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SEATHESTARS....NO1
24 Nov 13 10:32
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Date Joined: 04 Oct 09
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forgive me for using this i typed out yesterday from another thread but i think this race needs its own thread now and its a good starter point and have always left it up to an expert to start a big race thread

The description given to Cue Cards running in last years King George chs says:

Blundered 1st and mistake 2nd, soon tracking leaders

and the last bit says:

finished tired btn 20 lengths

I rather blindly took it in that he blatantly did not get the trip in that race. I did not back him at Cheltenham on the back of that and did not back him today on the back that i thought the same and possibly (even though he wasn't stopping in the ryanair) stupidly thought that 2miles 5f round cheltenham would be approx as far as he would like to go.

However

After watching him yesterday it is now my opinion that his undoing in the KG last year was in fact most likely down to the state of the ground together with them first two mistakes after all did he not almost uproot that first fence. I do not think there is anything anywhere in his form that says he does not like going right handed. Yes he has campaigned mostly on left handed tracks but as the above poster has pointed out he has won at Ascot beating Captain Chris easily by 6 lengths and it is just a coincidence and probably more to do with the races and where they are at that he has raced mostly on left handed courses than right.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing

Dynaste

Al ferof

but i really cannot see past Cue Card, if he jumps well enough, he wins in my honest opinion!!!

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Replies: 531
By:
penzance
When: 24 Nov 13 14:49
hopeing they bring Mount Benbulben
over,although another whose jumping
might hinder his potential.Can see
him running a big race if it holds
up.On AP @20s.
   GL ALL
By:
sintonian
When: 24 Nov 13 14:56
Trouble with yesterdays Haydock race is noone,including Kirkland Tellwright, knows the exact distance and ground the race was run over.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 24 Nov 13 16:49
Was it not the flat track outside they used? Surely ridiculous to think the distance was anything other than the 3mile 1f though surely that would have been properly measured out when building the fences etc etc. I think the track suited a galloper, cue card is a true galloper and as said above if jumping holds up cant see past him personally.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 24 Nov 13 16:57
Going to be a good race though hopefully all 3 will turn up

Cue card - max bets being placed now
Dynaste - saver bets nearer the time
Al ferof - profit bets being placed now to time his price contracts

are at the moment the three i am backing though only CC and Alf right now as can only see one horse shortening up as time goes by that being CC. Meaning the other two will stay as they are. If im right, and its a long way out to be assuming this i know, i will have a nice tidy book! Throw in Captain Chris at 25s the only other one i think is overpriced at this stage as hes never ran a poor race in it.
By:
kevinglass
When: 25 Nov 13 18:40
Just watched the Betfair again. I think Dynaste can beat Cue Card. Saturday Cue Card had the run of the race, also the benefit of a race beforehand. Dynaste laid off a long way, seemed to track S.Conti till 2 out as well.

With the race under his belt, the knowledge that Cue Card will lead and stays 3m, so will stay closer, and the way he ran at Kempton last year in mind, I think he can make up the ground.

At the prices worth a bet, and I definitely can't see 3 to beat Dynaste on the day, even if Cue Card does confirm placing, so a bet to nothing, at current odds.
By:
judorick
When: 25 Nov 13 23:29
A typical winner from the racecaller stats:

Aged 6 or 7
run 1 to 3 times this season
Won last time out in the past 40 days (posting RPR of 170+)
Won over 3M+
Won 2 or more Grade 1 chases
finished 1st or 2nd over this CD
Finished in first 3 in last season’s King George and/or Gold Cup or
Second season chaser who placed in 2013 Arkle or RSA Chase
Finished in first 3 in the 2013 Betfair Chase
Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
From first 2 in the betting (priced no bigger than 8/1)

Based on that it leaves really only Cue Card, Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti and I would very confident one of those will win. Pays your money and takes your choice imo

Dynaste might absolutely love it especially on really soft and you could not put anyone off. Horses that act well here often continue to do so year after year, including in other races over C&D like RP Trophy

Silviniaco has not beaten CC in three attempts so will need CC to under perform to win

The worry when backing CC is the total mess he made of this race last year, but if you ignore that he has a huge chance especially on good to soft or better
By:
buddeliea
When: 26 Nov 13 07:04
As you know I aint a stats man Judo,plus I love Al FerofLove so I will swap him for SC.
Laugh
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 26 Nov 13 09:09
It could be a small field this year too Shocked
By:
judorick
When: 26 Nov 13 18:52
keep telling you budd

AF has never run a grade 1 time over fences and only did it once over hurdles, got no chance imo Wink
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 26 Nov 13 19:02
Do you not think Cue Cards downfall in last years George was partly ( or mainly IMO) down to Hazard trying to drop him in?
By:
buddeliea
When: 26 Nov 13 19:56
Laughevening judo
By:
shockster
When: 26 Nov 13 20:01
Judo always sits on the fence.Whoops
By:
buddeliea
When: 26 Nov 13 20:07
hopefully a barbed wire oneLaugh
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 26 Nov 13 22:24
I actually prefer cue cards chances in this as opposed to the gold cup. He needs to be ridden as close to the pace as is possible and unless there is a tear away front runner in the gold cup he can't win it. How many true front runners have won the CGC over the years i wonder? Surely not many?
I think yes you could have the same argument about the King George, but i feel this can be done from the front as long as he gets into a nice rhythm straight away and doesn't hit any! One things for sure the track will suit, you can ignore his effort last season and given more progress will be a hard nut to crack!

I really fancy him as well as most on here but again would not put anyone off backing any of the other 3 in the betting either - Dynaste, Sylviniaco conti (but you got to believe he needed that run, given it was a grade 1 and my rule on them, he was ready for haydock and wont) and Al Ferof
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Nov 13 06:48
Difference here is we have actually got a front runner that looks well good enough.
Its not like he will go off like  a scalded cat,he just is more comfortable being up with the pace.
He has a high cruising speed and the way he ran on Saturday suggests he will maintain that pretty much all the way.stayers without his pace will be left too far behind if he gets into a nice jumping rhythm,which he tends to do when up with the pace.
Out of the 2 I actually think the Gold Cup is his best chance as I think Dynaste will be better suited by Kempton.
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 27 Nov 13 11:25
Won at Ascot beating Captain Chris easily by 6L

Did you watch the race? I think that you should be reminded that Captain Chris was laying down to Cue Card until 2 out when Captain Chris reached for the fence and lost all momentum.

So i see that form at Ascot as Cue Card beating Ghizao 7.5L. Which i believe is below his left handed form. However i will point that Joe Tizzard kept steadying Cue Card at his fences which i didn`t like and the horse was losing ground at a few fences.

If Cue Card is allowed to dictate at Kempton and JT does not steady the horse into his fences quite as often then he has a favourites chance but it is still a very competitive race.
By:
knot in wood
When: 28 Nov 13 09:45
call me stupid,but ive had little bet ew long run for this at 20s.

looks a certain starter,on a track he seems to show his best form.
cannot win on this years form,but might sneak in to a place.

come the day,fair possibility we will have a small field and he will not be a 20s chance.
if a few at the top of the market underperform,who knows.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 28 Nov 13 16:14
well knot in wood if the going happens to be heavy  like last year  then your 20/1 will look very generous imo .
By:
judorick
When: 28 Nov 13 16:26
yup, I'm with Budd

Cue Card has an outstanding chance of winning the Gold Cup:

loves the track
likely to get his preferred going
2 x Festival winner, both wide margin wins
only Sprinter Sacre can definitely claim to be a better chaser than him (Timeform have CC 2nd highest)
learnt to settle now so staying not an issue
still has scope to improve after 1 successful 3 mile chase (lifetime high RPR 180)
yard have only just demonstrated his staying ability, can be more positive in future races
prime of his life at 8 years old

he's clear favourite for the Gold Cup in my mind
By:
breadnbutter
When: 02 Dec 13 12:57
After CC won the bumper he was beaten in 6 out of his next ten starts ,including a very soft unseat at chelt slaughtered by menorah early season  ,beaten by Bobsworth in a very unsavoury race at newbury ,beaten all ends up in the  supreme when it hung The race it won at Ascot was actually another it should have lost ,the ryan air it won was the softest G1 race i have seen at chelt for many a year and the soft lead it was given was laughable ,even the 3m1f race at haydock it won is shrouded in mystery as the time was quicker than when the race was run over 3m ...everything about CC makes me want to throw up .

To now suggest this horse is the second coming and make a case for it winning the KG and GC is incredulous .
Hope events conspire to see justice is done  and nothing would give me more pleasure than to see the horse beaten in both races .

bitter ...you bet .

after a long time of looking a non staying one paced bad head carrying blunder prone quirky tripless nag it now has KG/GC double written all over it ....maybe needs a test you say ,i know what test i would give it .
By:
duffy
When: 02 Dec 13 13:21
In case you're being serious, I've got the details of a very good bodyguard available to forward onto you for when lord judo of ricksville calls roundShocked
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 13 13:29
be interested to know why you are bitter

I have a totally different assessment of the horse of course and am not going down the 'ah but here's a contradictory view' route with you. Just think you are over complicating everything
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 02 Dec 13 13:37
it's the bad head carrying bit that amuses me - Tidal Bay gets the same.

Seb Coe looked like he was floating, Radcliffe painful to watch but no marks for artistic impression, do what comes naturally/is most comfortable and get from A to B quicker than the others.

It's not bad, it's just idiosyncratic.
By:
duffy
When: 02 Dec 13 13:47
If anyone wants to target the head carriage and site it as a negative they've got to realize they are doing so in an unusual instance where the horse is performing exceptionally, usually we have these discussions on the back of poor runs looking for excuses/reasons, if this is indeed a negative, then it makes the basic ability of the horse greater still.
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 13 14:01
it's all about ability and how you judge it

If you were to plot a graph of:

number of chasers in training against BHA mark

you would find that once you get to 170 the graph starts to drop very steeply and when you get to the high 170s the population is very low indeed with maybe 2 or 3 at any one time

Cue Card is in that top 2 or 3 chasers currently, only Sprinter Sacre and Bobs Worth are higher rated. Like it or not he is a multi Grade 1 winner who has only just learned to race correctly in the last year, is 7 years old and just entering the prime of his life. He is all set to win more races over the next 18 months approximately by which he will be 9 going on 10
By:
breadnbutter
When: 02 Dec 13 14:01

Dec 2, 2013 -- 8:21AM, duffy wrote:


In case you're being serious, I've got the details of a very good bodyguard available to forward onto you for when lord judo of ricksville calls round


the dogs are barking louder and louder

By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 13 14:05
I'm happy for everyone to share your opinion, means I get better prices

why are you bitter? That is intriguing
By:
breadnbutter
When: 02 Dec 13 14:15
so what was your estimation of the horses 6 defeats after it won the bumper ?

how did your crystal ball predict its chances ? and what did you think of its run in last years KG ? did you back it ?
By:
duffy
When: 02 Dec 13 14:15
b&b
self appointed, that isGrin SillyWink
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 13 14:29
I have posted my analysis continually on many threads about Cue Card, I'm not re-posting it all

I did not back Cue Card in the 2012 King George -See the thread that was bumped, started by Foyleswar. The reason being the desperately heavy going

The Arkle form + Haldon Gold Cup + comparison to other top staying chasers lead to an unconscious realisation that CC was likely to be a stayer rather than a 2 to 2.5 miler when he learnt to settle AND the assessment of the form which said to me that he was likely to achieve chase ratings in excess of 180, likely middle 180s, which I also posted

And the knowledge that at any one time there are unlikely to be more than 2 or 3 horses capable of such high ratings meant that CC had a strong chance of being a champion
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 13 14:40
should say that everything before he went chasing I treat as hardly relevant, even the Supreme, because hurdling is just preparation and passing time till they go chasing so Cue Card barely registered on my radar
By:
breadnbutter
When: 02 Dec 13 15:17
the OP states CC nearly uprooted the first fence in last years KG ,NOT TRUE ,did not touch the fence .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9eLGjUDf_M

goes on to say he easily beat captain chris at ascot ,cant agree with either statement ,CC was  lucky at ascot imo .

both statements  have went unchallenged and i find them glaringly inaccurate ,and lets not forget there was only 16 fences at Kempton last year so maybe the race was slightly longer than stated .

have a look at CC between 3 out and two out ,yet you suggest the  horse is now a 26.5 furlong animal ?

or maybe last year was also a bit like the novice days as well ,think you quickly  had the horse all tipped up for the ryan air shortly after ? even though many  felt the QM was a viable option ,if last year they said they were stepping up to 3m 2.5f at chelt they would have been laughed out  .

what makes you think it wont be deja vu and the ryan air will again  be where it ends up or maybe even back to 2m should anything untoward happen to SS ? 

kg ...wont jump around kempton imo ,even when it does slightly stand off its a low jumper,wont jump cant stay

GC....if CC wins the GC i will run naked around and over the course straight after .

then come and fight  duffy and the hitman in the owners bar Laugh (one hand tied behind my back to make it fair )
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Dec 13 15:40
Some ridiculous comments Bread&butter. I hope Al Ferof wins the King George so am against Cue Card in that sense but some of the stuff you have posted is a nonsense.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 02 Dec 13 15:41
Very dry forecast for the rest of the month in the south east - it had alerady dried out to good at Newbury last weekend so could they actually need to water at Kempton!!!Shocked

I'm still worried about Cue Cards run last year - I just remember Imperial Commander running two lamentable races in the KG - after the first of which he won the Ryanair (just like Cue Card last season), and the 2nd time he subsequently won the Gold Cup. Have a feeling lightning may strike twice. I'll probably be looking to place lay Cue Card.
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Dec 13 16:26
I aint,it was heavy ground, and he did,nt settle.
Unlees its heavy again I see nothing to worry about,especially as they now know he stays well, and will be up with the pace that the horse enjoys,unlike last year.
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Dec 13 16:36
Hope events conspire to see justice is done  and nothing would give me more pleasure than to see the horse beaten in both races .
bitter ...you bet .
after a long time of looking a non staying one paced bad head carrying blunder prone quirky tripless nag it now has KG/GC double written all over it ....maybe needs a test you say ,i know what test i would give it .



What the f*ck is that all about???Shocked
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 13 16:42
wonder where all this bitterness (about a racehorse) comes from ConfusedConfused

very strange, never seen anything like it
By:
shockster
When: 02 Dec 13 18:19
Have got to say B&B you do have issues.  It's horse racing and can't believe how CC has got under your skin. I'd be against CC for the GC but it would not be the greatest shock now if he pulls it off nor the KG.
By:
alleged22
When: 02 Dec 13 19:49
im warming to cue card its hard not to. but  imo if the betfair was run again in 4 weeks I think we would have diferent placings all round, the winner was race fit and the best horse in the race on official ratings ran a stinker
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