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aft
29 Sep 13 12:10
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Date Joined: 28 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 236 | Blogger: aft's blog
Was anyone else deeply impressed by the Cesarewitch Trial last week, in which the first three stormed clear of a competitive field?
Looking at the collateral form I consider that this race is currently underrated by as much as ten pounds, although the implication of this has to be that Oriental Fox put up a (much improved) top drawer performance. Inexplicable as it may be, I believe this to be the fact and view it as a scintillating achievement.
Having regard to the Cesarewitch, given the penalty he incurred and mindful of the possibility of him going for the Champions Long Distance Cup a week later, I think that the horse to take out from the race is Brockwell who was also running on stoutly though just outpaced.
I am astonished that he still trades at 25/1 as half that price would be generous in my opinion.

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Replies: 119
By:
trimmer
When: 29 Sep 13 18:54
aft    Fancied Brockwell for Ces.since his unlucky run in New.Plate.
His only below run was at Hay.wnen gnd.was like a road.Track at Goodwood was not ideal,but
showed he is a stayer.Was given a poor ride at Ascot,and might have needed run last time out.
Race did not go to plan.He sat to handy,and front runner fell away 6f.out.Brockwell found
him self in front too early.Looks a real good e.w.bet,and has a sim.profile to Tominator.
Could easily had another 5 or 6 lbs.more to carry if granted more luck in running.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 29 Sep 13 19:05
Body Language has since boosted the form as well when running seemingly above himself in a listed race on Friday.
By:
Figgis
When: 29 Sep 13 19:09
It wasn't a fluke, he also clocked a good time at the weights earlier in the season at Goodwood, however, he doesn't seem the most reliable performer.
By:
trimmer
When: 29 Sep 13 19:17
Ces.does look a harder race than trial though.
By:
Figgis
When: 29 Sep 13 19:19
Oriental Fox, that is.
By:
judorick
When: 29 Sep 13 23:31
there's only a handful at best that are on a mark they can win off, look forward to whittling them down when I've examined the last 20 odd runnings

going will as ever be crucial
By:
aft
When: 30 Sep 13 00:40
I reckon that Brockwell ran to a mark of 106 in 'The Trial' against his current figure of 91.....
By:
judorick
When: 30 Sep 13 00:52
I don't sorry, 96 ish in my book
By:
aft
When: 30 Sep 13 01:22
That is the conventual wisdom......You presumably have Body Language running to 88.....I believe she ran to 98.......Time will tell if either of us is right (or that the reality lies somewhere in between).
By:
judorick
When: 30 Sep 13 07:44
That then means, if you think Brockwell ran to 106 that Oriental Fox who gave him 8lbs and a 5 length beating ran to somewhere around 120? (ie. 106 +8lbs more carried + what you award for the 5 lengths

If that's the case Oriental Fox will gag up off 104

Oriental Fox did not realistically improve about 15lb+ in one race (previous best RPR 105)

or at least logical assessment says it's highly unlikely, 5 or 6lbs is more likely

hence Brockwell improved 5 or 6lbs to run 96/97 ish

I mean he was beaten 4 lengths in his previous race and RPR rated that effort 93, and he was 3rd in The Plate and that got RPR 97 and he was only beaten 1.75 lengths

We shall see but in my experience handicappers rarely improve by the amounts you are suggesting in reality and using collateral form from a non handicap race is not solid footing imo
By:
aft
When: 30 Sep 13 08:36
Everything you say is true and I have acknowledged that my proposition seems extraordinary, particularly as regards the dramatic improvement of the first three. However I would not lightly disregard the performance of the rest of the field and still feel that this strange result will prove to have been a startling achievement by Oriental Fox.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 30 Sep 13 09:02
I think if you look at Body Language's Beverley win you can also see he beat Platinum and Nashville and both those 2 horses have won off higher marks since so this does add some substance to the form. However for me personally on my speed figures I don't have Body Language any higher that mid 80s even on that last run but I'm not sure how reliable my speed figures are over the longer distances sometimes.

If we look at cosimo de Medici in that ces trial then it is possible to assume he could have run to his mark given he has won the ces trial before off 84. However more recently the horse has finished 2nd off 80 at Goodwood and 80 is the sort of figure I would think CDM is. Anyway all in all I do think Brockwell has around 5 or 6 lb in hand and  he is proven over c/d and has run well in these big handicaps so yes 25s looks a reasonable price and Oriental Tiger must have a good chance as well.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 30 Sep 13 09:30
Anyway my speed figures for that race were
Oriental Tiger 107
Body Language 85
Brockwell 93
CDM 76

I can't rate it any higher really as 12f race on same card i have
Phenomena running to 92 after 6lb wfa.
By:
Facts
When: 30 Sep 13 10:10
Was happy enough with PALLASATOR's last run to take a price.
By:
Spirit
When: 30 Sep 13 10:16
I think if smokey hill came across,would have a massive chance,ran in the arc trial.
By:
aft
When: 30 Sep 13 15:44
judo
In the interests of constructive debate, would you be willing to assess the Trial race as the result would have been without the participation of 'the first three' (i e had Cosimo de Medici won from Burnham etc) and reveal what rating you would have given to CDM in those circumstances?
By:
aft
When: 30 Sep 13 16:16
My assessment would have been:

90 Cosimo de Medici       RPR previous run   90
81 Burnham......................  "          "         "      86
88 Arch Villain...................  "          "         "      96
76 Samba Silver................  "          "         "      85
71 Valid Reason................     Best  RPR         86
70 Teak...........................  RPR previous run   80
CoolConfused
By:
aft
When: 30 Sep 13 16:25
My assessment would have been:

90 Cosimo de Medici         RPR previous run   90
81 Burnham......................  "          "         "      86
88 Arch Villain...................  "          "         "      96
76 Silver Samba...............  "          "         "      85
71 Valid Reason................      Best  RPR         86
70 Teak............................  RPR previous run   80
80 Beacon Lady...............    "         "         "      88
etc
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 30 Sep 13 17:21
possibly Aft but Southwell form isn't the most reliable as a lot of horses don't act on the surface and you often get exaggerated   margins between runners and CDM was proven on that surface and was a Medicean as well and they love the sand.

I agree with Judo in that it is very unlikely that the 1st 3 in that race all improved that much. I would say they are a few lb ahead of their marks but not a lot but we shall see on the day.
By:
aft
When: 30 Sep 13 18:08
As often the case, I suppose the reality lies probably somewhere in  the  middle ground.
I agree with you all that rationally the likelihood of such extraordinary improvement is vanishingly small, but I cannot dispel the feeling that something pretty unusual has occurred here!
By:
richardf
When: 02 Oct 13 11:37
Smoky Hill still in the Cadran at 5 day stage.....doesn't bode well for Newmarket :(
By:
Spirit
When: 04 Oct 13 11:38
smokey hill not in the betting for cadran,hope he is coming over
By:
judorick
When: 05 Oct 13 22:08
will be finalising the work on this but have it down to 6 or 7 already

sometime mid weeek finalise the short list, start betting after the draw is known
By:
aft
When: 07 Oct 13 11:07
Smoky Hill certainly looks like a potential blot on the handicap!
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Oct 13 12:06
Can someone post the 5 day decs?
By:
BJG
When: 07 Oct 13 12:21
Nt up yet - no major shocks tho - Ted Veale the most notable absentee, Drive Time, Aaim to Prosper too

Will put em up wen i av em easy to c+p
By:
judorick
When: 07 Oct 13 13:27
got it down to 2 now, waiting on the final decs and draw
By:
BJG
When: 07 Oct 13 13:29
1    32-121    Tiger Cliff49      4    9-10    Lady Cecil50    Tom Queally     104    102    110
2     203501    Oriental Fox21 4x      5    9-10    Mark Johnston40         104    106    115
3    24-711    Thecornishcockney226    4    9-8    John Ryan40         102    81    109
4     5-5136    Chiberta King29      7    9-8    Andrew Balding71    Oisin Murphy5     102    100    109
5     111-3    Pallasator35      4    9-6    Sir Mark Prescott Bt100         100    70    115
6     01-012    Domination48J      6    9-1    C Byrnes         95    75    110
7     234122    Mutual Regard39    4    9-0    Sir Mark Prescott Bt100         94    94    114
8     612-27    Earth Amber164    4    9-0    Nicky Henderson    Kieren Fallon     94    64    111
9     116160    Broxbourne21    4    9-0    Mark Johnston40         94    77    112
10     152111    Platinum35 4x    6    9-0    Philip Kirby60         94    91    114
11     10433d0    Highland Castle49    5    8-13    David Elsworth67         93    91    114
12     13632    Clowance Estate35    4    8-13    Roger Charlton50         93    95    116
13     7-3714    Smoky Hill27    4    8-11    M Delzangles         91    81    123
14     3-2132    Lieutenant Miller73      7    8-11    Nicky Henderson    Ryan Moore     91    84    113
15     343573    Brockwell21      4    8-11    Tom Dascombe62         91    105    114
16     926624    Moidore22    4    8-10    John Quinn33         90    101    116
17     1510/8    Big Easy116    6    8-10    Philip Hobbs         90    61    113
18     32100/    Mamlook783J    9    8-9    David Pipe         89    —    —
19    14333    Seaside Sizzler34      6    8-8    Ralph Beckett78         88    103    113
20     725604    Scatter Dice13    4    8-8    Mark Johnston40         88    98    116
21     5-7324    Waterclock39    4    8-8    Roger Charlton50    Joey Haynes5     88    100    113
22     083614    Cosimo de Medici21      6    8-7    Hughie Morrison43         87    96    108
23     2-8725    Albert Bridge21    5    8-7    Ralph Beckett78         87    106    116
24     163727    Cousin Khee35    6    8-7    Hughie Morrison43         87    106    111
25     031600    Nanton21    11    8-5    Jim Goldie48         85    96    113
26     515110    Poyle Thomas35    4    8-4    Ralph Beckett78    Martin Lane     84    100    111
27     413510    Eagle Rock21 4x    5    8-4    Tom Tate50         84    96    113
28     5500/9    Recession Proof34    7    8-2    John Quinn33         82    72    93
29    461674    Taglietelle81    4    8-0    Andrew Balding71         80    111    118
30     2-5708    Sohar45    5    8-0    James Toller100         80    102    119
31     716-85    Los Nadis22    9    7-13    Jim Goldie48         79    89    100
32     421820    Flashman22    4    7-13    Richard Fahey56         79    104    116
33     10455    Sign Manual25    4    7-12    Michael Bell70         78    95    114
34     035043    Wyborne21    4    7-12    Brian Ellison44         78    65    114
35     00-550    Cloudy Spirit70J      8    7-12    Andrew Hollinshead56         78    104    112
36     19431    Swinging Hawk14 4x    7    7-12    Ian Williams38         78    82    113
37     746047    High Office21    7    7-11    Richard Fahey56         77    95    111
38     122666    Merchant Of Dubai13    8    7-11    Jim Goldie48         77    93    110
39     374023    Jonny Delta14    6    7-11    Jim Goldie48         77    93    113
40    224416    Capellanus107    7    7-10    Brian Ellison44         76    94    109
41     320570    Aleksandar21    4    7-5    Jim Goldie48         71    66    106
42     07774-    Becausewecan351      7    7-1    Brian Ellison44         67    —    94
43    542528    Keep Kicking28    6    6-13    Simon Dow         65    60    100
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 07 Oct 13 15:30
I like domination but at a bigger price seaside sizzler
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Oct 13 15:38
cheers BJG.

I've had a bet on Moidore at 33/1. He may need the going slightly softer but his form from a handicapping p.o.v. looks fair to me. Gave 2lb to Well Sharp back in May and although he was beat 6 lengths, Well Sharp is now 20lb higher. Moidore is 10lb better off with Oriental Fox from their Newcastle run and he gave 13lb to Statutory who has just slammed Prescott's horse Mutual Regard (rated 95) by an easy 8 lengths at Pontefract. Whether i'm right or wrong 33/1 seems rather big to me.
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Oct 13 15:57
an easy 14 lengths, not 8.
By:
judorick
When: 08 Oct 13 08:30
Short list

Lieutenant Miller
Domination
Oriental Fox
Big Easy

Have backed Lieutenant Miller ante post so far, 12/1

waiting on the draw before adding more stakes
By:
aft
When: 08 Oct 13 10:02
As I have already noted, whatever you make of the merits of the Trial race, Oriental Fox undoubtedly put in a remarkable performance that day.
However, with a 5lb pull for a 5 length beating, Brockwell must have a real chance of turning the tables and yet is still twice the price!
I think he should be on your shortlist.
By:
judorick
When: 08 Oct 13 10:24
don't care what you think, it's not on my short list for very good reasons and I doubt it can win

I won't be backing Oriental Fox either, penalised horses have a bad record in the race
By:
aft
When: 08 Oct 13 10:33
I wouldn't suggest for one moment that you (or anyone else) should care what I think!
I am only expressing an opinion. It would not be much fun if we all agreed!
By:
Facts
When: 08 Oct 13 12:05
Put PALLASATOR down for this race, after his eye catching seasonal comeback in the Old Borough Cup.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 08 Oct 13 12:11
Jason Hart seems to be booked for Brockwell Aft, taking a useful 3lb off.  I've had a bit on.
By:
aft
When: 08 Oct 13 12:31
I am sure you won't regret it Stevie G - Must be a stonking each way bet at 25/1 if he doesn't get done by the draw.
By:
Spirit
When: 08 Oct 13 13:56
Smokey Hill and Lieutenant Miller e/w against the field for me,

good luck with your bets everyone
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