Doncaster November handicap nov 9th

already on it

much will depend on who makes the final decs

look forward to your findings mr judorick

Like Roger Charltons one here Border Legend and also Highland Legend at a bigger price.

Nicholascopernicus

forgotten hero and open eagle for me at the moment

Ajman Bridge ½ Point Win on at moment. Lightly raced Cumani 3YO, had a sighter over 10F on Town Moor last time (funny race with winner given soft lead) and being by Dubawi, should relish step up in trip and soft going (maybe gd-sft by Sat) should hold no terrors. May top up once a certain runner.

Some handy stats on this race:

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=405999

Thomas Hobson sold to Willie Mullins and out of the race

I backed Communicator in this race last year when he was runner-up. He came into the race in excellent form having finished 2nd to Tominator previously at Chester. This year his handicap mark is 3lb lower so he can clearly win, however he has been in no form whatsoever and has not raced for 86 days. Maybe he has been saved for the race? I'm not sure, but it's a leap of faith to back him albeit at 25/1.

Shrewd is an interesting one given he won 3 times on Soft or Heavy ground. 25/1 also.

Shrewd and Rhombus come out best on the OLBG guy's blog stats.

At a big price, if the ground would just dry up a bit then the Johnson trained Statutory would seemingly have some chance on various bits of pieces of form, eg. 2nd to Pether's Moon at Goodwood, beating Shrewd at Ripon but can't see the word soft not being in the going decription though there is little rain forecast before Saturday and Town Moor does dry quickly.

So does Ascot mate but it is the time of year where the ground takes for ever to dry with heavy dew mornings. I suspect it will be Soft on Saturday like Ascot was for Champions Day.

Johnston not Johnson

FFS Salutation not Statutory......might get something right eventually.

You got a short list yet Rick?

am working on it right now

keepgetting distracted by the weights for the Paddy Power though, must focus

right have been through the whole field and none have an ideal profile for the race, so now it gets down to fine judgement calls as to whether the ones that miss narrowly get on the short list or not

will be much easier when the final decs are in

Look forward to your thoughts Rick

You would have thought Mullins would have run Thomas Hobson. Big chance for a decent pot, why wouldn't you?

might interfere with the schedule for schooling and planning the hurdles campaign, specially if the horse had a hard race and needed time to recover? just guessing

The entry is held by those that make it, so Mullins could only run if Gosden declared it.

'Long' short list

6     21591        Open Eagle 46      4    9-1    David O´Meara36    Daniel Tudhope     95     75     113
9     348063        Awake My Soul 24    4    9-0    David O´Meara36    Daniel Tudhope     94     88     115
10     0-5726        Nicholascopernicus 14      4    8-13    Ed Walker83         93     87     113
12    4-3004        Communicator 84      5    8-11    Andrew Balding70    David Probert     91     106     119
14     2-0831        Border Legend 31    4    8-9    Roger Charlton100    Graham Lee     89     91     112
15    87250        Albert Bridge 28      5    8-8    Ralph Beckett64    Jim Crowley     88     105     115
16    9-1113        Bohemian Rhapsody 78      4    8-8    Seamus Durack100    Martin Harley     88     107     114
17    1-123        Ajman Bridge 15    3    8-6    Luca Cumani50    Andrea Atzeni     92     82     111
21     12023-    16    Swnymor 28J      4    8-5    Rebecca Curtis         85     —     —
23     013604    14    Shrewd 53      3    8-4    Michael Bell22    Luke Morris     90     110     116
24     312417    13    Rhombus 33      3    8-4    Ismail Mohammed100    Silvestre De Sousa     90     106     113
27     141822    10    Astra Hall 15      4    8-2    Ralph Beckett64    Jimmy Quinn     82     86     113
29     322421    8    Autun 51    3    8-1    Brian Ellison73         87     101     106

Very good chance the winner is among these, see final decs next stage as some of these won't run

Last time out winners not got a great record in this (Only 1 of last 10 winners) which doesn't bode well for 3 of those (Open Eagle, Border Legend and Autun).

I've just finished my first trawl of the decs
My short list......
6
9
11 Forgotten Hero
17
19
27
32 Zipp

Another trawl due on Friday

Decs now out, Ajman Bridge not declared.

Hi There, Forgotten Hero & Lahaag are last time out winners aswell. Pointless stat that one imo.

agreed

LTO Winners of Nov Hcp
86 Beijing 3yo
90 Azzaam 3yo
92 Turgenev 3yo
95 Snow Princess 3yo
97 Sabadilla 3yo
02 Red Wine 3yo
07 Malt or Mash 3yo

Yes, you are both correct in your assumptions over Lahaag & Forgotten Hero

As far as I am aware no older horse has won when wlto since 1981 (my records start 1982 covering 32 races) and glancing at past races there have been at least 24 races, where at least one horse 4yo and older has wlto in the race

Of course that also means the following won't be winning..
Border Legend
Open Eagle
High There
Twelve Strings

if you can get on with 365 they are 1/4 odds first 5,bog and also have the 4-1+ offer also.

2 against the field for me at decent odds.

shrewd and communicator.

Rhombus

I quite like the ratings angle for this race, with quite a narrow band for winners between 93 and 99 which cuts down the field considerably. With stamina doubts about Awake My Soul and Conduct, both being unproven at 10F plus, reservations about Open Legal being bumped up 7lbs for winning LTO and the foreign form being unfathomable to me, this leaves Nicholas Copernicus and Highland Castle, both of whom ran in the same race that last year's winner ran in, over course and distance, two weeks ago. Both stay further than 12F especially Highland Castle (although is a quirky individual to say the least) and both could be suited by what maybe a stronger run race. At the current prices, generally 12/1 and 16/1 I think I will dutch these. Good luck to all who play.

This is cut from OLBG site mentioned previously

TRENDS

I will be using 8 trends for this race, the 8 trends i will be using are - Age, Weight, Official Rating, Last Time Out, Last Run, Runs this year, Wins this year & Distance
Age
All of the last 10 winners were aged 3, 4 or 5

POSITIVES = Aiken, Lahaag, Hi There, Nearly Caught, Open Eagle, Thomas Hobson, Highland Castle, Awake My Soul, Nicholascopernicus, Forgotten Hero, Communicator, Border Legend, Albert Bridge, Bohemian Rhapsody, Ajman Bridge, Swnymor, Shrewd, Rhombus, Twelve Strings, Ex Oriente, Astra Hall, Salutation, Autun, One Pursuit, Dark Ruler, Zipp, Sioux Chieftain, Ebony Express, Blue Wave & Corton Lad
Weight
7 of the last 10 winners carried 8-13 or less to victory

POSITIVES = Nicholascopernicus, Forgotten Hero, Communicator, Kiama Bay, Border Legend, Albert Bridge, Bohemian Rhapsody, Ajman Bridge, Cousin Khee, Cashpoint, Itlaaq, Swnymor, Rio´s Rosanna, Shrewd, Rhombus, Twelve Strings, Ex Oriente, Astra Hall, Salutation, Autun, One Pursuit, Dark Ruler, Zipp, Sioux Chieftain, Ebony Express, Blue Wave & Corton Lad
Official Rating
9 of the last 10 winners were rated between 93 & 99

POSITIVES = Hi There, Conduct, Open Eagle, Highland Castle, Awake My Soul & Nicholascopernicus
Last Time Out
9 of the last 10 winners did not win on their last start

POSITIVES = Aiken, Nearly Caught, Conduct, Highland Castle, Awake My Soul, Nicholascopernicus, Communicator, Kiama Bay, Albert Bridge, Bohemian Rhapsody, Ajman Bridge, Cousin Khee, Cashpoint, Itlaaq, Swnymor, Rio´s Rosanna, Shrewd, Rhombus, Ex Oriente, Astra Hall, Salutation, Zipp, Sioux Chieftain, Blue Wave & Corton Lad
Last Run
8 of the last 10 winners ran over 3 weeks ago (22 days or more)

POSITIVES = Lahaag, Nearly Caught, Conduct, Open Eagle, Awake My Soul, Forgotten Hero, Communicator, Border Legend, Albert Bridge, Bohemian Rhapsody, Cousin Khee, Swnymor, Shrewd, Rhombus & Autun

Runs This Year
9 of the last 10 winners had at least 5 runs that year

POSITIVES = Lahaag, Hi There, Nearly Caught, Open Eagle, Thomas Hobson, Highland Castle, Awake My Soul, Forgotten Hero, Kiama Bay, Albert Bridge, Cousin Khee, Cashpoint, Itlaaq, Rio´s Rosanna, Shrewd, Rhombus, Twelve Strings, Astra Hall, Salutation, Autun, Dark Ruler, Zipp, Ebony Express, Blue Wave & Corton Lad

Wins This Year
8 of the last 10 winners won at least once that year

POSITIVES = Lahaag, Hi There, Nearly Caught, Open Eagle, Thomas Hobson, Highland Castle, Awake My Soul, Forgotten Hero, Kiama Bay, Border Legend, Bohemian Rhapsody, Ajman Bridge, Cousin Khee, Cashpoint, Itlaaq, Shrewd, Rhombus, Twelve Strings, Astra Hall, Salutation, Autun, One Pursuit, Dark Ruler, Zipp, Sioux Chieftain, Ebony Express, Blue Wave, Corton Lad
Distance
8 of the last 10 winners had won over at least 12 furlongs before winning this

POSITIVES = Aiken, Lahaag, Nearly Caught, Open Eagle, Thomas Hobson, Highland Castle, Nicholascopernicus, Forgotten Hero, Communicator, Kiama Bay, Albert Bridge, Bohemian Rhapsody, Cousin Khee, Cashpoint, Itlaaq, Swnymor, Rio´s Rosanna, Shrewd, Rhombus, Twelve Strings, Ex Oriente, Astra Hall, Salutation, One Pursuit, Ebony Express & Blue Wave
Results from 8 trends

7 x Shrewd
7 x Rhombus

6 x Nearly Caught
6 x Open Eagle
6 x Highland Castle
6 x Awake My Soul
6 x Forgotten Hero
6 x Albert Bridge
6 x Bohemian Rhapsody
6 x Cousin Khee
6 x Astra Hall
6 x Salutation
6 x Ebony Express
6 x Blue Wave

5 x Lahaag
5 x Nicholascopernicus
5 x Communicator
5 x Kiama Bay
5 x Cashpoint
5 x Itlaaq
5 x Swnymor
5 x Twelve Strings
5 x Autun
5 x Corton Lad

4 x Hi There
4 x Thomas Hobson
4 x Border Legend
4 x Ajman Bridge
4 x Rio´s Rosanna
4 x Ex Oriente
4 x One Pursuit
4 x Dark Ruler
4 x Zipp
4 x Sioux Chieftain

3 x Aiken
3 x Conduct
Conclusion

2 horses top the trend results with 7 passes from 8 trends used

Shrewd & Rhombus both fail on the same trend of Official Ratings, 9 of the last 10 winners were rated between 93 & 99, both horses are rated 90, which happens to be 1lb higher than the lowest rated winner (89) in the last 10 years.


The most interesting thing (for me) is that the Author uses the positives for his conclusions.

Last year I made a table of the NEGATIVESI can't list all of them but some negative comments are attached to my original table.

Comments 
1-30 top wts but that had Listed win
Yet to see a Group runner winner
No dual B hc 4yo winner
Too few races as 3yo & 4yo
Three 10f wins unusual for 3yo



The end result was...
I could knock all the runners for various 30 year stats reasons EXCEPT….
Nicholascopernicus
Party Line
Art Scholar (winner)

Blue Surfer also has no negatives, but from the last sixteen 3yo winners none have won 10f three times. This race might not be the one to ask him to win over 12f?
Saying that 8 of the last 30 winners were winning their first race over 12f, but only three were 3yo's and one of those had won 3 races over further.

I would be wary of Suroor with Retrieve. The trainer has run a few since 2005 and in each of the five races a big named trainer has won the race.
He came close with Willing Foe last year (2nd) and runs three Group 1 horses this year!! Retrieved's form over 12f is outstanding for this hcp BUT in last 30 years no winner has had group form.

My bets on the day
Betfair
Art Scholar
24.77    £20.90    £496.88 (winner)

Nicholascopernicus
9.543    £28.00    £239.20

Retrieve
30.88    £2.00    £59.76

Blue Surf
14.08    £10.00    £130.81

Party Line
15.62    £8.00    £116.99

I had backed Communicator Ante Post (2nd)

This years race contains two of those selected last year.

That Rhombus stayed on really well and powered clear when he had some soft ground at Thirsk, he did go up 8lb but still he is unbeaten on softer than good and I think he will go close.

Swnymor is another who revels in this ground and he's not on a bad mark, I was a bit disappointed with his first run over hurdles for Curtis but I'll chance him

Also a small bet on Rio's Rosanna who is not out of it if she settles better and is on a going day.

so 3 for me
RHOMBUS 16/1 Main bet
SWNYMOR 25/1 decent bet
RIOS ROSANNA 33/1 small bet

Stevie G when they quickened at Thirsk he struggled but after a bit of urging the way he stayed on was impressive indeed. A strongly run race on this ground will see a further improvement I think. Only bet in the race for me.

that was in class 4, he's now in class 2 off 8lb higher

i think hes improving though judo. Do you think he wont be good enough?

yes, exactly what I think

Lahaag,Open Eagle and Highland Castle are three with obvious claims. But Rio's Rosanna can be given a squeak of cattling all three of them. 33/1 Rio's Rosanna will do for me.

I'm sticking with Border Legend and Highland Castle. BL is lightly raced for a 4yo and although he only won a class 4 last time out he did it nicely enough after being slowly away and the trainer described his win as ''with a bit in hand''. Soft ground is a little bit of an unknown but his sire does get plenty who handle 12f with cut, e.g Cubanita and others.

Highland Castle because he stays the trip strongly, has been rated as high as 106 in the past, and worth remembering Johnny Murtagh rode him last time out so I suspect the trainer was expecting him to go close to winning, which he should probably have done had he not hung across the track.

Horses have won this race stepping up from 10f and also dropping back in trip from races like the Cesarewith.

Forgotten Hero @ 20/1 on here for me, with a small saver on Swynmor.

Border Legend is 9lb better off with Lahaag for 3/4 length when they raced over 1m in October last year. It just depends if he gets the 12f as we know Lahaag will.

Where you sticking your cash in this one Rick?

not decided yet

I have also backed Ex Oriente at big odds because he could be the surprise package. Not badly weighted on his best form and I note the Ladbroke racing office have him at a relatively low price. He goes well for Nicky.

ended up backing:

Communicator
Nicholascopernicus
Swnymor

Why is Moore not at Donny 2moro?
Was expecting him to be on Conduct?

Swynmoor  is sure to get  the trip, an attribute  not to be underestimated in a field dominated by ten furlong types .In his last  run on the Flat  in October  2012  he ran third to  Mohican the Horse in second place was  Art Scholar who went on to win the November Handicap last year  , He was running on at the end of that  race  ,it was imo  a very creditable  run for a three year old .
As tomorrows race will be his  first run on the flat since then the Handicapper has  not had any  opportunity  to raise him a few pounds , there are plenty of good Horses in the race and if they go a crawl   one of  these will probably win , but if it is attritional  then he has a  very good ew chance from  his  draw in  stall six , already suggested by UP and Judo  btw , so blame them if it Bombs

Open Eagle
Nicholascopernicus
Swnymor

for me

I'm on Shrewd and Swinmoor (like plenty of others on here), and I may have a saver on Bohemian Rhapsody too

CONDUCT for me

Sorry Facts I'm with you :p Conduct has to run a massive race. I always like a Haggas runner in a big handicap especially in Yorkshire.Been kept in training as a 6yo for connections who aren't stupid. Steps up in trip which should be a big bonus. Seb Saunders a no nonsense jockey so all is in place for a very big run.

'Long' short list

6     21591        Open Eagle 46      4    9-1    David O´Meara36    Daniel Tudhope     95     75     113
9     348063        Awake My Soul 24    4    9-0    David O´Meara36    Daniel Tudhope     94     88     115
10     0-5726        Nicholascopernicus 14      4    8-13    Ed Walker83         93     87     113
12    4-3004        Communicator 84      5    8-11    Andrew Balding70    David Probert     91     106     119
14     2-0831        Border Legend 31    4    8-9    Roger Charlton100    Graham Lee     89     91     112
16    9-1113        Bohemian Rhapsody 78      4    8-8    Seamus Durack100    Martin Harley     88     107     114
21     12023-    16    Swnymor 28J      4    8-5    Rebecca Curtis         85     —     —
23     013604    14    Shrewd 53      3    8-4    Michael Bell22    Luke Morris     90     110     116
24     312417    13    Rhombus 33      3    8-4    Ismail Mohammed100    Silvestre De Sousa     90     106     113


Very good chance the winner is among these, see final decs next stage as some of these won't run

I'll go with Border Legend, took the 21.0 on here, tad generous. Didn't run at 2, lightly raced, fresh horse, looks an improver. Travelled well last time, easy win, only up 4lb.

up 5lb not 4.

I seem to have mugged myself by taking 12/1 ante-post, Soul. He's touched 22's on here. Looks like it's just me and you who have backed him.

Doubt if Open Eagle will beat Rio's Rosanna (stone better off) this time!

Already gone forSwnymor but must  also have a small bet on 'High there ', It has taken the stable a long time to realise he is  a middle distance Horse  and of course the Handicapper has noted the improvement , but the  five pounds  rise for winning last time out is very fair,  many horses get ten pounds  or so for winning so easily  , he goes very well in heavy ground  and was not flagging  at the  end over ten furlongs  last time out .Will he get  twelve furlongs? , visually you would have to say he would , will he be good enough  even if he does ,  will back him e/w to find out  gl

sint, 14's highest price with bookies, only 12 with my bookies so had to bet on here.

Highland Castle for me. bit of a rogue but has the ability

Rio's Rosanna a bit of a snip at 60/1 on here!

An impossible race for me but I will throw 3 in

Nicholascopernicus
Bohemian Rhapsody
Open Eagle

Good luck all

Since 1982 As far as I'm aware two horses that ran previously in Nov Hcp (Nicholascopernicus & Communicator) won following year
They were 5yo Tropical Straight (4th) and up 9lb and 4yo Group Captain (5th) and up 6lb on previous year.
Both had won a class 3 and were 2nd in class hcp in current year.

Communicator hasn't done either and has run at Group level - which no past winner in the period has done.
Nicholascopernicus hasn't won but did finish 2nd in Donc hcp recently.

I should have mentioned that both are now on lower ratings than last year. Whether that is a positive will have to wait until the result.

Until the draw was made was interested in Conduct & Nicholascopernicus.
Sadly both are drawn in the car park (not ideal).
So only a small interest on both for me 2day.
Gd luck all.

3 time in the last 10 years winners have come from stall 17 or higher, each time on soft to heavy going

draw no obstacle today, if anything low draws might be racing on the worst going

Not much incitement to back with confidence this year.

There are a couple I've left in because of the "nearly" basis.
5yo & 6yo's that won were usually 2nd on last run and a winner current year doesn't quite include

Nicholascopernius was one of my 5 qualifiers last year. The Doncaster C%D win makes it a possible. (4yo winners all had win or placed form at track and all bar one of the last 31 winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last 3 races)

Gone through the negatives and those that also qualify are,
Rhombus (Since 1986 only Come On Jonny was unplaced on last run in this age category)
Nearly Caught (highest value race win for 3yo winners of this race though, but inflation cause probably)

Awake My Soul would have been 2nd on final run if not for the heavy going (I'm struggling with this one, so £2))
Bohemian Rhapsody will break the days absence record if it wins today (£2)
Highland Castle just lost 2nd place near line latest but ran into a place at track.

Previous years draws 82-3003
Hvy going
20/25 Saxon Maid 3yo filly
14/21 Batswing 5yo
20/24 Red Wine 3yo

Ground looks atrocious.

Heavy Ground performers
Aiken (won)
High There (won)
Rhombus (won)
Shrewd (won 2yo)
Open Eagle (won)
Swynmor (two 2nds0
Nicholascapernius (2nd)

There are a fair few horses in this race that have won on Soft, too. Literally a lottery, good luck all.

wd winners

Ah well at least one of the Favs one. WD Conduct backers.

Gd performance from Conduct 2day
Looked the winner from some way out, classy.
Nice way to end the flat of 2013
Hope yeez have had a successful season punters & all the best for the NH Season.
Off for some much needed sun on Monday for a few wks
CHEERS.

slowerthanjohn

A satisfying result ( for us both)

Well done winners

Hey Facts ;) yes a good day. Was a class above, Mr Haggas is some man :)

An honourable mention to those who backed Rio Rosanna who was unlucky to run into a probable Listed/Group horse.

Thank you for your kind commiseration - I backed her (Rio's Rosanna) at prices 70/1 - 50/1 to win 10k - and didn't imagine she would be beaten so comprehensively!  Should have had place bet to cover (being wise after the event!). Conduct certainly a class above!

Bad luck she ran a great race just ran into one, what price was she for a place?

I'm afraid I didn't look at the exchange place market, but she paid £10.10 on the nanny goat. Definitely worth a place / each way saver!

Would have been but when I gamble I use the cake theory! I want all the cake and not part of it

I suffer from the same affliction!

The trouble is on here some of the lesser fancied horses are silly prices. Like next Saturdays Paddy Power I've backed Colbert station at 100's+ because if he does turn up he has a decent chance and is no 100's chance but probably won't come over