoite using slightly different words pmsl

Though i with duffy, i felt tent would win today and do fancy TNO to beat him at chelters but i fear neither will win in March now after that however. I think people are forgetting who the reigning champ is, why cant the fly win a 3rd?

To be fair Sam was nearly in tears being interviewed there he said everything went wrong but it could be the jolt he needs to get it together in march and keep a cooler head.

They'll both improve for conditions at Cheltenham, better ground, faster pace, bigger field. The margin of victory today was small and I expect there'll be little between these two if they meet at Cheltenham.

It still makes for an exciting Champion Hurdle with plenty of opinion and debate. I was hoping neither horse would annihilate the another as that would have made the pre Cheltenham discussion a lot less exciting.

Even though I'm a big fan of the Irish battalion (Hurricane Fly, Our Conor, Jezki), I'd probably prefer to have this duo on my side going into Cheltenham. Hopefully we get a similarly close finish at Leopardstown though and rumours of Our Conor not being at his best prove to be untrue.

By the way, Sam Twiston Davies is a top jockey. I find it astonishing that someone wouldn't back The New One at Cheltenham because he was riding. I suppose all punters have their own unique way of going about finding their bets. It's not something that would put me off that's for sure.

Neither horse will win at Cheltenham. TNO is a horse without a trip. Needs at least the 2.5m hurdle at Aintree, whilst MTOY needs a fast pace and sprint finish. McCoy will be sleeping quite well tonight. Jezki is a natural. Speed and stamina in equal amounts.

Surely a fast pace and a sprint finish is contradicting? Can you have both in the one race?

Aintrees hurdle course combines both, due to the alignment of the hurdles.

Last season, TNO went close, just jockey error and lack of forethought beat the horse.

You need to be a stayer to win at Kempton,conditions today favoured TNO.

Two horses jump the last together one having been on the bridle the other doesnt like being in front too early but has led from a long way out, it misses the last slowing its momentum and the jockey loses a stirrup which hinders the horses finish. How much did the winner find off the bridle against the inconvenienced horse?

-  3 lengths or more the winner has a good turn of foot
-  1/2 length the winner doesnt find much of a turn of foot when off the bridle (evidence of this from 2 out in the Fighting Fifth also if you watch that race back)

The hill at Cheltenham will blunt the winners turn of foot even more, very short price for the Champion Hurdle imo. The New One loves Cheltenham and has Festival winning form which is a massive stat for the Champion Hurdle. You need to be a 2.5 miler elsewhere to be effective in a Champion Hurdle which is why the Neptune/Sun Alliance has produced so many Champion Hurdle winners in the past Istabraq, Hardy Eustace ... The New One will follow in their hoofsteps imo.

Today if TNO left it late he would have outkicked MTOY imo as TNO definitely has a better turn of foot. Going from the front too early off a slow pace is the worst possible tactic as we know the horses biggest and perhaps only flaw is he doesnt like going to the front too early.

The only time to kick TNO on early is off a strong pace or up a hill where a bridle horse will need to be asked early to quicken off a strong pace which is why MTOY will struggle at Cheltenham and couldnt go past Champagne Fever in the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Eric.
How many 2 and half mile races did Punjabi and Binocular win.

Katchit,Sublimity,Rooster booster,Hors la loi

I'm going to have one last go at it, this slow pace thing, what you've got to take into account is although it was slow, tent was still using up energy akin to a faster pace because he pulled, in fact mccoy said he pulled hard, so TNO is advantaged by the slow pace because as he doesn't pull his energy is saved whilst tent's isn't....that's why a faster pace suits tent better because he will use up the same energy in both instances but off of a quicker pace....the others have to too.

Duffy,spot on.
Winners of this race aint got the best record of winning the churdle,i remember ROR getting  it all wrong at the last flight like TNO.
I think you need both of these horses on your side in march,along with Jezki

yes spot on, I'll say it until im blue in the face, TNO will never have the opportunity to leave it later than MTOY because MTOY will always travel all over the TNO his cruising speed is ridiculous. TNO was settled yesterday, Mccoy had to use up so much energy just stopping the horse from tearing off. The stronger pace in the CH will play into MTOY hands.

It will Brooksie but it will also suit TNO far more too. He won't have to make the running for 5 furlongs and be left out in front sooner than ideal. If their is a strong pace for the majority of the race then the only thing TNO needs to do to win is have his kick delivered at the right time, that's it. I'm really surprised at how many people are taking a strong view on MTOY after yesterday. He simply would not have won but for TNO's mistake and that was after he had to do the donkey work. On a more testing track with a uphill finish MTOY will be massively under pressure.

If there is a strong pace that is no guarantee MTOY will settle. He is headstrong by nature.

It will Brooksie but it will also suit TNO far more too. He won't have to make the running for 5 furlongs and be left out in front sooner than ideal. If their is a strong pace for the majority of the race then the only thing TNO needs to do to win is have his kick delivered at the right time, that's it. I'm really surprised at how many people are taking a strong view on MTOY after yesterday. He simply would not have won but for TNO's mistake and that was after he had to do the donkey work. On a more testing track with a uphill finish MTOY will be massively under pressure.

If there is a strong pace that is no guarantee MTOY will settle. He is headstrong by nature.

People knocking Sam but tbh TNO backers couldn't have asked for much more bar the mistake at the last.  He didn't have a lot of options other than to go on when he did and he had a pretty easy time of things sat off the leader in a slowly run race. He had the advantage in the sprint for home. I don't think there's a lot between the two horses tbh and I don't think Cheltenham on decent ground will hinder MTOY at all. He finished a close second to one of the toughest Cheltenham specialists around who was given the ride of the festival (IMO) in the Supreme last season. I think they are the two to beat right now. Jezki may prove to be Ireland's biggest hope. I like Our Conor but there have been a few negative whispers going around so will see how he goes.

the only way MTOY will win the CH is using a pacemaker or 2 setting good fractions

Tent will have the race won before the last :) just saying :)

if they used pacemakers??? defo

that's right, Nicky will have some of the top 5f sprinters waiting at each hurdle to set tents fractions like a relay team. Tent will have each of them off the bridle.

lol not to those extremes but more like something to take them along for a mile and then something to press on for the next 4f, im glad Obrien isn't interested in this game or half the field would be his....

I am very surprised at some of the comments here. Unless he has gained stamina since last year, MTOY is the one that probably won't stay the CH course at a fast pace. He certainly didn't in the Supreme. I can see him trading short in running but TNO and Hurricane might both come past him up the hill.

I don't think MTOY will ever win the Champion Hurdle, because both a strong and a slow pace will be his undoing. If the pace is strong, The New One will both too game up the hill and we'll see a repeat of last years Supreme Novices with The New One filling Champagne Fever's role. If it's too slow (unlikely, I know), then MTOY will pull AP's head off and will find zilch off the bridle. I think The New One will win in March whatever, and have invested accordingly.

Didn't stay in the supreme,what a stupid statement,he came second,what about that other non stayer Jezki he may as well not turn up either then.

I am firmly in the TNO,s camp, but I am a fan of the tent, I keep hearing and seeing that the tent pulls too hard is wasting energy bridal ponce etc etc so why don't they use pacemakers to set a good gallop? jp has enough horses why not enter something to make the running? if he were mine that's what I would do.... still think TNO is the most likely winner at this stage...

Why does everyone think that TNO is a stayer and a battler? He's been beaten in three close finishes now and his Neptune win was slowly run until three out.

Don't think the fact he's been beaten in three close finishes means he's not a battler (in the same vein as Harchibald for example).

Exactly. But the majority of posters here seems to think he'll outbattle MTOY up the hill.

He will, imo.

jumping got to keep him in the game first mind you

Would imagine connections are aware the hill is not playing to MTOY's strengths when you look at the relative campaigning of the 2 horses.

MTOY - 11 runs with only 1 run at Cheltenham and at a Festival (2nd)

TNO - 13 runs with 6 at Cheltenham and at 2 Festivals (4 wins including the Neptune, a 2nd, 6th in Bumper)

MTOY not looking to get any experience of Cheltenham whereas TNO has virtually lived there with half his runs there and only 1 loss from 5 over sticks there.

TNO's jumping also appears to benefit up the Cheltenham hill in a finish where he grabs the ground compared to flatter tracks where the ground runs away from him.

What about the hurdles that aren't up the hill

TNO has virtually lived there with half his runs there and only 1 loss from 4 over sticks there going down by a neck in 2nd.

If you want to gripe about a horses record at a track where he has won 3 from 4 over hurdles including a Festival win with only loss by a neck then you are hard to please or your bet is talking :)

mcmanus/hendo's CH horses tend not to be campaigned at cheltenham during the season until the festival, Binocular never, Darlan ran there once as a novice but wasn't the next year, just the way they set them out...nothing in it at all, even a horse like Punjabi who was a terrier that loved the hill only ever had one run there during the season in the whole of his career other than the festival...means nothing.

Punjabi ran at Cheltenham 6 of his 23 runs for Henderson that's around 1 in 4. MTOY has run there 1 in 11 it is almost as though they have been avoiding the hill

Think you've sussed them out eric, they probably share your view that the bridal ponce will get found out by it.

Binocular ran at Cheltenham 5 times from 22 runs roughly 1 in every 4.5 which again is a far higher ration than the 1 from 11 of MTOY !

Binocular placings at Cheltenham, another cruiser who wasn't great up the hill though did win CHurdle-

2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 5th


Punjabi placings at Cheltenham-

4th, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 9th, 13th


The New One though a relatively young horse already has 3 wins from 4 over hurdles there and 1 win from 2 bumpers. Course and Festival form are extremely advantageous at Cheltenham as it is such a unique track. Anyway carry on making up your own stats to suit your bet and good luck on the race

Haven't backed him.....just want to argue the fact he's no bridal ponce..that's all, I think he proved that the other day and despite all the plaudits that the 2nd received, I don't think that tent received his due credit for actually winning the race where he had to overcome obstacles against him too.

Well my guess is you do have a financial interest in some way however we can agree to disagree because I believe the way the race unfolded suited MTOY, who had a mistake free round and target, far more than TNO where not much more could have gone wrong, yet MTOY could only win by half a length which confirmed my thoughts on him this season that he doesnt find much of a turn of foot off the bridle and the hill will emphasize this in march.

Agreed eric, I disagree pretty much completely with your last post, I think it is factually incorrect...I think that there is a complete disagreement between a few people on here regarding the most fundamental aspects of the pace issue and just who it suits....only an opinion mind you and I could quite easily have been believing the exact opposite to what is indeed the truth all this time....it wouldn't be the first time and certainly won't be the last...may the best horse win whoever it is....good luck to you sir, I wish you all the best.

Why do people say the same thing every other year about a horse? "Won't get up the hill" "bridal ponce". We had it with Binocular and the same with Sprinter Sacre. It's just a bit silly. If he comes second or third it won't be because he doesn't find anything for pressure. It will be because he's not good enough. People forget he was trained for one race last season and it wasn't the Supreme.

And if you speak to anyone that knows anything about the horse they will say the same thing. The faster the pace the better for MTOY.

Going to be some brutal Intersky Falcon style fractions at the Festival.

NTD confirming he'll use a pacemaker and I wouldn't rule out JP using Captain CeeBee in the same way for his horses too...which is probably a smart play if both Jezki and MTOY need a strong gallop because I ain't sure what NTD has in his stable that can go the clip he'll need too.