War Command

Are you on Maputo today, Stevie?

Figgis, you should trust your instincts. This has to be a lay at the prices today. The record of Coventry winners when attempting to follow up here is dire. Only Fasiliyev has managed it in recent memory. This track is 7 lengths quicker than Ascot and it's usually a small field compared to the cavalry charge of the Coventry. This horse needs a strong gallop to me. On debut you'd sear he needed a step up to a mile, so well was he staying on at the end of 7f. The Coventry was a dire renewal and, like you say, he was hugely flattered. My figure was perfectly ok but ordinary for the race. He'll be held up in last and there surely won't be that much pace on. I think Sudirman and Big Time offer plausible opposition - the Railway has proved a much better trial than the Coventry. I'm by no means saying he can't win, but I think he's worth a reasonable sized lay.

Howellsy, yes you're right really, strictly on value terms I probably should be laying him. I have him only a couple of pounds higher than Ambiance and Sudirman. The big problem with those two, though, is they've been on the go, I wouldn't be confident of what kind of race the Channon horse will run and I think it's more likely Sudirman will be a bit below par, possibly peaked last time having a hard race. WC will more than likely be on top form. Ideally he'll put up another visually impressive but flattering performance and there will be even more value in opposing him in future.

wd howellsy

you never know figgis he might end up overpriced in the future now and you'll end up backing him.

Don't think so in this case, Stevie. I had him as a below average Coventry winner, thought his best chance of adding to that win was early on, the further in the season we get it's likely he'll get left further behind.

ah fillies hcap just 0.7s slower so will go and have look into it and see what figures i get

WD layers,i recall a conversation i had with Figgis(on the RPR ascot figs i believe ) that war command was a lay at short odds next time he ran,sometimes things do work out.lol

I have Slade Power spot on his July Cup figure, Sudirman improving 6lbs, Big Time 8lbs and War Command spot on his Coventry Stakes winning figure. It was an up to scratch renewal, but if anyone still thinks War Command is top class then they'll also have to rate the first two higher than seems likely or keep the faith that he was below par today.

Has he ever worked particularly well, though? His price in the Coventry doesn't suggest he'd been impressing them too much, whereas Henrythenavigator was a well backed fav. Not that that is always an indicator of ability but add that to the moderate winning time of the Coventry and his run today given that he'd been well rested beforehand, I'm still a doubter.

It's also worth pointing out that his sire (War Front) has a good record at Ascot (Declaration of War has the same sire and obviously won the Queen Anne at Ascot as well) so the sand based turf may also have flattered him that day. Hope you are keeping well Figgis, good shout above and re Moonlight Cloud.

Thanks, Swagger, looking forward to York already.

It's probably right that he won't progress enough to win a Guineas, but often NOT having the speed to win a 6f race in mid season is a sign of a miler. Henrythenav and Canford Cliffs are two recent examples of horses who apparently disappointed over sprint trips after the Coventry. Both were available at huge prices for the Guineas over the winter. Ok, Cliffs lost but ended up the best miler of his generation (arguably better than Makfi). I just don't know where people get the idea he's got physical problems. He tried his best yesterday, and ran a mighty race in defeat, giving a substantial start to two sprinters on a speed favouring track. As I keep saying, have a look at the record of Coventry winners at 6 furlongs over the last 20 years. Then it might make sense and you'll stop making excuses where none need to be made. It's just bad placement by connections, a misunderstanding of what it takes to win a Phoenix or a not unfamiliar misinterpretation of what type of horse they've got.

Harry C

Tell you what Harry. Lay me a small bet on WC for the 2000 gns at say 16.0. Say for £20 just to make it interesting. Its 17.0 with WH/PP so you could even hedge  it and make money. Can't say fairer than that.

Ped, it's a bit problematic translating my lower scale, but I can say I have it as an average 0-65 handicap winning figure.

Sassaway only carried 10lbs less and just 0.71 secs slower than Slade Power.

How many lbs does that convert on your scale that the 71 rated Sassaway has run slower than Slade Power?

Ped, just to clarify, using the official scale the difference between an older 70 rated sprinter and a top sprinter like Lethal Force is 50lbs. In all my years of analysing times I've never seen this translated in terms of speed, the truth is the time difference is more like half of that. This is not due to some quirk of the pace of the race, it just doesn't happen. Using speed figures pound for pound on the official scale will lead to errors, in my view. I say in my view but I'm absolutely sure of it as I've seen the difference in results.

On my scale I have Sassaway on a pretty low rating for the win, as I say more like a 0-65 winner, but they do have some pretty poor sprint handicaps over there and it was only a fillies handicap. I have the Phoenix as up to scratch, in fact slightly higher than recent average runnings, which have been moderate. It's not a race I'd get carried away with, though, as I see plenty of similar 2yo sprint performances in a season, very few of them go on to do much after.

think war command will be much better over the longer trips in future, pedigree suggests this also.